METOCEAN SUMMARY
Wind, hydrodynamic and wave ambient
and extreme statistics in the
Great South Basin, New Zealand
Report prepared for
Shell New Zealand Ltd Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
MetOcean Solutions Ltd: Report P0181-02 September 2017
Report status
Version Date Status Approved by RevA 22/09/2017 Draft for internal review Monetti RevB 27/09/2017 Draft for client review Thiebaut Rev0 28/09/2017 Approved for release Thiebaut
This work in this report was co-ordinated by Dr. Severin Thiebaut.
It is the responsibility of the reader to verify the currency of the version number of this report.
The information, including the intellectual property, contained in this report is confidential and proprietary to MetOcean Solutions Ltd. It may be used by the persons to whom it is provided for the stated purpose for which it is provided, and must not be imparted to any third person without the prior written approval of MetOcean Solutions Ltd. MetOcean Solutions Ltd reserves all legal rights and remedies in relation to any infringement of its rights in respect of its confidential information.
PO Box 441, New Plymouth, New Zealand T: 64-6-7585035 E: [email protected] www.metocean.co.nz Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction ...... 1 2. Data sources and analysis methods ...... 3 2.1. Wind dataset ...... 3 2.2. Wave dataset ...... 3 2.3. Hydrodynamic dataset ...... 4 2.4. Analytical methods ...... 4 2.4.1. Spectral parameters ...... 4 2.4.2. Extreme value analysis ...... 5 3. Wind Statistics ...... 7 4. Wave statistics ...... 20 5. Current statistics ...... 43 6. Temperature statistics ...... 71 7. Water level statistics ...... 81 8. Extreme metocean statistics ...... 82 9. References ...... 89 Appendix A. Wind validation ...... 90 Appendix B. Wave validation ...... 92 Appendix C. Current validation ...... 94
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Bathymetry map showing the reporting site (red dot) in the Great South Basin, New Zealand. Geographic coordinates and water depth are provided in Table 1.1...... 2 Figure 3.1 Annual wind rose plot at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which the winds blow...... 17 Figure 3.2 Monthly wind rose plot at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which the winds blow...... 18 Figure 3.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) wind speed (1979 – 2015)...... 19 Figure 4.1 Annual wave rose plot for the total significant wave height at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which waves approach...... 40 Figure 4.2 Monthly wave rose plot for the total significant wave height at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which waves approach ...... 41 Figure 4.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) significant wave height (1979 – 2015)...... 42 Figure 5.1 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 10 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 59 Figure 5.2 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 10 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 60 Figure 5.3 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 500 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 61 Figure 5.4 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 500 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 62 Figure 5.5 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 1000 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 63 Figure 5.6 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 1000 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 64 Figure 5.7 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 10 m bss...... 65 Figure 5.8 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 500 m bss...... 66 Figure 5.9 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 1000 m bss...... 67 Figure 5.10 Annual current rose plot for the depth-averaged tidal current speed at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention...... 69 Figure 5.11 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) depth- averaged tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at Site P1...... 70 Figure 6.1 Mean seasonal sea temperature profile along the water column at P1. .. 77 Figure 6.2 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 10 m bss...... 78 Figure 6.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 500 m bss...... 79 Figure 6.4 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 1000 m bss...... 80 Figure 8.1 Contour plot of omni-directional bi-variate return period values (ARI1, 10, 50 and 100-year) at Site P1 for significant wave height and peak wave period. The dark crosses correspond to the estimated deterministic Hs and associated Tp return period values for each ARI indicated in the legend...... 83 Figure 8.2 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of
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goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 84 Figure 8.3 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Weibull cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for wind speed at Site P1...... 85 Figure 8.4 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 10 m at Site P1...... 86 Figure 8.5 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 500 m at Site P1...... 87 Figure 8.6 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 1000 m at Site P1...... 88 Figure A.1 Location of the project (red dot) and wind stations (yellow dots) used to validate the 12 km NZRA model...... 90 Figure A.2 Wind roses (top) and scatter density diagrams (bottom) comparing measured and model wind velocities at Kupe over 2012. Hot colours indicate higher density of data-points in the diagrams...... 90 Figure A.3 Wind roses (top) and scatter density diagrams (bottom) comparing measured and model wind velocities at Dunedin over 2012. Hot colours indicate higher density of data-points in the diagrams...... 91 Figure B.1 Area (red dot line) around Site P1 used to validate the wave hindcast based on measured satellite altimetry data...... 92 Figure B.2 Wave validation over the specific area around Site P1 shown in Figure B.1.: number of satellite observations (a) and Hs Bias (b) between model and measured data. A positive bias indicate an overestimation of the model...... 92 Figure B.3 Scatter density diagram (top) and Q-Q plot (bottom) using model and measured Hs data over the specific area around Site P1 shown in Figure B.1...... 93 Figure C.1 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 30 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 94 Figure C.2 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 40 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 95 Figure C.3 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 50 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 96 Figure C.4 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 60 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 97 Figure C.5 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 70 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 98
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Figure C.6 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 80 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 99 Figure C.7 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 90 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 100 Figure C.8 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 100 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 101 Figure C.9 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 110 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 102 Figure C.10 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 30 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 103 Figure C.11 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 40 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 104 Figure C.12 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 50 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 105 Figure C.13 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 60 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 106 Figure C.14 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 70 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 107 Figure C.15 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 80 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 108 Figure C.16 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 90 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 109 Figure C.17 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 100 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 110 Figure C.18 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 110 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS...... 111
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Geographic coordinates and water depth of the reporting site...... 1 Table 3.1 Monthly and annual wind speed statistics at Site P1...... 8 Table 3.2 Annual wind speed statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1...... 9 Table 3.3 Monthly and annual wind speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1. .... 10 Table 3.4 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 11 Table 3.5 January joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 11 Table 3.6 February joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 12 Table 3.7 March joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 12 Table 3.8 April joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 13 Table 3.9 May joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 13 Table 3.10 June joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 14 Table 3.11 July joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 14 Table 3.12 August joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 15 Table 3.13 September joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 15 Table 3.14 October joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 16 Table 3.15 November joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 16 Table 3.16 December joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1...... 17 Table 4.1 Annual and monthly total significant wave height statistics at Site P1. .... 21 Table 4.2 Annual and monthly significant swell wave height statistics at Site P1. ... 22 Table 4.3 Annual and monthly significant sea wave height statistics at Site P1. .... 23 Table 4.4 Annual total significant wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1. .... 24 Table 4.5 Annual significant swell wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1. ... 25 Table 4.6 Annual significant sea wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1...... 26 Table 4.7 Monthly and annual total significant wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1...... 27 Table 4.8 Monthly and annual significant swell wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1...... 28 Table 4.9 Monthly and annual significant sea wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1...... 29 Table 4.10 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1...... 30 Table 4.11 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1...... 31 Table 4.12 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1...... 32 Table 4.13 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1...... 33 Table 4.14 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1...... 34
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Table 4.15 Annual persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 35 Table 4.16 Summer persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 36 Table 4.17 Autumn persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 37 Table 4.18 Winter persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 38 Table 4.19 Spring persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1...... 39 Table 5.1 Monthly and annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1...... 43 Table 5.2 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1...... 44 Table 5.3 Monthly and annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1...... 45 Table 5.4 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1...... 46 Table 5.5 Monthly non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1...... 47 Table 5.6 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1...... 48 Table 5.7 Monthly and annual 10 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1...... 49 Table 5.8 Monthly and annual 500 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1...... 50 Table 5.9 Monthly and annual 1000 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1...... 50 Table 5.10 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 51 Table 5.11 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 52 Table 5.12 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 53 Table 5.13 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 54 Table 5.14 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 55 Table 5.15 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 56 Table 5.16 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 56 Table 5.17 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 56 Table 5.18 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 57 Table 5.19 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 57 Table 5.20 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 57 Table 5.21 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 58 Table 5.22 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 58
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Table 5.23 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 58 Table 5.24 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1...... 59 Table 5.25 Monthly and annual depth-averaged tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at Site P1...... 68 Table 6.1 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1...... 71 Table 6.2 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1...... 72 Table 6.3 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1...... 73 Table 6.4 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1...... 74 Table 6.5 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1...... 75 Table 6.6 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1...... 76 Table 7.1 Tidal water level parameters at Site P1, as resolved from the modelled tidal constituents...... 81 Table 8.1 Wind, current and wave extreme values at Site P1...... 82
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1. INTRODUCTION
Shell New Zealand Ltd has commissioned MetOcean Solutions Ltd (MOS) to undertake a desktop analysis of the metocean conditions at Tawhaki site (P1) within the Sirius Prospect area located approximately 140 km to the southeast of Dunedin, New Zealand, in the Great South Basin (Figure 1.1). Geographic coordinates and water depth are provided in Table 1.1.
An overview of the metocean conditions in the area is required to provide an initial characterisation of the environment from a marine operability perspective, plus identify potential hazards and document the important aspects of the environmental conditions that may require further attention.
A variety of numerical hindcast data have been used to characterise the wave, hydrodynamic and wind climate at the reporting site and those sources are detailed in Section 2 of the report. The ambient wind, wave, current and water temperature statistics are provided in Section 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively. Extreme statistics are reported in Section 7 and the references cited are listed in the final Section 8. Note that the standard oceanographic directional conventions are applied in this report, with waves and winds reported in the ‘coming from’ directional reference. Current flows are in the ‘going to’ directional reference.
Table 1.1 Geographic coordinates and water depth of the reporting site.
Geographic coordinates (WGS84) Site Prospect Water depth Longitude Latitude P1 Sirius 171.638920 E 46.935873 S 1318 m
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Figure 1.1 Bathymetry map showing the reporting site (red dot) in the Great South Basin, New Zealand. Geographic coordinates and water depth are provided in Table 1.1.
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2. DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS METHODS
2.1. Wind dataset
Near-surface wind conditions were extracted at hourly intervals at Site P1 from a 12 km resolution New Zealand atmospheric hindcast reanalysis from 1979 to 2015 using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model and deriving boundary conditions from the global Climate Forecast System Reanalysis CFSR and CFSRv2 products (Saha et al., 2010). The CFSR data span 37 years (1979 – 2015) at hourly intervals and 0.31° spatial resolution (approximately 30 km) from January 1979 to March 2011 and 0.20° (approximately 20 km) beyond April 2011. Only the near surface wind field (i.e. 10 minute mean at 10 m elevation) will be used in the study.
Validation of the WRF reanalysis has been undertaken at various locations around New Zealand. Results are provided in Appendix A.
2.2. Wave dataset
Directional wave spectra at Site P1 have been defined from a 37-year (1979-2015) high-resolution SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) wave hindcast. First, a global scale wave hindcast was produced by MetOcean Solutions using the WW3 (WAVEWATCH III) model with a resolution of 0.5° by 0.5° using the ST4 physics (Ardhuin et al., 2010). The WRF wind field was used for wind forcing and the Tolman and Chalikov (1996) physics options were applied in the model configuration. These hindcast data were extracted at 3-hour intervals and were used to prescribe spectral boundaries for a regional Southern New Zealand SWAN wave model domain (at 0.04° by 0.04° resolution).
The MSL implementation of WW3-ST4 contains several physics options which are given below:
• The source terms parameterizations of Ardhuin et al. (2010)
• The Discreet Interaction Approximation (DIA) (Hasselmann et al., 1985) for computation of the non-linear wave-wave interactions
• Third order Ultimate Quickest propagation scheme (Leonard, 1979, Leonard, 1991) including the correction for spurious effects of spectral discretization (the garden sprinkler effect), as suggested by Tolman (2002).
SWAN is a third generation ocean wave propagation model, which solves the spectral action density balance equation for wavenumber-direction spectra. This means that the growth, refraction, and decay of each component of the complete sea state, each with a specific frequency and direction, is solved, giving a complete and realistic description of the wave field as it changes in time and space. Physical processes that are simulated include the generation of waves by surface wind, dissipation by white-capping, resonant nonlinear interaction between the wave components, bottom friction and depth limited breaking. A detailed
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description of the model equations, parameterizations, and numerical schemes can be found in Holthuijsen et al. (2007) or the online SWAN documentation1. All 3rd generation physics are included. The Collins friction scheme is used for wave dissipation by bottom friction. The solution of the wavefield is found for the non-stationary (time-stepping) mode. Boundary conditions, wind forcing and resulting solutions are all time dependent, allowing the model to capture the growth, development and decay of the wavefield. SWAN was configured with 23 frequency bins and 36 directional bins.
Results of the wave validation process using on altimetry observations are provided in Appendix B. 2.3. Hydrodynamic dataset
The hydrodynamic conditions including both the residual shelf circulation and the temperature at Site P1 were derived from a 36-year (1980-2015) New Zealand hindcast performed by MetOcean Solutions using the ROMS hydrodynamic model version 3.7 (Regional Ocean Modelling System, described in Haidvogel, 2008). The open boundary conditions that were imposed to the ROMS – NZ domain consisted of tri-dimensional velocity, temperature, salinity and sea surface height fields derived from the 6- hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis product (Saha et al., 2010) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which consisted of a 0.5 degree global reanalysis with comprehensive data assimilation. The WRF wind field described in Section 2.1 was used for wind forcing.
The long duration of the hindcast provides good statistical power in estimating return period extrema and characterising inter-annual variability. Numerous current meter data from around NZ have been used to validate the regional scale ROMS model. The resolution of the ROMS domain is 0.08° by 0.06°. Depth-averaged tidal currents and tidal water levels were sourced from the Princeton Ocean Model MetOcean Solutions Ltd (POM- MSL) tide model of New Zealand.
Result of the ROMS validation at location 170.847oE,45.998oS within the Great South Basin are provided in Appendix C. 2.4. Analytical methods
2.4.1. Spectral parameters For each two-dimensional (frequency, f, and direction, ) wave spectrum, a one-dimensional frequency spectrum is defined as:
Sn f En f , d (2.1)
and the peak frequency, fp of the one-dimensional spectrum is identified. The significant wave height, Hs, mean direction at peak energy, θp and peak period, Tp are defined as:
1 http://swanmodel.sourceforge.net/
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H 4 S f df s n 0 E f , sin d n p p arctan (2.2 a,b,c) E f , cos d n p
T p 1 f p
The directional sectoring assigns the sea partition from each spectrum to one of the directional bins using the values of θp.
A spectral split at 8 s period was applied with spectral energy at frequencies corresponding to periods of 8 s or greater classified as swell and otherwise as sea. Equations 2.2(a,b,c) were used to obtain the sea and swell wave parameters, but using the spectrum (Equation 2.1) within the corresponding partition. Mean spectral wave periods corresponding to mean zero-crossing wave period were defined as:
푚2 푇푚02 = , (2.3) 푚0
2.4.2. Extreme value analysis Omnidirectional return period values were calculated from the wind, current and wave hindcast time series for Averaged Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of 1,10, 50 and 100 years. A POT sampling method was used for event selection, applying the 95th percentile exceedance level as the threshold with a 24 hour window.
For extreme value analysis of wind speed and current speed, the selected events were fitted to a Weibull distribution, with the location parameter fixed by the threshold and the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) used to obtain the scale and shape parameters. For significant wave height, the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) was used with the MLM method.
Bivariate return period values were calculated for significant wave height and peak wave period (Tp). The method of Repko et al. (2005) was used, which considers the distribution of Hs and wave steepness, s. Contours of the return period values were constructed from the joint PDF using the Inverse FORM method (Winterstein et al., 1993) at the required average recurrence interval (ARI).
The methods used to estimate extreme maximum individual wave height (Hmax) and maximum wave crest (Cmax) account for the long-term uncertainty about the severity of the environment and the short-term uncertainty about the severity of the maximum wave of a given sea state, as suggested by Tromans and Vanderschuren (1995) and recommended by ISO (2005). The most probable value of the extreme individual wave height (Hmp) of each storm was obtained from the product of the Rayleigh
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distributions of individual wave height in each 3-hour interval within the storm duration. The same technique was used to obtain the most probable value of the extreme individual wave crest (Cmp) but using the Weibull distribution with scale and shape parameters dependent on the wave steepness and the Ursell number (ISO, 2005; Forristall, 2000). Note that the resulting short-term distributions for each storm depend on the number of intervals with Hs values near the region of maximum peak Hs. The uncertainty in the height and crest of the maximum wave of any storm is represented as a short-term probability distribution conditional on Hmp and Cmp, respectively (Tromans and Vanderschuren, 1995). The long-term distributions of Hmp and Cmp are then fitted to Pareto distributions. Finally, the convolutions of the short- and long-term distributions give the complete long-term distributions of Hmax and Cmax (Tromans and Vanderschuren, 1995; ISO 2005).
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3. WIND STATISTICS
Wind statistics at Sites P1 including common statistics (mean, maximum, percentiles, etc.), exceedence probabilities and joint probabilities are presented in Table 3.1 to Table 3.16. Annual and monthly wind roses are provided in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2, respectively. A series of regional maps are presented to characterise the wind regime around Site P1. These maps are derived from the wind hindcast described in Section 2. Mean, maximum and mean of annual maximum wind speed, significant wave height, non-tidal and tidal current speed are presented in Figure 3.3.
