Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, May 8

Headlines:

 With Fragile Coalition, Netanyahu Seeks to Expand Cabinet  Netanyahu Faces Dissent From Within Likud  Herzog: “New Government is Dangerous, I Will Not Join It”  Significant Achievements Obtained by Bayit Yehudi  Ban Ki-moon: “Time for Renewing Negotiations w. Palestinians”  Abbas: “Israel Must Choose Between Settlements and Peace”  Joint List MK: “Demolition of Arab Homes is Declaration of War”  US Senate Asserts Right to Review Final Iran Nuclear Deal

Commentary:  Washington Post: “Netanyahu’s Shaky Base”  By David Ignatius  Washington Post: “Will Israel Miss its Moment?”  By Fareed Zakaria

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor

News Excerpts May 8, 2015

Ha’aretz With Fragile Coalition, Netanyahu Seeks to Expand Cabinet In a move that underscores the fragility of his new 61-member coalition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to have the Knesset repeal a law limiting the size of the cabinet even before informing members of his Likud party which jobs they will have in the new government. “Netanyahu is afraid the disappointed ones won’t show up for the vote,” a senior Likud member explained. “In the vote to expand the cabinet, Netanyahu must have 61 supporters, because otherwise, it isn’t possible to change the existing law. In this situation, every disappointed MK who leaves to go to the bathroom can sabotage the government’s functioning.” Currently, the law limits the cabinet to 18 ministers. Netanyahu plans to have the Knesset abolish that ceiling on Monday.

Ynet News Netanyahu Faces Dissent From Within Likud After agreeing a coalition deal with Bayit Yehudi and announcing the formation of a government with a razor-thin majority, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may face dissent from within his own ranks on Thursday. In the afternoon, Likud MK Ayoob Kara told the Knesset Channel: "If I am not made a minister – there will be surprises." MK Kara emphasized that Israel's Druze population was not only a resource for the IDF but part of the fabric of the state. "The Druze were not born solely to make war, they were also born to sit at the cabinet table. And a government will not be formed that does not have a Druze minister – We want this to pass a clear message that we are a part of this country."

Channel 2 News Herzog: “New Government is Dangerous, I Will Not Join It” Netanyahu hinted several times he intends to expand the narrow government he managed to set up last night, but the chairman of the Zionist Union, Isaac (Buji) Herzog, firmly rejects the political assessments regarding the possibility of his party joining the government. In his interview he makes clear he has no intention of being part of Netanyahu’s coalition, and he calls on the PM to return his mandate to the President. “I will lead the opposition,” clarifies Herzog. “I have no intention of joining this government. I have said it once and again, and I will repeat it in English and in Italian, if I have to.” “This is a dangerous government,” he added. “I would like to suggest to Netanyahu to go to the President and return his mandate. I can form a different government, a better one.”

Jerusalem Post Significant Achievements Obtained by Bayit Yehudi Following the bitter and rancorous coalition negotiations between Bayit Yehudi and the Likud, details of the deal began to emerge on Thursday. As well as obtaining the Education Ministry for party chairman MK Naftali Bennett, the Justice Ministry for MK Ayelet Shaked, and the Agriculture Ministry for MK Uri Ariel, the party also received the deputy defense minister position, which is likely to be filled by MK Rabbi Eli Ben-Dahan, while MK Bezalel Smotrich will likely become deputy speaker. The party also gained the chairmanship of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee.

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Israel Radio News Ban Ki-moon: “Time for Renewing Negotiations w. Palestinians” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that after the swearing-in of the new government in Israel, he would examine with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu the practical options for renewing the negotiations on a two-state solution. In a statement issued by Secretary-General Ban, he expressed deep concern regarding the plan to build another 900 housing units beyond the Green Line in East Jerusalem.

Ha’aretz Abbas: “Israel Must Choose Between Settlements and Peace” The Palestinians have slammed Israel's new government, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed a coalition deal Thursday with Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett. The new coalition will have to choose between settlements and peace talks, said Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas's spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh. "The Palestinians will continue to briskly peruse its activity on the international stage, by joining international organizations and drafting new proposed resolutions for the UN Security Council, especially in light of the right-wing-settler character of the government," he said.

Jerusalem Post Joint List MK: “Demolition of Arab Homes is Declaration of War” Some 50,000 Israeli homes are at risk for demolition by the state, Joint List and Balad MK Basel Ghattas told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. That “would be like destroying an entire city like Nazareth – it would be a declaration of war,” he said. “If there is not an immediate halt of these criminal acts of destruction, the situation among the Arab population would be on the verge of explosion,” Ghattas warned. “Instead of solving the housing shortage in Arab society, the government is destroying homes under the guise of [demolishing] ‘illegal construction,’” he charged. The Balad MK called for the rebuilding of homes that are destroyed and demanded that demolitions be frozen until the governmental authorities provide the necessary permits to legalize the structures.

