Getting a Peace Process Back on Track After a Crisis
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Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis Published by Democratic Progress Institute 11 Guilford Street London WC1N 1DH United Kingdom www.democraticprogress.org [email protected] +44 (0)203 206 9939 First published, 2016 DPI – Democratic Progress Institute is a charity registered in England and Wales. Registered Charity No. 1037236. Registered Company No. 2922108. This publication is copyright, but may be reproduced by any method without fee or prior permission for teaching purposes, but not for resale. For copying in any other circumstances, prior written permission must be obtained from the publisher, and a fee may be payable.be obtained from the publisher, and a fee may be payable 2 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis Contents Executive summary ....................................................................5 Parked process ..........................................................................11 Southern Thailand ....................................................................11 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................13 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................15 Indonesia’s Aceh province .........................................................17 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................18 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................19 Conclusion ...............................................................................22 A breaking of ceasefire ..............................................................23 Northern Ireland, the 1996 Docklands bombing ......................25 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................14 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................27 Conclusion ...............................................................................31 Renewed violence .....................................................................35 Southern Philippines ................................................................35 2013 Zamboanga crisis in Philippines ......................................36 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................36 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................38 2015 Mamasapano incident in Philippines ...............................39 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................41 3 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................42 Conclusion ...............................................................................44 Spoiler activity ..........................................................................45 Inside spoiler ............................................................................45 Outside spoilers ........................................................................46 Northern Ireland ......................................................................47 Challenges faced during the peace process ................................47 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................47 Conclusion ...............................................................................49 Elections and polarisation .........................................................51 Challenges faced .......................................................................52 Elements of resolution of the crisis ...........................................53 4 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis Executive summary All conflicts, and therefore all peace processes, are different; each conflict presents a unique pattern, specific reasons for its inception and specific actors. However, substantial national and international experience in handling negotiations has shown that there are common factors and principles that can be considered in all cases. Of all armed conflicts that have come to a peaceful resolution since the mid-1980s, 75 per cent have done so via a negotiated settlement.1 These settlements are not straight-forward, and it is precipitous to assume that a peace process does not encounter obstacles. This paper focuses on assessing common types of crises encountered during a peace process, the challenges actors have faced and how they overcame them. By looking at some major conflicts that have been settled through dialogue and mediation, we are able to determine the most favourable conditions for getting a process back on track after a crisis, with regard to issues that had precipitated the crisis. The key to a successful peace process, despite any crisis that could occur, is to keep moving forward. We can compare the peace process to keeping a bicycle upright: “you have to keep the process moving forward, however slowly. Never let it fall over”.2 1 Vicenç Fisas, “The design and architecture of peace processes: lessons learned in the wake of crisis”, Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Center, April 2015 2 K. Yildiz, S. Breau, The Kurdish Conflict : International Humanitarian Law and Post- Conflict, 2010 5 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis A crisis occurring in a peace process may be defined as any event happening inside or outside the frame of the process which destabilises, endangers, stalls, or even stops it. While there are many different types of crises that may throw a process off track, some of the main examples of crises which have been overcome are examined below. This paper focuses on five types of crisis and uses major conflicts and peace processes as examples to outline the issues that can spark a crisis and the conditions to keep or get the peace process back on track. The crises analysed below highlight some of the most commonly faced obstacles that are encountered during a peace process. 6 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis • Parked process A process gets parked at a point at which negotiations become stalled, with action and progress seemingly impossible on both sides. Reaching a stalemate is common in a peace process; however there are ways to overcome it. Conflicts become “ripe for resolution” in cases of a mutually harmful stalemate.3 When an attractive alternative is capable of creating a situation that is believed to be superior to remaining locked in stalemate, a mutually acceptable solution becomes viable.4 Attention is paid within this paper to the examples of insurgencies in Southern Thailand and Indonesia’s Aceh province, which were settled through negotiations after having reached a stalemate. In both cases, a neutral third party helped re-open dialogue by drafting a foundational document that allowed for dialogue to resume. Both cases also display a willingness to return to dialogue in which the parties recognised that they had reached a mutually harmful stalemate. 3 William Zartman, « The timing of peace initiatives : Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments », The Global Review of Ethnopolitics, September 2001 4 Colin P. Clarke, Christopher Paul, From Stalemate to Settlement: Lessons for Af- ghanistan from historical insurgencies that have been resolved through negotiations, RAND Corporation, 2014 7 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis • A breaking of ceasefire A ceasefire demands a real and sincere commitment from both sides, which do not see the cessation of violence as an opportunity to re-arm. The breaking of a ceasefire often sparks violence and distrust among parties, making the peace process difficult to continue. However alternatives to a bilateral ceasefire do exist, such as a tacit ceasefire, which allows for violence to de-escalate and for dialogue to resume. The Northern Ireland peace process faced and overcame a breaking of a ceasefire. Following disagreements with the British government, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) broke its seventeen-month ceasefire by perpetrating a bombing in London in 1996. This paper analyses key elements that allowed the process to resume, including the willingness to rebuild trust, the presence of a neutral third party, the involvement of new political actors and the set-up of a deadline for the parties to reach an agreement. • Renewed violence During a ceasefire, a renewal of violence may occur, signifying that tensions are still alive among the population. This may endanger the peace process by destroying trust and bringing suspicion and resentment between parties. The key to neutralising the negative effects of renewed violence is for the parties to trust each other’s commitment to achieving a peaceful settlement. Frequent communication and demonstration of involvement and citizens’ support are both examples of actions that could help bring the parties back to dialogue. 8 Getting a peace process back on track after a crisis In the Southern Philippines, peace agreements were reached between the Philippines government and the two main insurgent groups, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Following misunderstandings, violence resurfaced during what is referred to as the Zamboanga crisis and the Mamasapano incident. In both cases, the parties re- affirmed their commitment to seek peaceful means of resolution and their willingness to settle tensions. • Spoiler activity Spoiler activity can be defined as violent and non-violent activities perpetrated by people who do not consider peace as beneficial to them and are willing