Throw Me a Lifeline: a Comparison of Port Cities with Antithetical Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level Rise Claudia Marie Risner Old Dominion University
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Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Spring 2018 Throw Me a Lifeline: A Comparison of Port Cities with Antithetical Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level Rise Claudia Marie Risner Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the Climate Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Risner, Claudia M.. "Throw Me a Lifeline: A Comparison of Port Cities with Antithetical Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level Rise" (2018). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/dmq1-r435 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/23 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THROW ME A LIFELINE: A COMPARISON OF PORT CITIES WITH ANTITHETICAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO SEA-LEVEL RISE by Claudia Marie Risner B.S. June 1977, University of Illinois M.S. May 1987, University of Southern California M.S. March 1990, Naval Postgraduate School M.A. November 1994, Naval War College A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY May 2018 Approved by: Regina Karp (Director) David Earnest (Member) Hans-Peter Plag (Member) Steve Yetiv (Member) ABSTRACT THROW ME A LIFELINE: A COMPARISON OF PORT CITIES WITH ANTITHETICAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO SEA-LEVEL RISE Claudia Marie Risner Old Dominion University, 2018 Director: Dr. Regina Karp Sea-level rise (SLR) is a manifestation of climate change that is particularly hazardous to port cities that must remain on the waterfront to function, yet are increasingly battered and flooded by encroaching storms, and sinking into the rising saltwater. Despite sharing a common high level of risk, port cities are choosing antithetical adaptation strategies that range from hard-engineered structural flood protection, to behavioral modifications, to innovative soft- engineered measures, to doing nothing at all. Why is this? Are transnational city networks, such as C40 Cities, a lifeline to drowning cities? Do differences in governance structure, financial capacity, risk tolerance to the hazard, or the influence of special interest groups matter? These factors and the interplay of civil, public, and corporate actors in the context of changing environmental conditions are examined in this cross-disciplinary qualitative study to understand their effects on adaptation decision-making processes over time. Four at-risk global port cities—Venice, Rotterdam, Guangzhou, and Miami—were selected for comparison based on their antithetical adaptation strategies of retreating, climate proofing, innovating, and denying. The Panarchy model of nested four-stage adaptive renewal cycles frames the ongoing and cross-scalar interaction of stakeholders and special interest groups at the city, national, transnational, and international levels. This methodology enables the identification of patterns, power distributions, and path dependencies that contribute to appropriate or maladaptive adaptation. As is characteristic of complex adaptive systems, this study finds that decisions cannot be correlated with a single factor. For those cities that display key characteristics of resilience, SLR is a catalyst for proactive and appropriate adaptation. For others, socio-economic and socio-political factors trump environmental factors in deciding whether, when, and how a city decreased its risk to SLR hazard. iv Copyright, 2018, by Claudia Marie Risner, All Rights Reserved v I dedicate this dissertation to both the idea that society only truly thrives when we have a harmonious relationship with the environment that is our life-support system, and to the collective whose efforts make that idea our reality. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I want to thank my husband and editor-in-chief, Rick Moody, whose support, critical review, patience, and love made this the wonderful experience that it has been. I also want to thank my mentors, Dr. David Earnest who guided, encouraged, and invested so much time in me over the years, despite the miles and time zones, on this journey of exploration and learning; Dr. Regina Karp who advised me through three years of coursework and supported and guided me toward closure; Dr. Steve Yetiv who planted the seed of this idea of networked cities as political agents in a global order of nations and provided parsimonious insight to keep me on track; and Dr. Han-Peter Plag who inspired me to bring the Earth back into our international political economy and encouraged me at every opportunity. In the course of this process I feel that I have gained immensely from my association with these scholars, with the most important benefit being their friendship. A note of thanks to Ms. Grazia Coletti and boat captain Manuel Eulisse who provided both logistical assistance and valuable local knowledge insight to the Venice case study during my field research trip in November 2016. Nothing compares to walking in their galoshes and seeing the effects of SLR first hand. I also want to thank my classmates, colleagues, and friends whose humor, understanding, and insight provided the feeling of solidarity one needs to accomplish such a personal milestone. A special call out to Mary Bell, Dawn Driesbach, Joanne Fish, and Christina Slentz for their encouragement and friendship. I hope to repay those still on their journeys and pay it forward to anyone considering such an endeavor. And to my family members, Valerie, Randy, Joe, and Andrew who read my drafts and provided helpful feedback and encouragement along the way. Lastly, thanks to my mom and dad who instilled in me a love of learning and a sense that nothing would ever be beyond my reach. vii NOMENCLATURE Abbreviation Meaning 100RC 100 Resilient Cities AAL Average Annual Losses ACCCRN Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network AG Adaptive Governance AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AR4 Fourth Assessment Report AR5 Fifth Assessment Report BW-12 Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2011 C40 Cities C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CDBC China Development Bank Capital CDC Connecting Delta Cities CO2 Carbon Dioxide COP 21 Conference of the Parties CPC Communist Party of China CRF City Resilience Framework CRO Chief Resilience Officer ES Ecosystem Services EU European Union FCPA Florida Community Planning Act FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency GHG Greenhouse Gas GOP Grand Old Party IEA International Energy Agency INGO International Non-governmental Organization IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPE International Political Economy IR International Relations OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NGO Non-governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency NSA Non-state Actor NYC New York City PPP Public-Private Partnership PRC Peoples Republic of China RAT Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability RCP Representative Concentration Pathways RPA Rotterdam Port Authority viii SES Socio-ecological System SFRCCC Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact SLR Sea level rise TAN Transnational Advocacy Network TCCG Transnational Climate Change Governance TCN Transnational City Network UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction U.S. United States of America USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers WHS World Heritage Site ix GLOSSARY Word Definition Adaptation The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. (IPCC, 2013) Hazard A process, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. (UNISDR) Network Forms of organizations characterized by voluntary, reciprocal, and horizontal patterns of communication and exchange. A network’s primary functions are information sharing, capacity building and implementation, and rule setting. (Keck and Sikkink, 1998) Panarchy A conceptual framework to account for the dual, and seemingly contradictory, characteristics of all complex systems—stability and change. It is an integrative framework, bringing together economic, ecological, and social models of change and stability to account for the complex interactions among these different areas and different scale levels. It connects ecosystem functioning with economic activities and human institutions for managing the relation between the two. (The Sustainable Scale Project at Resilience Alliance) Resilience The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. (Folke, 2006, refs Walker et al., 2004) Social Capital The networks and resources available to people because of their connections.