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Sun TV Network Ltd Sun TV Network Ltd. BUY Target Price `625 CMP `410 FY15 PE 15.1x Index Details We initiate coverage on Sun TV Network Ltd (Sun TV) as a BUY Sensex 19,242 with a price Objective of `625 representing a potential upside of Nifty 5,848 ~52.4% over a period of 24 months. At a CMP of `410, the stock is BSE 100 5,908 trading at 22.2x and 18.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 and Industry Media FY14 respectively. With ~2 mn households in Chennai (1.3-1.5 mn cable subscribers and 0.5 mn DTH subscribers) and ~11 mn Scrip Details subscribers in five cities of Phase II (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mysore, Coimbatore and Vishakhapatnam), Sun TV is expected to Mkt Cap (` cr) 16,138 be one of the biggest beneficiaries of impending digitisation in BVPS ( ) 63.7 ` these geographies. Sun TV’s revenues are expected to grow at a O/s Shares (Cr) 39.4 CAGR of 14.6% to `2,778.0 crore with cable subscription revenues Av Vol (Lacs) 2.1 growing at a CAGR of 30.2% while DTH is expected to grow at a 52 Week H/L 431/177 CAGR of 21.6% by FY15. In line with revenues, PAT is expected to Div Yield (%) 2.3 grow at a 15.6% CAGR from `692.9 crore in FY12 to `1,070.6 crore FVPS (`) 5.0 by FY15. Shareholding Pattern Digitisation to provide fillip to Sun TV’s subscription revenues Shareholders % Near term triggers from the implementation of digitisation in Phase I (Chennai) and Promoters 77.0 Phase II cities should help boost Sun TV’s subscription revenues. With ~2 mn DIIs 2.1 households in Chennai (~1.3-1.5 mn cable subscribers and ~0.5 mn DTH subscribers) and ~11 mn subscribers in five cities of Phase II (Bangalore, FIIs 14.2 Hyderabad, Mysore, Coimbatore and Vishakhapatnam), Sun TV is well placed to Public 6.7 benefit from the incremental subscriber additions. We expect Sun TV to be one of STOCK POINTER Total 100.0 the biggest beneficiaries of digitisation and revenues are expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 14.6% to `2,778.0 crore (cable subscription revenues – 30.2% CAGR to `360 crore; DTH – 21.6% CAGR to `598 crore) by FY15. Sun TV vs. Sensex We believe that the cable subscription income is expected to outperform DTH revenue stream owing to increase in paying subscribers post digitisation (by 31st Dec, 2012) and increased contribution of ~`2.5 crore per month (with upside risk) from Arasu Cable network in Tamil Nadu. Given the potential for deeper penetration of DTH services in the company’s key markets, the DTH revenue is likely to continue its momentum. The sharp jump in subscription revenues from 28.2% of total sales in FY12 to 35.8% in FY15 should bring more visibility and sustainability to the revenues besides providing diversification of revenue streams. Key Financials (` in Cr) Net EPS Growth RONW ROCE P/E EV/EBITDA Y/E Mar EBITDA PAT EPS Revenue (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) 2012 1,847.2 1,414.2 692.9 17.6 - 27.6 38.7 23.3 11.2 2013E 2,035.1 1,550.6 727.5 18.5 5.1 26.2 37.2 22.2 10.2 2014E 2,390.7 1,840.7 890.8 22.6 22.2 27.7 39.6 18.1 8.6 2015E 2,778.1 2,149.1 1,070.6 27.2 20.4 28.0 40.2 15.1 7.4 - 1 of 18 - Friday 21st December, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Advertising revenues to witness traction going ahead Over FY08-FY11, Sun TV’s ad revenues grew at a faster rate of 27.6% CAGR compared to the ~20% of the `3,105 crore South Indian ad market (Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada). However, in FY12, in addition to the slowdown, uncertainty over Arasu Cable led to a total blackout of Sun TV’s channels on the cable platform in the entire state of Tamil Nadu (except Chennai) which affected ad revenues adversely. Post Sun TV’s deal with Arasu in August, 2012, ad revenues are likely to return to a steady state growth rate. Going ahead, the regional TV ad market growth is likely to outpace the national TV ad market as the potential of growth in consumption of various products is greater in regional markets. In addition, Sun TV’s competitive position in terms of premium pricing power (e.g. ad rate of ~`43,000/10sec v/s `7,500-`10,000/10 sec of immediate competitor in Tamil Nadu) reaffirms our confidence that the company will maintain its leadership position as well as achieve growth momentum. We expect Sun TV’s ad revenue to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% to `1,304.5 crore from `945.4 crore over the period of FY13-FY15 on the back of improved ad spends and increased visibility in Tamil Nadu (TN being the biggest regional ad market). Valuation We initiate coverage on Sun TV Network Ltd (Sun TV) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `625 representing a potential upside of ~52.4% over a period of 24 months. At a CMP of `410, the stock is trading at 22.2x and 18.