Manitoba 2006 Transportation Report
Prepared for: Manitoba Transportation and Government Services
March 2006 Transport Institute, University of Manitoba Manitoba 2006 Transportaion Report
Prepared for: Manitoba Transportation and Government Services
March 2006 Transport Institute, University of Manitoba
This report has been financially supported by the Manitoba Department of Transportation and Government Services. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Department. The Department provides no warranties as to the validity or accuracy of the information presented herein. Table of Contents
1.0 Transportation and Warehousing and the Regional Canadian Economy ...... 3 2.0 Economic Impact of Transportation in Manitoba ‐ $2.93 Billion in 2004 ...... 11 3.0 Macro Trends Affecting Transportation...... 26 Economic Indicators ...... 26 Monetary and Energy Indicators ...... 37 4.0 Market, Trade, and Transportation Trends ...... 43 Markets ...... 43 International Trade...... 47 Import/Export Traffic by Mode...... 50 Emerging Transportation Issues ...... 57 5.0 Trade and Trade Flows...... 59 Methodology ...... 59 Trade by Province...... 60 Manitoba Trade by Sector...... 62 Manitoba Trade with the United States...... 64 Manitoba Trade with Other Countries...... 68 Commodity‐Specific Market Information...... 75 Exports ...... 75 Imports...... 80 Commodity Overview ...... 85 Flow‐Through Trade vs. Manitoba‐based Trade...... 87 Trade Flow‐Through Excluding Manitoba’s Components ...... 91 Trade Flow‐Through Overview...... 95 Manitoba Gateways ...... 97 Emerson, MB Gateway...... 97 Churchill, MB Gateway ...... 102 6.0 Federal Revenues and Expenditures...... 108 7.0 Climate and the Environment...... 111
1 Introduction
Transportation, like every other business sector, has undergone significant change in the past decade. Keeping in touch with developments in the sector, and maintaining awareness for the effect they have on Manitoba’s economic development has become a difficult task. It is essential that a vehicle exists to continually assess global developments impacting the transportation sector, and to apprise policy makers of the potential impacts that changes in the sector may have on the Manitoba economy.
With the support of the Government of Manitoba’s Department of Transportation and Government Services, the University of Manitoba Transport Institute (UMTI) has developed a Report on Transportation. The target audience is the Minister of Transportation and Government Services, and executive officers in the department responsible for policy development. The Report identifies key transportation and trade trends in Manitoba, and assesses critical drivers affecting the economic development of transportation.
Data presented in this report is the latest available Statistics Canada, Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and industry data that is available to our researchers.
2 1.0 Transportation and Warehousing and the Regional Canadian Economy Canada comprises the second largest national land mass on the globe, with likely the lowest population density among industrialized nations. This, coupled with our dependence on international trade, incorporates a significant spatial element to virtually all aspects of our economy. While Transportation and Warehousing is important to Canada as a whole, it is a more important part of the economy in the west than the east. As shown in Figure 1.1 the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is more than 150% when Western Canada is compared to Eastern Canada.
Figure 1.1: Ratio of Per Capita Contribution to GDP: Western Canada Compared to Eastern
159%
158%
157% 158%
156%
155%
154% 155% 155%
153%
152% 153% 152% 151%
150%
149% 20002001200220032004
The level of relative importance in Western Canada has increased from 153% in 2000 to 158% in 2004.
3 Within Western Canada there are some differences between provinces, however in all cases the importance of Transportation and Warehousing is greater than in Eastern Canada. As shown in Figure 1.2, the lowest share of GDP related to Transportation and Warehousing in Western Canada in 2004 was 5.8% for Alberta. Comparatively the province with the highest share in Eastern Canada, New Brunswick, was 5.7%. Other western provinces had shares of GDP that were more than 6%, while typical eastern provinces had shares in the 4% range.
Figure 1.2: Transportation and Warehousing Contribution to GDP by Province/Territory: 2004
8.0% 7.1% 6.8% 7.0% 6.4% 5.8% 5.7% 6.0%
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% BC AB SK MB ON QUE N.B. N.S. P.E.I. NFLD YUK NWT NUN
At 6.8%, Manitoba had the second highest proportion of GDP arising from Transportation and Warehousing in Canada in 2004. Only Saskatchewan was higher at 7.1%.
4 As shown in Figure 1.3 the share of the economy in Manitoba arising from Transportation and Warehousing, at 6.8% of GDP, was 2.0% higher than the national average. Based on other measures of economic importance, such as employment and labour income, Transportation and Warehousing is also of greater significance in Manitoba than Canada‐wide. 6.0% of all employment and 7.3% of labour income in the Manitoba economy is due to these sectors. Comparatively, Transportation and Warehousing is only 5.1% and 5.2% of the national economy, respectively.
Figure 1.3: Contribution of Transportation and Warehousing Contribution to the Manitoba and National Economy: 2004
8.0% 7.3% 6.8% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.1% 5.2% 4.8% 5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% Based on GDP Based on Employment Based on Labour Income
Manitoba Canada
5 In 2004, Transportation and Warehousing was the sixth most important sector of the Manitoba economy, contributing $2.2 billion to GDP.1 It was more important than sectors such agriculture and mining, construction and leisure and hospitality. It was less important than financial activities (such as insurance), trade and utilities, education and health, manufacturing and public administration.
Figure 1.4: GDP of Sectors of the Manitoba Economy: 2004 ($ billion)
Financial Activities $6.5
Trade and Utilities $5.1
Education and Health Services $4.1
Manufacturing $4.1
Public Administration $2.3
Transportation and Warehousing $2.2
Agriculture and Mining $2.1
Construction $1.5
Prof. and Bus. Services $1.4
Information $1.3
Leisure and Hospitality $1.2
Other Services $0.9
$0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0
The $2.2 billion in GDP in Transportation and Warehousing for 2004 was an increase from the previous two years.
1 The GDP measured by Statistics Canada in the section is the direct contribution of transportation and warehousing and directly related sectors. It excludes induced effects discussed in Section 2.
6 At 6.8% of the economy and rising, it was still lower than in 2000 and 2001, as shown in Figure 1.5.
Figure 1.5: Trend in Share of Manitoba GDP
8.0%
7.5%
7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 6.5% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 1.6 shows Transportation and Warehousing’s share of total employment by province in 2004.
Figure 1.6: Transportation and Warehousing Share of Total Provincial Employment: 2004
7.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.6% 5.5%
4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0%
4.0% 3.4%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% BC AB SK MB ON QUE N.B. N.S. P.E.I. NFLD
7 While Manitoba is second to Saskatchewan in terms of overall economic importance of Transportation and Warehousing to the economy as measured by share of GDP, when labour markets are specifically considered, Transportation and Warehousing is more important in Manitoba than any other province. Transportation and Warehousing in Manitoba was 6.0% of total employment, higher than any other province.
Figure 1.7 shows, however, that this share has fallen from a peak of 6.6% of total provincial employment in 2001.
Figure 1.7: Trend in Transportation and Warehousing’s Share of Manitoba Total Employment
6.7%
6.6% 6.6% 6.5%
6.4%
6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2%
6.1%
6.0%
5.9% 6.0%
5.8%
5.7%
5.6% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
8 Figure 1.8 shows the importance of transportation and warehousing to labour income in the provinces and territories. When income from employment is considered, Transportation and Warehousing was 7.3% of all labour income in Manitoba in 2004. In terms of provincial rank it was tied with British Columbia.
Figure 1.8: Transportation and Warehousing Share of Total Provincial Labour Income: 2004
8.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.2% 5.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1%
5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
4.0%
3.0% 2.6%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% BC AB SK MB ON QUE N.B. N.S. P.E.I. NFLD YUK NWT NUN
9 Similar to the share of total Manitoba employment, the share of labour income attributable to Transportation and Warehousing has declined from 2000.
Figure 1.9: Trend in Transportation and Warehousing’s Share of Manitoba Labour Income
7.9%
7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6%
7.5%
7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 7.2%
7.1%
7.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
10 2.0 Economic Impact of Transportation in Manitoba2 ‐ $2.93 Billion in 2004
The previous section of this report provides an overview of the importance of Manitoba’s Transportation and Warehousing3 sector in terms of direct contribution to GDP, labour income, and employment. However, the activities of one sector are intertwined with those of other sectors in an economy such that the economic impact is magnified or multiplied throughout the overall economy. Measurement of such effects is undertaken through economic impact models which attempt to quantify the intersectoral relationships. There are numerous designs of such models, which vary primarily in the scope of the “net” which defines the direct impacts of the sector under investigation.
For this study of transportation in Manitoba, the definition applied is the commercial carriage of goods and people. This definition is advantageous to producing sound measures of the impact. It limits criticism of overstatement of the effects by limiting the sectors considered to those directly performing commercial transportation. It excludes allied sectors such as service industries (example hotels), repair shops, or equipment manufacturers. When included these allied sectors open the measured economic impact to criticism since the multiplicative effects of activities from the direct industry include the impacts on these allied sectors. Overall this restrictive definition of the sector mutes the criticism of double counting.
The total economic impact of transportation is defined as the sum of direct economic activity, indirect economic activity and induced economic activity. Direct economic activity is measured by the economic drivers of employment, employment income, and expenditures and contribution to provincial gross domestic product for the transportation sector. Indirect activities are those that occur in firms that supply inputs to the direct sector. Induced effects are the trickle down affects of the expenditures by both the direct and related indirect sector as they multiply through other sectors of the economy. These are largely driven by consumption spending. The indirect and induced effects are a measure of the leverage derived from the direct effect. The higher the amount of leverage the greater the additional economic activity spawned from the original source. The total economic impact of the sector can be measured when the direct and the leverage effects are combined.
The robustness of economic impact results is dependent on the quality of information acquired about the direct sector, and the quality of the input output matrix used to
2 Annual data updates along with changes in multipliers, may yield results that are not comparable between annual reports. 3 The Statistics Canada macroeconomic industry data for GDP and labour for Canada, and provincially, consolidates transportation and warehousing. In terms of the remainder of this economic analysis section the focus is on transportation specifically.
11 derive the indirect and direct effects. Manitoba is a relatively small economy with few firms in many sectors. The consequence is general weakness of direct and input output data.
Two approaches are available to acquire data for the direct sector. Data can be acquired from third party data providers or the sector can be directly surveyed. In both cases, estimates of the economic drivers are developed of the entire population from the survey.
This analysis uses data acquired from third party data providers, principally Statistics Canada. This approach reduces costs, allows the creation of historical results and assures greater consistency of that historical information. The modes included in the analysis are:
• For Hire Trucking • Rail • Aviation • Couriers and Local Messengers,4 and • Urban and Interurban Bus
Data was not available for water carriers or for pipelines. Information for the taxi sector was available however has been excluded from this report, as policy setting for this mode is the purview of the Taxicab Board.
The multipliers used in this analysis were calculated by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.
4 Couriers and local messengers include the major international courier companies such as FedEx.
12 Figure 2.1 shows the growth in total GDP for Manitoba that is derived from transportation activities. Total GDP measured on this basis rose from $2.54 billion in 2000 to $2.93 billion is 2004. The compound growth rate was 3.6% per year. Since the slowdown experienced in 2002, when total GDP fell, the increase has been 5.5% per year.
Figure 2.1: Trend in Total GDP from Transportation in Manitoba ($ billion)
$3.00 2.93
$2.90 2.85
$2.80
$2.70 2.66 2.67
$2.60 2.54
$2.50
$2.40
$2.30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
This total includes the leverage effect of direct activity in transportation on other sectors.
13 Figure 2.2 shows economic impact of the total Manitoba transportation GDP as a ratio of direct, indirect, and induced effects.
Figure 2.2: Trend in GDP by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba ($ billion) $1.00 Direct GDP = $1.87 Total GDP Leverage Factor = .87
$3.50
2.93 $3.00 2.85 2.66 2.67 2.54 $2.50 0.72 0.74 0.67 0.68 0.64 $2.00 0.60 0.62 0.54 0.57 0.56 $1.50
$1.00 1.57 1.36 1.42 1.43 1.53 $0.50
$0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Direct Indirect Induced
Overall one dollar of GDP from direct transportation activities, results in an additional $.87 generated through activities in other sectors.
14 Since 2000, total employment attributable to transportation in Manitoba5, has grown by 1.9% from 47,320 to 48,200 (Figure 2.3). A decline of 3.8% was experienced between 2000 and 2002, prior to growth of 5.8% the last two years.
Figure 2.3: Trend in Total Transportation Employment in Manitoba
48,500 48,200
48,000
47,500 47,320
47,000
46,500 46,080 45,870 46,000 45,550 45,500
45,000
44,500
44,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
5 Statistics Canada made significant adjustments to employment 2000 to 2003 employment data for couriers in 2005.
15 The level of employment in trucking was a major influence on this trend as shown in Figure 2.4 and Figure 2.5.
Figure 2.4: Trend in Total Employment from Trucking in Manitoba
25,000 22,550 22,500 20,930 20,140 19,290 20,000 18,320
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 2.5: Trend in Total Employment from Aviation, Couriers, Rail and Bus in Manitoba
10,000 8,780 8,580 9,000 8,170 8,100 7,940 8,000 9,040 8,140 8,190 7,000 8,030 7,940 5,420 5,340 6,000 5,030 5,120 5,230
5,000 4,000 4,550 4,510 4,610 4,530 4,540 3,000
2,000
1,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aviation Couriers Rail Bus
16 Of the decline of 1,770 jobs between 2000 and 2002, 1,640 were due to trucking. Rail lost 610 jobs between 2000 and 2002. Offsetting these losses, were gains in aviation employment (110 jobs), courier employment (60 jobs) and bus employment (310 jobs).
Since 2002 transportation related employment has increased by 2,650 jobs. Trucking produced 3,260 jobs, while the other modes declined. The loss in rail was 230 jobs, while aviation related employment declined by 200 jobs. Bus and couriers lost 110 and 70 jobs, respectively.
Figure 2.6 shows the total employment by year broken down between, direct, indirect and induced effects. For each direct job in transportation an additional .84 jobs are created.
Figure 2.6: Trend in Employment by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba Number of Employees 1 Direct Job = 1.84 Total Jobs Leverage Factor = .84
50,000 47,320 48,200 45,870 45,550 46,080 45,000 11,180 11,330 40,000 10,900 10,770 10,880
35,000 10,440 10,620 30,000 10,240 10,080 10,220
25,000
20,000
15,000 25,700 24,730 24,700 24,980 26,250 10,000
5,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Direct Indirect Induced
17 Total labour income in Manitoba due to the transportation sector rose from $1.57 billion in 2000 to $1.73 billion in 2004 (Figure 2.7).6 The growth rate was 2.9% per year.
Figure 2.7: Trend in Total Labour Income from Transportation in Manitoba ($ billion)
$1.75 1.73
$1.70 1.67 1.65 1.65 $1.65
$1.60 1.57
$1.55
$1.50
$1.45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
For each dollar of direct labour income in transportation an additional $.72 in labour income is created in the Manitoba economy.
6 The methodology to calculate labour income was revised for this report compared to the previous report. In the previous report labour income for owner operators in the trucking mode was amalgamated into operating expenses and not directly considered as part of labour income. In this report labour income for owner operators has been assigned to labour income based on the average wage for drivers and other trucking company employees. The effect is to increase the level of labour income attributed to transportation.
18 Figure 2.8 shows the components of labour income since 2000.
Figure 2.8: Trend in Labour Income by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba ($ billion) $1 Direct Labour Income = $1.72 Total Labour Income Leverage Factor = .72
$2.00
$1.80 1.67 1.73 1.65 1.65 $1.60 1.57 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 $1.40 0.33
$1.20 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.32 $1.00
$0.80
$0.60 1.01 0.91 0.96 0.96 0.98 $0.40
$0.20
$0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Direct Indirect Induced
19 Amongst the modes, trucking is the most important transportation sector in Manitoba, contributing $1.11 billion to GDP in 2004 as shown in Figure 2.9. This is followed by rail and aviation. Couriers and bus are similar in size.
Figure 2.9: Contribution to Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode: 2004 ($ billion)
Couriers, $0.21 Trucking, $1.11
Aviation, $0.64
Bus, $0.18
Rail, $0.80
As shown in Figure 2.10 each mode’s contribution to GDP has increased since 2000.
Figure 2.10: Change in Contribution to Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode ($ billion)
$1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.11 $1.10 $1.00 $0.86 $0.90 $0.80 $0.77 $0.80 $0.64 $0.70 $0.59 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.16 $0.18 $0.16 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 Aviation Couriers Trucking Rail Bus
2004 2000
20 The largest growth was in trucking with the contribution to GDP rising by $.25 billion over the time period. Other modes grew at smaller rates.
Figure 2.11 shows the comparative leverage of each of the modes in terms of contribution to GDP. Per dollar of GDP generated directly, bus generates the highest level of leverage throughout the economy at 1.44, followed by aviation and couriers. Rail has the smallest leverage effect at .64, while trucking is .83.
Figure 2.11: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode
1.5 1.44 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.12 1.1 1.04 1 0.9 0.83 0.8 0.7 0.64 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Bus Aviation Couriers Trucking Rail
21 When employment is considered, trucking is the largest contributor to transportation and related jobs in Manitoba. Total employment created by trucking is about equal to that of aviation, bus and rail combined. Couriers are smaller, with 4,540 jobs attributed to this mode. Details are shown in Figure 2.12.
Figure 2.12: Contribution to Manitoba Total Employment by Transportation Mode: 2004
Couriers, 4,540 Trucking, 22,550
Aviation, 7,940
Bus, 5,230 Rail, 7,940
22 Employment changes between 2004 and 2000 are shown in Figure 2.13. As of the end of 2004, employment from trucking had increased from 20,930 to 22,550. Rail declined from 8,780 to 7,940, while bus grew by 200. Couriers and aviation were largely unchanged.
