JULY 2017 HIGH LEVEL RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS Prepared for the Town of High Level, Mackenzie County Prepared by Cushing Terrell Architecture Inc. RETAIL Market Analysis Suite 216, 9525 201 Street | Langley, B.C. Canada | V1M 2M3 | 604.888.6680 p | www.CushingTerrell.com Table of CONTENTS PREFACE .....................................................................................................................................................................i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Scope of Study & Project Background ......................................................................................................................1 1.2 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Sources of Information ....................................................................................................................................................1 2.0 LOCATION CONTEXT ..................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Local & Regional Context ...............................................................................................................................................5 2.3 Transportation Context ...................................................................................................................................................7 3.0 RETAIL TRADE AREA ................................................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................11 3.2 Population Projections ..................................................................................................................................................13 3.3 Age Profile ..........................................................................................................................................................................17 3.4 Household Income Profile ............................................................................................................................................17 3.5 Educational Attainment ................................................................................................................................................19 2.6 Retail Spending Profile ..................................................................................................................................................19 4.0 RETAIL SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................25 4.2 High Level Retail Market ...............................................................................................................................................25 4.3 Retail Vacancy ...................................................................................................................................................................25 4.4 Retail Inventory by Category .......................................................................................................................................31 4.5 Retail Inventory by NAICS .............................................................................................................................................31 4.6 Retail Space Per Capita ..................................................................................................................................................31 5.0 RETAIL DEMAND ...................................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................35 5.2 Retail Floor Space Demand ..........................................................................................................................................35 5.2.1 Demand Based on Market Shares of Total Trade Area .......................................................................................35 5.2.2 Demand Based on Market Shares of PTA and STA North Only.......................................................................37 5.3 Developing Successful Retail ......................................................................................................................................37 5.4 Summary & Implications ...............................................................................................................................................43 Table of CONTENTS APPENDICES A Detailed Retail Inventory ..............................................................................................................................................45 TABLES ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3.1 Trade Area Demographic Summary .........................................................................................................................14 3.2 Trade Area Population Projections Summary 2017 - 2022 ...............................................................................15 3.3 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown ..................................................................................................................15 3.4 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ...........................................................................................................18 3.5 Trade Area Retail Spending 2017 ...............................................................................................................................20 4.1 Retail Market Snapshot ..................................................................................................................................................25 4.2 High Level Retail Inventory Summary ....................................................................................................................27 4.3 Retail Inventory by NAICS .............................................................................................................................................28 5.1 High Level 2017 Estimated Retail Market Share & Sales Productivity ..........................................................36 5.2 High Level 2017 Estimated Retail Market Share & Sales Productivity based on PTA and STA North ONLY ........................................................................................................................................................................36 5.3 High Level 2022 Targeted Retail Market Share & Resulting Demand Forecast ........................................39 5.4 High Level 2022 Targeted Retail Market Share & Resulting Demand Forecast based on PTA and STA North ONLY ........................................................................................................................................................................41 FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................................... 2.1 15-45-90 Minute Drive Time from Junction of Hwy 35 & Hwy 58 west ........................................................4 2.2 High Level AADT Traffic Counts ...................................................................................................................................6 2.3 High Level Zoning By-Law .............................................................................................................................................8 2.4 Bison Crossing Concept Plan .........................................................................................................................................9 3.1 High Level Retail Trade Area ........................................................................................................................................12 3.2 Trade Area Population Age Breakdown ..................................................................................................................16 3.3 Trade Area Household Income Breakdown ...........................................................................................................19 3.4 Aggregate Retail Spending by Trade Area .............................................................................................................20 3.5 Trade Area Retail Spending Summary .....................................................................................................................22