ARMOURED VEHICLES GLOBAL INVENTORIES 2016-17 INTRODUCTION As detailed in Defence IQ’s 6th annual Global Armoured Vehicles Market Report (2017), the armoured vehicles market is projected to reach $15.17 billion in 2017. According to the report’s proprietary survey data, confidence in the global armoured vehicle market has rebounded after a temporary downturn, underpinned by steadily rising defence budgets, new contract opportunities and recent big ticket government investments. In addition to survey data and analysis the report also uncovered a continued demand for landmine/IED protection worldwide and growing demand for Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) and Light Protected Vehicles. Among the global community, there are also seen increasing dangers of directed energy and other types of anti-vehicles systems that demand innovative and cost-effective solutions as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have risen in the past year as the world’s focal countries for armoured vehicles business. This follow-on report details global vehicle inventories – in easy-to-read table format – in so far as it is possible to calculate. Of course, some nations and regions are less transparent than others about the exact units stocked in their military vehicle fleets, but we hope the information enclosed can help readers garner a greater understanding of the current situation for end-users. This report has been issued ahead of the 17th Annual International Armoured Vehicles conference, taking place in London, UK, on 23-26 January. A registration form can be found at www.internationalarmouredvehicles.com. Need more information? Contact us: +44 (0) 20 7036 1300 Email:[email protected] Credit: nimr.ae 2 MARKET SUMMARY The market for armoured vehicles continues to be buoyant, with the Asia-Pacific region predicted to be the major growth area over the next 10 years. Afghanistan, Australia, China, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand all have major armoured vehicle procurement programmes underway or in a planning phase. Despite large budget cuts, the United States still plans to devote significant funds to its AMPV, JLTV (US Army/ USMC) and (for the US Marines) ACV programmes. There are still large numbers of Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) in service worldwide. An estimated 53,354 are in current inventories, the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 42.2 percent of the total (22,535). Europe (excluding Russia and the CIS countries) now has some 7,493 MBTs, equating to 14 percent of the global fleet (see annex A). Nevertheless, some 6,000 MBTs are forecast to be produced globally over the next 10 years, valued at $26 billion. Excluding MBTs, there are an estimated 148,397 light armoured vehicles (armoured cars, AIFVs and APCs) in service around the globe (see annex B). Europe operates 23.9 percent of the total (35,414) and 23 European countries have procurement programmes under way or planned, with many new vehicles on the market from European manufacturing companies. The Middle-East accounts for over 15.8 percent of the world fleet (23,511), with active procurement programmes in Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the U.A.E. and increased spending on armoured vehicles forecast until at least the end of the decade. Although Latin America only has some 8,651 light armoured vehicles (5.8 percent), several vehicles are successfully produced in the region and Brazil is the largest market, with procurement programmes also in Argentina, Jamaica, Paraguay (planned), Peru and Venezuela. Some 11,000 light tracked vehicles are forecast to be produced over the next decade, valued at over $30 billion, whereas nearly 27,000 light wheeled vehicles, valued at over $12 billion are also forecast to be produced. At least 37 countries now operate Protected patrol Vehicles (PPVs). Credit: nimr.ae 3 A SNAPSHOT OF DEVELOPMENTS Australia The Land 400 requirement will procure a family of future combat vehicles. The new vehicles will replace the Australian Light Armoured Vehicle and the M113AS4 APC platforms currently in service with three new platform variants: the combat reconnaissance vehicle (CRV); infantry fighting vehicle (IFV); and manoeuvre support vehicle (MSV). The CRV has the highest priority. 1,100 Thales Hawkei vehicles were procured in October 2015, along with 1,000 trailers, for $940 million, to fulfil the Land 121 Phase 4 requirement. Belgium Belgium has ordered 108 Fox 4x4 Rapid Reaction Vehicles (RRVs) from Jankel. Cameroon Cameroon’s Presidential Guard is the first known operator of the Saymar Musketeer light armoured vehicle. Cameroon appears to have operated Musketeers since at least 2014. It is unclear how many are in service. Cameroon’s elite Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) has acquired South African-made Ratel armoured vehicles. Deliveries reportedly began in December 2015 and the BIR how has 12 vehicles spread between a number of its Light Intervention Units (ULI) deployed to the Far North province, where the elite force leads operations against the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram. Canada Canada’s special forces unit has asked for bids for a new fleet of ultralight combat vehicles. The vehicles will provide special forces with the capability for off-road operations and will be air transportable by Canadian Air Force Chinook helicopters as well as C-17 and C-130 transporters. 