NO. 30 APRIL 2021 Introduction

India: An Ambivalent Partner for the West Growing Commonalities, Growing Differences Christian Wagner and Jana Lemke

The relationship between India and Western countries is increasingly characterised by a paradox. On the one hand, the country’s rise has caused both sides to increasingly share geostrategic interests, for example in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, dif- ferences are growing as New Delhi’s domestic policy moves further and further from Western ideals – this applies to economic policy as well as the state of Indian democ- racy. This change is affecting India’s relations with Germany and Europe as the pro- motion of Indian industry and the restriction of democratic rights also affect Euro- pean companies and civil society organisations respectively. The narrative of a part- nership with India based on shared values, which has been cultivated for decades in Europe and the USA, will shift more towards coinciding strategic interests and less towards common democratic values.

India’s rise since the 1990s has made it an with Western states in order to advance the important partner for Western countries. It country’s path towards economic and mili- boasts a growing number of strategic part- tary modernisation. nerships and economic successes, carries But despite this new geostrategic com- weight in institutions of global governance mon ground, the West’s relations with and participates in the Quadrilateral Secu- India are likely to become more difficult, rity Dialogue (the Quad) – all of which not easier. The reasons for this are found in underscore India’s newfound geostrategic various domestic political developments in importance. The Biden administration has the world’s largest democracy. First, India reiterated that the country is a central pillar has seen the dismantling of democratic of the USA’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The Euro- rights since Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya pean Union has announced a connectivity Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2014. partnership with India that will put the For example, Freedom House’s Freedom in already good relations between the two on the World 2021 report rated Indian democ- an even broader footing. The German gov- racy as “partly free” for the first time since ernment’s Indo-Pacific guidelines empha- 1997/ 1998, while the Swedish V-Dem Insti- sise cooperation with “value partners” in tute recently declared the country an “elec- the region, which includes India. New toral autocracy”. Secondly, New Delhi is Delhi, for its part, needs bilateral exchange pursuing a new economic policy of self-

reliance, thereby promoting national in- Constitution” and “One Language”. Until dustry. now, the principle of “Unity in Diversity” was considered one of the central founda- tions of the Indian constitution. The ideas India’s Democracy: of Hindutva, on the other hand, tend to Unity over Diversity? subscribe to a principle that prioritizes “Unity over Diversity”. The Modi government was endorsed by the The shift towards an “illiberal India” electorate for its vision of a new India. In (Sumit Ganguly) is evident in several ways. its 2019 re-election, it won 303 seats (37 per First, criticism of the government is seen cent) in the parliament, an even larger ab- as increasingly undesirable. Critical intel- solute majority than it achieved with its lectuals and media as well as national and 2014 election victory when it won 282 seats international civil society organisations (31 per cent). Of its three key promises put increasingly face bureaucratic controls or forth during the 2014 election campaign, prosecution. For example, since 2014, the the BJP has so far implemented two. First, number of indictments for activities that the special rights for the state of Jammu “endanger the state” has risen significantly. and Kashmir were abolished; it was con- Furthermore, in 2018 and 2019, India’s verted into two union territories in August internet was shut down more often than in 2019. Second, an October 2019 Supreme any other democracy. The accompanying Court verdict allowed the construction of a restrictions on fundamental rights are re- Ram temple in the northern Indian state of flected in negative ratings in the 2020 World Ayodhya – a project that attracted contro- Press Freedom Index and the Human Freedom versy for decades because a mosque once Index: 2020, among others (see Figure 1). stood on the site. The third promise (yet to More recently, in summer 2020, it was be fulfilled) is the introduction of a uniform revealed that the government used the civil code, which would presumably curtail Coronavirus pandemic as an excuse to craft the rights of religious minorities. a new media strategy targeting unpopular The BJP’s ideological basis for the re- reporting. In March 2021, the government orientation of the country is rooted in the passed new regulations for internet corpo- idea that India is first and foremost a Hindu rations, thereby granting it further oppor- state. Hindu nationalism is based on the tunities to silence critical media. notion of Hinduness (Hindutva), the basic Second, by shifting personnel, the gov- foundations of which were formulated in ernment has ensured that it gains more the 1920s and 1930s by V. D. Savarkar and influence in institutions previously con- long-standing leader of the National Volun- sidered independent, including the Central teer Corps (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, Bank and the National Election Commis- RSS) M. S. Golwalkar. As an ideology, Hin- sion. Third, the Supreme Court is no longer dutva is modelled along the lines of ethnic willing to review contentious government nationalism of 19th and 20th century decisions in a timely manner, including fed- Europe. Its aim is to create a Hindu nation eral disputes. This was the case in August (Hindu Rashtra) based on a common lan- 2019 with the partition and conversion of guage, history, culture, geography and an- the singular state of Jammu and Kashmir cestry. Initially, this strain of thought was into two union territories administered by also associated with the rejection of outside New Delhi, an action that was executed influences, in that the conquest of India by without the consent of the elected state gov- Muslims and later by the British was seen ernment. In autumn 2020, the national par- as the cause of the supposed decline of Hin- liament also passed far-reaching agricultur- dus. Sentiments of the unity of the Hindu al reforms even though this sector is the nation find expression today in slogans responsibility of the states according to the and demands such as “One Nation”, “One constitution. Furthermore, in spring 2021,

