Monthly Report on the Chinese Yuan Market

May 2021

Mizuho Bank (China), Ltd. Treasury Department TOPICS 1: March PMI of China records positive growth for first time since November

• The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the March 2021 manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of China, the result of which recorded an increase of 1.3 points from the previous month at 51.9, while the non-manufacturing PMI turned out to be 56.3, recording an increase of 4.9 points from the previous month. While there had previously been a decline for three consecutive months, the trend was inverted this month to show an increase. Both PMIs have exceeded the 50 mark, used as a reference to judge whether the economy is expanding or shrinking, for the 13th consecutive month. • After the holidays of the Chinese New Year, there were strong figures for new orders in the manufacturing industry, as well as for production and exports. It should however be pointed out that production in the manufacturing industry tends to rally in March every year, so market participants should remain attentive to see if the figures will remain high in the coming months. • PMIs have been rising significantly in the U.S. and Europe, demonstrating business confidence growing again thanks to the advancement of COVID-19 vaccination and economic bailout plans. Thus, relatively speaking, it is likely that there will be fewer factors in the times ahead for the Chinese yuan to appreciate against other currencies based on the economic recovery in China. Manufacturing PMI Non-manufacturing PMI 65

60 60

55 50

50 40

45 30 40 China China (Caixin) China China (Caixin) 20 35 US Japan US Japan EU EU 30 10 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21

Source: Bloomberg 1 TOPICS 2: Chinese government bonds to remain in WGBI for an extended period

• In September 2020, stock index provider FTSE Russell decided to include Chinese government bonds in its representative index, the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI). These bonds were originally planned for weighting to be raised in one year from the end of October 2021. However, in March 2021, FTSE Russell announced its decision to extend the inclusion period to three years. • Since the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in the WGBI, the bond holding rate by foreign investors has been increasing. As a result of the decision to extend the inclusion period, the increase of these bonds' weight in the index would be slower than originally planned. However, market participants still expect investment funds to flow into China related to the index, and this remains a supporting factor for the Chinese yuan from a long-term perspective.

FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index (WGBI) Balance of domestic bonds in China

140 (Unit: CNY, trillions) Introduction of the Bond Decision to be 5%  A wide range of institutional investors in the world use Connect scheme included in the this index. 120 (Jun-17) WGBI (Sep-20) Inclusion in a JP Morgan index  It is estimated that investment funds related to this index (Feb-20) 4% 100 amount to USD 2 trillion to USD 2.5 trillion. Inclusion in a Bloomberg Barclays 80 index (Apr-19) 3% Weight of Chinese 60 government bonds: 40 5.25% 2% 20

Equivalent of USD 100 0 1% billion or more Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Chinese government bonds are to be 政府債務Government debt 中銀手形Central bank bills included in the index in October 2021. 金融債Financial bonds 社債Corporate bonds Demand to buy Chinese yuan 国際機関債Supranational bonds 外国人保有比率（右軸）Foreign holding ratio (right axis) increasing

Source: Bloomberg and various press releases 2 TOPICS 3: March trade statistics of China revealing significant increase in imports and a decline in trade surplus

• On April 13, the General Administration of Customs of China released its March trade statistics (denominated in U.S. dollars), revealing a year-on-year increase of 30.6% in exports at USD 241.1 billion and a year-on-year increase of 38.1% in imports at USD 227.3 billion. The trade balance turned out to be a surplus of USD 13.8 billion, falling to the lowest level since February 2020. • The growth rate of both imports and exports declined from February, in which there was a record-high increase in exports as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, both imports and exports recorded significant increase, demonstrating the contribution of the global economic recovery to expanding demand. • On the other hand, the trade balance started to decline this year. As a decline in the trade surplus can weaken the upward pressure on the Chinese yuan, this can explain the depreciation of the Chinese yuan observed this year. • The increase in imports seen in the statistics is partially a result of the rise of commodity prices. If commodity prices continue to rise in the times ahead, the trade balance could fall into a deficit, of which market participants should remain cautious.

