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Municipal Council of Maputo Republic of Mozambique Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Final Report Volume 3 Technical Reports March 2014 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY PADECO Co., Ltd. Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. EI JR 14-081 Exchange Rate used in this Report: 1 USD = 30.25 MT 1 USD =100 JPY (September 2013) Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Reports Contents Technical Reports Technical Report A: Socio-Economic Framework Technical Report B: Greater Maputo’s Growth Trends and Land Use Technical Report C: City Planning Regulations and Practices Technical Report D: Development Framework Technical Report E: Road Sector Technical Report F: Public Transport Improvement Technical Report G: Traffic Control, Management and Safety Technical Report H: Financing Options and Strategies Technical Report I: Institutional and Capacity Development Issues in the Urban Transport Development Process Technical Report J: Strategic Environmental Assessment on Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Report K: Transport and Traffic Surveys: Methodology and Analysis Technical Report L: Geographic Information System (GIS) Technical Report M: Transport/Traffic Database Technical Report N: Demand Forecasting: Methodology and Analysis Technical Report O: Multi-Criteria Analysis and Economic Evaluation Technical Report P: Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): The Japanese Experience i Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Reports ii Technical Report A Socio-Economic Framework Contents A.1 Introduction................................................................................................................. A-1 A.2 Population ................................................................................................................... A-3 A.3 Employment ................................................................................................................ A-5 A.4 Enrolment ................................................................................................................... A-8 A.5 Economic Performance.............................................................................................. A-12 A.6 Urban Poverty and Transport ..................................................................................... A-18 Figures Figure A.1 Population Projection in Urban and Rural Area in Mozambique ....................... A-2 Figure A.2 Urban and Rural Population in Mozambique Projected by UN and INE between 2010 and 2050 .................................................................................... A-3 Figure A.3 Population Growth by Municipality/District 2007 and 2035 ............................. A-4 Figure A.4 Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in 2009 by Province: Constant Prince in 2003 (in Percent of the National GDP) ............................................ A-12 Figure A.5 Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by Province between 2000 and 2009: Constant Price in 2003 (10,000 MT) ..................................................... A-13 Figure A.6 GDP and GRDP Growth Rate in Maputo City, Maputo Province, and Mozambique between 2001 and 2009............................................................. A-14 Figure A.7 Increase of GDP per Capita by Province between 2000 and 2009 (Current Price, MT) ..................................................................................................... A-14 Figure A.8 GRDP per Capita by Province in 2009 (Current Price, MT) ............................ A-15 Tables Table A.1 Urban Population in the Eastern and Southern African Countries ...................... A-2 Table A.2 Current and Future Population Projected by INE (2012–2035) ......................... A-4 Table A.3 Current and Future Population Growth Rate Projected by INE (2012–2035) ..... A-4 Table A.4 Projected Employment Growth Rate (%) in Project Area (2012–2035) ............. A-6 A-i Table A.5 Estimated Working Population (by Residence) ................................................. A-6 Table A.6 Estimated Working Population (at Work Place) ................................................ A-7 Table A.7 Breakdown of Employment in the Project Area (2007–2035) ........................... A-7 Table A.8 Estimated Student Population ........................................................................... A-9 Table A.9 Enrolment in the Project Area (2007–2035) .................................................... A-10 Table A.10 GDP and GRDP Growth Rates by Province between 2001 and 2009 .............. A-13 Table A.11 GDP/GRDP Growth Projection (2012–2035) ................................................. A-16 Table A.12 GDP/GRDP Growth Projection (2012–2035) ................................................. A-17 Table A.13 Percentage Structure of GDP by Industry in Mozambique (2009–2035) (%) ... A-17 Table A.14 GDP by Industry in Mozambique (2009–2035, Constant Price in 2003) (Million MT) ................................................................................................. A-18 Table A.15 Poverty Incidence (Headcount Index) in the Project Area and Mozambique .... A-19 Table A.16 Inequality by GINI Coefficient in Mozambique .............................................. A-19 A-ii Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Report A Technical Report A Socio-Economic Framework A.1 Introduction This section covers the demographic framework which includes population growth, employment (workers) growth and enrolment (student) growth which is important to determine growth and changes in commute patterns. Furthermore, this section looks at economic growth (GDP/GRDP), which is also important to determining shifts in urban mobility and modality. A.1.1 Urbanization in the Southern African Countries Mozambique has been undergoing a general development towards urbanization. The Southern African region is the most urbanized region in the Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the Census 2007, around 31% of the total population in Mozambique lives in the urban areas. In 2011, Mozambique was ranked as the 8th urbanized country among the 12 Southern African countries as shown in Table A.11. The average percentage of urban population in the Southern African countries in 2011 was 37.8%, and Mozambique was more urbanized compared to its neighbouring countries such as Malawi, Tanzania and Swaziland. 1 There is no internationally recognized criterion to define urban areas. The United Nations (UN) document states “given the variety of situations in countries of the world, it is not possible or desirable to adopt uniform criteria to distinguish urban areas from rural areas”. In order to improve the comparability of measurements of city population across countries, the UN uses a concept of “urban agglomeration”, which refers to “the population contained within the contours of contiguous territory inhabited at urban levels of residential density”. United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2011 Revision, Methodology, 2012. A-1 Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Report A Table A.1: Urban Population in the Eastern and Southern African Countries Population 2011 (thousands) Percentage Urbanization Major area, region, country or area Urban Rural Total urban Ranking Sub-Saharan Africa 309,463 533,786 843,249 36.7 Selected Southern African Countries 85,264 125,640 210,904 37.8 Angola 11,613 8,006 19,618 59.2 3 Botswana 1,252 779 2,031 61.7 2 Lesotho 605 1,589 2,194 27.6 9 Madagascar 6,941 14,374 21,315 32.6 7 Malawi 2,410 12,971 15,381 15.7 12 Mozambique 7,463 16,467 23,930 31.2 8 Namibia 892 1,432 2,324 38.4 6 South Africa 31,282 19,178 50,460 62.0 1 Swaziland 256 948 1,203 21.2 11 Tanzania 12,351 33,867 46,218 26.7 10 Zambia 5,276 8,199 13,475 39.2 4 Zimbabwe 4,924 7,830 12,754 38.6 5 Sources: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision A.1.2 Population Growth Trend in Mozambique According to the United Nation’s (UN) data, the urban population in Mozambique is projected to reach at 50% of the total population by 2050 as shown in Figure A.1. This growing urbanization may result from a natural growth of population, economic development, and the development of urban-based economic activities. The population growth rate in the urban areas will gradually decrease to 1.2% in 2030 and to 0.3% in 2050 when the society matures as developed countries. The population projection undertaken by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) has a different perspective regarding the rural population growth. INE projects the urban population will grow by 3.44% between 2010 and 2015 on average. The growth rate will gradually decrease to 2.5% by 2025, and 2.1% by 2040, which are the similar projection to that of the UN. However, the rural population will continue to grow at the same growth rate as the urban areas between 2020 and 2040. Figure A.2 compares the projected population in rural and urban areas by the UN and INE between 2010 and 2050. The population in Mozambique is projected to attain 29.3 million by 2020, and 46.2 million by 2035. Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, and the 2011 Revision. Figure A.1: Population Projection in Urban and Rural Area in Mozambique A-2 Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Technical Report A Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision; Data from INE. Figure A.2: Urban and Rural Population in Mozambique
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