CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

1.1 Relevance of Topic

Agriculture in developing countries will be confronted with three major challenges in the decades to come (i) increasing food demand from rapidly growing population as well as due to economic growth, (ii) stagnating or declining productivity in high productivity regions, often described as "green revolution fatigue" and (iii) increasing vulnerability of agriculture to potential climate change. It is not conceivable that agriculture can deliver the expected output without modern technologies such as genetic engineering, biotechnology and geo-environment technology.

Estimating crop production in advance of the harvest is of great utility in farming for implementing appropriate agricultural management and pricing of export / import of agriculture commodities. Crop production estimation involves determination of total area under crop and prediction of the yield per unit area.

Agriculture has been a major economic activity in for many centuries. At present, about 59% (2001) of India's population is engaged in agriculture and related activities (J

(Datt and Sundha ram, 2001). After Independence (1947), India badly suffered from food shortage due to numerous droughts and famines and had to import food grains.

The severity reached its highest peak in 1965-66, which were severe drought years and there was extreme shortage of food supplies. Therefore a team of scientists put forth the idea of 'Green Revolution' i.e. increasing agricultural productivity by using emerging technology. Green Revolution strategy revolved around components like .

Irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides and seed technology. Dr. M.S. Swaminathan led the **' Z r 0 agricultural scientists in implementing the concept with surprisingly great success. The adoption of Green Revolution changed the agricultural scenario of India and it not only became self-sufficient in food but also became the exporter of food grains. ^ The intense use of irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides for last 40 years brought out its adverse effects on environment. It has been realized that good agricultural lands in

I Godavari and Bhima drain this region, having fertile soils (black cotton soils). Average annual rainfall of the study area is 500 - 700 mm. Rainfall is reliable though moderate

(Deshpande, 1971). The temperatures vary between 22°C and 30°C during kharif and between 14°C and 28°C in the rabi season. There are only agro-based industries like sugar factories and power loom mills. Therefore, agriculture plays major role in the region's economy. Large agricultural areas are rainfed (dryland) and very few parts have irrigation facilities. Therefore, a spatio-temporal study of crop regions is needed for the sustainability of the economy of the region.

1.2 Study Area

Maharashtra state is the third largest state of India covering 11% area of the country. It is having Konkan coastline followed by in the west, plateaus in central parts and hilly zones in north and eastern parts of the state. Administratively, there are

35 districts (Figure 1.1) comprising of 356 talukas in the state. The State is divided in six revenue divisions; Nashik (5 districts), Konkan (4), Mumbai (2), Pune (5), Aurangabad

(8), Amravati (5) and Nagpur (6).

Figure 1.1 Administrative map of State;

Source: Maharashtra Government Press, Pune (2001) 3 river basins are becoming wastelands due to salinisation resulting from indiscriminate application of irrigation. The soils are degraded due to excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This has led to reduction in productive area for agriculture and finally less production of food grains. In the mean time, population of India has increased to 100 crores and above. This indicates that another Green Revolution which is now termed by Dr. M. S. Swaminathan as Evergreen Revolution has to be extended to enhance productivity of crops.

Remote sensing (RS) is defined as the measurement or acquisition of information of some property of an object or phenomenon by a recording device that is not in physical or intimate contact with the object or phenomenon under study. These systems, particularly deployed on satellites, provide a repetitive and consistent view of the earth that is valuable to monitoring the earth systems and the effect of human activities on them. One of the important applications of RS technology is agriculture; it includes studies like crop inventory, monitoring crop condition, yield prediction and soil erosion (Schowengerdt, 2006). Geographical Information System (GIS) is a computer-aided system used for handling spatial and non-spatial data for solving environmental problems. It is the recent development and useful to handle huge geographical data. The advanced tools like RS, GIS and GPS (Global Positioning System) help the analysis as they are capable of bringing out the present conditions of different natural parameters and their trends in the cropping enterprises efficiently.

