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Research & Forecast Report Research & Forecast Report EDMONTON OFFICE MARKET Second Quarter 2018 Table of Contents Market Summaries Market Overview ............................................................................................................3 Downtown Financial District .................................................................................... 6 Downtown Government District ............................................................................... 7 Southside, South Henday, Whyte Ave, Eastgate & Sherwood Park ........................... 8 West End, 149th Street, 124th Street & 118th Ave .................................................... 9 Downtown Historical Performance .........................................................................10 Glossary .............................................................................................................................. 11 2 Research & Forecast Report | Second Quarter 2018 | Edmonton Office Market | Colliers International EDMONTON OFFICE MARKET Q2 2018 STANTEC TOWER ENHANCES CLASS AA DISTRICT, TRICKLE DOWN CHANGES EXPECTED MARKET SUMMARY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SUBMARKETS The Edmonton Office market remained active this quarter The classification of the Class AA building was first introduced in terms of leasing activity. Over the course of the quarter, by Colliers in Q1 2014, in anticipation of new developments that 733,541 SF of space was leased while 556,988 SF of were starting to take shape. Representing the highest quality space was vacated resulting in 176,553 SF of net positive office space available in our market, these buildings were a absorption; this is the highest net positive absorption from premium offering and expected to be the new benchmark. At leasing activity seen over the past 5 years. This quarter also the time, 4 properties made up the Class AA district: EPCOR marked a significant construction milestone as Stantec Tower Tower, Manulife Place, Commerce Place, and Bell Tower. was recognized as being completed. At roughly 643,000 SF of Since then, the Financial Class AA has grown to nearly office space, Stantec Tower is the largest office tower addition double the size with the recent additions of the Enbridge to downtown in the last 30 years. This addition to inventory Centre (formerly the Kelly Ramsey Building), Edmonton was expected to increase vacancy to nearly 20%, however Tower, and Stantec Tower. The "flight to quality" was soon due to conversion activity which had reduced vacancy for the to follow, with tenants moving from Class A space to Class past 2 quarters, vacancy rates have maintained below the AA space. The vacancy created in Class A buildings became peak and are at nearly an identical level to Q3 2016 as can be an attractive option for tenants in a Class B or C building, as seen in Figure 1 below. So far this year conversion activity these opportunities may not have been previously available removed 467,000 SF of vacant office space in Q1 2018, while or feasible for consideration. Additionally, a few tenants have new construction completions this quarter added roughly struck deals to move downtown from other districts, adding 722,000 SF of office space to the market. After accounting to an increasingly diverse tenant mix and vibrancy. for net positive leasing activity, vacant office space in the market increased this quarter over last by roughly 545,000 There are a select number of tenants that are willing to pay SF in Q2 2018, increasing the vacancy rate across downtown the premium price for newer Class AA office space, which and suburban markets 160 basis points from 15.58% in Q1 is significantly more expensive than Class A space, and even 2018 to 17.18% Q2 2018. older Class AA space. So far these tenants have typically been from the government, financial, and legal sectors, as Edmonton Oce Market seen in Figure 2 below. These types of tenants are willing 5 Year Historical Net Absorption and Vacancy by Quarter to pay a premium for AA space for a number of reasons 200,000 20.00% including environmental objectives (top level LEED/BOMA Stantec Tower certifications), efficiency and large floor plate designs, and 18.00% 150,000 the prestige and status that comes with being located within a brand new tower. 