African Union Update Paper

Topic A: Addressing Nigeria’s Rising Birth Rate

Five years ago, the UN World Populations Prospects: The 2012 Revision, predicted Nigeria’s population would overtake the United States’ by the year 2050, replacing it as the third most populous country, surpassed only by long-time forerunners China and India1. Currently, Nigeria sits at seventh in terms of population size, but possesses an alarmingly high growth rate of about 2.4 percent. In comparison, the U.S. population growth rate is estimated to be at 0.8 percent.2 On a global scale, the UN predicts that over half of the population growth to take place until 2050 will occur in the continent of Africa.3 Evidently, Nigeria is not alone in its rapid boom; similarly high growth rates are present in nations such as Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger,

Angola, and Uganda, to name a few.4 Due to the high degree of growth, as well as the widespread poverty extant in many of these nations, the current predictions for the future are alarmingly unsustainable, and will eventually strain economies and resources on a global scale if left unchecked.

Family Planning 2020 is a global organization which works to push forward the UN

Secretary-General’s Strategy for Women and Children's Health, created as a result of the UN

London Summit in 2012. By working with NGOs such as Marie Stopes Nigeria to make available safe, effective, and affordable contraceptives to women in nations such as Nigeria, FP2020 aims to ebb population growth in African nations.5 While it seems that the FP2020’s goals are beneficial, its

1 “World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision.” United Nations, United Nations, 17 June 2013, www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2012-revision.html. 2 “The World Factbook.” Central Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2002.html. 3 “World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision.” United Nations, United Nations, 17 June 2013, www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2012-revision.html. 4 “The World Factbook.” Central Intelligence Agency, Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2002.html.

5 “About Us.” Family Planning 2020, United Nations Foundation,

reception in Nigeria has been lukewarm at best. The surprising resistance FP2020 has encountered in Nigeria can be attributed primarily its clash in principles with deeply-rooted Nigerian culture.

While the grasp of extremist group Boko Haram, which labeled artificial contraceptive methods as a product of infidel learning, is significantly weaker in Nigeria than it used to be, contraception remains a controversial topic. There are beliefs that contraception is preventing Nigeria from prospering. In poorer parts of the nation especially, people tend to believe that having more children results in economic benefit, as a high number of children is important in a highly agrarian society with a relatively high infant mortality rate. Politically speaking, leading figures are afraid to discourage childbirth due to these deep-rooted sentiments of the people.6

Another contributor to Nigeria’s lack of contraception usage is the lack of distribution of modern contraceptive measures. Nigeria’s ailing health sector is oftentimes hard-pressed to reach parts of its population. Even those willing and seeking to use contraceptives are often stymied by the simple logistical struggle of obtaining them, as hospitals can be many miles away. For longer-term, surgically implemented methods, availability is an even larger concern, as in many cases the existing infrastructure and budget is insufficient, precluding affordable operations.7 The FP2020 plan for

Nigeria has the potential to effectively address these types of issues; as long as ideology is not a problem, its annual 600 million dollar budget can be used to facilitate the infrastructural and financial requirements to make widespread contraceptive availability possible.

www.familyplanning2020.org/microsite/about-us. 6“The problems of family planning in Nigeria.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 29 Apr. 2017, www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21721325-faith-and-tradition-favour-high-fertility- education-pulls-other-way. 7 Shelton, J. D., and C. Finkle. “Leading With LARCs in Nigeria: The Stars Are Aligned to Expand Effective Family Planning Services Decisively.” Global Health: Science and Practice, vol. 4, no. 2, 2016, pp. 179–185., doi:10.9745/ghsp-d-16-00135.

While FP2020 cannot and does not wish to directly change Nigerian ideals of giving birth to many children, studies have shown that increased education of women tends to result in lower birth rates,8 and so part of its plan is to bolster education of women.9 This indirect approach of changing popular ideology is less controversial for the people of Nigeria than simply the discouragement of childbirth, which would directly go against the nation’s prominent ideals.

