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Freedom in the World 2005

Civic Power and Electoral Politics

A Report from

Russia entered the ranks of Not Free countries Such a precipitous drop during that time frame in 2004 for the first time since the breakup of is relatively rare—in that same time period, only the Soviet Union, according to the findings of has seen comparable declines. Freedom in the World 20051, the survey of global political rights and published annually by Freedom House. This setback for The Freedom in the World survey examines the state of freedom as ex perienced by freedom represented the year’s most important individuals—evaluating a broad range of political trend. liberties in their political, civic, educational, cultural, ethnic, economic, and religious ’s steady drift toward authoritarian rule dimensions. Countries are evaluated based under President saw increased on a checklist of questions on political Kremlin control of national television content rights and civil liberties that are derived in and growing influence over radio and print large measure from the Universal media; the use and manipulation—bordering on Declaration of . outright control—of “alternative” political parties with leaders linked to the country’s Freedoms can be affected by state actions, security services; growing encroachments as well as by nonstate actors, including terrorist and other armed groups, whose against local government; and elections that violent methods can dramatically restrict were neither free nor fair. The extent of Russia’s essential freedoms. The survey rating long-term decline is suggested by the country’s generally reflects the interplay of a variety political rights rating of 3 and civil liberties of actors, both governmental and rating of 4 for the year 1997 (towards the end of nongovernmental. Thus, the survey the presidency of Putin’s predecessor, Boris examines the strength and vibrancy of civil Yeltsin), as compared to its rating of 6 for society, as well as any efforts of states to political rights and 5 for civil liberties today. restrict the civic sector. It factors in the courage and independence of media, as well as state efforts at censorship. It takes 1 The findings of Freedom in the World 2005 reflect global events from December 1, 2003 through November 30, into account actions by national 2004. The survey assigns numerical and category ratings governments, as well as the effectiveness to every country in the world, based on an expert and strength of an independent judiciary or assessment of performance according to a set of civic groups. indicators measuring the state of both political right and civil liberties. These indicators are drawn from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

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Freedom in the World 2005

Freedom in the World

Not Free 49 Countries (26%)

Partly Free Free 54 Countries 89 Countries (28%) (46%)

Freedom and World Population

2,387,300,000 2,819,080,000 in Not Free in Free Countries Countries (37%) (44%)

1,189,000,000 in Partly Free Countries (19%)

Global Trends in Freedom

Year Under Partly Free Not Free Review Free Countries Countries Countries

1974 41 (27%) 48 (32%) 63 (41%)

1984 53 (32%) 59 (35%) 55 (33%)

1994 76 (40%) 61 (32%) 54 (28%)

2004 89 (46%) 54 (28%) 49 (26%)

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Freedom in the World 2005

These diametrically opposite trends were In 2004, 44 percent of the globe’s population echoed in the growing differentiation between (2.819 billion) lived in Free countries and democratizing and increasingly authoritarian territories, 19 percent (1.189 billion) lived in states throughout the former USSR. While the Partly Free settings, while 37 percent (2.387 year saw important progress for freedom in billion) lived in Not Free polities—of these, and , the erosion of freedoms 1.3 billion (nearly three-fifths) lived in . in Russia was matched by ongoing repression As a result of shifts in population and changes in , , and , as in freedom status, the number of people living well as authoritarian consolidation in . in Free countries and territories increased by All this suggests that the post-Communist 39 million. The number of those living in East-West divide (which formerly separated Partly Free polities dropped by 136 million, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe while the number of those living in Not Free from those of the former Soviet Union) is countries climbed by 177 million, largely due gradually migrating eastward, as liberal values to Russia’s entry into this category. make gains in key post-Soviet states. A deeper analysis of Freedom House data As 2004 drew to a close, 89 countries suggests that Free, Partly Free, and Not Free worldwide were judged as Free (possessing a societies differ somewhat in comparative high degree of political rights and civil performance with regard to the four broad liberties in an environment of strong rule of categories of civil liberties examined by the law), one more than in 2003. The gain was survey. An assessment of these differences represented by progress in Antigua and helps to illuminate some of the underlying Barbuda, which entered the ranks of Free historical trajectories and political trends countries in the wake of the electoral defeat of within types of countries. These main corrupt Prime Minister Lester Bird, whose categories of civil liberties evaluated in the departure from government created significant survey are: Freedom of Expression and Belief, opportunities to promote democratic practices Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule and the rule of law. entered the ranks of Law, and Personal Autonomy and of Partly Free states as a result of greater Individual Rights. political freedom that developed through the establishment of a broad-based, transitional Overall, countries in all three types of government. This gain was offset by the societies show their weakest performance in decline in the status of Russia, which moved Associational and Organizational Rights and from Partly Free to Not Free. (Additionally, the Rule of Law, while Freedom of the territory of declined from Partly Expression and Belief rankings are highest. Free to Not Free in the wake of a significant However, Free and Partly Free societies rank increase in ethnic violence that led to the non- considerably higher than Not Free polities in participation of the Serbian minority in their median Associational and Organizational parliamentary elections.) As a result of these Rights ratings. This is hardly surprising, as it offsetting trends, the year ended with 54 suggests that authoritarian regimes place great countries rated as Partly Free, one fewer than emphasis on controlling and limiting the in the previous year. The number of Not Free ability of individuals to organize, associate, countries, where political rights are severely and engage in collective action, as this may constricted amid widespread civil liberties prove highly threatening to entrenched problems and a weak rule of law, stood at 49, authority and power. the same as in 2003.

