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Georgetown Security Studies Review Special Edition: The Changing Calculus of Security and Violence November 2015 A Publication of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service http://gssr.georgetown.edu Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 1 Georgetown Security Studies Review Published by the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service Katelyn Lawrenz, Editor-in-Chief Devon Hill, Deputy Editor-in-Chief Jacob Goldstein, Associate Editor for Africa John Chen, Associate Editor for Asia Ashley Rhoades, Associate Editor for the Middle East Preston Marquis, Associate Editor for National Security & the Military Michael Sexton, Associate Editor for Cyber Security Access Georgetown Security Studies Review online at http://gssr.georgetown.edu Connect on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/GeorgetownUniversityGSSR Follow GSSR on Twitter @gssreview 1 Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 2 Contact the Editor-in-Chief at [email protected] DISCLAIMER The views expressed in Georgetown Security Studies Review (GSSR) do not necessarily represent those of the editors or staff of GSSR, the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, or Georgetown University. The editorial board of GSSR and our affiliated peer reviewers strive to verify the accuracy of all factual information contained in GSSR. However, the staffs of GSSR, the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, and Georgetown University make no warranties or representations regarding the completeness or accuracy of information contained in GSSR and assume no legal liability or responsibility for the content of any work contained therein. A NOTE ON THE SPECIAL EDITION Each article in this special edition is research conducted by students selected to present at the Georgetown University Center for Security Studies’ symposium entitled, “The Changing Calculus of Security and Violence.” The symposium took place on Saturday, November 21, 2015, at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. 2 Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 3 Table of Contents Ethno-Demographic Dynamics of the Rohingya-Buddhist Conflict ...................................................................................... 5 Rachel Blomquist Forecasting Group Efficacy in the Intelligence Community Using Female Communication Metrics ................................ 34 Carolyn Elizabeth Clemens Operation Artemis: A Template for Western Multilateral Intervention? .......................................................................... 54 Jason Hartwig The Future of Conflict: A Study of Boko Haram and Hybrid Warfare ..................................................................... 79 Zachary Henderson Defending Against Hybrid Warfare in Estonia ................. 106 Matthew Mullarky State-Regulated Islam and its Internal Security Implications for China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.................................................................................... 129 Zi Yang Behind Electromagnetic Railgun: Redefining the Future Cost Calculus of Surface Warfare ...................................... 148 Rhys McCormick Pakistan’s Urban Militant Threat: Challenges and Opportunities for Police-Led Counterinsurgency ............. 171 Hijab Shah 3 Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 4 Responses to Violence: Building Resilience and Engaging Societ in Mexico (2010-2014)……………………………...192 Marcela Valdivia Correa Kenya's 9/11: The Effects of the Garissa University College Attack on Kenyan Counterterrorism Policy……………..227 Jacob Goldstein El Salvador's Gangs and Prevailing Gang Paradigms in a Post-Truce Context………………………………………...249 Michael Lohmuller 4 Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 5 Ethno-Demographic Dynamics of the Rohingya-Buddhist Conflict Rachel Blomquist Ethno-demographic grievances define the conflict between Buddhist and Rohingya-Muslim populations in the Rakhine State of Myanmar. Nationalistic Buddhist leaders, such as the controversial monk Ashin Wirathu, maintain that the Rohingya population’s rapid growth and high fertility rates threaten to overtake local Buddhist populations. This study seeks to identify quantitative and qualitative differences between the Rohingya and Buddhist populations in Rakhine State and to elucidate the theoretical and practical implications for Buddhist-Rohingya relations. Due to the government’s decision to avoid enumeration of self-identifying Rohingya, this study has relied on several recent local surveys to reconstruct a local demographic description of the Rohingya. The “Minority Demographic Security Dilemma” theory, which specifies expectations for minority-majority conflicts and their resolution, will be used to discuss the relevant forces that underlie the Buddhist-Rohingya conflict.1 Recent communal conflict in the Rakhine State of Myanmar has culminated in the displacement of the Rohingya community—a Muslim minority living in the northwestern 1 I would like to thank Georgetown University’s Asian Studies Program and the Stimson Center for their support in the making of this study. I would also like to thank Dr. Richard Cincotta for his mentorship and his expertise and insight on this research. Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 6 regions of the Rakhine State. These conflicts, such as the Rakhine State riots in 2012, resulted in the destruction of Rohingya homes and have led to a recent wave of Rohingya “boat people” seeking refuge along the shorelines and coastal waterways of neighboring Southeast Asian nations. Politicized Buddhist monks and associations, such as Ashin Wirathu, the MaBaTha, and the 969 Movement, regularly exploit demographic fears by espousing anti-Muslim rhetoric. To justify discrimination, ethno-centric Buddhists often claim that the Rohingya, sustained by high fertility and rapid population growth rates, threaten to overwhelm local Buddhist communities in the Rakhine State. The relationship between demographics and regional ethnic relations depicts significant demographic differences between Rohingya and Buddhists communities in the Rakhine State, and these differences clarify the nature of the conflict. This study analyzes the conflict between the Rohingya-Muslims and the local Buddhist population in the Rakhine State of western Myanmar through an analysis of demographic differences. Demographic comparisons of the Rohingya and similar youthful populations reveal that the Rohingya has a younger population than other members of the Rakhine State. The age differences of these populations create a cyclical relationship of fear and response among regional stakeholders. Political-demographic models adeptly pertain to the voiced demographic issues in Myanmar. However, theoretical research by Christian Leuprecht addresses ethnic conflict as typified by communal conflict in the Rakhine State. Leuprecht’s model, known as the “Demographic Security Dilemma,” examines a cyclical relationship of demographics and regional ethnic relations by studying the interactions of a politically dominant low-fertility population and a large, more youthful minority. Leuprecht demonstrates that conflict arises when the politically Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 7 dominant majority perceives that a ‘youthful’ secondary minority population will overtake and possibly displace the majority. The ostensible threat leads to political suppression of the minority, thus exacerbating communal conflict and sustaining high fertility and growth rates of the minority. Based on Leuprecht’s model, this study asks two questions pertaining to the Rohingya: 1. How does the Rohingya’s total fertility rate, age structure, and rate of growth compare to that of Rakhine citizens, to the Myanmar population at large, and to other distinct ethnic groups of this country? 2. How might Rohingya demography, vis-à-vis the majority Buddhist populations affect the Rohingya’s political relationship with the Myanmar state? Unfortunately, insufficient ethno-demographic data limit the development of a comprehensive demographic study of the Rohingya. Several published estimates of this minority’s birth and death rates only infer a rough estimate of the Rohingya fertility and age structure. Assessment of data on Myanmar requires critical discernment and care due to limited access to primary sources. Also, previous government policies of restricting information, has limited the scope of a wide variety of in-depth demographic analysis. Consistent omissions include exclusion from census enumeration of the Rohingya in the Rakhine State and census enumeration of minorities in conflict areas of the Kachin and Karen states. The 2014 Census estimated the potential number of non-enumerated persons in 2 each state; however, specific data are not available. Despite 2 Note: An analysis of the Kachin age structure provided from the 2014 Census reveals an extraordinary imbalance in the sex ratio. The 2014 Census notes male out-migration to work in mines in other regions may cause this imbalance. Georgetown Security Studies Review: Special Edition 8 these limitations, this inquiry reinforces existing studies on the Rohingya by extrapolating available demographic data. Regarding minority-majority relations in Myanmar, application of terminology requires adequate sensitivity and specificity with apt definitions that preclude contentious biases. To legitimize the ruling junta, Burma changed its name in 1989 to ‘Myanmar’,