Great Decisions [And] Great Decisions Activity Book

Home , Greater Croatia, James Chace, Lake Karachay, Yugo (manga)

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AUTHOR Hoepli, Nancy L., Ed. TITLE Great Decisions [and] Great Decisions Activity Book. 1994 Edition. INSTITUTION Foreign Policy Association, New York, N.Y. REPORT NO ISBN-0-87124-155-2; ISBN-0-87124-156-0; ISSN-072-727X PUB DATE 94 NOTE 145p. AVAILABLE FROM Foreign Policy Association, c/o CUP Services, P.O. Box 6525, Ithaca, NY 14851; 800-477-5836 ($11). PUB TYPE Guides Classroom Use Instructional Materials (For Learner)(051) Guides Classroom Use Teaching Guides (For Teacher) (052)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC06 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS African History; *Developing Nations; Environment; Foreign Countries; *Foreign Policy; *Global Education; *International Relations; International Trade; Multicultural Education; Secondary Education; Social Studies; United States History; *World Affairs; World History

ABSTRACT This book discusses foreign policy issues and provides background information on current topics. This edition examines the following major issues:(1) "Conflict in Former Yugoslavia: Quest for Solutions" (Susan L. Woodward);(2) "South Africa: Forging a Democratic Union" (Jean Herskovits); (3) "Environmental Crisis in Former Soviet Bloc: Whose Problem? Who Pays?" (William Sweet);(4) "Trade with the Pacific Rim: Pressure or Cooperation?" (Jinny St. Goar);(5) "Defense: Redefining U.S. Needs and Priorities" (David C. Morrison);(6) "Argentina, Brazil, Chile: Democracy and Market Economics" (Jacqueline Mazza);(7) "Islam and Politics: Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia" (Lawrence G. Potter); and (8) "New World Disorder? U.S. in Search of a Role" (James Chace). The activity book contains activities on each subject and six handout master sheets pertaining to the world area under study. (EH)

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of Educational Research and Improvement EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) 19 This document has been reproduced as received from the person or organization originating it. Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality.

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1611111. An Invitation

THE FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION, which publishes the GREAT DECISIONS briefing book and sponsors the nationwide Great Decisions discussion program, invites you to become a National Associate of the Foreign Policy Association. Your participation will enable FPA, an independent, nonpartisan educational organization, to carry out its mission, namely, to help Americans gain a better understanding of U.S. foreign policy and to stimulate constructive and informed citizen participation in world affairs.

To become a National Associate, please use the envelope that is bOnd into this book. Associates will receive a membership card, FPA's most recent Headline Series ("Environmental Scarcity and Global Security") and the catalogue of publications. Members' names will be listed in next year's briefing book.

Great Decisions Discussion Groups

Enhance your knowledge of international events and meet others who share your interest in foreign policy. Join a GREAT DECISIONS discussion group in your community. Sponsors include the League of Women Voters, UNA-USA chapters, "Y's," World Affairs Councils, churches and synagogues, and libraries. Or start your own discussion group. To start your own group:

1. Assemble a group of 8-12 people. Recruit your friends or find members in neighborhood or civic groups, the library, church or synagogue. Put a notice in the local newspaper.

2. Purchase a copy of GREAT DECISIONS for each participant. Inquire about the special program in Georgia.

3. Determine a meeting schedule. Many groups meet weekly or biweekly after the book's publication in January. Other groups prefer a fall meeting schedule or a monthly schedule throughout the year. 4. Select the leadership for the group. Some groups prefer to have the same person lead all eight sessions, while others share responsibilities among group members.

5. Designate one group member to collect opinion ballots and forward them to the Foreign Policy Association. Your opinions will be known by the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense and Members of Congress.

Do you have questions about starting, joining, leading or participating in a Great Decisions group? Write or call the Community and College Programs Department at (800) 628-5754.

3 CONTENTS

I. Conflict in Former Yugoslavia: Quest for Solutions by Susan L. Woodward 3

2. South Africa: Forging a Democratic Union by Jean Herskovits 17

3. Environmental Crisis in Former Soviet Bloc: Whose Problem? Who Pays? by William Sweet 27

4. Trade with the Pacific Rim: Pressure or Cooperation? by Jinny St. Goar 39

5. Defense: Redefining U.S. Needs and Priorities by David C. Morrison 49

6. Argentina, Brazil, Chile: Democracy and Market Economics by Jacqueline Mazza 61

7. Islam and Politics: Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia by Lawrence G. Potter 71

8. New World Disorder? U.S. in Search of a Role by James Chace 83 Opinion Ballots 15-16, 37-38, 59-60, 81-82

Printed by Ripon Community Printers, Ripon, Wisconsin How to get more out of GREAT DECISIONS 91 Cover design: Ed Bohon Cover photo of Bosnian soldier: AP/Wide World Photos Information sources and key organizations 92

©COPYRIGHT 1994 BY FOREIGN POLICY Opinion ballots: 1993 results 93 ASSOCIATION, INC., 729 SEVENTH AVE- NUE, NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10019. ALL Index to GREAT DECISIONS RIGHTS RESERVED. RESEARCHED AS OF NOVEMBER 27, 1993. THE AUTHORS ARE topics (1983-93) 95 RESPONSIBLE FOR FACTUAL ACCURACY AND FOR THE VIEWS EXPRESSED. FPA ITSELF TAKES NO POSITION ON ISSUES OF U.S. FOREIGN POLICY. PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. LIBRARY No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, OF CONGRESS CARD NUMBER: 58-59828. or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

4 INTRODUCTION GREAT DECISIONS N 1993, the Foreign Policy Association celebrated its 75th birthday. Itsfounders Editorial were internationalists. They understood the challenge and the opportunity Advisory 11presented to Americans by our victory in World War I. Unfortunately in the 1920s the country failed to rise to that challenge. We refused to join the League of Committee Nations, which President Woodrow Wilson had designed and, by turning inward. defaulted on the leadership role that had been thrust upon us. Barely a decade later, CHAIRMAN we paid an awful price for our neglect. Richard H. Ullman Seventy years later, having won the cold war, Americans face a similar Professor of International Affairs, challenge. Once again, domestic concerns, some of them long neglected, cry for The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs attention, and many believe they should be given primacy. Yet the world' of the Princeton University 1990s is very different from that of the 1920s. To illustrate, only 3% of our jobs then were export-driven. Now, that figure has increased almost sixfold to 17%. Earl W. Foell Television, unknown in the 1920s, has become ubiquitous. Arguably, television got Former Editor in Chief us into Somalia and will get us out, obscuring what should have beenthe true policy World Monitor and The Christian debate about our goals there and what might have been done to achieve them. Science Monitor The real question, now as in the Christine R. Lucas 1920s, is whether we can turn inward Great Decisions Coordinator, Ohio Program Officer, without imperiling America's long-term Cleveland Council on World Affairs interests in the world. Educated Ponchitta A. Pierce Americans can help our leaders answer Television Host and Producer that question. The national debate in the FPA Director fall of 1993 over the North American Sanford J. Ungar Free Trade Agreement demonstrated Dean, School of Communication, once again the role of informed opinion. The American University Among the lessons to be learned Nancy L. Hoepli from President Clinton's Nafta victory FPA Editor in Chief are the importance of Presidential Ex officio leadership, particularly in areas in FPA PRESIDENT John Temple Swing which domestic interests clash with presents the 1993 National Opinion Ballot Report to Deputy Secretary of State international interests, and the impor- FOREIGN Clifton Wharton tance of informed citizens who under- POLICY stand the issues and are willing to ASSOCIATION express their views to their elected representatives. 1918 For 40 years, participants in the Foreign Policy Association's Great Decisions program have been studying and discussing American foreign. policy andexpressing their opinions. This year you have the opportunity to make your voice heard on Paul Ford Chairman of the Board of Directors eight major issues that will be facing the country during 1994. Bound into this book you will find a set of opinion ballots, with a duplicate set for couples who maybe John Temple Swing sharing the book. All you need do is fill out the ballots and mail them to us before President June 30, 1994, in order to be sure that your views can be tabulated in time for presentation to the President, the Secretaries of State and Defense, the national security adviser, congressional leaders and the media. EDITOR IN CHIEF In October 1993, I had the honor to present the National Opinion Ballot Report Nancy L. Hoepli to Deputy Secretary of State Clifton Wharton. In his acknowledging letter, he wrote: SENIOR EDITORS "Special thanks for the survey results. They will be very useful to me. The Great Ann R. Monjo K.M. Rohan Decisions program is such vital work. I only wish it could be replicated a hundred- fold...." A summary of the results of the 1993 National Opinion Ballot Report EDITORIAL INTERN Abby Safirstein appears on pages 93 and 94. Copies of the report are available freefrom FPA. COPY EDITOR The 1994 Great Decisions program offers you the opportunity to take part in the James I. Bauer national foreign policy debate and to take a stand on the issues of importance to us all. I hope you will seize the opportunity. DESIGN John Temple Swing K.M. Rohan President Foreign Policy Association FORMER YUGOSLAVIA of its basic values? The other camp protests that this requires the U.S. to be a world policeman, sending soldiers to die in other peoples' battles. The U.S. cannot Conflict in foer do everything. It must choose to intervene only in cases that directly affect its vital national interests. Yugoslavia:quest Secretary of State Warren Christopher's statements have reflected both positions. Announcing a new Ad- for solutions ministration policy in February 1993, he sought to make Bosnia "a test case of America's ability to nurture democracy The conflict in Yugoslavia has increased global insecurityin the post-cold-war world." Less than a and raises questions about the leadership role of the U.S. month later, as a result of European resistance to his proposals for air strikes and in the post-cold-war world. the apparent lack of enthusiasm on the by Susan L. Woodward part of the American public, he called Bosnia "the intractable 'problem from hell' that no one can be expected to solve...less...amoraltragedy...and more...a tribal feud that no outsider could hope to settle." The quest for solutions to the Yugo- slav conflict has been trapped between these positions since late 1990 when warnings of violent disintegration became urgent. Humanitarian assistance has not achieved its goal of delivering relief to civilians, and it has not prevented massive refugee flows. The wars and cleansing of towns and villages to create pure ethnic areas continue in the former Yugoslav republics of Bosnia-Herze- govina and Croatia. War threatens to spread to other republics and to destabilize an entire region of Europe for decades. TWO WOMEN AND A BABY,who fled Sarajevo, found refuge in Split, Croatia. Croatia and The post-cold-war world Slovenia subsequently closed their borders to refugees. The failure of European powers and the U.S. to formulate a policy toward the NLY WEEKS AFTER assuming office American foreign policy debate onconflict, let alone prevent or end the as President of the U.S., WilliamBosnia-Herzegovina has swung betweenwars, has demonstrated serious deficien- Jefferson Clinton declared thethese two views. One camp argues that.cies in the European security regime and war in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Western the U.S. has a moral obligation to stopthe North Atlantic Treaty Organization attempts to bring peace to the former Yu- the killing of innocent civilians, the use (NATO) and led to quarrels and strains goslavia "the most frustrating and com-of force to change state borders, and the among Western powers. Even the United plex foreign policy issue in the world to- violation of fundamental human rights.Nations is facing a major crisis because day." Many observers share that senti-They watch with horror the daily televi- the U.S. and Europe are attempting to ment. Some try to reduce the complexitysion pictures or newspaper reports of theavoid the security issues by deploying to a black-and-white struggle of goodblatant violation of the Geneva conven- humanitarian missions and peacekeeping and evil, democrats against Communists,tions on war, mass rapes of women, inhu- troops instead, and then balking at the fi- Croats or Muslims against Serbs, victims mane detention camps, bombardment ofnancial costs. and aggressors. Others choose distance tocities, mortars lobbed into children's The Yugoslav conflict has defied solu- avoid the wars' atrocities by distinguish-playgrounds andbreadlinesof old tion in part because of its complexity once ing themselves from those Balkan peoplepeople, whole villages burned to thethe multinational country broke apart on with "ancient ethnic hatreds": they will ground, and the expulsion of people from fight no matter what we do, so leavetheir homes on the basis of ethnicity. If SUSAN L WOODWARDis a visiting fellow at them alone until they exhaust themselveswe have knowledge of such behavior and The Brookings Institution. A former national fellow at the Hoover Institution, she has taught from hatred and fighting and are readydo nothing, are we not also complicit? Isat Yale,Williams, Mt. Holyoke and again for peace. our own world safe if we allow defianceNorthwestern. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 6 OPIC FORMER YUGOSLAVIA reacted with moral outrage at the Bush Administration's unwillingness to defend AUSTRIA Muslim victims against Bosnian Serb aggression, and promised support for HUNGARY Muslims and the Bosnian government. LOVENIAr--/ But in 1993 the Clinton Administration L j Ijana ,1 Zagreb ROMANIA wavered when Europeans challenged it to Zrenjanin CROATIA use ground troops, for this required it to :=. VOJVODA address the question of U.S. national ti interests. 0 Belgrade Great-Power quarrels :SNIA AND SERBIA EGOVINA , Despite plenty of warning, Europe and the U.S. failed to forestall war. Quarrels among the NATO allies prevented them /BULGARIA from taking early military action to stop NTENEGRO ::.,-' Pftstina the war in Croatia or to give peace nego- ITALY soy9=------0 tiators any credible threat with warring Po oriT Skopje SF parties. The quarrels continued over the MACEDON1 aims of a possible military intervention, the risks of sending troops where soldiers might be killed, who would pay, and who would have command and control. A UN LBAN1 Security Council resolution creating six GREECE safe havens in Bosnia-Herzegovina was not implemented. Proposals for extensive diplomatic but nonmilitary intervention the basis of national self-determination and Croatian independence, placed theseemed to require too much rethinking. for Slovenia and Croatia. Yugoslavia is highest priority on containing the war toWhereas the crisis of NATO came from located at a crossroads of civilizations,preventitfrom spreading beyondinaction, the crisis of the UN comes from cultures, and spheres of economic andYugoslav borders. the operational inadequacies of some geopolitical interest, punctuated by dis- The Bush Administration intermit-26,000 troops actually sent on peace- putes over territory. Its population is com- tently intervened in the Yugoslav conflictkeeping and humanitarian missions in posed of multiple ethnic and religious when it seemed necessary to preserveentirely different circumstances than groups and social statuses. Finding a so-NATO or U.S. leadership in Europe, butthosefor which peacekeeping was lution has also been complicated by theit maintained the position, first taken indesigned. transition in the international order. Since1989, that the U.S. had no national secu- The failure to act in the Yugoslav the end of the contest between a "freerity interest in Yugoslavia. Former Secre- case, many now argue, has increased glo- world" and Communist states, Westerntary of Defense Dick Cheney recently re-bal insecurity, raising questions about powers are unsure about which countries iterated the views of President Georgewhat values and rules will be enforced and what values lie within their nationalBush and his chief military officer, Gen-and who will take a leadership role in ini- interest and what constitutes a threat toeral Colin Powell: "No one could ever tiating new forms of cooperation or inter- their security. The U.S. has yet to find itstell us what the mission should be." vention to prevent war in a post-cold-war role in the transition. In 1992 presidential candidate Clinton order. During the cold war, the independence of socialist Yugoslavia from Mos- cow and its neutrality in the Balkans were thought to be critical to U.S. national security and to NATO strategy. Creation to breakup Military aid and financial guarantees of THE CREATION OF Yugoslavia in 1918 dictatorship in the face of world depres- Yugoslavia's territorial integrity fol- after World War I was the result ofsion and constitutional quarrels, and the lowed its break with the Soviet Union innationalist struggles against the empiresreturn to democracy in 1935 came in the 1948 and continued until 1989, whenof Austria, Hungary and Turkey duringshadow of German economic penetra- East-West reconciliation left it without athe 19th century. The Great Powers sit-tion. In 1941 a German-led invasion strategic role. ting at Versailles determined its composi-splintered Yugoslavia among occupying The disintegration of Yugoslavia in tion and constitution. Although they usedarmies from Germany, Italy, Hungary 1991 momentarily raised the specter ofPresident Woodrow Wilson's principleand Bulgaria, and multiple armies of na- 1914, that a conflict in the Balkans mightof national self-determination to justifytional resistance. once again ignite a world war by drawingthe end of empires, they formed Yugosla- Yugoslavia was not a nation-state but in neighbors and then major powers. Eu-viaasamultinationalstate.Thea country composed of six "constituent ropeans, who had recognized Slovenecountry's liberal democracy gave way tonations"Slovenes, Croats, Serbs, Mon- 4 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 FO E3 YUGOSLAVIA

