Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State Guardian Hybrid Regimes in Turkey and Thailand

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Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State Guardian Hybrid Regimes in Turkey and Thailand Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State Guardian Hybrid Regimes in Turkey and Thailand Simon Paul Watmough Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, 07 April 2017 European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State Guardian Hybrid Regimes in Turkey and Thailand Simon Paul Watmough Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Professor Christian Reus-Smit, formerly EUI/University of Queensland, Supervisor Professor Philippe Schmitter, European University Institute (Emeritus) Professor Laurence Whitehead, University of Oxford Professor Ayşe Zarakol, University of Cambridge © Simon Watmough, 2017 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work Department of Political and Social Sciences - Doctoral Programme I Simon Paul Watmough certify that I am the author of the work Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State: Guardian Hybrid Regimes in Turkey and Thailand I have presented for examination for the Ph.D. at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 112,038 words. Signature and date: 31 January 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Table of Contents .........................................................................................................................................i List of Figures and Tables ......................................................................................................................... v List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... vi Preface and Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................. viii Introduction Democracy in the Shadow of the Deep State ................................................................ 1 The nature of political order in Turkey and Thailand ....................................................................... 3 Guardian hybrid regimes defined ......................................................................................................... 6 Puzzles and questions ............................................................................................................................ 7 Alternative accounts ............................................................................................................................. 11 The argument ........................................................................................................................................ 12 Methodological considerations ........................................................................................................... 14 Comparative historical methodology ............................................................................................ 14 Case selection and comparative logic............................................................................................ 15 Method .............................................................................................................................................. 16 Sources .............................................................................................................................................. 17 Plan of the dissertation ........................................................................................................................ 18 Part I: Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................................ 20 Chapter One The Puzzle of Guardian Hybrid Regimes ..................................................................... 21 The breakdown and replacement of political governance structures: regime theory in transition ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Transitions from authoritarian rule ............................................................................................... 22 Comparative regime analysis and the ‘missing variable’ of institutions ................................... 28 Of judges and generals: The political construction of ‘guardian’ institutions ............................. 33 ‘Guardian’ militaries: The institutionalization of military prerogatives as political strategy . 33 ‘Guardian’ courts: Judicial empowerment and the hegemonic preservation thesis ............... 36 Thai and Turkish studies ..................................................................................................................... 39 Major contributions ......................................................................................................................... 39 Blind spots ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 44 Chapter Two The Rise and Consolidation of Guardian Hybrid Regimes ...................................... 46 Conceptual building blocks: The compents of path-dependent explanation in comparative- historical analysis .................................................................................................................................. 51 Critical junctures and antecedent conditions ............................................................................... 51 Institutional reproduction ............................................................................................................... 53 i Reactive sequences and final regime outcomes ........................................................................... 53 The Historical Argument .................................................................................................................... 55 Antecedent conditions: The centre–periphery cleavage and the character of the security environment ...................................................................................................................................... 55 Critical juncture: Hegemonic restoration and the establishment of the guardian hybrid regime ............................................................................................................................................................ 63 Institutional reproduction ............................................................................................................... 73 Legacies of the critical juncture: reactive sequences and final outcomes ................................ 82 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 86 Part II: Antecedent Conditions ............................................................................................................... 88 Chapter Three State- and Nation-Building and the Centre–Periphery Divide in Turkey and Thailand ...................................................................................................................................................... 89 Centre and periphery: The grounds of Turkish and Thai politics ................................................. 91 Origins: State- and nation-building in the nineteenth century ....................................................... 93 Traditional order .............................................................................................................................. 93 The Western imperial challenge ..................................................................................................... 95 State- and nation-building and the emergence of the modern centre–periphery cleavage ... 97 Elite bureaucratic ‘revolutions from above’: Birth of the ‘bureaucratic polity’ ......................... 102 The Turkish revolution (1922–23) .............................................................................................. 102 The Siamese revolution (1932) .................................................................................................... 103 The ‘bureaucratic polity’ ............................................................................................................... 104 Summary .............................................................................................................................................
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