2016 STAR VALLEY ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
2016
Authors Summary
Star Valley has recovered from the sharp market downturn in 2009 when the hard reality of the Great Recession swept though the local economy like a grim reaper. The local economy realized a very slow and marginal recovery until early 2014 when hints of improved economic growth began to emerge. The Star Valley economic recovery continues through today: area population is growing again, unemployment is reaching historic lows at 4.5%, liquidity appears to be increasing, local inflation is tolerable, jobs are available, and real estate prices are increasing. Overall, these indicate a fairly robust and bright local economy.
However, there are significant headwinds developing. The clouds are generally macro issues originating outside the Star Valley economy. The State of Wyoming is now feeling the real impacts of the low energy prices and the “war on coal” causing reduced state income and reduced employment as mining activity and rig counts have fallen. The Wyoming state income from mineral activity is directly correlated to local and county governmental jobs and activity given that the state is a primary funding source. Government, which has been a growing sector, is now realizing a reduction as revenues decline.
The Federal Reserve continues to communicate a desire to raise interest rates even though European and Asian central banks are now experimenting with negative interest rates. Today, the U.S. economy is showing very marginal growth, with what the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently called the “Weakest Recovery Since ’49.” U.S. gross domestic product grew at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of only 1.2% in the second quarter, 2016. The WSJ article stated, “Economic growth is now tracking at a 1% rate in 2016 – the weakest start to a year since 2011. That makes for an annual average rate of 2.1% growth since the end of the recession, the weakest pace of any expansion since at least 1949” (Morath 2016). With weakening economic growth comes the increased potential for a future recession. The probability of a national recession within the next one to two years is now very real.
The larger commercial construction projects that began in 2015 are now winding down with the final openings of two new motels in Afton and the pending completion of a Latter-day Saint temple this fall.
The residential housing market continues to be hot as measured by both the number of new starts and housing prices. With increasing real estate prices as high as 23% in 2016 the authors are increasingly concerned that the residential market may be moving into the "excessive exuberance" stage and overheating. While housing prices are increasing and listing periods are shortening, the residential market, to date, has not experienced the speculative aspect seen in the 2000 to 2007 period. Most homes are being built or sold for owner-occupied purposes, not for rental or flipping objectives. This observation, if true, may indicate that Star Valley has developed a housing inventory issue mainly due to years with little new-home construction where affordable housing for a population of moderate income is becoming harder to find.
Star Valley continues to see changes in its population demographics and economic base - with an economic progression that began with agriculture moved toward mining/manufacturing, and now is based on tourism and retirement services. At the same time, the Star Valley economy is growing closer and closer to the Jackson economy with an ever larger part of the work force employed in Teton County. Due to the cost of living in Teton County, the merging of the two areas will continue as more of the area labor force lives in Star Valley. This progression will bring increased income inequality - an issue Star Valley has been relatively free from.
Change is inevitable, and our beautiful valley is not immune. The beauty, good people, favorable economic conditions, and small-town American feel of Star Valley almost guarantee future opportunity and a bright future, albeit a little more crowded each year.
Whitney Webb Marcus Weber en Special Projects Assistant Vice President President Co-Author Co-Author Co-Author
SPECIAL THANKS
In order to gain a more complete picture of the economic condition of Star Valley, the Bank of Star Valley relies on many individuals, businesses, and government entities to provide information and data. The Bank wants to express gratitude to those who helped provide the information and data and thank them for their time, assistance, and patience.
Lincoln County School District #2
Thayne Senior Center
Salt River Senior Center
1st Bank
Aviat Aircraft
Freedom Arms
J.R. Simplot
Lincoln County Government
Lower Valley Energy
Silver Star Communications
Polyguard & RMP Mobile
Wells Fargo
PC Industries
Star Valley Medical Center
Star Valley Independent
Lincoln County Assessor
Lincoln County Planning and Zoning
Town of Afton
Town of Alpine
Town of Thayne
Town of Alpine
Town of Star Valley Ranch
Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates
Alliance Title
Local Landlords
Big Country Realty
This analysis was a collaborative effort by Whitney Webb, Special Projects Assistant, Marcus Weber, Bank of Star Valley Vice President, and Rod Jensen, Bank of Star Valley President
INDEX Demographics ...... 1 Population ...... 1 Population Composition ...... 8 Education ...... 12 55 Year and Older Population ...... 14 Domicile Location...... 16 Employment/Wages ...... 17 Earnings by Industry...... 19 Personal Compensation by Industry ...... 21 Per Capita Income ...... 22 Poverty Level ...... 25 Average Wage Per Job ...... 26 Unemployment ...... 27 Area Employers ...... 30 Employment Advertising ...... 31 Market Liquidity ...... 32 Cost of Living ...... 35 Inflation ...... 39 State and Local Tax ...... 41 Misery Index ...... 43 Wyoming Economy ...... 44 Coal Impacts ...... 44 Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG) Summary ...... 46 Real Estate ...... 49 Property Taxes for Select Properties ...... 49 New Home Construction ...... 50 Utility Connections ...... 51 Real Estate Transaction Summary ...... 52 Residential Home Transactions ...... 53 Building Lot Transactions ...... 56 Private Sales ...... 57 Foreclosure Activity ...... 59 Rental Costs ...... 63 Mortgage Filings...... 64 Article References ...... 66
2016 STAR VALLEY ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW
INTRODUCTION
The Bank of Star Valley periodically performs a demographic and economic review of its market area, being Star Valley, Wyoming and Idaho – more specifically the Northern half of Lincoln County, Wyoming, and the Star Valley areas of Caribou and Bonneville Idaho Counties. This report reviews Star Valley demographic dynamics, employment, income levels, cost-of-living considerations, national and state economic trends, as well as current real estate trends.
The Bank shares this report with individuals and businesses by posting the report on the Bank’s website, bosv.com. However, any reader should exercise care in relying upon the findings of this report, as they may reflect biases and potential misinterpretation of the data by the authors. A regional economic study, due to the complexity of the subject and its infinite scenarios, is by its very nature limited in scope.
POPULATION
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, the population of Lincoln County, Wyoming, has been growing steadily since 1970. Prior to 1970, the Lincoln County population was showing a declining trend. The last census, performed in 2010, counted 18,106 people that call Lincoln County home. In comparison to 2000’s census 14,573 headcount, that constitutes a 24.20% increase, or an additional 3,533 people.
Population growth directly impacts, and is correlated to, the general economic vitality of a community. Economic growth is enabled by increases in overall aggregate community wealth, aggregate income, spending power, and the increased demand for goods and services. The higher demand for goods and services tends to increase the required labor force, and the creation of jobs, again, potentially encourages population growth. On the other hand, population stagnation or reduction has the opposite effect on economic growth.
The U.S. Census population count for Lincoln County, Wyoming, for the period of 1920 to 2010 is shown below. It is interesting that it took 70 years for the Lincoln County population to
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 1 nearly match the 1920 census. It was around 1970 when the structural change in the Star Valley economy began with the slow but steady transition from an agricultural – dairy driven area to a more residential, consumer based community with the creation of Star Valley Ranch and other housing developments. Also, the change in population is tied to the growth of the Jackson Hole tourist market and Star Valley evolving into a bedroom community to Jackson.
Lincoln County Population by U.S. Census Count
20,000
15,000
10,000
18,106
5,000 14,573
12,625
12,487
12,177
10,894
10,266
9,023
9,018 8,640
0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: State of Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division
In the nine year gap between official census years, the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information’s Economic Analysis Division (EAD) estimates the annual population. The graph below depicts EAD’s estimations from 2010 to 2015 for Lincoln County.
EAD estimated that Lincoln County’s population declined from 2010 to 2012, following the great recession of 2008 which hit the real estate market in Star Valley very hard with up to a 30% real estate market value decline. However, EAD then estimated that population started to show positive growth again around 2013. Although the estimated growth rate has slowed relative to that seen between 2000 and 2010, it has remained positive with an estimated 0.90% change between 2014 and 2015.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 2 Lincoln County Population 18,900 18,722 18,700 18,564 18,500 18,328 18,300 18,106 18,022 18,100 17,943 17,900
17,700
17,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: State of Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division
Slow or negative population growth is an economic issue throughout some counties in Wyoming. On the other hand, Crook and Campbell counties are leading the state in estimated population growth with Teton and Lincoln counties following. When comparing this graph to the previous year, it is encouraging to see that there are fewer Wyoming counties with negative growth patterns. In the 2013-2014 period there were 10 counties with an estimated negative growth rate. The current report estimates that seven counties in Wyoming are now experiencing negative growth.
% Change in Population 2014-2015 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 0.7 1 0.4 0.1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -1.1 -2 -2.5 Source: State of Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division
Those seven Wyoming rural counties are following the national trend in rural area population decline. The graph below, from the U.S. Census Bureau, shows the general negative U.S. rural county population trend.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 3
Source: United States Census Bureau
This is worrisome for rural counties in general as population decline generally precedes economic stagnation, and Lincoln County is a rural county. Currently Lincoln County population growth is showing a positive trend, but the concern remains that this trend may adversely adjust with time.