tenegrins, Macedonians, and Muslims (in emphasized voting rights to protect mi-result of efforts to democratize a socialist the political, not religious, sense). Peoplenorities instead of majoritarian, competi-economy under extremely difficult inter- belonging to nations which had states tive democracy. national conditions. Yugoslavia had ex- elsewhere, called nationalities, had cul- In terms of how people saw them-perienced a decade of austerity and re- tural rights as minorities (the largest such selves, ethnicity was less important than forms aimed at paying its foreign debt by groups were ethnic Albanians and Hun- occupation and urban or rural residencereorienting the economy to exports and garians, but there were many others such and culture. Residents of cosmopolitanWestern markets, and reversing the pro- as Jews, Bulgarians, Turks, Romanianscities had different prospects than those gressive weakening of the government's and Italians). Individuals who belongedof heartland farming communities orcapacity to manage the economy due to to ethnic minorities without a nationalpoorer mining and timbering towns in thedecentralization. Liberalization and anti- status (such as the seminomadic Romanyinterior. Villagers had deep cultural andinflationary policy prescribed by the In- and Vlachs) did not have such rights.psychological attachments to the land,ternational Monetary Fund (IMF) de- Many people lived in compact ethnic orand households survived periods of se-manded cuts in federal expenditures and national communities and identified with vere inflation and unemployment by rely-higher taxes. a territory, but centuries of war, forced or ing on their own production of food, on As early as 1985, 1 million people, invited resettlements, economic migra- neighbors or on rural relatives. There wasincluding 70% of youths under age 27, tion and rapid urbanization after 1945great economic variety and inequalityout of a work force of 7 million, were of- meant that cities, most towns, the plainsamong the regions. For defense againstficially unemployed. Economic austerity and former imperial borderlands wereexternal invasion, national policy calledcombined with hyperinflation resulted in ethnically mixed. Intermarriage wasfor substantial military industries and lo- declining living standards for 80% of the common, and people had relatives or sec- cal stockpiling of arms. A tradition of lo- population. Growing insecurity led to ond homes in other republics. There was cal militia and frontier defense created aprotest actions, religious revival, scape- anunusualrichnessofcultures:gun-owning culture in the interior. This goating of ethnic groups or women, and a Habsburg, Venetian and Ottoman lega-was reinforced after World War II by adecline in civility. cies; Roman Catholic, Greek Orthodox,military doctrine that called for the entire Politicians quarreled with ever more Muslim, Jewish and Protestant religions;population to be prepared to take armsintransigence over taxes, public expendi- overall Slavic dominance mixed with in-against invaders. tures, access to foreign exchange, the digenous and non-Slav traditions. Some powers of legislatures and executives, areas of the country, such as the republic Collapse of Yugoslavia and whether or how to reform the federal of Bosnia-Herzegovina, took pride inThe collapse of Yugoslavia did not hap-government. Particularly contentious was their multicultural pluralism and toler-pen overnight, although its acceleratingthe IMF demand for an independent cen- ance in living together in mixed commu-speed made actions to stop it ever moretral bank that would recentralize mon- nities for centuries. difficult. It was a long process of eco-etary policy and replace consensual vot- Federal vs. states' rights nomic and political disintegration as aing with majority decision. These crystal- To accommodate the rights of its six nations to self-determination, Yugoslavia's AUSTRIA constitution after 1945 was federal. Poli- tics revolved around the tug and pull be- HUNGARY tween states' rights and the powers of the LOVENIA federal government. The country was I:Jana* * Zagreb committed to rights of national equality CROATIA and individual economic security. But when hard times strained government budgets, richer areas objected to the federally mandated equal standard for wages, welfare programs, minority cultural rights, and quotas in public employment, and to federal taxes for assistance to poorer communities, the defense bud- EGRO get and military industries. Their demand ITALY for less government regulation, local self- on rule and homogeneous communities was * Skopje simultaneously antifederal. The govern- FORMER YUGOS ment was far more decentralized than in REP. OF MACED the U.S., but it shared the same commitment to extensive local control over schools, police and welfare. Because the LBANI country was composed of minorities (no national, regional or occupational group formed a numerical majority), the system

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 5 8 TOPIC FORMER YUGOSLAVIA 1 lized in a debate between antifederalists, in the defense budget, and deadlocks inSlovenia and Croatia to pursue national who wanted to keep primary economic federal decisionmaking. independence as a part of their own as- power in the republics and even extend sertion of national power and expanding the latter's legislative and judicial powers Slovenia 'dissociatesdi i ' spheres of interest after the cold war. The to near-full sovereignty, and liberals,In September 1989, the Slovene govern- announcement by Serbian President who believed that a market economy hadment declared its intention to "dissoci- Slobodon Milosevic that if they seceded, not only to strengthen federal economicate" from Yugoslavia. The followinghe would insist that the republican bor- capacity but -also to break down the po- January its Communist party withdrewders be "rectified" went unheeded. He litical barriers to capital and labor mobil-from the Yugoslav Communist party, thesaid a change conforming to the pattern ity within the country imposed by the re- only legal political party, which removed of Serb settlements would give Serbs the publics. the last obstacle to multiparty elections. right also to form a national state. The The declared goal of the Yugoslav Elections were held in the republics inU.S. continued to warn him against the federal government by 1988-89 was fullspring 1990, and they became vehicles violation of human rights in Serbia's Westernization and an end to the socialistfor nationalists in each republic to pushprovince of Kosovo, where ethnic Alba- system. through programs that replaced the con-nians declared the goal of independence. stitutional protections for national equal- The decision of Slovenia to hold a ref- Democracy and war ity with majority exclusivism. Consensuserendum on independence in December War began with democratization. Bywas replaced by confrontation. Freedom1990 and to veto federal elections that 1987-88, politicians in the republics ofof speech permitted intolerance. Smallmighthave shown supportfor Slovenia and Serbia began openly to seekincidents and rumor fed paranoia among Markovic's reforms dealt the latter a se- popular support on the basis of national-people now placed in a minority positionvere blow. In January 1991 the new fed- ism. They asserted their republics' rightby the new constitutions. The Commu-eral presidency began to mediate the con- to national self-determination, to eco-nist system of public security collapsed;stitutional deadlock among republican nomic resources and to political control.many police formed paramilitary gangsleaders and an end to the civil violence in Whereas the Slovene goal was anti- affiliated with political parties or joinedCroatia between the Croatian govern- federalist, claiming states' rights againstcriminal networks. Ethnic minorities ment and Serbian militants in the krajina federal powers, the Serbian goal waswere treated as untrustworthy or disloyal, region of Croatia. In this area, Serbs, rep- antiprovincial: it reclaimed states' rights and some began to demand a restorationresenting less than one third their total against the powers granted by the 1974of rights or territorial autonomy in reac- number in Croatia but territorially con- constitution to its provinces of Vojvodination to government police action. centrated, had reacted with force against and the rebellious Kosovo. The latter had , discrimination. President Franjo demanded independence on the basis of Economic shock therapy Tudjman had decided to replace all non- nationality: 87% of the population wereAs the country was disintegrating politi- Croats in the police and security forces Albanians. Both leaders also used nation-cally, Western diplomats and bankers fo-because he considered them unreliable. alism to undercut or co-opt anti-Commu-cused on the federal government's eco-Members of the same political party as nist intellectuals and youths who werenomic reform. They were enthusiastic Bosnian Serbs, the Serbs in krajina began using nationalism to attack Communistover its recognition that foreign invest-to oppose Croatian plans for indepen- rule as a whole, especially from the right. ment and foreign-debt repayment re-dence, announced July 1990, and held a At the same time, the international or- quired abandoning socialist propertyreferendum demanding territorial au- der defining Yugoslav security wasrights and welfare guarantees. They tonomy. changing. Between 1985 and 1989, newviewed the "shock therapy" program of The federal presidency moved to dis- forms of East-West cooperation and fur-1989 as the only way to end hyper-arm all new security and paramilitary ther economic integration began to breakinflation and the goal of rapid currencyforces, ensure civilian authority over the down the hostile military and trade blocs.convertibility as the best solution to thefederal army, and end the creation of in- The two most western, antifederalist re- persistent trade deficit. Yugoslav primedependentarmiesinSlovenia and publics, Slovenia and Croatia, used the minister Ante Markovic had inspiredCroatia. When the army began troop opening to increase ties with Central Eu- hope among liberals throughout themovements in January, the U.S. warned rope, with which they shared cultural country that the economic crisis wouldthat it opposed any attempt to hold the identity as Roman Catholics and part ofsoon be over. But post-cold-war Euro-country together by force. Yet in Febru- the former Habsburg civilization. Thepean politics intervened. ary, Slovenia and Croatia declared all rapprochement with Europe threatened to When the wall dividing Europe camefederal laws invalid on their territory. isolate areas in Yugoslavia which weredown, in place of incorporation into Eu-One faction of the army, after failing in labeled Balkan, home of Eastern Ortho-rope, Yugoslavia was further excludedMarch to win a vote in the federal presi- dox and Muslim populations of thebecause it had not been part of eitherdency for emergency rule, allied itself former Ottoman sphere. These areas,bloc. Western governments began to dis-with Milosevic. such as Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina,tinguish between central and eastern Eu- Only two months before Slovenia and were geographically farther from Europerope, and this threatened to split theCroatia finally declared full indepen- and were facing more severe economiccountry down the middle. Individualdence, June 25, 1991, the European decline. The army meanwhile was in-states such as Austria, Hungary and Ger-Community (EC) began a series of "fact- creasingly concerned about defense pre-many were beginning to give both moral finding" and "good offices" missions. Its paredness, rising social discontent, cutsand clandestine military support topolicy was to offer economic aid to the

6 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 FO IM YRSGOSaAVOA Yugoslvian Civil War Time Line 1989 1992(continued) Sept. 27 Slovenia declares intent to "dissociate" from Yugoslavia. May 30 UN imposes economic and political sanctions on Yugoslavia in order to end fighting in Bosnia-Herzegovina. 1990 July 2 Croats living in Bosnia declare an independent state comprising Jan. 22Congress rescinds Communist party's monopoly on political nearly a third of Bosnian territory. power, setting stage for multiparty elections, held April- Aug. December. 26-27 London Conference on the Former Yugoslavia held. Establishes Dec. 23Slovenes vote to secede from Yugoslavia should plans for a the standing International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia confederation fail. (ICFY), which creates the Statement of Principles, a set of provisions on which a peace plan can be based. 1991 Sept. 22 UN withdraws Yugoslav seat, occupied by the Belgrade June 25Slovenia and Croatia declare independence from Yugoslavia; government. federal parliament sends in troops to prevent secessions. Oct. 9 UN imposes a "no-fly zone" over Bosnia, prohibits all military July 7 Brioni Accord, which establishes cease-fire in Slovenia, finalized aircraft flights. by EC. 1993 Sept. EC establishes Conference on Yugoslavia, a peace conference to negotiate a political settlement. UN imposes arms embargo on Jan. 30All parties agree to principles in Vance-Owen plan, which calls entire country on 25th. for UN-monitored cease-fire; the establishment of a central government with 3 Muslims, 3 Croats and 3 Serbs; and the 1992 creation of 10 cantons with proportionate ethnic representation in the government. Feb. 21UN passes resolution to send 14,400 peacekeepers to Croatia. Feb. 22 UN mandates an International War Crimes Tribunal. March 1Bosnians vote for independence; Bosnian Serbs threaten to secede April 7 "The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" admitted to UN. if referendum passed. May 2 Karadzic is last to sign Vance-Owen peace plan. He later insists April 4 1,200 UN peacekeepers arrive in Croatia; the next day Serbs that it is subject to ratification by a Serbian assembly, which begin shelling Sarajevo. ultimately rejects it. April 7 U.S. and EC recognize Bosnian independence; the U.S. Aug. 28 Muslim-led Bosnian parliament rejects the Owen-Stoltenberg recognizes Croatia and Slovenia. (EC did so April 6.) plan; the Clinton Administration assures the UN that it would April 27 Serbia and Montenegro announce that they alone constitute a new provide half of the 50,000 new troops needed to enforce any Yugoslavia. peace plan.