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Freedom in the World 2005

WHAT IS AN ELECTORAL In 2004, 119 out of 192 countries (62 percent) ? qualified as electoral , two more than in 2003. The designation of electoral In determining whether a country is an democracy is based on whether a country’s electoral democracy, Freedom House last major national elections qualified under examines several key factors concerning how established international standards as “free its national leadership is chosen. To qualify as an electoral democracy, a state must have: and fair.” All electoral democracies are not liberal democracies (or Free countries), as 1) A competitive multi-party political states with democratically elected leaders may system; still have serious problems in terms of human 2) Universal adult for all rights, the rule of law, and corruption. Out of citizens;* 119 electoral democracies 89 (75 percent) are 3) Regularly contested elections Free, liberal democracies, while 30 (25 conducted in conditions of ballot percent) are rated Partly Free. While Russia secrecy, reasonable ballot security, and in the absence of massive voter exited from the ranks of electoral democracies fraud that yields results that are this year, new electoral democracies included unrepresentative of the public will; , , and Georgia. 4) Significant public access of major political parties to the electorate through the media and through REGIONAL TRENDS generally open political campaigning. At year’s end, the Middle East and North The ranking reflects a judgment about the last major national election/elections. In the Africa continued to lag behind other world case of presidential/parliamentary systems, regions when overall levels of freedom are both elections for the key offices must have measured. In this region, only 1 country, been free and fair on the basis of the above , is rated as Free, with 5 rated as Partly criteria; in parliamentary systems, the last Free and 12 rated as Not Free. It is important nationwide elections for the national to note that according to the survey’s legislature must have been free and fair. A longstanding methodology, the rating for country cannot be listed as an electoral Israel only reflects events that occur within its democracy if it reflects the ongoing and territorial boundaries. The state of freedom in overwhelming dominance of a single party the Israeli Occupied Territories (and in areas or movement over numerous national formally administered under the Palestinian elections. Such states are designated as dominant party states. Nor can a country be Authority) are rated separately, and both are an electoral democracy if significant rated Not Free given the significant human authority for national decisions resides in the rights abuses and restrictions that are placed hands of an unelected power (whether a on Palestinian residents. monarch or a foreign or international authority). A country is removed from the Comparable year-end figures for the Americas ranks of electoral democracies if its last were 24 Free, 9 Partly Free, and 2 ( and national election has failed to meet the Haiti) Not Free countries. In Central and criteria listed above, or if changes in law Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, significantly erode the public’s possibility for 12 countries were Free, 7 were Partly Free, electoral choice. and 8 were Not Free (all five of the countries *With exceptions for restrictions that states may of Central Asia are rated Not Free, with legitimately place on citizens as sanctions for criminal two—Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—among offenses. the most repressive states in the world.) In the Asia-Pacific region, the survey found 17

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Freedom in the World 2005 countries are Free, 11 Partly Free, and 11 Not While in , progress toward stability and Free. In Sub-Saharan Africa, there were 11 the creation of civic life was stalled by a Free, 21 Partly Free, and 16 Not Free states. brutally violent insurgency that increasingly And in Western Europe, 24 countries were made targets of innocent civilians, the survey rated Free; one country in the region, , reflected modest, but positive, trends in the was rated as Partly Free, although it made Arab countries of the Middle East and North measurable strides in civil liberties this year, Africa. Although no Arab country gave improving its score from 4 to 3. evidence of improvement sufficient to merit a status change, modest gains were registered in Beyond these broad regional trends, in , , , and . In Egypt, addition to the two countries (Antigua and the civil liberties score increased from 6 to 5 Barbuda and Liberia) that registered status because of greater civic activism, particularly improvements in 2004, 24 countries showed by women’s advocacy groups. Jordan’s civil numerical gains in freedom, although they liberties score increased from 5 to 4 because were insufficient to produce a change in the of improvements in women’s rights and press overall freedom designation: , freedom. In Morocco, the civil liberties rating Bosnia-Herzegovina, , improved from 5 to 4 due to the adoption of Comoros, , , Dominican one of the most liberal family codes in the Republic, Egypt, , Georgia, - Arab world. Qatar’s civil liberties rating Bissau, , Jordan, , , increased from 6 to 5 on the basis of Morocco, , , Qatar, , improvements in academic freedom. It is , , Turkey, and Ukraine. noteworthy that the gains in the Arab world were concentrated in the civil liberties area; Meanwhile, in addition to a decline in many of the changes stem from increased freedom status in Russia, ten other countries civic activism, which is factored in along with experienced a decline in their numerical governmental actions and policies in overall rankings that did not lead to a status change: evaluations. No country in the Arab Middle Armenia, Belarus, , Cote d’Ivoire, East has yet adopted significant liberalization Haiti, , , , , and of its political system. . Other majority-Muslim states registering gains Gains in Freedom included Malaysia, whose political rights rating improved as a result of more openly contested This year’s survey registered modest trends in national elections. Comoros saw increased improved civil liberties in the Middle East and political contestation in its national legislative North Africa specifically, and in Muslim elections. Niger saw both political rights and majority countries in general. While Muslim civil liberties improvements due to increased majority countries constitute 24 percent of the representation of minorities in government world’s states, they accounted for over a third and because of efforts to improve the status (9 of 25) of the states that made measurable of women. Turkey’s civil liberties strengthened progress this year, mainly as a result of due to the passage of another round of major improved civil liberties. This trend was reforms this year, including a complete matched by growing discourse in many overhaul of the penal code that makes it much Islamic states about the need for political more democratic. The Turkish government reform, as well as growing attention to the also increased civilian control of the military absence of fundamental rights for women in and started broadcasts in minority languages, many Islamic—and particularly Arab—societies. including an increase in Kurdish language broadcasting. As Turkey awaited a decision 5