Imports and exports Commodity prices and the foreign exchange rate USD billion 6.8 70 400

Commodity prices, 300 such as the crude oil 6.7 price, started rising 60 200 this year.

100 6.6 50 The appreciation of 0 the Chinese yuan has slowed down for now.

-100 6.5 40

-200

-300 6.4 30 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

輸出Exports 輸入Imports 貿易収支Trade balance USDCNY WTI原油 crude oil

3 Source: Bloomberg TOPICS 4: Major economic indices of China released

• On April 15, major economic indices of China were released. The March industrial production recorded year-on-year growth of +14.1% (estimate was +18.0%), the March retail sales recorded year-on-year growth of +34.2% (estimated at +28.0%), and the March fixed-asset investment in urban areas recorded year-on-year growth of 25.6% (estimated at +26.0%). Even though some indices recorded weaker growth than estimated, the figures were generally strong enough to demonstrate recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, as was the case last month. • On the same day, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first-quarter period was also announced, revealing year-on-year growth of +18.3% (estimated at +18.5%). Global demand grew rapidly for medical equipment and electronic products made in China, as a result of which the secondary industry contributed to the increase in the GDP. The annual average growth rate for the past two years turned out to be 5.0%, confirming recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. • The major economic indices of China saw a temporary decline in the February 2021 figures, such as that of trade and consumer confidence, because of the holidays for the Chinese New Year. However, consumer confidence recovered in the fourth-quarter period in 2020, and there were signs of recovery in a wide range of indices in the first-quarter period in 2021. These indices are likely to continue supporting the Chinese yuan market in the times ahead.

Major economic indices of China

Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q3 2019 Q2 2019 Index Frequency Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Industrial production (YoY, %) Monthly 14.1 35.1 35.1 7.3 7 6.9 6.9 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.4 3.9 -1.1 -13.5 -13.5 6.9 6.2 4.7 5.8 4.4 4.8 6.3 5 5.4 Fixed-asset investment (excl. rural areas/YTD, YoY, %) Monthly 25.6 35 -- 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.8 -0.3 -1.6 -3.1 -6.3 -10.3 -16.1 -24.5 -- 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.6 6.1 Real estate investment (YTD, YoY, %) Monthly 29.58 26.2 16.87 8.41 9.69 9.59 9.3 8.83 7.91 6.42 3.66 -4.29 -12.4 -10.1 -1.58 6.29 7.5 8.39 8.53 9.13 8.81 10.75 11.05 11.5 Retail sales (YoY, %) Monthly 34.2 33.8 33.8 4.6 5 4.3 3.3 0.5 -1.1 -1.8 -2.8 -7.5 -15.8 -20.5 -20.5 8 8 7.2 7.8 7.5 7.6 9.8 8.6 7.2 Retail sales (CNY, billions) 3548 -- -- 4057 3951 3858 3529 3357 3220 3353 3197 2818 2645 -- -- 3878 3809 3810 3449 3390 3307 3388 3296 3059

Exports (USD,%) Monthly 30.6 154.9 24.8 18.1 20.6 10.9 9.4 9.1 6.8 0.2 -3.5 3.1 -6.9 -40.6 -2.9 7.9 -1.3 -0.8 -3.2 -1 3.4 -1.5 1.1 -2.7 Imports (USD, %) Monthly 38.1 17.4 26.9 6.5 3.9 4.4 12.7 -2.3 -1.6 2.3 -16.7 -14.4 -1.3 7.7 -12.7 16.5 0.8 -6.2 -8.2 -5.5 -4.9 -6.8 -8.2 4.5 Exports (USD, billions) Monthly 227.3 167.2 199.1 204.4 191.9 178.6 203 177 176.3 168 144.5 154.5 164.6 142.4 156.9 191.4 184.3 170.7 179.1 180.2 177.8 162.8 172.8 180.5 Imports (USD, billions) Monthly 241.1 204.9 264 281.9 266.9 236.3 238.6 234.4 236.8 212.8 206.4 199.5 184.6 80.38 211.6 238.6 221.4 213 218.2 214.9 221.8 212.5 213.9 193.6 Trade balance (USD, billions) Monthly 13.8 37.68 64.87 77.49 75.09 57.63 35.63 57.32 60.53 44.81 61.93 44.96 19.97 -62 54.69 47.25 37.18 42.31 39.08 34.72 44.02 49.65 41.15 13.07