federal government on the condition thesecurity threat in Bosnia-Herzegovina,against disintegration and in favor of country remained together and stayed theand therefore they should only devotecross-border relations, a constitutional course on radical economic reform. humanitarian aid to what they claimedcompromise and further democratization. EC Europeanists had seized on thewas, after all, a "civil war." To avoid the The EC pronounced the army's actions opportunity to create a common foreign real questions of Yugoslavia's place inillegitimate and aggressive, and declared and security policy as they moved towardthe new Europe, the security vacuum leftthe borders of the republics legitimate financial integration at Maastricht, Neth-in the East and the Balkans, and the val-international borders that could not be erlands, in December 1991. Togetherues which Europe was willing to defend, changed by force. It recognized the right with the brand new crisis-managementthey were redefining the border of Eu- of Slovenia and Croatia to national self- institutions of the 51-member Confer-rope in cultural terms, between economi-determination, and ignored the violent ence on Security and Cooperation in Eu- cally compatible, "civilized" states and consequences of this principle as a basis rope (CSCE), as Dutch foreign ministerpolitically unstable "barbarians" inclined for sovereignty in a multinational state and Hans van den Broek proclaimed in June, to use military force. ethnically mixed society. It made no ar- this was to be "Europe's hour." Instead, rangements to defend its decision on bor- national disputes arose immediately EC mediation ders against those who disagreed. among the 12 EC members over whetherOnly when the Yugoslav army moved to This precipitous end to internal efforts to interpose troops to stop the fighting indefend the state against Slovene takeover at negotiating theconflict deprived Croatia or to internationalize the conflictof its international borders and customsYugoslavia's citizens of the time needed by recognizing Croatia and defining Serbposts did the EC offer to "facilitate politi-to develop alternatives or to hold new opposition as aggression against the state. cal dialogue." Until that time Westernelections. The dismemberment of the Prevented from military action by U.S.policy had focused on federal economicYugoslav state provided the opening that opposition to NATO involvement and al-reform to repay debt and on the protec- Serbia and others who were ready to fight ternatives proposed by France, the ECtion of human rights when whole repub-for different borders needed, and it forced never achieved a common policy, exceptlics were demanding full sovereignty orall those in the middle to alter their posi- momentarily to concede to Germany on regions, self-rule. The effect of the ECtions overnight and to take sides between recognitionand not before Britain andmediation was to accelerate the pace ofrepublican independence and a truncated France had sought a substitute for EC ac-disintegration. EC negotiations, whichYugoslavia. tion in the UN. began June 29, 1991, effectively ended The EC demand for a three-month Continuing conflict within the Euro- the Yugoslav state. moratorium on Slovene and Croatian in- Atlantic alliance and a priority of na- With the Brioni Accord of July 7 es-dependence in exchange for the army's tional interests over multilateral goalstablishing a cease-fire in Slovenia, theretreattobarracksand then from among the 12 led EC governments to re-EC shifted its attention to borders. ItSlovenia (and the Austrian border) into 'treat, demoralized at their diplomatic fail-marginalized the federal government andCroatia only encouraged armed mobiliza- ure but also defensive that there was nodisregardedinternalforces workingtion. By August-September, local con- 10 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 7 1OPIC FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

flicts in ethnically mixed areas, fanned byingBosnia-Herzegovinasplit,with and the Serbs to their right of self-deter- right-wing paramilitary gangs of CroatsBosnian Croats and Muslims opting formination to choose their state. and Serbs, had drawn Croatian govern-independence and Bosnian Serbs declar- Croatia lacks control of almost one ment forces and insurgent Serbs aided by ing their intention to remain within Yu- third of its territory recognized interna- army units into full-scale war. Macedonia goslavia. Following an EC-ordered refer- tionally, and Serbs refuse to disarm be- declared independence. Kosovo renewedendum on Bosnian independence oncause of constant threats from Croatian its declaration. Factions in the army com-March 1, 1992, the war to define the bor- leaders. Croatian President Tudjman has mitted to Yugoslavia lost, and othersders of new states and gain internationalbuilt an impressive army to 6O3front the made plans to create a rump Yugoslavia.recognition spread to Bosnia-Serbs, occasionally orders offensives to And the three communal parties govern- Herzegovina. retake villages and land, and dares the UN to leave; Serb radicals hope to join a common state with Bosnian Serbs after the partition of Bosnia. Yugoslays' threecamps Bosnia-Herzegovina Of all those in the second camp, the gov- rr HE EC DECISION on borders dividedSerbs an internal matter of minorityernment of Bosnia-Herzegovina was 1 former Yugoslays into three camps.rights, many countries such as Britain, most in need of international support for The first was composed of all thoseFrance and the U.S. wanted to avoid aits territorial integrity. EC negotiator people who were irrelevant to negotia-precedent that could break up the SovietLord Carrington, the UN Secretary Gen- tions because they did not control armiesUnion or legitimize autonomy move-eral Boutros Boutros-Ghali and his en- or represent states officially. These werements in West European countries. voy, Cyrus Vance, and Bosnian President ordinary citizens, civic groups, antiwar As fighting in Croatia intensified, theAlija Izetbegovic had all warned that movements and political groups oppos-U.S. and Britain rejected proposals byGerman-led EC recognition of Croatia ing ethnic apartheid. In the second camp France and by a meeting of the Group ofprior to a political settlement for the were political leaders who claimed na-Seven leading economic powers to send whole country would lead to further war, tional authority within the republicanin forces. In September 1991, the EC set particularly in Bosnia-Herzegovina. borders that were declared legitimate.up a peace conferencethe Hague Con- Multiethnic Bosnia-Herzegovina was Their primary strategy was therefore toference on Yugoslaviato negotiate aofficially composed of three political look to foreign support and to expect thecomprehensive political settlement for acommunities (nations)Serbs (32%), international community to defend theconfederation of independent states. TheCroats (17%) and Muslims (43 %) sanctity of republican borders. In theUN Security Council voted an arms em-within a Bosnian identity. Yugoslavia third camp were politicians who disputed bargo and in October sent an envoy, had acted as the collective security guar- those borders because their territorialformer U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus antor for its territorial integrity, the equal claims to national self-determinationVance, to explore conditions for setting rights of its nations, its multiethnic cities, crossed those borders or were internal toup a peacekeeping operation. Germany,the quarter of its population which had them. Their strategy was to gain eventual however, favored unilateral recognition intermarried, and more than half its recognition of their state by military con- of Croatian sovereignty to international-population of 4.4 million living in mixed trol, exclusionary nationalism and physi- ize the conflict and thus declare the Serbcommunities, who have been made refu- cal expulsion to create ethnically domi-rebellion as external aggression. gees by campaigns to create ethnically nant territories that would affirm that After a five-month campaign, Ger-pure areas. The security of Bosnia- nation's right to the land in an eventualmany got its way on December 16, 1991.Herzegovina was unlikely without re- referendum. The recognition of Slovene and Croatiangional or international guarantees. As sovereignty nullified the EC's Hagueearly as January 1991, the presidents of Slovenia and Croatia Conference on Yugoslavia. Vance hadCroatia (Tudjman) and Serbia The second camp's strategy worked fornegotiated a cessation of hostilities in(Milosevic) had agreed topartition Slovenia. Influential foreign patrons,Croatia in December which depended onBosnia. Croatia claims Bosnian territo- such as Austria and Germany, togetheran eventual political settlement. As a re-ries historically (and the Croats in west- with successful propaganda to persuade sult, the Vance Plan for a UN peacekeep-ern Herzegovina are Tudjman's most world opinion that they were acting ining operation, adopted by the Securityloyal political base); Serbs claim land on self-defense to protect their endangeredCouncil in February 1992, only froze thethe basis of old settlements and private democracy, produced Brioni. But theirsstatus quo. Placed in an "inkblot" patternownership of 63% of Bosnian land, and was the easy case because, like theat sites of armed confrontation, 14,000are allied with autonomist Serbs in Czechs and Slovaks, Slovenia's manyUN soldiers were to oversee the disarm-Croatia. Both Croatia and Serbia con- conflicts with its neighbor Croatia did not ing of Serb militia and the restoration ofsider Bosnian territory strategically es- include the border. The Italian commu-control over police and government tosential to their independent states. At the nity in Istria, split in two by the indepen- local majorities in four UN protected ar- same time,allthree nations within dence, had not yet begun to organize. eas (UNPAs). Instead, both sides viewBosnia have separate political projects The Croatian case was more difficult.the UN as legitimating their claims to thefor self-determination. Although the Although the EC recognized its bordersterritorythe Croatian government toBosnian Muslim and Bosnian Croat par- and considered Croatia's relations withsovereignty within its republican borders, ties allied for independence in October GREAT DECISIONS 1994 8 11 FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

1991, and the army in April 1992 joined I the Serbs who had withdrawn to form a 2 separate republic within Bosnia, Muslims a and Croats now fight each other in terri- I tories contested in central Bosnia, while Croats and Serbs occasionallyally against Muslims. a Three plans Following the EC-required referendum I on March 1, 1992, in which 63% of Bosnians opted for independence (most Serbs boycotted), the EC began negotia- z tions among the three national parties. A Assuming that ethnic partition was most likely, it took as a talking point the proposal from Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic for ethnic cantonization. Before the three parties could move from agreement on basic principles, on March 18, 1992, to their disagreements over the maps, the negotiations on the Lisbon Plan were interrupted by recognition ofidentity was abandoned in May of 1993. propose their gradual lifting in exchange Bosnia-Herzegovina. This time the U.S. for territory in Bosnia. preempted in favor of immediate recog- Owen-Stoltenberg plan The fate of Bosnia-Herzegovina has nition, granted April 6 by the EC andA third peace plandrafted by Lordnot yet fully dispirited ethnic Albanians April 7 by the U.S., so that the U.S. couldOwen and Norwegian Foreign Ministerin Kosovo, who also appear to expect also recognize Croatia and Slovenia and Thorvald Stoltenberg in August 1993 international support for their opposition end its quarrel with the EC. accepted the military fait accompli ofto Serbian rule and for eventual indepen- three nationally exclusive ministates in adence. Vance-Owen peace plan confederation with each one's right to The horrors of the Bosnian wars led thesecede. The Bosnian government was The third camp EC and UN to join forces in London inunable to accept ethnic partition in whichThe other sizeable group made vulner- August 1992. They created a standingMuslim areas make no viable state and able by the breakup of multinational Yu- International Conference on the FormerBosnia-Herzegovina exists in name only. goslavia were the Serbs living outside of Yugoslavia to negotiate an overall peaceRefusing to sign this plan as it had previ-Serbia. The state created at Versailles in settlement, to end the war in Bosnia-ous ones, it now faces its own autono-1919 granted Serbia its war objective to Herzegovina, and to create conditions formists as well as exclusivist Muslimincorporate Serbs in one state only if it international enforcement. In contrast toradicalization. combined with Slovenes and Croats; in the EC's cantonization plan of March federal Yugoslavia, 40% lived in other 1992, the Vance-Owen peace plan of Economic sanctions republics. The fact that Croatia had January 1993 attempted to protect Bos- Western efforts to end the war in Bosnia-adopted some of the state symbols and nian sovereignty and territorial integrityHerzegovina included economic andterritorial claims of its Nazi-created fas- with a decentralized government com-moral pressure. Economic sanctionscist state of 1941-45, and that some posed of 10 provinces. Although the ECagainst the rump Federal Republic ofMuslim groups had supportedthat and the UN Security Council supportedYugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) forproject, created fears that World War II the Vance-Owen peace plan, much of the aiding Bosnian Serbs were imposed inwas still being fought. Thus, Germany's American press and the Clinton Adminis- May 1992. They were stiffened in Aprilrole in early recognition of Croatia was a tration (and the Bosnian Serbs) did not. 1993 and enforcement was tightened inboon to Milosevic's brand of national- They viewed it as unenforceable and asAugust. The Federal Republic of Yugo- ism: nurturing Serbian paranoia of vic- rewarding Bosnian Serbs for aggression, slavia was suspended from the CSCE, timization, he claimed he was defending ethnic cleansing and bombardment ofdiplomatically isolated, and barred fromSerbs against a repeat of the genocide in cities to take territory. some activities of the UN. A War CrimesCroatia and Bosnia during World War H. The Bosnian government had suc- Tribunal has been established and is tak-Since Germany could not constitutionally ceeded in its efforts to influence publicing evidence under a UN Security Coun-employ military force and the U.S. had opinion and get support for a bettercil mandate voted February 22, 1993. But repeated frequently that it would be un- settlement for the Muslim victims of thethe sanctions have thus far strengthened willing to use ground troops or to agree war, but this sympathy did not bring mili-Milosevic's power within Serbia andto NATO action in Yugoslavia, this third tary aid to reverse the Muslims' losses to worsened the economic conditions thatcamp assessed correctly that it could act Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats. Theare tinder for war, leading many to fearwithout fear of retaliation. Only much plan with its commitment to a Bosniancivil war in Serbia and the Europeans to later did NATO, under U.S. pressure, de- 12 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 9 FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