The following graphic of the continental U.S., provided by ArcGIS.com, illustrates the negative growth rate of most rural counties. The redder color denotes ‘0% or negative’ growth. Much of the U.S. rural heartland is experiencing a loss of population as younger people move to more urban areas to pursue educational, social, and employment opportunities lacking in the rural areas. This is leaving a diminishing and aging rural population base. This results in rural loss of employment, closing of small businesses, and a fairly negative long-term economic outlook for these rural counties.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 4
Source: ArcGIS.com
The areas which are showing growth are predominately the West Coast, East Coast, and the Rocky Mountain regions. Wyoming, being part of the Rocky Mountain region, potentially has a brighter demographic future than it neighbors to the east, as it has experienced population growth. However, this trend may be reversing for many of the mineral extraction reliant Wyoming counties due to current low energy prices and the U.S. energy sectors movement away from coal for electrical generation. There is little doubt that with the falling coal demand and prices, Campbell County will not be a growth leader in the next data set.
It is interesting that both Bear Lake and Caribou, Idaho, Counties, which lie on the western Lincoln County, Wyoming border, are experiencing low to negative growth according to the graphic above.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 5 A portion of Lincoln County’s growth is attributable to the unique attractions of the Star Valley area, including the mountains, extensive Bridger-Teton and Caribou forests, and the general quality of life. For example, the Alpine Airpark, a growing residential aviation oriented community in Alpine, Wyoming, was recently featured in the national publication, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association magazine in a feature article entitled “Living a Western Life, The Uncommon Beauty of Wyoming’s Alpine Airpark” (June 2016). According to the article, there are currently about 70 homes and hangars in the airpark. The airpark is continuing to see growth (Haines 2016).
The article quotes resident Dave Hermel saying: “Hunting, fishing, hiking, world-class skiing, the Palisades – 17 miles long – even a rugby field. This is the greatest recreational area in the world. We’re the gateway to the West” (Haines). Due to the uniqueness of Star Valley, the Alpine Airpark and other upper-end developments are growing. These developments attract successful and talented individuals to Star Valley. This growth does correspond to employment opportunities and the general overall long-term economic growth of the Valley.
SV Population Estimate
The Bank has created a population model that has historically been remarkably accurate. The model was originally developed to forecast the 2010 population based on the 2000 census. The model projected Star Valley’s 2010 population to be 12,775. The actual 2010 census population reported 12,578. Because of this success, the model was used to attempt to project Star Valley population to 2030 using the 2010 census as a base. The authors use four metrics to predict population growth:
Star Valley population growth at the same rate as Lincoln County at 0.90% as projected by EAD.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 6 Star Valley population growth at the same rate as the forecasts for the State of Wyoming at 0.30% under current EAD estimates. Star Valley population growth at the Lincoln County growth rate adjusted for the historical higher growth rate in Northern Lincoln County – resulting in an estimated growth rate of 1.50% Star Valley population growth at one-half of the rate it experienced from 2000 to 2010 of 2.42%, or an estimated growth rate of 1.21%.
The Bank’s model results are shown below. It estimated that Star Valley’s population as of year- end 2015 is approximately 13,080. As for potential population growth, the high growth rate scenario indicates that for 2020, the Star Valley population may be 14,158 individuals, and the low growth rate scenario forecasts a population of 13,750 individuals for 2020. The authors use the average of the four growth scenarios as the best indicator for the most likely population levels. Thus, it is estimated that Star Valley’s population will be 13,795 in 2020 and will continue to grow, reaching about 15,280 in 2030.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 7 POPULATION COMPOSITION
Total Lincoln County population, segmented by age groupings, for the years 2000, 2010 (U.S. Census counts), and 2015 (EAD Estimate) is shown below.
Lincoln County Population by Age 1800 2000 1600 Census
1400 2010
1200 Census 1000 2015 Estimate 800
# ofPeople # 600 400 200 0
Age
Source: United States Census Bureau
The population is not static because the graph does not simply move to the right over time. Rather, the population is also impacted by people moving in and out of the county. From the 2010 census to the 2015 estimate, there have been population declines in two critical age groups – the ‘20-34 year olds’ and the ‘40-50 year olds’. Individuals which constitute these age groups tend to be more risk tolerant, more entrepreneurial, and have families. While these two demographics are clearly above the 2000 census in total number, the decrease in their size since the 2010 census is of concern. It is felt by the authors that the decrease is directly related to the current lack of employment opportunities in Star Valley. Many of the Star Valley businesses are older, with very limited new, or start-up businesses. Therefore, these people tend to be economically pushed out of the area.
Not surprisingly, the 55 and over population is increasing over time – more than any other age group. Clearly, the Lincoln County population is getting older. This age shift affects the economy of Lincoln County because it modifies the goods and services demanded. Many people in this age range have selected Star Valley as a place to retire, and not necessarily to actively participate in the work force. These aging individuals demand, in aggregate, more health care services than other age groups. This increase in demand has been a driver for the economy as it adds medical and retirement service related jobs to the market. To confirm this point, the Star Valley Medical Center added 25 jobs in the last year.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 8 The chart below, created by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the spending characteristics, in total, of various age groups. Younger individuals, building households, spend a large portion of their income on housing, transportation, personal insurance and pensions. These expenses account for approximately 65% of income for those 25 to 44 years old. Conversely, those over 65 spend a much larger amount on healthcare services and cash contributions, and they spend less on housing, personal insurance and pensions, apparel, and food away from home. While most of the results of the chart are intuitive, the Bureau of Labor Statistics findings do provide data driven foundational support to differences in expenditures by age and an indication to which commercial sectors will do better with the aging population.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Both the number of births and deaths in Lincoln County increased in 2014 according to the Wyoming Department of Health. The total number of deaths was 125, and the number of births
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 9 was 244. As one would expect, the number of births increased steadily as the economy flourished before the Great Recession. When the economy fell, the number of births followed. 2014 is the first year since 2010 that the number of births has increased in comparison to the previous year.
The total number of deaths has remained somewhat consistent from year to year. However, since 2012, the number has been increasing, again reflecting an aging population. The trend of births and deaths between the years 2001 to 2014 is shown below.
Lincoln County Births and Deaths
350
300
250
200 Births 150 Deaths 100
50
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Births 178 212 217 227 251 275 298 296 263 274 247 243 228 244 Deaths 115 106 122 118 127 94 134 111 115 116 123 104 110 125
Source: Wyoming Department of Health
Both SuburbanStats.org and the U.S. Census Bureau perform an estimate of the populations by household types. They estimate the number of family led homes, single parent homes, and non-family homes. Below is a comparison of the family types for the United States (U.S. Census Bureau), Wyoming (SuburbanStats.org), Teton County (SuburbanStats.org), and Lincoln County (SuburbanStats.org) for 2016.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 10 Households by Type 120.0%
100.0% Non-Family 80.0% Female Householder, no 60.0% spouse present
40.0% Male Householder, no spouse present 20.0% Married Couple Family
0.0% Lincoln Teton Wyoming USA County County
Source: US Census Bureau and SuburbanStats.org
Lincoln County leads the selected peers in the number of family led homes at 63.20%. This is one of the Valley’s assets. Married couple families are less likely to fall under the poverty line than single parent homes. Also, married couple families are more likely to be in the area for longer than non-families which are much more mobile. The State of Wyoming follows Lincoln County with 50.92% married couple families, the United States with 48.00%, and then Teton County being the lowest at 45.70%. About nine percent of families are single parent homes in Lincoln County. In comparison to last year, this percentage has decreased. This reduction may have positive impacts as single parent homes are more probable to live below the poverty line. The percentage of Lincoln County single parent homes is significantly lower than the 17.00% for the United States.
Lincoln County also has the lowest non-family homes, or single individuals with no children, at 27.80%. However, this percentage increased compared to last year’s findings. Teton County had the most non-family homes with a total of 45%. The low single family households in Lincoln County is greatly influenced by the large number of young people who graduate from Star Valley High School (SVHS) and then pursue higher education and career aspirations outside the valley.
The United States Census Bureau estimates the number of persons living within each respective household in a given area. Lincoln County has the highest persons per household of the four areas reviewed, as seen below.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 11
Persons per household U.S. 2.63 Wyoming 2.49 Teton County 2.69 Lincoln County 2.75 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
EDUCATION The total student enrollment is another telling population metric. Between 2005 and 2016, the student population has remained fairly consistent with an average student population of 2,381. Since 2012 there has been a slight upward trend in student population, with 2016 having the highest student enrollment of 2,536 students. In 2015 there were 2,500 students, resulting in a 1.44% growth rate.
Star Valley Student Population 3000
2500
2000
1119
1082
1095
1071
1095
1113
1086
1064
1021
1077 1095 1500 1060
1000
1418
1417
1350
1329
1314
1288
1279
1276 1276
1245 1232
500 1179
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Elementary High/Middle
Source: Lincoln County School District #2
Further investigation of the student enrollment reveals where the student population lives. One way to estimate this metric is by comparing the number of elementary students attending schools in the Upper and Lower Valleys. Historically, the Upper Valley elementary schools have had higher student populations. However, in 2012, the two areas nearly met in the middle.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 12 Since then, they have remained fairly consistent with a slight majority in the Upper Valley. In 2016, 53% of elementary students attended Upper Valley schools and 47% went in the Lower Valley. The fairly constant spread between the Upper and Lower Valley elementary school enrollment over the past four years may indicate that both ends of Star Valley are realizing fairly identical household growth for households with children. This metric does not reflect where in the Valley non-family and retired family household growth is taking place.
