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Mashreq Bank mashreq Fixed Income Trading Daily Market Update Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Market Update • Dubai inflation rate for first nine months up 4.28% Dubai’s inflation rate for the nine months up to the end of September rose to 4.28%, a report from the Dubai Statistics Centre (DSE) revealed. This is a result of price increases in categories such as furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, which were up 8%, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels saw an average increase of 7.25%. Beverage and tobacco prices rose 6.68%, while prices of clothing and footwear as well as miscellaneous goods and services were up 6.41% and 2.85%, respectively. Education, restaurant and hotel and transport prices rose by 2.64%, 2.47% and 2.23%, respectively. Additionally, communication prices were up 1%, health prices rose 0.6% while food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were up 0.54%. However, recreation and culture prices, which account for 4.24% of the consumer basket, fell 0.19%. Meanwhile, the month-on-month inflation rate for September rose to 0.28%, pushed up by price increases in categories such as education (4.34%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.13%). (Gulfnews) • Al Noor reveals third suitor as VPS Healthcare Al Noor, an operator of private hospitals in Abu Dhabi which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, is attracting a number of potential suitors. Last week the group agreed a tie-up with Mediclinic, a fellow private hospitals company with a presence in South Africa, Switzerland and the UAE, to create a company with combined revenues of USD4 billion. However, rival suitors have since indicated that they are not going to let Al Noor slip away from them so easily. Al Noor said in a statement on Tuesday that it has also received a "highly preliminary indication of interest" from Abu Dhabi-based VPS Healthcare although it stressed that "no formal proposal or indicative terms were received". VPS is now required under UK takeover rules to announce a firm intention to make an offer for the company or walk away by November 17th. (FT) • Preferred bidders identified for USD 550 million Sohar, Barka water projects Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) , the sole procurer of all new electricity generation and co-located water desalination capacity in the Sultanate of Oman, has identified preferred bidders for two major water schemes planned at Sohar and Barka on Oman's Batinah coast. Separate consortiums led by Spanish water services giant Valoriza Agua SL and Japanese conglomerate Itochu Corporation have been selected by the wholly government-owned procurer for the development of Independent Water Projects (IWPs) at Sohar and Barka respectively. The move paves the way for final negotiations with the two bidding groups leading to the award of separate licenses for the development, design, construction, ownership, financing, operation and maintenance of the respective IPPs. Formal project agreements linked to either IPP are due to be inked shortly, according to OPWP officials. Madrid-based Valoriza Agua had teamed up with Oman Brunei Investment Company and Sogex Oman LLC in bidding for the two IPPs. Itochu Corporation had joined forces with Degremont, International Power (Dubai Branch) and W J Towell & Co LLC. (OmanObserver) • U.S. said to approve USD 11 Billion Saudi buy of Littoral Ships The Pentagon is notifying Congress of a planned sale to Saudi Arabia of as many as four Littoral Combat Ships for USD 11.25 billion, according to a U.S. official, as the U.S. works to bolster defenses of its Gulf allies after the nuclear deal with Iran. The State Department has approved the sale under the Foreign Military Sales program, according to the official, who asked not to be identified in advance of an announcement. The approval allows the Saudis to negotiate contracts for the ships unless Congress passes legislation to block the deal. The ships are part of a planned modernization, replacing older U.S.- built vessels in the Royal Saudi Navy’s Eastern Fleet. The sale also begins to deliver on President Barack Obama’s pledge to improve the military capabilities of the U.S.’s Arab allies. Saudi Arabia and other nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council sought such reassurances before acquiescing to the U.S.