At Site P1, the annual mean wind speed is 8.52 m/s, while the windiest month is June (mean wind speed of 9.16 m/s) and the least windy month is December (mean wind speed of 7.84 m/s). Wind speeds may exceed 22 m/s throughout the year, with February and March having the highest occurrence of strong wind events based on the exceedence probabilities. Annual and monthly wind roses show the predominance of wind blowing from the N, W and SW octants.
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Table 3.1 Monthly and annual wind speed statistics at Site P1.
(1) Period Wind speed statistics (01 Jan 1979 - 31 Wind speed (m/s) Exceedance Percentile for wind speed (m/s) Main (4) Direction(s) Dec 2015) min max mean std p1 p5 p10 p50 p80 p90 p95 p98 p99 Jan 0.01 27.00 8.02 3.91 1.04 2.23 3.18 7.68 11.30 13.38 15.10 16.85 18.07 N SW W Feb 0.04 28.44 7.87 3.78 1.05 2.21 3.14 7.57 11.19 13.03 14.51 16.18 17.13 N SW W Mar 0.07 29.73 8.30 3.91 1.02 2.35 3.37 8.07 11.59 13.53 15.17 17.08 18.33 N SW W Apr 0.02 23.97 8.59 3.89 1.14 2.61 3.69 8.35 11.87 13.91 15.52 17.14 18.20 N SW W NW May 0.03 24.93 9.15 4.08 1.32 2.91 3.99 8.89 12.61 14.65 16.47 18.20 19.34 N SW W NW Jun 0.05 24.77 9.16 4.01 1.28 3.01 4.12 8.91 12.53 14.60 16.23 18.04 19.30 SW W Jul 0.08 24.47 8.66 3.83 1.29 2.78 3.80 8.41 11.92 13.78 15.45 17.10 18.14 N SW W NW Aug 0.05 23.98 8.68 3.81 1.32 2.76 3.81 8.51 11.94 13.74 15.20 16.93 18.19 N SW W Sep 0.11 24.29 8.89 3.91 1.19 2.80 3.89 8.68 12.22 14.19 15.73 17.50 18.44 N SW W NW Oct 0.07 25.07 8.63 3.81 1.16 2.71 3.74 8.44 11.88 13.75 15.23 16.89 17.94 N SW W NW Nov 0.09 25.87 8.40 3.86 1.08 2.45 3.45 8.15 11.81 13.61 15.07 16.72 17.80 N SW W Dec 0.04 24.78 7.84 3.67 0.89 2.15 3.14 7.67 10.90 12.76 14.23 15.90 17.16 N SW W Summer (2) 0.01 29.73 8.18 3.84 1.03 2.33 3.32 7.93 11.46 13.36 14.90 16.63 17.79 N SW W Winter (3) 0.02 24.93 8.86 3.93 1.25 2.81 3.88 8.62 12.18 14.14 15.78 17.53 18.68 N SW W NW Annual 0.01 29.73 8.52 3.90 1.13 2.54 3.58 8.28 11.83 13.76 15.37 17.13 18.26 N SW W Notes: (1) All statistics derived from hindcast wind data (10-min mean at 10 m AMSL) for the period 01 January 1979 to 31 December 2015. (2) Summer: October to March. (3) Winter: April to September. (4) Main directions are those with greater than 15% occurrence and represent directions from which the winds approach.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 8 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.2 Annual wind speed statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1.
Parameter U (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) ( m/s) ( m/s) ( m/s) ( m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) 1979 0.19 8.39 3.60 3.96 8.11 13.07 14.60 18.07 23.42 1980 0.13 8.90 3.89 3.99 8.74 14.07 15.52 18.56 29.73 1981 0.09 8.42 3.92 3.46 8.20 13.59 15.21 18.21 22.85 1982 0.07 8.72 3.91 3.76 8.48 13.90 15.83 18.78 23.62 1983 0.08 8.73 3.99 3.62 8.44 14.36 15.67 18.24 22.53 1984 0.07 8.19 3.82 3.38 7.89 13.34 14.91 18.04 22.33 1985 0.13 7.98 3.64 3.38 7.75 12.80 14.34 17.29 23.29 1986 0.09 8.30 3.93 3.42 7.98 13.68 15.39 18.30 23.56 1987 0.03 8.93 4.10 3.62 8.74 14.25 15.86 19.15 24.47 1988 0.11 9.38 3.99 4.26 9.12 14.85 16.34 19.05 24.02 1989 0.10 8.12 3.74 3.44 7.84 13.14 14.94 17.78 21.98 1990 0.04 8.70 4.01 3.57 8.49 14.00 15.69 18.53 21.48 1991 0.10 8.43 4.08 3.36 8.11 14.10 15.75 18.62 24.93 1992 0.14 8.60 3.92 3.59 8.37 13.86 15.40 18.44 21.63 1993 0.04 8.80 3.84 3.85 8.62 14.01 15.45 17.81 24.24 1994 0.28 8.89 3.82 3.93 8.78 14.07 15.44 17.62 21.19 1995 0.14 8.51 3.85 3.59 8.35 13.56 15.08 17.74 24.29 1996 0.06 7.78 3.52 3.34 7.47 12.62 14.13 16.66 21.07 1997 0.12 8.72 3.96 3.63 8.56 13.92 15.74 18.74 25.87 1998 0.18 8.70 4.12 3.30 8.57 14.31 15.81 18.48 25.52 1999 0.12 8.16 3.73 3.37 8.04 13.12 14.74 17.25 21.23 2000 0.14 8.37 3.85 3.45 8.18 13.41 14.95 18.06 24.77 2001 0.11 8.07 3.79 3.29 7.83 13.17 14.82 17.88 22.26 2002 0.13 8.91 3.99 3.76 8.73 14.17 15.52 18.85 24.78 2003 0.09 8.38 3.78 3.59 8.20 13.58 14.93 17.38 20.71 2004 0.02 8.65 3.96 3.68 8.32 13.97 15.49 18.62 28.44 2005 0.14 8.01 3.65 3.32 7.85 12.97 14.32 16.52 19.84 2006 0.01 8.81 3.96 3.55 8.77 14.01 15.65 18.47 22.67 2007 0.15 8.56 4.02 3.71 8.10 14.08 15.99 19.66 25.07 2008 0.04 8.28 3.66 3.76 8.02 13.21 14.68 17.57 21.26 2009 0.09 8.57 3.78 3.73 8.33 13.72 15.11 17.89 22.62 2010 0.05 8.42 3.88 3.50 8.17 13.76 15.24 17.89 22.41 2011 0.04 8.58 4.19 3.38 8.18 14.61 16.45 19.14 23.31 2012 0.17 8.35 3.85 3.50 8.02 13.41 15.16 18.08 23.28 2013 0.09 8.14 3.72 3.45 7.85 13.22 14.60 17.17 21.17 2014 0.08 8.68 4.06 3.64 8.34 14.27 15.88 18.60 23.98 2015 0.12 9.07 4.05 3.85 8.94 14.45 16.10 19.36 23.97 Annual 0.01 8.52 3.90 3.58 8.28 13.76 15.37 18.26 29.73
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 9 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.3 Monthly and annual wind speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1.
Exceedence (%) U (/m/s) January February March April May June July August September October November December Year
>0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >2 95.88 95.97 96.36 97.03 97.55 97.77 97.46 97.57 97.29 97.36 96.62 95.62 96.88 >4 84.23 83.64 86.05 88.24 89.93 90.59 88.76 88.83 89.40 88.47 86.67 84.28 87.44 >6 66.45 65.04 69.14 72.64 76.13 77.36 73.78 73.55 75.39 73.36 70.43 66.59 71.68 >8 46.94 45.95 50.58 53.50 58.27 58.77 54.30 54.65 56.99 54.30 51.48 46.67 52.72 >10 28.58 28.72 32.22 34.32 39.78 39.61 34.87 36.02 37.39 35.28 33.55 27.25 33.98 >12 16.26 15.12 17.44 19.22 24.10 23.48 19.49 19.51 21.33 19.22 18.71 13.47 18.95 >14 7.87 6.39 8.21 9.70 12.56 12.33 9.15 8.84 10.85 9.04 8.36 5.63 9.08 >16 3.20 2.19 3.41 3.78 6.12 5.58 3.80 3.43 4.34 3.37 3.06 1.88 3.69 >18 1.02 0.50 1.17 1.11 2.23 2.05 1.12 1.14 1.40 0.93 0.87 0.57 1.18 >20 0.26 0.13 0.32 0.32 0.58 0.66 0.29 0.28 0.23 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.29 >22 0.09 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.06 0.14 0.09 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 >24 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 >26 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 >28 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 10 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.4 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.45 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.30 0.40 0.48 0.51 3.13 2 - 4 1.63 1.10 0.69 0.63 0.80 1.19 1.58 1.82 9.44 4 - 6 3.18 1.99 0.91 0.81 1.09 2.05 2.72 3.01 15.76 6 - 8 4.17 2.50 0.77 0.73 1.21 2.88 3.58 3.12 18.96 8 - 10 3.98 2.43 0.57 0.48 1.00 3.39 4.15 2.75 18.75 10 - 12 2.56 1.69 0.37 0.28 0.63 3.34 4.21 1.95 15.03 12 - 14 1.29 0.79 0.21 0.16 0.41 2.53 3.45 1.03 9.87 14 - 16 0.52 0.26 0.09 0.08 0.24 1.64 2.18 0.39 5.40 16 - 18 0.15 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.83 1.19 0.13 2.51 18 - 20 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.29 0.46 0.03 0.89 20 - 22 * * 0.01 * 0.01 0.06 0.14 0.01 0.23 22 - 24 - * - - * 0.02 0.02 * 0.04 24 - 26 - - - - * 0.01 0.01 - 0.02 26 - 28 - - - - - * * - 28 - 30 - - - - - * * - 30 - 32 ------Total 17.97 11.22 3.99 3.51 5.79 18.63 24.17 14.75 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005% Table 3.5 January joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.64 0.52 0.43 0.34 0.33 0.53 0.63 0.70 4.12 2 - 4 2.27 1.51 0.82 0.59 0.67 1.34 1.97 2.48 11.65 4 - 6 3.91 2.43 1.01 0.69 0.94 2.10 3.18 3.51 17.77 6 - 8 4.55 2.91 0.64 0.54 1.09 3.23 3.45 3.11 19.52 8 - 10 4.15 2.45 0.54 0.17 0.70 3.77 4.17 2.42 18.37 10 - 12 2.55 1.46 0.18 0.17 0.29 2.56 3.72 1.37 12.30 12 - 14 1.22 0.57 0.11 0.06 0.15 1.92 3.51 0.85 8.39 14 - 16 0.41 0.19 0.06 0.03 0.15 1.28 2.23 0.33 4.68 16 - 18 0.12 0.05 * - 0.05 0.73 1.13 0.09 2.17 18 - 20 0.06 0.01 - - 0.02 0.30 0.37 - 0.76 20 - 22 0.01 - - - * 0.04 0.11 - 0.16 22 - 24 - - - - - 0.03 0.02 * 0.05 24 - 26 - - - - - 0.04 - - 0.04 26 - 28 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 19.89 12.10 3.79 2.59 4.39 17.88 24.49 14.86 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 11 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.6 February joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.70 0.56 0.36 0.32 0.33 0.51 0.59 0.65 4.02 2 - 4 2.32 1.60 0.85 0.79 0.97 1.47 2.15 2.18 12.33 4 - 6 3.80 2.86 1.31 0.89 1.31 2.24 3.22 2.96 18.59 6 - 8 4.29 2.94 0.70 0.84 0.94 3.09 3.68 2.60 19.08 8 - 10 3.65 2.83 0.42 0.51 0.66 3.51 3.82 1.83 17.23 10 - 12 2.12 2.42 0.26 0.28 0.37 3.11 3.89 1.15 13.60 12 - 14 1.05 0.81 0.12 0.24 0.20 2.28 3.35 0.68 8.73 14 - 16 0.37 0.14 0.04 0.14 0.18 1.27 1.85 0.21 4.20 16 - 18 0.06 0.06 - 0.07 0.02 0.58 0.81 0.09 1.69 18 - 20 0.02 0.02 - 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.18 - 0.37 20 - 22 - 0.02 - - - 0.02 0.05 - 0.09 22 - 24 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 24 - 26 - - - - - 0.01 * - 0.01 26 - 28 - - - - - 0.01 * - 0.01 28 - 30 ------0.01 - 0.01 30 - 32 ------Total 18.38 14.26 4.06 4.16 5.00 18.16 23.60 12.35 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 3.7 March joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.43 0.48 0.46 0.35 0.30 0.47 0.48 0.67 3.64 2 - 4 1.79 1.12 0.70 0.63 1.05 1.38 1.67 1.97 10.31 4 - 6 3.65 2.13 1.00 0.71 1.03 2.28 2.86 3.26 16.92 6 - 8 4.72 2.85 0.63 0.52 0.99 2.71 3.43 2.70 18.55 8 - 10 4.75 2.56 0.40 0.43 0.91 3.31 3.68 2.32 18.36 10 - 12 2.72 1.95 0.33 0.23 0.57 3.37 3.87 1.75 14.79 12 - 14 1.23 0.69 0.18 0.10 0.31 2.56 3.17 0.97 9.21 14 - 16 0.49 0.22 0.08 0.07 0.14 1.44 2.00 0.36 4.80 16 - 18 0.11 0.07 * 0.06 0.04 0.73 1.13 0.10 2.24 18 - 20 0.03 0.06 * - 0.04 0.25 0.45 0.01 0.84 20 - 22 - 0.02 * - * 0.04 0.19 - 0.25 22 - 24 - * - - - * 0.02 - 0.02 24 - 26 - - - - - * 0.02 - 0.02 26 - 28 - - - - - * * - 28 - 30 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 30 - 32 ------Total 19.92 12.15 3.78 3.10 5.38 18.55 22.97 14.11 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 12 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.8 April joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.20 0.39 0.51 0.47 2.98 2 - 4 1.44 0.91 0.56 0.47 0.66 1.26 1.67 1.81 8.78 4 - 6 3.02 1.76 0.69 0.58 0.96 1.91 3.15 3.54 15.61 6 - 8 4.58 2.56 0.56 0.51 1.10 2.98 3.72 3.13 19.14 8 - 10 4.27 2.00 0.69 0.48 0.86 3.92 4.35 2.62 19.19 10 - 12 2.93 1.03 0.38 0.36 0.60 3.46 4.39 1.96 15.11 12 - 14 1.13 0.54 0.20 0.16 0.36 2.37 3.68 1.08 9.52 14 - 16 0.54 0.24 0.11 0.05 0.15 1.88 2.47 0.47 5.91 16 - 18 0.22 0.09 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.98 1.10 0.17 2.68 18 - 20 0.02 - - 0.02 0.02 0.38 0.33 0.02 0.79 20 - 22 - - - 0.01 * 0.06 0.15 - 0.22 22 - 24 - - - - - 0.05 0.05 - 0.10 24 - 26 ------26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 18.53 9.49 3.56 3.00 4.97 19.64 25.57 15.27 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 3.9 May joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.32 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.26 0.36 0.40 0.35 2.47 2 - 4 1.22 0.84 0.56 0.63 0.68 0.99 1.26 1.45 7.63 4 - 6 2.31 1.72 0.82 0.88 1.02 1.81 2.34 2.90 13.80 6 - 8 3.49 2.02 0.73 0.92 1.15 2.43 3.61 3.51 17.86 8 - 10 3.59 2.17 0.44 0.52 0.89 2.53 4.73 3.64 18.51 10 - 12 2.64 1.27 0.27 0.27 0.80 3.14 4.58 2.72 15.69 12 - 14 1.42 0.67 0.17 0.22 0.88 2.78 3.87 1.53 11.54 14 - 16 0.51 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.48 2.01 2.48 0.65 6.46 16 - 18 0.17 0.08 - 0.04 0.16 1.48 1.79 0.17 3.89 18 - 20 0.02 0.01 - - 0.08 0.63 0.84 0.08 1.66 20 - 22 * - - - 0.04 0.14 0.32 0.01 0.51 22 - 24 - - - - 0.01 * 0.04 - 0.05 24 - 26 ------0.01 - 0.01 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 15.69 9.25 3.27 3.84 6.45 18.30 26.27 17.01 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 13 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.10 June joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.30 0.29 0.21 0.17 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.30 2.23 2 - 4 1.04 0.76 0.63 0.58 0.88 0.73 1.32 1.23 7.17 4 - 6 2.47 1.54 0.80 0.81 1.28 1.70 2.05 2.58 13.23 6 - 8 3.60 2.27 0.95 0.83 1.64 2.80 3.51 2.98 18.58 8 - 10 3.60 2.17 0.60 0.59 1.30 3.71 4.01 3.17 19.15 10 - 12 2.05 1.63 0.27 0.13 0.67 4.42 4.47 2.51 16.15 12 - 14 1.05 0.80 0.23 0.12 0.51 3.44 3.62 1.37 11.14 14 - 16 0.45 0.48 0.06 0.11 0.37 2.43 2.36 0.48 6.74 16 - 18 0.15 0.14 0.06 0.05 0.11 1.20 1.66 0.15 3.52 18 - 20 0.02 0.07 0.03 * 0.04 0.53 0.65 0.05 1.39 20 - 22 * 0.01 0.02 - 0.01 0.20 0.27 0.01 0.52 22 - 24 - - - - 0.02 0.07 0.04 * 0.13 24 - 26 - - - - - * 0.01 - 0.01 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 14.73 10.16 3.86 3.39 7.11 21.55 24.33 14.83 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 3.11 July joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.30 0.31 0.25 0.23 0.29 0.35 0.41 0.39 2 - 4 1.58 1.08 0.69 0.69 0.72 1.03 1.21 1.70 4 - 6 3.13 1.73 0.85 0.87 1.14 1.98 2.54 2.75 6 - 8 3.72 2.36 0.77 0.79 1.50 3.05 3.71 3.58 8 - 10 3.77 2.21 0.82 0.76 1.12 3.49 4.20 3.06 10 - 12 2.28 1.68 0.78 0.47 0.53 3.60 3.83 