Star Valley Student Population
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Afton/Osmond Elem Etna/Thayne Elem
Source: Lincoln County School District #2
The level of educational attainment, or human capital, is an important economic growth indicator. Lincoln County has more high school graduates compared to Wyoming and the United States. However, it has the lowest number of college graduates as depicted in the table below.
Educational attainment Lincoln County Teton Wyoming United County States
High School Graduate or Higher 93.40% 95.70% 92.30% 86.30% Bachelor's Degree or Higher 20.10% 51.90% 25.10% 29.30%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The relatively low level of individuals holding a bachelor’s degree or higher is concerning since statistics (shown below) clearly indicate that higher levels of education result in overall lower unemployment and higher salary levels. However, because of the rural nature of Star Valley, the demand for higher degree jobs is lower than in more densely populated areas. As discussed before, many SVHS graduates leave the valley to pursue education, and then move to other places for employment. The graph below, provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows the correlation between higher education, greater earnings, and lower unemployment rates for 2015. Considering the implications of the impact of education attainment on income and the
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 13 lower level of overall educational achievement among the Star Valley population, income levels are expected to be lower, an issue discussed later.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
55 YEAR AND OLDER POPULATION
Working with the Thayne Senior Center, the Bank has been able to monitor the number of meals served to senior citizens per year. Interestingly, the number of meals served decreased between 2012 and 2014, even though the statistics indicate an increasing 55 and over population. This decrease is felt to have been caused by the Thayne Senior Center exceeding the government allocation for 17,522 meals by around 5,000 meals in 2012. The funding for the center was reduced; thus, expansion efforts were also reduced. Additionally, some of the daily regulars passed away, and the center has indicated that “new” seniors appear to be more self- reliant and aren’t eating at the Center as often. In 2015, the total number of meals served was 21,994. This is nearly the same as the number of meals served in 2014 which was 21,835. Before the peak in 2012, the total number of served meals hovered around 22,000 per year beginning in 2007.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 14 Thayne Senior Center Meal Count 30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
26,650 26,650
25,836 25,836
25,173 25,173
23,199 23,199
10,000 22,960
22,526 22,526
22,162 22,162
21,994 21,994
21,835 21,835
21,663 21,663
19,037 19,037
18,083 18,083
17,524 17,524
17,500 17,500
17,004 17,004
15,330 15,330 5,000
- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Thayne Senior Center
The Bank collects annual information from the Afton Senior Center as well. From 2011 to 2014, the number of meals was steadily increasing. However, in 2015 the Afton Senior Center experienced a decline in meals served, with meals decreasing by 509, for a total of 22,306. The exact cause of the loss is hard to pin point due to all of the variables, including deaths and funding constraints. However, the Center did indicate that some of the regulars lost their Medicaid waivers, which accounts for a portion of the decrease.
Afton Senior Center Meal Count 23,500 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 22,815 20,500 22,427 22,306 20,000 20,982 19,500 20,228 19,000 18,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Afton Senior Center
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 15 DOMICILE LOCATION
When analyzing the Valley’s population growth, it is interesting to attempt to identify where the growth is happening. One way to attempt to distinguish where the growth is happening is by examining the growth of the incorporated towns under the assumption that they serve as a proxy for the area surrounding them. The table below reports the EAD population estimates of Thayne, Alpine, Star Valley Ranch, and Afton.
Source: State of Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division
Remember that these estimates are a statistical calculation, and therefore not exact. It is estimated that Afton lost 3 people while the three Lower Valley towns saw an estimated increase of 24. From these estimations, it may be concluded that the majority of Star Valley’s growth is happening in the Lower Valley and/or outside of the municipalities. For the Upper Valley, it is felt by the authors that a majority of the growth is outside of the Afton town limits. As previously indicated the Upper Valley student population is fairly consistent relative to the Lower Valley student population; therefore, either there are larger families, more family households, and/or most of the new Upper Valley population is living outside of Afton.
Due to the decreases in the coal and oil industry, the population of Kemmerer and Diamondville has become a point of interest. According to estimates by the EAD, the population of southeast Lincoln County is nearly stagnant. The Southern County population will be further challenged with the closing of the PacifiCorp Naughton Plant Unit 3 at the end of 2017. In 2014, PacifiCorp estimated the number of full-time employees at Naughton would fall from 152 to 112 if Unit 3 was converted to natural gas and left operational. It was estimated that another 100 workers employed at the nearby mine that feeds the plant could also lose their jobs (Storrow).
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 16 Southeast Lincoln County 3,000
2,500
2,000 Cokeville Diamondville 1,500 Kemmerer 1,000 La Barge Opal 500
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: State of Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division
These estimations were most likely made before the energy downturn beginning in 2014 for coal and oil. Thus, the authors feel like the population growth may be seeing negative pressure in these southern Lincoln County areas. If this is the case, and Lincoln County Population is growing in aggregate, then the population of Star Valley may actually be increasing faster than anticipated by EAD or the authors.
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
The U.S. Department of Commerce provides information on the labor market of each county in the United States. The labor force is a count of both full-time and part-time employment for wage/salary employment as well as proprietors’ employment for an area. Please note that the labor market may include jobs for which a person residing in another area fills. The graph below shows the trend for Lincoln, Teton, and Sublette counties.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 17 Total Employment (number of jobs) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Lincoln, WY Sublette, WY Teton, WY
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Teton County has the largest labor force requirement with a total of 29,327 jobs in 2014. In Lincoln County, the 2014 total labor force increased for the first time in two years reaching 9,823. Overall, the total labor force has remained fairly consistent in Lincoln County, staying close to approximately 10,000 with small increases and decreases. Sublette County was slightly lower than Lincoln County with 7,475 jobs in 2014. As previously indicated, this fairly stagnant level of employment in Lincoln County is a significant cause of the loss of the 20-45 year old demographics as these younger, energetic individuals leave the local area in pursuit of higher education, employment, and careers.
While analyzing the labor market, it is helpful to break down the labor market by industry. To give perspective, 2007, or pre-recession numbers, are compared with the most current available numbers of 2014. The largest difference is in the construction industry. In 2007, the Lincoln County construction labor force was 2,484, and then drastically dropped, sitting at less than half that number with 1,117 jobs in 2014. While construction labor force number has been decreasing since the Great Recession, it did show a slight increase between 2010 and 2011 and between 2013 and 2014. Many of the other industries in Lincoln County are nearly back to the pre-recession numbers. There has been growth in government, accommodation, health care, and education service jobs over the last few years.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 18
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Paychecks are often a bottom-line factor, as far as the employees are concerned. Earnings are also an important economic indicator because earnings are the building blocks for consumer consumption. In the U.S., consumer spending is estimated to contribute approximately 71% of GDP.
The earnings graph below illustrates the same trend as the labor force graphs with a large peak in 2007, $465,430,000, and the Great Recession following. The last few years have shown an upward trend in earnings, ending 2014 with $413,520,000. While the number of jobs has stayed fairly consistent at about 10,000 jobs, the wages have increased at a faster pace.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 19 Lincoln County Earnings (In Thousands) 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000 465,430
434,573 434,573
427,852 427,852
413,520 413,520
405,118 405,118
391,778 391,778
387,617 387,617
385,765 385,765
150,000
360,960 360,960
310,087 310,087
307,323 307,323
300,409 300,409
100,000
255,137 255,137
237,162 237,162 50,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
EARNINGS BY INDUSTRY
To further explore the earnings in Lincoln County, the chart below shows earnings by industry. Once again the most current data from 2014 is compared to the pre-recession numbers of 2007. Consistent with the loss in labor force, the largest earnings difference is in the construction industry. Although construction earnings experience a large decline after the recession, it still remains one of the largest industries in Lincoln County. Many industries have actually grown since 2007. There has been positive earnings growth in most industries except the large decline in construction as well as modest declines in transportation, manufacturing, and forestry.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 20 Lincoln County Earnings by Industry Government and government enterprises Other services, except public … Accommodation and food services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Health care and social assistance Educational services Administrative and waste management … Management of companies and … Professional, scientific, and technical … Real estate and rental and leasing Finance and insurance Information Transportation and warehousing Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining Forestry, fishing, and related activities Farm earnings - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
2007 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
However according to Wyoming’s economic summary, the earnings for most industries in 2016 have decreased in comparison to 2015 year with mining and farming decreasing the most (Economic Summary: 1Q2016). These numbers have not yet been spread out to the county level yet. Therefore, it is likely earnings in Lincoln County may be also decreasing, but such is not yet known.
PERSONAL COMPENSATION BY INDUSTRY
Personal compenstaion by industry is calculated by dividing the total compensation per industry by the number of employees in that respective industry. The purpose of this statistic is to get an estimate of an average wage earned per industry. Because the calculation of this number is not highly detailed, these results should only be used in examining overall trends.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 21
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Again construction has experienced a very large decline over the period in review, while government related jobs experienced the largest increase. It is felt by the authors that these two segments may be reversing course as construction projects are currently high in the area in 2016, while the State of Wyoming is working on reducing its current expenditures by approximately $248 million.
PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita income is calculated by dividing total area income by total population. This key economic indicator illustrates aggregate income on a per-individual basis in a given area. Per capita income is often used as an indication of overall economic health and measure of quality of life.