52 of the ultralight combat vehicles (ULCV) will be procured and there is an option for another 26 vehicles. Chile The Chilean Army has started to update its ageing military truck fleet under the Projecto Alfil (Bishop Project). China China’s continues procurement of the Type 98 MBT family – including the Type 99 and 99A2. Procurement of the Type 97/97A family also continues. Along with its continued CA-1091 truck procurement, the Chinese market is very strong but is viewed as almost entirely unaccessible by foreign vehicle suppliers due to its reliance on domestically produced platforms. 4 Czech Republic Of the 107 Steyr Pandur II 8x8 wheeled armoured vehicles in service with the ACR, 30 need some form of repair and a further 10 are unfit for combat and must undergo extensive maintenance. The ACR also plans to overhaul at least eight of its 30 T-72M4CZ main battle tanks to increase the combat effectiveness of the ACR’s sole tank battalion. The Czech MoD has listed the replacement of the ACR’s BVP fleet with a modern tracked AFV by 2025 as one of its acquisition priorities Estonia Estonia has procured additional CV90 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) for its armed forces, signing a contract for 35 more CV90 hulls from Norway in January 2016. The additional vehicles will complement the 44 CV9035NL IFVs that Estonia purchased from the Netherlands in December 2014. Finland The procurement of the LEOPARD A6 fleet from the Netherlands is a significant addition to Army’s capabilities. The LEOPARD A6 does not replace the older LEOPARD A4 fleet, as the older tanks remain in service – thus increasing the Army’s mobile firepower. The mid-life update (MLU) project for the BMP-1 IFV is ongoing. The mid-life update of the XA-180 APC will soon be completed and there is an option to update the whole fleet. France Under current plans, the French Army is expected to receive 248 Jaguar EBRCs to replace the AMX-10RCR 6x6 and Sagaie 6x6 armoured cars, which have been in service for more than 30 years. The Griffon VBMR – of which 1,732 are expected to be built – is the replacement for the deployed Vehicule de l’Avant Blindé (VAB) 4x4 armoured personnel carrier (APC). The French Army, which currently deploys around 40 VAB variants, is expected to develop a number of more specialised versions of the VBMR including ambulance, command post, combat engineer, and repair/ recovery. The largest French Army tracked AFV programme in recent years has been the Leclerc MBT, for which Nexter Systems is the prime contractor. A total of 406 Leclerc MBTs were manufactured for France and the United Arab Emirates has received 436 (in several variants) optimised for operations in the Middle East. France’s Leclerc fleet has been reduced to 220 tanks and in 2015 the DGA awarded Nexter Systems a contract to modernize 200 Leclerc MBTs and 18 Leclerc armoured recovery vehicles (ARVs) to extend their operational life out to 2035 and 2040, respectively. 5 Nexter Systems has completed deliveries of 630 Véhicule Blindé de Combat d’Infanterie (VBCI) 8x8s to the French Army, of which 520 are in the VCI infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) configuration and the remaining 110 in the vehicle command post configuration. In September 2015 Nexter Systems unveiled the VBCI-2 8x8 IFV for the export market. The Aravis 4x4 is another of Nexter Systems’ private venture developments. The first customer was the French Army, which received 15 vehicles as part of a route-clearing package for deployment to Afghanistan. This is understood to have been followed by a Saudi Arabian order for 200 vehicles in three batches. The latest customer is Gabon, which received 12 vehicles for deployment with the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in the Central African Republic. The Véhicule Blindé Léger (VBL) 4x4 light scout vehicle has now been sold to 16 countries with almost 2,300 delivered. The French Army is the largest operator and has received 1,621 vehicles. The French Army is expected to upgrade a significant number of VBLs in the future, funding permitting. The Petit Véhicule Protégé (PVP) light protected vehicle, now called Dagger, was developed to meet French Army requirements and the service has received 1,163. Export sales have been achieved with countries including Chile, Romania, and Togo. The contract includes two different variants of the vehicle: light (Véhicules Légers des Forces Spéciales) and heavy (Véhicules Lourds des Forces Spéciales).