2.21 12 - 14 1.17 0.99 0.44 0.38 0.37 2.74 3.12 1.13 14 - 16 0.50 0.30 0.32 0.22 0.32 1.64 1.74 0.32 16 - 18 0.17 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.90 1.08 0.16 18 - 20 0.04 - 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.19 0.48 0.03 20 - 22 - - 0.05 * - 0.03 0.10 0.01 22 - 24 - - - - - 0.03 0.05 0.01 24 - 26 - - - - - 0.01 - - 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 16.66 10.73 5.10 4.53 6.14 19.04 22.47 15.35 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 14 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.12 August joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.43 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.27 0.25 0.38 0.40 2.44 2 - 4 1.42 1.02 0.66 0.77 0.77 1.02 1.35 1.71 8.72 4 - 6 3.04 2.01 1.13 0.92 1.33 1.91 2.36 2.56 15.26 6 - 8 4.41 2.43 0.98 0.92 1.54 2.44 3.00 3.18 18.90 8 - 10 3.67 2.69 0.59 0.49 1.47 2.96 3.87 2.89 18.63 10 - 12 2.41 2.21 0.55 0.31 1.19 3.42 4.35 2.08 16.52 12 - 14 1.40 1.58 0.57 0.24 0.73 2.59 2.68 0.89 10.68 14 - 16 0.58 0.56 0.21 0.15 0.35 1.54 1.65 0.37 5.41 16 - 18 0.16 0.19 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.68 0.86 0.15 2.29 18 - 20 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.07 0.39 0.25 0.04 0.87 20 - 22 - 0.01 - - 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.25 22 - 24 - - - - * 0.03 - - 0.03 24 - 26 ------26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 17.54 12.98 5.05 4.13 7.84 17.30 20.88 14.28 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 3.13 September joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.37 0.33 0.27 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.42 0.41 2.70 2 - 4 1.28 1.00 0.57 0.53 0.62 0.92 1.36 1.61 7.89 4 - 6 3.24 1.72 0.86 0.68 0.73 1.61 2.29 2.89 14.02 6 - 8 4.43 2.20 0.91 0.78 0.96 2.13 3.68 3.30 18.39 8 - 10 4.57 2.59 0.79 0.37 1.15 2.72 4.40 3.02 19.61 10 - 12 3.31 2.00 0.43 0.34 0.78 2.70 4.19 2.32 16.07 12 - 14 1.90 0.83 0.17 0.08 0.54 2.37 3.30 1.30 10.49 14 - 16 0.75 0.35 0.11 0.03 0.24 1.78 2.61 0.63 6.50 16 - 18 0.24 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.85 1.46 0.20 2.94 18 - 20 0.10 - - 0.01 0.02 0.32 0.69 0.04 1.18 20 - 22 0.01 - - - 0.01 0.05 0.11 * 0.18 22 - 24 - - - - * 0.02 0.01 - 0.03 24 - 26 - - - - 0.01 * - - 0.01 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------32 - 34 20.20 11.08 4.12 3.13 5.44 15.80 24.52 15.72 100.00 Total 0.37 0.33 0.27 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.42 0.41 2.70 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 15 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.14 October joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.44 0.31 0.24 0.21 0.24 0.32 0.39 0.49 2.64 2 - 4 1.71 0.96 0.66 0.63 0.70 1.05 1.46 1.71 8.88 4 - 6 3.03 1.58 0.82 0.82 1.03 1.93 2.94 2.96 15.11 6 - 8 4.25 1.96 0.73 0.57 1.14 3.17 3.84 3.41 19.07 8 - 10 4.14 1.53 0.64 0.54 0.98 3.57 4.54 3.09 19.03 10 - 12 2.68 1.34 0.53 0.34 0.70 3.42 4.72 2.33 16.06 12 - 14 1.54 0.62 0.12 0.22 0.32 2.28 4.10 0.97 10.17 14 - 16 0.62 0.14 0.01 0.09 0.23 1.33 2.87 0.38 5.67 16 - 18 0.19 0.01 - - 0.09 0.60 1.45 0.10 2.44 18 - 20 0.03 0.03 - - 0.01 0.15 0.55 0.03 0.80 20 - 22 - * - - * 0.01 0.10 * 0.11 22 - 24 - - - - - * * - 24 - 26 - - - - - * - - 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 18.63 8.48 3.75 3.42 5.44 17.83 26.96 15.47 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 3.15 November joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.49 0.30 0.38 0.36 0.33 0.44 0.50 0.58 3.38 2 - 4 1.76 0.92 0.59 0.60 0.97 1.53 1.69 1.90 9.96 4 - 6 3.31 1.82 0.64 0.88 1.08 2.58 2.89 3.04 16.24 6 - 8 3.77 2.29 0.54 0.77 1.45 3.28 3.86 3.00 18.96 8 - 10 3.40 2.28 0.25 0.49 1.01 3.68 4.23 2.57 17.91 10 - 12 2.38 1.33 0.04 0.22 0.44 3.82 4.91 1.71 14.85 12 - 14 1.33 0.63 0.02 0.06 0.30 3.04 3.99 0.98 10.35 14 - 16 0.59 0.10 0.03 - 0.09 1.78 2.44 0.27 5.30 16 - 18 0.12 0.03 0.01 - 0.02 0.78 1.14 0.07 2.17 18 - 20 0.02 - 0.01 - - 0.18 0.48 0.01 0.70 20 - 22 - - 0.01 - - 0.02 0.11 0.01 0.15 22 - 24 - - - - - * 0.01 * 0.01 24 - 26 - - - - - * 0.01 - 0.01 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 17.17 9.70 2.52 3.38 5.69 21.13 26.26 14.14 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 16 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 3.16 December joint probability distribution (%) of wind speed and direction at Site P1.
Wind direction (degT) U 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 2 0.59 0.51 0.46 0.40 0.42 0.52 0.70 0.77 4.37 2 - 4 1.78 1.45 1.04 0.71 0.89 1.52 1.89 2.06 11.34 4 - 6 3.30 2.61 1.06 0.92 1.30 2.51 2.86 3.12 17.68 6 - 8 4.17 3.21 1.02 0.78 1.04 3.29 3.51 2.90 19.92 8 - 10 4.12 3.69 0.62 0.46 0.90 3.52 3.75 2.35 19.41 10 - 12 2.66 2.06 0.39 0.23 0.56 3.10 3.59 1.20 13.79 12 - 14 1.00 0.76 0.12 0.08 0.24 1.95 3.07 0.62 7.84 14 - 16 0.44 0.23 0.02 0.01 0.14 1.26 1.43 0.22 3.75 16 - 18 0.11 0.02 - - * 0.46 0.62 0.09 1.30 18 - 20 0.06 - - - 0.01 0.15 0.17 0.03 0.42 20 - 22 0.03 - - - - 0.02 0.06 * 0.11 22 - 24 ------0.03 - 0.03 24 - 26 ------0.01 - 0.01 26 - 28 ------28 - 30 ------30 - 32 ------Total 18.26 14.54 4.73 3.59 5.50 18.30 21.69 13.36 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Figure 3.1 Annual wind rose plot at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which the winds blow.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 17 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun an n
Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Figure 3.2 Monthly wind rose plot at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which the winds blow.
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Figure 3.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) wind speed (1979 – 2015).
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4. WAVE STATISTICS
Annual and monthly statistics associated with the wave climate at Site P1 are presented in Table 4.1 to Table 4.19. It includes common statistics of total significant wave height (minimum, maximum, mean, percentiles, etc.), significant wave height exceedence probabilities, joint probability distribution of total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy, and persistence non-exceedence probabilities for total significant wave height. Common statistics and exceedence probabilities of significant wave height for both sea and swell components are also provided in this section. The largest significant wave height at Site P1 over the hindcast period is 11.70 m, while the mean annual significant wave height is 3.17 m. The annual 1th and 99th percentile exceedence levels are 1.55 and 6.98 m, respectively. It means that for 1 and 99% of the time the total significant wave height is larger than 1.55 and 6.98 m, respectively, on an annual basis. The persistence non-exceedence probabilities help to support the planning of operational uptime tasks based on wave height limiting thresholds. For example, on average, the total significant wave heights are less than 3.0 m for durations of 12 hours and greater for 28.95% of the time (Table 4.15). Annual and monthly wave roses Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 indicate that waves are predominantly coming from the SW octant.
Regional maps of mean, maximum and mean of annual maximum significant wave height are presented in Figure 4.3.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 20 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.1 Annual and monthly total significant wave height statistics at Site P1.
Total significant wave height statistics (m) (1) Period (01 Jan 1979 - 31 Significant wave height (m) Exceedance Percentile for significant wave height (m) Main (4) Dec 2015) min max mean std p1 p5 p10 p50 p80 p90 p95 p98 p99 Direction(s) Jan 0.93 11.51 2.77 1.00 1.35 1.63 1.80 2.55 3.37 4.03 4.77 5.57 6.22 SW Feb 1.16 11.70 2.86 0.92 1.54 1.78 1.92 2.66 3.45 4.05 4.61 5.38 6.11 SW Mar 1.03 10.01 3.12 1.08 1.61 1.87 2.06 2.88 3.80 4.53 5.34 6.21 6.78 SW Apr 1.25 10.71 3.27 1.15 1.60 1.92 2.12 3.00 4.06 4.82 5.56 6.47 7.07 SW May 1.25 10.01 3.53 1.30 1.76 2.04 2.21 3.24 4.39 5.33 6.25 7.27 7.80 SW Jun 1.19 10.46 3.51 1.30 1.64 1.98 2.19 3.22 4.40 5.28 6.08 7.07 7.91 SW Jul 1.33 10.97 3.34 1.15 1.65 1.94 2.12 3.10 4.14 4.85 5.58 6.50 7.05 SW Aug 1.19 11.15 3.33 1.14 1.66 1.98 2.17 3.09 4.11 4.84 5.58 6.38 7.07 SW Sep 1.41 9.19 3.34 1.17 1.66 1.97 2.17 3.07 4.12 4.96 5.71 6.60 7.25 SW Oct 1.35 8.92 3.25 1.09 1.60 1.91 2.13 3.00 4.03 4.73 5.41 6.24 6.71 SW Nov 1.18 8.59 3.03 1.02 1.60 1.82 1.98 2.79 3.79 4.40 4.99 5.91 6.38 SW Dec 1.12 9.01 2.69 0.87 1.40 1.67 1.82 2.51 3.27 3.80 4.42 5.10 5.67 SW Summer (2) 0.93 11.70 2.96 1.02 1.48 1.76 1.92 2.72 3.63 4.30 4.96 5.85 6.39 SW Winter (3) 1.19 11.15 3.39 1.21 1.66 1.97 2.16 3.12 4.20 5.01 5.80 6.76 7.41 SW Annual 0.93 11.70 3.17 1.14 1.55 1.85 2.03 2.91 3.93 4.68 5.43 6.36 6.98 SW Notes: (1) All statistics derived from hindcast wave data for the period 01 January 1979 to 31 December 2015. (2) Summer: October to March. (3) Winter: April to September. (4) Main directions are those with greater than 15% occurrence and represent directions from which the waves approach.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 21 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.2 Annual and monthly significant swell wave height statistics at Site P1.
Significant swell wave height statistics (m) (1) Period Significant swell wave height (01 Jan 1979 - 31 Exceedance Percentile for significant swell wave height (m) (4) (m) Main Dec 2015) Direction(s) min max mean std p1 p5 p10 p50 p80 p90 p95 p98 p99 Jan 0.55 10.75 2.23 0.91 0.93 1.15 1.32 2.04 2.76 3.34 4.00 4.76 5.39 SW Feb 0.75 10.90 2.34 0.84 1.07 1.33 1.47 2.19 2.87 3.41 3.89 4.61 5.28 SW Mar 0.82 9.33 2.62 0.99 1.22 1.45 1.61 2.41 3.24 3.91 4.63 5.40 6.02 SW Apr 0.75 9.97 2.77 1.07 1.18 1.47 1.67 2.55 3.51 4.21 4.87 5.75 6.29 SW May 0.83 9.26 3.01 1.21 1.21 1.58 1.78 2.76 3.79 4.65 5.53 6.48 7.03 SW Jun 0.96 9.70 2.99 1.22 1.22 1.50 1.74 2.73 3.79 4.60 5.34 6.35 7.14 SW Jul 0.79 10.28 2.84 1.07 1.24 1.52 1.70 2.65 3.56 4.23 4.91 5.77 6.28 SW Aug 0.70 10.44 2.82 1.07 1.23 1.51 1.69 2.61 3.54 4.21 4.91 5.70 6.35 SW Sep 0.92 8.60 2.81 1.10 1.22 1.46 1.66 2.59 3.55 4.30 4.97 5.87 6.49 SW Oct 0.69 8.14 2.73 1.02 1.09 1.42 1.63 2.52 3.46 4.11 4.74 5.47 6.00 SW Nov 0.69 7.71 2.48 0.94 1.05 1.33 1.49 2.29 3.17 3.73 4.26 5.14 5.61 SW Dec 0.62 8.13 2.14 0.80 0.89 1.15 1.30 1.98 2.69 3.16 3.67 4.31 4.80 SW Summer (2) 0.55 10.90 2.43 0.95 1.00 1.28 1.45 2.23 3.05 3.64 4.25 5.09 5.62 SW Winter (3) 0.70 10.44 2.87 1.13 1.21 1.50 1.70 2.65 3.62 4.36 5.10 6.02 6.65 SW Annual 0.55 10.90 2.65 1.07 1.07 1.37 1.55 2.43 3.35 4.03 4.73 5.62 6.23 SW Notes: (1) All statistics derived from hindcast wave data for the period 01 January 1979 to 31 December 2015. (2) Summer: October to March. (3) Winter: April to September. (4) Main directions are those with greater than 15% occurrence and represent directions from which the waves approach.
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Table 4.3 Annual and monthly significant sea wave height statistics at Site P1.
(1) Period Significant sea wave height statistics (m) (01 Jan 1979 - 31 Significant sea wave height (m) Exceedance Percentile for significant sea wave height (m) Main (4) Dec 2015) min max mean std p1 p5 p10 p50 p80 p90 p95 p98 p99 Direction(s) Jan 0.62 4.12 1.61 0.56 0.78 0.95 1.04 1.45 2.05 2.48 2.79 3.05 3.19 N NE Feb 0.63 4.26 1.59 0.54 0.82 0.94 1.03 1.44 2.05 2.42 2.69 2.95 3.09 N NE Mar 0.58 4.09 1.65 0.58 0.82 0.97 1.05 1.49 2.13 2.53 2.81 3.12 3.29 N NE Apr 0.42 3.90 1.69 0.59 0.80 0.97 1.06 1.54 2.20 2.59 2.87 3.12 3.29 N NE May 0.70 3.80 1.80 0.63 0.86 1.01 1.10 1.64 2.36 2.75 3.04 3.28 3.42 N NE Jun 0.65 3.91 1.80 0.62 0.81 1.03 1.12 1.65 2.35 2.74 3.00 3.26 3.43 N NE Jul 0.53 3.95 1.71 0.59 0.85 0.98 1.07 1.56 2.24 2.60 2.88 3.12 3.23 N NE Aug 0.67 3.90 1.72 0.58 0.85 1.00 1.09 1.58 2.23 2.58 2.84 3.09 3.26 N NE Sep 0.57 3.78 1.75 0.58 0.89 1.04 1.12 1.60 2.26 2.65 2.90 3.18 3.32 N NE Oct 0.63 3.64 1.72 0.56 0.90 1.04 1.12 1.58 2.20 2.57 2.82 3.10 3.20 N NE Nov 0.71 3.89 1.69 0.56 0.89 1.02 1.10 1.54 2.19 2.54 2.78 3.05 3.20 N NE Dec 0.57 3.87 1.59 0.51 0.82 0.97 1.07 1.45 1.98 2.36 2.64 2.91 3.10 N NE Summer (2) 0.57 4.26 1.64 0.55 0.83 0.98 1.07 1.49 2.11 2.49 2.76 3.04 3.19 N NE Winter (3) 0.42 3.95 1.75 0.60 0.84 1.00 1.09 1.59 2.27 2.65 2.93 3.18 3.34 N NE Annual 0.42 4.26 1.69 0.58 0.84 0.99 1.08 1.54 2.19 2.57 2.85 3.12 3.27 N NE Notes: (1) All statistics derived from hindcast wave data for the period 01 January 1979 to 31 December 2015. (2) Summer: October to March. (3) Winter: April to September. (4) Main directions are those with greater than 15% occurrence and represent directions from which the waves approach.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 23 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.4 Annual total significant wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1.
