American Revolution 2.0

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American Revolution 2.0 American Revolution 2.0 How Education Innovation is Going to Revitalize America and Transform the U.S. Economy July 4, 2012 Michael T. Moe, CFA Matthew P. Hanson, CFA Li Jiang Luben Pampoulov 1 In collaboration with GSV Advisors Deborah Quazzo Michael Cohn Jason Horne Patrick Shelton Special Advisor Michael Horn, Innosight Institute Contributor Sara Leslie Contributor Candlestick Research We would also like to honor and celebrate the lives of Stephen Covey (1932-2012), an educator and author whose work has influenced millions around the world and Sally Ride (1951-2012), a professor and the youngest and first female American astronaut to ever be launched into space. We thank the pioneers who paved the path and serve as an inspiration for all of us. For additional information, please contact Michael Moe, Deborah Quazzo or Matthew Hanson. Contact Email Phone Michael Moe [email protected] 650-294-4780 Assistant: Debbie Elsen [email protected] 650-294-4784 Deborah Quazzo [email protected] 312-397-0070 Assistant: Kerry Rodeghero [email protected] 312-397-0071 Matthew Hanson [email protected] 312-339-4967 A co-author of this paper, Mr. Michael Moe, is a partner of GSV Asset Management, LLC (“GSVAM”), an investment adviser registered with the US Securities Exchange Commission, and the Chief Executive Officer of GSV Capital, Inc., (“GSVC”) a publicly traded Business Development Company for which GSVAM acts as the investment advisor. This paper contains case study information about education and related technology companies, including certain companies in which GSVC has invested. The information contained herein provides only general and summary information regarding any such companies, and contains no material non-public information. This paper is not an offer, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Knowledge Troops - Learning by Numbers 7 Battle Budget - Market Size and Growth Rates 8 Shock and Awe 9 Our Best Days Are Behind Us? 16 The First American Revolution 28 How We Got Here 32 First Shot Fired: A Nation at Risk 41 30 Years Later: A Nation at Even Greater Risk 42 First Wave 42 The Momentum Builds 45 Modern Weaponry 52 Time to Fight 60 The Time is Now 61 The Tidal Wave Comes Ashore: Confluence of Catalysts 61 We Just Need to Imagine 66 Kaizen...Education Style 69 Return on Education (ROE) 71 Knowledge as a Currency (KNAAC) 73 Riding the Megatrends 79 Globalization 80 Internet 82 Mobile 84 Network Effects 86 Free and Freemium 89 Social 91 3 Scaled Delivery 99 Adaptive / Personalization 99 Brands 100 Big Data 101 Cloud 102 Digitization 103 Platform 104 Outsourcing 108 Open Source 109 No Labels 110 Brain Science 111 Weapons of Mass Education – Investment Themes 114 Just For Me 116 1 + 1 = 3 117 The New American Prep School 119 Platform EDU 122 The New Free Ride 124 Knowledge Communities 128 Smart Content 129 Tower of Babel 132 Investing in The Revolution - The 4 Ps Framework 136 People – Follow the Leaders 137 Product – What’s the Claim to Fame? 141 Potential – How Big Could this Become? 143 Predictability – How Visible is the Growth? 145 Education Market Snapshot 150 Capital Markets Dynamics 156 Pre-K Market 176 4 Confluence of Catalysts 176 Family Structures and Education Mismatch 178 Preschool Programs for Children of Working Parents 180 K-12 Market 190 Confluence of Catalysts 190 Education: The New Civil Rights Issue 192 Politicians Are Getting Involved 196 New York, Florida, West Virginia, and New Orleans Lead the Way 198 Education Spending is Having Little Positive Effect on Achievement 202 Homeschooling and Charter Schools 207 Re-Imagining the School Calendar 216 Teachers in the Trenches 221 An Industrial Model for Education 223 Teach for America: a Case Study in Human Capital 225 Schools Are Wired In 227 K-12 System with Individualized Learning 230 Post-Secondary Market 234 Confluence of Catalysts 234 Higher-Ed Snapshot 235 Fighting an Entrenched Status Quo: Higher Education 244 Tuition Far Outpacing Inflation 248 Lifelong Learning Market 262 Confluence of Catalysts 262 Knowledge Economy 263 Mismatch Between Demand for Workers and Supply of Skilled Labor 274 We Are Losing Our Future Technology Leaders 277 Me.Edu 279 Meet Students Where They Are 282 5 American Revolution 2.0 286 Good News, Bad News 286 Educators’ Bootcamp 287 Strategic Battle Plan 287 A New Beginning 293 The Declaration of Independence 295 Appendix 298 Counting It All Up 298 The United States of Education 299 Public Company Directory 308 Supplemental Market Data 310 