The chart below compares the 2014 per capita income of Lincoln, Teton, Sublette Counties, the State of Wyoming, and the United States. Teton County’s per capita income is considerably larger than the surrounding areas. Aside from the Teton County outlier, the other areas report per capita income between $40,000 and $55,000. Lincoln County is the lowest at $40,217.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 22 2014 Per Capita Income
194,485
51,579 54,584 40,217 46,049
Lincoln Sublette Teton Wyoming United States
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Historically, concerning per capita income, Lincoln County has been lagging behind the neighboring counties, the State of Wyoming, and the United States as indicated in the following graph. Therefore, on average, Lincoln County residents have less spending power on an individual resident basis than the people in neighboring counties.
Historical Per Capita Income 140,000
120,000
100,000 Lincoln 80,000 Sublette Teton 60,000 Wyoming 40,000 United States
20,000
- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 23 As discussed earlier, for the peer group reviewed, Lincoln County has the most married couple family led homes, the greatest number of persons per household, a growing senior population, and lower levels of education. These factors directly contribute to the lower Lincoln County per capita income statistic.
However, an issue with per capital income is that it can be skewed by a few very wealthy individuals – and may not correctly represent the average population. Fortune magazine recently posted an article titled “This Playground for the Rich Is the Most Economically Unequal City in America”. The article reported that Teton County, Wyoming is the most economically unequal metro area in the United States according to the Economic Policy Institute. The top 1% earns 68.3% of the income and the bottom 90% earns 17.3% of the income (Matthews). Therefore, on an individual basis per capita income may be misleading as to the general well being of most Teton County, Wyoming, citizens.
To help even out the above mentioned factors, a different economic indicator is real median household income. The graph below compares Lincoln, Sublette, and Teton Counties, the State of Wyoming, and the United States. Lincoln County is consistently higher than Wyoming and the United States with respect to real median household income. Surprisingly, Lincoln County’s real median household income did not decrease dramatically during the Great Recession indicating construction workers were able to re-employ in other industries, which it is believed by the authors to have been largely oil related.
Real Median Household Income Comparison 90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000 Wyoming 50,000 USA 40,000 Teton 30,000 Lincoln 20,000 Sublette
10,000
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 24 POVERTY LEVEL
Income and the quality-of-life factors may be represented by the number of people living beneath the poverty level. The fewer the number of individuals below the poverty level the better the general overall population is. The following chart compares Lincoln County, Teton County, Wyoming, and the United States poverty levels according to the US Census Bureau’s estimates for 2014 and 2013. Persons in poverty, percent Lincoln Teton Wyoming United States 2014 9.00% 7.70% 11.20% 14.80% 2013 6.90% 8.20% 11.50% 15.40% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Lincoln County has a lower percentage of persons below poverty level than Wyoming and the United States which is somewhat surprising given its lower per capita income. This clearly indicates a more even distribution of income over the entire population of Lincoln County. However, between the 2013 and 2014 estimates, Teton County poverty percentage decreased by 0.50% and Lincoln County’s increased by 2.10%. This negative downturn in Lincoln County is troublesome. The downturn could potentially be related to the recent loss of jobs within the energy sector in which many Lincoln County residents held jobs.
Poverty levels can also be estimated by the number of people participating is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The number of SNAP recipients in Lincoln County peaked in 2011 after the Great Recession at 927 recipients (7.41% of total population). Since then, the number of SNAP recipients has been steadily decreasing. In 2013, the total number of recipients was 757 (5.95% of total population). The graph below depicts the trend of SNAP benefits recipients from 2004 to 2013.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 25 Lincoln County SNAP Benefits 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 Lincoln County 400 300 200 100 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
AVERAGE WAGE PER JOB
The average wage per job represents the actual wage income that would be reported on a W2, or consideration received from an employer to an employee. It does not include other non- wage income sources such as dividend income, business income, or interest income. Average wage per job for Lincoln County, Teton County, Sublette County, Wyoming, and the United States are compared in the graph below.
2014 Average Wage Per Job 70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
61,332 61,332
51,552 51,552
20,000 47,361
44,473 44,473
43,751 43,751
10,000
- United States Wyoming Lincoln Sublette Teton
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 26 Lincoln County average wage is $3,610, or 8% lower than Wyoming and $7,801, or 15% lower than the United States. It is, however, nearly equal to Teton County.
Historically, Lincoln County has had one of the lowest average wages per job. Lincoln County has maintained a fairly consistent level of average wages over the last few years, usually being fairly close to Teton County. The graph below compares the historical average wage per job for Lincoln County, Teton County, Sublette County, Wyoming, and the United States. Again, Lincoln and Teton average wage per job is nearly identical, with both counties being below national and state averages.
Historical Average Wage Per Job 70,000
60,000
50,000 United States 40,000 Wyoming Lincoln 30,000 Sublette 20,000 Teton
10,000
- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
UNEMPLOYMENT
A significant economic marker is the number of unemployed individuals in an area. People who are unemployed, but are looking for a job, are included in the unemployment numbers. The unemployment statistics for Lincoln County, Wyoming, and the United States are compared in the following graph.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 27 Comparison of Unemployment Rates June 2011 - June 2016 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%
0.0%
13 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 16
11 12 13 14 15
11 12 13 14 15
------
- - - - -
- - - - -
Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
National Wyoming Lincoln County
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Economic Data
This graph is not seasonally adjusted for Lincoln County unemployment. This is evidenced by cyclical increases and decreases in the Lincoln County unemployment line. Clearly, in Lincoln County many people become employed in the summer construction and tourist related months and then become unemployed in the winter. This cyclical unemployment tread does impact per capital income and total wages, and unemployment benefits are not counted as part of total wages. Further, unemployment compensation is at the lower end of the income scale.
The Lincoln County and United States unemployment rates have been trending downward for the last few years, which is a very positive economic indicator. The EAD’s Summary for the first quarter of 2016 reported that employment declined 3.00% in comparison to the same time period last year and is the lowest employment numbers since 2009 (Economic Summary: 1Q2016).
In order to get a more complete perspective of employment, however, one must also consider the civilian labor force participation rate. The unemployment rate only considers those individuals that are actively seeking for a job. The civilian labor force participation rate is defined as “All persons classified as employed or unemployed … as a percent of the civilian non- institutional population” (Glossary).
The graph below shows Lincoln County in comparison to the United States.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 28 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0 USA Lincoln County 60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
1955 1994 1952 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1949 Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Lincoln County labor force participation trends closely follow that of the United States. The downward trend is thought to be caused primarily by two causes including: the generation of baby boomers which is a growing population segment in Star Valley and is transitioning from employment into retirement, and two, the job market has still not fully recovered from the Great Recession and energy downturn – meaning that some individuals have given up seeking employment altogether. The steady downward trend is troublesome because it could indicate that the total population is becoming less productive over time as a lower percentage of the population participates in the labor force.
The civilian labor force participation rate for individuals between 25-54 years of age is another interesting graph to look at. The graph, shown below, starts at 64.8% in 1948 and gradually rises until 84.1% the late 1990s. The steady increase can be attributed to more women joining the work force. However, since then, it has gradually been receding, and it is 80.9% for the most recent data point in 2013. This is concerning because fewer people in the work force means fewer people making a paycheck. This trend, if it continues, will decrease overall GDP, consumer spending, and economic activity.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 29
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
AREA EMPLOYERS
Every year, the bank surveys several of the major employers in Star Valley. The bank asks each of them for the number of employees that work at that business and that live in the Star Valley area. By keeping track of the number of employees, the bank is able to estimate general overall employment trends. The findings of the 2016 survey are shown below: Employment by Area Major Employers 2016 Employer 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gain/Loss YTD 1ST Bank (Afton & Alpine) 12 13 13 11 11 14 13 11 22 11 Aviat Aircraft 70 49 50 48 36 50 48 47 49 40 -9 Bank of Star Valley (All Branches) 28 28 27 26 24 24 24 25 26 1 Freedom Arms 13 14 13 14 12 12 14 15 14 15 1 J.R. Simplot 200 220 220 240 250 270 270 270 270 230 -40 Lincoln County Government 153 162 163 162 162 151 66 60 60 60 0 Lincoln County School #2 464 470 470 470 489 492 488 490 490 490 0 Lower Valley Energy 48 46 43 44 42 47 45 48 48 49 1 Maverik Corporation 52 50 50 46 52 54 9 0 0 0 0 Silverstar Communications 66 67 88 87 88 67 87 80 80 80 0 Star Valley Medical Center 185 230 220 218 239 263 275 284 284 309 25 Polyguard & RMP Mobile 15 16 16 16 15 15 9 14 13 12 -1 Wells Fargo (Afton & Thayne) 9 9 13 9 7 11 10 11 11 0 PC Industries 25 31 25 30 30 30 33 35 2 No Longer Existing Employers 25 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jackson Workers 1069 1173 868 926 970 990 823 823 1075 1089 14 Total 1291 1377 1412 1431 1456 1493 1390 1385 2463 2468 5 *Maverick est 2008 & 2009; Local banks were added during 2008 Economic Analysis. There was no car count study conducted in 2011 or 2012; therefore, the Jackson Workers number was taken from LC Outflow Data. Also in 2012 Silverstar Communications did report lying off 6 employees, had 7 retire, and had the balance leave voluntarily. **no new data in 2014 for Jackson Commuters, 2013 number carried over
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 30 First Bank’s employment numbers show a false increase in employment because 2016 includes both the Afton and Alpine branch while the previous data only included Afton. The Simplot number is also a little skewed. 2016 includes only Star Valley Simplot employees whereas the past years included all employees. However, the mine did report a small downsizing this year. In addition, the school district numbers were adjusted to exclude Cokeville.