Figure 2.13: Change in Employment by Transportation Mode 25,000 22,550
20,930
20,000
15,000
10,000 8,780 7,940 8,030 7,940 5,230 4,540 4,550 5,030 5,000
0
Aviation Couriers Trucking Rail Bus
2004 2000
With respect to leverage in creating jobs throughout the economy, as shown in Figure 2.14, each aviation direct job generates an additional 1.25 jobs. This is followed by rail at 0.86, bus at 0.80 and trucking at 0.75. The ratio for couriers is the lowest at 0.69.
Figure 2.14: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba Employment by Transportation Mode
1.50 1.40 1.25 1.30
1.20
1.10 1.00 0.86 0.90 0.80 0.75 0.80 0.69 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30
0.20 0.10 0.00 Aviation Rail Bus Trucking Couriers
23 When labour income is considered, trucking is also the largest modal contributor to the economy. As shown in Figure 2.15, the trucking industry generated $.63 billion in labour income in 2004. This was followed by rail at $.48 billion, aviation at $.36, bus at $.17 billion and couriers at $.10 billion.
Figure 2.15: Contribution to Manitoba Labour Income by Transportation Mode: 2004 ($ billion)
Couriers, $0.10 Trucking, $0.63
Aviation, $0.36
Bus, $0.17
Rail, $0.48
Growth in labour income from 2000 to 2004 is shown in Figure 2.16. Labour income from trucking increased from $.50 billion to $.63 billion. Other modes were largely unchanged between 2000 and 2004.
Figure 2.16: Change in Labour Income by Transportation Mode ($ billion) $0.80
$0.70 $0.63 $0.60 $0.50 $0.48 $0.49 $0.50
$0.40 $0.36 $0.35
$0.30
$0.17 $0.20 $0.14 $0.10 $0.09 $0.10
$0.00 Aviation Couriers Trucking Rail Bus
2004 2000
24 Figure 2.17 provides the leverage ratios for labour income by mode. Aviation provides the greatest leverage with $.91 of additional labour income through the economy for every dollar of direct labour income in aviation. This is followed by couriers and trucking. Rail and bus provide lower levels of leverage.
Figure 2.17: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba Labour Income by Transportation Mode
1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.91 0.90 0.80 0.74 0.73 0.65 0.70 0.60 0.48 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Aviation Couriers Trucking Rail Bus
25 3.0 Macro Trends Affecting Transportation The transportation sector plays a strategic role as a driver of economic activity. As a dynamic facilitator of economic growth, transportation industries must be flexible in order to respond to broad level economic developments. The combination of facilitative and responsive activity of transportation is heavily influenced by the macro economy.
According to the Bank of Canada’s 2005 Financial System Review, the following are key points of concern with regard to Canadian financial and macro economic environments:
• Canadian financial institutions, households, and industries have, in general, been economically robust; • Global trade imbalances pose a threat to Canada’s economic stability given its strong reliance on trade as an element of economic growth; • Cost‐saving and regulatory measures in the U.S. have dramatically affected the Canadian auto manufacturing, agricultural, and forestry sectors; • While energy prices have increased dramatically, high levels of consumer spending (boosted by low interest rates) have off‐set much of the shock. There is, however, the potential for energy prices to overwhelm the power of consumer demand if energy trends continue.
With these points in mind, this section explores a number of key macro economic indicators that have a direct effect on the cost and flow of transportation services. Like other critical business sectors, developments in the various transportation industries are intimately tied to the demands and performance of the economy, provincially, nationally, and globally. Monetary, productivity, and spending related indicators reveal much about the state of the economy, and in turn, provide a vehicle for understanding developments and bottlenecks across the transportation sector.
Developments such as west coast port/intermodal congestion, the growing size of container fleets, rising demand for truck drivers, and the rationalization of the Canadian air passenger industry each share a connection to macro economic influences. To facilitate expedient, efficient responses to global demand and effective solutions to industry challenges, transportation stakeholders must take into consideration the climate of the macro economy.
Economic Indicators The economic performance indicators listed in this section capture a set of trends in the economies of Canada and Manitoba between 2000 and 2004. Together, the indicators provide a context for understanding why and when developments in the transportation sector have occurred.
26 Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 show the GDP totals (in millions of dollars) and rates of change in GDP for Canada and Manitoba.
Figure 3.1: Gross Domestic Product‐ GDP (Canada/Manitoba)
1,200,000 $1,124,428 50,000 $1,070,789 $1,092,388 $1,020,488 $1,038,702
1,000,000 40,000
800,000 $34,338 $35,136 $32,846 $33,111 $33,735 30,000
600,000 $000,000 $000,000 20,000 400,000
10,000 200,000
0 0 2000 2001 20 02 2003 2004
Canada Manitoba
Between 2000 and 2004, Canada’s GDP at market prices increased from more than $1.02 trillion to $1.12 trillion. Over the same time period, Manitoba’s GDP at market prices increased from more than $32.8 billion to over $35.1 billion.
27 The trend lines in Figure 3.2 indicate that the provincial and national levels of growth have been stable for four years, with Canada’s GDP averaging a 3% growth rate, and Manitoba’s GDP averaging a 2% growth rate.
Figure 3.2: Rate of Change in GDP (Canada/Manitoba)
6.0% 5.2%
5.0%
4.0%
4.3% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0%
Change 2.0% % 1.8% 2.0% 2.3%
1.9% 1.8%
1.0%
0.8% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Growth rates in Manitoba and Canada have remained stable despite the trends of rising currency values and energy prices. Most have attributed the stability of the economy at the national and provincial scales to high levels of demand in both domestic and global markets, off‐setting the negative effects of the energy and currency markets. In 2004, Canada’s rates of growth in quarterly average imports (approximately 7%) and quarterly average exports (approximately 8%) outpaced GDP growth. This is a reflection of the importance of trade to Canada’s economy.
Although the 2004 figures represent a turnaround from the 2001 GDP levels, they do not reflect the levels of GDP growth experienced in 2000 (between 4% and 5%). In both Manitoba and Canada, GDP growth is anticipated to be modest (averaging between 2‐ 3%) over the next few years.
28 Figure 3.3 shows labour income (in millions of dollars) for Canada and Manitoba between 2000 and 2004.
Figure 3.3: Labour Income (Canada/Manitoba)
$175,000 $25,000 $150,761 $146,571 $141,945 $150,000 $136,043 $140,141 $20,000
$125,000 $20,039 $19,304 $18,581 $17,733 $17,146 $15,000 $100,000
$000,000 $000,000 $75,000 $10,000
$50,000
$5,000
$25,000
$0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Canada Manitoba
29 Much like the overall growth rate in the province’s economy, the rate of change in Manitoba’s labour income was steady over the 2000 to 2004 period. However, between 2001 and 2004, the rate of growth in Manitoba’s labour income exceeded the rate for all of Canada. As figure 3.4 shows, following the 2000 rate of growth of 7.9%, Canada’s labour income growth rates dropped to the 2‐3% range. Conversely, labour income in Manitoba fluctuated between growth rates of 3‐5%.
Figure 3.4: Rate of Change in Labour Income (Canada/Manitoba)
8.0% 7.9%
6.0%
4.8% 5.3%
3.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.4% Change
% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0%
1.3%
0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Steady rates of growth in the provincial and national labour income statistics reflect Canadians’ abilities to purchase goods and services, and indirectly influence the demand for transportation services.
30 Figures 3.5 to 3.8 reflect changes in market prices (consumer price index‐CPI) and personal spending in the Canadian and Manitoban economies.
Figure 3.5 shows the consumer price indices for Canada and Manitoba. As a measure of prices of a basket of consumer goods, the CPI is often referred to as an indicator of price changes (inflation/deflation) in the economy.
Figure 3.5: Consumer Price Index (Canada/Manitoba)
150
125.3 127.8 121.2 123.1 125 118.1 124.6 122.3 116.4 119 113.5 100
Points 75
Index
50
25
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Canada Manitoba
Between 2000 and 2004, the CPI for the Canadian economy increased from 118.1 basis points to 127.8 basis points. The CPI for Manitoba also increased between 2000 and 2004. In 2000, the Manitoba CPI was 113.5 basis points. In 2004, the Manitoba CPI was 124.6 basis points. At both the national and provincial levels, these increases represent a gradual, stable increase of prices.
31 As shown in Figure 3.6, between 2003 and 2004, Manitoba’s CPI grew by 2%, while the CPI in Canada grew by 1.9%. Although prices have inflated consistently in Manitoba, the rate of annual inflation has been 2% or less since 2001.
Figure 3.6: Rate of Change in CPI (Canada/Manitoba)
4.0%
2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6%
2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% Change
% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8%
1.0%
0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Price stability at the national and provincial level persisted through 2004 despite the negative influences of rising energy prices and added transportation costs through such measures as fuel surcharges. Increases in the value of the Canadian dollar, and reciprocal growth in imports from lower cost markets such as China helped keep prices stable across most sectors.
32 Figure 3.7 reflects the changing value of personal expenditures through the Canadian and Manitoba economies.
Figure 3.7: Personal Expenditures (Canada/Manitoba)
$700,000 $640,630 $30,000 $619,401 $600 ,701 $566,664 $579,513 $600,000 $25,000
$500,000 $21,719 $20,000 $20 ,567 $20,995 $20,000 $400,000 $19,629
$15,000 $000,000 $000,000 $300,000
$10,000 $200,000
$5,000 $100,000
$0 $0 2000 2001 2 0 02 2003 2004
Canada Manitoba
In 2000, personal expenditures in the Canadian economy were more than $566 billion, while personal expenditures in Manitoba were over $19 billion. In 2004 the amount of personal expenditures in Canada and Manitoba increased to more than $640 billion and $21 billion respectively.
33 Figure 3.8 contrasts the trends in personal expenditures for Canada and Manitoba between 2000 and 2004. The trends at both the national and provincial levels show a year‐over‐year pattern in which growth rates fluctuate between higher and lower growth percentages.
Between 2003 and 2004, both the Canadian and Manitoban economies were on an up‐ swing, as Canada’s personal expenditure growth increased from 3.1% to 3.4%, and Manitoba’s personal expenditure growth increased from 2.1% to 3.4%. This level of increased spending reflects increases in consumer demand, and thus, a greater demand for efficient, reliable transportation services.
Figure 3.8: Rate of Change in Personal Expenditures (Canada/Manitoba)
5.0%
4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1%
3.4% 3.0% 2.3%
Change 2.8%
% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
1.0%
0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
34 Figures 3.9 and 3.10 reflect the number of housing starts in Canada and Manitoba between 2000 and 2004, as well as the percent change in housing starts on year‐over‐year basis.
The percent change in housing starts reveals information about consumption patterns, is directly related to other key indicators such as labour income and interest rates, and is closely affiliated with the performance of critical economic industries such as forestry, manufacturing, and transportation.
Figure 3.9: Housing Starts (Canada/Manitoba)
1000 929.6 25 877.8 821.7
800 20 652.7 611.9 17.8 600 16.6 15 s s 14.4 000 ʹ 000 ʹ 400 11.8 10 10.2
200 5
0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Canada Manitoba
In Canada, the number of housing starts increased between 2000 and 2004 from more than 611,000 to more than 929,000. In Manitoba, the number of housing starts also increased. Between 2000 and 2004, housing starts in Manitoba increased from 10,000 to more than 17,000.
35 According to Figure 3.10, the number of housing starts in Canada and Manitoba peaked in 2002 when total housing starts increased at a rate of 25.9% and 22% respectively. By 2004, the number of housing starts in Canada and Manitoba increased at rates of 5.9% and 7.2%. These figures reflect the broad stability that has characterized the Canadian and Manitoban economies in recent years.
Figure 3.10: Rate of Change in Housing Starts (Canada/Manitoba)
30.0% 25.9%
20.0% 15.7% 22.0% 15.3%
10.0% 7.2% 2.3% 6.7% 6.8% 5.9% 0.0% Change
% ‐10.0%
‐20.0% ‐20.3%
‐30.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
36 Monetary and Energy Indicators One of the major factors influencing Canada’s trade flows and overall economic growth has been the rising value of the currency relative to the U.S. dollar. By the fourth quarter of 2004, the average quarterly value of the Canadian dollar was closer to that of the U.S. dollar than at any point in the last five years.
Figure 3.11 shows the trend in the ratio of the Canadian dollar to the U.S. dollar. By the fourth quarter of 2003, the value of the U.S. dollar dropped over 16% (to CDN$ 1.31) from the previous year’s fourth quarter.
Figure 3.11: Quarterly Average Exchange Rates‐ U.S. Dollar
10.0% $1.80 1.59 1.52 $1.60 5.0% 1.38 4.3% 1.30 $1.40 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% $1.20
‐2.2%
e $1.00 ang ‐5.0% CDN
Ch
‐6.3% $0.80 $ % ‐10.0% ‐10.4% $0.60 ‐11.4% $0.40 ‐15.0% $0.20 ‐20.0% $‐
1 1 1 1 1 1‐ 2‐ ‐ 00 00 2000‐ 2 2 2003 2004‐
Fiscal Quarter
This trend has occurred not so much as a result of Canadian economic developments, but in response to the flow of U.S. currency around the world. In the last two years, U.S. trade deficits, geopolitical actions, and downturns in key sectors such as the automotive sector have been supported by a rising public accounts deficit. The current account deficit in the U.S. is approximately US$800 billion, or 7% of U.S. GDP. China in particular has been purchasing U.S. reserves at a vast rate, directly affecting the supply of U.S. currency, and in turn, its value. As the primary currency in world markets, decreases in the value of the U.S. dollar translate into increases in the values of other foreign currencies. Although the U.S. dollar depreciated in value through 2004, its value may rebound as overseas reserves of U.S. dollars increase (depleting the domestic money supply).
37 The rising value of the Canadian dollar has enhanced consumer spending on imported goods. However, as the U.S. dollar has depreciated in foreign currency markets (from a value of CDN$1.54 at the start of 2001 to a value of CDN$1.20), Canadian goods and services have become more expensive in the U.S. market. While this has not drastically impacted the flow of Canadian exports, the flow of goods, particularly to the U.S., is vulnerable to potential decreases.
Although the rate of change in the value of the Canadian dollar (to the U.S. dollar) slowed over 2004, the trend toward exchange rate parity (1:1) continued. This has been a particularly damaging trend for the Canadian manufacturing sector. With the rise of competitive Asian economies in recent years, Canada’s major trading partners (specifically the U.S.) have shifted their purchasing patterns overseas for less expensive goods. Should the recent currency trend persist, the Canadian manufacturing sector (and others) is likely to suffer.
In addition, Canadian transportation companies whose services are set in U.S. dollars and who rely on U.S. markets for a great portion of their business have been affected by the recent currency trend.
38 Figure 3.12 shows the year‐over‐year trend in quarterly average interest rates. Between the fourth quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2004, interest rates averaged between 2% and 3%. Much like the cyclical nature of currency markets, interest rates experienced as much as a 36% increase in the first quarter of 2003, and a 35% decrease in the second quarter of 2004.
Lower rates between 2003 and 2004 stimulated consumer spending (see figure 3.4) and boosted levels of domestic demand in key areas such as real estate (see figure 3.5). The Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates to levels seen in 2000 and 2001 (5% and 6%), but may continue to increase rates slightly in order to curb consumer spending.
Figure 3.12: Quarterly Average Interest Rates (Bank of Canada rate)
60.0% 7.0
6.00% 36.9% 40.0% 6.0
20.0% 20.7% 5.0
% 5.7%
ge 0.0% ‐8.3% 4.0 Rate Chan ‐20.0% ‐17.2% 2.67% 3.0 % 3.08%
Interest 2.75% ‐40.0% ‐35.7% 2.0
‐60.0% 1.0 ‐59.7%
‐80.0% 0.0
1 1 ‐1 1 1 2 01‐ 004‐ 2000‐ 20 200 2003‐ 2
39 Natural disasters, international conflicts, and global demand have each contributed to growth in world oil prices. Figure 3.13 shows the trend in quarterly average oil prices between 2000 and 2004. Following the U.S. recovery from 9/11, geopolitical instability, and the growth of the Chinese economy, oil prices in the first quarter of 2003 increased by 50% over the first quarter of 2002, and again by 50% at the end of 2004 (relative to the fourth quarter of 2003).
Forecasts on future oil prices per barrel have ranged from between US$60 per barrel to US$80 per barrel.
Given the relatively unstable political and social environments in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, along with U.S. (and increasingly Chinese) dependence on oil, Canada may be posed to become one of the world’s largest exporters (despite the current lack of refinery infrastructure). Alberta has recently been identified as potentially holding the world’s second largest source of oil reserves (next to Saudi Arabia).
Figure 3.13: Quarterly Average Price Oil/Barrel ($US)
150.0% $50.00 $45.00 125.0% 41.39
$40.00 100.0% 73.1% 29.39 $35.00 75.0% 29.72 26.93 $30.00 50.3% 50.0% $25.00
Change 49.2%
% $20.00 $US/barrel 25.0% 19.35 $15.00 0.0% 1.3% 4.5% ‐3.9% $10.00 ‐25.0% ‐34.9% $5.00
‐50.0% $‐
‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 2 03 04 2000 2001 200 20 20 Fiscal Quarter
40 Rising oil prices have translated into higher fuel costs. Figures 3.14 and 3.15 show the average quarterly trends for unleaded and diesel fuel prices in the Winnipeg region.
Figure 3.14: Quarterly Average Unleaded Fuel Prices (Winnipeg Region)
40.0% $0.90 0.81
28.4% $0.80 30.0% 0.70 0.70 23.7% $0.70 20.0% 0.58 15.9% $0.60 10.0% 14.1% $0.50 ‐1.0% Change 0.0% $0.40 % 0.8% $CDN/litre ‐0.6% $0.30 ‐10.0% $0.20 ‐20.0% ‐16.5% $0.10
‐30.0% $‐
1 1 ‐1 1 1
2000‐ 2001‐ 2002 2003‐ 2004‐ Fiscal Quarter
41 In the second and fourth quarters of 2004, average unleaded fuel prices increased by 23.7% and 28.2% over the previous year. The fourth quarter average price of unleaded fuel in the Winnipeg region was CDN$0.81 per litre. While not as drastic a rate change, fourth quarter average diesel prices increased by over 20% in 2004.
