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Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2002 B00-061 General Jonas Þemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius STRATEGIC RESEARCH CENTER LITHUANIAN ANNUAL STRATEGIC REVIEW 2002 Vilnius 2003 7610001000061 UDK 32(474.5)(048) Li 301 Reviewers: Prof., habil. dr. Jonas Èièinskas Doc., dr. Graina Miniotaitë Editorial Board: Prof., dr. Raimundas Lopata Prof., dr. Jûratë Novagrockienë Prof., dr. Gediminas Vitkus Managing Editor Gediminas Vitkus Make-up Editor : Genovaitë Laugalienë © Authors of the articles, 2003 © General Jonas Þemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy, 2003 Content Preface ..................................................................................................... 5 Membership of NATO is the Impulse for Reforms Linas Linkevièius ..................................................................................... 7 Global International System and Lithuania: Trends of Development ................................................ 17 Globalization and New Threats: Terrorism Edita Dranseikaitë ................................................................................... 19 Changes in the US Global Security Strategy and its Implications for Lithuania Vaidotas Urbelis ....................................................................................... 37 Debates on NATOs Future Evaldas Nekraas .................................................................................... 69 Lithuania in the Context of NATO Enlargement Giedrius Èekuolis ..................................................................................... 91 Changing European Security Space .................................... 107 Changing Security Regime of Baltic Sea Region Gediminas Vitkus ..................................................................................... 109 European Security: New Challenges and Prospects for Co-operation Margarita Ðeðelgytë................................................................................... 133 Lithuanias Eastern Neighbors ............................................. 163 Russias Foreign Policy after September 11 Èeslovas Laurinavièius ............................................................................ 165 Strategic Importance of the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation Vladas Sirutavièius, Inga Stanytë Toloèkienë........................................ 181 Authoritarianism in Belarus: Eventual Threats to Lithuanias Security Raimundas Lopata .................................................................................. 215 Internal Security Issues in Lithuania ..................................... 231 Democratic Control over the Armed Forces in Lithuania Algirdas Gricius, Kæstutis Paulauskas ..................................................... 233 The Content of Strategic Dimension of Lithuanias Economic Policy in Comparative Perspective Darius eruolis, Giedrius Jucevièius ........................................................ 255 Analysis of Threats for Economic Security of Lithuania Artûras Grebliauskas................................................................................ 277 Perception of Security Issues by Lithuanian Population Diana Januðauskienë, Jûratë Novagrockienë .......................................... 297 5 Preface The Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2002 is the first scientific study of the Strategic Research Center. This center was established by the General Jonas emaitis Military Academy of Lithuania and the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University on 19 December 2001. Though there had been much talk in Lithuania about the necessity to encourage the establishment of the so called thinktanks that could perform continuous and systematic analysis of national security issues and supply professional evaluation of the most acute pro- blems, it was only at the end of 2001 that finally this idea was successfully implemen- ted. In presenting this publication to the readers, it should be first of all pointed out that the main purpose of the study is to provide the readers with a wide-scale analysis and generalization of the changes, essential and significant, for the national security of Lithuania at internationalsystemic, regional and national levels. The book also aims to give maximum emphasis to the specificity of Lithuanian national security issues and comprehensively presenting them to a widely interested and con- cerned audience. The idea by our famous geographer, Kazys Paktas, is widely known and frequently cited: as Switzerland is characterized by high mountains, Italy by works of art, Finland by lakes, so Lithuania should be called a country that is very dangerous for a small nation to live in. The publication in question has tried to move a step further and discuss what that idea means today, and still, more importantly, what actions should be taken to at least bridle this problem if not to settle it. It should also be kept in mind that the authors and editors guided themselves by the modern concept of strategic security studies. Following the decades of the Cold War the attitude that the assurance of the national security of each state was considered the function of its military power as an axiom in international relations was replaced by a new one. The decline of the importance of power struggle determi- ned that military security dimension was decreasing, however the aspects of political, ecological and even individual security were in fact increasing. The changed reality could do all but affect the nature of academic security studies. Considering traditio- nal strategic studies have analyzed military and defensive dimensions, these studies have taken a new shape in which the role of military aspects are now a part of a multidimensional approach. Certainly, both common global development tendencies of the international security system and the current issues of the Lithuanian national security during the last decade have stimulated the appearance of numerous interesting and valuable publications. However, in spite of relevance and importance, Lithuanian national security has been analyzed as if by fits and starts, failing to find a mean which could guarantee systematic and continuous research work to bring about the best results. The existing gap within the strategic studies of Lithuania hard be filled by The Annual Lithuanian Strategic Review, which from now will be published in Lithua- nian and English.. This circumstance makes it possible to expect the Strategic Research Center 6 to become a continually and productively operating scientific research institution assembling scattered intellectual resources for creative work. Finally, it is a pleasure that the first object of the analysis and the strong point of The Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review began 2002, a year very important in the history of Lithuania. It was this year that Lithuania, having received the long awaited and hardsought after invitations to join NATO and the European Union, found itself closer than ever before to the implementation of its strategic foreign and security policy objectives. This is undoubtedly reflected in the scientific studies and analyses presented in this book. Vilnius, January 2003 Editorial Board 7 Linas Linkevièius The Minister of National Defence Membership of NATO is the Impulse for Reforms At the meeting of the leaders of NATO states, Lithuania, together with a group of countries of Central and Eastern Europe, was invited to start negotiations regar- ding membership of this Alliance. Certainly, this is appreciation of our long work we can be happy and proud of our achievements, but we also have to understand that after Prague we will have to do even more. Before the meeting in Prague, we were a reliable partner, after it, we will also have to become a reliable ally. The evaluation of our achieved progress will be based on different criteria. I said several times and will repeat it in the future that after the invitation, we are going to face hard work. Although the invitation ends up a difficult stage that required a lot of effort, it also means the beginning of another stage a more compli- cated one, but certainly more interesting and requiring a lot of responsibility. I have no doubts that we are well prepared to accept all the obligations related to NATO membership. Our task becoming a good ally becomes even more complicated because NATO is in the process of transformation, and this transformation changes the secu- rity system of the country and enforces new requirements for the armed forces. All the issues discussed at the Prague summit fall into three main groups: new members, new relationships and new capabilities. All the three aspects have a big influence upon Lithuanias policy. The admission of new states into this organisation will further strengthen the role of NATO in the world. Lithuania and other invited states will come to NATO with actual economic, social and defensive potential, new thinking and ideas about various aspects of the European defence and security policy that they will stand for as members of NATO and the EU. The invitation to NATO is not the end of the integration into the Alliance strengthening of security is a continuous process, not a finite act. The consideration of defence policy perspectives of Lithuania as a NATO member must first of all involve international security environment after this stage of enlargement. NATO membership is not only a positive evaluation of our reforms but also a stimulus for further
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