Manufacturing PMI Monthly 51.9 50.6 51.3 51.9 52.1 51.4 51.5 51 51.1 50.9 50.6 50.8 52 35.7 50 50.2 50.2 49.3 49.8 49.5 49.7 49.4 49.4 50.1 Non-manufacturing PMI Monthly 56.3 51.4 52.4 55.7 56.4 56.2 55.9 55.2 54.2 54.4 53.6 53.2 52.3 29.6 54.1 53.5 54.4 52.8 53.7 53.8 53.7 54.2 54.3 54.3 Consumer Confidence Index Monthly -- 127 122.8 122.1 124 121.7 120.5 116.4 117.2 112.6 115.8 116.4 122.2 118.9 126.4 126.6 124.6 124.3 124.1 122.4 124.4 125.9 123.4 125.3

CPI (YoY, %) Monthly 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.2 5.4 4.5 4.5 3.8 3 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 PPI (YoY, %) Monthly 4.4 1.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.5 -2.1 -2.1 -2 -2.4 -3 -3.7 -3.1 -1.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.4 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 0 0.6 0.9

GDP (YoY, %) Quarterly 18.3 6.5 4.9 3.2 -6.8 5.8 5.9 6 Primary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly 8.1 4.1 3.9 3.3 -3.2 3.4 2.7 3.3 Secondary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly 24.4 6.8 6 4.7 -9.6 5 4.5 4.7 Tertiary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly 15.6 6.7 4.3 1.9 -5.2 6.9 7.4 7.2

4 Source: Bloomberg TOPICS 5: Copper price remaining high

• In April, the copper price started rising rapidly, renewing the recent high. Also, overall commodity prices rose with growing expectations for economic recovery based on the advancement of COVID-19 vaccination as well as environmental engagement. In particular, the copper price has been rising to approach USD 10,190, which is the all-time high, recorded in 2011. • Demand for copper increased as a result of the economic recovery of China, while global demand for copper is expected to increase thanks to the investment in sustainable infrastructure by the Biden administration in the U.S. as well as due to the promotion of electric vehicles around the world. While the production volume has been approaching the level before the COVID-19 crisis, the supply volume could remain unstable, as there are possibilities of a strike. • While there has been a tight supply & demand balance, the copper price is expected to remain high in the times ahead.

LIME copper price and copper import value Impact by factor on copper price

USD/MT USD Bio ☆ 中国China銅輸入金額（ copper importLHS） value (LHS) Increase of production costs 6 11000 ☆ Economic measures taken by various ☆ Mine-related conflicts countries LMEThree銅3M-month（RHS LIME） copper (RHS) ☆ Advancement of COVID-19 Supply 10000 Demand 5 vaccination ★ Concerns over the further spread of the 20% 30% 9000 COVID-19 cases 4 ☆ Infrastructure investment ☆ Shift to electric vehicles 8000 3 ☆ Depreciation of the U.S. 7000 Other China dollar ☆ Economic bailout ☆ Monetary policy with 2 measures 20% 6000 30% extremely low interest rates ★ Concerns over a slowdown ☆ Capital inflow into risk in growth assets 1 5000

0 4000

* Outlook by MHBK’s Global Markets Trading Department *☆ refers to strengthening factors, while ★ refers to weakening factors.