Times of Israel US Senate Asserts Right to Review Final Iran Nuclear Deal The US Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation giving Congress the right to review and perhaps even reject any nuclear deal with Iran, the culmination of weeks of wrangling over how to hold Tehran to account. The bill passed 98-1 after overcoming initial objections from President Barack Obama. It comes amid intense negotiations between world powers and Iran on a deal intended to prevent Tehran's development of a nuclear weapon in exchange for lifting of economic sanctions. "We worked hard to create a great bipartisan balance," said the measure's chief author, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob Corker. Republican Tom Cotton was the lone member voting in opposition to legislation that would give lawmakers at least 30 days to review any final Iran accord. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives, where it has the support of the chamber's Republican leaders. According to White House spokesman Eric Schultz, Obama "said he would sign the legislation in its current form."

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Washington Post – May 8, 2015 Netanyahu’s Shaky Base

By David Ignatius  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a dominating political figure in the United States this year, seemingly invincible as he hurled thunderbolts at President Obama and other adversaries. But here in Israel, not so much.  After winning a narrow election victory in March, Netanyahu formed a fragile government late Wednesday with a bare one-vote margin in parliament. Israeli analysts, left and right, are questioning whether the government can last long. Netanyahu said Thursday that he had been leaving the foreign-minister position vacant for Labor Party leader Isaac Herzog, in hopes of broadening his base, but Herzog rejected the offer.  “Bibi has no agenda, other than challenging President Obama on Iran,” argues Aluf Benn, editor of the liberal newspaper Haaretz, using the prime minister’s nickname. One sign of Netanyahu’s problems was the last-minute defection by his previous foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman.  Netanyahu has been such a strong voice in the United States that it’s easy to overlook his political problems back home. But these difficulties were highlighted by a range of analysts during a conference here this week organized by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and Harvard University’s Belfer Center, where I’m a fellow.  Israeli analysts note that Netanyahu’s congressional speech blasting the Iran deal, which was so prominent and polarizing in the United States, didn’t matter much in the Israeli election. He benefited from a late surge among conservative voters who were scared by his election-day warning of a massive Arab turnout. But these gains seem to have come partly at the expense of other conservative parties.  Yehuda Ben-Meir, a conservative former politician, argued in an analysis published by the INSS that Netanyahu’s core bloc of right-wing and religious parties has actually been shrinking, falling from 65 parliament seats in 2009 to 61 in 2013 and 57 this year.  “Benn contends that the real winners in March were two minority groups that stand outside the Zionist mainstream, the ultra-Orthodox and the Israeli Arabs. He worries because these groups don’t generally support the Israeli military.  To bolster his frail government, Netanyahu tried to woo his chief rival, Herzog, into a broad “national unity government.” The two are said to have discussed such a pact over the past few weeks, but Netanyahu wasn’t willing to offer concessions on the Palestinian issue that Herzog wanted. Netanyahu instead opted to lean further right by allying with Naftali Bennett’s party, which adamantly opposes a Palestinian state. That chilled this week’s negotiations with Herzog, but the idea of a broad coalition may return.  The U.S.-Israeli relationship is likely to be rocky for the remainder of Obama’s presidency, assuming that Netanyahu continues his drive to scuttle the Iran agreement. This tension

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contrasts sharply with the U.S.-Arab fence-mending that is expected to take place next week at Camp David when Obama discusses with Gulf leaders a common strategy to curb Iranian meddling. It’s a peculiar reversal of roles, in which the Gulf Arabs (who also criticize the Iran nuclear deal) are becoming the responsible and conciliatory opposition, while Netanyahu, who leads a country that is traditionally the United States’ closest Mideast ally, remains at loggerheads with Obama.  Many Israeli analysts worry that the friction with Obama is eroding bipartisan support in the United States for Israel. But it’s not a zero-sum game: An obvious potential beneficiary is the Republican Party. With Netanyahu’s help, the Republicans may be attempting a realignment that seeks to convince pro-Israel voters that their natural home is the GOP, rather than a Democratic Party that keeps pressuring Israel for concessions. The GOP pulled off a similar realignment a generation ago in persuading white Southerners to abandon the Democrats.  A sign that conservative Americans and Israelis are seeking such a realignment would be pledges by GOP presidential candidates to work with Netanyahu to overturn the Iran deal. Obama, too, could drive a political wedge if he pushes for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that codifies the “parameters” of the peace deal that Secretary of State John F. Kerry tried unsuccessfully to negotiate last year.  Netanyahu’s camp hopes for a new opening with Gulf Arab states that share mistrust of Iran. A top Israeli official argues that the Jewish state is the only reliable partner for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in a region dominated by Iran-backed Shiite radicals, a Turkish-led Muslim Brotherhood bloc, and jihadists of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. An Israeli-Arab alliance against Iran is intriguing. But like much else about Netanyahu’s fledgling government, it’s more an aspiration than a practical agenda. Netanyahu, so potent in the United States, has a shaky base at home.

