ESSP II Working Paper 44 Spatial Analysis of Livestock Production Patterns in Ethiopia Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute – Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, Ethiopia Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) ESSP II Working Paper 44 October 2012 IFPRI-ADDIS ABABA IFPRI HEADQUARTERS P.O. Box 5689 International Food Policy Research Institute Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 Tel: +251-11-646-2921 USA Fax: +251-11-646-2318 Tel: +1-202-862-5600 E-mail: [email protected] Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice http://essp.ifpri.info/ Fax: +1-202-467-4439 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.ifpri.org THE ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM II (ESSP II) WORKING PAPERS ABOUT ESSP II The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II is an initiative to strengthen evidence-based policymaking in Ethiopia in the areas of rural and agricultural development. Facilitated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), ESSP II works closely with the government of Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), and other development partners to provide information relevant for the design and implementation of Ethiopia’s agricultural and rural development strategies. For more information, see http://www.ifpri.org/book- 757/ourwork/program/ethiopia-strategy-support-program orhttp://essp.ifpri.info/ or http://www.edri.org.et/. ABOUT THESE WORKING PAPERS The Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) Working Papers contain preliminary material and research results from IFPRI and/or its partners in Ethiopia. The papers are not subject to a formal peer review. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their home institutions or supporting organizations. About the Author(s) Emily Schmidt: Country Program Coordinator and GIS Specialist, Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Helina Tilahun: GIS Analyst, Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ii Spatial Analysis of Livestock Production Patterns in Ethiopia Helina Tilahun and Emily Schmidt Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute – Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II, Ethiopia Copyright © 2012 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this material may be reproduced for personal and not-for-profit use without the express written permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. To reproduce the material contained herein for profit or commercial use requires express written permission. To obtain permission, contact the Communications Division at [email protected]. iii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ vi 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................1 2. Data and methods ...........................................................................................................1 3. Livestock production in Ethiopia .......................................................................................2 4. Agro-pastoralist and pastoralist regions in Ethiopia ..........................................................7 5. Livestock population and market access ..........................................................................8 6. Change in pressure on grazing land in Ethiopia ............................................................. 11 7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................14 Appendix .............................................................................................................................15 References ..........................................................................................................................20 iv List of Tables Table 3.1—Livestock population by region, 2007/08 (thousands) .......................................... 3 Table 3.2—Sheep and goat to cattle ratio in Ethiopia, 2001–2008 ......................................... 6 Table 4.1—Somali region livestock population estimates (thousands) ................................... 7 Table 6.1—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of land in East Africa .......................................... 11 Table 6.2—Tropical livestock unit per km2 of grazing land ................................................... 12 List of Figures Figure 3.1—Cattle, sheep and goat population, 2005–2008 ................................................. 2 Figure 3.2—Estimated cattle population: cattle population per household and woreda, 2007/08 ............................................................................................................ 4 Figure 3.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per household and woreda, 2007/08 ...... 5 Figure 3.4—Number of sheep and goats to cattle in Ethiopia and Kenya, 2000–2009 .......... 6 Figure 5.1—Percent of cattle located within 5 hours of a livestock market, 2001 and 2007 ................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 5.2—Percent of sheep and goats located within 5 hours of a livestock market, 2001 and 2007 ................................................................................................. 9 Figure 5.3—Access to livestock markets and regional cattle share, 2001 and 2007 ........... 10 Figure 6.2—Estimated percent of livestock disease and death* in 2007/08 ........................ 13 Appendix List Table A.1—Regional livestock population, 2005/06 (thousands) ........................................ 15 Table A.2—Regional livestock population, 2006/07 (thousands) ........................................ 15 Figure B.1—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2001/02............................................ 16 Figure B.2—Estimated cattle population per woreda, 2007/08............................................ 16 Figure B.3—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2001/02 ............................ 17 Figure B.4—Estimated sheep and goat population per woreda, 2007/08 ............................ 17 Table C.1—EASE census livestock count, 2001/02 (thousands) ........................................ 18 Table D.1—Estimated livestock populations in Somali Regional State, 2009 ...................... 18 Table E.1—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2001/02 (percent) .......... 18 Table E.2—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2001/02 (percent) ......................................................................................................... 19 Table E.3—Travel time of cattle production to livestock markets, 2007/08 (percent) .......... 19 Table E.4—Travel time of sheep and goat production to livestock markets, 2007/08 (percent) ......................................................................................................... 19 v Abstract The livestock sector is a large contributor to the Ethiopian economy as well as a mainstay in the livelihoods of many Ethiopians. It comprised 11 percent of national GDP and 24 percent of agricultural GDP between the years of 1995/96 and 2005/06 (NBE 2005/06). Livestock production and markets vary substantially across space in Ethiopia due to a variety of reasons including topographical variations, market access, water availability, and population characteristics. This study links smallholder livestock population data from the Agricultural Census (2001/02) and data from the annual CSA Agricultural Sample Survey (2005 to 2008) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data in order to assess livestock population, market access, and grazing land. We utilize existing studies of travel time (Schmidt and Kedir 2009) to calculate shares of livestock (cattle, sheep and goat) populations within defined travel time thresholds of major markets. In addition, we attempt to provide greater insight of changes in available grazing land given increasing human and livestock population pressure. vi 1. Introduction Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa (Hussen et al. 2008; Solomon et al. 2003).The livestock subsector comprised 11 percent of national GDP and 24 percent of agricultural GDP between the years of 1995/96 and 2005/061, and is a source of revenue for 60–70 percent of the population (NBE 2005/06;Halderman 2004). According to Negassa and Jabbar (2008), 80 percent of smallholder farmers own cattle, 31–38 percent own sheep, and 21–33 percent own goats. Previous research suggests that the combination of livestock species owned by smallholders varies spatially given availability of feed, human population density, and intended function of livestock species. In highly populated areas, smaller livestock (sheep, goats, etc.) are preferred over large animals that require large expanses of grazing land. In the highlands where crop production requires intensive tillage, draft animals such as oxen or mules are necessary (Jabbar, Negassa, and Gidyelew 2007). This spatial variation in livestock population, coupled with other factors such as population density, grazing land availability, and access to markets has implications in grazing land management and livestock