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Sun TV Initiatingcoverage Initiating Coverage Sector: Media RESEARCH BSE Sensex: 19,471 RESEARCH BUY CMP Rs423 Sun TV Network Ltd. TP Rs515 Make hay, the Sun is shining bright… 21 April 2011 Sun TV, the leader in India's largest entertainment market - Namrata Sharma +91-22-6618 6412 South India, outpaced South Indian TV ad industry growth [email protected] rate. In the Rs27bn South Indian TV ad market, Sun TV's ad revenue witnessed 30% CAGR over FY07-FY10 v/s 20% industry Sakshee Chhabra +91-22-6618 6633 growth (Tamil, Telugu, Kannada & Malayalam). Its competitive [email protected] position of premium pricing power and a ‘must’ platform for national and local advertisers underpins our belief that Sun TV will maintain its leading position and growth momentum. Digitization to boost subscription revenue We believe subscription revenue should grow at a robust pace due to increased level of digitization in DTH and digital cable segments. STOCK DATA Subscription revenue saw a healthy 27% CAGR over FY07-FY10 led by strong thrust from the DTH segment. Favorable market pull Market Cap Rs166.7bn. factors would further assist in expanding the DTH subscriber base Book Value per share Rs 50.1 and fall in subscription revenue leakages will enhance cable revenue. Eq Shares O/S (F.V. Rs5) 394 mn. We expect subscription to register 27% CAGR over FY10-FY13E. Free Float 23% Unique business model ensures strong margins and low risks Avg Traded Value (6 mnths) Rs209.5mn 52 week High/Low Rs556.5/370.6 Sun TV’s unique slot sale model has helped it to keep content cost at Bloomberg Code SUNTV:IN it’s minimum. It sells it’s prime time ad inventory for an upfront charge Reuters Code SUTV.BO to content providers, ensuring revenue and protecting rising content cost without compromising on quality of the content. This successful model ensures robust margins and lowers business risks. Robust financial growth TOP SHAREHOLDERS We expect Sun TV's revenue to deliver 19% CAGR during FY10- Name % holding FY13E, owing to growth of 19% in ad revenue and 27% in A Indira Anand 2.2 subscription revenue. We see OPM at 76% and NPM at 38% for FY12E and FY13E. We believe the company's ROE and ROCE will Bharathi Kovelamudi 2.9 remain strong at 31% and 46% over FY12E and FY13E respectively. Selvam Selvi 2.0 VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION Shanmugamsundaram Selvam 1.8 With strong business growth, business model with lowest risk and highest margins in the industry, we believe Sun TV will continue to attract premium valuation vis-à-vis peers. At CMP, the stock trades at 18xFY13E EPS. We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY PERFORMANCE (%) Initiating Coverage recommendation and a target price of Rs515 based on 21.7xP/E to 1M 3M 12M FY13E EPS, valuing the company at 1x PEG (FY10-FY13E). Absolute (3.7) (15.9) 0.6 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn Relative (8.3) (16.5) (8.1) FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Net Sales 10,394 14,528 19,825 20,713 24,553 RELATIVE PERFORMANCE YoY Gr. (%) 19.5 39.8 36.5 4.5 18.5 Op. Profit 7,368 10,909 15,647 15,828 18,785 Sun TV BSE (Rebased) Op. Margin (%) 70.9 75.1 78.9 76.4 76.5 660 Adj. Net Profit 3,683 5,199 7,720 7,798 9,380 YoY Gr. (%) 12.7 41.2 48.5 1.0 20.3 520 KEY RATIOS 380 Dil. EPS (Rs) 9.3 13.2 19.6 19.8 23.8 ROCE (%) 34.1 41.5 51.1 45.2 46.2 240 ROE (%) 23.4 28.3 35.5 30.3 31.0 PER (x) 45.3 32.1 21.6 21.4 17.8 100 EV/Sales (x) 15.8 11.2 8.2 7.7 6.5 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Ev/EBDITA (x) 22.2 14.9 10.4 10.1 8.5 PINC Research reports are also available on Reuters, Thomson Publishers and Bloomberg PINV <GO> 1 RESEARCH Sun TV Network Ltd. Investment rationale Dominance in the South Indian Ad Market Sun TV one of the biggest broadcasters, has a dominant presence in the largest entertainment market – South India. Sun TV outpaced the South Indian Industry growth rate. Over FY07-FY10, Sun TV’s ad revenue augmented 30% CAGR, whereas the Rs27bn South Indian (Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada) ad market has been growing at 20%. Sun TV’s competitive position in terms of premium pricing power and a strong platform it offers the national and local advertisers underpins our belief that the company will maintain its leading position and growth momentum. Exhibit 1- South India Advertisement Market Share South India Tamil Telugu Kannada Malayalam Total South Ad Market size CY09 (Rs bn) 9 7 3 3.5 22.5 Ad Market size CY10 (Rs bn) 10 7 5 5 27 Sun TV’s ad market share is YoY growth (%) 11% 0% 67% 43% 20% 35% of the total South No. of Channels (approx.) 