The fourth quarter average diesel price in the Winnipeg region was CDN$0.76 per litre. These increases have contributed to higher service costs in all modes resulting in the addition of fuel surcharges to freight and passenger transportation.
Figure 3.15: Quarterly Average Diesel Fuel Prices (Winnipeg Region)
30.0% $0.90
22.8% $0.80 0.72 20.0% 0.68 0.68 $0.70 0.59 14.3% $0.60
11.3% 10.0% 0.57 9.6% $0.50
Change $0.40 % 0.0% $CDN/litre $0.30 ‐4.5% ‐10.0% $0.20
‐13.2% $0.10
‐20.0% $‐
1 1 1 1 1 0‐ 1‐ 2‐ 4‐ 0 200 200 20 2003‐ 200 Fiscal Quarter
42 4.0 Market, Trade, and Transportation Trends Trends in the transportation sector are largely driven by the condition of the global economic environment, and by the force of global trade flows. Recent transportation developments such as port infrastructure investments in Vancouver and Prince Rupert, the construction of container ships with capacities exceeding 8,000 TEU’s, rail co‐ production agreements have surfaced as a result of the increased integration of the Canadian and Manitoban economies with world markets.
Reduced boundaries between markets arising from trade liberalization have increased the importance of global supply chain connections. As trade flows reach beyond traditional markets, effective strategies for maintaining an efficient trade network must be supported by industry and government stakeholders. As a gateway for interprovincial and international trade, such developments are particularly relevant to the Province of Manitoba.
This section provides an overview of economic growth trends in major international markets, and deals with the flow of import and export traffic in the Canadian economy. This data adds depth to the set of emerging transportation issues that are also discussed.
Markets Recent conditions in the global economy have given rise to a set of emerging, resurging, and persistent markets that directly influence the ebb and flow of transportation services. The emergence of new economic markets across Asia (specifically China and India), the resurgence of economies in Western Europe and Japan, and the ongoing importance of the United States (U.S.) economy despite its growing public accounts deficits have contributed to strategic planning, logistics, and capacity concerns in transportation industries.
Figure 4.1 examines economic growth trends (using GDP data) in five of the world’s traditionally influential economies, including Canada. Japan is the only nation that experienced a recessionary period between 2000 and 2004 (‐0.3% in 2002). Each of the other countries posted growth rates in the range of 2% to 4%. Between 2003 and 2004, the economies of Canada, the U.S., the United Kingdom (UK), Japan, and Western Europe (in place of the European Union) grew at greater rates than in the previous period. The resurgence and persistence of these economies occurred despite rising energy prices, heightened competition from emerging markets, and currency fluctuations (relative to the U.S. dollar).
43 Figure 4.1: Rate of Change; Canada to Traditional International Economies ‐ GDP in Constant 1990 U.S. Dollars 12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
e 6.0%
ang Canada/ Ch USA 4.0% % UK Japan 2.0%
Western Europe 0.0%
‐2.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
*Western Europe statistics used in lieu of European Union statistics ** Statistics Canada base year (1997) adjusted for comparison
Often, developments and trends in transportation are the result of, or a response to changing locations and levels of market demand. While the economies of Canada and Manitoba have, and continue to be primarily linked to the United States, increasing levels of demand in emerging markets have impacted transportation.
In contrast to the modest growth trends of the markets in figure 4.1, a number of international markets have shown robust growth trends over the period of 2000 to 2004. Four key markets that have assumed a greater position of influence in global trade and investment flows are China, India, Brazil, and Russia (commonly referred to as the BRIC nations). Demand from the BRIC nations for a range of raw materials, energy resources, machinery, and agricultural commodities have added expanded supply chains, and added capacity constraints to transportation networks.
Figure 4.2 compares the rate of economic growth in Canada to the rates in the BRIC nations. Between 2000 and 2003, only Brazil posted lower rates of growth than Canada. However, by 2004, the rate of economic growth in Brazil (4%) was on par with the rate of growth in the Canadian economy. In contrast, the rates of economic growth in China (averaging between 8% and 10% annually), and in Russia and India (averaging between 5% and 8% annually) far exceed the rate at which the Canadian economy has been expanding (around 3% for the same period).
44 Figure 4.2: Rate of Change in GDP; Canada to Emerging International Economies ‐ GDP in Constant 1990 U.S. Dollars
12.0%
10.0% China
8.0% Russia
India
ge 6.0%
han Canada C 4.0% % Brazil
2.0%
0.0%
‐2.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year * Statistics Canada base year (1997) adjusted for comparison
As emerging international economies, China and India have established themselves on the global stage to a greater degree than Brazil and Russia. That said, the expansion of oil and natural gas resources in Russia and growth in Brazil’s agricultural industries have the potential to expand the economies of these nations.
Between 2000 and 2004, China’s share of world trade doubled to 6%, placing it second behind the United States. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by an average of 10% over the next five years.
While the Chinese have developed an export‐led economy that is rivaling the top economies in the world in terms of growth and foreign direct investment, India has developed its economy along a somewhat different path, using its skilled labour and service sectors to become one of the world’s leading knowledge economies. The following are key points to note with regard to China and India:
• Between 2003 and 2004, China’s share of Canada’s total exports increased by 110%; • More than 90% of China’s exports are manufactured goods, and a growing percent of its imports are unfinished/intermediate products; • In 2005, the Chinese Government released the Yuan from a fixed exchange rate leading to an immediate currency appreciation of 2.1%;
45 • In 2003, China’s trade represented 74% of its GDP, while India’s trade represented 32% of its GDP; • India’s weighting of services and agriculture (52% and 22% in 2003) are higher than China’s (32% and 15% in 2003); and • China is currently outpacing India in terms of technology exports, but India is exporting a greater percentage of high‐end, value‐added technologies and is likely to see its technology sectors outlast the Chinese sectors over time.
In recent years, the Chinese manufacturing sectors and the Indian technology/service sectors have been the leading cause of capacity constraints across the transportation sector. The volume of traffic along Pacific trade routes and arriving at west coast port facilities has often overwhelmed the capacities of the marine, rail, and trucking industries.
In response to the congestion that has developed along Pacific trade routes, an increasing number of vessels traveling between Asia and North America have traveled through the Panama and Suez Canals. The majority of this traffic by‐passes west coast ports, and instead targets southern and east coast options where traffic volumes are less. The practice of re‐routing has become so prevalent that the Panama Canal Authority is on a course to reaching its capacity. This is anticipated to happen by 2008 (at an annual traffic growth rate of 3%). This figure was released in a recent study produced by the research company Drewry Shipping Consultants. The study did not look at the capacity constraints in the Suez region, though they are believed to be under less of a capacity crunch than the Panama Canal Authority (specifically because of Asian traffic flows). As a result of the growth in traffic volumes, the Panama Canal Authority is looking at massive infrastructure developments to increase its capacity.
The Port of Vancouver and the Port of Prince Rupert are expanding their facilities to accommodate growth in container traffic flowing to and from North American markets. Both ports are slated to begin the initial phases of expansion in 2006. The expansion of Prince Rupert’s port capacity will help to ease congestion at the Port of Vancouver, and will provide a direct link between Prince Rupert and key markets in Chicago and Toronto. This growth will have implications for marine facility management, but will also impact the logistics efforts of road and rail stakeholders. With the added capacities on Canada’s west coast, bottlenecks through the B.C. interior, or a repeat of the Port of Vancouver container truck driver strike could have far reaching consequences for North American supply chains.
46 International Trade The following charts show Canada’s international trade flows. The first set shows the percentages of Canada’s imports and exports from/to the top origin and destination markets. The latter set explores the modal distribution of Canada’s import and export traffic. This data provides a source for considering the impact that directional trade flows have had on the transportation network. The charts deal with the percent of Canadian imports and exports by both weight and value.
Figure 4.3 shows the top ten origins of merchandise (by value) coming into Canada in 2004. The United States was the origin of more than half of all Canadian imports in 2004. In a reflection of the growing presence of Asian markets on the global scale, more than 10% of all Canadian imports came from Asian countries that included China, Japan, and South Korea.
Figure 4.3: 2004 Canadian Imports‐ Top 10 Countries by Value
Norway 1.4% China 6.8% U.K. 2.7% Japan 3.8%
France 1.5% S. Korea 1.6% Germany 2.7% Mexico 3.8% U.S.A. 58.8%
Italy 1.3%
Figure 4.4 shows the origin of Canada’s 2004 import traffic by weight. Much like the origin of Canada’s imports measured by value, the greatest amount of imports measured by weight also came from the U.S. While more than half of Canada’s imports by value came from the U.S., over 65% of Canada’s imports by weight came from the U.S. Despite the growing trend of trade relations between North America and Asia, there remains a high concentration of trade within the borders of North America.
47 In contrast to the percentages shown in figure 4.3, the percent of Canadian imports measured by weight, originating in Asia is approximately half of the total import percentages that are based on value. This difference reflects the value‐added component that the economies of Japan, South Korea, and China, contribute to Canadian imports.
Looking beyond the trade relationship between Canada and the U.S., there is a clear demand for high‐value products from Asian markets. However, as one of the leading nations in high‐value service and technological production, India is not one of Canada’s top 10 origins of import traffic (by value). As the Indian economy expands, it is likely that they will become one of Canada’s top ten sources of import traffic (by value).
Figure 4.4: 2004 Canadian Imports‐ Top 10 Countries by Weight
Germany 1.8% Japan 2.3%
U.K. 1.7%
China 3.5% Algeria 1.3%
Russia 1.5%
Mexico 2.0% U.S.A. 65.8% Brazil 2.5%
Venezuela 2.1%
48 Figures 4.5 and 4.6 show Canadian export flows by value and weight. As indicated in figure 4.5, more than 80% of Canada’s 2004 exports (by value) went to the U.S. Despite major job cuts in the manufacturing sector, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and rising interest rates, consumer demand in the U.S. remained high through 2004, spurring Canadian exports.
Figure 4.5: 2004 Canadian Exports‐ Top 10 Countries by Value
Netherlands 0.6% Japan 2.5% Germany 0.8% China 1.9%
Belgium 0.6%
S Korea 0.7%
France 0.7%
U.K. 2.2% Mexico 0.9% U.S.A. 81.5%
49 Figure 4.6 shows Canada’s top ten export destinations by weight. Although the U.S. was the destination for over 70% of Canada’s 2004 exports by weight, the largest ratios of exports to other nations included China (4.7%) and Japan (3.7%). While Canadian exporters continue to place a large focus on neighbouring U.S. markets, the pull factor of the emerging Chinese and resurging Japanese economies is increasingly drawing Canadian goods.
Asian market demand for raw materials such as forestry products, natural resources such as coal, and agricultural products such as grains and fertilizers are a large reason for the increase in the percent of goods received from Canada. In Asia, access to high‐ value, manufactured goods such machinery, technology components, and transportation equipment is relatively localized. However, the demand for construction and infrastructure materials, as well as energy resources, food products, and intermediate manufactured goods (a part of the growth of outsourced production) is much greater.
Figure 4.6: 2004 Canadian Exports‐ Top 10 Countries by Weight
Japan 3.7%
S. Korea 0.8% U.K. 1.9%
Germany 1.5% China 4.7%
Taiwan 1.0% Italy 1.3%
Mexico 1.2% U.S.A. 70.4% Brazil 1.8%
Import/Export Traffic by Mode
Figures 4.7 and 4.8 show Canadian import and export traffic by mode. Identifying Canada’s import and export traffic by mode clearly reflects the strength of North American trade corridors. Whether measured by value or weight, more than half of Canada’s imports and exports travel overland. Although these goods may not have
50 been produced in North American markets, they have, for the most part, relied upon North American, land‐based infrastructure to facilitate economic exchanges.
In 2004, 61% of Canada’s imports, in terms of value, traveled by road. On a weight basis, 52% of imports traveled by road. The marine industry was responsible for 19% of Canada’s imports by value, and 34% of imports by weight. These percentages indicate a strong connection between Canadian and North American (primarily U.S.) markets for imports in terms of both value and weight.
As a reflection of the higher cost of moving goods by air, 13% of Canada’s value‐based imports entered Canada through air services, while only 2% of weight‐based imported goods were transported through airlines.
Although air services have been utilized less than those of the other modal industries, global demand for containers, the availability of space on marine vessels, and the reliability of over‐land transport systems has raised a cause for concern in the international shipping community. Despite rising air freight rates due, in part, to added fuel and security surcharges, supply chain managers’ desire to maintain ‘lean’ shipping and storage practices suggest that air transport (for international shipping) may become a more viable option in the coming years.
Figure 4.7: 2004 Canadian Imports by Mode
Value Weight Air Marine Air 13% Rail 19% 2% 12% Rail 7%
Marine
34%
Road Road 52% 61%
51 Figure 4.8 compares the modal distribution of 2004 Canadian exports by value and weight. While the majority of Canada’s exports measured by value were shipped by road (56%), the largest percent of Canadian exports by weight were shipped by marine vessels (50%). The former is indicative of Canada’s close relationship to North American market sources, while the latter reflects the level of global demand (specifically from developing Asian countries) for materials such as forestry products, minerals, energy resources and the bulk, intermediate goods trade occurring between Canada and China.
Figure 4.8: 2004 Canadian Exports by Mode
Value Weight Air Rail Air 11% 16% 1%
Marine Marine 50% Rail 17% 25%
Road Road 56% 24%
The following set of charts is an extension of the previous two charts. Figures 4.9 to 4.10 examine the rates of change in year‐over‐year modal import and export traffic.
52 Figure 4.9 shows the change in modal usage for Canadian imports by value. Between 2003 and 2004, the air industry increased its role as a source for importing goods (by value) by more than 11%. This change followed three years in which the rate of air import traffic (by value) consecutively decreased. Following the heightened security environment that developed in 2001, air imports by value decreased by 10% (2001), 9% (2002), and 8% (2003) to 2004. The air industry, which is usually one of Canada’s larger carriers of imports (by value), was the only mode to face consecutive decreases in its percent of goods carried.
Like the Canadian air industry, the rail (3.9%), road (3.0%), and marine (12.3%) industries each experienced positive rates of growth between 2003 and 2004. These figures were supported in part by Canadian consumer spending and a stronger valued Canadian dollar, allowing consumers and industries to purchase goods to a greater degree than in previous years.
Figure 4.9: Rate of Change in Canadian Import Traffic by Value
15.0% Air Rail Road 10.0% Marine
5.0%
0.0% Change
% ‐5.0%
‐10.0%
‐15.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
53 Figure 4.10 shows the rate of change in modal import traffic by weight. Between 2001 and 2002, the amount of air transported imports (by weight) increased by almost 30%. However, between 2003 and 2004, air imports increased by only 3%. This reflects the rising cost of transporting goods by air.
Between 2003 and 2004, road imports (by weight) increased more than 35%. This followed a period (2002 to 2003) in which weight‐based road imports decreased by almost 3%. While not the sole reason for the shift, the change in road imports between the two periods likely reflects the degree to which shippers and carriers have adapted to border security measures.
The rate of change in marine imports has been relatively constant, ranging between 2% and 4% growth each year. This implies a steady flow of shipments arriving at Canadian ports. The amount of goods entering Canada via rail systems has also increased in the last two years, with traffic growth of 13% in 2003 and 9% in 2004.
Figure 4.10: Rate of Change in Canadian Import Traffic by Weight
40.0% Air Rail Road 30.0% Marine
20.0%
10.0% Change
% 0.0%
‐10.0%
‐20.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
54 Figure 4.11 shows the rate of change in year‐over‐year modal shares of export traffic by value. Of the four modes shown, the rail industry posted the largest rate of growth in value‐based export traffic (14%) between 2003 and 2004. This followed three years in which rail export traffic (by value) decreased from the previous period.
During the same period, the rate of export traffic (by value) in the air industry (7.3% growth) and the marine industry (8.5% growth) also expanded from the 2003 rates. Road export traffic remained relatively stable between 2003 and 2004 with a 3% rate of growth.
Figure 4.11: Rate of Change in Canadian Export Traffic by Value
Air 20.0% Rail Road 15.0% Marine
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% Change
% ‐5.0%
‐10.0%
‐15.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
55 Figure 4.12 shows the rate of change in year‐over‐year modal export traffic by weight. Between 2001 and 2002, export traffic in the air industry dropped by over 40%, after increasing in the previous period by more than 110%. Although the effects of September 11th had an immediate impact on the rate of change for 2002 air export traffic, the industry’s role expanded in the following two periods (12% in 2003 and 37% in 2004).
Aside from the rates of change experienced in the air industry, Canadian export traffic by weight has not increased or decreased beyond 10% in any of the rail, road, or marine modes. This implies that although subtle changes have occurred in the flow of weight‐ based export traffic, the rail, road and marine industries have been relatively steady in their flows of weight‐based, export transportation.
Figure 4.12: Rate of Change in Canadian Export Traffic by Weight
125.0% Air Rail Road 100.0% Marine
75.0%
50.0%
Change 25.0%
%
0.0%
‐25.0%
‐50.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 Year
56 Emerging Transportation Issues
While the strength of and developments in the Canadian economy have a direct effect on the transportation sector, the integration of international markets through the global economy has an equally strong indirect effect on modal industries. As supply chains grow beyond borders and traditional, regionally‐based trade relations, the transportation sector must adapt. The following are a set of key developments that have surfaced through 2004 and 2005.