5 Source: Bloomberg Outlook: Key issues in the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange market

Weakening factor for the Chinese yuan (i.e., the Strengthening factor for the Chinese yuan (i.e., the fall of Key events rise of the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate) rate)

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) • Federal Reserve Board (FRB) acceptance of Short term meeting in the U.S. • Economic slowdown as a result of another wave of COVID- inflation (up to one month • Economic policy in 19 cases in the U.S. and Europe • Economic recovery in developed countries as a ahead) China • Early recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in China result of the advancement of COVID-19 • Evolution of the COVID- vaccination 19 pandemic • Economic policy in the U.S. • Monetary policy in China • Additional economic bailout programs in the U.S. • Evolution of COVID-19 • Economic growth based on expansionary fiscal policy in • Tough attitude of the Biden administration against Medium term vaccination China China (Up to six months • 100-year anniversary of • Chinese economic recovery • Concerns over capital outflow from emerging ahead) the Communist Party of • Dual circulation strategy countries as a result of a global economic China slowdown • Politburo meeting in China • Legislative elections in Hong Kong

• Monetary policy in the • Abolition of the foreign exchange policy to control U.S. the depreciation of the Chinese yuan • Evolution of COVID-19 • Security investment inflow as a result of the liberation of the • China’s engagement in excessive investment and Long term vaccination monetary market the solution of excessive debt problems, as well (one year or longer) • Central Committee • Rise of the status of the Chinese yuan as a global currency as the promotion of painful reform meeting in China for foreign currency reserves • Increased cases of defaults by Chinese • Central Economic Work • FRB’s attitude not to raise the interest rate for a long time companies Conference in China • Confusion related to Brexit

6 Outlook for the Chinese yuan exchange market

USD/CNY 7.2

7.0

6.8

Upper end 6.6 6.70 Upper end Lower end 6.65 Upper end 6.40 Lower end 6.60 Upper end Upper end 6.4 6.35 Lower end 6.55 6.55 6.30 Lower end Lower end Jun-21 6.25 6.25 Outlook range Sep-21 6.2 6.55 Dec-21 6.50 Mar-22 Jun-22 6.45 6.40 6.40 6.0 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22 18.5 CNY/JPY Upper end 18.0 Upper end 18.6 Upper end 18.4 17.5 Upper Upper end 18.1 Lower end Lower end Outlook range end 17.8 16.5 17.0 16.5 17.5 Lower end Lower end 16.2 16.5 Lower 15.9 end 16.0 15.8 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-21 17.7 17.8 15.5 17.4 Jun-21 16.9 16.6 15.0

14.5 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22 May-22

Source: Compiled based on past data provided by Bloomberg and on estimates by MHBK 7 Outlook for the Chinese yuan exchange market

2021 2022 May-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 6.40 ～ 6.70 6.35 ～ 6.65 6.30 ～ 6.60 6.25 ～ 6.55 6.25 ～ 6.55 USD/CNY （6.55）（6.50）（6.45）（6.40）（6.40） 5.71 ～ 6.32 5.62 ～ 6.27 5.53 ～ 6.17 5.43 ～ 6.07 5.39 ～ 6.07 100JPY/CNY （6.01）（5.91）（5.76）（5.66）（5.61） 15.82 ～ 17.50 15.94 ～ 17.80 16.21 ～ 18.10 16.49 ～ 18.40 16.49 ～ 18.56 CNY/JPY （16.64）（16.92）（17.36）（17.66）（17.81） 7.49 ～ 8.11 7.37 ～ 8.05 7.25 ～ 7.99 7.19 ～ 7.93 7.13 ～ 7.86 EUR/CNY （7.79）（7.67）（7.55）（7.55）（7.55）

* Outlook for major currencies

2021 2022 May-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 106 ～ 112 106 ～ 113 107 ～ 114 108 ～ 115 108 ～ 116 USD/JPY （109）（110）（112）（113）（114） 1.17 ～ 1.21 1.16 ～ 1.21 1.15 ～ 1.21 1.15 ～ 1.21 1.14 ～ 1.20 EUR/USD （1.19）（1.18）（1.17）（1.18）（1.18） 128 ～ 134 129 ～ 135 130 ～ 136 131 ～ 138 132 ～ 139 EUR/JPY （130）（130）（131）（133）（135）

Forecast by MHBK (China) The figures in parentheses are forecasts for the closing rate of each quarter.