Freedom in the World 2005 concerning its consideration for European through the consolidation of associational Union membership, the severest forms of rights and social equalities. torture decreased, and there were other improvements in human rights practices. In South Korea’s political rights improved after Afghanistan, reasonably free and fair the strengthening of the democratic process in presidential elections led to improved political free and fair elections, following last year’s rights despite obstacles to open contestation highly politicized presidential impeachment in regions where violence remained a process. Taiwan’s civil liberties registered significant factor. steady gains due to gradual improvements in the rule of law, including the consolidation of The gains are spread relatively evenly across judicial independence. In the territory of the main geographic regions. In Central and , despite the government of Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic, Estonia, China’s decision to rule out direct elections of Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia all made the full legislature and Chief Executive, civil modest improvements in freedom as a result liberties improved modestly due to of their incorporation of European Union unparalleled civic activism, which led to rights standards in the past year. These new incremental gains in associational rights and EU states now enjoy the survey’s highest the rule of law. numerical ranking for both political rights and civil liberties. At the same time, civic and As indicated above, positive developments political organizations in Bosnia-Herzegovina also took place in Ukraine (civil liberties) and exercised significant influence in successful in Georgia (political rights). In Georgia, municipal elections throughout the country in President Edward Shevardnadze was forced October 2004, revealing a deepening maturity from office after fraudulent legislative of civil society. elections in 2003 spurred nationwide protests. Mikhail Saakashvili was later elected president Improvements in Latin America included the in polling in January 2004 that international strengthening of the rule of law in Costa Rica observers asserted was honest and due to the indictment and detention of two professionally conducted. In Ukraine, a surge ex-presidents, Rafael Calderon and Miguel in civic activism and a major improvement in Angel Rodriguez, for corruption, coercion, press freedom emerged during that country’s and illegal enrichment. This progress was presidential campaign and the protest matched by improvements in free press movement that ignited in the wake of coverage and freedom of expression. In the widespread ballot fraud. , political rights improved due to improvements in the country's Declines in Freedom electoral climate that occurred during the election of President Leonel Fernandez. In addition to Russia’s entry into the ranks of Not Free states, three other ex-Soviet In Sub-Saharan Africa, gains included the republics suffered measurable declines in Central African Republic, whose political freedom. Belarus, which ranks as the least free rights improved as a result of increased country in Europe, saw a further deepening of political activism in preparation for harassment of opposition political forces. In democratic elections in 2005. Guinea-Bissau’s Armenia, the government responded violently political rights were strengthened by legislative to peaceful civic protests during the year elections that international observers amidst a broader pattern of increasingly pronounced as largely free and fair. Mauritius unresponsive and undemocratic governance. further increased its civil liberties score Lithuania’s political rights suffered a modest 6

Freedom in the World 2005 setback due to the determination by Nepal continues its downward trend with a parliament that impeached President Rolandas decline this year in civil liberties due to a Paksas had been under the influence of a violent Maoist insurgency, the government’s foreign security service and organized crime increasingly brutal response to that conflict, elements while president. During the special further deterioration in the rule of law, and election for his successor, a series of official increased pressures on economic activity. raids was also perpetrated against parties supporting Paksas’ replacement, Valdas Adamkus. Despite Paksas’ removal from THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN office, the fact of significant infiltration of FREEDOM AND TERRORISM high state offices by a foreign government raised worrying questions about the full Despite the increase in global terrorism, autonomy of Lithuania’s political leadership. freedom and democracy have shown a demonstrable resilience and progress—even if In Romania, political rights declined due to incremental and tentative—continues in many flaws in the first round of the country’s regions. Unfortunately, in some cases, the war presidential and parliamentary election on terrorism has been used by some states to process. One territory under international justify the reduction of personal and political supervision, Kosovo, registered a setback in freedoms by unscrupulous regimes that are its political rights and saw its status decline drifting further toward authoritarian rule. from Partly Free to Not Free due to a Serbian Among these is Russia, where President community boycott of parliamentary elections Vladimir Putin has cynically exploited the following an increase in ethnic violence. terrorist attacks in Beslan this September to dismantle local elected authority. Uzbekistan’s In Sub-Saharan Africa, Burkina Faso saw an authoritarian ruler, Islam Karimov, has increase in corruption and reports of illegal similarly used the war on terror as a arms trafficking, resulting in a decline in civil justification for repressing peaceful civic liberties. Cote d’Ivoire’s civil liberties movements while maintaining a ban on decreased due to the deterioration in security moderate opposition political parties. and civil freedoms resulting from an upsurge in hostilities emanating from an unresolved The threat of terrorism has put a strain on civil conflict. Malawi’s political rights declined established democracies as well. Democratic due to flawed political elections. Despite the leaders are naturally under pressure from their acquittal of opposition leader Morgan publics to respond effectively and vigorously Tsangvirai on trumped-up charges of treason to emerging terrorist threats. However, at and attempted assassination, Zimbabwe’s times, such responses may lead in directions political rights declined further due to which put a strain on a country’s traditional increased government repression of the patterns of tolerance and respect for civil political opposition. liberties. In the aftermath of the murder of Dutch film documentarian Theo Van Gogh, Although an increasingly authoritarian there was a wave of arson attacks against both President Jean-Bertrand Aristede left the Christian and Muslim houses of worship. country in 2004, overall Haiti’s political rights These events contributed to heightened fears declined in the absence of democratically- of a wider network of potential terrorists in derived sovereign authority and the imposition of the country’s growing Muslim immigrant an ineffective interim government after the community. In , concern about the deployment of an international security force. spread of Muslim fundamentalism has led to restrictions on the display of religious symbols 7