-led deal with Iran on its nuclear program. (Bloomberg) • Iran Sees no OPEC output change as country seeks USD70-80 oil Iran’s oil minister sees no imminent change in OPEC’s output strategy even as he urged fellow members of the group to cut their collective production to buoy crude to a range of USD70 to USD80 a barrel. Iran is preparing to ramp up its own output once world powers remove sanctions on its economy, regardless of any decisions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told reporters Monday at an industry conference in Tehran. “No one is happy” with prices at current levels, he said. “OPEC should decide to manage the market by reducing the level of production,” Zanganeh said. “It seems that the atmosphere is not well for making a change in the market.” OPEC has exceeded its official production target for 16 consecutive months as the group seeks to defend sales amid a global supply glut. OPEC, supplier of about 40% of the world’s oil, plans to assess output when ministers from its 12 members meet on December 4th in Vienna. (Bloomberg) • Credit Agricole said to be near USD 800 million sanction settlement Credit Agricole SA will pay as much as USD 800 million to settle a U.S. probe into violations of sanctions against Iran and Sudan as soon as this week, according to two people briefed on the matter. The deal will feature a deferred-prosecution agreement with the U.S. Justice Department, allowing the French lender to avoid a criminal conviction while admitting it broke U.S. laws a decade ago by handling business involving parties from the blacklisted countries, the people said. The bank is expected to announce settlements at the same time with the Manhattan district attorney’s office, New York’s Department of Financial Services and the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said one of the people, adding that the bank’s board has already agreed to the key terms. The people asked to remain anonymous because the agreements haven’t been made public. (Bloomberg) Page 1 mashreq Fixed Income Trading Daily Market Update Tuesday, October 20, 2015 • Taqa, Volta River Authority start commercial operations at Ghana plant Taqa and Volta River Authority have started commercial operations at T2 power plant in Ghana. Taqa has 90% interest in T2 plant and Volta River Authority has 10% interest. The 330 megawatt T2 power plant in Takoradi is now feeding electricity to the national grid, accounting for about 15% of the country’s total capacity, according to statement posted on Abu Dhabi stock exchange. (Bloomberg) • Sinosteel to default on bonds after government said to help A Chinese state-owned steel trader is set to default on a bond payment even after the government was said to have stepped in to help, highlighting worsening corporate finances as an economic slowdown deepens. Sinosteel Co. will delay an interest payment due Tuesday on 2 billion yuan (USD315 million) of 5.3 percent notes maturing in 2017, according to a statement on Chinabond’s website. The firm is doing so as it plans to back the bonds with stock of unit Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., and that may affect issues related to interest payment, it said without elaborating. (Bloomberg) • German PPI deflates for 26th straight month German factory gate prices contracted for a 26th consecutive month in September on an annualized basis, underscoring the fragility of economic recovery in the Eurozone. Year-on-year producer prices fell 2.1%, versus expectations of a 1.8% dip. They had slipped 1.7% in August. Month-on-month PPI fell 0.4%, compared to expectations of a 0.2% fall. It had fallen 0.5% in August. Germany is Europe's biggest economy and one often assumed to be in relatively better shape than its neighbors. But signs of strain are emerging, with factory orders and exports falling. The German economy grew just 0.4% in the three months to June, missing expectations of 0.5% growth. (FT) • Sri Lanka holds rates as Mahendran eyes next fiscal budget Sri Lanka’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth straight month and Governor Arjuna Mahendran said the government will focus on boosting revenue in its budget due November. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka left its standing lending facility rate at 7.5% and standing deposit facility rate at 6%, Mahendran said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. All four economists in a Bloomberg survey had predicted no change. “Inflation is expected to remain comfortably in low single digit levels by end 2015 despite the impact of the depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against major currencies,” the central bank said in its statement. (Bloomberg) • ECB says credit standards improve as QE program supports lending The European Central Bank said lending conditions largely continued to improve in the third quarter, spurred by its asset-purchase program and tighter competition among banks. Credit standards on loans to companies eased for the sixth consecutive quarter, the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey showed on Tuesday. Terms for mortgages tightened, with banks citing national regulation as the primary cause. A small majority of lenders reported an increase in profitability over the past six months as a result of the central bank’s quantitative-easing program, though deterioration is seen over the next two quarters.
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