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New South Wales Elections 1999 Background Paper No 4/99

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New South Wales Elections 1999 Background Paper No 4/99 NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE New South Wales Elections 1999 by Antony Green Background Paper No 4/99 RELATED PUBLICATIONS C 1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries by Antony Green, Background Paper 4/98 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1655 X August 1999 © 1999 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE Dr David Clune, Manager .......................... (02) 9230 2484 Dr Gareth Griffith, Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ...................... (02) 9230 2356 Ms Rachel Simpson, Research Officer, Law ............ (02) 9230 3085 Mr Stewart Smith, Research Officer, Environment ....... (02) 9230 2798 Ms Marie Swain, Research Officer, Law/Social Issues .... (02) 9230 2003 Mr John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Economics ....... (02) 9230 2006 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with ABC-Television, and has worked for the ABC on every state and federal election coverage since 1989. He also writes regularly on electoral matters for the Sydney Morning Herald. Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. Antony has prepared a number of publications for the Parliamentary Library on different aspects on New South Wales electoral politics. Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/gi/library/publicn.html CONTENTS Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results........................................... 5 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division............................ 10 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results .......................................... 33 Regional Summaries .......................................................................... 40 By-elections 1995 - 1999.................................................................... 44 Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result .............................................. 46 Detail of Legislative Council Primary Votes ........................................ 48 Summary of 1997-1998 Redistribution ...................................................... 57 Distribution of Legislative Assembly Preferences by Party.................... 60 The Impact of Optional Preferential Voting............................................... 68 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-Affiliated Candidates AFI Australians Against Further Immigration ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party CEC Citizens Electoral Council COM Communist Party DEM Australian Democrats DSL Democratic Socialist Electoral League ERP Euthanasia Referendum Party ES Earthsave IND Independents IP Re-elect Ivan Petch Peoples Envoy Ryde GOS Gun Owners and Sporting Hunters Party GRN The Greens LAW Natural Law Party LIB Liberal Party NAN No Aircraft Noise NAT National Party NBC No Badgerys Creek Airport NCP Non-Custodial Parents Party ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation ORP Outdoor Recreation Party OTH Others PF People First R2P Republic 2001 Party SEP Socialist Equality Party TCW Timbarra Clean Water Party UNI Unity VOP Voice of the People Party Important Dates Issue of Writs Monday 8 March 1999 Close of Rolls Monday 8 March 1999 Close of Nominations Thursday 11 March 1999 Lodgement of Group Voting Tickets Friday 12 March 1999 How to vote registration Thursday 18 March 1999 Polling Day Saturday 27 March 1999 NSW Election 1999 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the 1999 New South Wales election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts, as well as primary votes for the Legislative Council. A summary of the 1998 electoral redistribution is also included to assist in understanding the results, and there are several tables analysing the distribution of preferences in the Legislative Assembly, and the impact of optional preferential voting. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes are provided. Where appropriate, a two-party preferred count is also provided. (See note on two- candidate and two-party preferred vote below). The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election (adjusted for the new electoral boundaries) from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes that did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the previous election, adjusted for the redistribution. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differ from the previous election (e.g. Albury), a ghost candidate appears, and three swing figures are shown. A two- party preferred count is also provided in these electorates. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. This is carried out by successively excluding the candidate with the lowest primary vote, and distributing those votes as preferences to candidates remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two remaining candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred count'. In most electorates, this will also be the same as the 'two-party preferred' vote, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party, and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. However, there were 10 electorates at the 1999 New South Wales election that did not finish with a two-party preferred count. In Bligh, Cabramatta, Keira and Tamworth, the two-candidate preferred count was between Labor and Independent candidates, in Albury and Manly between Liberal and Independent candidates, and between National and Independent candidates in Dubbo and Northern Tablelands. Cessnock finished as a contest between Labor and One Nation, and Marrickville a contest between Labor and the Greens. In these electorates, the New South Wales Electoral Commissioner, Mr Ian Dickson, undertook an additional two-party preferred count for information purposes. These have been made available for the first time in this publication. At the 1995 election, two party preferred counts were not available for the electorates of Bligh, Manly, Marrickville, Port Jackson and Tamworth. In the first four of these electorates, an estimate of two- party preferred count has been made. In Tamworth, there was no Coalition candidate in 1995, so the two-candidate preferred vote of Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the two-party preferred count. 1 NSW Election 1999 Two-Party Preferred Estimates in Tamworth In 1995, Tamworth was not contested by a Coalition candidate, and the two-candidate preferred vote for Independent Tony Windsor has been used as the Coalition two-party preferred vote. However, a National Party candidate nominated in 1999, and very different two-party preferred swings are produced for Tamworth, depending on whether Tony Windor's two-candidate vote is used as the non- Labor two-party preferred vote, or the special distribution between the Labor and National Party candidates. Throughout this publication, the distribution between Labor and the National Party has been used. However, this inflates the swing to Labor between the two elections, so the following tables compare the impact on regional totals of using the two different counts. % Using Labor/Windsor Count % Using Labor/National Count Electorate/Region ALP Lib/Nat Swing ALP Lib/Nat Swing Tamworth 14.8 85.2 3.1 to Lib/Nat 45.2 54.8 27.4 to Labor Western Country 39.3 60.7 4.9 to Labor 42.6 57.4 8.2 to Labor Country 41.8 58.2 5.2 to Labor 43.1 56.9 6.5 to Labor Statewide 55.6 44.4 6.6 to Labor 56.0 44.0 7.0 to Labor Corrections to Two-Party Preferred estimates for 1995 Election In my publication "NSW Elections 1995" (NSW Parliamentary Library Research
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