The Medical Center experienced the most growth. Their employment numbers have been rising for the last few years. This increase follows the expectation with the growing retirement community as indicated before. The number of Jackson commuters has also increased this year. The “Jackson Workers” number is derived from a car count performed by the bank around the week of July 5th each year and presents the average of Wyoming and Idaho licensed autos, Start Bus riders, and limited commercial traffic for the time period between 5:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday of the subject week. It does not represent a total count of commuters to Jackson, but rather does provide a trend line. Overtime, the statistic does indicate which way commuter traffic, and therefore for Star Valley residents working in the Jackson market, is trending. The 2016 study indicated a new peak for commuter traffic, which does tie logically with the current strong Teton County economy.
Many people drive to work not only in Jackson, but to the Simplot mine, or drive within the Valley to get to their jobs because of the rural nature of the area. The US Census Bureau calculates mean travel time. Looking at 2014’s data confirms the hypothesis that Star Valley employees have a longer than average commute. In fact, Lincoln County employees, in the aggregate, spend more time commuting to work than any other of the reviewed segments.
Lincoln Teton United County County Wyoming States Mean Travel Time (minutes) 27.9 14.7 18.3 25.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
EMPLOYMENT ADVERTISING
Since 2008, the bank has kept track of the number of help wanted ads listed in the Star Valley Independent. The number of help wanted ads is a valuable economic indicator as it provides a limited representation of the number of unfilled jobs that are available in the community and whether demand for labor is trending upward or downward. Generally, the review is conducted the first full week in June. However, this year, the ads from May 25, 2016 and June 15, 2016 were averaged due to an anomaly on June 8, 2016 in the number of ads. The graph below shows the results for the last eight years.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 31 Help Wanted Ads: Star Valley Independent 50
40 Other Out of Area Jobs 30 Jackson Jobs
20 In Valley Jobs
10
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Star Valley Independent Classifieds 2008-2016
As one would expect, the high point on the graph is in 2008, with a total of 45 jobs offered. The next few years reflect the Great Recession with only five jobs posted in 2011. On the bright side, since 2014 there has been a significant increase in the help wanted advertisements. This year, averaging two weeks of data, there were 43 total jobs being offered in the newspaper. 2016 advertisements were only two jobs short of the pre-recession peak. This is a very encouraging sign. As mentioned before, there are many Jackson commuters in the valley. There were nine jobs posted for Jackson - or 20% of the jobs posted in the 2016 sample.
MARKET LIQUIDITY
Liquidity, or deposits made in local financial institutions, is one gauge of general market growth and wealth. This is not a perfect measure of liquidity due to outside deposits made into local banks, or local money deposited into outside financial institutions, or investments made through brokerage houses. Thus, the measure should be used to understand general trends in market growth assuming fairly consistent consumer and business investment preferences. The graph below shows the total deposits for Star Valley since 1994. The local commercial banks report these numbers to the FDIC as of June 30 each year and the FDIC makes the information public in November of each year.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 32 Star Valley Total Bank Deposits (000)
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
Total Deposits
$252,168 $252,168
$100,000
$231,531 $231,531
$227,062 $227,062
$210,614 $210,614
$207,555 $207,555
$204,587 $204,587
$204,400 $204,400
$198,073 $198,073
$197,385 $197,385
$185,570 $185,570
$154,423 $154,423
$139,406 $139,406
$50,000 $135,396
$121,974 $121,974
$111,420 $111,420
$99,437 $99,437
$88,596 $88,596
$81,698 $81,698
$72,993 $72,993
$63,039 $63,039
$56,000 $56,000
$52,863 $52,863
$-
2000 2003 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits
The chart shows a steady increase in deposits until the Great Recession of 2008 after which deposits fell slightly. Then the total deposits rebounded fairly quickly and surpass pre-recession numbers by 2011. Between 2014 and 2015, there was an 8.91% growth in bank deposits, the highest percent growth since 2006 indicating a growing economy.
To further investigate local deposits, the graph below shows the local deposits by location of Upper or Lower Valley.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 33 Deposits by Valley Branch Location (000) $160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$-
2012 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015
Upper Valley Branch Deposits Lower Valley Branch Deposits
Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits
Historically, the Upper Valley has generated more deposits than the Lower Valley. In more recent years, the Lower Valley has slowly started to close the gap. In 2011 the gap between the Upper and Lower Valley aggregate deposits was $73,450, and in 2015 it was $49,620. This adds to previous evidence that the Lower Valley continues to experience more growth than the Upper Valley.
The following graph shows the market share percentage of each bank based on deposits.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 34 Market Share by Bank
5.8% 20.3% 48.9% Bank of Star Valley Wells Fargo 25.1% First Bank Bank of Jackson Hole
Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits
COST OF LIVING
A state-wide cost of living report is prepared by EAD. The report is based on the cost of food, housing, apparel, transportation, and recreational activities. The index value of 100 is considered the state average. In this report EAD breaks Lincoln County into Lincoln County- Afton and Lincoln County-Kemmerer. The chart below compares both of the Lincoln County areas, Teton County, Sublette County, and Uinta County.
Wyoming Comparative Cost of Living Index- 4th Qtr 2015 (Statewide Average=100) County All Items Food Housing Apparel Trans. Medical Rec. Lincoln-Afton 95 99 87 99 104 92 112 Lincoln-Kemmerer 92 92 87 86 106 80 106 Teton 144 116 178 134 107 102 110 Sublette 107 114 104 117 105 101 111 Uinta 93 92 88 98 101 111 95 Source: Department of Administration & Information Economic Analysis Division
This chart shows that Lincoln County is currently one of the cheaper places to live when compared to the surrounding areas. For employees with jobs in Teton County, Wyoming, Star Valley clearly remains a very cost effective alternative to living in Teton County. This economic difference remains a strong catalyst to lower Star Valley growth.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 35 The chart below gives a historical perspective on the cost of living in Lincoln County-Afton. Before 2012, Lincoln County-Afton was at or above the state average for the cost of living. Since 2012, it has been beneath the average. Although it is still below the average, the cost of living did increase from 92 to 95 in the fourth quarter of 2015 with the largest increases being in food, transportation, and recreation sectors.
Change in Lincoln-Afton Cost of Living Index Between Jul. 2006 and Dec 2015
Lincoln- All Items Food Housing Apparel Trans. Medical Rec. Afton 4Q 5 102 95 107 89 99 94 106 4Q 6 104 98 110 88 101 104 100 4Q 7 100 97 104 86 99 100 96 4Q 8 101 96 104 95 100 91 110 4Q 9 101 96 102 96 100 91 110 4Q 10 102 103 101 104 100 98 112 4Q 11 100 96 100 98 99 96 112 4Q 12 94 98 85 102 100 96 112 4Q 13 95 97 88 107 102 96 107 4Q 14 92 94 86 96 99 93 107 4Q 15 95 99 87 99 104 92 112 Source: Department of Administration & Information Economic Analysis Division
To supplement the state’s estimates for the cost of living, the bank performs a study on the cost of a basket of groceries. An identical basket of goods (subject to branding among the stores) is compared among the three Star Valley grocery stores as well as grocery stores in Jackson, Pinedale, Kemmerer, and Winco in Idaho Falls. The results of the study are shown below.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 36 Grocery Comparison
$121.51 $117.28 $109.52 $114.56
$88.48 Kemmerer Jackson Pinedale SV Avg IF - Winco
Kemmerer Jackson Pinedale SV Avg IF - Winco
As one would expect, Idaho Falls- Winco is the most economical option. The other stores are within $10 of each other, with Star Valley in the middle of the sample. These findings are in conflict with the EAD cost-of-living analysis as Jackson is less expensive for the specific BOSV basket of goods. However, the conflict may be explained by the cost of restaurants and/or higher end grocery items, which are not in the Bank sample.
A detailed list of the grocery cart and prices is listed below.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 37
The Bank has used this same basket of goods for the economic study since 2008. The following graph shows the pricing trend for this list of items.
Average SV Grocery Cart 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 Average SV 60.00 40.00 20.00 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016
Interestingly, the price of the groceries does not peak until 2011; three years after the Great Recession hit the rest of the country. Since then, the price has almost been stagnant.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 38 INFLATION
The EAD is likely the best source of inflation data within Wyoming. The inflation rate is estimated by using the percent change over one year in the price level for a standard basket of goods. They estimate inflation for the entire state and five regions in Wyoming. The Northwest region includes Big Horn, Hot Springs, Park, Teton, and Washakie counties. The Southwest region includes Lincoln-Kemmerer, Lincoln-Afton, Sublette, Sweetwater, and Uinta counties.
Star Valley is in the Southwest region. However, due to the recreation and tourist activity and close economic ties to Teton County, the authors feel that an average of the Northwest and Southwest regions is the appropriate measure for inflation in Star Valley.