ploy a few ships in the Adriatic to voys often unable to reach villages underleast as bloody and contested. Some ex- enforce trade sanctions, create a "no-fly siege or caught in the cross fire of rivalperts doubt war can be contained within zone"inBosnia-Herzegovina,andarmies, the prospect of mass starvation,Bosnia-Herzegovina. If borders continue threaten air strikes against Bosnian Serb disease and death from exposure in win-to be subject to contest and territories to artillery and supply routes. ter was all too real. partition, what is to stand in the way of Serbs in Croatia and in Bosnia-not only greater Croatia and greater The army Herzegovina had claimed a Serbian Re-Serbia, but also greater Albania and The final actor in the third camp was thepublic. Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovinagreater Hungary? army. When a state dissolves withouthad created their own state of Herzeg- prior agreement on borders or dispositionBosnia, which would eventually join Refugees of state assets, the organization respon-Croatia. Muslims in Bosnia-HerzegovinaThe continuing flow of refugees also fa- sible for defending the borders must findhad lost their hopes of a unitary sover- vors continuation of war and lawlessness. a new role or new loyalties. The Brionieign Bosnia and were subdividing into This mechanism is less politically moti- agreement held the army responsible forautonomous regions and isolated citiesvated, but also less controllable. In cen- using force to change borders, and eachonly nominally protected by the UN. tral Bosnia-Herzegovina, people expelled successive negotiation required it to re-Quarrelsbetween Montenegroandfrom their villages elsewhere (especially treat further into what remained of theSerbia, which had joined in a new Fed- eastern Bosnia by Serbs, but also from former country. Efforts by army units toeral Republic of Yugoslavia in Aprilneighboring villages by Croats) and who play a neutralizing role or to fight para- 1992, threatened a split. Albanian politi-have nowhere else to go are providing military gangs were discounted, and talkscal aspirations in Kosovo and westerncannon fodder for government forces. between the Bosnian government andMacedonia were growing, and Mace- Slovenia and Croatia closed their borders army leadership over demobilization, re-donia remained unrecognized by the U.S.to refugees in AugustSeptember 1992 tirements and housing in the fall of 1991and other countries because of Greek ob-(and therefore passage to other countries were interrupted by the EC decisions onjections to its name. Numerous autono-as well). A partition of Bosnia could re- recognition. Although the army had alsomist movements had emerged withinquire the forced resettlement of a million begun to disintegrate among nationalSerbia and within Croatia. or more persons. Population exchanges groups, the remaining core and the bulk The partition of Bosnia creates prob- are taking place (mostly involuntarily) of its heavy artillery, tanks, airpower and lems in the rest of the country. Ifwithin the UNPAs in Croatia. Most of logistical support went to aid local armies Tudjman can incorporate Bosnian territo-the 600,000 refugees in Serbia are of Serbs in Croatia and to form two newries, what claim does he have on Serb-housed in family homes, and have be- armies, one of Bosnian Serbs and a newheld areas in Croatia? If the republican come the source of increasingly open ten- Yugoslav Army. borders do not hold, what legitimacy issions. In AprilJune 1993, Serbia began The situation in late fall 1993 contin-there for Serbian rule over Kosovo andto disqualify anyone from Serbian areas ued to deteriorate. Political negotiationsVojvodina, or what principle will preventin Bosnia (56 communes) or the Croatian over the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina hadradicals on both sides from war? Even ifkrajina (20 communes) as refugees, un- stalled with the Bosnian government'sthe Solomonic choice in Bosnia is ap-less eligible for Red Cross aid, so as to rejection of the Owen-Stoltenberg plan.plied to Kosovo, as many have arguedforce them to return home. With the UN's humanitarian relief con-for some time, its partition would be at Albania and Greece have been in continuous conflict over Albanian refugees OF (OURSE,I FEEL BAD ABOUT THE BALKAN SITUATION. in Greece (and lately Greeks from Alba- BUT THEN I A5K MYSELF, WHAT nia wishing to enter Greece) for more HAS BOSNIA than two years. EVER DONE Should fighting erupt in Macedonia, FOR ME? this will bottle up refugees there or send them into Bulgaria or Serbia. Greek Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou has said he will close the border with Macedonia if it does not give up the name because to Greeks this implies it has territorial aspirations to the northern province of Macedonia in Greece. Another consequence of war has been astounding unemployment, from Slo- venia to Macedonia. In the early stages, the unemployed provided ready fighters because they were promised pay and benefits. Outside immediate war zones, they vote for xenophobic, right-wing radicals and exacerbate ethnic tensions with gang fights, crime and terrorizing

DANZ1GER IN THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR 0 1003 MY' minorities. Armies no longer have the 10 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 13 FORMER YUGOSLAVIA option or resources to screen for psycho- logically unsuited recruits, so that "incidents" which can escalate into armed confrontations are on the rise (including in Serbia). While pensioners in Serbia are committing suicide and civilians trapped in Bosnian towns under siege are starving to death, the collapse of economies and currencies under either war or sanctions is feeding radicalization (support for militant solutions), real ethnic conflict, and a reign of war profiteers, sanction runners, criminal syndicates and general- ized terror. Whereas the wars began with a breakdown of civil authority and a lo- calized scramble to control stockpiles of weapons and military equipment, create paramilitaries and expel political enemies, the economic hardship has led to new sources of local rebellion, such as soldiers or local politicians. SARAJEVO: ONCE A HOME,now a base for firing mortar rounds into the surrounding The international community is cur- neighborhood. rently tolerating extensive police repression in the region to keep order, but suchprecedence when they are in conflict, lics, have sent mercenaries; northern Eu- repression actually encourages the likeli-self-determination or the sanctity of bor-ropean countries have aided Slovenia and hood that small incidents can escalate.ders? noninterference or human rights?Croatia; and many Islamic countries have Government budgets go to the war effortResolution of the conflict between thehelped Bosnia-Herzegovina. The more and building new arms industries. The right to national self-determination and a the Bosnian conflict is portrayed as a reli- calculation is that Western recession andmultinational environment has been rel- gious war, the more it can destabilize political barriers against Yugoslav tradeegated to the category of internal affairs.moderate, secular governments in the will continue and that the surest exportThe world denounces the genocidal ac- Middle East under pressure from Islamic market lies in rearmament and local warstions of ethnic cleansing with one hand,fundamentalists. As long as borders are predicted throughout the region. Theand accepts the inevitability of ethnic not settled, the process of reversal cannot transitionto market economies andconflict and nationally exclusive statesbegin. Only open borders can reassure democratic governments is at a standstill,with the other. Political negotiations andminorities that they are not trapped in and has been harshly damaged in neigh-humanitarian aid have focused, more-national states and provide the economic boring countries, such as Bulgaria, Alba-over, on single contests, forgetting thatcooperation necessary to viable states. nia, Romania and Hungary. No interna-the dissolution of a state and wars over When the EC internationalized the in- tional compensation exists for the eco-its successor-states mean they are inter-ternal republican borders of former Yu- nomic and social burden of refugees, therelated. goslavia without recognizing inevitable interruption of the only overland trans- disputes or guaranteeing those borders portation between Europe and the Middle A global conference? militarily, it gave advantage to those with East, the cost of building new routesThe Geneva negotiators now propose aarms. The massive production and pur- around Yugoslavia, and the billions lostglobal conference, recognizing yet againchase of weapons for cold-war defense in regional trade, in enforcing sanctionsthat no settlement can be reached in onebecame available for internal war in a and in economic decline. region independently of the others, butnonaligned country patronized by both the difficulty is how to incorporate new superpowers. The elaborate civil defense International complicity representatives who can propose compro- provided stocks of weapons and training The Yugoslav conflict demonstrates themises, save face and begin the restoration for local militia, rival political parties and tendency of nationalist conflict to esca-of civil order. The importance of thiscitizens' self-protection. Weapons dis- late out of control when there is no coun-cannot be underestimated because na-carded by NATO and the former Soviet terbalance.Internationalinterventiontional groups spill over international, as bloc's military alliance, the Warsaw Pact, helped marginalize domestic counter-well as internal, borders throughout theflowed in. Western powers sought to weights. By taking sides of particular na-region. Any aggrieved minority can ap- avoid military involvement by arming tional groups, specifying victims and ag- peal for assistance to members of its "na-combatants within the country. Through- gressors, it accepted the nationalist argu- tion" in a neighboring province or state,out the region there are surplus arms and ments. and they feel obliged to respond. Russian mercenaries left over from superpower The international community has notnationalists, for whom the plight of Serbscompetition. Demobilized soldiers and yet confronted the clash of norms that its evokes that of Russians outside Russiaofficers whose pay and amenities are fall- actions have encouraged. Which takes and tensions with the autonomous repub-ing rapidly are selling off stocks of weap- 14 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 11 OPIC FORMER YUGOSLAVIA 1 tral, international norms necessary to No,i40,11415 iS iiiPePeriPern SeRBiSTaN. Bosnian sovereignty and all the victims We.PUBLIC of Uz13.ecKia i5 "1"Wo gLocfcS (Muslim and non-Muslim) who support i'MaT Way. Go UP aLl .e.( GommoNWeaLTH that cause. Insisting on a better Muslim OF edaLGRavia , TWO LeF'T aT UtirreD deal in the Vance-Owen peace plan 14TYanlia. IF You Gel° To UPP6R weakened the plan's authority and gave You'V6 GoNeToo FAR_ Bosnian Serbs an excuse to defeat it. En- couraging patron-client relations in the bargaining over Bosniadelegating the Bosnian Croats to Germany, introducing a Russian interlocutor into the negotiations for Bosnian Serbs, and becoming patron to the Bosnian Muslimshad the effect of introducing major-power interests and conflict into the quest for solutions, including a Russian threat of veto in the UN Security Council. Like the previous Administration, it chose to ration its resources and attention with a policy of national interest, defining economic reform and democratization in Russia ons that arms and force reductions haveremain protectionist. Western powers withinthatcategoryandBosnia- said must go. Governments continue tocontinue to ignore the need to incorporateHerzegovina of no strategic importance. sell weapons in order to keep defense in- armies and states of former YugoslaviaIn April it countered Russian proposals to dustries going, slow the appearance ofinto European security cooperation or toreinvigorate peace negotiations through mass unemployment, keep open marketsget control of the flow of arms. Thethe UN by organizing a joint-action pro- being claimed by Western powers, andBalkans remain a black hole in Europeangram of humanitarian aid and indicating finance imports when Western markets security considerations. willingness to commit troops to enforce whatever peace agreement was reached by Bosnian parties. Its efforts then turned to improving relief to Muslims trapped U.S. foreign policy by Serbian siege in eastern Bosnian towns, such as Srebrenica, with an airlift US. FOREIGNPOLICY towardthe Presidential candidate Clinton took upthat has lasted longer and is more exten- conflict in Yugoslavia began inthe cause of Muslim victims in thesive than the Berlin airlift of 1948. In 1989. Between 1989 and 1991 the BushBosnian war during the 1992 electionAugust it persuaded NATO to threaten Administration crossed the country off its campaign, accusing the Bush Administra-air strikes on Bosnian Serb forces and strategic agenda. It welcomed Europeantion of moral defeatism. Upon taking of-supply routes if they did not end the initiatives in 1991, and began to define afice, however, he discovered that few op- strangulation of Sarajevo. post-cold-war policy in which regional tions remained for effective intervention U.S. airplanes based in Germany cur- organizations would be responsible foras long as his Administration, too, was rently drop parcels of food and medicines managing regional conflicts. By mid-unwilling to commit ground troops to help to towns trapped by fighting throughout 1992, the Group of Seven and the UNbring peace. In February 1993, he pro-Bosnia-Herzegovina. Presidents Bush had declared this doctrine. In its cam-posed lifting the arms embargoso thatand Clinton have both warned Serbian paign to recognize Bosnian sovereigntythe Bosnian government could arm toPresident Milosevic officially that the the U.S. made no commitments, for itsdefend itself on a more "level playingU.S. will act should fighting begin in its purpose was to restore unity with its Eu-field" against heavy artillery held byprovince of Kosovo and endanger the ropean allies over Croatia and Slovenia. Bosnian Serbsand to aid that fight withAlbanian population. UN troopsin Throughout shifts in policy, the Bushselective bombing by U.S. planes. TheMacedonia include 325 U.S. soldiers Administration remained consistent thatEuropeans oppose both "lift and strike"who monitor activities in hopes of pre- the U.S. would not commit military force options, however, because they have sol-venting war by early warning. President to a place where it saw no vital interests.diers on the ground in UN forces protect- Clinton continues to support his February Taking the lead back from Europe after ing humanitarian convoys and relief work- 1993 policy to use air strikes against the April 1992 recognition, the U.S. ers and because lifting the embargo would Bosnian Serbs and to lift the arms em- pressed through the UN for sanctionsbe merely symbolic unless arms were ac-bargo. (A U.S.-sponsored resolution to against Serbia and Montenegro and fortually delivered to landlocked Bosnia. lift the arms embargo in favor of the their diplomatic isolation. But it retainedThey would in any case prolong the war. Bosnian Muslims was defeated in June its distance, insisting on humanitarian aid In defending Muslims against Serb 1993 in the UN Security Council.) Re- to relieve suffering and the CSCE hu-aggressors, moreover, the Clinton Ad- flecting concern about domestic political man-rights mechanisms as twin pillars of ministration played into the nationalistopposition, the President conditionally any intervention. framework instead of protecting the neu-committed the U.S. to providing half of GREAT DECISIONS 1994 12 15 tr p FORMER YUGOSLAVIA the 50,000 or more peacekeeping troopsing interruption of regional economiestarian disaster will worsen, a new ap- needed according to UN and U.S. mili-and the negative example of global lead-proach at diplomatic negotiations is un- tary assessments to enforce a peaceership have broad and direct implications avoidable. Nationally exclusive states settlement for Bosnia-Herzegovina, butfor this country's global power. The de-and partition are unstable outcomes. U.S. congressional opposition is strong andmands on humanitarian missions will in- policy scuttled previous negotiations on mounting in light of U.S. casualties increase; already the UN considers with-Bosnia, and it can veto any effort to alter Somalia. drawing because of the danger and lackUN sanctions. U.S. leadership will be Few believe that the package of cur-of cooperation from warring groups.broadly welcomed by most countries in rent U.S. actions constitutes a policy. AsMore likely than an alternative Europeanthe world. a stopgap between forces for and againstresponse is worsening conflict among Con: Leaders in Yugoslavia who intervention, responding with humanitar- Western powers. Segregating moral con- have gained what they want warn of ian relief, moral condemnation of Serbscerns into humanitarian relief without at-opening a "Pandora's box." More talks and sanctions on Serbia, it appears to ad-tention to the political causes is not a pro- without willingness to stop fighting on dress domestic vacillation between moralductive policy. the ground may only lose more time outrage and disinterest. It proposes no 2. Mobilize an international groundwithout saving lives. If citizens within solution to the problem of national self-operation to stop the war in Bosnia-the former country are not given a hear- determination in multiethnic communi-Herzegovina and provide a transi- ing and if the warriors are not given ways ties while it exacerbates the economictional authority. to save face, a peace conference may not austerity and political instability that con- Pro: Parties on the ground are unable produce anything new. Western powers tributed to the war and its spread. Fourto stop the war alone. Without some out- would have to take far more initiative on State Department officials have resignedside force, escalation is likely. Althoughpolitical questions than they have been in protest of the Bush Administration fordiplomatic activity with a credible threatwilling to take so far. doing little to defend Bosnian sover-in 1990-91 might have sufficed, the fight- 4. Initiate a far-ranging policy re- eignty and of the Clinton Administrationing has created such distrust, as well asview of the role of Western policy and for abandoning the Muslims it champi-political and economic collapse, that an international organizations in the oned. But Secretary Christopher insistsoutside force is necessary. The popula-causes of such wars and lead its allies that television pictures should not be thetion wants an end to the war and willin institutional and policy reforms "North Star" of U.S. foreign policy.welcome an international force that isaimed at effective prevention. There is little discussion of ways to pre-neutral and helps local groups restore ba- Pro: The Yugoslav conflict is a para- vent such conflicts before it is too late sic security so that civil order can be re-digm for many other conflicts which can elsewhere or to enforce international lawbuilt. Instead of mass tragedy still to still be prevented. The international com- and security for citizens fated to live income, Western moral conscience andmunity exacerbated the domestic conflict countries of no national interest to theU.S. credibility can still be restored andbecause it did not understand the situa- major powers. Current options suggestalso give pause to those who believe thetion and because it is not prepared for the harsh lesson of early mistakes and the international community will not inter-post-cold-war conflict. Unless there is a difficult reconceptualization that will vene to defend international norms with-reconceptualization of peacekeeping and have to occur. out the threat of Soviet response or thepeacemaking, of procedures for recogniz- loss of a strategic resource (such as oil).ing new states and negotiating the U.S. policy options In light of Somalia and the prospect ofbreakup of old states, and of means to I. Continue present policy, includ- many more impending conflicts like thelimit arms flows and refugees, then the ing support for UN humanitarian aid,former Yugoslavia, there is also an in-moral, political and financial costs of fu- verbal backing for the Muslims incentive for the military to use this oppor-ture conflicts will rise. Because the U.S. Bosnia-Herzegovina, plans to pros-tunity to mount such an operation. Thedoes care about the free-market and ecute war criminals and genocide, andlatter should include substantial civil anddemocratic transformation of former economic sanctions on Serbia andpolice components. Communist states such as Russia, it does Montenegro, but otherwise stay out of Con: An ill-conceived interventionnot want to repeat the mistakes of the the conflict. could pose great dangers. It could exacer- Yugoslav transition. U.S. leadership in Pro: The Yugoslav war is a Europeanbate the conflict or give warring parties athe world is at stake in the former Yugo- problem of no vital interest to the U.S.new enemy and cause. International op-slavia, even if Washington chooses not to America should do what it can througherations are poor at disarming and demo-act militarily. the UN to support the victims and protectbilizing parties who have not given up Con: The Administration was elected civilians, but it should not risk soldiers'their war aims. Countries are not in theto solve domestic problems. Such an ef- lives and the possibility of a long-termposition to provide either the necessaryfort would require major political re- quagmire except where its global powertroops or finance the costs because ofsources which could divert it from that is at stake. current commitments and impending task. Moreover, a multilateral review will Con: These measures have failed toones of greater importance. not succeed; it must be part of an inter- stop the war or produce a political agree- 3. Support a new global peace con-national effort to reshape multilateral in- ment. The fighting will likely continue,ference on the former Yugoslavia and stitutions and concepts of security. A bet- with unknown but ominous threats tosee the talks through to conclusion. ter route to a post-cold-war world is Western security. European security is an Pro: Since few countries want to be- through national interest and unstructured American vital interest, and the continu-come involved militarily and the humani-evolution. 15