Parameter Hs (m) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) 1979 1.23 3.14 1.00 2.17 2.93 4.37 5.13 6.61 9.91 1980 1.29 3.21 1.14 2.13 2.92 4.69 5.45 7.10 11.51 1981 1.31 3.16 1.06 2.09 2.92 4.56 5.25 6.76 9.06 1982 1.47 3.48 1.18 2.22 3.27 4.96 5.92 7.27 9.12 1983 1.42 3.38 1.13 2.25 3.13 4.90 5.66 7.15 9.37 1984 1.25 3.08 1.11 2.04 2.81 4.46 5.35 7.06 8.87 1985 1.12 3.05 1.09 1.95 2.80 4.38 5.06 6.88 9.26 1986 1.48 3.18 1.17 1.96 2.91 4.68 5.41 6.97 10.97 1987 1.36 3.41 1.28 2.10 3.12 5.13 5.95 7.64 10.94 1988 1.25 3.42 1.25 2.16 3.11 5.22 5.91 7.35 9.64 1989 1.39 3.23 1.08 2.16 2.98 4.60 5.39 7.02 8.47 1990 1.35 3.38 1.22 2.11 3.12 4.92 5.72 7.68 10.01 1991 1.38 3.26 1.20 2.16 2.94 4.87 5.77 7.60 10.31 1992 1.43 3.28 1.17 2.13 3.00 4.86 5.56 7.43 9.10 1993 1.32 3.32 1.19 2.10 3.05 4.95 5.60 6.91 10.35 1994 1.16 3.20 1.12 2.03 2.94 4.74 5.40 6.73 7.91 1995 1.44 3.13 1.03 2.07 2.89 4.47 5.13 6.69 9.17 1996 1.18 2.70 0.89 1.76 2.51 3.91 4.56 5.54 6.84 1997 1.22 3.21 1.17 2.04 2.97 4.67 5.56 7.31 9.19 1998 1.42 3.23 1.16 2.02 2.93 4.92 5.63 6.57 9.88 1999 1.19 3.04 1.00 1.95 2.85 4.38 5.00 6.26 7.64 2000 1.18 3.01 1.04 1.94 2.76 4.38 5.05 6.48 8.71 2001 1.03 2.86 1.06 1.76 2.61 4.26 4.99 6.24 8.75 2002 1.24 3.04 1.13 1.90 2.76 4.51 5.26 6.97 9.01 2003 0.93 3.04 1.06 1.95 2.82 4.46 5.21 6.83 7.48 2004 1.32 3.08 1.11 1.95 2.84 4.62 5.27 6.70 11.70 2005 1.17 2.83 1.02 1.74 2.59 4.27 4.85 5.83 7.47 2006 1.15 3.22 1.18 2.01 2.90 4.95 5.69 6.83 8.24 2007 1.44 3.11 1.29 1.96 2.74 4.77 5.94 7.75 10.02 2008 1.54 3.13 1.04 2.11 2.87 4.48 5.09 6.85 8.60 2009 1.42 3.14 1.10 1.98 2.87 4.67 5.27 6.65 9.28 2010 1.49 3.18 1.06 2.09 2.94 4.59 5.27 6.82 9.17 2011 1.18 3.31 1.22 2.13 2.97 5.04 5.96 7.40 8.43 2012 1.42 3.14 1.15 2.05 2.81 4.55 5.49 6.95 10.46 2013 1.05 3.10 1.00 2.05 2.91 4.49 5.06 6.07 7.86 2014 1.40 3.26 1.15 2.07 2.99 4.90 5.64 6.89 11.15 2015 1.64 3.49 1.25 2.24 3.19 5.10 6.01 7.96 10.71 Annual 0.93 3.17 1.14 2.03 2.91 4.68 5.43 6.98 11.70
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Table 4.5 Annual significant swell wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1.
Parameter Hs swell (m) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) 1979 0.82 2.64 0.93 1.69 2.49 3.73 4.44 5.89 9.14 1980 0.94 2.66 1.07 1.61 2.41 4.02 4.74 6.40 10.75 1981 1.03 2.65 0.98 1.63 2.46 3.91 4.56 5.92 8.26 1982 1.17 2.98 1.11 1.76 2.83 4.32 5.22 6.51 8.34 1983 1.18 2.87 1.06 1.73 2.68 4.21 4.97 6.48 8.66 1984 0.83 2.56 1.06 1.50 2.34 3.90 4.64 6.31 8.14 1985 0.83 2.56 1.03 1.48 2.36 3.82 4.49 6.11 8.49 1986 0.77 2.67 1.11 1.51 2.43 4.09 4.76 6.34 10.28 1987 0.95 2.89 1.20 1.65 2.63 4.49 5.26 6.94 10.20 1988 0.86 2.85 1.17 1.63 2.56 4.51 5.14 6.59 8.84 1989 0.91 2.75 1.01 1.74 2.53 4.02 4.76 6.25 7.71 1990 0.79 2.85 1.16 1.67 2.62 4.30 5.02 7.04 9.33 1991 1.13 2.76 1.12 1.71 2.46 4.20 5.12 6.88 9.58 1992 0.69 2.76 1.10 1.68 2.51 4.13 4.88 6.65 8.39 1993 0.91 2.80 1.12 1.63 2.54 4.38 4.89 6.29 9.61 1994 0.84 2.65 1.05 1.53 2.44 4.04 4.70 5.96 7.24 1995 0.77 2.58 0.96 1.62 2.38 3.79 4.45 5.89 8.45 1996 0.62 2.18 0.82 1.31 2.01 3.25 3.83 4.74 6.22 1997 0.88 2.67 1.09 1.54 2.45 4.03 4.79 6.54 8.60 1998 0.86 2.69 1.08 1.53 2.42 4.22 4.91 5.79 9.06 1999 0.70 2.53 0.95 1.47 2.36 3.78 4.37 5.59 6.90 2000 0.72 2.48 0.96 1.50 2.26 3.71 4.34 5.67 7.97 2001 0.62 2.34 0.97 1.33 2.17 3.59 4.26 5.38 7.94 2002 0.83 2.46 1.03 1.40 2.23 3.78 4.44 6.12 8.13 2003 0.55 2.51 0.99 1.48 2.30 3.81 4.54 6.05 6.77 2004 0.80 2.53 1.03 1.48 2.30 3.92 4.54 5.82 10.90 2005 0.69 2.31 0.96 1.24 2.13 3.66 4.19 5.17 6.68 2006 0.66 2.68 1.10 1.54 2.43 4.27 4.97 6.10 7.38 2007 0.82 2.57 1.22 1.47 2.27 4.04 5.15 6.99 9.32 2008 1.10 2.61 0.99 1.61 2.39 3.83 4.45 6.12 7.90 2009 0.95 2.61 1.03 1.53 2.35 4.00 4.58 5.88 8.52 2010 0.80 2.68 0.99 1.66 2.49 3.93 4.55 6.06 8.38 2011 0.98 2.80 1.13 1.66 2.53 4.37 5.18 6.60 7.60 2012 1.01 2.63 1.07 1.60 2.35 3.98 4.74 6.32 9.70 2013 0.78 2.61 0.92 1.58 2.45 3.87 4.35 5.34 7.19 2014 1.08 2.74 1.07 1.64 2.52 4.20 4.84 6.20 10.44 2015 0.92 2.97 1.16 1.78 2.72 4.39 5.29 7.15 9.97 Annual 0.55 2.65 1.07 1.55 2.43 4.03 4.73 6.23 10.90
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 25 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.6 Annual significant sea wave height statistics (1979-2015) at Site P1.
Parameter Hs sea (m) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) 1979 0.66 1.66 0.53 1.12 1.52 2.43 2.72 3.19 3.81 1980 0.78 1.74 0.58 1.12 1.59 2.63 2.88 3.32 4.12 1981 0.69 1.68 0.57 1.09 1.51 2.54 2.79 3.27 3.75 1982 0.77 1.73 0.59 1.07 1.59 2.61 2.93 3.33 3.73 1983 0.73 1.73 0.59 1.11 1.58 2.69 2.89 3.26 3.57 1984 0.81 1.65 0.55 1.11 1.48 2.49 2.75 3.25 3.55 1985 0.42 1.61 0.54 1.05 1.47 2.42 2.67 3.19 3.78 1986 0.70 1.66 0.58 1.05 1.50 2.56 2.87 3.30 3.83 1987 0.63 1.77 0.62 1.07 1.63 2.65 2.94 3.39 3.95 1988 0.76 1.84 0.61 1.17 1.70 2.77 3.01 3.35 3.84 1989 0.83 1.64 0.54 1.07 1.52 2.46 2.79 3.23 3.56 1990 0.63 1.75 0.59 1.11 1.61 2.63 2.92 3.36 3.64 1991 0.76 1.69 0.60 1.07 1.51 2.65 2.92 3.32 3.80 1992 0.71 1.72 0.58 1.12 1.57 2.58 2.88 3.29 3.62 1993 0.79 1.73 0.59 1.08 1.59 2.62 2.87 3.16 3.84 1994 0.70 1.76 0.57 1.12 1.62 2.64 2.85 3.19 3.50 1995 0.84 1.71 0.56 1.11 1.57 2.53 2.78 3.22 3.78 1996 0.68 1.55 0.51 1.03 1.40 2.34 2.62 3.02 3.37 1997 0.72 1.73 0.59 1.08 1.61 2.59 2.91 3.33 3.89 1998 0.71 1.75 0.60 1.10 1.58 2.69 2.92 3.30 3.93 1999 0.75 1.64 0.53 1.06 1.51 2.43 2.76 3.15 3.48 2000 0.78 1.67 0.56 1.06 1.54 2.50 2.77 3.25 3.73 2001 0.53 1.59 0.57 1.00 1.45 2.47 2.76 3.24 3.67 2002 0.78 1.74 0.61 1.06 1.57 2.66 2.88 3.33 3.87 2003 0.62 1.66 0.57 1.06 1.52 2.52 2.79 3.17 3.58 2004 0.66 1.71 0.60 1.06 1.55 2.59 2.87 3.32 4.26 2005 0.65 1.58 0.54 0.99 1.45 2.43 2.67 2.99 3.36 2006 0.67 1.73 0.59 1.08 1.60 2.62 2.88 3.28 3.66 2007 0.75 1.69 0.61 1.08 1.51 2.62 2.99 3.44 3.75 2008 0.81 1.67 0.53 1.13 1.50 2.48 2.73 3.17 3.55 2009 0.72 1.70 0.57 1.09 1.55 2.59 2.82 3.21 3.67 2010 0.71 1.67 0.58 1.06 1.51 2.56 2.83 3.22 3.72 2011 0.57 1.72 0.62 1.12 1.52 2.76 3.04 3.41 3.65 2012 0.71 1.65 0.58 1.04 1.50 2.49 2.81 3.24 3.91 2013 0.57 1.64 0.54 1.09 1.48 2.47 2.71 3.10 3.45 2014 0.65 1.73 0.61 1.08 1.56 2.67 2.92 3.29 3.90 2015 0.79 1.79 0.62 1.08 1.66 2.71 2.98 3.45 3.90 Annual 0.42 1.69 0.58 1.08 1.54 2.57 2.85 3.27 4.26
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 26 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.7 Monthly and annual total significant wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1.
Hs (m) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >1 99.92 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.99 >1.5 97.21 99.44 99.67 99.43 99.86 99.50 99.61 99.61 99.64 99.50 99.48 97.95 99.24 >2 80.80 86.58 91.55 93.33 95.86 94.74 93.59 94.58 94.38 93.32 89.19 81.21 90.77 >2.5 52.79 59.34 69.80 73.39 78.61 78.87 76.14 76.65 76.68 74.65 64.73 50.51 69.38 >3 30.10 33.53 44.13 50.11 58.95 59.18 54.50 53.49 52.85 50.10 40.77 27.32 46.30 >3.5 17.41 18.72 26.78 31.89 40.81 39.86 35.53 34.90 33.77 32.68 26.17 14.72 29.48 >4 10.35 10.68 16.53 21.11 27.30 27.14 22.55 21.75 22.18 20.61 15.87 7.90 18.69 >4.5 6.60 5.79 10.33 13.50 18.47 18.41 13.71 14.11 14.71 12.65 8.98 4.61 11.85 >5 3.89 3.05 6.64 8.60 12.72 12.57 8.86 8.48 9.65 7.75 4.97 2.32 7.47 >5.5 2.16 1.78 4.27 5.39 8.91 8.21 5.45 5.37 6.16 4.61 2.92 1.28 4.72 >6 1.29 1.11 2.64 3.18 6.08 5.38 3.37 3.20 3.83 2.66 1.76 0.62 2.93 >6.5 0.72 0.60 1.42 1.95 4.09 3.41 2.01 1.79 2.27 1.37 0.83 0.24 1.73 >7 0.36 0.29 0.80 1.05 2.69 2.09 1.05 1.05 1.26 0.70 0.33 0.09 0.98 >7.5 0.20 0.11 0.41 0.64 1.46 1.42 0.58 0.66 0.68 0.31 0.14 0.08 0.56 >8 0.13 0.06 0.20 0.35 0.77 0.89 0.27 0.44 0.28 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.31 >8.5 0.12 0.05 0.15 0.18 0.34 0.56 0.16 0.25 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.17 >9 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.34 0.13 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 >9.5 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.17 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 >10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 >10.5 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 >11 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 >11.5 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 27 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.8 Monthly and annual significant swell wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1.
Hs (m) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >1 98.16 99.38 99.81 99.66 99.73 99.89 99.71 99.86 99.86 99.46 99.31 97.72 99.38 >1.5 82.02 88.65 93.59 94.14 96.31 94.92 95.38 95.38 94.14 93.40 89.66 80.86 91.54 >2 52.39 61.33 72.70 75.81 82.08 80.78 78.69 78.80 76.72 76.18 65.05 48.90 70.82 >2.5 28.17 33.55 45.34 52.11 60.47 59.79 56.09 54.89 54.59 50.95 40.24 25.64 46.87 >3 14.84 16.54 26.16 31.86 40.51 39.38 36.31 34.45 33.57 31.89 24.18 12.93 28.60 >3.5 8.41 8.76 15.01 20.30 25.61 25.86 21.09 20.85 20.82 19.01 13.38 6.23 17.14 >4 5.00 4.32 9.10 12.02 16.80 16.80 12.33 12.31 13.37 11.13 6.79 3.18 10.29 >4.5 2.72 2.17 5.69 7.32 11.26 10.88 7.59 7.52 8.13 6.43 3.57 1.57 6.25 >5 1.58 1.41 3.44 4.26 7.61 7.00 4.53 4.49 4.85 3.65 2.27 0.78 3.83 >5.5 0.87 0.78 1.80 2.64 5.15 4.34 2.62 2.48 3.05 1.96 1.11 0.29 2.26 >6 0.44 0.47 1.02 1.41 3.43 2.76 1.50 1.42 1.71 1.00 0.52 0.10 1.32 >6.5 0.26 0.13 0.50 0.81 1.96 1.77 0.80 0.88 0.99 0.46 0.18 0.08 0.74 >7 0.15 0.07 0.28 0.45 1.04 1.14 0.39 0.54 0.45 0.19 0.12 0.05 0.41 >7.5 0.13 0.05 0.15 0.24 0.57 0.71 0.24 0.36 0.20 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.23 >8 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.14 0.20 0.45 0.14 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.12 >8.5 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.24 0.09 0.09 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 >9 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.15 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 >9.5 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 >10 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 >10.5 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 28 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.9 Monthly and annual significant sea wave height exceedence probabilities (%) at Site P1.
Hs (m) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.92 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.99 >1 92.43 92.27 93.32 93.56 95.31 95.87 94.19 94.95 96.58 96.62 95.78 93.77 94.56 >1.5 46.43 45.89 49.48 52.98 59.49 60.53 54.09 55.46 57.85 56.29 53.12 45.25 53.09 >2 21.43 21.83 24.34 26.97 32.99 32.98 27.75 29.08 29.00 27.40 26.79 19.37 26.67 >2.5 9.74 8.19 10.63 12.24 15.88 15.62 12.24 11.84 13.61 11.65 11.00 7.49 11.69 >3 2.56 1.64 2.91 3.18 5.57 5.00 3.41 3.00 3.83 2.91 2.42 1.39 3.16 >3.5 0.21 0.12 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.72 0.27 0.26 0.17 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.26 >4 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 29 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.10 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1.