Rail • Canadian National Railroad’s (CNR’s) acquisition of BC Rail and GLT Rail has expanded capacity. CN has budgeted $1.5 billion for network improvements through 2006; • Through the Western Corridor Program (up to $500 million), Canadian Pacific Railroad (CPR) has allocated $160 to improving network efficiencies (by approximately 10%) between the Prairies and the Port of Vancouver; • In 2005, CNR and CPR announced a plan to enhance traffic flows and eliminate west coast bottlenecks. The CPR will handle all traffic running from Boston Bar to Vancouver’s South Shore, while CNR will handle all traffic running from Boston Bar to Burrard Inlet on Vancouver’s North Shore; • CNR’s intermodal capacity is to expected to have increased by 20% over 2005; • Pulp and paper industry developments forced CPR to close its Thunder Bay intermodal terminal; • CNR contributing to the development of a two million TEU‐per year intermodal facility in Prince Rupert.
Road • The industry is anticipating 3% to 5% growth in revenues for 2006; • Driver shortages are a major concern facing the industry; • Fuel and security surcharges are driving up freight rates; • The industry claims that border security initiatives have directly affected bottom lines; • Wait times continue to be a concern for cross‐border shipping.
Marine • In 2004, the Port of Vancouver handled over 73 million tonnes, an increase of 10% over 2003; • In 2004, the Port of Montreal handled over 23 million tonnes, an increase of 13% over 2003; • Infrastructure investments were planned for the Port of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and Montreal in response to capacity concerns;
57 • In 2005, Transport Canada introduced the Pacific Gateway Act, a $600 million strategy for improving infrastructure and efficiencies between marine facilities and over‐land transport (specifically targeting container movements); • Global containerized trade flows are expected to increase by 10% (114.4 million TEU’s) through 2006
Air • In 2005, Canada and the U.S. negotiated an air liberalization agreement targeting the pick‐up of passengers/cargo in the other’s territory, stand‐alone cargo service, and price competition with the other’s carriers; • In December 2005, Air Canada’s overall capacity increased by 4.5% over the previous year; • In December 2005, WestJet’s overall capacity increased by 9.8% over the previous year; • In 2005, Air Canada added cargo service capacity to Shanghai, as well as passenger flights between Toronto and Shanghai, and Toronto and Hong Kong; • In 2005, the Federal Government lowered airport rents by 60%, equal to rent relief of $8 billion over the course of existing airport leases.
58 5.0 Trade and Trade Flows
Methodology A large purpose of the Manitoba Transportation Report is to convey Manitoba’s relative position in Canada’s total international trade. Achieving this purpose requires a reliable source of information relating to Canadian international trade. All trade information presented in this section has been provided by Statistics Canada’s International Trade Division, which collects annual international trade data on all Canadian provinces. The information provided by this division is extensive and includes data such as, commodities traded, origins, destinations, value and weight. Modal information is available as well. As extensive as this database is, there are inherent limitations to this trade information requiring necessary caveats to be noted. These will be discussed below.
Customs‐based vs. Balance of Payments Trade Statistics All trade data presented in this section is Customs‐based. This differs from the second method of trade presentation; the Balance of Payment (BOP) method. The main difference between the two models is the data based on Customs involves the physical movement of goods and recorded on Customs documents while the BOP method tracks the flow of money between Canada’s business and government agencies and the rest of the world.
Imports vs. Exports Data Import statistics as collected by Customs are based on the Province of Clearance, meaning that goods are recorded at the province in which they were cleared by Customs. This may not coincide with the province in which these commodities are ultimately consumed. For example, imported goods from Asia but cleared through Manitoba can possibly be consumed in another Canadian province. Customs documentation does not track the final provincial destinations.
Export statistics are recorded by Customs by Province of Origin, meaning that the goods were grown, extracted or manufactured within that province. This may not always reflect the province from which the goods exited Canada. For example, commodities that originated in Alberta could have exited through Manitoba and vice versa. Information by Province of exit is readily available.
Trade by Sector New to the report is the inclusion of trade data based on Canada’s sectors of the economy. With the purpose of attempting to quantify sector‐based trade, the International Trade Division has created an internal commodity‐sector concordance list which allows a basic approximation of sector trade. Caution must be taken as
59 this is a rather simple measurement in an attempt to quantify the relative importance of sector‐based trade in Manitoba and Canada.
Modal Information Using Customs‐based trade statistics, there are caveats to be noted on the mode of transport for both imports and exports. For imports, information on the transportation mode refers to the last mode by which commodities were transported to the port of clearance and documented by Customs. This may not always be the mode in which goods arrived at the Canadian port of entry in the case of inland clearance.
For exports, the mode of transportation recorded represents the last mode used to carry goods across international borders. This transportation mode may not necessarily be the same mode used to deliver cargo within Canada, that is, trans‐ shipment effects are not recorded and are not readily available. For example, grain movements to China may not be recorded as marine.
Trade by Province By the end of 2004, Canada had exported approximately $340 billion worth of goods to other countries. Manitoba’s contribution to this total was approximately 3% or $9.99 billion. On a volume basis, Canada exported a total of 343 million tonnes in 2004. Manitoba’s share accounted for 4%, or approximately 13 million tonnes.
Figure 5.1 illustrates total exports by value and weight.
Figure 5.1: Manitoba and Other Provinces Share of Goods Exported, by Value and
by Value Weight, 2004 by Weight ($340 billion) (343 million tonnes)
Manitoba Ontario Ontario 3.8% Manitoba 21.9% 44.3% 2.9% Saskatchewan Territories Saskat chewan 11.3% 0.0% 3. 6%
Quebec Albe rta 16.7% 13.5 % Alberta 17.9% Territories British 0.5% Co lu mbia 9.6% Quebec Atlantic Atlantic 11.5% 20.1% British 5.4% Columbia 16.7%
60 In terms of imports7, Canada cleared a total of $355 billion worth of goods originating from other countries. Manitoba’s share of these imports resulted in about 3% or $10 billion. From a weight perspective, commodities entering Canadian boundaries from other countries amounted to 343 million tonnes, with Manitoba clearing almost 3% of the total, or 5.8 million tonnes.
Figure 5.2 shows Manitoba’s imports relative to other provinces in both value and weight.
Figure 5.2: Manitoba and Other Provinces Share of Goods Imported, by Value and Weight, 2004 by Value by Weight ($355 billion) (214 million tonnes) Ontario Ontario 62.0% 51.1%
Manitoba 2.7% Manitoba 3.0% Saskatchewan Saskatchewan 1.7% 1.3% Alberta Alberta 3.7% 3.8% Territories 0.0% British British Columbia Columbia 10.4% 9.3% Territories Atlantic Atlantic Quebec 0.0% 4.5% Quebec 8.0% 22.4% 16.1%
7 All information regarding imports represents the province in which the goods were cleared, but not necessarily destined for. Final destinations of these commodities are unknown.
61 Manitoba Trade by Sector Using trade‐based data to attempt to quantify productivity at the sector level provides a simple indication of the level of primary production and output of Manitoba’s industries. Figure 5.3 shows exports at the Canadian and Manitoban level by value in 2004.
Figure 5.3: Sector Contribution by Value of Exports from Manitoba and Canada, 2004
Manitoba Canada
Others Manuf. & 2.0% Others Whsale Trade 1.4% 1.6% Manuf. & Whsale Trade Special 2.7% Transactions 2.6% Mining Manuf. 3.5% 71.0% Manuf. Agriculture 84.0% 3.5% Agriculture 22.7% Special Transactions 4.9%
Manufacturing was the major sector of trade for both the province and nationally. Manitoba exports of manufactured goods totaled to $7.1 billion or 70% of total exports originating from the province. Manitoba’s agricultural industry came in second, contributing 23% of total exports or $2.2 billion. Comparing Manitoba’s shares to Canada as a whole, Canada’s manufacturing industry resulted in an 84% share of total exports or $286.1 billion. The second‐highest category “Special Transactions” is not a true sector by definition, but represents commodities that cannot be assigned to a specific sector of the economy. Agriculture, while significant in Manitoba at 23%, contributed 3.5% of total exports from Canada or $12 billion worth of agricultural products.
62 From a weight perspective, as shown in Figure 5.4, Manitoba’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors occupied the top two positions at 56% (7.4 million tonnes) and 41% (5.4 million tonnes), respectively, while all other sectors altogether, supply less than 4% of the total exported volume. At the national level, the manufacturing sector at 58%, the mining industry at 24% and agriculture contributing 9% occupy the top three sectors in Canada.
Figure 5.4: Sector Contribution by Weight of Exports from Manitoba and Canada, 2004
Manitoba Canada
Wholesale Manuf. & Trade Others Whsale Trade 0.9% 1.3% Agriculture 0.9% 8.7% Whsale Trade 1.5% Special Transactions 4.5% Others Manufacturing Manufacturing 2.1% 40.8% 57.6% Agriculture Mining & 55.9% Manuf. 1.0%
Mining 23.7%
Special Transactions 1.1%
63 Manitoba Trade with the United States The United States is Manitoba’s primary trading partner. Figure 5.5 shows the United States share of total exports and imports by value from 2000 to 2004. Manitoba exports to the United States in 2004 accounted for 73% of all exports. There has been a noticeable downward trend in exports to the US since 2000 when it accounted for 82% of total exports. Imports from the US reached a low of 74% share in 2002, but has shown modest levels of increases in following years. Imports from the US to Manitoba increased to 79% and 81% in 2003 and 2004, respectively.
Figure 5.5: US Share of Total Goods Traded with Manitoba by Value, 2000 to 2004
90.0% 86.6%
85.0%
80.3% 80.7% 79.2% Exports 80.0% 82.1% 80.6% Total 78.5%
of 74.0% 75.0% 76.3% Share
% 73.0% 70.0%
65.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
US Share of Manitoba Exports US Share of Manitoba Imports
64 As shown in Figure 5.6, exports to the US peaked in 2000 at $7.9 billion. In 2004, the value of goods exported to the US was $7.2 billion, a decrease of approximately 9% from five years ago. The value of imports from the United States, although higher in value than exports, also decreased from 2000. In 2004, $8.5 billion worth of goods were imported to Manitoba from the US, an increase of 3% the year before but still a 10% decrease from 2000.
Overall, there has been a trade deficit each year; in 2004 the deficit was $1.2 billion.
Figure 5.6: Value of Goods Traded between Manitoba and the United States, 2000 to 2004
$10,000
$8,000 $9,432 $8,519 $8,399 $8,393 $6,000 $8,241 $7,964 $7,715 $7,614 $7,294 $7,093
Dollars $4,000
of
$2,000
Millions $0
‐$2,000 ‐$784 ‐$678 ‐$1,468 ‐$1,148 ‐$1,225 ‐$4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Exports Imports Trade Deficit
65 Figure 5.7 presents trade with the United States from a weight perspective. In 2004, 6.9 million metric tonnes of goods were exported to the US. While this figure remained stable from the year before, it was an 11% decrease from 2002, the highest weight noted over the five years. Imports in 2004 were the highest in the five years recorded, totaling to 5.2 million tonnes. This was a 15% increase from the year before.
Unlike Manitoba’s trade with the US on a value basis, the weight of exports to the US has been consistently higher than the weight of American imports. Consequently, this has created a trade surplus over the 5 year period. In 2004, this surplus was approximately 1.7 million tonnes in 2004.
Figure 5.7: Weight of Goods Traded between Manitoba and the United States, 2000 to 2004
9,000 8,000 7,000 7,753 7,660 7,618 Tonnes 6,000 6,994 6,945 5,000 Metric
3,823 of 5,280 4,000 4,651 4,575 3,000 4,370 3,837 3,249 2,000 3,102
Thousands 2,419 1,000 1,665 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Exports Imports Trade Surplus
66 Focusing on Manitoba’s modal split of exports, by value, 68% of all commodities exported to the United States were shipped by truck in 2004. This was followed by rail at 20%. Pipelines ranked third at 10% while the air and marine modes were nominal. By weight, road and rail were the two dominant modes of transportation at 42% and 40%, respectively. Figure 5.8 presents exports by mode, value and weight.
Figure 5.8: Modal Share of Manitoba Exports by Value and Weight, 2004
by Value by Weight Rail 40% Rail
20% Other 13% Road Air Other 68% 0% 10% Air Water 5% 1% Water Road 1% 42%
67 As Figure 5.9 shows, trucks in 2004 were the dominant mode for goods transported from the US. Trucks carried 87% of goods on a value basis. This was followed by rail and air both at 5% and pipelines at 3%. Marine, relative to the other modes, was negligible. By weight, trucks handled 71% of the goods. Rail had a larger share at 24%, followed by pipelines (4%) and air (1%).
Figure 5.9: Modal Share of Manitoba Imports by Value and Weight, 2004
by Value by Weight
Rail 5% Other Rail 3% 24% Road Air Road 71% 5% 87% Water Other 0% 4% Air Water 1% 0%
Manitoba Trade with Other Countries Manitoba’s trade with other countries in 2004 totaled to $2.7 billion of exports and $2 billion of imports resulting in a trade surplus of $0.6 billion. In the five‐year period covered by this report, 2002 had the largest trade deficit at $1.1 billion. Exports in this year amounted to $1.8 billion versus imports of $2.9 billion.
68 Figure 5.10 shows the value of goods traded with other countries and the resulting trade balances for 2000 to 2004.
Figure 5.10: Value of Goods Traded between Manitoba and Other Countries, 2000 to 2004
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500 $2,947
$2,000 $2,694 $2,206
$1,500 $2,160 $2,079 $2,064 $2,037 Dollars
$1,854 $1,741 of
$1,000 $1,461 $500 Millions $0 $280 $16 $46 $657 ‐$500
‐$1,000
‐$1,500 ‐$1,093 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Exports Imports Trade Balance
69 Figure 5.11 illustrates the exports and imports by value of Manitoba trading partners outside of the United States for 2004. Asia was the dominant trading partner in terms of value, receiving 55% ($1.5 billion) of Manitoba’s exports and providing 44% of imports ($880 million).
Figure 5.11: Value of Manitoba Trade by Region, 2004
Exports Imports ($2.69 billion) ($2.04 billion) W. Europe S. America W. Europe 15.5% S. America 5.8% Africa 33.2% Oceania 5.0% 3.5% 2.7% Oceania 1.0% N. America (excl. US) Africa N. America 10.7 % 0.3% (excl. US) 13% Middle East 3% Middle East E. Europe 1% 1.2% E. Europe Cntl. Am/ 1.1% Cntl. Am/ Antilles Asia Antilles Asia 9% 54.9% 13% 43.2%
70 Relative to measurement on a value basis, there is a greater difference in the weight of Manitoba exports versus the weight of imports to Manitoba. Figure 5.12 shows the much higher weight of exports relative to imports from 2000 to 2004. The highest export volume was recorded in 2004, at 6.2 million tonnes. This was a significant increase of 29% over 2003. Imports, although relatively small when compared to exported goods, reached their five‐year high in 2004, totaling to 472 million tonnes, a 37% increase over one year earlier.
Figure 5.12: Weight of Goods Traded between Manitoba and Other Countries, 2000 to 2004
7,000
5,753 6,000 6,226 4,732 5,000 4,473 Tonnes
3,982 5,029
4,000 4,816 3,148 Metric 4,231
of 3,000 3,475
2,000 Thousands
1,000 472 327 344 297 250 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Exports Imports Trade Surplus
71 Paralleling its trading position by value, Asia is also the primary trading partner for Manitoba in terms of weight as shown in Figure 5.13. Asia received 50% (3 million tonnes) of products followed by Western Europe at 15% (906 thousand tonnes). For imports, Asian products totaled to 180 thousand tonnes or 38% of the total weight of goods from other countries. Imports from Western Europe were 132 thousand tonnes or 28% of total imports.
Figure 5.13: Weight of Manitoba Trade by Region, 2004
Exports Imports
(6.2 million tonnes) (472 thousand tonnes)
W. Europe South America S. America W. Europe 14.6% 8.8% 6.5% 28.0% Oceania Africa Oceania 0.6% 5.3% 4.9% N. America (excl. US) 11. 6% N. America (excl. US) 15.1% Middle East Africa 5.0% 0.4% Middle East E. Eur ope 0.8% 0.4% E. Europe Cntl. 1.6% Am/Antilles Cntl. 3.2% Asia Am/Antilles Asia 38.1% 50.6% 4.5%
From a modal perspective, marine was the dominant mode of transportation for both value and weight of products exported to other countries. It was 84% ($2.3 billion) of the total by value and 92% (5.7 million tonnes) by weight. With respect to value, air comes in second at 7.2% of the total value or $195 million followed by road (4.3%) and rail (4.2%). By weight, rail follows marine at 5.4% while road and air contribute 1.3% and .8%, respectively.
72 Figure 5.14 shows the value and weight of exports to other countries by mode.8
Figure 5.14: Modal Share of Manitoba Exports by Value and Weight, 2004
by Value by Weight ($2.69 billion) (6.2 million tonnes)
Road Road 4.3% 1.3% Water Rail Rail 84.2% 4.2% 5.4% Water 92.4% Air Air 7.2% 0.8%
In terms of the modal split of imports9 (Figure 5.15) to Manitoba from other countries, road was the major mode of transport.
Figure 5.15: Modal Share of Manitoba Imports by Value and Weight, 2004
by Value by Weight ($2.04 billion) (472 thousand tonnes) Rail 3.0% Rail
Air 3.6% Road
23.1% Air 69.9% 4.0%
Other Road 1.4% 57.3% Other 1.0%
Water
Water 21.2% 15.7%
8Information for the modes of exports represents the last known mode of transport used to cross the international boundary, which may or may not be different from the mode of transport used to deliver the commodities within Canada (i.e. trans‐shipment effects). 9Modal information on trade imports represents the last known mode of transport of commodities by which it entered Canada’s borders to its port/province of clearance and recorded by Customs.
73 Of the $2.04 billion of goods imported, 57% were carried by truck. Air, at 23%, was the second ranked method of shipment by value. Marine and rail modes carried 16% and 3% of the total, respectively.
From a weight viewpoint, road was also the dominant mode of transportation at 70% of the total weight of goods imported. Marine ranked second accounting for 21% of the total weight cleared through Manitoba from countries outside of the United States.