Freedom in the World 2005 in state schools. While not threatening the our research finds that the targeting of liberal broadly based and well-secured rights and democratic societies has increased liberties of these EU member states, these dramatically after September 11, 2001. In the trends nevertheless are capable of putting at 32 months before the 9/11 attacks, sixteen risk some civil liberties and suggest that even percent of all terrorist fatalities occurred in well-established democracies must be vigilant the democratic world. Post-9/11, this against encroachments on their own freedoms. proportion rose to 27 percent, and the number of terrorist casualties occurring in Similarly, in the , there has been democracies rose from 9.3 to 37.8 per month, a thoroughgoing debate about the civil an increase of over four hundred percent. liberties implications of the USA PATRIOT Act, some provisions of which are believed by In part, of course, this can be explained as civil liberties and some human rights groups radical Islamist rage over the attacks by US- to pose a potential threat to freedom of led coalitions against Afghanistan’s Taliban expression, freedom of religion, and the and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. But this pattern spread of government surveillance capability. also reflects a calculus by terrorists that at root In addition, serious questions have been even powerful democracies are weak and raised by prisoner abuse in Abu Ghraib prison susceptible to terrorist pressure. Revolutionary in Iraq and in Afghanistan, and by the Islamist terrorists are specifically targeting the detention without judicial oversight of democratic world. As a result, including the accused terrorists in Guantanamo. During victims of September 11th, 62 percent of all 2004, American courts issued several casualties (deaths and injuries) caused decisions that chipped away at the PATRIOT throughout the world since 1999 by radical Act and challenged the government’s claim to Islamist terrorists have occurred in liberal, exclusive authority over terrorism detainees. democratic societies (countries rated Free by Freedom House). Such radicals are No aspect of freedom has been the subject of responsible for 7 out of every 8 deaths from greater commentary than its relationship to terrorism that have occurred in the the global threat presented by terrorist democratic world in the last five years, and for movements. This year, studies by Harvard 32 percent of all terrorist attacks on open, Professor Alberto Abadie and Professor John democratic societies. Even when the single- Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago day death toll from September 11th is not found statistically significant correlations included, revolutionary Islamist terror is still between levels of freedom and terrorism, responsible for over 55 percent of the reinforcing similar studies by Alan Krueger of terrorist fatalities that have occurred in the Princeton. democratic world in the last five years.

Freedom House’s own research into the Freedom House’s findings—which will be relationship between democracy and terrorism released in a detailed report in 2005— bears out these academic conclusions. In an reinforce Krueger and Mearsheimer’s findings ongoing research initiative, Freedom House about the correlations between terror and has correlated data from all recorded terrorist acts from the period 1999-2003 with data from the Freedom in the World survey.2 First, 1999 through December 31, 2003. The three freedom status changes in 2004 do not affect the statistical conclusions of the research. (Chechnya, which has been 2 The Freedom in the World data used here do not include both a target of and a source for terrorists, is rated the 2004 scores detailed in this essay. The research separately from Russia, and has been rated Not Free encompasses terrorist acts which took place January 1, throughout the five-year period.) 8

Freedom in the World 2005 levels of freedom. Between 1999 and 2003, 70 urgent the priority of bringing democracy and percent of all deaths from terrorism were human rights reforms to Central Asia and the caused by terrorists and terrorist groups Arab world. Such an agenda of promoting originating in Not Free societies, while only 8 democracy and reform requires a long-term percent of all fatalities were generated by approach and a long-term commitment; a terrorists and terror movements with origins military and intelligence driven war on terror in Free societies. Moreover, terrorists from is not enough. Even if the war on terror dictatorial and repressive societies that scores significant intelligence, security, and brutalize their inhabitants are themselves military achievements, long-term success can significantly more brutal than terrorists born be best secured if it is accompanied by and acculturated in democratic societies. Over democratic reform and liberalization of the the last five years, terrorists who came from world’s most repressive and politically closed societies that are rated Not Free by Freedom regimes. House and in which most basic rights are denied, on average, killed some 11 and injured This effort to promote democratic change will 15 people per attack,3 whereas those be most effective if it is waged by democrats perpetrated by organizations and individuals from closed societies themselves, and from Free societies on average claimed 2 lives augmented by international cooperation that and injured 7. Even if we exclude 9/11’s engages moderate and reformist governments fatalities, terrorists from closed societies are from majority-Muslim states. A corollary of over twice as lethal as their counterparts from this approach should include efforts to engage less repressive states. All terrorism is morally respected religious leaders who oppose the reprehensible and odious, but this difference cynical manipulation of religious faith on in degree must be better understood. behalf of extremist political agendas. Finally, the U.S. and other established democracies No society and no political system can must ensure that they maintain the highest guarantee that it will not produce terrorists, standards of conduct in their own actions to just as no society can guarantee that it will not combat the scourge of terrorism. generate violent criminals. Still, as the data in this study indicate, stable democracies generate fewer and less lethal terrorists and THE FATE OF ILLIBERAL terrorist movements than tyrannies. In order DEMOCRACIES: DO ELECTIONS to successfully wage a war of ideas against REALLY NOT MATTER? such a lethal enemy, the human benefits of greater political, civil, and economic freedom While no one doubts the correlation between must be consistently encouraged. This makes democratic political processes and broad-based freedoms, in recent years, the relationship between elections and freedom has been 3 While several of the 9/11 terrorists, including subjected to significant criticism. Fareed Mohammed Atta, lived for years in open societies, they Zakaria, Thomas Carothers, Larry Diamond all had grown up in repressive and closed societies. Despite living abroad in the environment of and others have warned about the rise of democracy, they were integrated into insular ethno- “illiberal democracies” in which elections are religious environments and terror networks in which held but leaders remain unaccountable and exiles from closed societies predominated. This insular engage in actions that undermine political cultural environment –which is widespread in many rights and civil liberties. liberal Western societies— unquestionably contributed to their radicalization and contributed to their pitiless commitment to the mass murder of innocents. Recently—amid rising domestic pressures and international standards—one-party states and 9