Maharashtra state has fifteen major crops which include cash crops like sugarcane and cotton; cereals like rice, wheat, sorghum, bajra; pulses like pigeon pea, bengal gram, and oilseeds like groundnut, safflower. The State is having wide variation in physiographic, climatic, soil as well as socio-economic conditions. As a result, the cropping pattern is different across the State.

The hot, dry semi arid agro-ecological sub-region is located in the central part of

Maharashtra (Velayutham et. al.1999). It includes entire , Osmanabad and districts and partially Pune, and Satara districts together consisting of 44 talukas (figure 1.3 and table 1.1). The geographical extent of the study area is 17°7'55"

N to 19° 39'10" N of latitudes and 74°10'0"E to 76°47'35"E of longitudes. Rivers 2 The state's agro-ecology is fully dominated by its physiography and climate. The agro-

ecological classification shows that Central Maharashtra which is to the east of the

Western Ghats is characterised by aridity. Therefore, the climate changes from per

humid to humid followed by sub humid and semi-arid from west to east in the Western Maharashtra (Figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2 Agro-ecological regions of Maharashtra State Source: NBSS and LUP, Nagpur The central Maharashtra is covered by three subregions, hot moist sub-humid region in the north, hot dry sub-humid to the west of the southern part of Central Maharashtra and the remaining is covered by hot dry semi arid agro-ecological subregion.

The study area is the hot dry semi arid agro-ecological subregion of Maharashtra state.

Though it receives less rainfall, it is the major cropping zone as most of the state's

sorghum is grown in this region.

1.2.1 Climate

Forming a part of tropical monsoonal lands, the study area experiences annual

variations not only in the thermal conditions but also in the amount and intensity of

rainfall and the duration of the rainy season. Temperatures are usually the lowest in December and January.

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Figure 1.3 Study area - Hot dry semi arid agro-ecological subregion (Source: compiled by author)

Table 1.1: Talukas in the study area (ref to figure 1.3) (Source: compiled by author) ID Taluka ID Taluka ID Taluka ID Taluka Ahmadnagar district 12 Patoda 24 Kalamb 36 Mangalvedhe 1 Rahuri 13 Georai 25 Osmanabad 37 Pandharpur 2 Nevasa 14 Beed 26 Tuljapur 38 Sangole 3 Shevgaon 15 Manjlegaon 27 Lohara 39 Malshiras 4 Parner 16 Wadwani 28 Umarga Pune district 5 Nagar 17 Kaij Solapur district 40 Indapur 6 Pathardi 18 Dharur 29 Akkalkot 41 Daund 7 Shrigonda 19 Parli 30 Solapur South 42 Baramati 8 Karjat 20 Ambejogai 31 Solapur North Satara district 9 Jamkhed Osmanabad district 32 Barshi 43 Phaltan 10 Ashti 21 Paranda 33 Mohol 44 Man Beed district 22 Bhum 34 Madha 11 Shirur (Kasar) 23 Washi 35 Karmala 5 Average minimum temperatures are around 12° to 12.5°C. Maximum temperature is in the month of April and May. Average maximum temperatures are around 44° to 46°C.

The summer monsoon bursts by 10th June in the region. The Western Ghats cast their shadow to create a rain shadow area. Rainfall at Pune is 665 mm decreases towards east up to 465 mm in Baramati and 480 mm at Phaltan. Then the rainfall gradually increases eastward upto 739 mm at Akkalkot and 770 mm at Manjlegaon. July is the rainiest month with the maximum number of rainy days and followed by September in the study area.

Figure 1.4: Isohyet map

1.2.2 Relief

The range that separates the Godavari basin and the Bhima basin is called as

Harishchandragad - Balaghat range. Taking off from the Western Ghats crest, the range

maintains its eastward orientation. The average altitude of the plateau is 600 meters

reaches altitude of 800 meters along the margins. The southward slopes of this

plateaux and the general altitude of in the eastern direction have given rise to sub-

parallel drainage with NW-SE orientation of major rivers like Manjra (figure 1.5). The

Balaghat plateau covering Parner taluka in the west and Ambejogai taluka in the east

6 forms the catchment area for a number of plateau rivers. These plateaux are well planated surfaces with deep valleys on either side. Though the catchment areas of these plateau rivers are reasonably large, due their locations away from the area of high rainfall region of the Western Ghats, they do not have sufficient discharge.

