A Survey of Army Research War Gaming in Canada 1958-2004
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A Survey of Army Research War Gaming in Canada 1958-2004 P.R. Anderson L.J. Byrne ORBITA Consultants Limited Ottawa, ON 7KHVFLHQWLILFRUWHFKQLFDOYDOLGLW\RIWKLV&RQWUDFW5HSRUWLVHQWLUHO\WKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH&RQWUDFWRUDQGWKH FRQWHQWVGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\KDYHWKHDSSURYDORUHQGRUVHPHQWRI'HIHQFH5 '&DQDGD DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 December 2011 Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis National Défense Defence nationale A Survey of Army Research War Gaming in Canada 1958-2004 P. R. Anderson L.J. Byrne Prepared By: ORBITA Consultants Limited Ottawa ON PWGSC Contract Number: W7714-115214/001/SV CSA: Peter Archambault ; Brad Gladman, Strategic Analysis, 613-996-1423 The scientific or technical validity of this Contract Report is entirely the responsibility of the Contractor and the contents do not necessarily have the approval or endorsement of Defence R&D Canada. Defence R&D Canada – CORA Contract Report DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 December 2011 Principal Author Original signed by P. R. Anderson P. R. Anderson ORBITA Consultants Limited Approved by Original signed by Gregory Smolynec Gregory Smolynec Section Head Strategic Analysis Approved for release by Original signed by Paul Comeau Paul Comeau DRDC-CORA Chief Scientist Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2011 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract …….. This report extends the earlier history of the Canadian Army Operational Research Establishment (CAORE) prepared J.W. Mayne in the area of Research Wargaming, covering the period from acquisition of the War Game in 1958 to its transfer out of CORA in 2004 . It starts with some lessons drawn from early experience with the table top game, then describes the development of the game from its purely manual table-top version through increasing degrees of computer assistance to the final computer based JANUS game. The many series of research war games played in the period are sampled rather than described in detail, in large part for security reasons. The paper concludes with a section of lessons learned over time. Résumé …..... Le présent rapport donne suite aux travaux portant sur les jeux de guerre pour la recherche qu’a exécutés J.W. Mayne dans les premières années d’existence du Centre de recherche opérationnelle de l’Armée canadienne (Canadian Army Operational Research Establishment – CAORE). Nous nous intéressons à la période commençant à l’acquisition du jeu de guerre en 1958 jusqu’à ce qu’il soit transféré à une organisation externe au CARO, en 2004. Nous commençons en examinant certaines leçons tirées d’expériences effectuées à l’aide du jeu sur table, puis nous décrivons l’évolution progressive du jeu vers une version entièrement informatisée (JANUS) en passant par la version sur table assistée par ordinateur. Pour des raisons de sécurité principalement, nous avons préféré ne pas donner beaucoup de détails sur les nombreux jeux de guerre de recherche réalisés durant la période en question. La dernière section du rapport couvre les leçons retenues au fil du temps. DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 i This page intentionally left blank. ii DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 Executive summary A Survey of Army Research War Gaming in Canada 1958-2004 P. R. Anderson; L. J. Byrne; DRDC CORA CR 2011-225; Defence R&D Canada – CORA; December 2011. Introduction or background: CAORE (Canadian Army Operational Research Establishment) obtained its initial research war game from the British Army OR establishment in the late 1950s. Its adaptation to Canadian Army problems and use up to 1965 is described in Mayne's history (Ref 1) and it is not intended to deal with it here in detail. Instead a contemporary view from an analyst closely involved with acquisition of the game and its initial Canadian use and development is provided. Important lessons are drawn from this experience which continued to be relevant over the decades of research war gaming. This paper then extends Mayne's work from the late sixties to early 2000's, but in a less comprehensive fashion. It restricts itself to research wargaming, although the adaptation and use of research war games for training was a continuing activity for the research war gaming section and involvement in training games contributed significantly to the Canadian perspective on research war gaming. The period covered is one of significant change in the roles of the Canadian Army during the cold war and since, in the availability and capability of computers to support OR and war gaming and in the decision making processes related to major equipment procurement decisions. Each of these impacted the development of the War Game. The report assumes a basic understanding of war gaming as an analytical technique, generally providing only pointers to more detailed descriptions for the reader