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 respectively. Going ahead, pick up in advertising revenues and digitisation led boost to subscription revenues bode well for the company. Historically, the stock has traded at an average of ~23x one year forward earnings and we expect Sun TV to garner similar multiples going ahead. Moreover, we believe that the sharp underperformance by Sun TV v/s ZEEL (since May, 2011) prices in the political and legal risks associated with the company. We expect the valuation gap to narrow and expect Sun TV to trade at its historical levels owing to its robust business model. st - 2 of 18 - Friday 21 December, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Company Background Sun TV Network is one of the largest television broadcasters in India with a strong network of 32 television channels and 45 FM radio stations across India. For more than a decade now, Sun TV due to its extremely popular offering has been dominating the broadcasting space in the four key South Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala (leader in 3 out of 4 markets). Recently, in 2008, Sun TV forayed into the movie business through its division, Sun Pictures. In October, 2012, Sun TV bought the Hyderabad IPL team for `425.5 crore which is to be paid over five years till FY17. Sun TV’s Product Offerings Sun TV Product Offerings Radio Business Television Business Movies & 32 channels Distribution 45 radio Stations 59.2% (All over India) 97.8% South Asia Tamil Telugu Kannada Malayalam Kal Radio FM Channels Channels Channels Channels (Southern Market) (Rest of India) (~Rs 1170)* (~Rs 800)* (~Rs 560)* (~Rs 575)* Sun Pictures Suryan owns ~ 9500 Fm movies titles RED Gemini TV Radio Sun TV Gemini FM 93.5 Sun TV Surya HD TV HD Udaya Udaya TV Movies TV Gemini Gemini 49% KTV KTV HD Movies Music beneficial Kiran Udaya Interest TV Music Udaya Sun Music News Sun Music HD Gemini Gemini News Comedy Strategic Alliance Sun News Adithya Kochu with RED FM Udaya Chintu TV Comedy Kushi Gemini TV Action Sun 3 Radio Stations Chutti TV Action in Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkata Surya Gemini Suriyan Action TV Sun Life Sun TV RI Life * Ad Market size Source: Sun TV, Ventura Research st - 3 of 18 - Friday 21 December, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. Key Investment Highlights Digitisation to provide fillip to Sun TV’s subscription revenues The non-existence of a proper addressable system had resulted in significant under reporting (~85% of `18,000 crore market size) of the subscribers base by LCO’s (Local Cable Operator) in turn leading to lower revenue realizations for MSO’s and broadcasters. This revenue leakage had not only impacted broadcasters and MSOs but also the GoI (Government of India) in form of lost taxation. The new system of DAS (Digital Addressable System), which has become a reality now (Phase I successfully implemented, except in Chennai), will drastically change the fortunes of the industry ensuring that all negatives regarding reporting of subscribers is done away with. Under DAS, the entire universe of subscribers will now be uniquely recognized leading to a multifold jump in the subscribers. This coupled with the growth of the TV households from ~153 mn to ~188 mn by 2016 and paid C&S TV household penetration levels expected to increase to 89% from the current ~76% should improve the visibility on revenue growth and profitability of the sector as a whole. Broadcasters to benefit from growth TV households & increased penetration 188 200 90% 89% 180 153 12 8 160 145 85% 140 120 78% 80% 86 100 76% 80 21 75% 8 60 26 8 40 46 75 70% 20 37 19 0 6 65% 2011 2012P 2016E Digital Cable DTH DD Direct IPTV Non C&S Analog cable Paid C&S Penetration Source: Sun TV, Ventura Research Sun TV to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of digitisation We expect Sun TV to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of digitisation and revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.6% to `2,778.0 crore with cable subscription revenues growing at a CAGR of 30.2% to `360 crore while DTH is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.6% to `598.3 crore by FY15.
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