Therefore these plateau rivers remain dry for most part of the year. Due to meagre discharges passing through rivers, they do not support any major irrigation project and hence the areas remain dry, unproductive and in turns largely neglected so far as the development plans are concerned. Northern parts of the region are Balaghat hilly tracts which are the offshoots of Western Ghats dividing the Bhima and the Godavari basins. A low divide extending along Karjat- Karmala- Kurduwadi separates river Sina from Bhima river.

The range, that separates the catchments of the Bhima and the Krishna takes off from the Western Ghats at Raireshwar plateau, located in the southern part of Pune district.

The height of this plateau, around 1100 m, is comparable to that of Mahabaleshwar surface. The range takes off at the termination of this plateau in its eastward extention.

The overall orientation of this range is NNW to SSE. The main range continues further southeastward and separates the river Man flowing into Bhima and the Yerala forming a part of Krishna basin.

Drainage and Elevation Hot dry semi arid agro-ecological sub region

Legend Rivers I I Study area Elevation 136J r

378 m

Northern parts of the regions are hilly tracts which are the offshoots of Western Ghats dividing the Bhima and the Godavari basin. Major part of the study area is drained by river Bhima and its tributaries like the Ghod, Sina, Manjara on the left bank and the

Man and Nira on the right bank. River Bhima, though a tributary of the Krishna, covers major part of the study area, playing major role in the economy of the State. It's four tributaries the Ghod, the Indrayani, the Mula-Mutha and the Nira, all emerge from heavy rainfall Sahyadrian zone and make an inverted delta, a virtual funnel, in which all these streams join the Bhima at Daund.

River Manjara is the major right bank tributary of river Krishna. Flowing from the plateau, the Manjara river is consequential and runs dry during the non rainy season.

It's shallow shifting channel causes more erosion and loss of soil than enriching its floodplain. The Pravara and the Mula, the two right bank tributaries of river Godavari coming from the Sahyadris have the advantage of heavy rains in their source region, stored in large reservoirs, thus, their basins receive irrigation and are agriculturally the most developed parts of the State. Between the Bhima and the southern margin of the

Balaghat surface lies the basin of river Sina. River Man occupies the area towards the north eastern side of the Mahadeo range.

1.2.4 Soils

The soils in the study area are broadly categorised into shallow, medium and deep black soils, where the shallow soils cover the divides and the deep black soils follow the major valleys of the rivers. The largest area is covered by the medium black soils. This appears too simplified picture because the black soils are not so widespread and co exist with different soils in the relief (figure 1.6).

1. Coarse shallow soils: Such soils occupy the major divides such as the Balaghat

plateau and the Mahadeo range. Because of the paucity of the rainfall, weathering

in these areas is retarded and so is leaching, with the result that coarse shallow soils

with very little humus occur on these plateaus. Occupying the divides, these areas

have not received any transported soil. The thickness of such soils is restricted by

the depth of weathering, which does not exceed 40cm. In the western part of these

plateaus, where the rainfall is slightly higher, the thickness is greater and close to

water courses it reaches a depth of even a meter. These soils occupy a zone having

8 600 and 750 mm of rains, and are neutral and alkaline in reaction. The moisture

storage in these soils is limited because of their shallow profile and a coarse texture

which does not permit much capillary water. The free water is easily drained or

evaporated. These support only rainfed crops like bajra, nachni and warai.

2. Medium black soils: The medium black soils occupy the eastern margins of the

plateau divides which are either lowered, or replaced by erosional plains, either as a

result of a recession of plateau margins or because of dissection by the tributaries of

some major rivers. The medium black soils, occupying the largest area grade in to

deep black soils and differ from the latter in their depth of the profiles, colour and

texture.