8 Outlook for other major currencies

Review In April, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate fell. The U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange market opened at the mid-CNY 6.55 level at the beginning of the month, after which the exchange rate reached the upper-CNY 6.57 level, recording the monthly high. Thereafter, market participants mainly sold the U.S. dollar as U.S. interest rates fell. In the middle of the month, major economic indices of China were released, including the GDP, and the figures turned out to be strong, while a speech made by Chinese President Xi Jinping also led the Chinese yuan to appreciate. As a result, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange fell below the CNY 6.50 mark. Furthermore, an FOMC meeting was held at the end of the month, and this accelerated U.S. USD/CNY dollar-selling further. Consequently, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate temporarily fell to the CNY 6.46 level. Outlook At an FOMC meeting in the U.S., it was seen as too early to discuss a shift in monetary policy, and this made it less likely for the U.S. dollar to appreciate from a long-term perspective. Also, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate approached the lower-CNY 6.42 level—the lowest rate for the year. The exchange rate is expected to remain low in the times ahead. It should, however, be also mentioned that there are risks for the U.S. dollar to appreciate, if the U.S. economy demonstrates steady recovery, fueling expectations in the market for a reduction in the asset purchasing program. Market participants should therefore remain attentive of economic indices in the U.S.

Review In April, the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate fell. The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange market opened trading at the upper-JPY 110 level, after which the U.S. dollar depreciated with the falling interest rates in the U.S. The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate fell to approach the JPY 108 level. Thereafter, the exchange rate continued fluctuating at the same level. In the last week of the month, the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate rallied slightly based on the outcome of a monetary policy meeting held at the Bank of Japan and an FOMC meeting in the U.S., as well as due to U.S. President Joe Biden’s speech on how he plans to carry out his policy measures. The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange market closed at the JPY 109 level. USD/JPY Outlook U.S. dollar interest rates have been rising fast since the beginning of the year, and the trend may be inverted in the times ahead. However, the advancement in COVID-19 vaccination and growing expectations for economic recovery based on additional economic bailout measures are likely to remain a factor to lead to the rise of U.S. interest rates and U.S. dollar-buying. Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccination has been slow in Japan, and the Japanese yen interest rates remain low, which causes the depreciation of the Japanese yen, leading the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate to rise as a result.

Review In April, the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate rose. The euro/U.S. dollar exchange market opened trading at the lower-USD 1.17 level, after which U.S. interest rates fell, weakening the U.S. dollar. Market participants were also buying the euro based on the current account surplus and trade surplus, and this also contributed to the rise of the exchange rate. The euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate thus rose to the mid-USD 1.21 level at the end of the month. EUR/USD Outlook The euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate is forecast to fall. The FRB has been accepting the rise of U.S. interest rates, while the ECB has clearly demonstrated its attitude to control the rise of interest rates in Europe through accelerated asset purchasing and other means. Therefore, differences in monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe are likely to encourage market participants to sell the euro and buy the U.S. dollar.