74 Commodity‐Specific Market Information
Exports
While sector‐focused trade data described earlier can be used to direct industry‐based policy relative to trade, there are other approaches used in ascertaining the infrastructure needs of trade. Commodity‐based trade analysis provides an additional view in understanding the transportation infrastructure needs of trade. In short, sectors are not shipped, but their commodities may be shipped.
In this analysis, the commodities examined are those that tend to move through the “traditional” infrastructure modes such as air, water, rail and road. Commodities generally moved through hydroelectric towers or the pipeline network has less of an impact on the transportation network, as presented in this analysis. To remove the “pipeline and powerline” component from this analysis, the following commodities were deleted: • pipeline (HS Codes; 2709: “Crude Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Materials”; 2710: “Preparations of/Non‐Crude Petroleum Oils and Oils obtained from Bituminous Materials”; 2711: “Liquified Petroleum or Hydrocarbon Gases”; and 2713: “Petroleum Coke, Residues of Petroleum Oils or of Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals”, and • powerline (HS Code 271600: “Electrical Energy”)
Table 5.1 provides a basic overview of the value of commodities exported from Manitoba (exclusive of the “powerline and pipeline sector” commodities) over the last 5 years. The data clearly shows that primary resource goods are the dominant component of exports. The top 7 commodity groups are all of either an agricultural or mining nature.
75
Table 5.1: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1001 ‐ WHEAT 510,954 691,417 582,677 621,887 677,235 7502 ‐ UNWROUGHT NICKEL 338,569 337,296 328,440 382,246 511,617 1205 ‐ RAPE OR COLZA SEEDS (WHETHER OR NOT BROKEN) 254,238 281,732 200,243 450,811 430,082 0203 ‐ MEAT OF SWINE ‐ FRESH, CHILLED OR FROZEN 365,688 468,143 448,880 393,509 368,251 0103 ‐ LIVE SWINE 207,573 247,505 245,990 276,406 352,367 7402 ‐ UNREFINED COPPER; COPPER ANODES FOR ELECTROLYTIC REFINING 230,105 362,699 385,746 344,666 283,140 2004 ‐ POTATOES AND OTHER VEGETABLES ‐ FROZEN WITHOUT VINEGAR/ACETIC ACID 126,982 141,465 160,478 205,175 257,444 9403 ‐ FURNITURE ‐ OTHER THAN FOR MEDICAL, SURGICAL OR DENTAL USE 233,314 273,093 291,739 256,482 254,037 8702 ‐ BUSES AND OTHER PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER VEHICLES 2,762 1,869 7,682 146,663 250,882 8803 ‐ PARTS OF HELICOPTERS, AIRPLANES, BALLOONS, DIRIGIBLES AND SPACECRAFT 375,544 390,937 278,000 195,934 201,386 1514 ‐ RAPE (CANOLA), COLZA OR MUSTARD OIL AND THEIR FRACTIONS ‐ NOT CHEMICALLY MODIFIED 111,502 109,596 139,346 204,669 192,169 8707 ‐ BODIES FOR MOTOR VEHICLES 376,906 426,747 323,459 239,767 191,340 4410 ‐ PARTICLE BOARD OF WOOD OR OTHER LIGNEOUS MATERIAL 93,315 80,203 86,505 130,149 163,053 3004 – MEDICAMENTS – PUT UP IN MEASURED DOSES OR PACKED FOR RETAIL USE 51,427 48,840 46,549 83,654 137,334 0713 ‐ LEGUMINOUS VEGETABLES ‐ DRIED AND SHELLED 117,803 155,339 138,149 147,425 133,970 8431 ‐ PARTS FOR MACHINERY (HS 8425‐ 8430) 104,292 123,212 139,236 118,200 129,459 8701 ‐ TRACTORS 144,102 35,736 64,207 86,376 120,174 4801 ‐ NEWSPRINT ‐ IN ROLLS OR SHEETS 116,344 118,365 133,927 140,634 116,011 4418 ‐ WINDOWS, DOORS, SHINGLES AND SHAKES, PANELS AND OTHER BUILDERS JOINERS AND CARPENTRY OF WOOD 81,677 95,679 95,985 80,346 113,161 8433 ‐ HARVESTING, THRESHING AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND MOWING MACHINERY 67,642 94,448 100,116 90,167 106,843
SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 3,910,739 4,484,321 4,197,354 4,595,166 4,989,955 OTHERS 4,551,418 3,892,344 4,092,198 3,802,204 3,742,607 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 8,462,157 8,376,665 8,289,552 8,397,370 8,732,562 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
76 The highest ranked manufactured product category is furniture (which was the 8th ranked commodity). This is consistent with findings for the last 3 years. Aerospace continues to be a strong sector, with “parts for helicopters, airplanes, balloons, dirigibles and spacecraft” staying in the “Top 10” commodity groups. “Buses and other public transport passenger vehicles”, a relatively minor component as recently as 2002, rose to rank 9th overall in 2004, ahead of the major aerospace category.
The top 20 product groups are taking increased importance in terms of exports. In 2000, 46% of Manitoba’s exports were in the “Top 20” commodity groups. This percentage has risen steadily (except for 2002) to 57% in 2004.
While commodities such as wheat may represent a stable component of Manitoba’s export strength, commodities such a unwrought nickel, canola, live swine, potatoes, buses, particle board, and prepacked pharmaceuticals have recently been well above their 5‐year average.
While Table 5.1 provides a global view of Manitoba’s exports, it does not focus on the importance of trading partners to the south; the U.S. and Mexico. While total Manitoba’s exports, excluding powerline and pipeline commodities, were about $8.7 Billion in 2004, trade to the USA represented almost three‐quarters (72%) of the value of that trade (as shown in Table 6.2).
2000 continues to represent the “high water mark” for exports to the USA within the last 5 years, accounting for $6.7 Billion. Manitoba’s exports to the USA dropped to $6.2 Billion in 2003, down 8.3% from the high in 2000. Exports in 2004 recovered somewhat relative to 2003, rising 2.5% to $6.3 Billion. Compared with Manitoba’s global trade mix, the composition of the “Top 20” commodities to the USA reflect a greater grain self‐ sufficiency in the USA. Consequently, there is less trade in these goods, while metals and minerals, and processed products (both foodstuffs and manufactured) have grown in importance.
77
Table 5.2: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports to the USA (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0103 ‐ LIVE SWINE 207,334 247,505 245,990 276,222 352,367 7402 ‐ UNREFINED COPPER; COPPER ANODES FOR ELECTROLYTIC REFINING 230,105 362,699 385,746 344,666 283,140 9403 ‐ FURNITURE ‐ OTHER THAN FOR MEDICAL, SURGICAL OR DENTAL USE 232,311 272,799 291,301 256,286 252,670 8702 ‐ BUSES AND OTHER PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER VEHICLES 2,762 1,869 7,682 146,663 250,882 2004 ‐ POTATOES AND OTHER VEGETABLES ‐ FROZEN WITHOUT VINEGAR/ACETIC ACID 126,585 141,228 160,400 201,514 239,583 8707 ‐ BODIES FOR MOTOR VEHICLES 376,904 426,747 323,422 239,603 190,706 8803 ‐ PARTS OF HELICOPTERS, AIRPLANES, BALLOONS, DIRIGIBLES AND SPACECRAFT 373,111 387,764 265,604 182,610 187,606 1514 ‐ RAPE (CANOLA), COLZA OR MUSTARD OIL AND THEIR FRACTIONS ‐ NOT CHEMICALLY MODIFIED 88,495 82,135 130,535 160,791 185,132 0203 ‐ MEAT OF SWINE ‐ FRESH, CHILLED OR FROZEN 213,174 236,384 213,506 213,779 177,424 4410 ‐ PARTICLE BOARD OF WOOD OR OTHER LIGNEOUS MATERIAL 93,315 80,190 86,505 130,149 163,011 3004 ‐ MEDICAMENTS ‐ PUT UP IN MEASURED DOSES OR PACKED FOR RETAIL USE 49,174 47,887 43,056 82,024 135,641 4801 ‐ NEWSPRINT ‐ IN ROLLS OR SHEETS 116,344 118,365 133,927 140,634 116,011 8431 ‐ PARTS FOR MACHINERY (HS 8425‐ 8430) 99,490 117,239 133,398 104,209 112,284 4418 ‐ WINDOWS, DOORS, SHINGLES AND SHAKES, PANELS AND OTHER BUILDERS JOINERS AND CARPENTRY OF WOOD 75,506 90,362 93,525 78,441 110,657 8708 ‐ MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS (EXCL. BODY, CHASSIS AND ENGINES) 121,910 112,803 87,919 87,979 104,103 3920 ‐ OTHER FILM, PLATES, SHEETS, FOIL AND STRIP OF PLASTICS ‐ NON‐CELLULAR 75,473 99,647 95,914 104,116 100,428 8701 ‐ TRACTORS 141,815 35,012 59,166 79,279 98,988 1004 ‐ OATS 83,531 87,831 84,454 127,459 98,052 8433 ‐ HARVESTING, THRESHING AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND MOWING MACHINERY 63,044 89,055 91,556 78,023 89,835 3102 ‐ MINERAL OR CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS, NITROGENOUS 55,020 77,614 80,532 62,964 87,628
SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 2,827,403 3,117,136 3,016,140 3,099,414 3,338,152 OTHERS 3,894,188 3,099,341 3,318,463 2,990,450 2,860,587 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 6,721,591 6,297,251 6,436,990 6,161,444 6,316,764 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
78 Manitobaʹs exports to Mexico have experienced significant growth over the last 5 years, rising to over one‐quarter of a Billion dollars ($261M) in 2004 (Table 5.3).
Table 5.3: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports to Mexico (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1205 ‐ RAPE OR COLZA SEEDS (WHETHER OR NOT BROKEN) 49,752 54,527 40,421 85,408 131,039 1001 ‐ WHEAT 31,782 53,161 47,531 57,831 42,892 0203 ‐ MEAT OF SWINE ‐ FRESH, CHILLED OR FROZEN 8,829 16,834 12,211 19,533 33,641 1107 ‐ MALT 10,368 21,076 14,580 10,333 10,780 0206 ‐ EDIBLE OFFAL ‐ BOVINE, SWINE, SHEEP, GOAT, HORSE, ASS, MULE, HINNY ‐ FRESH, CHILLED OR FROZEN 3,353 9,831 9,310 9,076 7,454 2004 ‐ POTATOES AND OTHER VEGETABLES ‐ FROZEN WITHOUT VINEGAR/ACETIC ACID 14 ‐‐ 77 1,789 5,658 1008 ‐ BUCKWHEAT, MILLET, CANARY SEED; OTHER CEREALS 5,056 4,372 7,088 3,410 3,822 4107 ‐ LEATHER OF OTHER ANIMALS NES (WITHOUT HAIR ON) ‐‐ ‐‐ 17,485 4,853 3,495 0209 ‐ PIG FAT LEAN MEAT FREE AND POULTRY FAT ‐ UNRENDERED CURED ‐‐ 16 57 653 2,337 7228 ‐ OTHER BARS AND RODS OF OTHER ALLOY STEEL; OTHER ANGLES, SHAPES, SECTIONS NES OF STEEL 3,022 2,041 1,927 1,735 1,913 7216 ‐ ANGLES, SHAPES AND SECTIONS OF IRON OR NON‐ALLOY STEEL 1,233 1,168 1,352 783 1,832 4823 ‐ OTHER PAPER OR PAPERBOARD ARTICLES OR PRODUCTS 9 1 60 265 1,656 0504 ‐ GUTS, BLADDERS AND STOMACHS OF ANIMALS (OTHER THAN FISH) ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 212 1,534 1204 ‐ LINSEED 157 696 406 735 1,399 1206 ‐ SUNFLOWER SEEDS (WHETHER OR NOT BROKEN) 1,073 1,992 978 635 1,029 8517 ‐ ELECTRICAL APPARATUS FOR TELEPHONIC LINE USE (INCL. TELEPHONES AND MODEMS) ‐‐ ‐‐ 0 406 779 4407 ‐ LUMBER (THICKNESS >6MM) 181 756 1,389 1,242 631 1103 ‐ CEREAL GROATS, MEAL AND PELLETS 834 997 1,228 1,246 621 3003 ‐ MEDICAMENTS ‐ NOT PUT UP IN MEASURED DOSES NOR PACKED FOR RETAIL USE ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 215 580 8431 ‐ PARTS FOR MACHINERY (HS 8425‐ 8430) ‐‐ ‐‐ 245 169 563 SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 115,663 167,468 156,345 200,528 253,655 OTHERS 13,851 21,334 12,001 11,594 6,980 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 129,514 188,802 168,346 212,122 260,635 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
79 While Manitoba exports to the U.S. are experiencing increased focus on the top 20 commodities, the concentration is even greater for exports to Mexico. The “Top 20” commodity groups accounted for virtually all (97%) of the value of Manitoba exports to Mexico in 2004. The top 3 commodity groups; canola, wheat and swine meat, represented 80% of the value of Manitoba’s exports to Mexico in 2004.
The concentration on the top 3 commodity groups was driven by strong growth in the value of 2004 canola exports to Mexico (53% above 2003 levels), and continued growth in sales of swine meat (72% above 2003 levels, and an increase of 279% from levels in 2000).
Imports
Table 5.4 provides a basic overview of the value of commodities imported into Manitoba (exclusive of the “powerline and pipeline sector” commodities) over the last 5 years. While the export data reflect the focus on the primary resource sectors in Manitoba’s exports, the import pattern is more complex. In 2004, about one‐third (35%) of Manitoba’s imports were associated with the Top 20 commodity groups, lower than the 57% of Manitoba exports linked to the Top 20 commodity groups.
Tractors, harvesting equipment, motor vehicles and heavy machinery comprised the top 5 commodity groups in 2004, in part likely needed to produce or extract the main commodity groups in Manitoba’s “basket” of exports.
Also, while there is some variability in imports from year to year, there appears to be a greater level of stability within commodity groups in import purchases than in export sales.
80
Table 5.4: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 8701 ‐ TRACTORS 197,951 230,963 340,033 362,197 376,721 8703 ‐ MOTOR VEHICLES FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT (OTHER THAN BUSES/PUBLIC 314,122 402,489 426,340 386,576 355,797 TRANSPORT) 8429 ‐ SELF‐PROPELLED BULLDOZERS, SCRAPERS, GRADERS, LEVELERS, SHOVEL 217,663 216,339 228,786 292,774 331,279 LOADERS, TAPING MACHINES AND THE LIKE 8433 ‐ HARVESTING, THRESHING AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND MOWING 221,916 247,014 252,648 285,582 271,397 MACHINERY 8708 ‐ MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS (EXCL. 322,459 270,745 244,637 216,665 228,670 BODY, CHASSIS AND ENGINES) 4902 ‐ NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND 194,039 201,703 212,442 206,167 201,426 PERIODICALS 8411 ‐ TURBO‐JETS, TURBO‐PROPELLERS 164,062 132,340 158,694 178,495 190,359 AND OTHER GAS TURBINES 3808 ‐ PESTICIDES ‐ FOR RETAIL SALE OR 139,755 199,144 221,550 185,497 189,016 FORMULATED 8471 ‐ COMPUTERS AND COMPUTER 72,221 82,506 95,237 115,119 167,271 PERIPHERALS 8716 ‐ TRAILERS AND OTHER WHEELED 121,054 108,867 132,274 132,083 162,509 VEHICLES NES 8481 ‐ TAPS, COCKS, VALVES AND SIMILAR APPLIANCES FOR PIPES, BOILER 148,921 175,720 153,862 142,501 158,663 SHELLS, TANKS, VATS AND THE LIKE 4011 ‐ NEW PNEUMATIC TIRES OF RUBBER 128,851 116,654 131,909 110,439 132,250 9403 ‐ FURNITURE ‐ OTHER THAN FOR 105,232 111,998 109,675 109,338 120,685 MEDICAL, SURGICAL OR DENTAL USE 2922 ‐ OXYGEN FUNCTION AMINO 11,954 16,935 26,553 75,404 117,551 COMPOUNDS 8413 ‐ PUMPS FOR LIQUIDS; LIQUID 94,015 96,321 92,151 97,073 108,292 ELEVATORS 8431 ‐ PARTS FOR MACHINERY (HS 8425‐ 76,924 74,596 79,187 88,926 104,289 8430) 8414 ‐ AIR/VACUUM PUMPS, AIR/GAS COMPRESSORS AND FANS; VENTILATING 95,187 104,518 84,187 102,413 103,923 HOODS WITH FANS 5703 ‐ CARPETS ‐ WOOL /FINE HAIR ‐ 89,373 89,843 88,474 87,535 94,596 TUFTED 9504 ‐ ARTICLES FOR FUNFAIR, TABLE OR 17,281 23,039 29,521 34,258 93,011 PARLOUR GAMES 2304 ‐ SOYA‐BEAN OIL‐CAKE AND OTHER 58,286 66,459 75,812 85,323 90,600 SOLID RESIDUES
SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 2,791,266 2,968,193 3,183,972 3,294,365 3,598,305 OTHERS 8,081,019 7,462,012 8,095,080 6,852,339 6,805,952 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 10,872,285 10,430,205 11,279,052 10,146,704 10,404,257 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
81 Table 5.5 provides a basic overview of the value of commodities imported into Manitoba from the U.S. over the last 5 years. Since imports from the U.S. represent 80% of Manitoba’s imports, the similarity with the pattern presented in Table 6.4 is understandable.
Tractors, harvesting equipment, motor vehicles and heavy machinery comprised the top 4 commodity groups in 2004, with newspapers, journals and periodicals rounding out the Top 5. Virtually all of Manitoba’s imports of some major commodities (newspapers & journals, carpets, soybean oil‐cake, trailers, articles for funfair, table or parlour games) were sourced from the U.S. in 2004. Other commodities’ sourcing was less concentrated in the U.S. (pesticides: 59%). Computers and computer peripherals, within the Top 10 globally, does not register within the Top 20 as an import from the U.S.