Supplemental K-12 Data 318 Supplemental Postsecondary Data 325 6 Knowledge Troops - Learning by Numbers United States ‣ 77 million students are enrolled in school, which represents 27% of total population ‣ 20 million are enrolled in postsecondary education ‣ 49 million are enrolled in public PreK-12 ‣ 6 million are enrolled in private PreK-12 ‣ Over 2 million enrolled in charter schools ‣ 7.2 million total teachers, with about 1.7 million in postsecondary ‣ 98,817 public schools and 17,916 total school districts ‣ 33,366 private schools ‣ 5,600 charter schools and 180 virtual charter schools ‣ 6.1 million students took at least one online course Around the World ‣ 655 million students in primary school ‣ 781 million students in secondary school ‣ 608 million students in higher education ‣ 78 million teachers in the world ‣ 26% of the world’s population is under the age of 15 ‣ Top 5 languages in the world, total speakers: 1. Mandarin Chinese: 1.3 billion 2. English: 1.0 billion 3. Spanish: 500 million 4. Hindi: 490 million 5. Arabic: 255 million 7 Battle Budget - Market Size and Growth Rates1 ($ in billions) Knowledge Industry Market Size Market Size Market Size 2012-2017 (2012) (2015) (2017) Growth (CAGR) United States Market Size US Education Expenditure $1,432.1 $1,651.3 $1,805.5 5% Government Spending on Education $941.0 $1,085.4 $1,184.5 5% K-12 $687.7 $788.7 $853.1 4% Postsecondary $535.2 $622.1 $688.5 5% International Students $18.2 $20.5 $24.1 6% Executive MBA $18.9 $19.8 $20.4 2% Corporate & Govt. Learning $133.3 $149.9 $162.2 4% eLearning $32.5 $49.1 $65.6 15% K-12 eLearning $5.4 $9.3 $13.4 20% Higher Ed eLearning $17.4 $28.6 $39.8 18% Corporate eLearning $9.6 $11.2 $12.3 5% For-Profit Postsecondary $30.8 $40.9 $49.5 10% Postsecondary LMS $1.2 $2.4 $3.2 15% Pre-K and Child Care $65.0 $77.4 $87.0 6% Test Prep / Tutoring / Counseling $11.0 $13.1 $14.7 6% Instructional Materials Market (K-12) $20.1 $23.9 $26.9 6% Higher Education Instruction Materials $8.0 $9.5 $10.7 6% Global Market Size Global Education Expenditure $4,450.9 $5,508.7 $6,372.5 7% K-12 $2,227.0 $2,625 $2,930.3 6% Postsecondary $1,495.2 $1,883.5 $2,196.9 8% Corporate & Govt. Learning $356.6 $449.3 $524.0 8% eLearning $90.9 $166.5 $255.5 23% K-12 eLearning $16.6 $39.0 $69.0 33% Higher Ed eLearning $48.8 $95.4 $149.0 25% Corporate eLearning $25.5 $32.1 $37.5 8% For-Profit Postsecondary $96.1 $146.1 $193.2 15% SIS, Finance, Administrative $8.7 $10.3 $11.6 6% Postsecondary LMS $3.5 $1.9 $2.3 10% Social Learning / Communities $1.0 $2.9 $5.6 40% Pre-K and Child Care $200.0 $266.2 $322.1 10% Edu Gaming $2.0 $4.4 $7.4 30% Global Language Learning $115.0 $198.7 $286.2 20% Global English Language Learning $63.3 $123.6 $193.2 25% Test Prep / Tutoring / Counseling $54.0 $78.2 $100.0 13% For-Profit* $590.9 $952.2 $1,311.0 17% *For-Profit: our recommendation is to remove the labels of “for-profit” and “not-for-profit” in education; however, we use them in this context to discuss traditional categorizations for market sizing purposes. 1 GSV Advisors and Candlestick Research, 2012. 8 Shock and Awe United States PreK-12 Education to College Readiness • In 4th grade, American students scored above the international average in mathematics. By 8th grade, they dropped below the international average, and by 12th grade, they only outscored South Africa and Cyprus. • By age 4, there is an 18-month academic gap between an impoverished child and his wealthier peers. • 4 out of 100 kindergarteners entering KIPP Ascend in Chicago in 2010 were able to recognize numbers or letters. By the end of the school year, 94% were reading at a 1st grade level or higher. • 6 out of 10 low-income fourth graders in the U.S. cannot do math at grade level. • Pre-Katrina, 35% of students in New Orleans Public Schools were performing at grade level. In 2011, that number was 56%. • Before Katrina, 22% of New Orleans Public Schools were “academically acceptable”. In 2011, 51% were, and that’s expected to reach 92% by 2016. • In 2009, 99% of public school parents in New Orleans believed that school choice was important. • In 2010, over 90% of New Orleans Public School students were in charter schools. • In 1970, 10% of California’s budget went to higher education and 3% to prisons. In 2010, 11% went to prisons and 8% to higher education. • Only 25% of high school graduates in 2011 met all 4 ACT college-readiness benchmarks. 41% of graduating Asians and 4% of African-Americans met all 4 benchmarks. • In 2011, only 1 of 4 graduating seniors were prepared for college coursework.
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