16.00% 100,000 Significant Lease Transactions In "AA" Towers Since 2011 14.00% BUILDING TENANT SIZE (SF) YEAR 50,000 EPCOR Tower EPCOR 292,000 2011 12.00% EPCOR Tower Government of Canada 129,000 2011 EPCOR Tower Intuit Canada 48,000 2012 - Enbridge Centre Edmonton Tower 10.00% 7 7 3 7 7 5 6 3 4 3 5 5 6 8 4 6 5 8 4 6 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EPCOR Tower Ernst & Young 21,000 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 2 3 3 4 3 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 2 Enbridge Centre Enbridge 305,000 2016 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 8.00% (50,000) Enbridge Centre Field Law 50,000 2016 Enbridge Centre KPMG Canada 40,000 2016 6.00% Enbridge Centre Parlee McLaws LLP 38,000 2016 (100,000) Edmonton Tower City of Edmonton 395,000 2017 4.00% Edmonton Tower Royal Bank Dominion Securities 47,000 2017 (150,000) Stantec Tower Stantec 410,000 2018 2.00% Stantec Tower PriceWaterhouseCoopers 50,000 2018 EPCOR TOWER BioWare 75,000 2019 (200,000) 0.00% Stantec Tower Dentons 62,000 2019 Net Absorption (SF) Vacancy (%) Stantec Tower DLA Piper 25,000 2019 Figure 1: 5-Year Edmonton Office Market Absorption and Vacancy by Quarter Figure 2: Significant Lease Transactions In Downtown "AA" Towers Since 2011 3 Research & Forecast Report | Second Quarter 2018 | Edmonton Office Market | Colliers International GROWING DOWNTOWN CLASS A OPPORTUNITY space to the Downtown Financial Class A district. At the end of With Stantec’s move from the Government Class A district Q2 2018, vacancy rate in the Government Class A district has to the Financial Class AA district, we expect the "flight to risen from 7.58% to 20.41% and vacancy rate in the Financial quality" to continue for the foreseeable future. The substantial Class A district has also increased albeit at a slower pace, vacancy created by Stantec opens up further mid- and high- from 18.94% to 19.30% this quarter. It is expected that the quality opportunities for tenants to pursue. growing amount of space available in these Class A districts, especially downtown Government, will create opportunities Of the 643,000 SF of office space in Stantec Tower, 460,502 for further "flight to quality" moves from tenants throughout SF is recognized as being leased this quarter. Stantec will the city. be moving from their current premises at Stantec Center, the Devonian Building and Stantec 2, and consolidating into In addition to Stantec, other moves will also add to a growing 410,000 SF in the new Stantec Tower. As a result of the Class A opportunity. PriceWaterhouseCoopers will be move, Stantec Centre and the Devonian Building will become vacating 41,672 SF from TD Tower and leasing 50,502 SF in available, adding 348,271 SF of vacant office space to the Stantec Tower and although not recognized this quarter, DLA Downtown Government Class A district. Stantec 2 will also Piper will be vacating 24,000 SF in Scotia Place and leasing become entirely available, adding 57,000 SF of vacant office 25,317 SF in Stantec Tower in 2019. Edmonton Skyline - Signicant Tenant Movements Upon Stantec Tower Completion STANTEC TOWER MANULIFE PLACE TD TOWER STANTEC STANTEC 2 CENTRE DEVONIAN BUILDING SCOTIA PLACE VACATING VACATING VACATING LEASED VACATING LEASED VACATING LEASED VACATING LEASED 189,304 SF 123,990 SF 57,000 SF 410,000 SF 41,672 SF 50,502 SF 63,000 SF 62,000 SF 24,000 SF 25,317 SF STANTEC DEVONIAN STANTEC 2 STANTEC TD TOWER STANTEC MANULIFE STANTEC SCOTIA PLACE STANTEC CENTRE BUILDING TOWER TOWER PLACE TOWER (2019) TOWER (2019) (2019) (2019) 4 Research & Forecast Report | Second Quarter 2018 | Edmonton Office Market | Colliers International TENANT ACTIVITY LOOKING FORWARD Lease transactions this quarter totalled approximately 733,541 Since Q2 2017, the Edmonton Office market has seen SF, where tenants 10,000 SF and above account for 78% of many changes in both leasing activity and construction that this figure. As Q1 2018 lease transactions totalled 370,000 have resulted in a turbulent, but positive trend towards an SF, our Q2 2018 numbers showed a healthy increase in improving office market. Q4 2017 was the first quarter to leasing activity of roughly double the quarter prior. This return to positive absorption after 11 consecutive negative strong leasing activity has helped mitigate vacancy increases quarters. Since then, both Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 continued as new supply comes onto the market and is suggestive of a the trend of positive absorption, with Q2 2018 posting the positive economic outlook for the City. Tenants are continuing largest quarterly absorption seen over the past 5 years. This to negotiate favorable leases, and with a growing amount of continued and growing leasing activity is a promising sign downtown Government Class A options coming available, that tenants are active in the marketplace and opportunities landlords must continue to remain competitive in what are present for both tenants and landlords who can remain remains a challenging marketplace. competitive. Notable Lease Transactions The recovery of the office market from peak vacancy levels in Q2 2017 is correlated to the economic recovery taking BUILDING TENANT SIZE (APPROX. SF) place in Alberta as key economic indicators forecast either Stantec Tower Stantec Consulting 410,000 stable or slight growth: Bonaventure Gate Alberta Government 57,000 > ATB Financial’s Alberta Economic Outlook forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7% for the remainder of the year.
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