82
Table 5.5: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports from U.S. (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 8703 ‐ MOTOR VEHICLES FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT (OTHER THAN BUSES/PUBLIC 296,516 377,559 402,148 365,420 339,707 TRANSPORT) 8701 ‐ TRACTORS 188,646 216,598 314,582 332,412 339,176 8429 ‐ SELF‐PROPELLED BULLDOZERS, SCRAPERS, GRADERS, LEVELERS, SHOVEL 178,483 182,059 205,813 267,323 294,466 LOADERS, TAPING MACHINES AND THE LIKE 8433 ‐ HARVESTING, THRESHING AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND MOWING 211,070 224,846 218,522 254,241 240,674 MACHINERY 4902 ‐ NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND 193,300 201,136 211,874 205,264 200,651 PERIODICALS 8708 ‐ MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS (EXCL. 278,926 243,032 213,549 184,292 182,656 BODY, CHASSIS AND ENGINES) 8411 ‐ TURBO‐JETS, TURBO‐PROPELLERS 148,337 114,787 144,405 159,872 169,754 AND OTHER GAS TURBINES 8716 ‐ TRAILERS AND OTHER WHEELED 118,772 106,793 128,857 129,135 159,840 VEHICLES NES 8481 ‐ TAPS, COCKS, VALVES AND SIMILAR APPLIANCES FOR PIPES, BOILER 135,494 158,766 135,268 116,287 128,316 SHELLS, TANKS, VATS AND THE LIKE 4011 ‐ NEW PNEUMATIC TIRES OF RUBBER 115,919 105,773 119,088 100,643 119,127 3808 ‐ PESTICIDES ‐ FOR RETAIL SALE OR 103,793 145,647 182,294 118,412 110,487 FORMULATED 5703 ‐ CARPETS ‐ WOOL /FINE HAIR ‐ 89,127 89,312 87,764 86,741 93,891 TUFTED 8414 ‐ AIR/VACUUM PUMPS, AIR/GAS COMPRESSORS AND FANS; VENTILATING 79,805 95,534 77,470 89,166 92,406 HOODS WITH FANS 9504 ‐ ARTICLES FOR FUNFAIR, TABLE OR 15,476 19,199 27,828 32,481 91,334 PARLOUR GAMES 2304 ‐ SOYA‐BEAN OIL‐CAKE AND OTHER 58,285 66,459 75,812 85,301 90,573 SOLID RESIDUES 8431 ‐ PARTS FOR MACHINERY (HS 8425‐ 65,423 65,263 69,118 76,230 88,960 8430) 8413 ‐ PUMPS FOR LIQUIDS; LIQUID 80,292 82,080 75,875 78,427 88,507 ELEVATORS 9403 ‐ FURNITURE ‐ OTHER THAN FOR 83,581 89,278 78,018 78,352 85,788 MEDICAL, SURGICAL OR DENTAL USE 8418 ‐ REFRIGERATORS AND FREEZERS; HEAT PUMPS OTHER THAN FOR AIR 66,182 50,174 64,093 57,391 76,921 CONDITIONING 8408 ‐ DIESEL OR SEMI‐DIESEL ENGINES 67,804 65,061 42,983 65,572 75,515
SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 2,575,231 2,699,356 2,875,361 2,882,962 3,068,749 OTHERS 6,836,356 5,667,077 5,456,286 5,103,953 5,296,434 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 9,411,587 8,366,433 8,331,647 7,986,915 8,365,183 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
83 Mexico, while being the destination for $261M of Manitoba’s exports in 2004, is the origin for $181M of Manitoba’s imports (Table 5.6). Manitoba’s imports from Mexico are fairly concentrated in the Top 20 commodity groups, which, in 2004, accounted for 65% of the value of Manitoba’s imports sourced from Mexico. Machinery and mechanical/automotive/electrical components are significant factors. Mexico’s pattern of exports to Manitoba is distinctive in its focus on the clothing industry and in satisfying some of Manitoba’s fruit and vegetable import requirements.
Table 5.6: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports from Mexico (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities) ($ ,000) (Sorted by 2004 Ranking) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 33291 ‐ Metal Valve Manufacturing 6,986 8,210 7,926 12,702 14,415 33531 ‐ Electrical Equipment Manufacturing 7,312 8,032 7,973 10,089 12,646 31523 ‐ Womenʹs and Girlsʹ Cut and Sew 11,260 20,013 16,952 12,702 9,394 Clothing Manufacturing 33361 ‐ Engine, Turbine and Power 5,515 8,161 7,033 8,976 9,347 Transmission Equipment Manufacturing 31522 ‐ Menʹs and Boysʹ Cut and Sew Clothing 2,166 2,469 8,168 9,515 9,310 Manufacturing 33611 ‐ Automobile and Light‐Duty Motor 12,935 20,153 18,122 18,069 7,177 Vehicle Manufacturing 33451 ‐ Navigational, Measuring, Medical and 1,968 2,383 2,996 5,846 6,966 Control Instruments Manufacturing 33636 ‐ Motor Vehicle Seating and Interior 38 24 125 4,356 6,467 Trim Manufacturing 33721 ‐ Office Furniture (including Fixtures) 3,681 3,145 3,468 2,554 4,931 Manufacturing 33592 ‐ Communication and Energy Wire and 4,321 5,209 5,015 4,607 4,325 Cable Manufacturing 33612 ‐ Heavy‐Duty Truck Manufacturing 0 721 21,884 15,588 3,910 33632 ‐ Motor Vehicle Electrical and Electronic 1,202 1,172 1,377 1,781 3,909 Equipment Manufacturing 31491 ‐ Textile Bag and Canvas Mills 44 93 613 4,122 3,745 33341 ‐ Ventilation, Heating, Air‐Conditioning and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 3,711 4,054 2,840 3,194 3,652 Manufacturing 31321 ‐ Broad‐Woven Fabric Mills 419 1,124 3,110 7,813 3,181 11121 ‐ Vegetable and Melon Farming 3,379 3,770 3,546 3,129 3,163 33411 ‐ Computer and Peripheral Equipment 1,042 2,429 2,377 2,005 3,030 Manufacturing 33512 ‐ Lighting Fixture Manufacturing 423 372 434 86 2,994 33712 ‐ Household and Institutional Furniture 3,503 3,083 3,301 1,890 2,855 Manufacturing 11133 ‐ Non‐Citrus Fruit and Tree Nut 6,994 7,869 6,944 6,644 2,789 Farming
SUB‐TOTAL (Top 20 Commodity Groups) 76,899 102,486 124,204 135,668 118,206 OTHERS 66,388 67,378 62,307 57,190 62,906 TOTAL (excluding Powerline & Pipeline) 143,287 169,864 186,511 192,858 181,112 Source: Statistics Canada http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/sc_mrkti/tdst/engdoc/tr_homep.html
84 Commodity Overview
• Manitoba’s top 7 commodity groups for export (by value) are all of either an agricultural or mining nature.
• Manitoba’s highest ranked manufactured product category for export is furniture, consistent with findings for the last 3 years.
• Aerospace continues to be a strong sector, with “parts for helicopters, airplanes, balloons, dirigibles and spacecraft” staying in the “Top 10” commodity groups.
• “Buses and other public transport passenger vehicles”, a relatively minor component as recently as 2002, rose to rank 9th overall in 2004, ahead of the major aerospace category.
• The top 20 product groups are taking increased importance in terms of exports. In 2000, 46% of Manitoba’s exports were in the “Top 20” commodity groups. This percentage has risen to 57% in 2004.
• While commodities such as wheat may represent a stable component of Manitoba’s export strength, commodities such a unwrought nickel, canola, live swine, potatoes, buses, particle board, and prepacked pharmaceuticals have recently been well above their 5‐year average.
• While total Manitoba’s exports, excluding powerline and pipeline commodities, were about $8.7 Billion in 2004, trade to the USA represented almost three‐ quarters (72%) of the value of that trade. Consequently, the commodity pattern bears a strong resemblance to that for global exports.
• Manitobaʹs exports to Mexico have experienced significant growth over the last 5 years, rising to over one‐quarter of a Billion dollars ($261M) in 2004 (Table 6.3).
• The “Top 20” commodity groups accounted for virtually all (97%) of the value of Manitoba exports to Mexico in 2004. The top 3 commodity groups; canola, wheat and swine meat, represented 80% of the value of Manitoba’s exports to Mexico in 2004.
• While the export data reflect the focus on the primary resource sectors in Manitoba’s exports, the import pattern is more complex. In 2004, about one‐third (35%) of Manitoba’s imports were associated with the Top 20 commodity groups.
• Tractors, harvesting equipment, motor vehicles and heavy machinery comprised the top 5 commodity groups in 2004.
85 • There appears to be a greater level of stability within commodity groups in import purchases than in export sales.
• Imports from the U.S. represent 80% of Manitoba’s imports.
• Tractors, harvesting equipment, motor vehicles and heavy machinery comprised the top 4 commodity groups imported from the U.S. in 2004, with newspapers, journals and periodicals rounding out the Top 5.
• Mexico, while being the destination for $261M of Manitoba’s exports in 2004, is the origin for $181M of Manitoba’s imports.
• Manitoba’s imports from Mexico are fairly concentrated in the Top 20 commodity groups, which, in 2004, accounted for 65% of the value of Manitoba’s imports sourced from Mexico.
• In addition to machinery and mechanical/automotive/electrical components, Mexico’s pattern of exports to Manitoba shows strength in the clothing industry and in the fruit and vegetable market.
86 Flow‐Through Trade vs. Manitoba‐based Trade
The previous commodity‐based analysis provides an indication of the usage of non‐ pipeline and powerline commodities being exported from Manitoba and, as such, gives an indication of the transportation infrastructure usage by those commodities. However, much of what is shipped out of Manitoba is done so with Manitoba acting as the conduit for other jurisdictions’ trade. As stated in the 2005 Competitiveness of the Mid‐Continent Corridor (MCC) report:
Focusing on Manitoba’s interests, making east‐west connections through Winnipeg as seamless as possible will enhance the use of Winnipeg as the “funnel” at the northern aperture to the MCC. In practice, this funnel is already operational, with Winnipeg being a preferred conduit point for entry into the Midwestern USA from northwest prairie points such as Edmonton.10
Most commodity‐specific data describing the outbound trade from Canada records the point of exit and the “point of origin.” However, this latter point includes warehousing or transshipping such that a commodity “stored” in Manitoba prior to export is generally classified as a Manitoba origin commodity.
There are many commodities shipped out of Canada through Manitoba that have negligible production from within Manitoba. An extreme example would be the pipeline sector exports of oil and gas that leave the province via pipeline into the U.S. Manitoba’s domestic production of petroleum products is far below the level being exported across Manitoba’s borders. This presents an opportunity to quantify the value of commodities which use Manitoba as the “funnel” to export markets.
Simply put, what share of export of a commodity is export of another province or territory utilizing Manitoba’s transportation infrastructure? Quantification of the percentage is complicated somewhat by the fact that a certain percentage of Manitoba’s own exports also leave Canada via other provinces. For example, about 43% of Manitoba’s $10 Billion in exports left via other jurisdictions in 2004. One may argue that in order to compare “apples to apples,” the component of Manitoba’s exports which leave Canada via other provinces should be deleted from the analysis. However, if the objective is to view the effect on use of Manitoba’s transportation infrastructure, then those Manitoba exports leaving via other jurisdictions should, in fact, be included as the Manitoba transportation infrastructure is used to move those exports towards those ultimate points of departure from Canada.
10 University of Manitoba Transport Institute, Competitiveness of the Mid‐Continent Corridor, P.3 Unpublished paper produced for Manitoba Transportation & Government Services, March, 2005
87 Table 5.7 summarizes the distribution of sourcing for the Top 20 commodity groups leaving Manitoba in 2004. Mineral fuels (essentially pipeline sector commodities) comprise the largest single group in value, with $6.2 Billion leaving Canada via Manitoba. However, Manitoba contributes only a small percentage (15%) of that value, and likely a significant share of that value only accrues to Manitoba due to commodities being warehoused or stored in the province (and therefore being defined as a Manitoba commodity).
88
Table 5.7: Top 20 Exports Departing via Manitoba, 2004 Pct Leaving Exports From Total Exports MB Coming all Prov incl From other From other MB leaving Manitoba Prov leaving Prov via MB Exports via MB Value 27 Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of Their Distillation; Bituminous Substances; Mineral Waxes 84.6% $6,206,874,259 $955,449,030 $5,251,425,229 10 Cereals 10.3% $1,209,644,660 $1,084,729,910 $124,914,750 84 Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances; Parts Thereof 38.1% $1,143,993,050 $708,317,296 $435,675,754 44 Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal 44.4% $831,011,636 $461,918,151 $369,093,485 12 Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits; Miscellaneous Grains, Seeds and Fruit; Industrial or Medicinal Plants; Straw and Fodder 18.4% $829,008,980 $676,286,284 $152,722,696 87 Vehicles Other Than Railway or Tramway Rolling‐ Stock, and Parts and Accessories Thereof 8.1% $822,096,469 $755,163,353 $66,933,116 48 Paper and Paperboard; Articles of Paper Pulp, of Paper or of Paperboard 57.2% $647,568,587 $277,006,119 $370,562,468 02 Meat and Meat and Edible Meat Offal 24.8% $556,921,466 $418,928,286 $137,993,180 75 Nickel and Articles Thereof 5.6% $542,568,828 $512,027,225 $30,541,603 31 Fertilisers 77.9% $499,502,353 $110,587,660 $388,914,693 85 Electrical Machinery and Equipment and Parts Thereof; Sound Recorders and Reproducers, Television Image and Sound Recorders and Reproducers, and Parts and Accessories of Such Articles 61.0% $476,103,562 $185,527,295 $290,576,267 39 Plastics and Articles Thereof 34.0% $441,752,218 $291,377,000 $150,375,218 94 Furniture; Bedding, Mattresses, Mattress Supports, Cushions and Similar Stuffed Furnishings; Lamps and Lighting Fittings, Not Elsewhere Specified or Included; Illuminated Signs, Illuminated Name‐Plates and the Like; Prefabricated Buildings 20.5% $433,662,978 $344,821,108 $88,841,870 01 Live Animals 11.1% $412,280,374 $366,329,304 $45,951,070 27 Electrical Energy 0.0% $375,902,911 $375,902,911 $0 88 Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts Thereof 37.8% $323,735,871 $201,245,018 $122,490,853 15 Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils and Their Cleavage Products; Prepared Edible Fats; Animal or Vegetable Waxes 34.2% $300,267,759 $197,507,434 $102,760,325 20 Preparations of Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts or Other Parts of Plants 13.7% $298,652,037 $257,791,396 $40,860,641 74 Copper and Articles Thereof 1.4% $290,385,013 $286,436,932 $3,948,081 49 Printed Books, Newspapers, Pictures and Other Products of the Printing Industry; Manuscripts, Typescripts and Plans 13.0% $201,186,904 $175,080,406 $26,106,498
Total of Top 20 Commodities 48.7% $16,843,119,915 $8,642,432,118 $8,200,687,797 Others 31.3% $1,959,206,485 $1,345,933,729 $613,272,756 Total of Non‐MB Commodities that exited via MB and MB Exports 46.9% $18,802,326,400 $9,988,365,847 $8,813,960,553
Cereals ranked second overall in 2004, with about $1.2 Billion departing Canada via Manitoba, with only 10% coming from other provinces prior to leaving Canada. “Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances; Parts Thereof” is the
89 third largest export via Manitoba (on a value basis), and a fairly significant percentage (62%) is still classified as Manitoba sourced. The fourth‐ranked commodity, “Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal,” also includes a significant Manitoba component (56%).
Some of the Top 20 commodities leaving via Manitoba are often associated with the Manitoba economy. For example, almost all “copper and articles thereof”, “electrical energy” and “nickel and articles thereof” that leave Manitoba do so as a result of Manitoba production or processing. Also, $822 Million of “Vehicles Other Than Railway or Tramway Rolling‐Stock, and Parts and Accessories Thereof” left via Manitoba in 2004, with only 8% from other provinces. Manitoba’s air transportation equipment industry (aircraft, spacecraft, etc.) is also well‐represented in the Top 20, with only 38% of $324 Million of exports leaving via Manitoba originating in other provinces or territories.
Figure 5.16: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Departing Through Manitoba but Non‐MB Sourced, 2004 ($ Millions)
Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, etc. ($6,207) 84.6%
Fertilisers ($499) 77.9%
Electrical Machinery, Parts ($476) 61.0%
Paper, Paperboard, Pulp ($648) 57.2%
Wood, Articles of Wood ($831) 44.4%
Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery ($1,144) 38.1%
Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts Thereof ($324) 37.8%
Animal, vegetable fats oils, products ($300) 34.2%
Plastics and Articles Thereof ($442) 34.0%
Meat, Edible Meat Offal ($557) 24.8%
Furniture, Bedding, Mattresses, etc ($434) 20.5%
Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits, etc ($829) 18.4%
Electrical Energy ($390) 0.0%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
On a percentage of exports being non‐Manitoba sourced (Figure 5.16), “wood, and articles of wood” ranked 5th in 2004, followed by “nuclear reactors, boilers and related machinery” (38%), similar to the non‐Manitoba share of “aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof.” As expected, components of the “powerline and pipeline” sectors “bookend” the distribution, with 85% of the “pipeline” component being pass‐through commodities, with essentially all of the value of the $390M “powerline” component (electrical energy) being Manitoba‐based.