Wave direction (degT)
337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Hs (m) Total -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 0.5 ------0.5 - 1 - - * - - * - - 1 - 1.5 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.63 * * 0.77 1.5 - 2 0.03 0.39 0.28 0.33 0.71 6.70 0.02 0.01 8.47 2 - 2.5 0.11 1.23 0.77 0.78 1.73 16.64 0.11 0.02 21.39 2.5 - 3 0.17 1.37 0.84 0.77 1.65 18.06 0.18 0.04 23.08 3 - 3.5 0.15 0.98 0.45 0.60 1.23 13.16 0.21 0.04 16.82 3.5 - 4 0.08 0.62 0.24 0.30 0.58 8.77 0.17 0.02 10.78 4 - 4.5 0.03 0.32 0.11 0.13 0.35 5.76 0.13 0.01 6.84 4.5 - 5 0.01 0.14 0.06 0.06 0.22 3.78 0.08 * 4.35 5 - 5.5 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.10 2.47 0.06 * 2.75 5.5 – 6 * 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.09 1.61 0.03 * 1.78 6 - 6.5 * 0.02 * * 0.03 1.14 0.02 - 1.21 6.5 – 7 - 0.01 0.01 * 0.01 0.71 0.01 - 0.75 7 - 7.5 - * - - 0.01 0.41 * - 0.42 7.5 - 8 - - * - * 0.24 * - 0.24 8 - 8.5 - - * - * 0.13 * - 0.13 8.5 - 9 - - * - - 0.08 * - 0.08 9 - 9.5 - - - - - 0.04 * - 0.04 9.5 - 10 - - - - - 0.02 * - 0.02 10 - 10.5 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 10.5 - 11 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 11 - 11.5 - - - - - * - - 11.5 - 12 - - - - - * - - Total 0.60 5.16 2.83 3.05 6.77 80.37 1.02 0.14 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 30 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.11 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1.
Wave direction (degT)
337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Hs (m) Total -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 0.5 ------0.5 - 1 - - 0.01 - - 0.02 - - 0.03 1 - 1.5 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.16 1.48 0.01 - 1.81 1.5 - 2 0.05 0.77 0.63 0.50 1.37 12.02 0.06 0.01 15.41 2 - 2.5 0.19 2.09 0.98 0.94 1.95 22.21 0.29 0.04 28.69 2.5 - 3 0.27 1.81 0.61 0.64 1.28 18.82 0.34 0.07 23.84 3 - 3.5 0.18 0.86 0.31 0.40 0.61 10.55 0.36 0.05 13.32 3.5 - 4 0.10 0.40 0.06 0.20 0.32 5.84 0.34 0.03 7.29 4 - 4.5 0.03 0.15 0.01 0.04 0.16 3.37 0.18 0.01 3.95 4.5 - 5 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.03 0.10 2.20 0.13 0.01 2.58 5 - 5.5 * 0.03 - 0.01 0.04 1.19 0.07 - 1.34 5.5 – 6 0.01 0.01 - 0.01 0.06 0.63 0.03 - 0.75 6 - 6.5 - 0.01 - - 0.01 0.45 0.02 - 0.49 6.5 – 7 - - - - - 0.26 0.01 - 0.27 7 - 7.5 - 0.01 - - - 0.10 * - 0.11 7.5 - 8 - - - - - 0.04 0.01 - 0.05 8 - 8.5 - - - - - 0.02 - - 0.02 8.5 - 9 - - - - - 0.02 - - 0.02 9 - 9.5 - - - - - * * - 9.5 - 10 - - - - - 0.01 * - 0.01 10 - 10.5 - - - - - * - - 10.5 - 11 - - - - - * - - 11 - 11.5 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 11.5 - 12 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 Total 0.87 6.24 2.66 2.85 6.06 79.25 1.85 0.22 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 31 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.12 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1.
Wave direction (degT)
337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Hs (m) Total -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 0.5 ------0.5 - 1 ------1 - 1.5 - - 0.01 * 0.02 0.31 - - 0.34 1.5 - 2 0.01 0.11 0.16 0.12 0.66 5.00 0.01 * 6.07 2 - 2.5 0.07 0.88 0.58 0.44 1.73 15.92 0.01 0.01 19.64 2.5 - 3 0.08 1.01 0.79 0.61 1.82 18.42 0.11 0.02 22.86 3 - 3.5 0.13 0.91 0.39 0.42 1.46 14.39 0.16 0.03 17.89 3.5 - 4 0.07 0.55 0.07 0.22 0.74 9.72 0.12 0.02 11.51 4 - 4.5 0.03 0.33 0.04 0.14 0.44 6.46 0.10 * 7.54 4.5 - 5 0.01 0.16 0.04 0.05 0.24 4.23 0.05 0.01 4.79 5 - 5.5 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.12 2.81 0.04 * 3.13 5.5 – 6 - 0.04 - 0.03 0.11 2.01 0.04 * 2.23 6 - 6.5 * 0.02 - 0.01 0.05 1.39 0.01 - 1.48 6.5 – 7 - 0.01 - - 0.02 0.94 * - 0.97 7 - 7.5 - 0.01 - - 0.02 0.64 * - 0.67 7.5 - 8 - - - - * 0.40 - - 0.40 8 - 8.5 - - - - - 0.22 - - 0.22 8.5 - 9 - - - - - 0.14 * - 0.14 9 - 9.5 - - - - - 0.04 - - 0.04 9.5 - 10 - - - - - 0.03 - - 0.03 10 - 10.5 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 10.5 - 11 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 11 - 11.5 ------11.5 - 12 ------Total 0.41 4.10 2.11 2.09 7.43 83.09 0.65 0.09 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 32 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.13 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1.
Wave direction (degT)
337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Hs (m) Total -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 0.5 ------0.5 - 1 ------1 - 1.5 - - - 0.04 0.03 0.35 - - 0.42 1.5 - 2 * 0.29 0.11 0.30 0.46 4.10 * - 5.26 2 - 2.5 0.04 0.87 0.86 1.13 2.09 12.04 0.05 0.01 17.09 2.5 - 3 0.09 1.47 1.27 1.30 2.39 14.89 0.09 0.02 21.52 3 - 3.5 0.09 1.42 0.75 1.12 2.12 13.33 0.09 0.04 18.96 3.5 - 4 0.07 1.09 0.69 0.62 1.01 9.39 0.07 0.01 12.95 4 - 4.5 0.03 0.50 0.35 0.27 0.61 6.58 0.05 * 8.39 4.5 - 5 - 0.24 0.20 0.15 0.44 4.36 0.05 - 5.44 5 - 5.5 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.05 0.21 3.13 0.03 - 3.62 5.5 – 6 - 0.04 0.08 0.02 0.15 2.06 0.01 - 2.36 6 - 6.5 - 0.02 0.01 - 0.04 1.50 0.01 - 1.58 6.5 – 7 - 0.01 0.02 * 0.01 0.93 0.02 - 0.99 7 - 7.5 - - - - 0.01 0.50 * - 0.51 7.5 - 8 - - 0.01 - 0.01 0.33 - - 0.35 8 - 8.5 - - 0.01 - 0.01 0.18 - - 0.20 8.5 - 9 - - * - - 0.13 - - 0.13 9 - 9.5 - - - - - 0.10 - - 0.10 9.5 - 10 - - - - - 0.05 - - 0.05 10 - 10.5 - - - - - 0.03 - - 0.03 10.5 - 11 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 11 - 11.5 - - - - - * - - 11.5 - 12 ------Total 0.33 6.04 4.46 5.00 9.59 73.99 0.47 0.08 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 33 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.14 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of the total significant wave height and mean wave direction at peak energy at Site P1.
Wave direction (degT)
337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Hs (m) Total -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0 - 0.5 ------0.5 - 1 ------1 - 1.5 - 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.37 - * 0.45 1.5 - 2 0.06 0.38 0.22 0.39 0.35 5.79 0.01 0.02 7.22 2 - 2.5 0.14 1.10 0.67 0.62 1.13 16.50 0.08 0.02 20.26 2.5 - 3 0.25 1.18 0.68 0.55 1.11 20.16 0.17 0.03 24.13 3 - 3.5 0.22 0.74 0.33 0.47 0.70 14.32 0.22 0.04 17.04 3.5 - 4 0.07 0.43 0.14 0.14 0.26 10.11 0.16 0.01 11.32 4 - 4.5 0.04 0.29 0.05 0.05 0.18 6.60 0.21 0.02 7.44 4.5 - 5 0.01 0.09 * 0.01 0.11 4.32 0.10 - 4.64 5 - 5.5 * 0.02 * 0.02 0.04 2.72 0.08 - 2.88 5.5 – 6 - 0.01 - - 0.03 1.74 0.03 - 1.81 6 - 6.5 - 0.02 - - 0.01 1.20 0.03 - 1.26 6.5 – 7 - * - - 0.01 0.70 0.02 - 0.73 7 - 7.5 - - - - 0.01 0.38 * - 0.39 7.5 - 8 - - - - 0.01 0.19 0.01 - 0.21 8 - 8.5 - - - - * 0.10 * - 0.10 8.5 - 9 - - - - - 0.04 * - 0.04 9 - 9.5 - - - - - 0.01 - - 0.01 9.5 - 10 ------10 - 10.5 ------10.5 - 11 ------11 - 11.5 ------11.5 - 12 ------Total 0.79 4.27 2.11 2.26 3.99 85.25 1.12 0.14 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 34 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.15 Annual persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
Duration (hours) Hs (m) > 6 > 12 > 18 > 24 > 30 > 36 > 42 > 48 > 54 > 60 > 66 > 72 <= 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.5 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.0 0.72 0.63 0.53 0.43 0.35 0.29 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.05 <= 2.5 8.95 8.23 7.30 6.47 5.63 5.05 4.35 3.71 3.10 2.62 2.23 1.92 <= 3.0 30.16 28.95 27.35 25.58 24.02 22.15 20.68 19.05 17.85 16.54 15.27 13.97 <= 3.5 53.29 52.32 51.11 49.57 48.02 46.03 44.46 42.72 41.32 39.50 37.90 36.53 <= 4.0 70.23 69.59 68.60 67.46 66.40 65.16 64.00 62.57 61.23 59.75 58.53 57.40 <= 4.5 81.09 80.64 80.07 79.51 78.76 77.98 77.12 76.30 75.42 74.36 73.36 72.37 <= 5.0 88.02 87.68 87.28 86.80 86.42 85.90 85.49 85.02 84.57 83.97 83.32 82.60 <= 5.5 92.40 92.23 92.01 91.75 91.51 91.17 90.95 90.66 90.34 90.13 89.75 89.45 <= 6.0 95.20 95.08 94.93 94.69 94.57 94.46 94.24 94.05 93.96 93.76 93.54 93.47 <= 6.5 97.01 96.93 96.87 96.77 96.65 96.55 96.45 96.31 96.20 96.11 95.97 95.88 <= 7.0 98.24 98.20 98.15 98.06 97.98 97.91 97.85 97.78 97.70 97.64 97.62 97.49 <= 7.5 99.01 98.97 98.93 98.88 98.87 98.84 98.80 98.75 98.74 98.67 98.67 98.67 <= 8.0 99.43 99.43 99.42 99.40 99.38 99.33 99.30 99.28 99.27 99.23 99.23 99.23 <= 8.5 99.69 99.68 99.68 99.68 99.68 99.67 99.67 99.66 99.66 99.66 99.62 99.62 <= 9.0 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.81 99.80 99.80 99.80 99.80 99.80 <= 9.5 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 <= 10.0 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 <= 10.5 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 <= 11.0 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 11.5 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 12.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 35 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.16 Summer persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
Duration (hours) Hs (m) > 6 > 12 > 18 > 24 > 30 > 36 > 42 > 48 > 54 > 60 > 66 > 72 <= 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.5 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.0 1.77 1.56 1.36 1.16 0.95 0.73 0.48 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.21 <= 2.5 16.82 15.53 14.04 12.69 11.13 10.01 9.00 7.90 6.78 5.69 5.05 4.61 <= 3.0 45.51 44.03 42.13 39.64 37.54 35.40 33.42 31.05 30.01 27.89 26.51 24.51 <= 3.5 69.35 68.59 67.64 66.30 64.71 62.56 61.10 59.19 58.02 55.45 54.39 52.81 <= 4.0 82.89 82.31 81.60 80.48 79.66 78.88 77.97 77.04 75.98 74.89 73.60 72.63 <= 4.5 90.24 89.96 89.55 89.21 88.71 88.20 87.70 87.01 86.56 86.04 85.00 84.30 <= 5.0 94.26 94.17 93.90 93.71 93.46 92.95 92.55 92.14 91.75 91.39 90.99 90.28 <= 5.5 96.86 96.76 96.74 96.63 96.56 96.47 96.17 95.93 95.60 95.60 95.37 95.19 <= 6.0 98.25 98.24 98.20 98.14 98.07 98.07 97.97 97.85 97.72 97.64 97.64 97.46 <= 6.5 99.00 98.99 98.99 98.96 98.96 98.96 98.91 98.79 98.79 98.65 98.65 98.65 <= 7.0 99.48 99.47 99.47 99.47 99.47 99.47 99.42 99.36 99.36 99.36 99.28 99.28 <= 7.5 99.75 99.73 99.73 99.73 99.73 99.73 99.73 99.62 99.62 99.62 99.62 99.62 <= 8.0 99.87 99.87 99.85 99.85 99.85 99.85 99.85 99.79 99.79 99.79 99.79 99.79 <= 8.5 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 <= 9.0 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 <= 9.5 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 <= 10.0 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 <= 10.5 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 99.97 <= 11.0 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 <= 11.5 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 99.98 <= 12.0 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 36 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.17 Autumn persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
Duration (hours) Hs (m) > 6 > 12 > 18 > 24 > 30 > 36 > 42 > 48 > 54 > 60 > 66 > 72 <= 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.0 0.32 0.28 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.12 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.5 6.20 5.72 4.96 4.20 3.62 3.20 2.51 2.12 1.92 1.63 1.32 1.06 <= 3.0 25.58 24.21 22.70 20.93 19.58 17.61 16.27 15.20 14.17 13.11 11.92 11.06 <= 3.5 48.58 47.61 46.21 44.23 42.73 40.36 38.81 36.97 35.47 33.75 32.17 31.06 <= 4.0 66.53 65.77 64.72 63.40 62.30 60.79 59.21 57.16 55.81 54.17 53.39 52.18 <= 4.5 78.12 77.57 76.98 76.44 75.78 74.56 73.47 72.43 71.34 69.84 68.89 67.78 <= 5.0 85.73 85.27 84.74 84.31 83.93 83.24 82.99 82.14 81.44 80.57 79.61 78.92 <= 5.5 90.48 90.21 89.84 89.48 89.17 88.87 88.58 88.42 87.91 87.49 86.86 86.34 <= 6.0 93.67 93.47 93.22 92.75 92.52 92.30 91.96 91.68 91.62 91.19 90.63 90.54 <= 6.5 95.95 95.83 95.73 95.52 95.24 95.03 94.79 94.52 94.33 94.26 93.94 93.86 <= 7.0 97.47 97.40 97.35 97.12 96.95 96.78 96.63 96.34 96.28 96.13 96.05 95.71 <= 7.5 98.45 98.39 98.37 98.29 98.25 98.17 97.98 97.75 97.69 97.54 97.46 97.37 <= 8.0 99.15 99.13 99.11 99.11 99.07 99.03 98.88 98.71 98.58 98.51 98.51 98.51 <= 8.5 99.56 99.55 99.55 99.55 99.55 99.55 99.55 99.49 99.37 99.30 99.14 99.14 <= 9.0 99.77 99.77 99.75 99.75 99.75 99.75 99.75 99.70 99.70 99.63 99.63 99.63 <= 9.5 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 <= 10.0 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 <= 10.5 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 11.0 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 11.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 37 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.18 Winter persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
Duration (hours) Hs (m) > 6 > 12 > 18 > 24 > 30 > 36 > 42 > 48 > 54 > 60 > 66 > 72 <= 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.0 0.41 0.35 0.33 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 <= 2.5 5.51 4.93 4.31 3.79 3.35 3.00 2.70 2.30 1.65 1.51 1.27 0.93 <= 3.0 22.39 21.38 19.85 18.47 17.19 15.75 14.35 13.11 11.50 10.64 9.93 8.73 <= 3.5 43.92 42.93 41.70 40.53 38.93 36.75 34.94 33.17 31.36 29.43 27.30 25.65 <= 4.0 62.96 62.34 61.33 60.07 58.74 57.07 56.03 55.06 53.52 51.44 49.40 47.77 <= 4.5 75.98 75.57 74.92 74.17 73.13 72.34 71.50 70.54 69.38 68.37 67.02 65.89 <= 5.0 84.45 84.11 83.60 82.80 82.23 81.60 81.10 80.81 80.10 79.33 78.54 77.67 <= 5.5 89.89 89.66 89.43 89.03 88.61 88.03 87.68 87.18 86.92 86.50 86.03 85.69 <= 6.0 93.57 93.43 93.27 92.91 92.77 92.56 92.37 91.97 91.71 91.41 90.95 90.78 <= 6.5 95.93 95.77 95.71 95.62 95.42 95.28 95.09 94.86 94.73 94.59 94.11 93.94 <= 7.0 97.55 97.50 97.36 97.30 97.17 97.08 96.93 96.81 96.68 96.61 96.61 96.35 <= 7.5 98.60 98.51 98.47 98.38 98.35 98.35 98.35 98.23 98.23 98.23 98.23 98.23 <= 8.0 99.11 99.08 99.06 99.00 99.00 98.92 98.92 98.92 98.92 98.85 98.85 98.85 <= 8.5 99.45 99.43 99.43 99.43 99.43 99.39 99.39 99.39 99.39 99.39 99.39 99.39 <= 9.0 99.67 99.67 99.67 99.67 99.67 99.67 99.62 99.62 99.62 99.62 99.62 99.62 <= 9.5 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.81 <= 10.0 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 99.91 <= 10.5 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 99.96 <= 11.0 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 11.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 38 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 4.19 Spring persistence non-exceedence (%) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
Duration (hours) Hs (m) > 6 > 12 > 18 > 24 > 30 > 36 > 42 > 48 > 54 > 60 > 66 > 72 <= 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 1.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.0 0.40 0.33 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 <= 2.5 7.37 6.71 5.90 5.22 4.44 3.97 3.01 2.38 1.92 1.43 1.11 1.02 <= 3.0 27.32 26.22 24.69 22.97 21.31 19.38 17.96 16.00 14.77 13.39 11.55 10.58 <= 3.5 51.52 50.25 48.80 46.93 45.09 43.51 41.93 40.38 38.62 37.32 35.73 34.42 <= 4.0 68.72 67.93 66.58 65.50 64.31 62.95 61.70 59.75 58.19 56.66 55.32 54.27 <= 4.5 80.10 79.47 78.71 77.88 76.93 75.74 74.49 73.49 72.51 71.00 70.29 68.90 <= 5.0 87.75 87.18 86.81 86.15 85.62 84.98 84.18 83.67 83.03 82.30 81.98 80.95 <= 5.5 92.42 92.23 91.91 91.63 91.39 90.78 90.48 89.97 89.45 89.02 88.46 87.93 <= 6.0 95.37 95.18 94.96 94.76 94.55 94.55 94.10 93.81 93.69 93.54 93.30 93.21 <= 6.5 97.17 97.12 96.98 96.88 96.71 96.67 96.61 96.38 96.13 95.91 95.83 95.48 <= 7.0 98.48 98.43 98.39 98.28 98.17 98.09 98.04 97.98 97.79 97.64 97.64 97.56 <= 7.5 99.24 99.24 99.15 99.10 99.10 99.02 98.97 98.97 98.97 98.83 98.83 98.83 <= 8.0 99.61 99.61 99.61 99.59 99.55 99.51 99.51 99.51 99.51 99.51 99.51 99.51 <= 8.5 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 99.83 <= 9.0 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 99.94 <= 9.5 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 99.99 <= 10.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 39 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Figure 4.1 Annual wave rose plot for the total significant wave height at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which waves approach.