Freedom in the World 2005 other monolithic authoritarian systems have which possess to one degree or another a collapsed and been replaced by multiparty political party opposition that participates in systems. In the last fifteen years alone, the electoral processes, however constrained or number of competitive electoral democracies fraudulent. has risen from 69 out of 167 (41 percent) to 119 out of 192 (62 percent). This process In each of these pseudo-democracies, dominant means that each year, on average, 3.3 parties maintain control in semi-authoritarian additional states have adopted minimal systems that retain the external trappings of standards of free and fair elections. As noted democracy while real political power remains before, however, only 89 of these 119 in the hands of an unchallenged, entrenched electoral democracies are Free, while over a elite. Scholars have suggested that these quarter lag behind in terms of their civil trends presage a new stable polity, not a mid- liberties. point in the evolution toward authentic democracy. Many of these new multiparty systems have become open and competitive democracies, Freedom House data continue to show that a often with significant gains for the rule of law. considerable proportion of electoral democracies But in other post-transition systems, truly (25 percent this year) are rated Partly Free. competitive multiparty elections have often Fareed Zakaria, in an influential essay, has been supplanted by dominant party states pointed to this discrepancy in Freedom House which employ a wide array of authoritarian data to suggest that, in the absence of strong techniques. While there were some examples constitutional and legal frameworks, elections of dominant party states in the post-World often empower illiberal majorities that War II era (including under the seven- persecute minority groups. Zakaria dubbed decade rule of the Institutional Revolutionary this phenomenon . Party (PRI), the under Marcos, under Suharto, and under Some political scientists also have suggested Fujimori), a large number arose in the that this discrepancy is the result of an aftermath of the collapse of one-party overemphasis on the part of donors on the Marxist-Leninist systems. The development of formality of elections and have urged a greater dominating institutions in these states has emphasis on the rule of law, independent been so widespread that some scholars have media, and civil society. In fact, donor pointed to the rise of pseudo-democracies and strategies have generally incorporated this “hybrid states,” which contain the false more multi-dimensional approach. trappings of democratic processes and opposition political parties. These “dominant With the people power movements this year party” states use a variety of means to in Ukraine, in Georgia (2003), and in preserve a façade of electoral contestation (2000) fresh in our memories, there is good while maintaining unchallenged political reason to reexamine and reevaluate the thesis power, including the financial resources of that the electoral process is merely a formality. crony-capitalist oligarchic elites to back party As each of these pivotal transitions indicates, campaigns; pro-government media dominance; an important factor in leading to political use of state administrative resources in openings has been the evidence of growing campaigns; and political harassment of civic ferment generated by electoral processes independent media and opposition groups. themselves. Indeed, it can be said that the Among such states, scholars have pointed to very fact of voter fraud and electoral Armenia, , Belarus, , manipulation has proven a catalyst for , Russia, and Ukraine—all of 10

Freedom in the World 2005 massive civic opposition that has led to a free democratic regimes—often become a source and fair electoral result. of civic anger and mobilization.

To the Ukrainian, Georgian, and Serbian Fifth, because pseudo-democracies adopt examples of civic mobilizations revolving their political model to be acceptable to the around electoral processes, we can add the growing democratic world, they are often 1986 people power revolution in the open to external donor activity, cross-border Philippines and civic activism in in 1988 cooperation among civic groups, and around a plebiscite that helped force General extensive external election monitoring. Augusto Pinochet from office and launched a democratic transition. Civic protests around As importantly, because the formal legal basis tainted elections in Mexico in 1988 and long- for multiparty systems and civic and media term civic and political mobilization paved the pluralism is already in place, changes in such way to a more open and contested process, part-democratic/part-authoritarian hybrid resulting 12 years later in the defeat of the settings usually occur within constitutional ruling party’s candidate. In Slovakia, bounds. Indeed, many non-violent “people widespread civic mobilization around power revolutions” do not topple existing elections in 1998 created a broad-based left- constitutional systems, but instead make it right coalition that defeated the party of the possible for state and civic institutions to authoritarian Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar begin functioning according to the spirit and and ushered in more liberal rule. letter of the basic law.