SWP Comment 30 April 2021

2 Figure 1

The devolution of democracy-relevant indices for India from 2014 to 2020

Democracy Index 2014 2020

Economist Democracy Index Defective democracy Defective democracy Rank 27 of 167 Rank 53 of 167 Freedom House Index Free Partly free 78 points 67 points (2021) Freedom House Index, Partly free Partly free Freedom on the Net 58 points 51 points University of Würzburg, Defective democracy Defective democracy Democracy Matrix 0,79 points 0.62 points (2019) Reporters without Borders, Difficult situation Difficult situation World Press Freedom Index Rank 140 of 180 Rank 142 of 180 Bertelsmann Defective democracy Defective democracy Transformation Index 7.8 points (2013–15) 7.3 points (2017–19) Legatum Prosperity Index, Rank 78 of 142 Rank 106 of 167 Personal Freedom V-Dem: Deliberative Democracy Index 0.56 points 0.3 points (2019) 1 = high; 0 = low CATO Institute, Rank 87 of 159 Rank 111 of 162 (2018) Human Freedom Index

Sources: The Economist, Democracy Index 2020; Democracy Index 2014; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2020; Freedom in the World 2015; Freedom on the Net 2020; Freedom on the Net 2014; University of Würzburg, Matrix Repre- sentation 2014; Reporters without Borders, India; World Press Freedom Index 2014; Bertelsmann Foundation, Atlas BTI, India Overall Results; Legatum Institute, The Legatum Prosperity Index, Downloads; V-Dem Institute, Country Graph. the national government curtailed the tic product to 25 per cent in order to make powers of the elected government of the it globally competitive. Instead, its share New Delhi National Capital Territory. actually declined from 15.1 per cent to 14.8 per cent between 2014 and 2018. Further- more, economic growth fell to below 5 per India’s Economy: Independence cent even before the Coronavirus crisis, over World Market Integration? moving the country further away from the government’s 7 per cent target. Modi’s assumption of office in 2014 was In a speech to the nation on 12 May 2020, accompanied by high hopes that India Prime Minister Modi announced his new would continue its economic reforms and concept of economic self-reliance (Atmanir- integrate further into the global market. bhar Bharat). Its historic roots lie in the Indeed, India improved its position in the Swadeshi movement, which advocated the Ease of Doing Business Index from 140th to preferential use of domestically produced 63rd place between 2014 and 2019. How- goods and whose ideas are also reflected ever, the government did not succeed in in the writings of the RSS. Modi thus made achieving its aim of increasing the manu- a U-turn in economic policy, even though facturing sector’s share of the gross domes- this had already been foreshadowed by

SWP Comment 30 April 2021

3 various decisions in recent years. The policy will further deepen cooperation. The tech- of self-reliance is in line with the “Make in nology transfer afforded by German and India” programme that was introduced in European companies to India will make an 2014, which aims to increase exports and important contribution to the country’s reduce imports. While Modi denounced economic recovery in the aftermath of the growing global protectionism at the World Coronavirus pandemic. Economic Forum in 2018, his government But Modi’s new economic policy of self- began raising tariffs again itself. In autumn reliance will likely make it more difficult in 2019, New Delhi withdrew from the Regional the long term for medium-sized companies Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in particular to enter the Indian market. © Stiftung Wissenschaft at the last minute on the grounds that its This is compounded by repeated criticisms und Politik, 2021 participation in the free trade project would from Washington, Brussels and Berlin of All rights reserved further widen its chronic trade deficit with the Indian government’s dismantling of China. Indeed, during its border conflict democratic rights, restriction of freedoms This Comment reflects with China in summer 2020, India’s govern- of expression and the press, and persecu- the author’s views. ment tightened its restrictions against Chi- tion of religious minorities. India’s foreign The online version of nese companies. minister has already signalled that his coun- this publication contains Albeit under different political condi- try will pay less attention to such Western functioning links to other tions, India had already pursued a course concerns in future. Instead, his ministry is SWP texts and other relevant of import substitution starting in the 1950s. already considering creating its own indices sources. At that time, the country was oriented to- so that the successes of Indian democracy SWP Comments are subject wards socialist economic models and relied can be better presented internationally. It to internal peer review, fact- on a large state sector. Ultimately, by the cannot be assumed that international criti- checking and copy-editing. time it ended in 1991, this policy only cism will have any significant influence on For further information on spurred an average growth of about 3.5 per India’s domestic policy decisions. Thus, in our quality control pro- cent. Modi’s current concept, on the other the future, the partnership is likely to be cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- hand, aims at privatising often unprofitable based on mutual strategic interests more berlin.org/en/about-swp/ state-owned enterprises, commercialising than on shared democratic values. quality-management-for- agriculture and building up national busi- swp-publications/ ness champions, for example in the tech- nology sector. Prominent critics, such as SWP Modi’s former economic advisor Arvind Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Subramanian, object to this path, noting German Institute for that no developing country after the Second International and World War has been able to achieve growth Security Affairs of more than 6 per cent through domestic demand alone. Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 India: An Ambivalent Partner www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] For Germany and Europe, India remains a key player in the Indo-Pacific in terms of ISSN (Print) 1861-1761 ISSN (Online) 2747-5107 foreign and economic policy. Common stra- doi: 10.18449/2021C30 tegic interests, also in view of the rise of China, will generate new initiatives in areas (English version of such as connectivity, digitalisation, trans- SWP-Aktuell 28/2021) portation and the maritime economy, which

Dr. Christian Wagner is a Senior Fellow in the Asia Division at SWP. Jana Lemke was an intern in the Asia Division at SWP.

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