Figure 1.6: Soils map 3. The vertisols: The black soils of Deccan Plateau are also known as black cotton soils,

regur, vertisols or grumosols. Each of these names indicates one of their properties,

namely colour, characteristic crop, self ploughing property or granular structure in

upper horizon. These normally occur in areas of moderate rainfall. Usually these

soils occupy the valleys, terraces, flood plains and lower parts of almost all basins

being enriched heavily by the sediments from the slopes by wash, creep and

innumerable small water courses. These soils have larger fraction of clay. Devoid of

any leaching, since they occur in areas of moderate and low rainfall, and poor or no

9 chemical weathering, the soils have not suffered from any loss of bases or

concentration of iron or aluminium in their upper horizons. Thus, they have an

alkaline reaction and are known for their high content of lime (1 to 5 %) and other

bases. The lime takes different form. It may occur as nodules in the profile or as a

band. Despite their dark colour, the black soils are poor in organic content and even

nitrogen but do not show any deficiency in potsh and phosphates. The pH of these

soils is between 8 and 8.5, containing 0.2 and 0.3 per cent of soluble salts.

1.2.5 Irrigation

Irrigation is one of the many techniques meant to improve agricultural productivity.

Water, besides a certain duration and amount of sunlight, threshold temperature, and a minimum of soil and mineral nutrients, is essential to the growth of plants.

Inadequacy of moisture in the soil, near aridity conditions in same areas receiving 500 mm of rain and near absence of any worthwhile irrigation facilities produced a land- utilization pattern in which the rainfed cultivation predominated. Many of the irrigation projects that are on the map of Maharashtra today are of recent origin.

Today about 23 per cent of the GCA in the study region is under irrigation (year 2007).

The different sources of irrigation are government canals, private canals, wells, tanks and ponds and other sources (Figure 1.7 and Table 1.2).

Government canals Private canals

——lakes and ponds wells

——other sources

Figure 1.7: Sources of Irrigation; Source: Agricultural census Except the cultivated land irrigated by private canals which has declined, after 1990, there is an increase in irrigation from other sources. The land under government canal irrigation (18.59 per cent) has shown maximum increase with time followed by well 10 irrigation (67.77 per cent). Irrigation by other sources has covered relatively small area

(10.59 per cent) followed by irrigation by tanks (2.91 per cent) and least is area under irrigation by private canals (0.14 per cent). In the study region, Pune and Ahmadnagar districts stand first and second in the area under irrigation. The region has major irrigation projects like Ujani on river Bhima and Jayakwadi on river Godavari. Their tributaries also have irrigation projects which supply water throughout the year.

Table 1.2: Area irrigated by sources (ha); Source: Agricultural census

% of area under Sources of Irrigation 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 irrigation (2007) 1) Government canals 94246 106943 153578 159780 211026 18.59 2) Private canals 837 1163 9269 2621 1621 0.14 3) Tanks 13432 12783 32761 32953 33028 2.91 4) Wells 271885 421459 470059 714724 769082 67.77 5) Other sources 5122 12557 108368 105125 120271 10.59 Gross area irrigated 386128 553618 774203 997346 1135028 100

1.2.6 General Land use

Peculiar feature of the study area is that though it is surrounded by industrial zones

(Pune -Satara in the west, in the east and Aurangabad in the North) it's economy is based solely on agriculture and agro-based industries.