There are several important reasons why electoral processes in pseudo-democracies and FOREIGN AID: CREATING illiberal democracies have a catalytic effect on INCENTIVES FOR LIBERALIZATION more deeply rooted democratic change. In March 2002, President George W. Bush First, elections concentrate civic energy and announced the Millennium Challenge activity around a culminating focal point—the Account, a new foreign aid initiative that date of the election. This allows opposition would reward developing countries that “rule parties and movements to mobilize their justly.” A set of criteria was crafted that resources for deployment in a concentrated included absence of corruption, support for period of political contestation. market liberalization, greater investment in health and education, and respect for political Second, despite state media dominance in rights and civil liberties as reflected in many pseudo-democracies, some alternative Freedom House’s ratings. media—in the form of the Internet, local radio, local cable television, and independent The new paradigm for foreign aid was put newspapers—manage to emerge in the cracks into practice this year and it is useful to of the edifice of state control. evaluate its performance to date.

Third, if there is some limited space for On balance, the countries selected4 and electoral contestation, there is equally some rewarded with $1 billion in cumulative new space for freedom of assembly and associational foreign aid include seven that are rated Free rights that enable opposition civic life.

4 The MCA aid will be distributed in 2005, and the Fourth, corruption and crony — countries listed are either eligible or on the threshold frequent characteristics of these less-than-fully for 2005 aid. 11

Freedom in the World 2005 and nine that are rated Partly Free. Seven of CONCLUSIONS: the nine Partly Free states had combined THE LESSONS OF 2004 Freedom House scores of 3.5 or above and were thus some of the better performing The year brought with it many important Partly Free countries. Only two states that lessons and reminders of relevance to received support under the program, Armenia policymakers, civic activists, and donors. and Morocco, were ranked at the lower end of Partly Free states. First, people power—i.e., non-violent civic protest—was yet again revealed to be a potent By contrast, the cohort that qualified for force for political change. It was a reminder inclusion but was not given MCA enhanced that support for non-partisan civic life foreign aid included three Free and nine Partly through aid and training for membership Free countries, of which six had lower-end organizations, labor unions, student and youth Partly Free ratings. While Freedom House is groups, election monitoring organizations, appreciative of the Millennium Challenge rights groups, and think tanks focused on the Corporation Board using its discretion not to development of reform agenda deserve reward a number of potentially eligible poor significant donor investment. performers—including , and —it urges the Board to reexamine Second, international democratic solidarity by the criteria to ensure that the rule of law the world’s economically powerful democracies criteria adequately consider issues of due was shown to be a positive force for change. process and judicial independence. From US-EU joint action to press Ukraine’s authorities to ensure free and fair elections, to On balance, the first year’s decisions by the the improvements in the freedom rankings of Millennium Challenge Corporation, while not Turkey and Central and East European states, fully according with levels of freedom as occasioned by their efforts to integrate into reflected in Freedom House’s ranking, the European Union, coalitions of democracies nevertheless incorporated enough of these helped advance freedom. factors to ensure that the MCA foreign aid initiative does not reward those developing Third, positive incentives to reward developing countries that practice widespread political countries taking the democratic path should suppression or massively violate most be strengthened and enhanced with the fundamental rights. However, Freedom participation of other prosperous democracies, House urges the Administration to ensure that particularly the member states of the EU and policy dialogue and assistance continues to be . provided to participating countries, as many, especially the poorer performing qualifiers, These three factors, if employed cohesively have significant deficits in respect for political and comprehensively, may help propel further rights and civil liberties. liberalization in states formerly thought stuck in a semi-authoritarian no man’s land. They will also offer measured hope to democracy activists in closed societies.

This essay was written by Adrian Karatnycky, Counselor and Senior Scholar at Freedom House. It reflects trends and analyses of the entire Freedom House survey team, including Jennifer Windsor, Arch Puddington, Aili Piano, Mark Rosenberg and Amy Phillips.

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Freedom in the World 2005

THE SURVEY OF FREEDOM

Freedom in the World is an institutional effort by Freedom House to monitor the progress and decline of political rights and civil liberties in 192 nations and in 14 major related and disputed territories. These year-end reviews of freedom began in the 1950s, when they were called the Balance Sheet of Freedom. In 1972, Freedom House launched a new, more comprehensive annual assessment called Freedom in the World, which assigned countries political rights and civil liberties ratings and categorized them as Free, Partly Free, or Not Free. This program has been issued in a more developed context as a yearbook since 1978. Entitled Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties, the 2005 yearbook, which includes lengthy analyses of each country and territory, will be available from Freedom House in June 2005.

The survey assesses a country's freedom by examining its record in two areas: political rights and civil liberties. A country grants its citizens political rights when it permits them to form political parties that represent a significant range of voter choice and whose leaders can openly compete for and be elected to positions of power in government. A country upholds its citizens' civil liberties when it respects and protects their religious, ethnic, economic, linguistic, and other rights, including gender and family rights, personal freedoms, and freedoms of the press, belief, and association. The survey rates each country on a seven- point scale for both political rights and civil liberties (1 representing the most free and 7 the least free) and then divides the world into three broad categories: "Free" (countries whose ratings average 1.0-2.5); "Partly Free" (countries whose ratings average 3.0-5.0); and "Not Free" (countries whose ratings average 5.5- 7.0).

The ratings are not only assessments of the conduct of governments, but are intended to reflect the reality of daily life. Thus, a country with a benign government facing violent forces (for example, terrorist movements or insurgencies) hostile to an open society will be graded on the basis of the on-the-ground conditions that determine whether the population is able to exercise its freedoms. The survey enables scholars and policy makers both to assess the direction of global change annually and to examine trends in freedom over time and on a comparative basis across regions with different political and economic systems.

