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Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study

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Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study Custom Map ©2011 Esri On-demandRETAIL reports and maps from Business MARKET Analyst Online. Order at www.esri.com/bao ANALYSIS or call 800-447-9778 6/15/2011 Chapel Hill, North Carolina Part Two: Existing Conditions, Local and Regional Trends and Strategic Considerations July 2011 Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study Prepared for The Town of Chapel Hill TABLE OF CONTENTS by Glossary 4 Development Concepts, Inc. Section 1: Existing Conditions 6 1236 East 16th Street Indianapolis, Indiana 46202 Section 2: Retail Trends 21 and Section 3: Conclusions 30 Gentleman McCarty 405 Bent Tree Lane Indianapolis, Indiana 46260 2 Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study OVERVIEW This Study examines the existing conditions and major Key questions and issues that this Study aimed to address trends related to commercial retail development, both were: within the Town of Chapel Hill and its environs, as well as the larger Triangle region of Raleigh, Cary, Durham and • Verification of the findings from Nielson Claritas using Chapel Hill. This analysis is intended to provide information complimentary information and analysis; to the Town of Chapel Hill for the purpose of crafting a development strategy relative to future retail development. • A thorough inventory and analysis of Chapel Hill’s existing retail businesses and centers; This Report, the second part of the Town’s Retail Market Study initiative, is intended to assist Chapel Hill in • Examination of the regional demographic and retail examining opportunities to expand its non-residential tax trends surrounding Chapel Hill that have a direct base. The first part was an analysis of the market within influence on the Town’s capacity to add retail the Town of Chapel Hill by Nielson Claritas in 2008. development; The Nielson Claritas study demonstrated a significant • Identification of market and trade areas for Chapel Hill amount of retail “leakage” or dollars representing retail and the best sub-markets within those areas for retail demand that were being spent outside of the community. growth and capture; Together with the demand from employees, the Report estimated strong opportunity to capture future retail • Identification of available (re)development sites within development within the Town. Chapel Hill and estimates of how much and what type of retail is appropriate for each site; and The Town of Chapel Hill, U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and ESRI Business Analyst were the primary • A discussion of the key issues for the Town to consider sources of data for this Study. The analysis and discussion as it crafts a strategy for retail development. of this data reflects only the interpretation and opinion of Development Concepts, Inc. and Gentlmen McCarty. Much of the data provided in this report is meant to portray retail demand as an order of magnatute, as opposed to precise estimates of consumer expenditure and future retail development. The consultant team cautions users of this repor to consider this in making policy decisions. Given the nature of this study, the consultant team attempted to objectively offer the most probably and realistic forecasts for retail demand. This analysis was conducted by Development Concepts, Inc. and Gentleman McCarty as independent parties, are neither are agents of the City by virtue of this or any subsequent study to be conducted on this matter. 3 Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study Neighborhood Center - provides for the sale of convenience GLOSSARY goods (foods, drugs, and sundries) and personal services (laundry and dry cleaning, barbering, shoe repair, GEOGRAPHIC DEFINITIONS etc.) for the day-to-day living needs of the immediate neighborhood. It is built around a supermarket as the This Study refers to a number of different geographies for principal tenant and typically contains a gross leaseable analysis. They are described below: area of about 60,000 square feet. In practice, it may range in size from 30,000 to 100,000 square feet. Triangle Region - This is an informal name for the Raleigh- Durham-Cary Combined Metropolitan Statistical Area Community Center - provides a wider range of soft lines (CMSA) as defined by the Office of Management and (apparel for men, women and children) and hard lines Budget (OMB). The CMSA consists of Wake, Franklin, (hardware and appliances). The community center Johnston, Durham, Orange, Person and Chatham makes merchandise available in a greater variety of