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1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Draft Boundaries Background

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1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Draft Boundaries Background NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Draft Boundaries by Antony Green Background Paper No 2/98 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Dr David Clune (9230 2484), Manager Dr Gareth Griffith (9230 2356) Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law MS Honor Figgis (9230 2768) Research Officer, Law MS Rachel Simpson (9230 3085) Research Offtcer, Law Mr Stewart Smith (9230 2798) Research Offtcer, Environment MS Marie Swain (9230 2003) Research Offtcer, Law/Social Issues Mr John Wilkinson (9230 2006) Research Officer, Economics ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN 0 7313 1612 6 01998 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, NSW Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the NSW Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http:/%vww.parliament, nsw.gov.adgr;/library~y/publicn. html March 1998 Background Paper is published by the NSW Parliamentary Library 1997/98 NEW SOUTH WALES REDISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF DRAFT BOUNDARIES CONTENTS PAGE Introduction 1 New electoral pendulum 5 Summary of New and Old Electorates 6 Summary of new electorates 9 Full listing of new electorates 26 Transfers of enrolments 68 Votes counted at 1993 Election as a proportion of enrolment in March 1994 72 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has prepared a number of publications for the Parliamentary Library on different aspects on New South Wales electoral politics. Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party DEM Australian Democrats GRN The Greens NAN No Aircraft Noise IND Independents OTH Other parties and independents Comments and Feedback This publication has been prepared with reference to the index maps made available by the Electoral Districts Commission. At times, the scale of these maps makes it difficult to be sure where the boundaries lie. I would be pleased to receive any comments from members who feel I have made a mistake in transferring polling places. Messages can be e-mailed to me direct through [email protected], or I can be contacted via David Clune in the Parliamentary Library. 1998 Draft Redistribution INTRODUCTION This booklet contains estimates of the political impact of the draft New South Wales electoral boundaries, released on 27 March 1998. They are based on re-assigning the polling place level results of the 1995 election to the new electorates. The following notes provide detail of how this allocation process has taken place, and also how to read the tables provided. Calculating the Redistribution Following the 1995 election, a database was prepared of the election results in each polling place. This database included both the primary and two-candidate results. Two candidate preferred results were estimated based on the published flows of preferences for each electorate. These estimates can be found in my publication n 1995 NSW Legislative Assembly Election: Estimated Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place”, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper 1995/5. Decisions on transferring booths to new electorates were made by examining the index maps provided by the Electoral Districts Commission. Where a polling place was close to a new boundary, consideration was given to splitting the booth between electorates. A check was made to ensure that the number of votes transferred correlated with the number of electors transferred, as published in the Commissioners’ Proposals. Declaration votes were distributed to new electorates in proportion to the number of electors transferred. For instance, 15.5% of Ermington voters were transferred to Baulkham Hills, 4.8% to Epping, 54.9% to Parramatta and 24.9% to Ryde. Declaration votes have been distributed to the new electorates in the same proportion. However, of the votes transferred, the relative proportion of votes for each party have been weighted according to the vote in the booths transferred as follows. As a first step, the ratio of declaration votes to booth votes was calculated, as in the following example. Ermington Booth Results Declaration Votes Ratio Labor 36.49% 33.52% 0.9186 Liberal 50.91% 51.18% 1.0053 Democrat 5.96% 7.80% 1.3087 Other 6.95% 7.49% 1.0777 These ratios were then applied to the votes transferred to new electorates. For instance several booths were transferred from Ermington to Baulkham Hills. The number of voters transferred was 15.5% of the enrolment of Ermington, and so 15.5% of