1981INo. 14 Africa ZIMBABWE: A POLITICAL BALANCE SHEET Part I: Consolidation and Integration by J. Gus Liebenow Robert Mugabe has guided Zimbabwe skillfully and judiciously into majority rule. Now other problems face the post- revolutionary government: urban and rural violence, exodus of white talent and capital, and dissension within the bipartisan coalition. [JGL-2-'811 ISSN 01 61 -0724 The American Universities Field INSTITUTIONAL MEMBERS American Staff, Inc., founded in 1951, is a non- University of Alabama profit, membership corporation of Brown University American educational institutions. It Universities employs a full-time staff of foreign California State area specialists who write from University/Fullerton abroad and make periodic visits to California State Field Staff member institutions. 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They combine long residence source of firsthand observation of abroad with scholarly studies relat- political, economic, and social trends ing to their geographic areas of in foreign countries. Reports in the interest. Each Field Staff Associate series are prepared by writers who returns to the United States periodi- are full-time Associates of the cally to lecture on the campuses of American Universities Field Staff the consortium's member institu- and occasionally by persons on leave tions. from the organizations and univer- sities that are the Field Staff's spon- sors. THE AUTHOR Association and a member of the Fellow at Harvard University; and re- Executive Council of the International ceived his Ph.D. in Political Science African Institute in London. from Northwestern University in 1955. A member of Phi Beta Kappa and Phi Professor Liebenow began his field work Kappa Phi, he taught at the University of in Africa in 1953, and he has spent 6 of Texas before coming to lndiana Univer- the past 25 years doing research, teach- sity in 1958. He was the first Director of ing, and service in tropical Africa. He is African Studies at lndiana (1960-1972) the author of Liberia: The Evolution of and served as Dean for International Privilege; Colonial Rule and Political Programs (1968-1972) and Vice Presi- Development in Tanzania: The Case of dent for Academic Affairs for the the Makonde; African Attitudes towards lndiana University system (1972-1974). Agriculture, Education, and Rural Trans- formation; and of numerous journal articles and chapters in edited volumes. Dr. Liebenow is a specialist on the prob- lems of local government; urbanization; management of the African environ- ment; politics of migration; and feder- J. GUS LIEBENOW, Professor of Polit- alism. ical Science at lndiana University, is one of the pioneers in the study of politics in Dr. Liebenow received his B.A. (summa cum laude) and M.A. from the Univer- @ 1981, American Universities Field sub-Saharan Africa. He is the immediate Staff, Hanover, NH Past President of the African Studies sity of Illinois; was a Goodwin Memorial 1981INo. 14 by J. Gus Liebenow ZIMBABWE: A POLITICAL Africa [J G L-2-'81 I BALANCE SHEET Part I: Consolidation and Integration Media reporting on political develop- December 1979. The Lancaster violence; much white talent and ments in sub-Saharan Africa all too House agreement temporarily re- capital has left the country; Prime often suffers from a lack of historical established the British colonial Minister Mugabe's government has and sociological perspective. In few authority, which had been shed in had difficulty resettling over a mil- places has this been more obvious November 1965 when the Rhode- lion wartime refugees; the concept than in coverage of Zimbabwe, sian Front Party of Ian Smith opted of multiparty democracy in Zim- which achieved its independence for a "unilateral declaration of in- babwe is being challenged; and the April 18, 1980. Formerly Rhodesia, dependence" (UDI) for the white leadership has been unable to con- the country became the focus of minority. The 1979 settlement set in vert former guerrilla fighters into world attention during the bitter motion a military cease-fire and soldiers quickly for a unified defense 7-year war in which liberation forces paved the way for an internationally force. These are real problems, and under Robert Mugabe and Joshua supervised election to determine the Mugabe regime recognizes them Nkomo sought to end the 92-year which party or parties would lead as such. The relevant question, domination of 7 million blacks by a the new country at independence. however, is "compared to what?" white minority of roughly 250,000. More than 25,000 Africans and sev- The incongruity between the news If one is properly to assess the state eral hundred whites had lost their coverage of postindependence of affairs in Zimbabwe after ten lives before international pressure events and the actual situation was months of independence, then the brought the parties to the nego- readily apparent to me during a visit pessimistic reporting of today must tiating table. Under skillful British to Zimbabwe in mid-1980. This is be measured against the dire pre- prodding, a settlement was put to- not to suggest that the reports had dictions of irresolvable turmoil that gether at Lancaster House in Lon- been falsified. There have indeed Lowering the British Union Jack at ln- don during the waning days of been incidents of urban and rural dependence, April 18, 1980. followed UDI in November 1965. predictions. It was assumed, for which the Smith regime paid an Informed observers then were pre- example, that the Zimbabwe strug- enormous price. (During the boy- dicting that the wave of indepen- gle would eventually become the cott, the only currency into which dence sweeping East and West focal point of regional, continental- the Rhodesian dollar could be con- Africa in the 1960s would stop dead, even global -confrontation. Indeed, verted was the South African rand.) short of the southern "white re- these predictions were partially doubtu-that is, South Africa, realized late in the war when the Indeed, Zimbabwe is doing better South-West Africa (Namibia), Por- white-dominated regime began than anyone had a right to expect, a tuguese-controlled Angola and bombing bridges and railroads lead- view I share with other recent Mozambique, and Rhodesia. In the ing to guerrilla sanctuaries. In some scholarly visitors. Much of this last case, the great disparities in cases the Rhodesian troops pene- cautious optimism centers on the power and control over resources, it trated deeply into Angola, Mozam- creative personality of Robert was argued, inevitably subordinated bique, and Zambia, the "frontline Mugabe. Far from being the obsti- the black majority to white minority states" which, along with Tanzania nate and doctrinaire radical leader rule. It was alleged, furthermore, and Botswana, provided concerted depicted by his critics during the that the ethnic, ideological, political, support to the liberation efforts. war, 55-year-old Mugabe has and personality cleavages within the emerged as a refreshingly mature black leadership cadre were so deep Predictions of global confrontation statesman. Already enjoying influ- that the majority was incapable of reposed on the fact that military ence beyond his country, Mugabe mounting a concerted liberation support for the guerrillas came pri- was lionized by the other heads of effort. Moreover, many observers marily from the socialist bloc. The African nations during his inaugural predicted that, if push came to Chinese supplied Mugabe's Zim- appearance at the Organization of shove, the apartheid regime in babwe African National Liberation African States summit meeting in South Africa would come to the Army (ZANLA), based in Mozam- Freetown in July 1980, and he re- rescue of the beleaguered white bique, while the Soviet Union sup- ceived elaborate coverage from the ported the rival Zimbabwe African Rhodesians, the price for support American and foreign news media being imposition of an even more People's Revolutionary Army during his New York United Nations oppressive form of racial discrimina- (ZIPRA) of Nkomo, which operated appearance when Zimbabwe was out of Zambia. Iraq, Libya, and other tion. At the other extreme, it was admitted as the 153rd member. asserted that a black victory and the socialist states were also involved. Within central and southern Africa, subsequent expulsion of white The prophecies of American inter- moreover, there is growing senti- settlers would leave chaos in its vention were based on U.S. strate- ment that Mugabe and his country gic and mineral interests in Zim- wake, with the black survivors should become the new focal point babwe and southern Africa gener- backsliding into ancient animosities for regional economic and political among the Mashona