sizes, Counties. The CMSA is a combination of the Raleigh- styles, colors, and prices. Many centers are built around Cary Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the a junior department store, variety store, super drugstore, Durham-Chapel Hill MSA, which did not exist during the or discount department store as the major tenant, in 2000 census. addition to a supermarket. Although a Community Center does not have a full-line department store, it may have Raleigh-Cary MSA - This Metropolitan Statistical Area a strong speciality store or stores. Its typical size is (MSA) consists of Wake, Franklin and Johnston counties. about 150,000 square feet of gross leasable area, but in Its two principal cities are Raleigh and Cary. practice it may range from 100,000 to 500,000 or more square feet. Durham-Chapel Hill MSA - This MSA consists of Durham, Orange, Person, and Chatham Counties. The principal Super Community Center - centers that fit the general cities are Durham and Chapel Hill. profile of a community center but contain more than 250,000 square feet. Town of Chapel Hill - The Town of Chapel Hill is primarily located in Orange County, with a small section located in Power Center - a type of super community center. Durham County. The 2009 American Community Survey These anchors typically emphasize hard goods such as estimated the Town’s population to be 54,972. consumer electronics, sporting goods, office supplies, home furnishings, home improvement goods, bulk TYPES OF RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS - foods, drugs, health and beauty aids, toys and personal (from the Urban Land Institute) computer hardware / software. They tend to be narrowly focused but deeply merchandised “category killers” Convenience Center - provides for the sale of personal together with the more broadly merchandised, price services and convenience goods similar to those of a oriented warehouse clubs and discount department neighborhood center. It contains a minimum of three stores. Anchors in power centers typically occupy 85 stores, with a total gross leaseable area (GLA) of up percent or more of the GLA. to 30,000 square feet. Instead of being anchored by a supermarket, a convenience center usually is anchored Regional Center - provides general merchandise, apparel, by some other type of personal / convenience store such furniture, and home furnishings in depth and variety, as as a minimarket. well as a range of services and recreational facilities. It is built around one or two full-line department stores. Its typical size is about 500,000 square feet of gross leasable 4 Town of Chapel Hill Retail Market Study Triangle Metropolitan Region Source: Office of Management and Budget, U.S. Census PERSON Raleigh-Cary Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Durham-Chapel Hill Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Town of Chapel Hill City of Durham Town of Cary ORANGE DURHAM City of Raleigh FRANKLIN 65 WAKE 465 70 E CHATHAM S Chapel Hill Retail Sites U ¯ O H L L I April, 2011 M 1 JOHNSTON D NKS R EUBA 2 M T M WEAVER DAIRY O 74 R 4 IA 20 3 H K I 5 N G 465 S T R O O N G E R S 6 N I A M T HOMESTEA N 01 D A H 5 U 5 C R S 7 O 1 S A S T M U L G 18 I Y L N E 17 E E N W I L P A U M RD E URHA T S OLD D H E E Chapel Hill P D area. In practice, it may rangeR from 250,000 to more Lifestyle RCenter - a shopping centerI or mixed-use T O 4 K S 15 N P IO 0 than 900,000 square feet. TheI regional center provides N N ESTES I commercialG development that combines the traditional L 14 E G K L services typical of a business district yet not as extensiveN EPHESUS CH RD J A 13 retail functions of a shopping mall but with leisure R R F 16 as those of the super regional center.B amenities oriented towards upscale consumers. L V T D 12 S R U D H Super Regional Center - offersA extensive variety in general E E Mixed Use - vertically stacked uses in a single building, T N I S D M 19 P merchandise, apparel, furnU iture, and home furnishings, V typically residential units or office space above ground L CLELAND H B IL asL well as a variety of services and recreational facilities. floor space dedicated to either retail, services, dining or S M B A E M O E A TR I H N It isR built around three or more full-lineRY R department offices.G O A A IN U EM L D RN G S E R U H O I B stores. They typical size Rof a super regionalG center is O 8 N H O R O R R F Retail Sites O A about 1,000,000 square feet ofM GLA.E In practice, theLEI B G A TH H R S C SOU D 1. Eubanks Road N 21 size ranges fromE about 500,000 to more than 1,500,000 E 2. Chapel Hill North F R A 22 A G I L 3. Timberlyne ShR opping square feet. IL B M 23 R T M M 9 I IT U A 4 4.
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