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Unpacking Aviation Futures: an Ecological Perspective on Consumption, Sustainability and Air Transport

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Unpacking Aviation Futures: an Ecological Perspective on Consumption, Sustainability and Air Transport Unpacking aviation futures: An ecological perspective on consumption, sustainability and air transport Murray May A thesis submitted to the University of Western Sydney for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy March 2004 © 2004 Murray May All rights reserved. Acknowledgments I acknowledge and thank all those who have encouraged, inspired, and supported me in completing this research project. Professor Stuart Hill, my principal supervisor, provided engaging, supportive and encouraging supervision. He drew out and facilitated especially well my own learning and inquiry processes. Dr Frank Hutchinson, also of the University of Western Sydney (UWS), provided valuable inspiration and encouragement in the earlier stages of my inquiry. I thank Professor Valerie Brown for her support in my obtaining a scholarship through UWS. This financial assistance was invaluable and I thank the University and those in the Research Office who administered it. Special thanks go to my mentor Merrilyn Fahey, who provided invaluable encouragement, guidance and support throughout my work. Her intelligent comments and feedback on my writing gave me much needed ongoing stimulus and interaction, and her support in helping me to meet the personal challenges of doing the research was an important element in my completing the work. I also want to thank Wanda Carter for her ongoing sterling friendship and support, and particularly her generous assistance with typing significant parts of my earlier writing. The School of Social Ecology and Lifelong Learning at UWS provided useful additional financial support to attend pertinent conferences and to visit relevant people in the field. Thanks to Lesley Carbery for assistance with my applications. Those visited included Professors Richard Slaughter and Sohail Inayatullah, who provided valued inspiration and leadership in relation to critical futures studies. Drs Patrick Moriarty and Fei Wang likewise stimulated my thinking on sustainable transport futures. In addition, I would like to acknowledge helpful discussions with Dr Clive Hamilton from The Australia Institute, Drs Stephen Boyden and John Schooneveldt from the Nature and Society Forum, and Anthea Fawcett from the EcoDesign Foundation. Publications provided by, and communications with the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution in the UK, were also much appreciated. iii I would like to acknowledge the helpfulness and efficiency of the library staff at the University of Western Sydney at Hawkesbury, and in particular Jennifer Davies, Geoff Lattimore, Wendy Scruci, and Lynette Kelly. They provided valuable assistance with literature searching and facilitated my use of the library as an externally based student in Canberra. Thanks to the people who agreed to interviews for the case study of Canberra airport and for the useful insights obtained as a result. Lastly, I wish to thank my parents for their ongoing support for my endeavours. iv Statement of authentication The work presented in this thesis is, to the best of my knowledge and belief, original except as acknowledged in the text. I hereby declare that I have not submitted this material, either in full or in part, for a degree at this or any other institution. v Claims to originality This research is original in its cross-disciplinary approach to the study of the future of air transport, especially in the context of sustainable consumption. For example, the question of tourism futures is one of the related consumption issues addressed. It applies a critical futures research method, namely causal layered analysis, to the research topic, as well as presenting a broad scheme of policy measures for restructuring and redesigning aviation and air travel. In addition, it provides a critique of these measures within “consciousness” and “frameworks” approaches for the transition to sustainability. It therefore adds to the emerging literature critiquing air transport within a broad sustainability framework, in contrast with the predominant economic bias in academic studies of air transport. At the more specific local level, it also provides a case study of the privatisation and expansion of Canberra airport in the Australian Capital Territory. This particular sub-study identifies a range of issues specific to this particular case, but with broader relevance for aviation futures as well. The following publications have been produced in conjunction with the PhD research work: May, M. (2002). The growth of tourism and air travel in relation to ecological sustainability. International Journal of Tourism Research, 4, 147-150. May, M., & Hill, S. B. (2002). Unpacking