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 40 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun an n
Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Figure 4.2 Monthly wave rose plot for the total significant wave height at Site P1. Sectors indicate the direction from which waves approach
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 41 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Figure 4.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) significant wave height (1979 – 2015).
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 42 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
5. CURRENT STATISTICS
Annual and monthly statistics associated with the non-tidal current flows (at 10, 500 and 1000 m below sea surface) at Site P1 are provided in Table 5.1 to Table 5.25. It includes common statistics of current speed (minimum, maximum, mean, percentiles,etc.) at 10, 500 and 1000 m, current speed exceedence probabilities, joint probability distribution of current speed and current direction, and persistence non-exceedence probabilities for current speed. The highest non-tidal current speed at 10 m below surface in the hindcast was 0.97 m/s, occurring in December 1982, and the typical monthly maximum current speeds are in the range 0.50-1 m/s. The annual mean non-tidal surface current speed is 0.18 m/s. Annual and monthly current rose plots in Figure 5.1 to Figure 5.6 indicate the predominance of current going to the N-NNE sectors along the whole water column. Note that at 10 m below sea surface, current flows exhibit a broader direction range (with mainly current going to the NE quadrants).
Regional maps of mean, maximum and mean of annual maximum non- tidal current speed at 10, 500 and 1000 m below sea surface (bss) are presented in Figure 5.7, Figure 5.8 and Figure 5.9, respectively.
The tidal velocities are relatively low, with the depth-averaged mean spring flows reaching only 0.11 m/s. The tidal ellipse is aligned SW-NE (Table 5.25, Figure 5.10). Regional maps of mean, maximum and mean of annual maximum depth-averaged tidal current speed at Site P1 are provided in Figure 5.11.
Table 5.1 Monthly and annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd10 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) January 0.00 0.25 0.14 0.09 0.23 0.44 0.51 0.65 0.86 February 0.00 0.23 0.14 0.07 0.21 0.41 0.49 0.64 0.90 March 0.00 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.19 0.37 0.45 0.61 0.96 April 0.00 0.18 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.30 0.36 0.48 0.74 May 0.00 0.16 0.08 0.06 0.15 0.27 0.31 0.39 0.68 June 0.00 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.12 0.24 0.28 0.37 0.62 July 0.00 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.24 0.32 0.53 August 0.00 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.21 0.25 0.32 0.52 September 0.00 0.14 0.08 0.05 0.13 0.25 0.29 0.37 0.51 October 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.07 0.18 0.34 0.39 0.50 0.65 November 0.00 0.21 0.11 0.08 0.20 0.36 0.41 0.51 0.77 December 0.00 0.23 0.13 0.08 0.21 0.39 0.47 0.61 0.97 Annual 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.16 0.33 0.40 0.55 0.97
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 43 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.2 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd10 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) 1980 0.01 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.17 0.36 0.46 0.65 0.96 1981 0.00 0.18 0.13 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.44 0.67 0.90 1982 0.00 0.18 0.10 0.06 0.17 0.33 0.37 0.49 0.63 1983 0.00 0.18 0.12 0.05 0.15 0.33 0.40 0.56 0.97 1984 0.00 0.21 0.13 0.07 0.19 0.37 0.44 0.60 0.82 1985 0.00 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.16 0.34 0.45 0.61 0.86 1986 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.16 0.34 0.41 0.54 0.67 1987 0.00 0.20 0.14 0.05 0.17 0.40 0.48 0.62 0.77 1988 0.00 0.19 0.11 0.07 0.18 0.34 0.39 0.48 0.64 1989 0.00 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.17 0.38 0.45 0.60 0.83 1990 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.05 0.14 0.31 0.38 0.49 0.61 1991 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.15 0.36 0.48 0.62 0.77 1992 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.15 0.30 0.35 0.52 0.79 1993 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.16 0.33 0.40 0.55 0.83 1994 0.00 0.14 0.09 0.05 0.13 0.26 0.32 0.46 0.56 1995 0.00 0.16 0.09 0.06 0.14 0.28 0.32 0.40 0.61 1996 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.15 0.31 0.37 0.47 0.60 1997 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.05 0.15 0.30 0.34 0.43 0.77 1998 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.06 0.15 0.29 0.34 0.47 0.63 1999 0.00 0.18 0.10 0.06 0.16 0.32 0.37 0.46 0.61 2000 0.00 0.17 0.10 0.06 0.16 0.31 0.36 0.44 0.62 2001 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.05 0.16 0.32 0.39 0.50 0.76 2002 0.00 0.18 0.12 0.06 0.15 0.34 0.42 0.52 0.72 2003 0.00 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.14 0.30 0.35 0.46 0.59 2004 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.39 0.48 0.80 2005 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.06 0.15 0.32 0.39 0.52 0.64 2006 0.00 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.38 0.47 0.78 2007 0.00 0.19 0.10 0.07 0.17 0.32 0.36 0.48 0.59 2008 0.00 0.17 0.12 0.05 0.14 0.33 0.40 0.60 0.85 2009 0.00 0.18 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.34 0.42 0.57 0.74 2010 0.01 0.22 0.12 0.08 0.20 0.38 0.44 0.55 0.79 2011 0.00 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.16 0.30 0.34 0.42 0.65 2012 0.00 0.19 0.11 0.07 0.17 0.33 0.39 0.53 0.71 2013 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.16 0.36 0.47 0.62 0.77 2014 0.00 0.19 0.11 0.07 0.17 0.34 0.41 0.55 0.81 2015 0.00 0.19 0.13 0.05 0.16 0.37 0.45 0.57 0.87 Annual 0.00 0.18 0.11 0.06 0.16 0.33 0.40 0.55 0.97
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 44 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.3 Monthly and annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd500 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) January 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.15 0.19 0.25 February 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.22 March 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.24 April 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.17 0.21 May 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.19 June 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.25 July 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.23 August 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.12 0.15 0.19 September 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.20 October 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.20 November 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.26 December 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.24 Annual 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.26
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 45 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.4 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd500 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) 1980 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.20 1981 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.20 1982 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.23 1983 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18 1984 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.25 1985 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.20 1986 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.15 0.17 1987 0.00 0.08 0.05 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.24 1988 0.00 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.22 1989 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.24 1990 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.18 1991 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.14 0.16 1992 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.18 1993 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 1994 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 1995 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.18 1996 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.18 1997 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.14 1998 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 1999 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.21 2000 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18 2001 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.17 2002 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.19 2003 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.21 2004 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.20 2005 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.23 2006 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.13 2007 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.17 2008 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.15 2009 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.15 2010 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.14 0.16 0.22 0.26 2011 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.12 2012 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 2013 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.20 2014 0.00 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.25 2015 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 Annual 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.26
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 46 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.5 Monthly non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd1000 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) January 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.18 February 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.17 March 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.20 April 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.22 May 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.20 June 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.17 0.22 July 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.19 August 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.16 September 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.12 0.15 0.18 October 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.18 November 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.20 December 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.18 Annual 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.22
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 47 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.6 Annual non-tidal current speed statistics (1979-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd1000 m (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) ( m/s) 1980 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.18 1981 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 1982 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19 1983 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.17 1984 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 1985 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.16 1986 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15 1987 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 1988 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 1989 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 1990 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.09 0.16 0.19 1991 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.13 1992 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.13 0.15 1993 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.14 1994 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 1995 0.02 0.10 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.22 1996 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.20 1997 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15 1998 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 1999 0.00 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.21 2000 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 2001 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.16 2002 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.15 2003 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.11 0.12 0.16 0.17 2004 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.18 2005 0.00 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.14 0.18 0.22 2006 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.11 2007 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.14 2008 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 2009 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 2010 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.14 2011 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.13 2012 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.11 2013 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.17 2014 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.16 2015 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.17 Annual 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.22
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 48 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.7 Monthly and annual 10 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1.
Cspd 10 m Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual (m/s) >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.05 96.85 94.68 94.94 94.32 93.02 88.47 83.68 84.14 89.94 94.80 95.83 96.49 92.25 >0.1 87.11 81.92 80.70 77.00 73.20 62.44 51.78 53.21 66.40 80.90 84.51 85.56 73.68 >0.15 73.32 66.29 63.63 54.76 49.34 36.42 25.67 26.22 41.30 63.25 66.96 70.21 53.05 >0.2 58.03 51.34 46.57 34.38 28.00 18.50 11.30 10.98 21.97 43.79 49.35 53.63 35.59 >0.25 44.02 37.43 31.41 19.92 14.24 8.29 4.41 4.94 10.74 27.40 33.53 37.48 22.76 >0.3 31.32 25.14 20.21 10.69 6.31 3.55 1.74 1.90 4.41 15.52 20.17 24.26 13.73 >0.35 21.59 16.61 12.59 5.51 2.42 1.48 0.48 0.58 1.56 8.18 11.70 15.55 8.16 >0.4 14.76 10.78 7.86 2.88 0.82 0.56 0.13 0.16 0.37 4.26 6.18 9.29 4.82 >0.45 9.49 7.15 4.85 1.50 0.32 0.28 0.06 0.04 0.13 2.31 3.02 6.13 2.93 >0.5 5.72 4.52 3.05 0.78 0.13 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.02 1.24 3.73 1.68 >0.55 3.16 2.78 1.96 0.49 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.53 2.21 0.96 >0.6 1.67 1.49 1.15 0.21 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.31 1.28 0.52 >0.65 0.94 0.82 0.57 0.10 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.13 0.63 0.27 >0.7 0.47 0.44 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.28 0.12 >0.75 0.18 0.22 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.13 0.05 >0.8 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.02 >0.85 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 >0.9 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 >0.95 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 >1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 49 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.8 Monthly and annual 500 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1.
Cspd 100 m Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual (m/s) >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.05 64.93 62.00 62.51 58.45 64.47 64.68 68.07 55.81 64.29 61.49 57.57 52.09 61.36 >0.1 20.98 16.85 16.52 17.35 17.11 19.35 17.62 12.89 19.13 19.11 13.73 15.40 17.17 >0.15 4.95 3.18 3.15 2.31 1.29 3.33 2.69 1.00 1.91 2.73 3.61 4.64 2.90 >0.2 0.43 0.31 0.65 0.03 0.00 0.54 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.67 0.28 0.28 >0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.01 >0.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Table 5.9 Monthly and annual 1000 m non-tidal current speed exceedence probabilities at Site P1.