The survey project is a yearlong effort produced by our regional experts, consultants, and human rights specialists. The survey derives its information from a wide range of sources. Most valued of these are the many human rights activists, journalists, editors, and political figures around the world who keep us informed of the human rights situation in their countries.

The survey team is grateful for the advice and input of our academic advisors, consisting of Adotei Akwei, Amnesty International; Jon Alterman, Center for Strategic and International Studies; David Becker, Dartmouth College; Charles Gati, Johns Hopkins University; Thomas Lansner, Columbia University; Peter Lewis, American University; Thomas Melia, Georgetown University; Andrew Moravcsik, Princeton University; Alexander Motyl, Rutgers University; Andrew Nathan, Columbia University; Philip Oldenburg, Columbia University; Arturo Valenzuela, Georgetown University; and Bridget Welsh, Johns Hopkins University.

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Freedom in the World 2005

Throughout the year, Freedom House personnel regularly conduct fact-finding missions to gain more in-depth knowledge of the political transformations affecting our world. During these weeks-to-month-long investigations, we make every effort to meet a cross-section of political parties and associations, human rights monitors, religious figures, representative of the private sector and trade union movement, academics, and journalists. This year's survey team includes Aili Piano and Arch Puddington, managing editors of the survey, Martin Edwin Andersen, Anjalika Bardalai, Gordon Bardos, Gary Gambill, Thomas Gold, Michael Gold-Biss, Michael Goldfarb, Lane Greene, Adrian Karatnycky, Karin Deutsch Karlekar, Brian Katulis, Judith Matloff, Edward McMahon, Ann Marie Murphy, Amy Phillips, Sarah Repucci, Mark Rosenberg, Nejla Sammakia, Cindy Shiner, Yves Sorokobi, Christopher Walker, Anny Wong.

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Freedom in the World 2005

Table of Independent Countries Comparative Measures of Freedom

Country PR CL Freedom Rating Afghanistan 55 6 Not Free 3 3 Partly Free 6 5 Not Free 1 1 Free 6 5 Not Free Antigua and Barbuda 25 2 Free 2 2 Free Armenia 56 4 Partly Free 1 1 Free 1 1 Free Azerbaijan 6 5 Not Free Bahamas 1 1 Free 5 5 Partly Free 4 4 Partly Free 1 1 Free Belarus 76 6 Not Free 1 1 Free 1 2 Free 2 2 Free Bhutan 6 5 Not Free 3 3 Partly Free Bosnia-Herzegovina 4 35 Partly Free 2 2 Free 2 3 Free 6 5 Not Free 1 2 Free Burkina Faso 56 4 Partly Free Burma 7 7 Not Free 5 5 Partly Free 6 5 Not Free 6 6 Not Free 1 1 Free 1 1 Free Central African Republic 65 5 Not Free 6 5 Not Free Chile 1 1 Free China 7 6 Not Free 4 4 Partly Free Comoros 45 4 Partly Free Congo (Brazzaville) 5 4 Partly Free Congo (Kinshasa) 6 6 Not Free

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Freedom in the World 2005

Costa Rica 1 15 Free Cote d’Ivoire 6 66 Not Free 2 2 Free Cuba 7 7 Not Free (G) 1 1 Free Czech Republic 1 15 Free 1 1 Free 5 5 Partly Free 1 1 Free Dominican Republic 25 2 Free 3 3 Partly Free 3 3 Partly Free Egypt 6 55 Not Free 2 3 Free 7 6 Not Free 7 6 Not Free Estonia 1 15 Free 5 5 Partly Free 4 3 Partly Free 1 1 Free France 1 1 Free 5 4 Partly Free 4 4 Partly Free Georgia 35 4 Partly Free 1 1 Free 2 2 Free 1 2 Free 1 2 Free 4 4 Partly Free Guinea 6 5 Not Free Guinea-Bissau 45 4 Partly Free 2 2 Free Haiti 76 6 Not Free 3 3 Partly Free Hungary 1 15 Free 1 1 Free 2 3 Free Indonesia 3 4 Partly Free 6 6 Not Free Iraq 7 5 Not Free Ireland 1 1 Free Israel 1 3 Free 1 1 Free 2 3 Free Japan 1 2 Free

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Freedom in the World 2005

Jordan 5 45 Partly Free Kazakhstan 6 5 Not Free 3 3 Partly Free 1 1 Free 4 5 Partly Free Kyrgyzstan 6 5 Not Free 7 6 Not Free 1 2 Free 6 5 Not Free 2 3 Free Liberia 55 45 Partly Free 7 7 Not Free 1 1 Free Lithuania 26 2 Free 1 1 Free Macedonia 3 3 Partly Free 3 3 Partly Free Malawi 46 4 Partly Free Malaysia 45 4 Partly Free 6 5 Not Free 2 2 Free 1 1 Free 1 1 Free Mauritania 6 5 Not Free Mauritius 1 15 Free Mexico 2 2 Free Micronesia 1 1 Free 3 4 Partly Free 2 1 Free 2 2 Free Morocco 5 45 Partly Free 3 4 Partly Free 2 3 Free 1 1 Free Nepal 5 56 Partly Free 1 1 Free 1 1 Free 3 3 Partly Free Niger 35 35 Partly Free 4 4 Partly Free 7 7 Not Free 1 1 Free 6 5 Not Free 6 5 Not Free 1 1 Free