wishing to explore further. For those without that basic knowledge, Shephard's paper from 1963 (Ref 2) provides an excellent, concise overview of research war gaming – why it is a necessary technique for Army OR, what it involves and what it can achieve. Results: In the years covered by this report over fifty “series” of research war games have been played, some single games examining a single organizational structure and scenario, some involving several games with equipment and scenario variants and many replications of combat situations being considered. No attempt has been made here to describe or even reference each of them beyond a simple listing by series name (Annex A) that allows easy access to further information held in the CORA library. In part this has been driven by security concerns and the difficulties of re-examining classification of old work and in part by the need to keep the scope manageable. So the discussion of games played is limited to a representative sampling intended to illustrate the range of problems tackled, the nature of war game results and influence and the strengths and weaknesses of the wargaming technique Following the comments on the CAORE experience the paper examines three distinct periods of Research War Gaming in the Operational Research Division, (ORD). For most of the time this was conducted in the Directorate of Land Operational Research (DLOR) by the War Game Section, later the Research War Game Team (RWGT). These acronyms are used interchangeably throughout as organizational references. DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 iii The first period, from 1965 to early 1980s, is one of introduction of computer assistance to the manual board game, on a continually changing and ever increasing scale as computing capability developed. It was also a period of change in defence policy, unification of the three services and change of role for the Land Forces especially in Europe. The second period from 1983 to 1990 can be seen now as one of transition from the traditional table top game with computer assistance to the fully computer based game, JANUS. The final period from 1990 to 2004 is one with an almost total reliance on JANUS for research war gaming, with the end of the Cold War bringing a transition to a more general capability based planning approach for future force structures based upon generic scenarios rather than the previous specific operational scenarios (mainly European). Paradoxically this period also saw the beginning of almost continuous involvement in real operations for the Canadian Army. In 2004 the Research War Gaming capability was transferred from the Operational Research Division to the Army training and doctrine centre in Kingston. Few if any of those directly in research gaming at that time accepted an accompanying transfer and it does not seem that the research war gaming capability has survived although a strong training game capability continues at Kingston. The final section of the paper reviews some broad lessons learned for consideration in the conduct of research wargaming. iv DRDC CORA CR 2011-225 Sommaire ..... A Survey of Army Research War Gaming in Canada 1958-2004 P. R. Anderson; L. J. Byrne; DRDC CORA CR 2011-225; R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO; Décembre 2011. Introduction ou contexte : Le Centre de recherche opérationnelle de l’Armée canadienne (Canadian Army Operational Research Establishment – CAORE) a obtenu son premier jeu de guerre conçu pour la recherche, gracieuseté du centre de recherche opérationnelle de l’armée britannique vers la fin des années 1950. Son adaptation aux problèmes de l’Armée canadienne et l’utilisation qu’en a faite cette dernière jusqu’en 1965 sont décrites dans l’ouvrage de J.W. Mayne (réf. 1). Nous ne nous attardons donc pas sur ce point dans le présent document. Nous nous intéressons plutôt au regard contemporain d’un analyste possédant une connaissance intime au sujet de l’acquisition du jeu en question ainsi que de la façon dont le Canada en faisait usage initialement et des développements qu’il lui a apportés. De cette expérience, d’importantes leçons ont été tirées, leçons qui ont d’ailleurs nourri la recherche en matière de jeux de guerre tout au long des décennies qui ont suivi. Dans le présent rapport, nous donnons suite aux travaux qu’a effectués M. Mayne à partir de la fin des années 1960 jusqu’au début des années 2000, quoique de façon plus sommaire. Nous nous en tenons strictement aux jeux de guerre conçus pour la recherche, bien que la section responsable de ces jeux les a fréquemment adaptés et utilisés à des fins d’entraînement, une utilisation qui, d’ailleurs, a fortement contribué à forger l’expertise canadienne en la matière. Durant et depuis la période observée, soit l’époque de la guerre froide, l’Armée canadienne a vu évoluer considérablement ses rôles, la disponibilité et les capacités de ses ordinateurs pour la recherche opérationnelle (RO) et les jeux de guerre, et ses processus de prise de décisions concernant les acquisitions importantes d’équipement.