Inflation in 2014 was estimated to be -0.1% and in 2015 it is estimated to be 1.9%. This is a very large increase in a short period which is a reflection of potentially increased economic activity. Annual Inflation Rates by Region U.S. Statewide SV Quarter Northwest Southwest CPI* All Items Estimate 4Q01 1.6 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2Q02 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.4 1.8 4Q02 2.4 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2Q03 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.3 4Q03 1.9 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.1 2Q04 3.3 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.5 4Q04 3.3 4.3 3.3 4.8 4.1 2Q05 2.5 4.5 3.5 6.6 5.1 4Q05 3.4 5.0 3.4 8.3 5.9 2Q06 4.3 5.6 4.0 7.6 5.8 4Q06 2.5 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.3 2Q07 2.7 4.7 4.6 6.2 5.4 4Q07 4.1 6.1 5.9 8.1 7.0 2Q08 5.0 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 4Q08 0.1 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.4 2Q09 -1.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 4Q09 2.7 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 2Q10 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.9 4Q10 1.5 2.9 3.8 2.1 3.0 2Q11 3.6 4.5 4.5 3.6 4.1 4Q11 3.0 3.9 4.2 3.3 3.8 2Q12 1.7 2.4 3.8 2.8 3.3 4Q12 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.9 2Q13 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.8 2.6 4Q13 1.5 2.9 3.0 1.9 2.5 4Q14 0.8 1.1 0.8 -0.9 -0.1 4Q15 0.7 0.5 2.7 1.1 1.9 Source: Department of Administration & Information Economic Analysis Division
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 39 The above data is shown in graph form below. The graph clearly illustrates that overall inflation has trended downward from the 2008 peak, but it is beginning to show upward pressure. An inflation rate of 2% is a stated objective of the Federal Reserve it executing its monetary policy. SV Inflation Rate Estimate 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
0.0
-1.0
4Q07 4Q09 4Q11 4Q13 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q14 4Q15
SV Estimate
Source: Department of Administration & Information Economic Analysis Division
The Star Valley inflation rate, relative to the U.S. CPI is shown below:
SV and US Inflation 10.0
8.0
6.0 U.S. CPI* 4.0 SV Estimate 2.0
0.0
4Q11 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q12 4Q13 4Q15 -2.0 4Q01
Source: of Administration & Information Economic Analysis Division
Overall, Star Valley inflation has been higher than the national average. In 2013, the two inflation rates were equal, and in 2014 Star Valley’s was actually lower. However, the Star Valley inflation rate has again returned to a position of being higher than that of the United
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 40 States as a whole. The Star Valley inflation rate potentially represents a challenge for residents due to the low per capital income level, high family unit size, and moderate income levels.
STATE AND LOCAL TAX
Wyoming was ranked number nine in a national comparison of state tax revenue per capita with a total of $3,876. This is the sum of the taxes paid to state and local governments, divided by the population. While this comparison has not been updated since 2014, the comparison is still informative. The rankings are shown below.
2014 State Tax Revenue Per Capita % of Personal State Rank State Tax Income District of Columbia $ 9,679 1 13.1% North Dakota $ 8,282 2 15.9% Vermont $ 4,725 3 10.4% Alaska $ 4,604 4 9.2% Connecticut $ 4,431 5 7.3% Hawaii $ 4,249 6 9.5% Minnesota $ 4,238 7 9.0% New York $ 3,898 8 7.2% Wyoming $ 3,876 9 7.4% Massachusetts $ 3,741 10 6.6% Source: Federation of Tax Administrators
State and local tax obligations have a direct impact on disposable income. A person earning a relatively lower wage in a low tax area may be as well off as a person earning a higher wage in a high tax area. While Wyoming shows a high per capita tax obligation, a large share of the actual taxes is paid by the mineral extraction industries through severance tax. In fact, Wyoming residents currently enjoy a low relative tax burden which does have a direct impact on the financial health of each resident. An attempt is made by the authors to quantify the impact of Wyoming’s low resident tax rates, relative to neighboring states.
The Bank created a relative tax comparison for a hypothetical family to illustrate the impact of Wyoming’s lower residential tax rates. The comparative tax analysis is based upon a hypothetical family of four, earning $80,000 (double wage earners living in Lincoln County), living in a $200,000 house, and driving 15,000 miles a year.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 41
Computed taxes for 2015 - Family of 4, $80M Gross Income, $200M House, 15,000 miles per year % of $80M Income 59.5M 625 Gallons Property Comparative Wyoming State Tax Consumption Gasoline Tax Tax $200M Sales Tax Tax/Gal. Res. Idaho $ 5,419 $ 3,570 $ 200 $ 1,380 $ 10,569 287% Colorado $ 3,704 $ 1,726 $ 138 $ 1,200 $ 6,767 184% Montana $ 4,976 $ - $ 169 $ 1,660 $ 6,805 185% Nebraska $ 3,781 $ 3,273 $ 168 $ 3,520 $ 10,741 292% South Dakota $ - $ 2,380 $ 175 $ 2,560 $ 5,115 139% Utah $ 4,000 $ 3,540 $ 153 $ 1,200 $ 8,893 241% Wyoming $ - $ 2,380 $ 144 $ 1,160 $ 3,684 100% Source: api.org, tax-rates.org, taxfoundation.org
State Comparative Taxes
$12,000.00 $10,000.00 Sales Tax
$8,000.00 Gas Tax $6,000.00 $4,000.00 Property Tax Income Tax Amount Paid Amount $2,000.00 $-
State
Source: Source: api.org, tax-rates.org, taxfoundation.org
The analysis shows that Wyoming is one of the best states to live in as far as individual taxes are concerned. The state with the next lowest tax burden in the sample is South Dakota, but the tax burden for this scenario is still $1,431.25 more in South Dakota than Wyoming. Wyoming was also rated one of the best tax states by Forbes and Kiplinger (Block) (Carlyle).
Wyoming natives have more disposable income because less of their money goes to taxes. Because of the low tax burden, retired and high net-worth individuals are drawn to Wyoming to reduce their state tax expenditures (Block).
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 42 It must be noted that the sales tax collection for Wyoming decreased by 24.5% in comparison to last year, mostly due to the losses of activity in the mining and energy industries. (Economic Summary: 1Q2016). With the downturn in the mineral extraction industries there may be increase pressure over time to raise personal tax obligations in Wyoming to fund Wyoming’s state and local government spending. Such changes will directly impact the Wyoming personal tax advantage indicated above.
MISERY INDEX
The bank created a misery index in order to attempt to gauge the overall “economic attitude” of the Star Valley citizens. The expectation is that with lower unemployment levels and inflation rates, the population would have a more positive outlook and vise-versa with higher unemployment and inflation rates, the population would tend to have a more negative outlook. Thus, the misery index is simply the sum of two components being the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.
Misery Index 4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
SV Index
0.0
WY Index
1998 2009 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
This graph indicates that the average person in Star Valley should tend to have a positive outlook on life. Further, the Star Valley misery index is surpassing 2008 levels indicating a potentially strong consumer expectation for economic well being. The authors are concerned
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 43 that there may be excessive economic euphoria and expectation building that may lead to an excessive risk appetite for many residents.
WYOMING ECONOMY
The Wyoming mining sector activity dropped by 55.1% from first quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016, the largest decrease ever recorded (Economic Summary: 1Q2016). This reduction played out in the coal, gas, and natural gas sectors, which are discussed in more detail below.
COAL IMPACTS
The graph below shows the estimated coal power plant closures on a U.S. national basis to-date and then closures which are projected to take place by 2026. The loss in coal demand is overwhelming, and the large loss of coal based power generation will directly harm the current Wyoming economy. As the demand for coal decreases, jobs will be eliminated, service related sectors hurt, and the related severance taxes will be reduced.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 44
Source: TEA Solutions
The following graph shows natural gas energy production overtaking coal energy production for the first time in history in early 2016. With natural gas assuming more of the electrical generation load, it will be hard for coal to recover even if current environmental laws and regulations, which do not support coal, were to be reduced or changed.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 45
Source: TEA Solutions
In the mid to long-term, clearly the Wyoming economy will become somewhat less coal dependent. However, the State will continue to see severance tax revenue from natural gas, oil, and other mineral extraction industries all of which are market price dependent. This will have a direct impact on Wyoming State tax revenue, which directly impacts county, town, and other government related sectors.
CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATING GROUP (CREG) SUMMARY
The CREG is the official estimating body for all revenues received by Wyoming State government. The 2016 forecast by CREG was modified in January 2016 to incorporate the current falling energy price environment. At the beginning of the year, the General Fund revenues forecast was altered to reflect a $5.1 million decrease and the Budget Reserve
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 46 Account forecast was reduced by $26.9 million. CREG noted that “Natural gas prices are at historical lows with the supply and demand imbalance” (Wyoming State Government Revenue Forecast Fiscal Year 2016 – Fiscal Year 2020).
According to CREG, as of April 2016, the actual total revenue received in the General Fund is 0.9% lower than expected in the adjusted January forecast, and the Budget Reserve Account is 3.9% behind the forecast (Revenue Update April 2016). The January forecast estimated a total General Fund Revenue of $1,013,600 (Wyoming State Government Revenue Forecast Fiscal Year 2016 – Fiscal Year 2020).The only categories which are exceeding the expectations from the forecast are in investment income and consist of interest and dividends. Sales and use tax collections are declining in every county except four counties in a year over year comparison. Converse County sales and use tax collections declined by over 55% in a year over year comparison.