Out of the total land, 67.7 per cent land is covered by net sown area and considering the current and other fallow land it increases by 15 per cent. In the study area, only 3.7 per cent land is covered by forests scattered in small pockets and 4.4 per cent is covered by barren land. Current fallow is covering 7.7 per cent of GCA and other fallow covers 8.0 per cent. Table 1.3: General land use of hot dry semi arid agro ecological sub region Type of land Area (OOOha) Area (%) Forest land 186.197 3.7 Barren land 223.83 4.4 Non agricultural land 99.749 2.0 permanent fallow land 123.842 2.5 Grazing land 161.507 3.2 Culturable waste 43.517 0.9 current fallow 389.95 7.7 other fallow 404.478 8.0 net sown area 3420.613 67.7 Total geographical area 5053.68 100

II 1.3 Hypothesis

The present study hypothesises that i) the spatio-temporal variations in cropping

pattern are related to some physical and s^cio-economic variables, ii) the water

availability in different stages of growth of crops is related to the yield, and iii) remote

sensing and GIS technologies can be applied to estimate areas under major crops

before harvest and land suitability for major crops.

1.4 Objective

The primary objective of the proposed study is to assess the spatio-temporal variations

in the cropping pattern of hot dry semi-arid agro-ecological subregion of Maharashtra.

The main objective has following components:

> Analyzing spatial and temporal cropping pattern attaluka level for hot dry semi-

arid AESR of Maharashtra state

^ Computation of water balance for major kharif and rabi crops based on agro-

climatic and soil water availability zones

> Inventory of major rabi crops (sorghum and wheat) at taluka and agro-climatic

zone levels using satellite data

"^ Evaluation of land for its suitability for sorghum (kharif and rabi), bajra

(pearlmillet) and wheat cultivation using GIS

1.5 Data

The data for the study are obtained from various sources categorized as follows:

1. Aspatial Data -

1) Agricultural Data - a) Crop area (ha) for talukas for available period (1970-

2007)

b) Land use/ Land cover (ha),

c) Area under irrigation according to source and crop

(Source: 'Directorate of Agriculture', Maharashtra State) 2) Weather Data- Diurnal Data from IMD (India Meteorological

Department), Pune for rainfall and temperature.

3) Crop cultivation data - Primary data of sample farmers related to input

expenses and output return for crops under study and

secondary socio-economic data from Census

Handbook (2001) for talukas 12 2. Spatial data-

Maps - 1) Administrative Map of Maharashtra at 1:1,000,000 scale (2001)

2) The Maharashtra state taluka wise map

3) SOI topographic maps of the study area on 1:250,000 and

1:50,000 scale

4) Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission data

5) IRS P6 LISS III Satellite imagery (6 scenes) for the study area

from National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Hyderabad

6) Ground data collection for crops using GPS instrument

7) Soil map at 1:500,000 scale for the state from National Bureau of

Soil Survey and Land Use Planning, Nagpur and at 1:50000 for

study area from MRSAC, Nagpur.

1.6 Methodology Following steps are carried out for achieving the above mentioned objectives-

1. Using data for study region at 10 years interval the volume of change was calculated

for understanding the decadal change in area under major crops. The compound

rate of growth was also calculated.

2. Cropping pattern at taluka level for the study area i.e. hot dry semi arid agro

ecological zone was described using agricultural land use data. Crop concentration

analysis (Bhatia, 1968) was used to understand the areal distribution of crops.

Special emphasis was on the study area i.e. hot dry semi-arid agro ecological zone.

Regression analysis was carried out for crop area and yield data for thirty seven

years.

3. Water balance was computed using meteorological data for major kharif and rabi

dry land crops in the study area by following soil water balance model (Doorenbos

and Pruitt, 1977)

4. Estimation of acreage of major rabi crops in the study area was done using satellite

data i.e. IRS P6 LISS III satellite imageries for the study area in February month have

been analysed using DIP software (ERDAS Imagine 9.0) and image processing and

digital classification was performed.

5. Land evaluation and suitability study for the major crops has been carried out using

Analytical Hierarchy Process in Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technology in

13 GIS. The criteria were texture, drainage, soil depth, relief, pH, slope, erosion, coarse

fragments and flooding. The crops chosen were bajra (pearlmillet), rabi sorghum

and wheat. The land suitability evaluation resulted into suitability zones as per the

soil-rainfall and ecological requirements.

6. A study of factors influencing crop production and cost/benefit analysis for major

crops based on primary data has been carried out.