All in all, the FP2020 strives to rein in birth rates despite the cultural friction such measures will inevitably cause. While it is difficult to gauge how effective the organization as a whole has been, progress can be seen in the many efforts being taken to improve contraceptive availability and usage in Nigeria as a result of the FP2020 plan, such as its aims to train 1000 healthcare providers on methods of birth control, made possible by trainers supplied by DKT Nigeria.10 Hopefully, along with the many NGOs involved with the issue, FP2020 can positively affect contraception usage in

Nigeria along with the other African countries struggling to provide for its rapidly rising population.

Topic A: Ramifications of Urbanization

The advent of globalization has introduced a wide range of systemic problems to the African

Union. These problems are exacerbated by the meteoric rise in population that is due to richer diets, high fertility rates, and a decrease in contraceptive usage. Global urbanization will lead to larger percentages of the global population struggling with obesity, crime, improper infrastructure, and sustainability issues.

The United Nations reported that over the next thirty-five years, continuing urbanization and population growth trends will add 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban population, with

8 “Women's Status and Fertility Rates.” World Population, www.worldpopulationhistory.org/womens-status-and-fertility-rates/. 9 “The problems of family planning in Nigeria.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 29 Apr. 2017, www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21721325-faith-and-tradition-favour-high-fertility-education-pulls- other-way. 10 “DKT Aims to train 1000 healthcare providers in Lydia IUD training in Nigeria.” Family Planning 2020, United Nations Foundation, www.familyplanning2020.org/articles/21360.

nearly 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.11 Lagos, Nigeria is a key example of African urbanization. At the turn of the century, Lagos had a modest population of roughly 7.2 million. Under urban planning rubrics it was deemed “moderately fragile,” having some cause for concern but on the whole manageable by the current law enforcement and economic output. By

2015, Lagos’ population had more than doubled, ballooning to 17.9 million. The city had also grown to cover more land by this time, but even so, the population density increased, indicating that overpopulation had started to become a problem. Projections indicate that by 2050 the population of Lagos will double again. Cities such as Lagos are known as “fragile.” “Fragile” cities suffer from several problems either stemming from or intensified by overpopulation such as high unemployment and crime rates. In Mogadishu, Somalia, for instance, the unemployment rate is 66%.

It is the most fragile city in the world according to urban planning expert Robert Muggah, Research

Director of the Igarapé Institute.12

Similar situations are blossoming across the African continent as high unemployment, crime, and violence, in conjunction with rapidly-growing populations in urban areas creates cities that are vulnerable to economic and social collapse.

Even during a period of global growth, African countries lead the world in fertility rates.

Niger, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Chad, Angola, Uganda, Nigeria,

Mozambique, are just a few of the countries with a fertility rate above 5. Nigeria's fertility rate has fallen over the past 60 years, yet it is still at 5.4 children per woman. Demographers say the ideal number for keeping populations steady is 2.2 children per woman.13

11 Peter Diamandis, “The Future of Cities,” Huffington Post, December 18, 2017, https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-future-of-cities_us_5a3848c0e4b0578d1beb720e 12 Chris Weller, “Some African countries are urbanizing before they industrialize – and it could be devastating for future populations,” Business Insider, October 25, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/urbanization-in-africa-latin-america- is-putting-populations-at-risk-2017-10 13 “Fertility rate, total (births per woman),” The World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/?year_high_desc=true

In addition to economic strife the combined findings of UNICEF, the World Health

Organization and the World Bank showed that in 2016, Africa was home to a quarter of the world’s overweight children. While historically several of these governments have struggled with ending hunger this new problem subverts the original crisis. An increasingly sedentary lifestyle, fast food chains, street vendors, the increasing affordability of passive diversions such as television or video games, and a fixation of office jobs all contribute to this auxiliary problem. Obesity in China could cost $724 billion in medical treatment by 2030. This is a massive expense that will soon hit African countries as well. Such diseases are an added burden on countries already struggling to manage primary health care needs.14

In a time where globalization is bringing the world closer together and urbanization is closing the gap between developing countries and their more established counterparts, overpopulation proves the source of several surprising problems. These range from obesity in historically hunger-stricken areas to having unemployment terrible so high that having a job is less likely than not. Overpopulation seems to be the silent instigator of several systemic socio-economic issues.