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 13 16 TOPIC FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

4. Americans live in a pluralistic, multi-An Agenda for Peace, urged UN member SSFION ethnic, multicultural society. What canstates to think more about preventive di- they do to ease the difficulties of multi-plomacy. What actions can the U.S. take DONS ethnic states so that human rights, regard-to institutionalize preventive diplomacy? less of ethnic background, are protected?Should current thinking about interven- so that ethnic groups can preserve theirtion, nonmilitary influence and the role of 1. What does global leadership mean inidentities without requiring political au-military force change? Are there ob- this new period? What are the obligationstonomy? so that peoples can enjoy rights staclestodiscussingpreventionin of the U.S. to create a new order as it did to self-determination without destroyingAmerican politics? in 1944-49? What are the costs and risksnation-states or the rights of others? if it does not take on a leadership role in 8. The Clinton Administration aims to cooperation with other countries? 5. The international community accepts"enlarge" the sphere of market-oriented the right of interventionto protectdemocracies, and it emphasizes this 2. What will be the consequences foruniversal human rights. How can it dopolicy toward Russia. What help can the international peace and security if no oneso without violating the right of peoplesU.S. and Western countries give? Will takes on the responsibility to write and tononinterferenceintheirinternalthe policy work if only a few countries enforce the rules of an international affairs? at a time are selected? Can such an community and to initiate new forms of approach harm the process of democra- cooperation? 6. What are the implications for U.S.tization? global leadership if NATO fails? if the 3. Do Western governments have an ob-UN goes into crisis? Are there better9. Should the U.S. be concerned by the ligation to help former socialist countries ways to organize European and interna-emergence of national states, ethnic integrate into the West and to cooperate tional security? apartheid and racist or nationalist vio- with them on economic and security rela- lence in Europe and elsewhere? How tions? Do they have an interest in doing7. UN SecretaryGeneralBoutrosdoes it affect this country? What can and so? Boutros-Ghali, in a 1992 report entitledshould be done?

U.S. Committee for Refugees, World Refugee Survey 1993. Washington, D.C., American Council for Nationalities Service, 1993. $10.00. 160 pp. CES Zametica, John, "The Yugoslav Conflict." Adelphi Paper 270. London, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Summer Christopher, Warren, Statement by the secretary of state to the 1992. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, November 4, 1993. Available from the Bureau of Public Affairs, U.S. Department ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF NATIONALITIES, City Collegeof of State. See General Resources on p. 92. New York, Convent Ave. at 138th St., New York, N.Y. 10031; (212) 650-7000.Run by the City College of New York's his- Djilas, Aleksa, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity andtory department, this organization examines ethnic interactions Communist Revolution 1919-1953. Cambridge, Mass.,in Eurasia and Eastern Europe and distributes the Analysis of Harvard University Press, 1991. $39.95. 259 pp. Current Events, single-topic opinion essays. Contact Professor Henry Huttenbach at (212) 650-7476. Drakulic, Slavenka, The Balkan Express: Fragments from the Other Side of War. New York, Norton, 1993. $ INTERNATIONAL RESCUE COMMITTEE (IRC),386 Park Ave. South, 208 pp. New York, N.Y. 10016; (212) 679-0010.Founded in 1933 at the request of Albert Einstein, IRC helps refugees fleeing from "Europe and the Balkans." Current History, November 1993.political, religious and racial persecution, as well as uprooted The entire issue is devoted to the region. victims of war and famine.

Glenny, Misha, The Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan REFUGEES INTERNATIONAL,220 I St., N.E., Suite 240, Washing- War. New York, Penguin, 1993. $10.00. 208 pp. ton, D.C. 20003; (202) 547-3785.Monitors and analyzes refugee crises to develop and promote strategies and solutions Goodby, James E., "Peacekeeping in the New Europe." Thethat address specific refugee needs and raise to prominence the Washington Quarterly, Spring 1992, pp. 153-71. issue of refugees and their plight.

Remington, Robin, "The Federal Dilemma in Yugoslavia." Current History, December 1990, pp. 405+.

Rusinow, Dennison, "Yugoslavia: Balkan Breakup?" Foreign Policy, Summer 1991, pp. 143-59. 14 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 17 OPINION BALLOTS How to use the Opinion &gigots: For your convenience, there are two copies of each opinion ballot. Please cut out and mail one ballot only. To have your vote counted, please mail ballots by June 30, 1994. Send ballots to: FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION, 729 SEVENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10019 M-IMM11111111111111111111111111111111 111111-11111-111111-1M 11111-1111111111-111111111111-1111111111111-111111111111-1111,111111111-111111111-1111111111111-1111-111

TOPIC Conflict in I TOPIC Conflict in I PI I I Former Yugoslavia Former Yugoslavia II I ISSUE A. In its policy toward the former Yugoslavia, the I ISSUE A. In its policy toward the former Yugoslavia, the I U.S. should: I U.S. should: I YES NO 1 YES NO 1 1. Avoid future involvement in what is I 1. Avoid future involvement in what is essentially a European problem. essentially a European problem. CI I I 2. Support UN humanitarian aid, I 2. Support UN humanitarian aid, I prosecution of war criminals and I prosecution of war criminals and I 1 economic sanctions. economic sanctions. C:1 Li I 0 3. Arm the Muslims and use air power I 3. Arm the Muslims and use air power Ito protect them from attack. I to protect them from attack. 0 I I4. Mobilizean international ground 1 4. Mobilize an international ground 11 1 operation to stop the war in operation to stop the war in I Bosnia-Herzegovina. I Bosnia-Herzegovina. 11 1 I 1 5. Support a new global peace 1 5. Support a new global peace I conference on the former Yugoslavia. 0 I conference on the former Yugoslavia. I 6. Lead allies in institutional and 6. Lead allies in institutional and I i policy reforms to prevent future policy reforms to prevent future O "Yugoslavias." CI I "Yugoslavias." I I 7. Other, or comment I 7. Other, or comment I I 1 I I I I I First three digits of your zip code: I First three digits of your zip code: IDate:/ /1994 Ballot continues on reverse side... I Date: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... I :wwmommmilmommommmommimisamsommoissiumwmININIE im w w IN 1.11i I 0 I I TOPIC 1 TOPIC I I I 9 South Africa I 2 South Africa I I I ISSUE A. In its economic relations with South Africa, the ISSUE A. In its economic relations with South Africa, the I g U.S. should: U.S. should: IYES NO I YES NO I I 1. Provide grants and loans to jump- I 1. Provide grants and loans to jump- 1 start the economy. CI I start the economy. U 2. Encourage international financial 2. Encourage international financial I institutions to provide funds. CI I institutions to provide funds. P I I 3. Encourage the U.S. private sector 3. Encourage the U.S. pprivate sector 1 I to trade with and invest in South 11 to trade with and invest in South I Africa. CI U I Africa. III I 4. Treat South Africa no differently I 4. Treat South Africa no differently I i thanany other country. 0 I than any other country. II I5.Other, or comment 1 5. Other, or comment I 1 1 I I I II I I 1 1 I First three digits of your zip code: First three digits of your zip code: 111 IDate: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... I Date: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... SIMIIIIIIIIEIIIIIIIIIIIIMIIIIIIIII-IMI 1.-... immarlimmuemmerem-mtem-imuomm_vm mum ms me me um mil GREAT DECISIONS 1994 15 18 OPINION BALLOTS

11111-11111-10111111111M-111111-1111111111-MM-MM-1111-110-1111-111111-111111111-11111 IN-WWII III 1111111WM IM III III III EMI I In planning future GREAT DECISIONS programs, we would find itIIIn planning future GREAT DECISIONS programs, we would find it I helpful to know more about participants and would appreciate your helpful to know more about participants and would appreciate i answers to the questions below. 111 your answers to the questions below. A. How many years have you participated in the GREAT DECISIONSIA. How many years have you participated in the GREAT DECISIONS program (that is, attended one or more discussion sessions)? program (that is, attended one or more discussion sessions)? I 1. This is the first year I have participated. O 1. This is the first year I have participated. 2. I participated in one previous year. I 2. I participated in one previous year. I 3. I participated in more than one previous year. I 3.1 participated in more than one previous year. I a B. What is your age? B. What is your age? 1. 17 or under 2. 18 to 30 3. 31 to 45 1. 17 or under 0 2. 18 to 30 3. 31 to 45 I I 4.46 to 60 5.61 or over 4.46 to 60 5. 61 or over I C. Your sex? C. Your sex? (a1. Female 1. Female 2. Male CI2. Male I D. Have you been abroad during the last four years? ID. Have you been abroad during the last four years? I I C31. Yes U 1. Yes I 2. No I 2. No IE. What is the highest level of formal education you have completed? IE. What is the highest level of formal education you have completed? 1. Some high school 2. High school degree 1. Some high school 2. High school degree I 3. Some college 4. College graduate 3. Some college 4. College graduate I 5. Advanced degree 5. Advanced degree IF. How often are you asked for your opinion on foreign policy matters? F. How often are you asked for your opinion on foreign policy matters? I 1. Often 2. Sometimes 1:13. Hardly ever 1. Often 2. Sometimes 3. Hardly ever G. One final question. Would you say you have or have not changed yourIG. One final question. Would you say you have or have not changed your I opinion in a fairly significant way as a result of taking part in theI opinion in a fairly significant way as a result of taking part in the GREAT DECISIONS program? GREAT DECISIONS program?