90 Trade Flow‐Through Excluding Manitoba’s Components
Excluding Manitoba’s contribution to export via Manitoba’s transportation infrastructure yields a significantly different picture. Also, removing the “powerline and pipeline” sectors dramatically shift the picture of the level of use of Manitoba’s transportation infrastructure by other exporting provinces. As illustrated in Figure 5.17, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario‐originating commodities collectively account for about 90% of the value of commodities exiting via Manitoba but originating outside Manitoba (excluding powerline and pipeline sectors). Each of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario accounted for roughly one‐third of the value of these exports, with Saskatchewan having a slight lead, at 34% of exports leaving MB (excluding Manitoba’s exports and excluding the powerline and pipeline sectors).
Figure 5.17: Percentage in Value and Weight of Major Exports Leaving Via Manitoba But Originating in Other Provinces, 2004 Value Weight ($3.2 Billion) (6.03 Million tonnes)
Alberta Other Other 14.1% 1% 0.2% On tario Alberta 27% 29% Ontario 15.8%
BC 5.9%
BC 9% Saskatchewan 64.0%
Saskatchewan 34%
In addition to information on a value basis, Figure 5.17 also presents weight‐based data, showing the distribution of the 6 million tonnes of non‐“powerline and pipeline commodities” departing from Manitoba but being sourced from other provinces or territories. Saskatchewan’s dominates on a weight basis, accounting for about 2/3 of the commodities being shipped via Manitoba. By far the largest single contribution to that large Saskatchewan value comes from fertilizers, which amount to 2.7 million tonnes or about 56% of Saskatchewan’s shipments through Manitoba, and 36% of the weight of all non‐Manitoba commodities being exported via Manitoba (excluding powerline and pipeline commodities).
91 After Saskatchewan’s fertilizer shipments, other single commodity groups contribute relatively little to the overall weight of commodities leaving via Manitoba. Saskatchewan’s cereals (6.4%), Ontario’s “paper or paperboard; Articles of Pulp, etc.” (5.7%), Ontario’s “wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal” (3.9%), and Saskatchewan’s “oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, etc.” (3.6%) were the other main contributors on a weight basis.
On an expenditure basis, each of the main provinces of origin also presented unique patterns of commodities flowing through Manitoba. These patterns are presented in Figures 5.18 through 5.21.
Figure 5.18: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in BC and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ($ Million) ($299)
Nuclear Reactors, 26.4% Boilers, Machinery ($79)
Wood, Articles of Wood 23.8% ($71)
Electrical Machinery, 10.9% Parts ($32)
Plastics and Articles 8.9% Thereof ($27)
Paper, Paperboard, Pulp 8.4% ($25)
Furniture, Bedding, etc 5.4% ($16)
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
92 Figure 5.19: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Alberta and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ($ Million) ($917)
Electrical Machinery, 25.6% Parts ($235)
Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, 11.8% Machinery ($108)
Meat and Edible Meat 9.6% Offal ($88)
Plastics and Articles 8.9% Thereof ($82)
Furniture, Bedding, etc 7.2% ($66)
Wood and Articles of 6.0% Wood ($55)
Oil Seeds and Oleaginous 5.7% Fruits ($52)
Cereals ($42) 4.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Figure 5.20: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Saskatchewan and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ($ Million) ($1,082)
Fertilisers ($354) 32.7%
Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery ($108) 10.0%
Wood and Articles of Wood ($99) 9.2%
Oil Seeds and Oleaginous Fruits ($95) 8.8%
Animal or Veg Fats etc ($89) 8.2%
Cereals ($79) 7.3%
Inorganic Chem., Org or Inorg Comp ($56) 5.1%
Paper, Paperboard, Pulp ($51) 4.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
93 Figure 5.21: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Ontario and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ($ Million) ($859)
Paper, Paperboard, Pulp ($273) 31.8%
Wood and Articles of Wood ($143) 16.6%
Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery ($134) 15.6%
Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts Thereof ($122) 14.2%
Meat and Edible Meat Offal ($40) 4.6%
Prep of Fruit, Veg, Nuts ($27) 3.2%
Live Animals ($25) 2.9%
Vehicles other than Railway Stock ($23) 2.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
As may have been expected, wood and articles of wood represented one of the major commodity groups originating in British Columbia and exiting via Manitoba (Figure 5.18). The complex “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc” ranked first overall.
Even after excluding its extensive oil and gas exports, Alberta accounted for about $917 Million in exports via Manitoba in 2004 (Figure 5.19). Over one‐quarter of those exports were of the “electric machinery, parts thereof” classification, with “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc” and “meat and edible meat offal” as the only other double‐digit commodity groups (rounded).
Saskatchewan‐originating commodities accounted for over $1 Billion in exports via Manitoba. Despite its volume, Saskatchewan’s export pattern appeared less diverse than that observed with other provinces, with one‐third of that value coming from fertilisers (Figure 5.20). Given that Saskatchewan fertilizers contributed over 1/3 of non‐ Manitoba exports (by weight) (Figure 5.18) leaving via Manitoba, this focus is expected.
Ontario’s $859 Million in exports via Manitoba were dominated by paper, paperboard, pulp and pulp products (32%), wood and articles of wood (17%), “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc” (16%), and “aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof” (14%) (Figure 5.21).
94 Trade Flow‐Through Overview
• Mineral fuels (essentially pipeline sector commodities) comprise the largest single group in value, with $6.2 Billion leaving Canada via Manitoba. However, Manitoba contributes only a small percentage (15%) of that value.
• Cereals ranked second overall in 2004, with about $1.2 Billion departing Canada via Manitoba, with only 10% coming from other provinces prior to leaving Canada.
• “Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances; Parts Thereof” is the third largest export via Manitoba (on a value basis), and a fairly significant percentage (62%) is still classified as Manitoba sourced.
• The fourth‐ranked commodity, “Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal,” also includes a significant Manitoba component (56%).
• Almost all “copper and articles thereof”, “electrical energy” and “nickel and articles thereof” that leave Manitoba do so as a result of Manitoba production or processing.
• $822 Million of “Vehicles Other Than Railway or Tramway Rolling‐Stock, and Parts and Accessories Thereof” left via Manitoba in 2004, with only 8% from other provinces.
• Excluding the “powerline and pipeline” sectors, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario‐originating commodities collectively account for about 90% of the value of commodities exiting via Manitoba but originating outside Manitoba.
• Each of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario accounted for roughly one‐third of the value of these exports, with Saskatchewan having a slight lead, at 34%.
• $3.2 Billion of other provinces’ exports comprised “nuclear reactors, boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances; Parts Thereof” (14%), followed by fertilisers (12%), “paper and paperboard; Articles of Pulp etc” (12%), “Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal” (12%).
• Even after excluding its extensive oil and gas exports, Alberta accounted for about $917 Million in exports via Manitoba in 2004. Over one‐quarter of those exports were of the “electric machinery, parts thereof” classification, with “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc” and “meat and edible meat offal” as the only other double‐digit commodity groups (rounded).
95 • Saskatchewan‐originating commodities accounted for over $1 Billion in exports via Manitoba. Saskatchewan’s export pattern appeared less diverse than that observed with other provinces, with one‐third of that value coming from fertilisers.
• Ontario’s $859 Million in exports via Manitoba were dominated by paper, paperboard, pulp and pulp products (32%), wood and articles of wood (17%), “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc” (16%), and “aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof” (14%).
96 Manitoba Gateways The previous section defined the types of commodities and their respective dollar values and weights that have exited through Manitoba, but not necessarily originating within the province. In order to further increase employment in Manitoba as a transportation hub, the province is engaged in the Manitoba’s International Gateway Strategy (MIGS).
The goal of MIGS is “To promote economic growth by facilitating efficient trade with U.S. and Mexico through improved transportation, distribution, and border processing systems.”11
For truck transportation Emerson is the dominant port of entry and exit for goods flowing along the Mid‐Continent Trade Corridor. An equally important MIGS initiative is to enhance international trade at Manitoba’s Port of Churchill. With renewed interest in establishing a marine “arctic bridge” between Churchill and Russia, these efforts speak in discussing the important need in developing the port and its surrounding infrastructure.
These two MIGS initiatives provide the framework of this section. It should be noted that for consistency with the previous section on flow‐through commodities, all items transported by non‐modal means, that is power‐ and/or pipelines, have been excluded from the total values and weight presented in this section.
Emerson, MB Gateway The geographical position of Manitoba at the heart of North America makes it a prime channel for international trade with the United States. Manitoba’s Emerson border‐ crossing is a key gateway for the province and is one of the busiest international trade corridors in Canada. With large interest in emphasizing this gateway as a pertinent trade funnel for all of Canada to utilize for southbound trade, it is important to analyze the amount exports leaving through this port.
Manitoba‐originated Trade‐Flow Figure 5.22 charts the value of Manitoba produced good exports through the Emerson border from 2000 to 2004.
11 http://www.gov.mb.ca/tgs/tpsd/migs.pps, Slide 22: MIGS – International Mid‐Continent Trade & Transportation Corridor
97 Figure 5.22: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Emerson by Value, 2000 to 2004
$4.6
$4.5
$4.4
$4.3 Dollars
of
$4.2 Billions $4.1
$4.0
$3.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
As shown in Figure 5.22, the value of Manitoba‐originated commodities exported through Emerson has shown a healthy increase over the five years presented. The value of goods exported through the Emerson crossing in 2000 amounted to $4.1 billion dollars. The Emerson border has shown an overall upward trend since then. In 2004 there was a 4.5% increase from 2003, reaching $4.5 billion. Comparing this amount to the beginning of the review period represents a notable improvement of approximately 9% from 2000 underscoring the importance of this gateway.12
From a weight perspective, since 2000 the Emerson gateway has shown similar overall increases as well, with the largest amounts occurring in the last two years of the review period. In 2003 and 2004 approximately 2.6 and 2.7 million tonnes of goods, were shipped through Emerson compared to 2.4 million tonnes in 2000 an increase of approximately 10% over the five years. Figure 5.23 outlines the amount of weight exported through the Emerson border from 2000.13
12 An amount of $900 million was excluded from the total value in 2000, representing a one‐time export of gold coins destined for the United States. Omission of this total was necessary as to avoid skewing the underlying trend of Manitoba exports through the Emerson crossing. Table 2.26 of the data tables outlines the real values. 13 A total of 3,100 tonnes was omitted from the total weight in 2000, representing a one‐time export of gold coins destined for the United States. Omission of this total was necessary as to avoid skewing the underlying trend of Manitoba exports through the Emerson crossing. Table 2.27 of the data tables outlines the real values.
98 Figure 5.23: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Emerson by Weight, 2000 to 2004
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5 Tonnes
of
2.4
Millions 2.3
2.2
2.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Trade‐flow from Other Provinces Figure 5.24 presents shipments originated in other provinces that flowed through Emerson.
Figure 5.24: Non‐Manitoba Sourced Exports through Emerson by Value, 2000 to 2004
$1.6
$1.4
$1.2
$1.0 Dollars
of $0.8
$0.6 Billions $0.4
$0.2
$0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Other Provinces
After excluding Manitoba, Ontario is the top province exporting commodities through the Emerson border‐crossing over the five years shown. From 2000 to 2004, Ontario‐
99 originated shipments had averaged $1.4 billion. Alberta, with a five‐year average of approximately $1 billion and Saskatchewan at over $950 million, was the second‐ and third‐most important provinces.
Figure 5.25 presents the five‐year average share of non‐Manitoba originated exports, by value that has passed through the Emerson border. Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan‐ sourced commodities accounted for almost 90% of the total value of commodities exported through the Emerson border.
Figure 5.25: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Emerson by Value ($3.8 Billion)
Other Provinces Ontario 1% 36%
Alberta 27%
Saskatchewan British 25% Columbia 11%
Ontario at 36% is the top province exporting an average total of approximately $1.4 billion worth of commodities through the Emerson crossing. Of the Western provinces, Alberta at 27% and Saskatchewan at 25% both exported approximately $1 billion through the border crossing, while British Columbia at 11%, exported an average of $410 million. The remaining Atlantic Provinces and the Territories collectively exported a mean of $53 million through Manitoba’s busiest border or roughly 1% of the exports passing through Emerson.
The non‐Manitoba based flow through the Emerson border crossing on average was $3.8 billion from 2000 to 2004. Adding in Manitoba‐originated exports, averaging 4.5 billion, the total flow was 8.3 billion worth of commodities.
Figure 5.26 illustrates the shows non Manitoba flows over the 2000 to 2004 time period on a weight basis.
100 Figure 5.26: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports through Emerson by Weight, 2000 to 2004
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500 Tonnes
of 2,000
1,500
Thousands 1,000
500
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Other Provinces
Comparing the provincial shares in Figure 5.26 to those in Figure 5.24, there is an obvious difference. While Ontario and Alberta were significant users of the Emerson crossing when a value basis is considered on a total tonnage basis Saskatchewan originated goods are the most important, averaging 3.1 million tonnes through the Emerson crossing over the 2000 to 2004 period. The province with the second highest average traffic by weight is Ontario, with a much lower five‐year average of 913,000 tonnes.
Figure 5.27 below provides the breakdown of provincial shares excluding Manitoba’s commodities that have exited through Emerson averaged over the five years.
101 Figure 5.27: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Emerson by Weight (5.2 million tonnes)
Ontario Other 17% Provinces 1%
Alberta 16%
British Columbia 6%
Saskatchewan 60%
Saskatchewan‐sourced goods at 60% or an average of 3.1 million tonnes are clearly the majority of exports that have passed through the border. Of these exports, fertilizers accounted for 72% of Saskatchewan’s total weight. Ontario‐originated commodities have the second largest share accounting for 17% of Emerson’s exported traffic in 2004 or 912,000 tonnes while Alberta ranked third, with exports averaging 850,000 tonnes through Emerson, MB or 16%.
On a total tonnage basis including Manitoba commodities, on average 7.8 million tonnes of goods move through Emerson annually.
Churchill, MB Gateway The Port of Churchill is the northernmost gateway along the Mid‐Continent corridor and can serve as an important gateway for world trade outside of North America. It is positioned to serve countries such as Northern Europe and the Mediterranean due to shorter shipping times and distances. Enhancing the importance of this gateway is the initiative known as the Arctic bridge, which will create a direct trade route to Russia.
102 Currently, the Churchill gateway primarily handles exports of cereals, edible vegetables and various types of oil seeds and grain14. Exports of these commodities through the Port of Churchill by value from 2000 to 2004 are represented in this section.
Manitoba‐originated Trade Flow The five year total values of exports leaving though the Port of Churchill is illustrated in Figure 5.28 below.
Figure 5.28: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Churchill by Value, 2000 to 2004
$45
$40
$35
$30
Dollars $25
of
$20
$15 Millions
$10
$5
$0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
An obvious degree of variability in exports is seen since 2000. After exporting almost $33 million in 2000, two consecutive years of downturns followed reaching a low of $9.6 million in 2002. In 2003, a total value of $39 million of Manitoba commodities had left through the Port of Churchill characterizing a 306% increase from the year before and recording the largest total of the five years. In 2004, Churchill had exported almost $22 million, a decrease of 45% from 2003. During the course of the five years reviewed, Churchill exported an average value of $25 million of Manitoba’s own commodities.
Interpreting from a weight perspective shows an almost mirror reflection of its value counterpart. Total tonnage in 2000 peaked at 204,000 tonnes and much like its value complement, is followed by a similar two‐year downturn thereafter. In 2003, total tonnage was 190,000, decreasing 45% in 2004 to roughly 104,000 tonnes.
Figure 5.29 below shows the annual export totals of Manitoba commodities through the Churchill gateway.
14 Based on commodities exported from Statistics Canada International Trade Division database, 2000‐2004.
103 Figure 5.29: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Churchill by Weight, 2000 to 2004
250
200
150 Tonnes
of
100 Thousands
50
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Trade‐flow from Other Provinces Considering that the majority of commodities tend to be agriculture–related, it is no surprise to see the provinces of Western Canada as the primary users of the Port of Churchill gateway. The values of these agricultural products are shown in Figure 5.30 from 2000 to 2004.
Figure 5.30: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports through Churchill by Province of Origin and Value, 2000 to 2004
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30 Dollars
of $25
$20
Millions $15
$10
$5
$0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan
104 As shown in Figure 5.30, of the Western Provinces, Saskatchewan with an average export value of $34 million through the Port of Churchill tends to send more through this port than any of the other Western Provinces, surpassing Manitoba itself while British Columbia is a minor exporter through this gateway.
From an overall standpoint, after exporting a total of $79 million and $70 million in 2000 and 2001 respectively, non‐Manitoba exports through Churchill in 2002 declined significantly to approximately $28 million. While this value grew to $58 million in 2003, in 2004, this fell 26% to $44 million. This downturn is partially explained by a decrease in the export value of wheat and linseed commodities.
Figure 5.31 presents the five‐year average share of exports for Western Canada excluding Manitoba, measured by value. At 60% of the total, Saskatchewan‐sourced goods (primarily Cereals) were the majority of exports sent through the Churchill gateway, averaging $34 million from 2000 to 2004. Alberta comprises 39% of the total, exporting an average of $22 million, while British Columbia at 1% is negligible.
Figure 5.31: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Churchill by Value ($65 million) British Columbia 1%
Alberta 39%
Saskatchewan 60%
On a total dollar basis, these three provinces represent a five‐year average of $65 million. When Manitoba commodities are included, approximately $82 million is exported annually through the Port of Churchill.
105 The Western Canada breakdown (excluding Manitoba) of total tonnage over the five year review period is shown in Figure 5.32.
Figure 5.32: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports Leaving via Churchill by Province of Origin and Weight, 2000 to 2004
300
250
200 Tonnes
of 150
100 Thousands
50
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Alberta British Columbia Saskatchewan
In 2004, total weight of non‐Manitoba commodities exported through the Port of Churchill was nearly 187,000 tonnes. This represented a considerable 25% decrease from 2003. Comparing this value to 2000 exacerbates the decrease, resulting in a 56% drop or approximately 238,000 tonnes. This reduction is mainly due to a decrease in wheat/meslin and specific edible vegetables from Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The breakdown of provincial exports through Churchill averaged over the five years is shown in Figure 5.33. Saskatchewan, again, is the top province, exporting a total weight of 156,000 tonnes or 59% of the total weight through the Churchill gateway. Alberta‐ originated goods were roughly 40% of total Churchill exports (an average of 109,000 tonnes) of the total weight while British Columbia, with exports of 1% or just less than 2,000 tonnes is relatively minor.