Topic B: Corruption in the Ugandan Government

In December 2017, Uganda’s parliament voted to approve a constitutional change that lifts the age limit for the presidency.15 This law sets the stage for a president to be able to rule for life; it enables President Yoweri Museveni to run for an unprecedented sixth term. The concern lies not only with the implications of the law itself, but also with the corrupt ways it was achieved.

14 Asit K. Biswas, “Developing countries will get sick before they get rich,” Quartz, December 5, 2017, https://qz.com/1147184/obesity-will-rise-in-asia-africa-cities-due-to-urbanization-globalization-and-industrialization-of- food-supply/ 15 Biryabarema, Elias. “Uganda Seeks Constitutional Change That Would Let Museveni Extend Rule.” US News, 14 July 2017, www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-07-14/uganda-seeks-constitutional-change-that-would-let- museveni-extend-rule.

President Museveni first seized power at the head of a rebel army in Uganda in 1986 and has led the country ever since.16 While he was admired for helping to restore stability after two cruel dictators and overthrowing an insurgency known for injuring civilians and kidnapping children, criticism has mounted over extensive corruption, suppression of the political opposition, and a poor human rights record.

This is the second time a law has favored Museveni’s occupancy, the first being the scrapping of the two-term limit in 2005.17 The amendment, organized by Museveni’s governing

National Resistance Movement (NRM), led to tumultuous scenes in parliament and beyond. The attempts to lift the age limit catalyzed protests in several sectors of the public, including civil society activists and opposition groups. Furthermore, the process of parliamentary debate on the bill was described as a “military coup,” and protestors of the bill were often attacked, killed, or otherwise silenced.18 Although an overwhelming majority of lawmakers supported the bill, passing 315 to 62, most Ugandans opposed it. In fact, a September poll established that 75 percent of respondents wanted to keep the age limit at 75, a number set by Uganda’s 1995 Constitution.19

Executive director of the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies, Godber Tumushabe, expressed to reporters that the government’s insistence on pushing the amendment forward shows that they do not have the interests of the citizens at heart.20 “This government no longer works for the people. It works for itself and President Museveni. What Museveni wants is what becomes law,”

16 “Uganda Country Profile.” BBC News, BBC, 21 Sept. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14107906. 17 Full Text of "Uganda : a Country Study", archive.org/stream/ugandacountrystu00byrn_0/ugandacountrystu00byrn_0_djvu.txt. 18 Moore, Jina. “Uganda Lifts an Age Limit, Paving the Way for a President for Life.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 Dec. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/world/africa/uganda-president-museveni-age- limit.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fafrica. 19 Moore, Jina. “Uganda Lifts an Age Limit, Paving the Way for a President for Life.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 Dec. 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/world/africa/uganda-president-museveni-age- limit.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fafrica. 20 “NYUMBANI.” Uganda: Age Limit Bill Lined up,Why Now?, 5 July 2017, issaahmedkhamis.blogspot.com/2017/07/uganda-age-limit-bill-lined-upwhy-now.html.

stated Tumushabe.21 Indeed, there was a constant determination to manipulate the Constitution through gerrymandering and using state resources to win every parliament race in order to pack a sizeable majority in the House.

Grand corruption remains a serious problem in Uganda and in many other nations in the region. Also, the issues of election transparency, voter fraud, bribes, and poll credibility run rampant in Museveni’s regime, and the problem becomes increasingly complex as it involves elected officials.22 The constitutional change that lifts the presidency age in Uganda was conceivably achieved through illegitimate means; the passing of this new law reinforces the point that reform is needed in order to strengthen and bring further transparency to civil institutions and to ultimately ensure a more democratic culture.