Spatio-temporal analysis of Cropping pattern in hot dry semi-arid agro-ecological subregion of Maharashtra State using Geoinformatics

Socio­ Spatio-temporal Water Crop Land economic Cropping pattern balance Inventory evaluation analysis J_ Multi-criteria Regression and Temporal Spatial Water deficit, Digital image decision %2 analysis, Variation Variation WRSI % analysis making based co st benefit onAHP analysis VOC, CGR CI, °/o GCA computation computation Land suitability Topographic assessment Meteorological data, Ground Primary Crop area data data, soil data, truth data, survey (37 years), maps of crop coefficient IRS P6 LISS III data and Values Spatial layers Rainfall, Irrigation, Soils, satellite image yield data of land and soil Drainage and Elevation and crops data data quality

Figure 1.8: Conceptual framework of methodology

1.7 Framework of the thesis

The first chapter contains the introduction to the topic and the region. It deals with the description of climate, relief, drainage, soils, irrigation and general landuse. It also covers objectives, broad methodology and scope and limitations of the study. Chapter two explains the temporal variation of the major crops in the study area in the temporal context. The volume of change describes the decadal and total change in area for major crops in the study area. Similarly, CGR (compound rate of growth) was calculated for area under the major crops. Chapter three gives emphasis on crop phenology and spatial distribution of the major crops taluka level. Concentration of crop area for five time periods has been studied.

Chapter four deals with the assessment of reference crop evapo-transpiration (ETo), crop water requirements (ETcrop) and soil water balance for three major kharif and 14 rabi dry land crops and their sustainability in the region. The crops included are bajra

(pearl millet), kharif sorghum and rabi sorghum. Water requirement for each crop has been calculated for the region using climatic data and it was related to the productivity of the crop.

Chapter five pertains to acreage estimation of land use land cover categories including agricultural crops and other land use using satellite images, (IRS P6, LISS III, 2008), based on ground truth data, spectral signature generation, supervised classification using maximum likelihood classifier and accuracy assessment. Crop inventory, discrimination of major crops and acreage estimation during rabi season in the hot dry semi arid agro ecological subregion are also discussed.

Chapter six is devoted to the assessment of land and soil suitability with limiting factors for major kharif and rabi crops (bajra, wheat and sorghum) in the study area. FAO land evaluation, following multi-criteria analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is discussed. Nine criteria of land and soil-site requirements viz. soil texture, depth, drainage, erosion class, slope, coarse fragments, pH, EC and organic carbon are used and discussed. Spatial layers of every criteria and suitability factors for every soil mapping unit are generated and discussed using spatial analysis in 6IS environment.

Chapter seven assesses the influence of some related factors on crop production. Using the field work data cost-benefit analysis for major crops has also been presented.

Chapter eight contains summary and conclusions. This is followed by bibliography and appendices.

1.8 Scope of the study

This study attempts to explain the cropping pattern of semi arid agro-ecological subregion in the spatio-temporal context. For this study the digital agricultural census has been generated which will be useful for researchers and government officials for understanding the change of pattern for each crop at taluka level in the study area.

This study will provide guidelines for identifying better crop combination to increase^ production. It will help to identify most suitable sites for major crops and also the marginally suitable land under those crops requiring specific management practices.

15 1.9 Limitations of database

The agricultural data at taluka level which have been analysed problems of missing data for kharif or rabi season and sometimes for a full year. Similarly, the data are not available at village level in digital format.

The meteorological data especially surface data are not available at taluka level hence use of the available district level data gives generalised effect.

The satellite data used in this analysis is LISS III (spatial resolution = 23.5 m). It is possible to use LISS IV (spatial resolution = 5.8 m) data for the analysis. However, these data are more costly and also more images are required to cover the study area.

The land suitability of crops is carried out using maps on 1:50000 scale. For final details, large scale maps at 1:10000 are more useful.

Acreage estimation of land use/ land cover categories in kharif season could not be undertaken due to the problem of cloud cover obscuring the details on the satellite images.

I ft