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Washington Post – May 7, 2015 Will Israel miss its moment?

BY Fareed Zakaria  Israel’s new coalition government, formed with the slimmest possible majority in its parliament, likely means that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will act even more cautiously than he has in the past. This is a tragedy, because Israel faces an extraordinary strategic opportunity.  At first glance, it might seem absurd to speak hopefully about opportunities for Israel. The Middle East is in turmoil, Islamic radicalism is invading once-stable lands, Hezbollah and Hamas are active, and the Iranian nuclear danger persists. Add to this the repulsive anti- Semitism that is on the rise around the world — tolerated and encouraged in too many Muslim communities — and it looks like a very dangerous time for the Jewish state. That is what Netanyahu implied when explaining to NBC’s Andrea Mitchell why he had backtracked on his support for a Palestinian state. “What has changed,” he said, “is the reality.”  Reality has changed, but look beyond the headlines. On closer examination, one can see that it has changed dramatically in Israel’s favor.  First, there is the disappearance of the Arab threat. From its first day in existence, Israel has faced the danger of extinction by Arab armies. This is the threat against which the Jewish state has planned, armed and trained for most of its national life. Today, it’s gone.  The armies from Israel’s main strategic adversaries — Iraq, Syria, Egypt — are in disarray, while the Israeli armed forces have become the region’s superpower, in a league ahead of the rest. More important, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf states find themselves in a tacit alliance with Israel against Iran. In Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, Israel is dealing with perhaps the most anti-Hamas (and tacitly pro-Israeli) president in Egypt’s history.  To understand the depth of this strategic shift, consider this: It has been reported that Arabs are thinking about creating a combined armed force. The last two times that happened, in 1948 and 1967, the purpose was to wipe Israel off the map. Today, the aim is to fight Israel’s main foe, Iran, which is why, one Haaretz commentator notes, “Not only is Israel not alarmed, it is actually ecstatic.”  Second, Israel’s major enemies are under greater pressure than ever before. Iran and Hezbollah are committed to defending the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria — a daunting challenge, given that Assad represents the Alawites, who account for less than 15 percent of the country. Reports vary on how costly this support has been for Tehran — the Economist has cited a $15 billion figure, which would be the equivalent of about one year’s total defense budget for Iran. Hezbollah has become bogged down in Syria, with hundreds of its fighters having died there. The Syrian conflict will likely continue to occupy and drain Iran and Hezbollah for years, a crippling problem with the price of oil having fallen, and with it, Iran’s revenue.

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 Watching the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, one cannot but think that Israel’s main enemies — Shiite and Sunni extremists — are busy killing each other.  Of course, there is Iran’s nuclear program, though it has significantly slowed for now. Whatever the outcome of nuclear negotiations, it is worth remembering that Israel has a powerful deterrent, by some accounts as many as 200 nuclear warheads, many of them on submarines. Similarly, it has built a wall that reduced terrorist attacks against Israel to virtually zero, and its Iron Dome defense system has blunted the threat from Hamas and Hezbollah rockets.  And there is Israel’s economy, which continues to surge forward, outstripping the others in the region. As its waves of technological innovation and productivity continue, Israel finds itself courted by countries from China to India, which were once reluctant to even publicly acknowledge relations with Jerusalem.  So while it faces real dangers, Israel has policies to fight them with force and effectiveness. The danger for which it has no defense is that it continues to have control over Gaza and the West Bank, lands with 4.5 million people who have neither a country nor a vote. The feeling on the Israeli right, which now rules the country, seems to be that if the Palestinian problem is ignored, it will somehow solve itself. But it won’t, and the tragedy is that this is the moment, with so many stars aligned in Israel’s favor, when enlightened leadership could secure Israel permanently as a Jewish democratic state and make peace with its neighbors. It is a golden opportunity, and it is staring Netanyahu in the face.

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