Cspd 1000m Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual (m/s) >0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 >0.05 54.07 40.28 54.63 50.15 44.93 45.94 53.44 43.63 44.62 43.11 39.14 44.76 46.62 >0.1 13.13 7.84 11.30 14.72 11.45 13.00 7.48 6.31 14.32 13.81 6.13 11.21 10.90 >0.15 1.53 0.59 0.49 1.27 0.78 1.74 0.93 0.28 0.94 1.20 0.44 1.19 0.95 >0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 >0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 >0.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 50 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.10 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd10 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 0.98 1.07 1.06 1.00 0.96 0.92 0.83 0.93 7.75 0.05-0.1 2.55 2.73 2.59 2.50 2.33 2.06 1.80 2.00 18.56 0.1-0.15 3.22 3.33 2.94 2.62 2.61 2.09 1.77 2.05 20.63 0.15-0.2 2.69 2.96 2.48 2.28 2.25 1.61 1.38 1.83 17.48 0.2-0.25 2.17 2.22 1.88 1.61 1.61 1.05 0.98 1.31 12.83 0.25-0.3 1.49 1.54 1.37 1.18 1.18 0.74 0.61 0.92 9.03 0.3-0.35 0.94 1.00 0.81 0.74 0.72 0.39 0.38 0.58 5.56 0.35-0.4 0.54 0.61 0.47 0.43 0.44 0.26 0.24 0.35 3.34 0.4-0.45 0.32 0.31 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.16 0.15 0.19 1.90 0.45-0.5 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.11 0.08 0.09 1.24 0.5-0.55 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.72 0.55-0.6 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.45 0.6-0.65 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.27 0.65-0.7 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.7-0.75 0.01 0.01 * 0.01 0.01 0.01 * 0.01 0.06 0.75-0.8 0.01 * * * * 0.01 * * 0.02 0.8-0.85 * * * - * * * * - 0.85-0.9 - * - - * - * * - 0.9-0.95 * ------0.95-1 ------* - Total 15.37 16.23 14.27 12.97 12.80 9.57 8.35 10.42 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 51 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.11 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd10 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 0.42 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.50 0.50 3.96 0.05-0.1 1.41 1.45 1.41 1.36 1.46 1.40 1.32 1.29 11.10 0.1-0.15 1.73 1.92 2.07 1.93 2.05 1.83 1.77 1.61 14.91 0.15-0.2 1.92 1.93 2.05 2.30 2.20 1.79 1.67 1.77 15.63 0.2-0.25 1.90 1.96 1.94 2.07 2.01 1.69 1.52 1.62 14.71 0.25-0.3 1.68 1.76 1.86 1.84 1.80 1.47 0.99 1.35 12.75 0.3-0.35 1.24 1.31 1.26 1.29 1.24 0.85 0.78 1.03 9.00 0.35-0.4 0.85 0.92 0.84 0.88 1.05 0.65 0.48 0.64 6.31 0.4-0.45 0.56 0.57 0.51 0.62 0.63 0.41 0.33 0.39 4.02 0.45-0.5 0.40 0.35 0.45 0.42 0.57 0.32 0.20 0.23 2.94 0.5-0.55 0.28 0.25 0.30 0.21 0.39 0.21 0.15 0.17 1.96 0.55-0.6 0.13 0.17 0.15 0.22 0.18 0.12 0.12 0.16 1.25 0.6-0.65 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.67 0.65-0.7 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.40 0.7-0.75 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.23 0.75-0.8 0.02 0.01 0.02 * 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.8-0.85 * * 0.01 - 0.02 * 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.85-0.9 - * - - * - - * - 0.9-0.95 ------0.95-1 ------* - Total 12.75 13.34 13.56 13.78 14.32 11.37 9.95 10.92 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 52 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.12 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd10 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 0.84 0.86 0.70 0.75 0.69 0.76 0.63 0.68 5.91 0.05-0.1 2.49 2.62 2.42 2.26 1.82 1.83 1.70 1.98 17.12 0.1-0.15 3.40 3.86 3.22 2.64 2.22 1.81 1.60 2.28 21.03 0.15-0.2 2.98 4.02 3.18 2.48 2.04 1.40 1.35 2.14 19.59 0.2-0.25 2.58 3.12 2.48 1.64 1.53 0.72 0.82 1.56 14.46 0.25-0.3 1.82 2.07 1.57 1.08 0.90 0.48 0.59 0.94 9.45 0.3-0.35 1.14 1.30 0.84 0.68 0.45 0.23 0.33 0.60 5.57 0.35-0.4 0.64 0.69 0.43 0.32 0.17 0.16 0.20 0.38 2.99 0.4-0.45 0.37 0.34 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.15 1.63 0.45-0.5 0.19 0.21 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.92 0.5-0.55 0.10 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.47 0.55-0.6 0.07 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.38 0.6-0.65 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.25 0.65-0.7 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.17 0.7-0.75 0.02 * * 0.01 0.01 * - - 0.04 0.75-0.8 * * - - * * * - - 0.8-0.85 ------0.85-0.9 ------* - - 0.9-0.95 * ------0.95-1 ------* - Total 16.71 19.30 15.30 12.27 10.24 7.73 7.52 10.91 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 53 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.13 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd10 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 1.88 1.97 2.03 1.89 1.80 1.77 1.51 1.75 14.60 0.05-0.1 4.30 4.56 4.14 4.07 3.88 3.17 2.56 2.98 29.66 0.1-0.15 4.95 4.60 3.48 3.17 3.57 2.52 1.82 2.26 26.37 0.15-0.2 3.33 3.16 1.96 1.57 2.19 1.20 0.97 1.46 15.84 0.2-0.25 2.16 1.50 0.86 0.74 0.93 0.40 0.37 0.72 7.68 0.25-0.3 0.90 0.74 0.45 0.31 0.62 0.10 0.08 0.28 3.48 0.3-0.35 0.41 0.31 0.19 0.12 0.37 0.04 0.02 0.09 1.55 0.35-0.4 0.16 0.13 0.06 * 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.56 0.4-0.45 0.07 0.03 0.01 - 0.03 - - 0.01 0.15 0.45-0.5 0.04 0.05 - - - - - * 0.09 0.5-0.55 0.01 0.02 0.01 - - - - - 0.04 0.55-0.6 ------0.6-0.65 - * ------0.65-0.7 ------0.7-0.75 ------0.75-0.8 ------0.8-0.85 ------0.85-0.9 ------0.9-0.95 ------0.95-1 ------Total 18.21 17.07 13.19 11.87 13.54 9.22 7.34 9.58 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 54 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.14 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 10 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd10 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 0.76 0.92 0.97 0.85 0.83 0.69 0.66 0.78 6.46 0.05-0.1 1.99 2.25 2.37 2.30 2.16 1.82 1.60 1.74 16.23 0.1-0.15 2.76 2.90 2.98 2.72 2.58 2.19 1.90 2.04 20.07 0.15-0.2 2.51 2.70 2.72 2.77 2.58 2.04 1.54 1.95 18.81 0.2-0.25 2.04 2.30 2.23 1.98 1.97 1.43 1.22 1.34 14.51 0.25-0.3 1.56 1.60 1.61 1.52 1.40 0.93 0.79 1.13 10.54 0.3-0.35 0.99 1.10 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.44 0.39 0.61 6.23 0.35-0.4 0.52 0.72 0.53 0.52 0.42 0.21 0.29 0.34 3.55 0.4-0.45 0.29 0.31 0.28 0.19 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.21 1.78 0.45-0.5 0.19 0.23 0.19 0.13 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.08 1.06 0.5-0.55 0.05 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.45 0.55-0.6 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 - * 0.01 0.17 0.6-0.65 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 - * 0.01 0.08 0.65-0.7 0.02 - - - * - - * 0.02 0.7-0.75 - * - * - - - - - 0.75-0.8 0.01 * ------0.01 0.8-0.85 ------0.85-0.9 ------0.9-0.95 ------0.95-1 ------Total 13.76 15.21 14.96 13.97 13.18 9.97 8.63 10.29 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 55 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.15 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 7.65 7.54 5.15 4.98 4.46 3.14 2.36 3.36 38.64 0.05-0.1 13.32 8.61 3.39 3.65 7.57 4.51 1.53 1.62 44.20 0.1-0.15 5.04 2.50 0.33 0.61 3.81 1.47 0.34 0.17 14.27 0.15-0.2 0.65 0.39 0.03 0.05 1.08 0.35 0.05 0.01 2.61 0.2-0.25 0.07 0.04 - * 0.10 0.05 - - 0.26 0.25-0.3 * 0.01 - - * - - - 0.01 Total 26.73 19.09 8.90 9.29 17.02 9.52 4.28 5.16 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.16 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 8.18 9.71 6.08 4.83 4.02 3.00 1.90 2.68 40.40 0.05-0.1 10.40 8.50 3.45 4.14 8.30 4.65 1.23 1.16 41.83 0.1-0.15 1.85 1.65 0.19 0.85 5.99 2.34 0.44 0.16 13.47 0.15-0.2 0.10 0.34 0.02 0.04 2.42 0.87 0.11 0.04 3.94 0.2-0.25 - - - 0.01 0.28 0.04 - - 0.33 0.25-0.3 - - - - 0.01 - - - 0.01 Total 20.53 20.20 9.74 9.87 21.02 10.90 3.68 4.04 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.17 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 9.27 8.17 5.03 4.33 4.02 2.46 1.94 2.92 38.14 0.05-0.1 17.43 11.98 2.83 2.66 5.10 2.39 0.97 1.50 44.86 0.1-0.15 6.78 4.59 0.25 0.36 1.55 0.74 0.17 0.30 14.74 0.15-0.2 0.84 0.57 - 0.03 0.22 0.31 0.04 0.01 2.02 0.2-0.25 - - - - 0.07 0.16 - - 0.23 0.25-0.3 ------Total 34.32 25.31 8.11 7.38 10.96 6.06 3.12 4.73 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 56 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.18 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 6.36 5.53 3.92 5.51 5.24 3.96 3.17 3.47 37.16 0.05-0.1 15.76 6.88 2.74 2.86 8.30 5.55 2.02 2.12 46.23 0.1-0.15 7.50 1.98 0.21 0.42 2.92 0.98 0.15 0.11 14.27 0.15-0.2 1.20 0.25 * 0.05 0.47 0.03 - - 2.00 0.2-0.25 0.28 0.01 - - 0.02 - - - 0.31 0.25-0.3 0.01 ------0.01 Total 31.11 14.65 6.87 8.84 16.95 10.52 5.34 5.70 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.19 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 500 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 6.79 6.79 5.59 5.24 4.53 3.14 2.42 4.38 38.88 0.05-0.1 9.59 7.03 4.55 4.98 8.59 5.47 1.90 1.68 43.79 0.1-0.15 3.98 1.76 0.69 0.80 4.83 1.82 0.59 0.13 14.60 0.15-0.2 0.47 0.40 0.11 0.05 1.24 0.20 0.04 * 2.51 0.2-0.25 0.01 0.15 - - 0.04 * - - 0.20 0.25-0.3 - 0.03 ------0.03 Total 20.84 16.16 10.94 11.07 19.23 10.63 4.95 6.19 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.20 Annual joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 11.43 11.27 5.58 4.52 6.04 5.57 3.97 5.01 53.39 0.05-0.1 14.46 8.97 0.99 0.65 2.99 5.38 0.86 1.42 35.72 0.1-0.15 4.53 1.95 0.05 0.02 0.73 2.48 0.07 0.12 9.95 0.15-0.2 0.49 0.13 0.02 - 0.07 0.21 - 0.01 0.93 0.2-0.25 0.02 * * - - - - - 0.02 0.25-0.3 ------Total 30.93 22.32 6.64 5.19 9.83 13.64 4.90 6.56 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 57 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.21 Summer joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 11.27 12.31 5.23 4.31 5.88 5.36 4.35 4.74 53.45 0.05-0.1 13.37 9.22 0.94 0.88 4.07 4.96 1.05 1.25 35.74 0.1-0.15 2.56 1.09 0.04 0.03 1.81 3.92 0.17 0.07 9.69 0.15-0.2 0.17 0.06 - - 0.24 0.66 - - 1.13 0.2-0.25 ------0.25-0.3 ------Total 27.37 22.68 6.21 5.22 12.00 14.90 5.57 6.06 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.22 Autumn joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 12.50 10.99 5.28 3.93 4.66 4.60 3.65 4.50 50.11 0.05-0.1 18.52 11.62 0.44 0.21 1.30 3.14 0.97 1.22 37.42 0.1-0.15 6.74 3.64 0.04 0.02 0.13 0.89 0.03 0.14 11.63 0.15-0.2 0.57 0.20 0.02 - - 0.01 - - 0.80 0.2-0.25 0.03 0.01 0.01 - - - - - 0.05 0.25-0.3 ------Total 38.36 26.46 5.79 4.16 6.09 8.64 4.65 5.86 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Table 5.23 Winter joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 9.73 8.18 4.94 4.51 7.54 7.53 4.58 5.31 52.32 0.05-0.1 16.35 7.79 1.14 0.96 3.41 6.67 0.82 1.66 38.80 0.1-0.15 4.95 1.49 0.02 - 0.21 1.15 0.03 0.06 7.91 0.15-0.2 0.73 0.15 - - 0.01 0.06 - - 0.95 0.2-0.25 0.03 ------0.03 0.25-0.3 ------Total 31.79 17.61 6.10 5.47 11.17 15.41 5.43 7.03 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
MetOcean Solutions Ltd 58 Metocean Summary – Shell Great South Basin
Table 5.24 Spring joint probability distribution (%) of 1000 m non-tidal current speed at Site P1.
Current direction (degT) Cspd500 m 337.5 22.5 67.5 112.5 157.5 202.5 247.5 292.5 Total (m/s) -22.5 -67.5 -112.5 -157.5 -202.5 -247.5 -292.5 -337.5 0-0.05 12.24 13.63 6.87 5.32 6.09 4.76 3.30 5.48 57.69 0.05-0.1 9.54 7.23 1.44 0.56 3.20 6.75 0.61 1.53 30.86 0.1-0.15 3.83 1.58 0.09 0.01 0.79 4.03 0.05 0.21 10.59 0.15-0.2 0.51 0.11 0.04 - 0.04 0.14 - 0.02 0.86 0.2-0.25 * ------0.25-0.3 ------Total 26.12 22.55 8.44 5.89 10.12 15.68 3.96 7.24 100.00 Note: * Represents less than 0.005%
Figure 5.1 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 10 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun an n
Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Figure 5.2 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 10 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Figure 5.3 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 500 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun an n
Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Figure 5.4 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 500 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Figure 5.5 Annual current rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 1000 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Jan Feb Mar
Apr May Jun an n
Jul Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Figure 5.6 Monthly wave rose plot for the non-tidal current speed at 1000 m bss at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Figure 5.7 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 10 m bss.
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Figure 5.8 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 500 m bss.
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Figure 5.9 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) non-tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at 1000 m bss.
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Table 5.25 Monthly and annual depth-averaged tidal current speed statistics (1980-2015) at Site P1.
Parameter Cspd (m/s) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) January 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 February 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 March 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 April 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 May 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 June 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 July 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 August 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 September 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 October 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 November 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 December 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 Annual 0.00 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11
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Figure 5.10 Annual current rose plot for the depth-averaged tidal current speed at Site P1. Directions are based on the ‘going to’ convention.
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Figure 5.11 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) depth-averaged tidal current speed (1980 – 2015) at Site P1.
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6. TEMPERATURE STATISTICS
The water temperature statistics at 10, 500 and 1000 m below sea surface are provided in Table 6.1 to Table 6.6 for Site P1. The mean seasonal profile of temperature over the water column is presented in Figure 6.1. The regional maps of mean, maximum and mean of annual maximum temperature at 10, 500 and 1000 m below sea surface (bss) are presented in Figure 6.2, Figure 6.3 and Figure 6.4, respectively.
Table 6.1 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp10 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) January 10.62 13.18 1.10 11.84 13.11 14.67 15.04 15.83 16.69 February 11.62 13.73 0.93 12.48 13.69 15.00 15.40 16.01 16.25 March 10.18 13.08 1.02 11.93 12.97 14.61 14.95 15.53 15.89 April 9.62 11.76 0.90 10.53 11.79 12.94 13.14 13.83 14.33 May 8.68 10.58 0.70 9.63 10.57 11.57 11.73 12.20 12.49 June 7.52 9.49 0.66 8.55 9.52 10.29 10.47 10.79 11.08 July 7.54 8.68 0.51 8.04 8.62 9.33 9.61 10.12 10.23 August 7.19 8.28 0.49 7.71 8.24 8.90 9.30 9.60 9.71 September 7.05 8.35 0.49 7.76 8.27 9.12 9.29 9.52 9.79 October 7.66 8.94 0.60 8.25 8.84 9.83 10.10 10.39 10.77 November 8.32 10.20 0.75 9.24 10.12 11.21 11.50 12.27 12.58 December 9.01 11.77 1.03 10.46 11.74 13.14 13.56 14.21 14.83 Annual 7.05 10.66 2.06 8.19 10.31 13.61 14.27 15.23 16.69
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Table 6.2 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 10 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp1000 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) 1980 9.18 11.56 2.01 9.34 10.93 14.80 15.02 15.40 15.67 1981 8.91 11.59 2.10 9.31 10.91 14.75 15.02 15.39 15.59 1982 8.03 10.64 1.79 8.41 10.93 12.71 13.20 14.30 14.54 1983 7.61 10.50 1.90 7.78 10.52 12.96 13.13 13.43 13.52 1984 8.02 10.76 2.42 8.16 9.80 14.57 14.97 15.12 15.20 1985 8.46 11.49 2.34 9.01 11.04 15.29 15.54 15.74 15.92 1986 8.08 11.66 2.54 8.76 11.55 15.49 15.95 16.19 16.69 1987 7.89 10.95 2.42 8.30 10.11 14.54 14.75 15.78 16.12 1988 7.05 10.19 2.07 7.80 9.72 13.27 13.69 14.17 14.56 1989 7.45 10.72 2.05 7.82 10.46 14.07 14.35 14.60 15.03 1990 7.57 10.43 1.89 8.08 10.38 13.31 13.72 14.48 14.79 1991 8.19 10.56 1.74 8.36 10.64 12.82 13.16 13.58 13.86 1992 7.95 10.35 1.98 8.19 9.94 13.84 14.36 15.05 15.39 1993 7.91 10.30 1.71 8.04 10.14 12.61 13.03 13.49 13.80 1994 7.19 10.47 2.25 7.87 10.09 13.78 14.53 15.08 15.31 1995 7.40 10.25 1.90 7.86 10.39 12.81 13.34 14.43 14.57 1996 7.58 10.76 2.10 8.32 10.61 13.94 14.29 14.53 14.71 1997 7.54 10.22 2.06 7.92 9.47 13.34 13.65 13.91 14.10 1998 7.60 10.04 1.76 8.07 9.65 12.93 13.19 13.45 13.84 1999 8.25 11.21 2.14 8.49 11.23 14.57 14.98 15.55 15.93 2000 7.85 10.50 1.95 8.33 10.25 13.43 13.74 14.09 14.35 2001 7.81 10.57 1.71 8.44 10.61 12.82 13.16 13.82 14.37 2002 7.61 10.56 2.11 7.94 10.35 13.61 14.30 14.88 15.36 2003 8.05 10.27 1.75 8.15 10.05 12.67 12.97 13.35 13.62 2004 7.95 10.36 1.61 8.31 10.39 12.64 13.31 13.47 13.64 2005 8.59 10.84 1.77 8.80 10.29 13.50 13.65 14.20 14.50 2006 7.66 10.43 1.89 8.32 10.04 13.31 13.68 14.21 14.46 2007 7.50 10.30 2.18 7.64 10.24 13.34 13.55 13.94 14.19 2008 7.88 10.31 1.91 8.17 10.02 13.63 14.10 14.44 14.71 2009 7.37 10.30 1.90 8.01 9.88 13.35 13.62 13.83 14.39 2010 7.58 10.22 1.88 7.96 9.68 13.42 13.85 14.33 14.48 2011 7.53 10.63 2.08 8.09 9.94 13.53 13.66 13.85 14.19 2012 8.07 10.65 1.85 8.34 10.24 13.02 13.10 13.36 14.12 2013 8.01 11.07 2.00 8.50 11.25 13.77 13.99 14.56 14.89 2014 8.61 11.11 1.86 9.02 10.52 13.88 14.25 14.58 14.89 2015 7.66 10.87 2.43 8.15 10.12 14.31 14.61 15.31 15.52 Annual 7.05 10.66 2.06 8.19 10.31 13.61 14.27 15.23 16.69