38 36 21 25 120 Indian 27bn TV ad market... Sun TV Channels 6 6 6 2 20 Viewer ship share of top 3 players 88% 78% 77% 94% Viewer ship share of Sun TV channels 70% 40% 42% 34% Source: Company, FICCI-KPMG 2011, PINC Research We believe the regional TV ad market growth will outpace the national TV ad market as the potential of growth in consumption of various products is greater in regional markets. Thus, Sun TV being the number one broadcaster in the most attractive key markets of South India – Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka, will benefit the most. Moreover its pole position in majority of the south markets makes it vital for any advertiser. With a strong lead in Southern markets, we see the company sustain its current ad growth traction. We estimate 19% CAGR over FY10-FY13E under the current economic scenario. Exhibit 2- Strong Ad revenue growth posted Ad rev enue (LHS) Grow th (YoY) 2800 80% 2100 60% 1400 40% Rs mn Rs 700 20% 0 0% Q4FY08 Q1FY09 Q2FY09 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Source: Company, PINC Research [email protected] 2 RESEARCH Sun TV Network Ltd. Exhibit 3- Double digit Ad Revenue growth expected going forward... Ad rev enue (LHS) Growth (YoY) 16000 40% 12000 30% 8000 20% Rs mn Rs 4000 10% 0 0% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Source: Company, PINC Research Digitization to boost subscription revenue We believe subscription revenue should grow at a robust pace due to increased level of digitization in the DTH and digital cable segments. Subscription revenue observed a stolid 27% CAGR over FY07-FY10 led by strong thrust from the DTH (73% YoY 9MFY11) and cable segment (43% YoY 9MFY11). Favorable market pull factors would further assist in expanding the DTH subscriber base and fall in subscription revenue leakages. We expect subscription growth to stay high at 27% CAGR over FY10-FY13E. Exhibit 4- Quarterly Subscription Revenue trend Total Subscription rev enue (LHS) Grow th (YoY) 1400 80% 1200 60% 1000 40% Rs mn 800 20% 600 0% 400 -20% Q4FY08 Q1FY09 Q2FY09 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Source: Company, PINC Research [email protected] 3 RESEARCH Sun TV Network Ltd. Exhibit 5- Robust Subscription Revenue growth expected... Total Subscription rev enue Grow th (YoY) 8000 75% Subscription revenue registered a 27% CAGR 6000 55% over FY07-FY10... 4000 35% Rs mn 2000 15% 0 -5% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Source: Company, PINC Research DTH revenue: An immense opportunity… Sun TV being one of the largest Indian broadcasters has benefited from increasing penetration of digital distribution. Moreover, its favorable position in South India provides it an additional Subscriber base increased from 1.1mn in FY08 to advantage. More than 60% of its DTH revenue is from Sun Direct (a promoter group company), current base of 6.7mn a major player in the South Indian market. Its subscriber base has grown from 1.1mn in FY08 subscribers... to 6.7mn in Q3FY11, a whopping increase of more than 5x in a 30.6mn subscriber market. Given the tremendous opportunity of further penetration of DTH services in the current markets of Sun TV, we expect this segment to grow at 32% CAGR during FY10-13E and contribute 18% to the overall top line in FY13E. Cable Revenue: To grow further… The company has delivered moderately strong cable revenue growth despite under-reporting of subscribers’ base and subscription revenue leakages (43% YoY growth during 9MFY11). We believe tough competition from DTH operators would help in checking subscription revenue leakages and enable the company to sustain its growth rate. We expect this segment to deliver 21% CAGR over FY10-FY13E. Exhibit 6- Sustainable Cable Revenues vs Dynamic DTH Revenues 1600 DTH rev enue Cable revenue 1200 800 Rs mn Rs 400 0 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Source: Company, PINC Research [email protected] 4 RESEARCH Sun TV Network Ltd. Exhibit 7- Strong growth ahead for both DTH and Cable DTH rev enue Cable rev enue 5000 4100 3200 Rs mn 2300 1400 500 FY08 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E Source: Company, PINC Research International Subscription: Expanding presence outside India.. Sun TV already has presence in countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Canada, Sri Lanka, the UK, South Africa, Australia, Europe and the US. Further penetration into new markets and steady growth in current markets would augment its international subscription revenue.
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