106 Figure 5.33: Average Provincial Share of Exports Leaving via Churchill by Weight (263,000 tonnes) British Columbia 1%
Alberta 40%
Saskatchewan 59%
From 2000 to 2004, the non‐Manitoba based export flow averaged 263,000 tonnes. After including Manitoba‐originated commodities, Churchill exports on average roughly 400,000 tonnes for cereals and grains annually.
107 6.0 Federal Revenues and Expenditures
This section is a summary of a larger document that assesses transportation spending by the federal government. Both this section and the broader document focus on the amount of gross expenditures and derived revenues from the transport sector over the time period 1987/88 to 2003/04 with projections into 2008/09. All amounts pertaining to revenues and expenditures have been adjusted for inflation and are reported in 2003/04 dollars.
Federal Surplus of $2.8 billion in 2003/04
The discrepancy between federal spending on transportation and the revenues earned from the sector is increasing. Figure 6.1 presents a summarization of net surpluses and deficits over the recorded time series.
Figure 6.1: Federal Transportation Surplus/Deficit, 1987/88 to 2008/09 $Billions
$5 5‐year Forecast
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
($1)
($2) 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05f 05/06f 06/07f 07/08f 08/09f
Transportation surpluses began in 1992/93 and have increased dramatically. In 2003/04, the surplus amounted to $2.8 billion dollars. If forecasts are correct, a projected surplus of approximately $4.1 billion will occur in 2008/09, a 47% increase from 2003/04.
108 Continued declining trend in Federal Transportation Spending
Figure 6.2 shows the relative spending on transportation by Transport Canada and other Federal departments.
Figure 6.2: Transport Canada and Other Federal Spending on Transportation, 1991/92 to 2008/09 1991/92 = 100%
120%
100%
5‐year Forecast 80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05f 05/06f 06/07f 07/08f 08/09f
Transport Canada Other Federal Departments
Indexing to 1991/92, Transport Canada spending has declined to 35% of the base year. If current trends continue, Transport Canada spending will decrease to approximately $2 billion in 2008/09, 83% less than 1991/92 levels.
Sustained increases in Federal Revenues
Figure 6.3 illustrates the generally stable but positive rise in total federal revenues since 1991/92. In 2003/04, total revenues to just over $5.5 billion, a decrease of 3% the year before, but a growth of 9% since 1991/92. Fuel tax revenues increased 2.5% from the year before, totaling to $4.7 billion in 2003/04. Forecasts for fuel taxes are expected to rise to $5.2 billion at then end of the five‐year projection timeline.
109 Figure 6.3: Total Federal Revenues, Fuel Tax Revenues, and Non‐Fuel Tax Revenues, 1991/92 to 2008/09 1991/92 = 100%
160% 5‐year Forecast
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05f 05/06f 06/07f 07/08f 08/09f Fuel Tax Revenue Non‐Fuel Tax Revenue Total Revenue
A complete analysis of federal transportation revenues and expenditures can be found in the University of Manitoba Transport Insitute Report published in March 2006 titled Federal Transportation Spending and Revenues15.
15 The UMTI report, Federal Transportation Spending and Revenues, is a periodic report documenting fiscal changes to Canada’s Federal transportation system. The report examines the time period 1987‐2003, and provides a five year forecast.
110 7.0 Climate and the Environment Climate change is one of the most significant global threats facing Manitoba and the world. Proof is mounting that an overall warming of the earth’s atmosphere is caused by human‐generated emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that over this century, climate change will increase the global mean temperature between 1.4 and 5.8°C.
Figure 7.1: Total GHG Emissions in Canada and Manitoba, 2003
Canada Manitoba
Transportation 45%
Industrial 30% Transportation
Industrial 48%
14%
Agriculture Agriculture 3% 12% Commercial Commercial Residential 15% Residential 10% 12% 11%
Source: Energy Efficiency Trends Analysis Tables (Canada),” Natural Resources Canada, OEE Web site. GHG Emission Totals exclude electricity
Figure 7.1 shows the total GHG emissions within Canada and Manitoba for 2003. Total GHG emissions were 382 megatonnes in Canada, with transportation comprising 45 % of that amount (169 Megatonnes). In comparison to Canada, Manitoba’s total share of GHG emissions is 80 megatonnes, with 93 % of those emissions coming from transportation.
111 Figure 7.2 shows the difference between GHG emissions in Canada and Manitoba by mode.
Figure 7.2: Total GHG Emissions in Canada and Manitoba by Mode, 2003
Canada Manitoba
Road 79%
Road
Air 82% 9% Air 10%
Rail Rail 3% 4% Marine 5% Marine 0% Off‐Road Off‐Road
4% 4%
Source: Energy Efficiency Trends Analysis Tables (Canada),” Natural Resources Canada, OEE Web site.
Of the total 169 Megatonnes emitted by transportation in Canada, Manitoba’s share is 5.2 Megatonnes. Within Manitoba, road transportation contributes more emissions to the total than any other mode. Road transportation is comprised of passenger vehicles, trucks and buses. In 2003, Manitoba’s road sector contributed 82 % of emissions, with air as the next most important source at 10 %. Rail and off‐road contributed close to 4 % each.
Emission percentages for the road and air industries in Manitoba were greater than percentages at the national level. In Canada as a whole, road transportation accounted for 79 % of GHG emissions, while air contributed 9 %.
Currently, the mean Manitoba winter temperature ranges from ‐12.5 to ‐8 degrees Celsius, while mean summer temperature ranges from 14 to 16 degrees Celsius. Mean annual precipitation has a greater degree of variability, ranging from 300mm in the west of the province to almost 700mm in the east.
Due to the effects of climate change, Manitoba will likely experience warmer and wetter winters and springs, and longer, warmer, drier summers. Increased, average summer
112 temperatures will affect the structural integrity of pavement and railway tracks, accelerating pavement deterioration and railway track buckling. Also, roads could encounter more problems related to pavement softening with heavy truck traffic related rutting. Asphalt rutting becomes a greater problem on roads with heavy truck traffic during extended periods of summer heat.
Slight increases in temperatures can lead to negative impacts on transportation as witnessed in recent years with the delays in access to winter roads. The 2,000 kilometer winter road network serves 28 remote communities through Manitoba. These locations are otherwise only accessible by water or air. On average, winter roads are open about two months of the year. Climate change, however, has had an impact on the opening of these roads, on the build schedule, and the length of time they remain open.
Figure 7.3 illustrates the fluctuation in winter road operations over a fifteen year period.
Figure 7.3: Winter Roads East Side of Lake Winnipeg
70 61 60 59 59 60 56 55 54 53 51 52 51 48 49 50 43 40 40 35
30 25 22 21 20 20
10
0
7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 e 4 e 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 l 0 l / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / g / g 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 n 3 n 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 a 0 a i i r r T T 3 4 0 0 / / 2 3 0 0
Source: Adapted from the Northern Transportion Conference (Yellowknife), Don Kuryk Presentation “Climate Change and Effect: Seasonal Transportation to Remote Communities in Manitoba.” October 2005
In the 2003‐2004 season winter road access was 61 days. This was an increase 8 days compared to the 2002‐2003 season. One of the most significant remote areas serviced by winter roads is the region that encompasses the Island Lake community, and that connects the communities of Garden Hill, St Theresa and Wasagamack. In this area, the number of days winter roads were open was below normal. In 2003‐2004, the roads were open for only 40 days. However, this was an increase of five days over 2002‐2003. An example of the importance of winter roads is the effect of warm temperatures in the winter of 1997‐1998. That year, the Province had to spend approximately $14 million flying in supplies to communities that are normally served by winter roads. The
113 increase in the average winter temperature will mean a shortened winter road season and potentially increased transportation costs to move goods to these communities.
Hybrid Vehicles
Automakers are becoming more aware of the public’s desire to reduce GHG emissions. This can be seen in moves by many of the large automakers to create hybrid vehicles that use electric and gas power to power the vehicle. The number of these vehicles has grown in recent years. In Manitoba, there are 190 hybrid vehicles registered as of January 2006. Within the Province of Manitoba’s light duty fleet of vehicles, there are 141 alternative and flexible fuel vehicles. Of these 141 vehicles, 12 are gas electric hybrids and 129 are E85 flexible fuel vehicles. The E85 vehicles are capable of running on a blend of 85 % ethanol and 15 % gasoline. Upcoming additions to the government fleet include 8 more gas electric hybrids, 48 E85 flexible fuel vehicles and one Smart Car.
Figure 7.4: Province of Manitoba’s Alternative Vehicles in Light Duty Fleet
E85 Flexible Fuel Smart Car 89.4% 0.5%
Gas Electric 10.1%
114 List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Ratio of Per Capita Contribution to GDP: Western Canada Compared to Eastern ... 3 Figure 1.2: Transportation and Warehousing Contribution to GDP by Province/Territory: 20044 Figure 1.3: Contribution of Transportation and Warehousing Contribution to the Manitoba and National Economy: 2004 ...... 5 Figure 1.4: GDP of Sectors of the Manitoba Economy: 2004...... 6 Figure 1.5: Trend in Share of Manitoba GDP...... 7 Figure 1.6: Transportation and Warehousing Share of Total Provincial Employment: 2004...... 7 Figure 1.7: Trend in Transportation and Warehousing’s Share of Manitoba Total Employment ...... 8 Figure 1.8: Transportation and Warehousing Share of Total Provincial Labour Income: 2004... 9 Figure 1.9: Trend in Transportation and Warehousing’s Share of Manitoba Labour Income .. 10 Figure 2.1: Trend in Total GDP from Transportation in Manitoba...... 13 Figure 2.2: Trend in GDP by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba...... 14 Figure 2.3: Trend in Total Transportation Employment in Manitoba ...... 15 Figure 2.4: Trend in Total Employment from Trucking in Manitoba...... 16 Figure 2.5: Trend in Total Employment from Aviation, Couriers, Rail and Bus in Manitoba.. 16 Figure 2.6: Trend in Employment by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba17 Figure 2.7: Trend in Total Labour Income from Transportation in Manitoba ...... 18 Figure 2.8: Trend in Labour Income by Leverage Component from Transportation in Manitoba ...... 19 Figure 2.9: Contribution to Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode: 2004...... 20 Figure 2.10: Change in Contribution to Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode ...... 20 Figure 2.11: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba GDP by Transportation Mode ...... 21 Figure 2.12: Contribution to Manitoba Total Employment by Transportation Mode: 2004 ...... 22 Figure 2.13: Change in Employment by Transportation Mode...... 23 Figure 2.14: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba Employment by Transportation Mode...... 23 Figure 2.15: Contribution to Manitoba Labour Income by Transportation Mode: 2004...... 24 Figure 2.16: Change in Labour Income by Transportation Mode...... 24 Figure 2.17: Leverage Ratios for Manitoba Labour Income by Transportation Mode...... 25 Figure 3.1: Gross Domestic Product‐ GDP (Canada/Manitoba)...... 27 Figure 3.2: Rate of Change in GDP (Canada/Manitoba)...... 28 Figure 3.3: Labour Income (Canada/Manitoba)...... 29 Figure 3.4: Rate of Change in Labour Income (Canada/Manitoba) ...... 30 Figure 3.5: Consumer Price Index (Canada/Manitoba)...... 31 Figure 3.6: Rate of Change in CPI (Canada/Manitoba)...... 32 Figure 3.7: Personal Expenditures (Canada/Manitoba) ...... 33 Figure 3.8: Rate of Change in Personal Expenditures (Canada/Manitoba)...... 34 Figure 3.9: Housing Starts (Canada/Manitoba) ...... 35 Figure 3.10: Rate of Change in Housing Starts (Canada/Manitoba)...... 36 Figure 3.11: Quarterly Average Exchange Rates‐ U.S. Dollar...... 37 Figure 3.12: Quarterly Average Interest Rates (Bank of Canada rate) ...... 39 Figure 3.13: Quarterly Average Price Oil/Barrel ($US) ...... 40 Figure 3.14: Quarterly Average Unleaded Fuel Prices (Winnipeg Region)...... 41 Figure 3.15: Quarterly Average Diesel Fuel Prices (Winnipeg Region) ...... 42
115 Figure 4.1: Rate of Change; Canada to Traditional International Economies ‐ GDP in Constant 1990 U.S. Dollars...... 44 Figure 4.2: Rate of Change in GDP; Canada to Emerging International Economies ‐ GDP in Constant 1990 U.S. Dollars...... 45 Figure 4.3: 2004 Canadian Imports‐ Top 10 Countries by Value ...... 47 Figure 4.4: 2004 Canadian Imports‐ Top 10 Countries by Weight ...... 48 Figure 4.5: 2004 Canadian Exports‐ Top 10 Countries by Value ...... 49 Figure 4.6: 2004 Canadian Exports‐ Top 10 Countries by Weight...... 50 Figure 4.7: 2004 Canadian Imports by Mode ...... 51 Figure 4.8: 2004 Canadian Exports by Mode...... 52 Figure 4.9: Rate of Change in Canadian Import Traffic by Value...... 53 Figure 4.10: Rate of Change in Canadian Import Traffic by Weight...... 54 Figure 4.11: Rate of Change in Canadian Export Traffic by Value...... 55 Figure 4.12: Rate of Change in Canadian Export Traffic by Weight ...... 56 Figure 5.1: Manitoba and Other Provinces Share of Goods Exported, by Value and Weight, 2004...... 60 Figure 5.2: Manitoba and Other Provinces Share of Goods Imported, by Value and Weight, 2004...... 61 Figure 5.3: Sector Contribution by Value of Exports from Manitoba and Canada, 2004 ...... 62 Figure 5.4: Sector Contribution by Weight of Exports from Manitoba and Canada, 2004 ...... 63 Figure 5.5: US Share of Total Goods Traded with Manitoba by Value, 2000 to 2004 ...... 64 Figure 5.6: Value of Goods Traded between Manitoba and the United States, 2000 to 2004 ..... 65 Figure 5.7: Weight of Goods Traded between Manitoba and the United States, 2000 to 2004... 66 Figure 5.8: Modal Share of Manitoba Exports by Value and Weight, 2004...... 67 Figure 5.9: Modal Share of Manitoba Imports by Value and Weight, 2004...... 68 Figure 5.10: Value of Goods Traded between Manitoba and Other Countries, 2000 to 2004 .... 69 Figure 5.11: Value of Manitoba Trade by Region, 2004...... 70 Figure 5.12: Weight of Goods Traded between Manitoba and Other Countries, 2000 to 2004.. 71 Figure 5.13: Weight of Manitoba Trade by Region, 2004...... 72 Figure 5.14: Modal Share of Manitoba Exports by Value and Weight, 2004...... 73 Figure 5.15: Modal Share of Manitoba Imports by Value and Weight, 2004...... 73 Figure 5.16: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Departing Through Manitoba but Non‐MB Sourced, 2004 ...... 90 Figure 5.17: Percentage in Value and Weight of Major Exports Leaving Via Manitoba But Originating in Other Provinces, 2004...... 91 Figure 5.18: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in BC and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ...... 92 Figure 5.19: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Alberta and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ...... 93 Figure 5.20: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Saskatchewan and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ...... 93 Figure 5.21: Percentage in Value of Major Exports Originating in Ontario and Departing Through Manitoba, 2004 ...... 94 Figure 5.22: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Emerson by Value, 2000 to 2004 ...... 98 Figure 5.23: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Emerson by Weight, 2000 to 2004...... 99 Figure 5.24: Non‐Manitoba Sourced Exports through Emerson by Value, 2000 to 2004...... 99 Figure 5.25: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Emerson by Value ...... 100 Figure 5.26: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports through Emerson by Weight, 2000 to 2004 .... 101
116 Figure 5.27: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Emerson by Weight...... 102 Figure 5.28: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Churchill by Value, 2000 to 2004...... 103 Figure 5.29: Manitoba‐sourced Exports through Churchill by Weight, 2000 to 2004 ...... 104 Figure 5.30: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports through Churchill by Province of Origin and Value, 2000 to 2004...... 104 Figure 5.31: Average Provincial Share of Exports via Churchill by Value...... 105 Figure 5.32: Non‐Manitoba Originated Exports Leaving via Churchill by Province of Origin and Weight, 2000 to 2004 ...... 106 Figure 5.33: Average Provincial Share of Exports Leaving via Churchill by Weight...... 107 Figure 6.1: Federal Transportation Surplus/Deficit, 1987/88 to 2008/09...... 108 Figure 6.2: Transport Canada and Other Federal Spending on Transportation, 1991/92 to 2008/09...... 109 Figure 6.3: Total Federal Revenues, Fuel Tax Revenues, and Non‐Fuel Tax Revenues, 1991/92 to 2008/09...... 110 Figure 7.1: Total GHG Emissions in Canada and Manitoba, 2003...... 111 Figure 7.2: Total GHG Emissions in Canada and Manitoba by Mode, 2003 ...... 112 Figure 7.3: Winter Roads East Side of Lake Winnipeg ...... 113 Figure 7.4: Province of Manitoba’s Alternative Vehicles in Light Duty Fleet ...... 114
117 List of Tables
Table 5.1: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports (excluding oil/gas and hydroelectricity commodities)... 76 Table 5.2: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports to the USA ...... 78 Table 5.3: Manitoba’s Top 20 Exports to Mexico ...... 79 Table 5.4: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports ...... 81 Table 5.5: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports from U.S...... 83 Table 5.6: Manitoba’s Top 20 Imports from Mexico ...... 84 Table 5.7: Top 20 Exports Departing via Manitoba, 2004 ...... 89
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