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New South Wales Election 1999 ISSN 1328-7478 Department afthe Parliamentary Library !1lJi INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES ~)~~~~~~~~~(.Co!" Research Paper No. 22 1998-99 New South Wales Election 1999 ISSN 1328-7478 © Copyright Commonwealth ofAustralia 1999 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no pall of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent of the Depattment of the Parliamentary Library, other than by Senators and Members ofthe Australian Parliament in the course oftheir official duties. This paper has been prepared for general distribution to Senators and Members of the Australian Parliament. While great care is taken to ensure that the paper is accurate and balanced, the paper is written using information publicly available at the time of production. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Information and Research Services (IRS). Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. Readers are reminded that the paper is not an official parliamentary or Australian government document. IRS staff are available to discuss the paper's contents with Senators and Members and their staff but not with members ofthe public. Published by the Depattment ofthe Parliamentary Library, 1999 INFORMATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES Research Paper No. 22 1998-99 New South Wales Election 1999 Scott Bennett Politics and Public Administration Group Gerard Newman Statistics Group 8 June 1999 Acknowledgments The author would like to thank C. Madden, F. Frost, B. Bennett, A. Kopras, V. Wilson, J. Smith, K. Jackson, J. Hutchinson, R. Lundie and J. Pearson for their assistance in preparing this paper. Inquiries Further copies of this publication may be purchased from the: Publications Distribution Officer Telephone: (02) 6277 2720 Information and Research Services publications are available on the ParlInfo database. On the Internet the Department of the Parliamentary Library can be found at: http://www.aph.gov.aullibrary/ A list of IRS publications may be obtained from the: IRS Publications Office Telephone: (02) 6277 2760 Contents Symbols and Abbreviations Introduction 1 New South Wales goes to the polls 2 Background to the election: leadership 2 The campaign battle 3 Legislative Assembly 5 Legislative Council 10 Percentages for parties winning Legislative Council seats 12 The verdict 13 Endnotes 16 Table 1: Legislative Assembly, State Summary 18 Table2a: Legislative Assembly, District Summary 19 Table2b: Legislative Assembly, District Summary 21 Table 3: Legislative Assembly, District Summary 23 Table 4: Electoral Pendulum 25 Table 5 Legislative Assembly: District Summary 26 Table 6: Legislative Council, State Summary .42 Table 7: Legislative Council, Composition by Year of Election .44 Table 8: Legislative Assembly By-elections 1995-1999 .45 Table 9: Legislative Assembly Elections 1950-1999 .46 Symbols and Abbreviations AAFI Australians Against Further hnmigration AD Australian Democrats ALP Australian Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party CEC Citizens Electoral Councils CPA Communist Party DSL Democratic Socialists ERP Euthanasia Reform Party ES Earthsave GOSH Gun Owners and Sporting Hunters Rights GRN The Greens IND Independents IP Re-elect Ivan Petch LP Liberal Party NBC No Badgerys Creek Airport NCP Non Custodial Parents Party NLP Natural Law Party NP National Party ORP Outdoor Recreation Party PF People First PHON Pauline Hanson's One Nation PV Peoples Voice R2P Republic 2001 Party SEP Socialist Equity Party TCW Timbarra Clear Water Party UNI Unity * Sitting member for District # Party holding or notionally holding District New South Wales Election 1999 Introduction The 1999 New South Wales election saw the Labor Government of Bob Carr increase its small majority in the Legislative Assembly to one that should enable it to govern comfortably over the next four years. Although the Government does not control the upper house, the Legislative Council election has produced a house that will probably be more amenable to Labor legislation than its predecessor. On the Coalition side, the Liberal Party has been seriously weakened and it may take some time before new leader, Kerry Chikarovski, is in a position to challenge the Government electorally. Although the National Party vote declined, the party still holds the lion's share ofrural seats. This paper provides a brief outline of the election campaign, discusses the results, notes the seats of significance, and speculates about the position of the parties in the immediate future. 