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Chapter One: Introduction SUCCESS? ESDP military conflict management operations: 2003-2009 Annemarie Peen Rodt. PhD, MA, BA Hons. PhD thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham August 2009 1 Abstract From 2003 to 2009, the EU launched five military conflict management operations within the framework of the European Security and Defence Policy. This thesis examines their success. To this end, the thesis develops a definition and a set of criteria for success. It applies this theoretical framework in an empirical case study of success in the five EU operations, which were undertaken in Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad and the Central African Republic. Having established the level and nature of their success, the thesis goes on to examine the conditions under which ESDP military conflict management operations can be successful. The key finding of the research is that for an operation of this nature to succeed, it is necessary that it secures sufficient support internally, within the EU, and externally, outside the EU, from domestic, regional and international actors involved in the conflict and its management. 2 Acknowledgements There are many people to whom I owe gratitude with regard to this thesis. Those who have inspired me on this journey are far too many to mention. I am thankful to my interviewees for sharing their time, knowledge and experiences with me and to academic peers, who have encouraged and challenged my ideas over the last three years. I would like to take this opportunity to thank a few people, who have made a particularly great difference to me and to my research throughout the process of writing this thesis. My most sincere thanks go to Stefan Wolff. I could not have asked for a better supervisor. Thank you for always taking a personal interest in my research and believing in my ability. Thanks go out also to my former colleagues in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially to Linda and Larry Butler. I would like to thank Alex Danchev for his enthusiasm, Catherine Gegout for her advice and Rod Thornton for helping me get to grips with the ins and outs of military parlance. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for their everlasting support. A special thank you goes to Kenny Poucher for his patience and love. 3 List of Contents Chapter one: Introduction 9 The emergence of the ESDP and its academic scholarship 10 The state of the ESDP debate 14 Research question and original contribution of the thesis 15 Aims and objectives 17 Methodology, terminology and the analytical approach 17 Conceptualising conflict 18 Conceptualising conflict management 23 The case study method: strengths and weaknesses 28 Case selection 29 Selected timeframe 34 Structured focused comparison: strengths and weaknesses 36 Primary and secondary data: problems and solutions 38 Thesis structure 45 Chapter two: Defining and evaluating success 47 Discussing success 49 Internal success 56 Internal goal attainment 56 Internal appropriateness 58 External success 60 External goal attainment 60 External appropriateness 62 Evaluating success 69 Methodological challenges and solutions to evaluating success 70 Conclusion and key findings 75 Chapter three: Evaluating internal success 76 Operation Concordia in Macedonia 77 Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo 86 Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina 93 EUFOR DR CONGO 102 4 EUFOR CHAD/CAR 107 Conclusion and key findings 118 Chapter four: Evaluating the external success 121 Operation Concordia in Macedonia 125 Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina 134 Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo 140 Operation EUFOR DR Congo 149 EUFOR Chad/CAR 155 Conclusion and key findings 160 Chapter five: A theoretical discussion of the conditions for success 164 Levels of analysis 166 Structure and agency 169 Internal conditions for success 171 External conditions for success 179 The domestic level 181 The regional level 186 The international level 189 Analytical considerations 192 Conclusion and key findings 193 Chapter six: Empirical assessment of internal conditions for success 196 Operation Concordia in Macedonia 197 Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo 204 Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina 210 EUFOR DR Congo 213 EUFOR Chad/CAR 219 Conclusion and key findings 224 Chapter seven: Empirical assessment of external conditions for success229 The external context of Operations Concordia and Althea 231 The domestic level 231 The regional level 238 5 The international level 241 The external context of Operation Artemis and EUFOR DR Congo 248 The domestic level 248 The regional level 253 The international level 255 The external context of Operation EUFOR Chad/CAR 259 The domestic and regional level 259 The international level 265 Conclusion and key findings 268 Chapter eight: Conclusion 272 Defining success 272 Evaluating success 275 Explaining success 277 Predicting success 280 Conclusion: Conditions for success – important to whom and for what? 281 Bibliography 284 Appendix 1: Institutional structures of the ESDP 304 Appendix 2: Map of the Western Balkans 305 Appendix 3: Map of the Democratic Republic of Congo 306 Appendix 4: Maps of Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic 307 6 List of abbreviations AMIS African Union Mission to Sudan AU African Union BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina CAR Central African Republic CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CNDP Congrés National Pour la Defénse du People DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EC European Community EPC European Political Cooperation ESDP European Security and Defence Policy ESS European Security Strategy EU European Union EUMS European Union Military Staff EUSR European Union Special Representative FADRC Armed Forces of the DRC FCO Full Operating Capability FDLR Forces Démocratiques de Liberation du Rwanda FNI Front Nationaliste et Intégrationniste FRPI Front de Résistance Patriotique d’Ituri GFAP General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH HoM Heads of Missions HQ Headquarters HR High Representative ICG International Crisis Group ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross ICTY International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia IDP Internally Displaced Person IFOR Implementation Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina IOC Initial Operating Capability LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MINURCAT United Nations Mission in Central African Republic and Chad MONUC United Nations Organisation Mission in DRC 7 NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NLA National Liberation Army OHR Office of the High Representative OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe PARECO Coalition des Patriots Résistants Congolais PIC Peace Implementation Council PIWC Person Indicted for War Crimes PRIO International Peace Research Institute Oslo RCD Congolese armed forces RFC Rally of Forces for Change SAA Stabilisation and Association Agreement SAP Stabilisation and Association Process SASE Safe and Secure Environment SCR Senior Civilian Representative SFOR Stabilisation Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina SG Secretary-General SHAPE Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe SPLA Sudan’s People’s Liberation Army UFDD Union of Forces for Democracy and Development UFDD/F Union of Forces for Democracy and Development-Fundamental UN United Nations UNPREDEP United Nations Preventative Deployment Force in Macedonia UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution UNSG United Nations Secretary-General UPC Union of Congolese Patriots UPDF Uganda People’s Defence Forces 8 Chapter one: Introduction The European Union launched its first ever military conflict management operation in 2003. Since then the Union’s endeavors in military conflict management have developed rapidly both in terms of the number and nature of its operations, tasks and capabilities. From 2003 to 2009, the EU launched five military conflict management operations within the framework of its European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). These operations were intended to help facilitate the management of conflicts in Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the tri-border area between Sudan, Chad and the Central African Republic. This thesis is about these operations. It examines and explains the level and nature of their success. The purpose of this undertaking is to analyse the necessary conditions for success in ESDP military conflict management operations. In this way, the thesis seeks to add a new dimension to the current debate on the EU’s emerging role as a military conflict manager in the international security arena. Military conflict management is a contentious issue. There are adamant arguments against it, just as there are strong and convincing arguments in its favour. Whether to intervene militarily to manage violent conflict is much debated in the scholarly literature (Bellamy, 2006; Kuperman, 2001; Mills and Brunner, 2003; Ramsey, 2002; Walzer, 2003). Although this is a crucial question, it is not the purpose of this venture. The focus of this thesis is on the undertaking of ESDP military conflict management operations. It evaluates the operations and explores the conditions under which they have been successful (or not). As such, the analysis is limited to the period from the launch of each 9 operation to its formal completion. The contentious nature of the subject matter, however, makes a sound theoretical framework for the systematic evaluation of success in this type of operation all the more important. The human
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