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High Level Retail Market Analysis

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High Level Retail Market Analysis JULY 2017 HIGH LEVEL RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS Prepared for the Town of High Level, Mackenzie County Prepared by Cushing Terrell Architecture Inc. RETAIL Market Analysis Suite 216, 9525 201 Street | Langley, B.C. Canada | V1M 2M3 | 604.888.6680 p | www.CushingTerrell.com Table of CONTENTS PREFACE .....................................................................................................................................................................i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Scope of Study & Project Background ......................................................................................................................1 1.2 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Sources of Information ....................................................................................................................................................1 2.0 LOCATION CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Local & Regional Context ...............................................................................................................................................5 2.3 Transportation Context ...................................................................................................................................................7 3.0 RETAIL TRADE AREA ................................................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................11 3.2 Population Projections ..................................................................................................................................................13 3.3 Age Profile ..........................................................................................................................................................................17 3.4 Household Income Profile ............................................................................................................................................17 3.5 Educational Attainment ................................................................................................................................................19 2.6 Retail Spending Profile ..................................................................................................................................................19 4.0 RETAIL SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................25 4.2 High Level Retail Market ...............................................................................................................................................25 4.3 Retail Vacancy ...................................................................................................................................................................25 4.4 Retail Inventory by Category .......................................................................................................................................31 4.5 Retail Inventory by NAICS .............................................................................................................................................31 4.6 Retail Space Per Capita ..................................................................................................................................................31 5.0 RETAIL DEMAND ...................................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................35 5.2 Retail Floor Space Demand ..........................................................................................................................................35 5.2.1 Demand Based on Market Shares of Total Trade Area .......................................................................................35 5.2.2 Demand Based on Market Shares of PTA and STA North Only.......................................................................37 5.3 Developing Successful Retail ......................................................................................................................................37 5.4 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................43 Table of CONTENTS APPENDICES A Detailed Retail Inventory ..............................................................................................................................................45 TABLES ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3.1 Trade Area Demographic Summary .........................................................................................................................14 3.2 Trade Area Population Projections Summary 2017 - 2022 ...............................................................................15 3.3 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown ..................................................................................................................15 3.4 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ...........................................................................................................18 3.5 Trade Area Retail Spending 2017 ...............................................................................................................................20 4.1 Retail Market Snapshot ..................................................................................................................................................25 4.2 High Level Retail Inventory Summary ....................................................................................................................27 4.3 Retail Inventory by NAICS .............................................................................................................................................28 5.1 High Level 2017 Estimated Retail Market Share & Sales Productivity ..........................................................36 5.2 High Level 2017 Estimated Retail Market Share & Sales Productivity based on PTA and STA North ONLY ........................................................................................................................................................................36 5.3 High Level 2022 Targeted Retail Market Share & Resulting Demand Forecast ........................................39 5.4 High Level 2022 Targeted Retail Market Share & Resulting Demand Forecast based on PTA and STA North ONLY ........................................................................................................................................................................41 FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................................... 2.1 15-45-90 Minute Drive Time from Junction of Hwy 35 & Hwy 58 west ........................................................4 2.2 High Level AADT Traffic Counts ...................................................................................................................................6 2.3 High Level Zoning By-Law .............................................................................................................................................8 2.4 Bison Crossing Concept Plan .........................................................................................................................................9 3.1 High Level Retail Trade Area ........................................................................................................................................12 3.2 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown ..................................................................................................................16 3.3 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ...........................................................................................................19 3.4 Aggregate Retail Spending by Trade Area .............................................................................................................20 3.5 Trade Area Retail Spending Summary .....................................................................................................................22
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