Severance taxes are also lagging the forecast. The coal and oil prices have weakened in the second half of the fiscal year, along with the levels of coal production. The total federal mineral royalties is 2.5% lower than the forecast. The decrease in the expected natural gas price is a greater price drop than the decrease in the oil price forecast.
Unfortunately, the revenue losses are not expected to recover this year. In fact, the loss in expected revenue will most likely grow (Revenue Update April 2016). In light of this reduction in revenue, Wyoming Governor Matt Mead proposed in late June 2016 cutting $248 million from the state budget, beginning July 1, which will result in 677 layoffs of private sector employees who work for companies that do business with the state. The planned cuts represent approximately 8.0% of the Wyoming State two-year budget. Mead indicated that the cuts “come in response to declining revenues from oil, gas and coal, which provide 70 percent of the money in state coffers” (Hancock). In recent months, state economists have revised revenue projections downward by $600 million, while coal production has fallen to 1995 levels (Hancock).
The matrix below shows the July 25, 2016 Wyoming CREG Fiscal Year 2016 Revenue Update Summary, with actual collection numbers and variances to June 2016. The Wyoming General Fund is lagging $47.5 million, the Budget Reserve is lagging $66.5 million, and school foundation is lagging $14.7 million.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 47
Source: CREG
In the July 25, 2016 Revenue update, Alex Kean and Don Richards stated in their conclusion that “The April 22, 2016 revenue update included the caution that revenue collections were continuing to deteriorate and identified $110 million to $130 million as the range in which actual revenue will miss the January CREG forecast for the GF/BRA, after accounting for reversions received to date. Through June 30, collections are on pace to hit the high end of this range, or more likely exceed the largest shortfall range. Given the weakness in surface coal production it is probable the miss will be greater than $130 million and could rise as high as $150 million, prior to additional reversions of unexpended approbations” (Revenue Update July 2016).
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 48 The current reduction in state income will directly impact state services and funding to local governments which will unfold in the coming years as the counties and towns have to reduce their budgets.
REAL ESTATE
The assessed valuation of the North Lincoln County Hospital District covers all of Star Valley, Wyoming, not including Star Valley, Idaho, and can be used to evaluate changes in real estate value. Assessed valuation is a lagging indicator because the valuation is performed by the Lincoln County Assessor’s office based upon prior year sales information for non agricultural property. The 2016 assessed valuation for the hospital district is $174,494,623. This is an 8.66% increase from 2015. The assessment has been increasing since 2013. As would be suspected, the peak was in 2008 at $196,006,333. The bottom of the trough was in 2013 at $142,601,800. The assessed valuation has not fully rebounded from the 2007 peak. The positive trend for the last three years is a clear indication that property values are increasing in aggregate.
North Lincoln Hospital Valuation $250,000,000
$200,000,000
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$50,000,000
$113,290,312 $147,216,828 $196,347,317 $196,006,333 $180,602,077 $166,268,009 $143,182,112 $142,601,800 $149,625,476 $160,588,977 $174,494,623
$84,843,258 $96,038,384 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Lincoln County Assessor
PROPERTY TAXES FOR SELECT PROPERTIES
For over a decade, the bank has tracked the property tax assessments for ten different properties. The purpose of this study is to illustrate trends in real estate prices; although, in a lagging fashion. The graph below shows the trend in property tax assessments for the subject population from 2004 to 2016 with assessed valuation and resulting property tax payments again trending upward. While this is a trailing indicator, the trend clearly indicates that real estate prices are again increasing.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 49 Specific Property Taxes for Select Properties $1,400.00 $1,200.00 $1,000.00 $800.00 $600.00 $400.00 $200.00 $0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
The construction of new homes is one way to evaluate the health of the real estate market. Counties and towns require building permits for all new construction projects. The Lincoln County Planning and Zoning and the four incorporated towns in Star Valley are kind enough to supply the bank with the new permit data to keep track of new home permits. Please be aware that the Idaho parts of Star Valley are not included in this analysis. There were 104 permits in 2015 and 42 issued thus as of June 2016.
Source: Lincoln County Planning & Zoning, Town of Afton, Town of Alpine, Town of Star Valley Ranch, Town of Thayne
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 50 The graph of new home permits by area, shown below, clearly illustrates an upward trend in new home construction since 2011. New Home Permits in Star Valley
250
200
150 New Homes SV Ranch New Homes Alpine
100 New Homes Afton New Homes Thayne New Homes Non-Incorporated 50
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to date
Source: Lincoln County Planning & Zoning, Town of Afton, Town of Alpine, Town of Star Valley Ranch, Town of Thayne
UTILITY CONNECTIONS
In addition to building permits, new utility service connections are another indicator of real estate activity. The local energy co-operative, Lower Valley Energy, serves Star Valley, Teton County, Swan Valley, and Bondurant. Because they serve a larger area than this economic analysis covers, the numbers do not directly correlate with the new home permits. However, the data is valuable in identifying regional market activity. 2015 exhibited very strong connection activity. 2016 also looks to be a strong year. From January to May of 2015 there were 106 new connections which 2016 has already surpassed.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 51 Total New Services Connected
700
600
655
500
549
508 503
400
449
300 406
352
289
200 277
267
249
100
168 153 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to May
Source: Lower Valley Energy
REAL ESTATE TRANSACTION SUMMARY
At the transaction level, buyers and sellers determine the fair market value of assets as they go through the negotiation process and money changes hands. These sale transactions create the most telling real estate market indicators.
As has been indicated previously, the Star Valley economy is heavily influenced by Jackson. Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates (JHRA) stated in their 2015 Jackson market report that the overall market is growing. During 2015, “The number of transactions increased approximately 5%, and total dollar volume increased approximately 14% [in the single family segment]. … Additionally, there was only one single family home on the market listed for under $500,000” (Jackson Hole Market Report 2015).
The midyear Star Valley based report by JHRA stated that, “In the first half of 2016, average and median sales prices increased as inventory continued to decrease” (Star Valley Real Estate Market Report Mid-Year 2016). The JHRA report indicates a 13% average sale price and 9% average median sale price in 2016 over 2015 (Star Valley Real Estate Market Report Mid-Year 2016). The excellent work of JHRA highlighted a number of specific real estate sectors, of which two are of great interest. These are:
Single Family Residential: JHRA notes that “As of mid-year, single family transactions were down 17% compared to mid-year 2015. There were 82 transactions in the first half of 2016 and 99 in the first half of 2015. Total dollar volume was slightly up 2%. However the
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 52 average sales prices increased by 23% and median sales prices by 13%” (Star Valley Real Estate Market Report Mid-Year 2016).
Vacant Land: JHRA notes that “Building sites experienced an 18% increase in number of transactions. This contributed to a 51% increase in total dollar volume, from $4,002,173 in the first half of 2015 to $6,059,945 in the first half of 2016. “The report indicates that there were 71 transactions, with a average sales price of $85,531 in the first half of 2016, upon 27%. The median sale price for the first half of 2016 for vacant lands was $45,000” (Star Valley Real Estate Market Report Mid-Year 2016).
In Star Valley, many of the sales transactions are documented through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Even though, more private party sales are occurring that are not reported in MLS, the MLS numbers adequately represent the real estate activity in Star Valley to evaluate trends.
RESIDENTIAL HOME TRANSACTIONS
Single-family home sales are the main driver in the real estate market. Buying a home is likely the biggest purchase many families will undertake during their life and often represents the most significant portion of a person’s wealth. Thus, the consumer spending trends mirror the housing market trends.
The graph below shows the total number of sales and the total value of the residential home sales in Star Valley since 2002. There is a steady increase in both the number of sales and the dollar volume the first five years of the graph. As one would expect, a sharp decline indicates the Great Recession. In recent years, the trend has been increasing once again, becoming comparable to pre-recession numbers. In fact, the number of houses sold increased by 22% and the dollar volume increased by 19% in 2015 compared to the previous year. Although, in the first half of 2016, there were 82 residential home sales. From January to June of 2015 there were 103. This is a 20% decrease.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 53 Residential Home Sales $80,000,000 300
$70,000,000 250 $60,000,000 200 $50,000,000
$40,000,000 150
$30,000,000 100 $20,000,000 50 $10,000,000
$- 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to July 1
Sold $ Volume # Sold
Source: Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates
The average home price level for the residential market is calculated by dividing the total sales volume by the total number of sales. This figure is valuable because it shows supply and demand trends. The general trend is when demand increases and supply decreases, the average price increases and vice versa. Star Valley’s average price per sale is illustrated below. Readers should use caution when analyzing the graph because the average can easily be altered with a few large sales. Although there have been fewer home sales to date than 2015, the average price per house has increased by 24% in comparison to the same period last year. Thus, there are fewer, but more expensive, houses being sold. Wyoming’s Economic Summary estimated that the statewide home price has continued to grow but at a slower pace than last year (Economic Summary: 1Q2016).