aviation travel futures: An application of causal layered analysis. Journal of Futures Studies, 7(1), 41-65. May, M., & Hill, S. B. (in press). Unpacking aviation futures. In S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis reader: Integrating inquiry in science, social science, philosophy and mythology. Tamsui, Taipei: Tamkang University. vi Contents Acknowledgments iii Statement of authentication v Claims to originality vi List of figures and tables x List of acronyms and abbreviations xiii Abstract xvi 1 Framing the inquiry 1 Context for this research 1 Research aims and focus of this study 4 Justification for the research 5 Personal context 8 Research philosophy and methodologies 10 An outline and overview of the thesis chapters 15 2 Sustainable consumption—the wider context 19 The sustainable consumption debate 19 Sustainable consumption, sustainability and complexity 22 IPAT and consumption 36 Economics and globalisation 43 Ecological thinking and values, behaviour change and sustainable consumption 46 Politics, policy and futures 52 3 The growth of aviation and some major constraints 58 World aviation futures—an ecological context 59 Aviation and climate change 69 Aviation growth trends—past, present and future 72 The future mobility of the world population—another view 88 vii The globalisation of tourism—a political and economic 90 context for world aviation futures The decline of conventional oil and its significance for aviation 105 4 Aviation travel—futures and policy 112 Applying causal layered analysis to aviation futures 113 Conclusions from the CLA analysis 134 Policy approaches for aviation within a sustainability framework 136 5 A case study of Canberra International Airport 169 Global airport development and expansion—the ecological context 170 The research study and methodology 178 Themes and issues 183 1. How is the problem framed? Economic development vis-à-vis the community 183 2. Land use planning 185 3. Who are the stakeholders? 194 4. Government, the market and the community 198 5. Institutional frameworks and influences 202 Synthesis of meanings and conclusions 211 6 Synthesis and conclusions 227 Overview of research aims and central themes 227 Overview of research undertaken and summary of findings 234 Integration of findings 240 Strengths and limitations of this study and future avenues of research 247 Epilogue—visioning 25 years on 250 viii Appendix Case study of Canberra airport—questions for interview 255 References cited 257 ix List of figures and tables Figures 1.1 Questions relevant to the design of a research project, taking into account the theoretically embedded nature of research 11 1.2 The chapter structure for the thesis 15 2.1 Map of “faultlines” between contrasting perceptions of our relationships with nature 25 2.2 Comparison between declining and resurgent worldviews 32 2.3 Wilber’s (1996, p. 71) four quadrant model of the cosmos 33 2.4 The coevolution of environment and society 35 3.1 Key components of aviation’s socio-technical system 62 3.2 Average external costs for 1995 in Western Europe by transport mode and cost category linked to environmental and social externality: Passenger transport 65 3.3 Air traffic forecasts worldwide for the year 2010 using passenger-kilometres travelled 74 3.4 World air traffic demand scenario to 2050 (Revenue passenger kilometres RPKs) 84 3.5 Historical and estimated future total global mobility by mode of transport 88 3.6 Modal shares of Australian non-urban travel, measured on a passenger-kilometre basis 90 3.7 International tourist arrivals and tourism receipts, 1950-1999 94 3.8 Actual and projected international tourist arrivals worldwide 95 3.9 The tourist system: a time and space geographical perspective 99 3.10 Schema comparing ecological sustainability, economics and tourism 102 3.11 The tourism system: a transport perspective with volume of tourist travel 103 x 3.12 Oil supply profiles for the world 1996-2030 using business as usual projections 107 5.1 Relative importance of the four major areas of environmental concern, identified in a survey of the 50 busiest airports in the USA 173 5.2 Comparison of airline fleet mix for Canberra airport in 2002 and 2050 180 5.3 Jet departures from Runway 17 at Canberra International Airport for the period 15 June to 14 July 2002 187 5.4 Noise abatement areas for Canberra and Queanbeyan in the Australian Capital Territory region 188 5.5 Tralee and Canberra airport 189 5.6 Advertisement placed in The Canberra Times by The Village Building Co. 190 5.7 Advertisement placed in The Canberra Times by Canberra International Airport 191 5.8 Main stakeholders involved with the privatisation and expansion of Canberra airport 195 5.9 Government, market and civil society components of urban change 198 5.10 Pryor cartoon in The Canberra Times, 24 February, 2004, p. 12 216 5.11 Lewin’s (1935) force-field analysis applied to quality of life
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