121 I 1. Have 2. Have not 3. Uncertain I CI1. Have 2. Have not 3. Uncertain I First three digits of your zip code: IFirst three digits of your zip code:

ill. MOM 1111111111111111111111 111111111111111111. M

ISSUE B. With respect to South Africa's democratic ISSUE B. With respect to South Africa's democratic transition, the U.S. should (choose one): transition, the U.S. should (choose one): 1 1. Provide technical assistance, for example poll 1. Provide technical assistance, for example poll 1 watchers. watchers. 1 2. Play no role, direct or indirect. 2. Play no role, direct or indirect.

I I I

16 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 19 SOUTH AFRICA Excitement and apprehension surround the event. Can there be "free and fair" elections in a country so long engulfed in violence, where the majority has been disenfranchised? Mandela told a South Africa: press conference in New York, "I am75 years of age. I have not voted in my country. I am not allowed to vote. I do forginga not know what happens inside the voting booth. If I do not know how to vote...you can imagine the position of millions in democratic union my country." These were the words of the man widely expected to take over as As all South Africans prepare to go to the polls forthe firstSouth Africa's first democratically cho- time, economic uncertainty and violence cloud a timeofsen president. Because they have been systematically excluded from learning hope. Why should Americans help? What can theydo? about, let alone participating in, democratic processes, blacks approach April at by Jean Herskovits an overwhelming disadvantage. Dangers also loom. Unemployment for blacks in a stagnant economy has reached almost50%.Years of protest and police violence have left young blacks in cities without schooling, vocational training or jobsbut with weapons. Extrem- ists, white and black, threaten to derail a peaceful transition. This is not just another electionnot for South Africa, Africa or the world. For Americans its success is a matter of deep concern. Despite major differences between the racial problems of South Af- rica and the U.S., there are enough paral- lels between the two to make events there resonate here. African Americans feel a special tie, and they are not alone. Living in the most multiracial country in the world, Americans have a stake in South Africa's achieving justice across racial and ethnic lines. Americans know from experience that changing laws and securing the vote for AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESSsupporters pull aside a campaign banner reading "vote for freedom, peace and democracy" to watch ANC president Nelson Mandela address a rallyofall do not eradicate racial injustice. But some 80,000 people in Durban, South Africa. they are a vital beginning. South Africans ask three things from Americans: first, to OUTH AFRICA'Sappointmentthe central government, and a new con-help provide voter education and training 66 with destiny is on track,"stitutional court independent of govern- for political parties denied earlier chances Nelson Mandela, president ofment control. to contest elections; second, to trade with the African National Congress (ANC), But the defining moment for Southand invest in South Africa's economy declared in September1993. HiscountryAfrica's nonracial democracy still lies now that all have joined in the call to lift had just passed a point of no return: someahead. On April27, 1994,for the firstsanctions; and third, to assist in recon- two dozen parties had agreed to givetime all voting-age South Africansstruction, breaking down walls to bring blacks their first say in South Africa'sblack as well as whitewill be eligibleabout a fully integrated society and governance. to cast ballots. The government they pro-economy. On November17the negotiatorsduce will be a transitional one with a for- Challenges to apartheid made another stunning breakthrough:midable challenge: to write a final consti- they agreed on the basic principles of atution and to run the country at the same Although it had been on the United Na- post-apartheid constitution. Truly revolu-time. It will be a government of national tions' agenda since1952,apartheid seized tionary for South Africa were a Bill ofunity, with representatives in the cabinet JEAN HERSKOVITSis professor of history at Rights, a structure of nine regions withfrom every party that receives at least5% the State University of New York at Purchase separate, if limited, powers from those ofof the vote. and has written extensively on Africa. 2 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 7 101IC SOUTH AFRICA

unified and muscle-flexing Germany, whose sympathies were A brief history with the Boers. Anglo-Boer war SOUTH AFRICA'S HISTORY did not begin with the arrival in Having defeated the Zulu in 1879 (but not without first suffer- 1652 of the Dutch East India Company's agents, sent toing a humiliating defeat at their hands) and having split them up provide fresh food for ships en route to the Orient ininto 13 "kingdoms," the British turned to the Boers. By geo- search of riches. Since time immemorial hunters and gatherersgraphical accident the latter controlled both diamond fields and had lived near the Cape, and by A.D.300 the ancestors ofgold reefs.The British triumphed in the Anglo-Boer War of today's Bantu-speaking majority had already begun to farm 1899-1902, in which the African majority were virtual bystand- south of the Limpopo River. From there they moved south. An- ers, though often victims. cestors of such groups as the Xhosa and Zulu settled along the The British compensated the defeated Boers by forming an fertile east coast; the forebears of the modern-day Sotho andindependent Union of South Africa, which they freed in 1910. Tswana went to the dry plateau to the north and west. Every subsequent prime minister was an Afrikaner, even The Dutch settlers, who were predominantly male, startedthough English-speaking South Africans retained economic another significant population group, the Cape Coloured, power for a long time. The irony, which only a few noted at the through racial mixing. Over time, French and German Protes- time, was that the Africans, whose war it had not been, were the tants fleeing religious persecution at home joined the Dutchlosers. population. Their language evolved into a variant of Dutch they As early as 1913 legislation was passed that, with later called Afrikaans, and they began calling themselves Afrikaners.amendments, consigned nearly 90% of South Africa's people to Until the end of the 18th century these groups lived in a kinda mere 13% of the land. Africans were generally prohibited of equilibrium, not without racial discrimination but with onlyfrom owning land outside the "tribal reserves." The twin con- scattered conflict. Never pleased to obey the authorities in Capecepts of a divided society and institutionalized deprivation of Town, the growing settler population began to move east and the majority were thus imprinted on the economy. north. Each family of trekboers (Dutch for migrant farmers) What limited political rights blacks had were whittled away. took along a few slaves. To sustain life on the frontier, each Africans protested, and in 1912 the ANC was founded and be- adult male claimed 6,000 acres for himself and his family. gan its decades-long campaign of peaceful opposition to dis- The trekboers were not the only growing population in thecriminatory treatment. It made a point of drawing leaders and area. The Bantu-speakers increased and gradually moved southfollowers from the entire country, regardless of the legacy of and west. Under the authority of their chiefs, numerous groups19th-century warfare, in an effort to unite the opposition. settled unoccupied land, farming and raising cattle. But land Afrikaners, still defensive toward English-speaking whites was not limitless, and clashes with the trekboers over land and who dominated the cities and the economy, organized to protect cattle raged for decades. their language and culture. In the 1930s, working through a secret society called the Broederbond, they fashioned plans to And then the British seize control of government The next wave of colonizers were the British, fresh from their victories in the Napoleonic wars. By 1806 they were in the Apartheid comes and stays Cape to stay. The laws they imposed and their modern views,Afrikaner nationalist leaders unexpectedly attained their goal by including opposition to the slave trade and later slavery itself,a slim margin in the 1948 (whites-only) election, which was drove fresh bands of Boer, or Afrikaner, families, their Bibleswon by their National party. For the next 45 years the National in hand, trekking across formidable mountains in covered wag-party charted South Africa's course. It called its ideology apart- ons. In the 1830s they reached present-day Natal, where they heid (separateness). found seemingly empty land laid waste by the great Zulu war- Apartheid, which carried the earlier concepts of dividing rior Shaka and his successors. society and institutionalizing deprivation to their extreme, dif- The British wanted above all to establish an orderly frontierfered from earlier discrimination in two ways. First, it charted a that was inexpensive to maintain. But nothing the British did,course to deny permanently political and economic equality to including annexing territory or abandoning it, which infuriatedblacks. The second difference was one of degree: apartheid Africans and Afrikaners alike, brought peace to the frontier. theory required color-coded control of all aspects of life. Laws The discovery of South Africa's mineral wealth opened a dictated how and where people couldor, if black, could not new chapter in that nation's history, equal in significance to themove and under what regulations. They prohibited protest and Zulu-driven disarray among Africans and the expanding Euro-prescribed ever-more stringent punishments for violations: long pean presence. Diamonds, found in 1867, drove the demand forprison sentences and the innovative "banning" of people and migrant labor. The men, who were forced to leave their familiespublications to remove them from public sight and influence. behind, could be strictly controlled. This pernicious practice,Attempts to organize resistance were very broadly defined as followed later in the gold mines, drained able-bodied males"Communist" and later "terrorist," and those found guilty were from the entire region. Not only was South African societyseverely punished, at times tortured or killed. divided, but deprivation of the black majority became institu- In their homelands policy the Afrikaners carved up the 13% tionalized. of "African" land, gerrymandered to exclude fertile areas, sub- Gold was discovered in 1886 along the Transvaal'ssoil resources and cities, to isolate blacks even further. They Witwatersrand, and it heightened British interest in South Af- perfected divide-and-rule tactics, applying them systematically rica. In the "Scramble for Africa," the rivals included a recently and mercilessly to all aspects of blacks' lives. 18 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 21 0 p i SOUTH AF RIC _ the world's attention on March 21, 1960,Gatsha Buthelezi, had in his student days when police in Sharpeville shot into a been a member of the ANC. He decided§ li crowd of peaceful African demonstrators, in the early 1970s (with ANC concur- ,Y, l''' I killing 69. In the severe clampdown thatrence) on a course that would allow him t I-. mo. - 6 '-' .` followed, the government closed off toto fight apartheid from within. By refus- -,-4-,.)," -' -s> blacks all nonviolent avenues of resin-ing full independence for KwaZulu, heg1J)*) 4 tance. The ANC, now banned from oper- prevented the Zulu from being denation-g4,'~,',- ating inside South Africa after almost 50alized by the South African government.Nyt° q years of peaceful protest, turned to armed Having created the homeland, South2 a struggle. A young, charismatic leaderAfrica's apartheid leaders could hardly ' 1.--,All formed the ANC's "armed wing,"forbid political activity there. Working . _,2 , T Umkhonto we Sizwe, meaning Spear ofinitially through a cultural organization, the Nation. His name was Nelsoncalled Inkatha (much as the Afrikaners t Mandela, and his daring efforts to buildhad done decades earlier with the ' Q. an underground organization made him a Broederbond), Buthelezi and others ...";;. special target of the government. He andcould organize for political purposes, an 3 his colleagues were swept up in policeoption barred to others. He was even able , - raids that led to a trial and imprisonmentto hold political rallies in Soweto. He did 'f,ov for sabotage and treason in 1964. not break with the ANC until 1979. CHIEF BUTHELEZI,chief minister of KwaZulu The government also banned the Pan- and president of the Inkatha Freedom party, Africanist Congress (PAC), a breakaway Soweto has joined with the white right in opposition to de Klerk and Mandela. movement from the ANC, formed in theWhenthePortuguesecoloniesof late 1950s over differences in strategyMozambique and Angola suddenly gainedshortage of skilled labor and, for the first and ideology, and it, too, turned to vio-independence in 1975 following a mili-time, net white emigration, mainly of lent resistance. Whereas the ANC hadtary coup in Portugal, young black Southprofessionals and skilled managers. And been open to all races, including mem-Africans saw that resistance could in factthere were signs of a split in Afrikaner- bers of the largely white South Africanbring results. The government's attemptdom. Whereas the government was con- Communist party, those who formed the to force Afrikaans on blacks in second-sidering reforming apartheid to keep PAC believed that the struggle in Southary school (ignoring how Afrikanersitself in power, a growing number of Africa should be African-led. These dif-themselves had resented having the En-Afrikaners insisted that any change was ferences between the ANC and PAC per- glish language imposed on them decadesunacceptable. sisted in exile and after their return toearlier) lit the fuse that led to protests in The international climate was increas- South Africa in 1990. the black township of Soweto. The So-ingly hostile. South Africa's government For more thanadecadeafterweto explosion was heard around thewarned of a "total onslaught" at the Sharpeville, black resistance appearedworld. Biko was beaten to death in 1977 hands of communism. The claim was un- shattered. The protest movement was re- by the South African police and becamefounded but it provided the excuse for vitalized by a dynamic young leadera martyr of the antiapartheid movement.P.W. Botha, defense minister from 1966 named Steve Biko, who picked up For the children, as the young of theuntil becoming prime minister in 1978, to strands of PAC thinking and mergedtownships came to be called, the eventsincrease greatly the role of the military in them with ideas of black pride comingof 1976 in Soweto set an example. Theygovernment. from the American civil-rights move- would refuse to cooperate, no matter how Botha told his constituents it was time ment to form the Black Consciousnessmany were jailed, maimed or killed by theto "adapt or die," meaning that while pre- movement. Despite legal obstacles, thepolice or the military. Following ANCserving Afrikaner power remained his movement gained momentum among policy, they would make the townshipsgoal, the means would be more flexible. students and in the black townships, "ungovernable," and insist on "liberationThis meant abandoning "petty" apartheid which provided the urban labor essential before education." Over a decade later thesymbols and practices not essential to pre- to the white community. urban youth, now called young lions andserving white power; bringing English- Meanwhile, the government wentlargely jobless, are among the most im-speaking South Africans into the National ahead with its apartheid plans and laws. patient and radical ANC supporters, de- It formalized the ethnically definedmanding concrete material and political KEY TO ACRONYMS homelands into so-called nations. Evenrewards for their years of sacrifice. though no one but South Africa would ANC African National Congress recognize them, four, starting with the Apartheid falters By thelate1970s South Africa's CODESA Convention for a Democratic Xhosa's Transkei, accepted indepen- South Africa dence, buttressing the government's ar-Afrikaner rulers faced threats on many gument that apartheid was working. fronts, all largely because of apartheid.COSATU Congress of South African However, KwaZulu, carved out ofInternal resistance could not be perma- Trade Unions Natal province as a homeland for thenently quelled. The economy was in IFP Inkatha Freedom party Zulu who played such a significant role trouble because of the expense of admin- PAC Pan-Africanist Congress in the country's history, would not coop-istering apartheid laws, a 10% inflation UDF United Democratic Front erate.Itsleader, Chief Mangosuthurate, a burgeoning black population, a GREAT DECISIONS 1994 19 22 SOUTH AFRICA