9 Outlook for the Chinese yuan interest rate market: Chinese government bond yields continue fluctuating within a narrow range

• Since 2018, the Chinese monetary authorities have been rapidly taking measures to mitigate the sense of uncertainty and concerns over an economic slowdown based on trade friction through active fiscal expenditures and monetary easing including infrastructure investment, while also slowing down the pace of the restriction on deleveraging and shadow banking. Under such circumstances, interest rates have been falling, as the liquidity level remains high. . Since April 2019, interest rates had not fallen significantly, as there was no more expectation for additional measures of monetary easing, with economic indices that turned out to be stronger than estimated, as well as with the recovering stock market. However, in February 2020, interest rates fell sharply due to the sense of uncertainty over the economic outlook fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic. . After hitting bottom in June 2020, the economy in China stabilized more than economies did for other countries. As a consequence, interest rates in China were on the rise. However, as the Chinese monetary authorities revealed their intention to maintain a moderate monetary policy, interest rates in China are currently fluctuating within a narrow range. . Even though market participants should remain cautious about the actions taken by the Chinese monetary authorities, interest rates in China are likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range as long as the current monetary policy is maintained. China Development Bank (CDB) 5.5% bond yields

4.5%

3.5%

2.5%

1.5% May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20

CDB3Y CBD5Y CDB10Y Source: Bloomberg

10 Markets in China

Foreign exchange market Stock market

105 7.4 3800

7.2 3600 100 7.0 3400 6.8 95 3200 6.6 3000 90 6.4 2800 6.2 85 6.0 2600 80 5.8 2400 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-21

USD Index(LHS) USD/CNY(RHS) Shanghai Stcok Exchange Composite

Short-term interest rate market Bond (CDB yield) market

6% 6%

5% 5%

4% 4%

3% 3%

2% 2%

1% 1%

0% 0% May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20

ShiborO/N Shibor1M Shibor3M CDB1Y CBD5Y CDB10Y

Source: Bloomberg

11 List of China’s economic indices

Q2 2021 Q1 2021 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q2 2020 Index Frequency Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Industrial production (YTD, YoY, %) Monthly - 24.5 35.1- 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 -2.8 Fixed-assets investment (excl. rural areas/YTD, YoY, %) Monthly - 25.6 35- 2.9 2.6 1.8 0.8 -0.3 -1.6 -3.1 -6.3 Real estate investment (YTD, YoY, %) Monthly - 25.6 38.3- 7 6.8 6.3 5.6 4.6 3.4 1.9 -0.3 Retail sales (YoY, %) Monthly - 34.2- - 4.6 5 4.3 3.3 0.5 -1.1 -1.8 -2.8 Retail sales (CNY, billions) - 3548- - 4057 3951 3858 3529 3357 3220 3353 3197

Exports (USD,%) Monthly - 30.6 154.9 24.8 18.1 20.6 10.9 9.4 9.1 6.8 0.2 -3.5 Imports (USD, %) Monthly - 38.1 17.4 26.9 6.5 3.9 4.4 12.7 -2.3 -1.6 2.3 -16.7 Exports (USD, billions) Monthly - 241 205 264 282 267 236 239 234 237 213 206 Imports (USD, billions) Monthly - 227 167 199 204 192 179 203 177 176 168 144 Trade balance (USD, billions) Monthly - 13.8 37.7 64.9 77.5 75.1 57.6 35.6 57.3 60.5 44.8 61.9

Manufacturing PMI Monthly 51.1 51.9 50.6 51.3 51.9 52.1 51.4 51.5 51 51.1 50.9 50.6 Non-manufacturing PMI Monthly 54.9 56.3 51.4 52.4 55.7 56.4 56.2 55.9 55.2 54.2 54.4 53.6 Consumer Confidence Index Monthly - 122.2 127 122.8 122.1 124 121.7 120.5 116.4 117.2 112.6 115.8

CPI (YoY, %) Monthly - 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.5 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 PPI (YoY, %) Monthly - 4.4 1.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.5 -2.1 -2.1 -2 -2.4 -3 -3.7

GDP (YoY, %) Quarterly - 18.3- - 6.5- - 4.9- - 3.2- Primary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly - 8.1- - 4.1- - 3.9- - 3.3- Secondary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly - 24.4- - 6.8- - 6- - 4.7- Tertiary industry (YoY, %) Quarterly - 15.6- - 6.7- - 4.3- - 1.9-

12 Source: Bloomberg Notice and Contact Information Regarding This Document

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