the Declaration votes have been transferred. The above ratios have been applied to the percentage party votes for the booths transferred, as shown below. Ermington Transfers to Baulkham Hills Booth % Vote Declaration % Adjusted % Labor 26.15% 24.02% 23.95% Liberal 61.92% 62.25% 62.08% Democrat 4.98% 6.52% 6.50% Other 6.95% 7.49% 7.47% In this case, the Labor vote in booths transferred to Baulkham Hills was 26.15%. Applying the ratio of 0.9186, the Labor percentage of Declaration votes to be transferred is 24.02%. After rounding so the percentages add to lOO%, this becomes 1 1998 Draft Redistribution 23.95% of formal declaration votes. So of the 15.5% of declaration votes transferred to Baulkham Hills, 23.95% will be Labor Party votes, as compared to the 33.52% Labor vote in the overall Declaration vote for Ermington. This process may seem unduly complex, but it ensures that the declaration votes transferred reflects the political complexion of the areas involved. In the case of Ermington, the Declaration votes transferred to Epping and Baulkham Hills will have a higher proportion of Liberal votes than those transferred to Parramatta or Ryde. Overall, the sum of the declaration votes transferred to the four electorates will still add to the total declaration vote recorded for Ermington. Reading the Tables Detailed results are provided in several formats. The tables on pages 9-26 provide a summary for all new electorates in the following format. CHARLESTOWN (43747) 2-PARTY VOTE PRIMARY VOTE OLD ELECTORATES ALP 22739 64.0% ALP 21549 56.8% Charlestown 32770 93.5% LIB 12765 36.0% LIB 10242 27.0% Wallsend 5348 83.0%““” GRN 238 0.6% Newcastle 1974 88.0% OTH 5924 15.6% - - - - - - - - 40092 91.6% Informal 2139 5.3% Formal 37953 The first line contains the name of the electorate, and the enrolment at December 1997. The first two columns contain total two-party preferred and primary votes and percentage, calculated by adding up the transferred booth and declaration votes. The third column provides information on the votes transferred from the old electorates. In the case of Charlestown, it lists the number of votes transferred from Charlestown, Wallsend and Newcastle. This is the total of the booth and declaration votes transferred, and includes both formal and informal votes, It is NOT the number of electors transferred. The percentage figure on the right is the number of votes transferred expressed as a percentage of the number of electors transferred. In general, I have aimed to keep this percentage figure around the same percentage as the relevant figure for each old electorate as a whole. (A table comparing 1995 votes with December 1997 enrolments can be found on pages 68-71 .I In general this percentage is kept in the range 85-95%. Where the value is outside of this range, “***” appears on the listing. A total of all votes transferred to the new Charlestown is provided, along with total informal and formal votes and relevant percentages. The tables on pages 26-67 provide further details on each new electorate. It includes a full listing of booths and declaration votes transferred to new electorate. Separate sub- totals are provided for each old electorate. Consider the following example from the listing for Charlestown 1998 Draft Redistribution 2-CANDIDATE PRIMARY VOTES CHARLESTOWN VOTES ALP LIB ALP LIB GRN OTH Transfers from : Charlestown (35065 Voters) Bet Air, Charlestown, Charlestown East, Charlestown South, Charlestown West, Dudley, Garden Grove, Gateshead, Gateshead West, Kahibah, Kotara, Kotara Heights, Kotara South, Medcalf Street, Mount Hutton (75%), Redhead, Warners Bay, Warners Bay East (75%), Whitebridge, Windale, Declaration votes (95%) Votes 32770 18444 10345 17410 7890 0 5880 % 64.1 35.9 55.8 25.3 0.0 18.9 The line beginning “Transfers . ,.” indicates from which electorate votes have been transferred. The figure in brackets (35065) is the number of electors transferred, as provided by the Electoral Districts Commission. In this example, the next four lines list the names of the polling places that have been transferred from the old electorate of Charlestown to the new. In the case of the Mount Hutton booth, only 75% has been transferred. The percentage of Declaration votes transferred is indicated in the same way. The column headed VOTES is the total votes transferred, and includes informal votes. It is NOT the sum of the formal votes on the line. Note that because of optional preferential voting, the total of the two-party preferred votes may not equal the total of the primary votes. A total of votes and percentage votes for each party is provided, representing the sum of the booth and declaration votes transferred.
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