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 54 Residential Home Sales $400,000 300 256 $350,000 250 $300,000 205
$250,000 200
$200,000 150 $150,000 100 $100,000
50
$214,263 $214,263 $199,679 $199,679 $193,497 $243,934 $274,630 $302,182 $258,397 $256,937 $240,684 $212,154 $228,991 $292,313 $286,056 $346,019
$50,000 $241,969
$- 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to July 1
Residential Home Average Price/Sale # Sold
Source: Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates
In 2012, the average sale price began to trend upward. However, in 2015, the average decreased by three percent; although, the number of sales significantly increased.
Home ownership in the United States and in Wyoming has been decreasing since 2010 as shown in the graph below. The fact that Star Valley home sales have increased significantly is impressive in comparison to the U.S. and Wyoming trends.
Home Ownership 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 US 66.0 WY 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 55 BUILDING LOT TRANSACTIONS
The total number of sales and the total value of the building lots in the Star Valley area for over ten years are illustrated below. Building lots of all sizes are included in the figures. The graph follows the typical trend of increasing until the Great Recession with a sharp decrease following. In more recent years, the trend was increasing until last year. The number sold was stagnant, and the dollar volume decreased by 49% compared to 2014. The building site sales have shown a strong start in 2016. In the first half of 2015, there were 60 building site sales. In the same period in 2016, there were 72, or a 20% increase.
Building Lot Sales $45,000,000 350 $40,000,000 300 $35,000,000 250 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 200 $20,000,000 150 $15,000,000 100 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 50 $- 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to July 1
Sold $ Volume # Sold
Source: Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates
Like the residential sales, the average price per sale for building lots is a significant real estate market indicator. In 2015, the average sale price dropped significantly by 50%. The cause of this decline could be more sales of less expensive lots. This drops the average sale price well beneath the number of lots sold. Aside from the outliers that skewed the 2013 average, the overall trend was increasing until 2015. Similar to the average price for homes, the average price for building sites in 2016 has grown in comparison to 2015. To be specific, the first half of 2016 was 26% higher than the first half of 2015.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 56 Building Site Average Price/Sale $200,000 350 $180,000 300 $160,000 $140,000 250
$120,000 200 $100,000 $80,000 150 $60,000 100 $40,000 50 $20,000 $- 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to July 1
Building Site Average Price/Sale # Sold
Source: Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates
PRIVATE SALES
This year, the bank decided to include the number of private residential sales in Afton with the generous help of Alliance Title. All known private sales, not including title or escrow only sales, is shown in the graph below. The trend is similar to the MLS reported trend.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 57 All Private (without Title or Escrow Only) $ Volume and # of Sales $10,000,000 60
$8,000,000 50 40 $6,000,000 30 $ Volume $4,000,000 # of Sales 20
$2,000,000 10
$- 0 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
However, the average price with all private sales does not follow the same trend as MLS reported, as seen below.
All Private (without Title or Escrow Only) Average Price $175,000 60
$170,000 50 40 $165,000 30 Average Price $160,000 # of Sales 20
$155,000 10
$150,000 0 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
When the commercial and agriculture sales are removed, the average sale price of private sales follows the MLS reported sales as depicted below.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 58 Non Commercial/Agriculture Average Price $175,000 50
$170,000 40
$165,000 30 Average Price $160,000 20 # of Sales
$155,000 10
$150,000 0 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
Once again, the number of sales seems to be a little lower, but the average price has increased dramatically. This indicates fewer sales, but higher prices for each sale.
FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY
Foreclosure activity has an inverse relationship with the real estate market activity and the general economic activity. Foreclosures generally happen due to job losses or tough economic times. Foreclosed homes usually sell for less than comparable homes not in foreclosure. These two factors cause the downward pressure on real estate activity and the general economic activity. Working with Alliance Title, the bank has been able to monitor the published foreclosures since 2009. The number of foreclosures has significantly decreased since the Great Recession.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 59 Lincoln County Forclosure Count 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
09 10 11 12 13 14 15
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
------
------
------
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
May May May May May May May May Source: Alliance Title
In Star Valley alone, the number of foreclosures up to July 2016 are well over half of the total foreclosures in 2015.
Number of Star Valley Foreclosues 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 60 Star Valley Foreclosure Amount $45,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $35,000,000.00 $30,000,000.00 $25,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $15,000,000.00 $10,000,000.00 $5,000,000.00 $- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
Due to recent changes in the coal and oil industries, the authors felt it was notable to add the number of Lincoln County – Non Star Valley foreclosures. The number of foreclosures in 2015 for Non Star Valley hit a new peak since the Great Recession. On the other hand, the number of foreclosures in 2016 to date is less than half of 2015 totals. According to a real estate agent in the Kemmerer, Diamondville area, the trend is positive in Kemmerer. The recession hit them later than the rest of the country. She felt that the prices of homes were not as low as last year and that new families were moving into the area.
Number of Non Star Valley Foreclosues 30
20
10
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 61 Non Star Valley Area Foreclosure Amount $6,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
A comparison of Lincoln County and Star Valley and a comparison between Star Valley and Non Star Valley are shown in the graphs below.
Lincoln County Foreclosures through August 2016 $50,000,000 200
$40,000,000 150 $30,000,000 100 167 $20,000,000 143 $10,000,000 102 82 50 46 40 23 18 $- 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Star Valley Foreclosure # Lincoln County Forclosure $ Amount
Source: Alliance Title
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 62 Star Valley and Non Star Valley Foreclosure Comparison 180 160 140 120 100 Star Valley Foreclosure # 80 Kemmerer Forclosure # 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title Star Valley and Non Star Valley $ Comparison $45,000,000.00
$40,000,000.00
$35,000,000.00
$30,000,000.00
$25,000,000.00 Star Valley Foreclosure $20,000,000.00 Kemmerer Foreclosure $15,000,000.00
$10,000,000.00
$5,000,000.00
$- 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Alliance Title
RENTAL COSTS
This year, the bank also researched the cost of renting in the Star Valley area. In order to gather this information, the bank contacted several local landlords and reviewed Misty’s list. The
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 63 results were a little surprising. The average cost of renting in the Star Valley area is close to a mortgage payment. The overall average was $934.29. The average cost for a rental house was $1,188.00, and the average for an apartment was $787.35. The average rental price by town is shown below. Caution should be used when studying the graph as some towns only had one data point to average, and thus, may be a little skewed.
$1,400.00 $1,200.00 $1,000.00 $800.00 $600.00 $400.00 $200.00 $-
Source: Local landlords and Misty’s List
The Alpine, Etna, and SVR average shows that the commuter population that lives in the Lower Valley are a primary price driver for rent costs.
MORTGAGE FILINGS
The number and dollar amount of mortgages is another indicator of real estate market activity and general economic activity. Since May 2004, the Bank has been tracking this data thanks to the help of the Lincoln County Clerk. As can been seen below, the number of mortgages fell with the recession. The numbers started to climb again in 2012 and have hovered about $100,000 since.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 64 North Lincoln County Mortgage Filings (Amount in $ Thousands) $250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Local Banks Local Finance/Mortgage Brokers Jackson Based Banks & Mortgage Company
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 65 ARTICLE REFERENCES
Block, Sandra. "10 Best States for Taxes on Retirees." Www.kiplinger.com. N.p., Oct. 2015. Web. Aug. 2016.
Carlyle, Erin. "The Best And Worst States For Taxes." Forbes. N.p., 15 Apr. 2015. Web. July 2016.
"Glossary." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. N.p., 7 June 2016. Web. July 2016.
Haines, Thomas B. "Living a Western Life The Uncommon Beauty of Wyoming's Alpine Airpark." Aopa.org. N.p., 11 May 2016. Web. 11 July 2016.
Hancock, Laura. "Mead Announces $248M in Budget Cuts, Nearly 700 Private-sector Layoffs." Casper Star Tribune. N.p., 21 June 2016. Web. July 2016.
Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates. Jackson Hole Market Report 2015. N.p., July 2016. Web. July 2016.
Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates. Star Valley Real Estate Market Report Mid-Year 2016. N.p., July 2016. Web. 2 Aug. 2016.
Matthews, Chris. "This Playground for the Rich Is the Most Economically Unequal City in America." Fortune This Playground for the Rich Is the Most Economically Unequal City in America Comments. N.p., 17 June 2016. Web. 22 June 2016.
Morath, Eric. "U.S. in Weakest Recovery Since ‘49." Wall Street Journal 30-31 July 2016, Vol. CCLXVIII ed., No. 25 sec.: A1-A2. Print.
State of Wyoming. Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. Revenue Update April 2016. Economic Analysis Division. N.p., Apr. 2016. Web. July 2016.
State of Wyoming. Consensus Revenue Estimating Group. Revenue Update July 2016. Economic Analysis Division. N.p., July 2016. Web. July 2016.
State of Wyoming. Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG). Wyoming State Government Revenue Forecast Fiscal Year 2016 – Fiscal Year 2020. Economic Analysis Division. N.p., Jan. 2016. Web. July 2016.
State of Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division. Economic Summary: 1Q2016. Economic Analysis Division. N.p., July 2016. Web. July 2016.
Storrow, Benjamin. "PacifiCorp to Close Coal Unit at Kemmerer Power Plant." Casper Star Tribune. N.p., 31 Mar. 2016. Web. 1 Apr. 2016.
Bank of Star Valley 2016 Economic and Demographic Review Page # 66