party; and wooing big business. Mean- Inkatha claimed national support but member countries, to assess the situation while, government policy encouraged eth- was overwhelmingly Zulu, even drawingin South Africa. After months of inter- nic and class divisions among blacks andon Zulu military tradition to bolster pride, viewing South Africans inside the coun- ruthlessly suppressed dissidents. though evoking that history made others try and in exile, they produced a "negoti- During the 1970s the black tradeuneasy. Confrontations between UDFating concept," only to have their effort union movement got back on its feet, and and Inkatha supporters in Natal, how- torpedoed by South Africa's invasion of in 1973 a series of uncoordinated strikesever, were not ethnic; those fighting werethree neighboring countries. had made headlines. The unions contin- all Zulu, and the clashes beganand The Eminent Persons Group recom- ued organizing against heavy odds, andcontinueover future political power. mended economic sanctions; at the same by 1979 the government concluded that time, demonstrators, organized by the the only way it could control black labor repression,i repeall black lobbying organization TransAfrica, was to legalize the unions. Protest escalated in the townships. Strikesin Washington, DC, and on American This reform did not produce a docilecomplemented bus and school boycotts. college campuses demanded the same black labor force. Instead, by 1986 over aPolicemen beat, tear-gassed and shotthing. In 1986, the Congress, under pres- million blacks had gained experience instone-hurling young blacks who came insure from black and white constituents, democracy through membership in theirwave after wave, while Western television overrode President Ronald Reagan's veto unions. New popularly chosen leaderscameras recorded it all for their nightlyand passed the Comprehensive Anti- produced victories at the bargaining tablenewscasts. Apartheid Act. The law made the U.S. that improved wages and working condi- The government imposed a state ofthe pace setter in imposing sanctions and tions. They also introduced a newandemergency in much of the country fromexerting other pressures on apartheid. legalmilitancy with a political edge. July 1985 to March 1986. It imposed an- Violence in the townships continued, When in 1983 the government pro-other in June which applied everywhereand protesters began attacking people in posed constitutional and political re-and indefinitely.Historian Leonardthe townships they suspected of collabo- forms, it only fueled black rage. ShiftingThompson called it "legalized tyranny."rating with the regime. Rent strikes, bus from a white prime minister to a whiteThe policesupported by thousands ofstrikes and school strikes increased as state president with increased powerssoldiers with armored vehiclesarrestedprotest expanded. The government re- mattered little to those who were stilland tortured at will; hit squads assassi-sponded with further repression. unrepresented; moreover, creating anated antiapartheid activists. The govern- Then, in 1989, P.W. Botha resigned three-chamber legislaturea dominantment banned, detained and tortured some;the presidency two weeks after suffering white one and two others for Asians andit tried others for sweepingly defined trea- a stroke, and the National party caucus Colouredswas an insult to Africans. son, to be executed or die in jail underreplaced him with F.W. de Klerk, an The so-called reforms invigoratedmysterious circumstances. Children as Afrikaner of impeccable credentials. De- black resistance in the townships. Thisyoung as eight were imprisoned, but the scribed by his more liberal brother time there was new coordination: someyouth especially would not give up. Willem as "a veritable Mr. National 575 groups of many kinds, sizes and As a conciliatory gesture, the govern- party," no one expected him to bring races sent a thousand delegates to formment by mid-1986 had repealed somerevolutionary change. As longtime ob- the United Democratic Front (UDF),segregationist laws, but its move was tooserver of Africa, Marina Ottaway, puts it, which would coordinate opposition tolittle and certainly too late. Multiraciallike all the party's reformers, he tried "to apartheid inside the country. Its goal waspolitical parties could now exist; interra-change the system enough to make it ac- a unified, democratic, nonracial South cial sex and marriage were allowed; cer-ceptable but not so much that essential Africa, based on the Freedom Chartertain jobs were no longer for whites only;principles were violated." But this was a which the ANC had adopted in 1955. some public facilities were desegregated;different time, and the "line separating Despite mounting arrests, detentions blacks were starting to move unchal-the abandonment of old goals from the and bannings, the government could not lenged into some previously white urbanuse of new means to attain old goals was destroy the UDF, nor could it destroy all areas. But there were no improvements in getting thinner and thinner." In retrospect its leaders because they were so numer-education or health services, and blacksit seems that the Afrikaners had ex- ous:churchmenlikethen-Bishopcontinued to be uprooted and movedhausted their options, but at the time no Desmond Tutu, the Reverend Frankabout at the government's whim. Open-one believed they could not continue Chikane and the Reverend Allan Boesak; ing up political rights to all was out of theadapting as they had before. women's leaders like Albertina Sisulu question. (whose husband was imprisoned with Apartheid crumbles Nelson Mandela); labor leaders like Cyril Sanctions' As suddenly as the Berlin Wall came Ramaphosa; and many others. When the government clamped down ondown, South Africa faced a new future. The UDF included almost all thosethe international media in 1985, theOn February 2, de Klerk announced that militantly opposing the regime with the viewing public in Europe, and especially he would unban the ANC, the PAC and exception of two groups. One containedthe U.S, had already become incensed by other antiapartheid organizations. The believers in Black Consciousness, whowhat they had seen on nightly newscasts, following week came the long-demanded were against including whites. The otherand were forcing governments to act. Inrelease of Mandela. In the months that group was Inkatha, which had severedthe winter and spring of 1986 the Corn- followed, exuberant crowds and political communication with ANC's exile leader-monwealth sent a seven-member Emi- leaders alike hailed the ANC leader as he ship in 1979. nent Persons Group, drawn from itstraveled his country and the world to 20 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 23 thank those who had long supported himparliamentary, paramilitary groups, nota-classroom but facing down armed men and his cause. bly the Afrikaner Resistance Movement.and vehicles in the townships. Out of While the blacks were euphoric, mostThe National party had enormous advan- such different experiences and eras came whites accepted the fact that the unthink- tages over the ANC: experience in orga-different strategiesand different expec- able had happened. A few greeted the nizing a party, holding elections and run-tations. change with enthusiasm, some with re- ning a government. It also had institu- lief, many with apprehension. Only those tional strength: a bureaucracy and secu- Mandela, de Klerk negotiate on the Afrikaner far right denouncedrityforces,thoughthoseposedWith Mandela's release and public what de Klerk had done, calling him achallenges to de Klerk as well. Theknowledge that de Klerk had taken the traitor, and vowed to oppose all change,Afrikaner-dominated civil service fearedextraordinary step of conducting discus- by violence if necessary. for its secure jobs; the security forces,sions with Mandela before he was freed, whose role in policymaking P.W. Bothait was clear that the ANC and the Na- Transition challenges had inflated, had long fought the ANCtional partyand those two menwould Hopes for a smooth, rapid transition to anand other enemies, at times extralegally, be central to working out South Africa's all-inclusive democracy based on justiceand did not relish change. constitutional future. and equity were unrealistic. The political The ANC had financial and genera- Formal negotiations were slow in and economic landscape was too deeplytional problems to contend with. No pre- coming, however. It was not until De- scarred by the long history of racial op-dominantly black political organizationcember 1991 that the Convention for a pression. Trust, essential to solving prob-could hope to match the resources of anyDemocraticSouthAfrica(Codesa) lems, was rare and even suspect. Repealwhite one, especially the National party. opened with an angry attack by Mandela of apartheid laws, unimaginable a shortThe ANC did not rush to change into aon de Klerk' s integrity and actions, time before, was only a starting point. political party for precisely that reason:which stunned the delegations of the 19 Blacks and whites had huge adjust-much of its support came from overseas,participating political organizations. ments to make. Both the ANC and theas it had through the years of exile, and The ANC and National party had dif- PAC would have to shift from having South African law did not allow foreignferent agendas. De Klerk, all agreed, was been a liberation movement in exile, with funding of political parties. no revolutionary; he hoped to continue an armed wing, to being a political party. The generational problem was espe- by other means what his party had done Their leaders were not prepared. First, nocially difficult. Leaders from the 1950s so successfully for so long: maintain one expected the opportunity to comeand 1960s with decades of jail or exileAfrikaner dominance regardless of insti- when it did, and second, the changebehind them had made obvious sacrifices tutional changes. Mandela and the ANC could only be made inside South Africa,for the cause; so had the younger ones of had a conflicting goal: a genuinely demo- where the exiled movements had limitedthe 1980s who opposed apartheid fromcratic South Africa and an end to white access.Who would lead in this newinside the country; and so had the chil-political and economic control under phaseapart from Mandela whom alldren, whose education was not in thepower-sharing or any other guise. accepted? The ANC had substantial international recognition, but the struggle, most agreed, had been won not by the exiles but inside the country, where the UDF and all the local organizations it embraced had claims of their own. So did another organization which was also sympathetic to the ANC: the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), the labor federation that in December 1985 had brought together some three dozen labor movements, largely but not exclusively black, and pulled considerable economic and political weight. Challenging the ANC and its allies were Chief Buthelezi and the (renamed) Inkatha Freedom party (IFP) on one side, and on the other, the smaller black con- sciousnessgroups,principallythe Azanian People's Organization and the PAC. At stake was more than a role in negotiations;it was future political strength. The National party also faced chal- lengeson its right, from the Conserva- NOBEL PEACE PRIZEwinners ANC President Nelson Mandela and South African President F.W tive party, which consolidated the parlia- de Klerk conferred in Washington, D.C., in September. They were joined by Foreign Minister mentary opposition, and from extra- Pik Botha. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 21 24 SOUTH AFRICA

unless there is confidence in the country's stability. Given the decades of institutionalized deprivation, redressing the imbal- The Economy ances is essential. As Harry Oppenheimer, a leader in the South African business community, put it in a June interview with the London Financial Times, "It's extremely dangerous to be ruled OUTH AFRICA FACES two hard truths as 1994 begins: (1) it is by people who have no material stake in the country. We've got almost impossible to make serious economic policy dur- to see that people in the majority have as large a share in the ing an election campaign, and (2) "no country has made amaterial assets of the country as we can." The challenge is how successful transition to democracy while its citizens' incomesto do that in a short time, and in the face of the educational and were going down," as Bruce Scott, professor of business ad-other deprivations apartheid has inflicted. ministration at the Harvard Business School, has noted. No one seriously doubts that a major overhaul of economic practice and Clear priorities policy are essential. A successful transition, according to aAmong the most urgent economic and social needs are labor- range of South Africans assessing the challenge, has to produceintensive projects and housing for blacks, especially in urban "a stable democracy, based on a stable social fabric with risingareas. These are among the priorities in restructuring the incomes which are reasonably distributed." This is the chal- economy proposed by South Africans and by such outsiders as lenge facing the Transitional Executive Council and the govern-the World Bank. They will require both public and private re- ment of national unity that will be chosen in April. sources. Despite its human resources and mineral reserves, and its Unlike many other countries, South Africa has great unused infrastructural and financial advantages, South Africa'scapacity. For example, it could generate 30% more electricity economy has stalled, with real wages declining for over a de- without building a single new power plant or transmission line. cade. International financial pressures and sanctions have ag- It would simply need to reopen nine plants.

