Agent Based Modeling for Supply Chain Management: Examining the Impact of Information Sharing
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
AGENT BASED MODELING FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION SHARING A dissertation submitted to: Kent State University Graduate School of Management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Xiaozhou (David) Zhu December, 2008 Dissertation written by Xiaozhou (David) Zhu B.S, Shanghai Institute of Mechanical Engineering, 1989 M.B.A., Kent State University, 1999 M.A. Computer Science, Kent State University, 2002 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2008 Approved by: _______________________________ Chair, Doctoral Dissertation Committee _______________________________ Member, Doctoral Dissertation Committee _______________________________ Member, Doctoral Dissertation Committee _______________________________ Member, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Accepted by: _______________________________ Doctoral Director, Graduate School of Management _______________________________ Dean, Graduate School of Management Acknowledgements Although only my name appears on the cover of this dissertation, a large number of important people in my life have contributed to its production and completion, to whom I own my great gratitude, and because of whom my graduate experience has become cherishable forever. I would like to gratefully and sincerely thank Dr. Marvin Troutt for his guidance, understanding, patience, and most importantly, his friendship during my graduate studies at Kent State University. I have been amazingly fortunate to have an advisor who gave me the freedom to explore on my own and at the same time the guidance to recover when my steps faltered. Marvin taught me how to question thoughts and express ideas. His patience and support helped me overcome many crisis situations and finish this dissertation. I am also thankful to him for encouraging the use of correct grammar and consistent notation in my writings and for carefully reading and commenting on countless revisions of this manuscript. Dr. Murali Shanker, has been always there to listen and give advice. I am deeply grateful to him for his assistance and guidance in getting my graduate career started on the right foot. I am also thankful for the long discussions that helped me sort out the technical details of my work. Dr. Michael Hu’s insightful comments and constructive criticisms at different stages of my research were thought-provoking and they helped me focus my ideas. I am grateful to him for holding me to a high research standard and enforcing strict validations for each research result, and thus teaching me how to do research. Michael has also been a close friend and I did enjoy being invited to eat out with him and having him pay for the meals. I am also grateful to the former or current staff at Kent State University, for their various forms of support during my graduate study. My special thanks go to Ms. Pam Silliman, who has been so helpful in facilitating my study and teaching in the department, as well as so cheerful that I did enjoy the six years in the program. Many friends have helped me stay sane through these difficult years. Their support and care helped me overcome setbacks and stay focused on my graduate study. I greatly value their friendship and I deeply appreciate their belief in me. Most importantly, none of this would have been possible without the love and patience of my family. My family, to whom this dissertation is dedicated to, has been a constant source of love, concern, support and strength through all these years. I would like to express my heart-felt gratitude to my wife Dr. Sijing Zong, my dearest daughters Ruobing and Renee, my parents Xiping Zhu and Aihua Yu, my parents-in-law Shouyin Zong and Tianzhi Shi, as well as many others. 5 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction and Background ……………………………………...….... 8 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Literature Review ...............................................................................................16 1.2.1 Models in SCM Research .............................................................................17 1.2.1.1 Define the Supply Chain .........................................................................17 1.2.1.2 SCM Defined ..........................................................................................19 1.2.1.3 Categories of SCM Models ……………………………………….........22 1.2.1.3.1 Models of Contracting Relationships …………………………........26 1.2.1.3.2 Models of Information .......................................................................31 1.2.1.3.2.1 Models of Information Sharing ...................................................31 1.2.1.3.2.2 Information Distortion: the Bullwhip Effect ...............................36 1.2.1.3.3 Models of Operational Relationships …………………………..........39 1.2.1.3.3.1 Pricing Models ..................................................................................39 1.2.1.3.3.2 Inventory Models ..............................................................................41 1.2.1.3.3.3 Capacity Models ...............................................................................43 1.2.1.3.4 Summary of SCM Model Research …………………….………...…....44 1.3 Information Sharing Research in SCM …………………………….…………....45 Chapter 2 Methodology ..............................................................................................50 2.1 Agent Based Modeling .........................................................................................50 2.1.1 Agents .............................................................................................................52 2.1.2 Multi-Agent Based Simulation (MABS) ........................................................56 2.1.3 Agent Structure Design ...................................................................................62 2.1.4 Agent Based Modeling in SCM ......................................................................63 Chapter 3 The Model ..................................................................................................72 6 3.1 Conceptual Model .................................................................................................72 3.1.1 Components and Connections .........................................................................74 3.1.2 Modeling Structure ..........................................................................................76 3.2 General consideration of model design architecture .............................................86 3.2.1 Environment ....................................................................................................87 3.2.2 Agent objectives and behaviors .......................................................................88 3.2.2.1 Agent objectives ........................................................................................89 3.2.2.2 Agent behaviors .........................................................................................90 3.2.3 Important Parameters .......................................................................................92 3.2.4 The Architecture ..............................................................................................93 3.3 Model implementation ...........................................................................................98 Chapter 4 Experimental Design and Analysis ............................................................104 4.1 External Validation ................................................................................................104 4.1.1 The Results .......................................................................................................119 4.2 Experimental Design (Internal Validation) ............................................................128 4.2.1 The Results .......................................................................................................134 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Future Research ...............................................................150 5.1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................153 5.2 Future Research ......................................................................................................157 5.3 Software Packages for Building and Running the Agent-Based Models …...….....159 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................164 Appendix The Java Code for the Model Implementation ……………………….....…180 7 Chapter 1 Introduction and Background 1.1 Introduction A supply chain is a complex dynamic system. Every member (or agent) within the system engages repeatedly in local interactions, giving rise to many flows such as information, material, orders, money, personnel, and capital as defined by Forrester (1959). These flows in turn feed back into the determination of local interactions. The result is an intricate system of interdependent feedback loops connecting micro behaviors, interaction patterns, and flows of different types. Researchers have grappled with the modeling of supply chain management systems in the past two decades. Nevertheless, the industrial dynamic systems devised by Jay W. Forrester in the late 1950’s, in which he systematically defines the levels and flows in a industrial dynamic system, still remains the fundamental paradigm that frame the way many researchers in this field construct models for their research.