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Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge Climate Inventory and Summary

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Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge Climate Inventory and Summary U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge Climate Inventory and Summary By Rachel Esralew, Hydrologist, Pacific Southwest Region Inventory and Monitoring Program U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to summarize existing and observed trends in temperature and precipitation patterns and forecast climate change projections for temperature and precipitation near the Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge (Antioch). This report is in support of a Natural Resources Management Plan (NRMP) for the refuge. The mean monthly temperature near Antioch ranged from 40.5 to 79.6 °F with minimum temperatures in January and December and maximum temperatures in July. Mean total water year precipitation near Antioch was 12.51 inches per year (ranging from 5.77 to 24.8 inches per year). Monthly and annual precipitation are highly variable; even though December 2014 was one of the wettest on record, the driest year in the San Joaquin Drainage Climate Division also occurred in 2014. Average daily reference evapotranspiration over the period of record is 0.15 inch and has ranged from 0 to 0.41 inches over the period of record. One might expect a greater likelihood of warmer conditions near Antioch during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and positive phase of the Pacific North American pattern (PNA). No associated was observed between any parameter and El Niño/La Niña, or any teleconnection index and precipitation. All seasons and months showed increases temperature over the period 1893 to 2014, but no precipitation trends were observed for any time period tested. Only cool season average temperature increased constantly and persistently over every time period tested. Increases in cool season average temperatures ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 °F per year (ranging from 1.6 to 2.4 °F over the time periods tested). Within the refuge boundary, changes in 30-year forecasts for precipitation were most uncertain among models, showing either decreases or increases by 2100. Changes in mean 30-year precipitation at Antioch ranged from -17.9 to +31.5 percent (-9.8 to 17.3 inches). Changes in 30-year forecasts for maximum and minimum temperature showed an increase under all model and emission scenarios by 2100, with increases in historic mean maximum temperature ranging from +3.7 to +7.9 °F by 2100, while increases in the historic mean minimum temperature ranged from +0.9 to +6.8 °F. Changes in 30-year forecasts for water demand (climatic water deficit) showed an increase under all models from 2070 to 2100 (+1.3 to +7.1 inches per year) with the exception of the Csiro model, in which decreases were observed (-0.9 inches). Increases represent a 3 to 16.7 percent increase in water demand. Models showing increases in water demand indicates that outside source of water might be needed in the future to maintain existing habitats. The refuge does not currently irrigate habitat with external water supply. Investigation into the water requirements for vegetation and ROC targets would be helpful for planning to determine whether outside sources of water might be needed in the future to offset deficits. Background Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge is a wildlife refuge established in 1980 to conserve habitat for three endangered species: Lange’s metalmark butterfly (Apodemia mormo langei), Contra Costa wallflower (Erysimum capitatum angustatum) and Antioch Dunes evening primrose (Oenothera deltoides howellii). The refuge consists of 55 acres of former dunes, and is connected to 12 acres of land owned by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). This area is an isolated patch that was part of a larger dune system. Restoration and improvement to dune habitat is currently underway (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2002). The refuge manages habitat through a variety of restoration and enhancement projects, including survey and monitoring; captive breeding of Lange’s; weed control using manual, mechanical, and herbicides; import of sand for dune restoration; revegetation using native plants; and prescribed burns and management of firebreaks (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2002). The refuge is adjacent to the San Joaquin River and is tidally influenced. The riparian corridor is approximately 10 feet wide and includes steep embankments along the river’s edge. The San Joaquin River near the refuge is a saline system. As of 2002, tides result in water level fluctuations from about 3 feet above sea level at high tide to about 2.2 feet below sea level at low tide during a typical tidal cycle. The refuge overlays shallow groundwater, with water levels between 15 and 30 feet below land surface as of 1999. The refuge does not use much water for management, with the exception of a fire hydrant used for fire suppression (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2002: 23). The Natural Resources Management Plan for Antioch Dunes National Wildlife Refuge (referred to in the remainder of this report at “Antioch”) is designed to assist refuges with development and prioritization of management strategies to help address key resources of concern (ROC). The process to establish an NRMP includes evaluating threats to ROCs, of which climate variability and climate change are major influences (G. Block, Pacific Southwest Region Inventory and Monitoring Specialist, oral communication, October 2014). Selected priority ROCs for the NRMP project include Lange’s metalmark butterfly, Contra Costa wallflower, Antioch Dunes evening primrose, and dune habitat (G. Block, USFWS Biologist, oral communication, June 2015). Climate change has the potential to threaten ROCs and refuge operations in a variety of ways. Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes as a result of climate change have the possibility to affect the abundance and distribution of selected ROCs that utilize refuge habitats. Sea level rise and increases in storm surge will likely have an impact on dune habitat if actions are not taken to protect shorelines. However, summary of sea level rise impacts were beyond the scope of this report. The purpose of this report is to summarize existing and observed temperature and precipitation patterns and trends near the refuge and in an area of interest or influence to refuge resources. This includes 1.) a summary of recent averages in temperature and precipitation, 2.) an analysis of correlation between temperature and precipitation and larger global teleconnection indexes, 3.) historic trends in temperature and precipitation, and 4.) projections of temperature and precipitation under selected global climate models and a variety of climate change scenarios. Methods Identification of Hydrologic Data Used in Summary Identification of Spatial Boundary Conditions to Inventory Hydroclimate and Hydrologic Monitoring Data All climate stations that provided data for this report were selected by defining a region of hydrologic influence for climate (climate RHI) for Antioch. The climate RHI was estimated by conducting a spatial cluster analysis of 30-year mean temperature and precipitation from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM; PRISM Climate Group 2014, see description of dataset in later sections). The Iso Cluster tool was used in Arc 10.1 (ESRI, 2012) and run with a Maximum Likelihood Estimator to assign distinct classifications among groups of cells in the input rasters (30-year mean temperature and precipitation). This clustering was used to select areas of similar temperature and precipitation among a boundary area. The boundary mask was set as the Level 3 Ecoregion (Marine West Coast Forest, Griffith et al. 2008). A maximum of 3 possible classifications were calculated throughout the selected area. A 30 mile buffer from the refuge was intersected with the resulting classification to select a relatively local area to the refuge. Lines were generalized manually to create a polygon to represent the climate RHI (figure 1). Inventory of Hydroclimate and Hydrologic Monitoring Data All climate monitoring stations that provided data for this report were selected within the climate RHI boundary described above. Monitoring station locations and data were referenced and obtained using only publicly available internet sources and refuge archival records. If fully processed and readily available in digital format at the time of this report, data from selected monitoring stations were used to characterize recent hydrologic conditions and to assess trends. If monitoring station information for the same station was provided on more than one database or server, then a decision was made: if a server provided more easily accessible location information or hydrologic data, or included a longer period of record for that station, then that server was selected. Not all data from stations inventoried as shown in appendix B table B1 were used in this report because some stations’ periods of record were too short to identify trends or to describe hydrologic variability. However, omitted stations were listed for potential use in other assessments. Climate monitoring stations were inventoried to determine which stations provided data that represented climate conditions at the refuge or in the climate RHI. Sources of climate station information included the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS; California Department of Water Resources 2015a), Integrated Pest Management Program California Weather Database (IPM, University of California–Davis 2015), U.S.
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