1 New South Wales Election 1999 New South Wales goes to the polls The 1999 New South Wales election was held on 27 March, the date at which the fixed four-year term of the parliament ended. The Legislative Assembly had been reduced from 99 to 93 seats, the second reduction since the election of 1988. Fifteen electorates had been abolished: Ashfield (ALP), Badgerys Creek (ALP), Broken Hill (ALP), Bulli (ALP), Eastwood (LP), Ermington (LP), Gladesville (ALP), Gordon (LP), Hurstville (ALP), Murray (NP), Moorebank (ALP), Northcott (LP), St Marys (ALP), Sutherland (LP), Waratah (ALP). Nine new electorates were created (notional sitting party given):! Epping (LP), Heathcote (ALP), Hornsby (LP), Macquarie Fields (ALP), Menai (LP), Mulgoa (ALP), Murray-Darling (NP), Ryde (LP), Wentworthville (ALP). The electorate ofMurwillurnbah had been renamed Tweed (NP). Also on 27 March voters elected 21 Members of the 42-member Legislative Council for a term of eight years. Background to the election: leadership In his seminal work on Australian voting behaviour, Don Aitkin asserted that, 'There can be no doubt that the electorate prizes unity in its parties', and went on to note that the electorate 'is alert to any signs ofparty or cabinet disunity,.2 Despite this, there have been a number of occasions when State parties have moved, on the eve of a State election, to remove a leader deemed to be leading the party to electoral defeat. The Liberals' removal of Tom Lewis (1976) and John Mason (1981) (both NSW) and Dick Hamer (1981) (Vic), and the Nationals' deposing of Mike Ahem (1989) (Qld) have been the most significant in the past two decades. Typically, poor opinion poll results are cited as justification of such moves against a leader. A variant was the removal of Labor's Doug Lowe (1981) (Tas), an event which helped precipitate a premature election. Aitkin's warning was relevant to all cases-the party that had made this late change lost the forthcoming election? In the cases mentioned, the date of the following election was uncertain, though close. In New South Wales in 1999, the parliament had a fixed term, so the parties knew the election date of 27 March. Despite this, as late as 11 December 1998, Liberal leader Peter Collins was forced from office by the supporters of Kerry Chikarovski. Just over a month later, on 14 January 1999, Ian Armstrong was replaced by George Souris as leader of the 2 New South Wales Election 1999 National Party. This was just over ten weeks from polling day, quite long enough, said Souris, to mount a successful campaign. The Government was certainly vulnerable. In 1995 it won office with just 41.3 per cent of the first preference vote to the Coalition's 43.9 per cent, the lowest winning total since 1927, and with less than half of the two-party preferred vote. It won 50 of the Legislative Assembly's 99 seats. Within a few months its popularity had fallen to below 40 per cent, following its breaking of a promise to remove motorway tolls in western Sydney. Soon after the March 1996 Commonwealth election its popularity had dropped further to barely 30 per cent in the wake of the change in location of the Governor's residence and of the controversial dismissal of the head of the Department of Community Services. Between mid-1996 and early 1997 the Coalition under Collins had a healthy lead in the polls, though the Premier's own popularity was higher than the Liberal leader's. Labor only really began to match the Coalition during 1998 and throughout the year there was little in the poll margins.4 The campaign battle It is a matter of fine judgment how earlyllate a party should issue its policies prior to polling day. Labor portrayed itself as 'getting on with the job' of government and not . prepared to be diverted from this until the formal launch of its policies on 14 March, a stance that was not seriously challenged. The Liberals, by contrast, came under media pressure to unveil their policies right from the election of Chikarovski and were criticised for many weeks for being 'policy-free', despite the Liberal promise to reveal policies at the formal opening of its campaign-on the same day as Labor. Despite this apparent embargo on policies, both sides did gradually make clear some of their policies in the weeks prior to the policy launches. There is a settled pattern to most State elections. Governments stand on their record, make a plea for being given another term 'to finish the job' and criticise their opponents for the extravagance of their claims. Oppositions have a tendency to produce a 'shopping list' of promises, as they seek to put together a set of policies broad enough to attract a majority of voters.5 This election was no different, with the unusual aspect being the Coalition's public recognition that its promises would cost more than those made by the Government. In fact, it was forecast that the Coalition promises would see a Coalition government outspend Labor by a margin offive to one, a margin not disputed by either of the Coalition partners. 6 As a consequence, there were relatively few promises made by the Government, though it spoke of more money for emergency services and for hospitals in western Sydney and in the country.
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