Topic B: Corporate Influence in South Africa

South Africa’s biggest corruption scandal involving President Jacob Zuma and the ruling party is assumed to be the biggest case since the end of apartheid. This scandal has severely impacted South

African domestic affairs by sending the nation into a brief recession and putting President Zuma’s presidency into question. Furthermore, the scandal has also entangled international firms as it includes illicit dealings with state owned and multinational companies including German software giant SAP and US companies such as McKinsey and KPMG.23

The scandal revolves around the President Zuma’s close associates, the Gupta family of Indian immigrant businessman, who have been accused of influencing cabinet appointments by leveraging their friendship with the president in order to land government contracts worth millions of dollars.

21 Kiggundu, Edris. “Uganda: Age Limit Bill Now Gazetted.” AllAfrica.com, 3 July 2017, allafrica.com/stories/201707030439.html. 22 “Uganda MPs Reject 'Bribe' Linked to Age-Limit Bill.” The East African, 2 Nov. 2017, www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Uganda-MPs-reject-bribe-linked-to-age-limit-Bill-/2558-4167282-urh8o8z/index.html. 23 Conway-Smith, Erin. 2017. ABC News. 12 7. Accessed 12 24, 2017. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/global firms-snared-south-africas-corruption-scandal-51759881.

Both Zuma and the Gupta’s have denied the allegations, but the African National Congress has an investigation into the ‘corporate capture’ of the government.24

The extent of the involvement of the Gupta family was exposed by the leak of thousands of emails from a Gupta company server and verified by South African journalists. One allegation is that

Gupta family raided a fund for rural dairies to pay two million USD for a wedding. Another allegation states that Ajay Gupta offered the finance minister job and 45 million USD to Mcebisi Jonas.25 Despite the overwhelming evidence to support these allegations, no action has been taken.

In an effort to derail President Zuma’s government, civil society groups and the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, have pressed for action outside South Africa, which has been damaging for international firms that did business with the Gupta family.26 Bell Pottinger,

Britain’s largest public relations consultancy, was revealed to be running a highly inflammatory campaign in South Africa for a Gupta owned company. SAP has admitted having paid kickbacks 6.4 million USD to a Gupta-owned company to win government contracts.27

In light of recent revelations, the Gupta family has been abandoned by all South African businessmen and their company was recently delisted from the stock exchange. All of South African banks have closed their accounts. The African National Congress is also investigating global firms that have aided the Guptas in their schemes. It has also been revealed that the Gupta family has funded political battles within the ruling African National Congress.

24 News, BBC. 2017. South Africa's President Jacob Zuma - a profile. 8 8. Accessed 12 24, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-17450447. 25 Conway-Smith, Erin. 2017. ABC News. 12 7. Accessed 12 24, 2017. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/global-firms-snared-south-africas-corruption-scandal-51759881. 26 fox25boston. 2017. Global firms snared in South Africa's corruption scandal. 12 13. Accessed 12 25, 2017. http://www.fox25boston.com/news/global-firms-snared-in-south-africas-corruption-scandal/663279191. 27 Conway-Smith, Erin. 2017. ABC News. 12 7. Accessed 12 24, 2017. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/global-firms-snared-south-africas-corruption-scandal-51759881.

The recent controversy, although the biggest has not been the only legal woe for President

Zuma. President Zuma’s tenure has been entangled in corruption including corruption in a multi- billion-dollar arms deal in 1999.28 He was charged with 786 counts of corruption in 2016 by the South

African Courts but have since been appealed. He has now survived eight votes of no confidence in the parliament. It is believed that his government is coming under extreme pressure from all sides and it is only a matter of time before he is forced to step down.

This is an example of extreme and negative event regarding corruption that is rampant in

African nations. Many African nations have been involved in corruption scandals at a governmental level, leaving a strong impact on their economies. These corruption scandals have undermined government economic policies for private gain of businessmen and government officials. Moreover, many of these corruption scandals have been linked to violence and human rights violations. Of these scandals, some have been taken to court, some have been investigated and most scandals remain unresolved.

28 News, BBC. 2017. South Africa's President Jacob Zuma - a profile. 8 8. Accessed 12 24, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-17450447.