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Table 6.3 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp500 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) January 5.26 6.58 0.57 5.92 6.49 7.35 7.61 7.74 7.82 February 5.20 6.47 0.50 5.87 6.45 7.14 7.23 7.52 7.57 March 5.18 6.37 0.51 5.67 6.39 7.09 7.15 7.28 7.33 April 5.10 6.41 0.62 5.62 6.37 7.20 7.49 7.69 8.09 May 5.10 6.40 0.59 5.51 6.41 7.26 7.36 7.59 7.75 June 5.05 6.36 0.55 5.75 6.35 6.97 7.38 7.73 7.76 July 4.98 6.33 0.54 5.76 6.27 7.17 7.32 7.67 7.77 August 5.07 6.51 0.58 5.72 6.41 7.36 7.45 7.56 7.60 September 4.88 6.62 0.58 6.04 6.57 7.34 7.75 8.13 8.20 October 5.03 6.50 0.48 5.96 6.46 7.17 7.35 7.60 7.77 November 5.23 6.48 0.51 5.87 6.45 7.16 7.37 7.64 7.77 December 5.26 6.53 0.63 5.86 6.40 7.46 7.72 8.13 8.24 Annual 4.88 6.46 0.56 5.79 6.43 7.25 7.41 7.75 8.24
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Table 6.4 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 500 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp500 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) 1980 6.40 7.09 0.24 6.83 7.09 7.35 7.40 7.61 7.64 1981 5.99 6.90 0.32 6.37 6.98 7.19 7.24 7.35 7.38 1982 5.64 6.87 0.49 5.90 6.98 7.34 7.51 7.78 7.83 1983 6.86 7.20 0.19 6.92 7.17 7.49 7.53 7.59 7.60 1984 5.40 6.56 0.56 5.64 6.70 7.22 7.30 7.43 7.50 1985 5.62 6.85 0.53 5.89 6.99 7.41 7.51 7.74 7.78 1986 7.03 7.39 0.20 7.14 7.35 7.69 7.78 7.86 7.88 1987 5.61 6.43 0.72 5.69 6.09 7.52 7.68 7.74 7.75 1988 6.26 6.61 0.21 6.37 6.57 6.93 7.02 7.11 7.14 1989 5.84 6.43 0.20 6.17 6.46 6.67 6.76 7.06 7.11 1990 5.10 5.66 0.27 5.37 5.62 5.92 6.31 6.42 6.44 1991 5.54 5.84 0.17 5.61 5.84 6.09 6.11 6.13 6.15 1992 5.52 6.06 0.30 5.64 5.96 6.50 6.57 6.61 6.62 1993 5.67 6.00 0.13 5.86 6.00 6.19 6.27 6.33 6.35 1994 5.90 6.27 0.21 6.00 6.36 6.52 6.54 6.57 6.58 1995 6.01 6.38 0.15 6.20 6.37 6.56 6.65 6.73 6.77 1996 5.92 6.17 0.08 6.07 6.18 6.26 6.28 6.38 6.41 1997 6.09 6.32 0.12 6.17 6.30 6.50 6.52 6.57 6.60 1998 6.29 6.47 0.07 6.35 6.48 6.56 6.58 6.61 6.65 1999 5.95 6.32 0.10 6.20 6.34 6.44 6.47 6.50 6.51 2000 4.88 5.53 0.49 5.07 5.30 6.26 6.27 6.32 6.40 2001 5.18 5.59 0.25 5.28 5.61 5.96 6.02 6.08 6.11 2002 5.25 6.09 0.43 5.37 6.08 6.71 6.77 6.79 6.80 2003 5.62 6.08 0.21 5.84 6.06 6.41 6.49 6.58 6.62 2004 6.17 6.52 0.19 6.29 6.55 6.74 6.80 6.84 6.87 2005 5.78 6.53 0.22 6.37 6.58 6.72 6.78 6.84 6.92 2006 5.41 6.02 0.24 5.82 6.00 6.35 6.47 6.56 6.59 2007 5.73 6.54 0.40 5.97 6.56 7.04 7.12 7.28 7.33 2008 5.70 6.34 0.29 6.01 6.35 6.76 6.85 6.88 6.90 2009 6.00 6.67 0.24 6.31 6.69 6.91 6.95 7.24 7.28 2010 5.78 6.54 0.42 5.98 6.52 7.07 7.15 7.55 7.61 2011 6.22 6.65 0.18 6.38 6.69 6.83 6.99 7.02 7.04 2012 6.24 6.60 0.21 6.34 6.55 6.85 6.86 6.89 6.90 2013 5.84 6.33 0.26 6.02 6.34 6.72 6.80 6.99 7.21 2014 7.01 7.41 0.32 7.12 7.34 8.05 8.14 8.19 8.24 2015 6.04 7.36 0.40 6.73 7.46 7.74 7.78 8.00 8.09 Annual 4.88 6.46 0.56 5.79 6.43 7.25 7.41 7.75 8.24
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Table 6.5 Monthly and annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp1000 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) January 3.41 4.38 0.51 3.70 4.43 5.13 5.32 5.42 5.48 February 3.20 4.36 0.55 3.70 4.33 5.27 5.37 5.47 5.51 March 3.31 4.35 0.56 3.72 4.29 5.32 5.38 5.51 5.67 April 3.34 4.37 0.57 3.69 4.31 5.30 5.38 5.54 5.68 May 3.35 4.32 0.60 3.52 4.23 5.26 5.41 5.52 5.57 June 3.29 4.32 0.59 3.49 4.20 5.26 5.36 5.55 5.68 July 3.31 4.36 0.59 3.64 4.25 5.19 5.26 5.63 5.70 August 3.30 4.43 0.56 3.71 4.44 5.17 5.25 5.70 5.78 September 3.39 4.45 0.56 3.67 4.50 5.20 5.34 5.70 5.78 October 3.45 4.43 0.55 3.65 4.49 5.23 5.36 5.51 5.63 November 3.49 4.43 0.53 3.67 4.37 5.26 5.32 5.46 5.52 December 3.38 4.39 0.53 3.69 4.33 5.16 5.40 5.47 5.52 Annual 3.20 4.38 0.56 3.68 4.34 5.23 5.35 5.54 5.78
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Table 6.6 Annual temperature statistics (1980-2015) at 1000 m bss at Site P1.
Parameter Temp10 m (degC) Min Mean Std P10 P50 P90 P95 P99 Max (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) (degC) 1980 3.83 4.24 0.18 4.03 4.19 4.52 4.55 4.60 4.73 1981 4.02 4.36 0.12 4.23 4.35 4.52 4.55 4.69 4.73 1982 3.92 4.29 0.13 4.16 4.28 4.46 4.54 4.60 4.62 1983 4.16 4.35 0.10 4.22 4.33 4.49 4.55 4.58 4.61 1984 3.85 4.28 0.23 3.94 4.28 4.57 4.62 4.71 4.73 1985 4.02 4.40 0.19 4.09 4.47 4.61 4.62 4.65 4.67 1986 4.35 4.69 0.16 4.49 4.71 4.89 4.93 5.00 5.02 1987 3.29 3.89 0.54 3.45 3.55 4.67 4.71 4.74 4.77 1988 3.57 3.73 0.09 3.64 3.72 3.85 3.88 4.01 4.05 1989 3.59 3.71 0.08 3.63 3.70 3.81 3.86 3.99 4.03 1990 3.20 3.62 0.22 3.33 3.69 3.86 3.88 3.90 3.92 1991 3.79 3.96 0.06 3.90 3.95 4.02 4.06 4.08 4.09 1992 3.84 4.18 0.24 3.91 4.05 4.50 4.55 4.60 4.61 1993 4.19 4.39 0.12 4.24 4.38 4.55 4.57 4.60 4.62 1994 4.45 4.67 0.13 4.51 4.71 4.86 4.90 4.93 4.94 1995 4.82 5.16 0.14 4.93 5.19 5.30 5.33 5.39 5.43 1996 5.03 5.23 0.08 5.12 5.22 5.34 5.35 5.39 5.44 1997 5.10 5.31 0.10 5.19 5.29 5.45 5.48 5.51 5.52 1998 5.28 5.51 0.12 5.37 5.50 5.68 5.70 5.75 5.78 1999 4.76 5.21 0.17 5.00 5.22 5.39 5.44 5.49 5.51 2000 3.29 4.06 0.85 3.34 3.61 5.31 5.34 5.40 5.47 2001 3.60 3.86 0.16 3.66 3.92 4.08 4.11 4.18 4.21 2002 3.73 3.90 0.07 3.79 3.91 3.97 3.98 4.08 4.10 2003 3.67 3.94 0.18 3.73 3.87 4.23 4.28 4.30 4.31 2004 4.21 4.68 0.35 4.27 4.73 5.11 5.17 5.33 5.41 2005 3.38 4.87 0.48 4.62 5.01 5.27 5.32 5.36 5.39 2006 3.38 3.56 0.09 3.45 3.56 3.68 3.73 3.76 3.78 2007 3.69 3.88 0.10 3.74 3.90 3.99 4.03 4.10 4.18 2008 3.85 3.95 0.05 3.88 3.95 4.01 4.03 4.08 4.10 2009 3.90 4.02 0.08 3.93 3.99 4.15 4.17 4.18 4.19 2010 3.99 4.24 0.17 4.03 4.22 4.51 4.57 4.59 4.61 2011 4.15 4.71 0.18 4.40 4.77 4.87 4.92 4.97 4.99 2012 4.63 4.85 0.12 4.68 4.86 5.03 5.04 5.08 5.10 2013 4.22 4.54 0.12 4.33 4.55 4.68 4.69 4.76 4.79 2014 4.44 4.70 0.10 4.52 4.73 4.82 4.83 4.85 4.86 2015 4.45 4.84 0.23 4.61 4.79 5.34 5.45 5.54 5.56 Annual 3.20 4.38 0.56 3.68 4.34 5.23 5.35 5.54 5.78
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Figure 6.1 Mean seasonal sea temperature profile along the water column at P1.
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Figure 6.2 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 10 m bss.
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Figure 6.3 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 500 m bss.
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Figure 6.4 Mean (a), maximum (b) and mean of annual maximum (c) temperature (1980 – 2015) at 1000 m bss.
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7. TIDAL WATER LEVEL STATISTICS
The tidal water level statistics at Site P1 are presented in Table 7.1. The area is characterised be semi-diurnal tides (i.e. two low and high tides per day).
Table 7.1 Tidal water level statistics at Site P1, as resolved from the modelled tidal constituents.
Elevation (m, Parameter Description relative to MSL) HAT Highest Astronomical Tide 0.92 MHWS Mean High Water Springs (M2+S2) 0.74 MHWN Mean High Water Neaps (M2-S2) 0.55 MSL Mean Sea Level 0.00 MLWN Mean Low Water Neaps (-M2+S2) -0.55 MLWS Mean Low Water Springs (-M2-S2) - 0.74 LAT Lowest Astronomical Tide -0.93
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8. EXTREME METOCEAN STATISTICS
The omni-directional extreme value statistics at Site P1 have been produced for wind speed, significant wave height, associated peak period, maximum individual wave height, maximum individual wave crest, depth-averaged tidal and non-tidal current speed (for ARIs of 1,10, 30, 50 and 100 years) in Table 8.1. The omni- directional bivariate (Hs-Tp) extreme contours are presented in Figure 8.1.
The comparisons between the omni-directional empirical and fitted cumulative Pareto distributions at Site P1 for significant wave height are shown in Figure 8.2 while the omni-directional empirical and fitted cumulative Pareto distribution for wind speed and non-tidal current speed are provided in Figure 8.3 to Figure 8.6.
Table 8.1 Wind, current and wave extreme values at Site P1.
ARI (years) Parameter Symbol Units 1 10 50 100 10-min averaged wind speed Wsp m.s-1 23.05 26.87 29.41 30.47 -1 Non-tidal current speed at 10 m bss Csp 10m m.s 0.74 0.94 1.08 1.14 -1 Non-tidal current speed at 500 m bss Csp 500 m m.s 0.21 0.26 0.30 0.31 -1 Non-tidal current speed at 1000 m bss Csp 1000 m m.s 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.25
Significant wave height Hs m 8.96 10.61 11.43 11.72
Associated peak wave period Tp s 14.00 14.45 14.63 14.70
Maximum individual wave height Hmax m 18.99 22.22 23.95 24.64
Maximum wave crest Cmax m 10.28 12.16 13.15 13.53
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Figure 8.1 Contour plot of omni-directional bi-variate return period values (ARI1, 10, 50 and 100- year) at Site P1 for significant wave height and peak wave period. The dark crosses correspond to the estimated deterministic Hs and associated Tp return period values for each ARI indicated in the legend.
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Figure 8.2 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for total significant wave height at Site P1.
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Figure 8.3 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Weibull cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for wind speed at Site P1.
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Figure 8.4 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 10 m at Site P1.
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Figure 8.5 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 500 m at Site P1.
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Figure 8.6 Comparison between omni-directional empirical and fitted Pareto cumulative distribution functions (top graph) and diagnostic plot of goodness of fit (bottom graph, R2 = R-squared, MRAE = Mean Relative Absolute Error) for non-tidal current speed at 1000 m at Site P1.
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9. REFERENCES
Ardhuin, F., Rogers, E., Babanin, A.V., Filipot, J.-F., Magne, R., Roland, A., van der Westhuysen, A., Queffeulou, P., Lefevre, J.-M., Aouf, L., Collard, F., 2010. Semiempirical Dissipation Source Functions for Ocean Waves. Part I: Definition, Calibration, and Validation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 40, 1917–1941. doi:10.1175/2010JPO4324.1 Hasselmann, S., Hasselmann, K., Allender, J.H., Barnett, T.P., 1985. Computations and Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer in a Gravity-Wave Specturm. Part II: Parameterizations of the Nonlinear Energy Transfer for Application in Wave Models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 15, 1378–1391. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1985)015<1378:CAPOTN>2.0.CO;2 Holthuijsen, L.H., Booij, N., Ris, R.C., Haagsma, I.J., Kieftenburg, A.T.M.M., Kriezi, E.E., Zijlema, M., van der Westhuysen, A.J., 2007. SWAN cycle III version 40.51, Technical Documentation. Delft, 2600 GA Delft The Netherlands. Leonard, B.P., 1991. The ULTIMATE conservative difference scheme applied to unsteady one-dimensional advection. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 88, 17–74. doi:10.1016/0045-7825(91)90232-U Leonard, B.P., 1979. A stable and accurate convective modelling procedure based on quadratic upstream interpolation. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 19, 59–98. doi:10.1016/0045-7825(79)90034-3 Saha, S., Moorthi, S., Pan, H.-L., Wu, X., Wang, J., Nadiga, S., Tripp, P., Kistler, R., Woollen, J., Behringer, D., Liu, H., Stokes, D., Grumbine, R., Gayno, G., Wang, J., Hou, Y.-T., Chuang, H.-Y., Juang, H.-M.H., Sela, J., Iredell, M., Treadon, R., Kleist, D., Van Delst, P., Keyser, D., Derber, J., Ek, M., Meng, J., Wei, H., Yang, R., Lord, S., Van Den Dool, H., Kumar, A., Wang, W., Long, C., Chelliah, M., Xue, Y., Huang, B., Schemm, J.-K., Ebisuzaki, W., Lin, R., Xie, P., Chen, M., Zhou, S., Higgins, W., Zou, C.-Z., Liu, Q., Chen, Y., Han, Y., Cucurull, L., Reynolds, R.W., Rutledge, G., Goldberg, M., 2010. The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 Tolman, H.L., 2002. Distributed-memory concepts in the wave model WAVEWATCH III. Parallel Comput. 28, 35–52. doi:10.1016/S0167-8191(01)00130-2 Tolman, H.L., Chalikov, D., 1996. Source terms in a third-generation wind wave model. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26, 2497–2518.
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APPENDIX A. WIND VALIDATION
Figure A.1 Location of the project (red dot) and wind stations (yellow dots) used to validate the 12 km NZRA model.
Figure A.2 Wind roses (top) and scatter density diagrams (bottom) comparing measured and model wind velocities at Kupe over 2012. Hot colours indicate higher density of data-points in the diagrams.
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Figure A.3 Wind roses (top) and scatter density diagrams (bottom) comparing measured and model wind velocities at Dunedin over 2012. Hot colours indicate higher density of data-points in the diagrams.
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APPENDIX B. WAVE VALIDATION
Figure B.1 Area (red dot line) around Site P1 used to validate the wave hindcast based on measured satellite altimetry data.
Figure B.2 Wave validation over the specific area around Site P1 shown in Figure B.1.: number of satellite observations (a) and Hs Bias (b) between model and measured data. A positive bias indicate an overestimation of the model.
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Figure B.3 Scatter density diagram (top) and Q-Q plot (bottom) using model and measured Hs data over the specific area around Site P1 shown in Figure B.1.
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APPENDIX C. CURRENT VALIDATION
Figure C.1 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 30 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.2 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 40 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.3 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 50 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.4 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 60 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.5 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 70 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.6 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 80 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.7 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 90 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.8 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 100 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.9 Time series of east (top) and north (bottom) components of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current velocities at 110 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.10 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 30 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.11 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 40 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.12 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 50 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.13 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 60 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.14 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 70 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.15 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 80 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.16 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 90 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.17 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 100 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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Figure C.18 Q-Q plot of modelled ROMS and observed non-tidal current speed at 110 m below sea surface at location 170.847oE,45.998oS.
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