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Freedom in the World 2005

Panama 1 2 Free 3 3 Partly Free 3 3 Partly Free Peru 2 3 Free Philippines 2 3 Free Poland 1 15 Free 1 1 Free Qatar 6 55 Not Free Romania 36 2 Free Russia 66 5 Not Free 6 5 Not Free 1 2 Free 1 2 Free Saint Vincent and Grenadines 2 1 Free 2 2 Free 1 1 Free Sao Tome and Principe 2 2 Free 7 7 Not Free 2 3 Free Serbia and 3 2 Free 3 3 Partly Free Sierra Leon 4 3 Partly Free 5 4 Partly Free Slovakia 1 15 Free 1 1 Free 3 3 Partly Free 6 7 Not Free 1 2 Free South Korea 15 2 Free 1 1 Free 3 3 Partly Free 7 7 Not Free 1 2 Free Swaziland 7 5 Not Free 1 1 Free 1 1 Free 7 7 Not Free Taiwan 2 15 Free 6 5 Not Free 4 3 Partly Free 2 3 Free 6 5 Not Free 5 3 Partly Free 3 3 Partly Free 6 5 Not Free

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Freedom in the World 2005

Turkey 3 35 Partly Free Turkmenistan 7 7 Not Free 1 1 Free 5 4 Partly Free Ukraine 4 35 Partly Free 6 6 Not Free 1 1 Free United States 1 1 Free 1 1 Free Uzbekistan 7 6 Not Free 2 2 Free 3 4 Partly Free Vietnam 7 6 Not Free 5 5 Partly Free 4 4 Partly Free Zimbabwe 76 6 Not Free

PR and CL stand for Political Rights and Civil Liberties, respectively; 1 represents the most free and 7 the least free rating.

5 6 up or down indicates a change in Political Rights or Civil Liberties since the last survey

The freedom ratings reflect an overall judgment based on survey results.

NOTE: The ratings in this table reflect global events from December 1, 2003, through November 30, 2004.

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Freedom in the World 2005

Table of Related Territories – Comparative Measures of Freedom

Country and Territory PR CL Freedom Rating China Hong Kong 5 2 5 Partly Free United States 1 2 Free

Table of Disputed Territories – Comparative Measures of Freedom

Country and Territory PR CL Freedom Rating Armenia/Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh 5 5 Partly Free China 7 7 Not Free Cyprus Northern (Turkish) Cyprus 2 2 Free Georgia 6 5 Not Free India Kashmir 5 5 Partly Free Israel Israeli-Occupied Territories 6 6 Not Free Palestinian Authority- 5 6 Not Free Administered Territories Moldova 6 6 Not Free Morocco 7 6 Not Free Pakistan Kashmir 7 5 Not Free Russia Chechnya 7 7 Not Free Serbia and Montenegro Kosovo 6 6 5 Not Free

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Freedom in the World 2005

Combined Average Ratings – Independent Countries

FREE 1.5 PARTLY 4.5 6.0 Belize FREE Armenia Cameroon 1.0 Bulgaria Burkina Faso Congo Greece Congo (Kinshasa) Andorra Grenada 3.0 (Brazzaville) Cote d’Ivoire Australia Japan Albania Gabon Iran Austria Latvia Bolivia Jordan Iraq Bahamas Monaco East Timor Kuwait Swaziland Barbados Ecuador Liberia United Arab Belgium St. Kitts and Honduras Morocco Emirates Canada Nevis Kenya Singapore Cape Verde St. Lucia Macedonia Uganda Chile 6.5 St. Vincent and Madagascar Costa Rica Belarus Grenadines Nicaragua Cyprus 5.0 China South Africa Niger Czech Republic Bahrain Equatorial South Korea Papua New Denmark Burundi Guinea Suriname Guinea Dominica Djibouti Eritrea Taiwan Paraguay Estonia Ethiopia Haiti Seychelles Nepal Laos Finland Solomon Yemen Somalia France 2.0 Islands Germany Antigua and Uzbekistan Sri Lanka Vietnam Hungary Barbuda Trinidad and Iceland Argentina Zimbabwe Tobago NOT Ireland Benin Turkey Botswana FREE 7.0 Italy Kiribati Croatia Burma Liechtenstein Dominican 3.5 Cuba Bosnia- 5.5 Luxembourg Republic Afghanistan Libya Malta Ghana Herzegovina North Korea Fiji Algeria Marshall Islands Guyana Angola Saudi Arabia Mauritius Israel Georgia Sudan Indonesia Azerbaijan Micronesia Lithuania Bhutan Syria Nauru Mali Moldova Turkmenistan Mozambique Brunei Netherlands Mexico Cambodia New Zealand Mongolia Tanzania Central African Norway Samoa Republic Palau Sao Tome and Ukraine Venezuela Chad Poland Principe Egypt Portugal Vanuatu Guinea San Marino 4.0 Kazakhstan Slovakia 2.5 Bangladesh Kyrgyzstan Slovenia Brazil Colombia Lebanon Spain El Salvador Comoros Maldives Sweden India The Gambia Mauritania Switzerland Jamaica Guatemala Oman Tuvalu Lesotho Guinea-Bissau Pakistan United Namibia Malawi Qatar Kingdom Peru Malaysia Russia United States Philippines Nigeria Rwanda Uruguay Romania Tonga Tajikistan Senegal Zambia Togo Serbia and Tunisia Montenegro Thailand 21