gravated this situation, but lifting them will not remedy it be- Reducing expenditures on multiple bureaucracies created by 1 cause the principal cause has been apartheid. It distorted the apartheid and the inefficient state-owned industries designed to economy, devouring public funds to run its multiple bureaucra-keep whites fully employed would free funds for a public- cies and the security apparatus that supported it. works program to extend infrastructurepower lines, roads, pipe-borne waterto long-neglected black areas and to main- Apartheid's legacy tain existing services where whites and other blacks live. Rural Apartheid barred blacks (meaning all who were not white)areas, in particular, need help to promote more labor-intensive from owning homes or other property in "white South Africa"agriculture open to blacks on land of their own. Such assistance until 1980. It largely restricted Africans to the least skilledwould provide work, lessen the rush to the cities and improve occupations through "job reservation" until the late 1970s, food-production efficiency. effectively blocking managerial or entrepreneurial opportunities. Blacks were barred from trading or manufacturing in Education and health white areas, and were restricted even in black ones. InfluxEducation and health care for blacks are also high priorities, control kept most Africans living outside urban areas, often including building clinics and schools as well as adding class- commuting long distances to do whatever jobs were allowed rooms. Because of the 15-year disruption in black-urban educa- them. The result was not only injustice but structural distor-tion, this need is one of the most pressing. Other problems will tions in the economy. take longer to solve: training teachers, offering blacks an educa- The inequalities between the different groups are vast: pertion equal to what whites have had, and establishing vocational capita income of South Africa's 5 million whites is almost 10schools. In the short term, the private sector especially can un- times that of the 28.3 million Africans, 4.5 times that of thedertake training programs in cooperation with labor unions, 3.3 million Coloureds and 3 times that of the 1 million Asians.upgrading the work force in its own and its employees' interest. Nearly 50% of the employable work force in the formal Reorienting South Africa's economy from dependence on min- economy are without jobs, and they are overwhelmingly black eral exports and increasingly toward the export of manufactured (by comparison, 8% of the white work force is unemployed ). goods is also critical to future growth. Policies to implement Half the blacks who can work are not in the formal economy.this goal can complement those that redress social and eco- And only 3% of those who finish school are now finding jobs. nomic inequities. A revived and expanding economy is critical South Africa's per capita gross domestic product, stagnant in to promoting political stability, curbing violence and labor un- the second half of the 1970s, declined in the 1980s, with popu-rest, and ending capital flight in a new South Africa. lation growth outstripping economic growth. At this critical Interviewed in June 1993, the finance minister, Derek Keys, time, real income continues declining for blacks, but it is alsosaid, "We need to reinvent society in the same way as it was falling for whites, who enjoyed full employment until 1985. reinvented with the empowerment of the Afrikaner in the Blacks are experiencing what Bob Tucker, a South African1930s." But this time it cannot be at the expense of any segment economic activist, calls "aggravated relative deprivation." Col-of the population, and the nation's land, wealth and opportuni- liding with rising expectations, this reality poses dangers toties will have to be redistributed far more equitably than when black political leadership and the transition itself. And it aggra-blacks were excluded 60 years ago. South Africa will need all vates whites' apprehension that if violence increases, their stan-its people's creativity and goodwill to succeed with justice and dard of living will decline further. to benefit the country as a whole. Never has it been clearer that Mandela joined de Klerk in asking for foreign investment,South Africans share a single destiny: there can be no prosper- but investmentdomestic or foreignwill not be forthcomingity for any group without the prosperity of all. 22 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 25 SOUTH AFRICA

What bedeviled successful negotia- ZIMBABWE/ tions, according to Ottaway, was that oft "behind the barrage of confusing ver- VENDA biage that gave the illusion of progress, BOTSWANA 4 5. GAZA`KUtU the parties remained rooted in their initial TRA SVA At positions, convinced that in the end they NAMIBIA 0 could obtain what they wanted and avoid 411 lt(EgGwANE ss.KWA a compromise." They also disagreed fun- X15 Li-Pretoria to damentally on what was to be negotiated, 9t0,4:,1 Soweto Johannesburg Sharpevill on the timetable for transition and on the sAUL NO institutions that would function during it. Furthermore, the presumption on the ORANGE '01.1---"""-.70,1_ part of both the ANC and the National FREE STATE. :: v /1611,6\1- party that only they mattered to the out- ( come did not encourage other parties in Atlantic LESOT 0 e the negotiationslet alone those opting Ocean CAPE PROVINCE 'urban to remain outsideto support either side. Thus the two were alternately lone an- tagonists or lone partners instead of coa- TRANSKEI Robben island 0' . Indian lition-builders for the future. SOUTH AFRICA Ocean ISKEi Boipatong massacre Cape Town ro rho The ANC broke off the talks in June 1992 Cape of Good Hope following a massacre in Boipatong, a Port-Elizabeth. township south of Johannesburg where 0 Miles 300 many ANC supporters lived and where more than 40 died at the hands of neighboring Inkatha migrant laborers, who Shaded areas represent the 13% lived in single-sex hostels. The ANC of land designated as black charged police complicity and held the homelands. None of the homelands was internationally recognized. to government responsible. A scandal a year before, dubbed Inkathagate, had exposed government and police support of Inkatha, confirming what the ANC had long maintained. It saw the Boipatong events asfounding principle. ANC leaders in the past for South Africa's first universal suffrage further proof of that collaboration. had included Zulu as well as Xhosa (andelections. The Inkatha Freedom party and The collapse of the negotiations sur-Sotho and others), notably 1960 Nobelthe Conservative party walked out of the prised no one. De Klerk had securedPeace Prize winner Chief Albert Lutuli. talks in protest. through a referendum in March an over- In the wake of Inkathagate, in Sep- In drafting the principles to be incor- whelming white mandate for his negoti-tember 1991, the government, the ANC porated in a new South African constitu- atingposition, which bolsteredhisand others held a National Peace Confer- tion, the negotiators had to resolve dis- party's confidence that it could imposeence to devise a code of conduct to pre-agreements about fundamentals. How to the outcome it wished. This in turn com-vent violence and machinery for investi- protect the rights of minorities was one; pounded the suspicions and tensions gen- gating and diminishing it. Violence con- another was whether and to what extent erated in the talks. Meanwhile blacks in tinued, and given the mounting anger, the government should be centralized. thetownships were directingtheirfrustration and bitterness in the monthsPositions taken grew out of the history of mounting rage not only at governmentthat followed the events at Boipatong, itapartheid: the ANC saw the issue of mi- and police targets but even the ANCwas something of a miracle that the con-nority rights as a National-party- Inkatha leadership for its willingness to negotiate. stitutional negotiations resumed. effort to curtail again the power of the South Africa's hopes were being The negotiatorsinthe renewedong-oppressed majority and to preserve dashed by the stagnant economy andtalksno longer called Codesatackled some "homelands." As long as minorities mounting violence. Like the earliertheir task with fresh realism and serious- were defined in "group" terms, the ANC KwaZulu-Natal-based attacks and coun- ness. All recognized that neither the dete- saw unacceptable continuity with apart- terattacks between members of Inkathariorating economy nor the endemic vio-heid doctrine. Yet ANC and other demo- and the UDF, it was a struggle for power. lence could be reversed without progress crats have long recognized the need to Observers called it tribal warfareZulutoward a political settlement. protect against tyranny of the majority. vs. Xhosa. Some claimed that it demon- Despite an armed attack by theNegotiations produced basic agreement strated enduring ethnic divisions, with all Afrikaner Resistance Movement on the on an ANC-proposed bill of rights to en- Zulu favoring the Inkatha Freedom partysite of the talks in June 1993, the delega- sure such protection for all, but as indi- and all Xhosa, the ANC. This ignored nottions worked on transitional arrangements viduals, not groups. Agreement also fol- only present ANC membership but its and, in July, set April 27, 1994, as the date lowed on proportional representation in 26 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 23 I0IIC 7 SOUTH AFRICA the legislature so that all voices would be Parliament passed the Transitional Ex-participate in the multiparty negotiations heard. ecutive Council enabling legislation,by the IFP and the white right, which The form of the future governmentMandela asked the world, in a historicalong with some of the homeland proved even more challenging. Southaddress at the UN, to lift economic sanc- partieshad formed the Freedom Alli- Africa appears to be an excellent candi- tions. F.W. de Klerk, the first South Afri-ance in October 1993. Whether they date for federal arrangements, given itscan head of state to enter the UN, camewould come to realize that staying out size and diversity. Here again, however,to plead the same cause. of the process will marginalize and di- the legacy of apartheid skewed the issue. The 1993 Nobel Peace Prize wasminish, not enhance, their hopes of hav- "One man, one vote in a unitary state" awarded to them jointly in recognition ofing a role in the new government was had long been an opposition cry. It meanttheir courage in seizing the historic mo-not certain. that South Africa must be one indivisiblement despite mutual distrust. Among the steps being considered to country reincorporating the homelands. lessen violence is the creation of a na- For that reason, compromise on the issue Election challenges tional peacekeeping force. Its duties, not of federalism was more difficult than itThe November 17 watershed agreementyet precisely defined, would be, first, to might otherwise have been. on a postelection interim constitutionensure as peaceful an election as pos- Those favoring federal arrangementsdoes not eliminate dangers in the months sible. Because blacks have no confidence included people who believed that in leading to the election. The most seriousin the South African police or the armed South Africa there should be checks on is violence; it has claimed almost 10,000forces, there is urgent need to create a re- the central government. They also recog- victims in the last three years.The graph liable and credible force, responsible to nized a worldwide trend away from cen- of political violence, observers note, hascivilian authority and composed of expe- tralized power. But advocates of federal-spiked whenever there was progress to-rienced personnel and trainees proposed ism also included whites who wantedward democracy. Announcement of theby the various parties. Accomplishing continued dominance in "their" areas andelection date brought one surge, andthat in a very short time is a daunting Africans who wanted to maintain someagreement on the Transitional Executivetask. The immediate challenge will be to semblance of "homeland" existence andCouncil, another. The optimistic viewidentify and integrate successfully those power. Among those favoring federal ar- holds that, though violence is bound towho come from suspect government ser- rangements were the National party andrise as elections approach, as soon as thevices and homeland police forces with Inkatha; on this issue the ANC was thenational unity government has beenthose from liberation armies. one making concessions. What it will notelected, it will be able to reverse the The reintegration of several "indepen- accept are ethnically or racially definedtrend. dent" homelands and their participation geographic units. The negotiators eventu- Other dangers could also lead to vio-in the transition may pose another prob- ally agreed to reincorporate the home-lence and disruption. Organizations thatlem. Bophuthatswana and Ciskei con- lands and approved a nine-region maprefuse to participate in the process andtinue to offer resistance. The reason ap- for South Africa consisting of Pretoria-have their own political agendas may trypears to be power and, as is also the case Witwatersrand-Vereeniging, Northernto delay or derail the transition. Particu-with KwaZulu, they have appealed to Transvaal, Eastern Transvaal, KwaZulu/larly threatening was the refusal toethnic identity to rally support. Natal, Orange Free State, Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape and North West. Point of no return The U.S. In September came the long-hoped-for breakthrough: agreement on a Transi-and South Africa tional Executive Council, in which all negotiating parties will have a represen- AMERICANS HAVE ENTERED this decade by the U.S. and its allies) for a time made( tative and in which blacks for the first with a renewed commitment to athe U.S. relationship with the apartheid time will have an active role in makingforeign policy that fosters democracygovernment ambiguous. But under popu- or blockingpolicy. The council hasaround the world. Achieving this haslar pressure the Congress forced the U.S. oversight of the civil service, the budget, proved in many countries to be moreto impose economic sanctions in 1986. the police and the army and responsibil-complex than expected. The process in Whether one argues that sanctions had a ity for creating the all-important indepen-Africa has been accompanied as fre-good or bad effect (few argue now that dent electoral commission to run thequently by conflict as by harmoniousthey had no effect), all agree that they election and the independent media com-problem-solving. In some cases, super-contributedinsomemeasureto mission to assure equal media access forpower control for decades restrained im-apartheid's demise. all parties. The ease with which imple-pulses to both freedom and violence. But Under pressure from stockholders and menting legislation cleared the Parlia-in others, superpower competition bol- subsequently trade sanctions, the major- ment (despite a Conservative party walk-stered oppressive regimes and aggravated ity of American companies pulled out of out) made it clear to all that South Africapolarizing rivalries. South Africa, often amid heated argu- had, at last, reached the point of no return In South Africa, Eastern-bloc supportments about whether withdrawingand on its way to democracy. for the ANC and PAC (when recogni- abandoning efforts to integrate the work- On September 24, 1993, the day aftertion, let alone support, was denied themplace and provide social and educational 24 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 Tom- SOUTH AFRICA 7 benefits to their workerswould do more good than harm. DoingDcfetiOC; MOMSouthAfrica Following the establishment of the Companiescal] Transitional Executive Council and the Togo Non-equityllEcteK5 SouthAfrica South Africa call to lift sanctions by both Mandela and 500 50000 de Klerk, South Africans look to the U.S. Number of Companies Number of Companies to assist in their transition to nonracial democracy. 400 400 American policy is to help, however possible. The Clinton Administration and the Congress acknowledge that help is also in the U.S. interest. On the very day 300 300 that Mandela spoke at the UN, the U.S. Senate approved unanimously legislation to support the democratic transition. It 200 200 repeals most sanctions and provides for lifting the rest once the new government is installed after the April elections. 100 100r President Clinton signed the bill on No- vember 23. Further provisions of the bill call for 0 0 the U.S. to support the strengthening of 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 South African party and electoral ma- *Such as licensing or distribution agreements chinery and voter education, and to en- Source: Investor Responsibility Research Center Inc. courage banks and international financial institutions, especially the World Bank, to make available to South Africa sub-can counterparts. One important example Pro: Trade and investment will do stantialfundstohelprevivetheis the South Africa Free Elections Fund more than outside aid to revive the South economy. The Congress and the Presi-(SAFE), an organization calling on theAfrican economy. A 5% growth rate in dent also urged states, localities and pri- business community, foundations and in- South Africa's trade would yield $3 bil- vate institutions to rescind expeditiouslydividuals to raise $10 million to be usedlion a year, far more than any possible their own sanctions on South Africa. to educate the majority electorate. It isforeign assistance. The U.S. Agency for Internationalworking through people and organizations Con: South Africa's social needs are Development conducts an $80 millionin South Africa "with proven track records at least as pressing as its economic needs. bilateral assistance program for educa-of using and accounting for foreign con- The U.S. must take an active role to help tional and other projects and to help with tributions at the grass-roots level." South Africans achieve enough progress election preparations. U.S. assistance is to ensure that the democratic experiment restricted to nongovernmental activities U.S. policy options does not fail. and, in the case of political party training Although there is broad U.S. support for The U.S. is not responsible for and other education, excludes support ofSouth African democracy, there are dif-South Africa's democratic transition. political parties that have previously par- ferences over the nature of that help.If it fails and civil war breaks out, the ticipated in elections or that refuse to re-Among the options being debated: U.S. should do nothing. nounce violence. The U.S. government should provide Pro: In such a crisis, the U.S. should Of importance in utilizing U.S. aidgrants and loans to South Africa tomake no move, overt or covert: this have been nonprofit organizations, includ-jump-start the ailing economy and as-would be an internal matter for South ing the Washington, D.C.-based Nationalsist with socioeconomic reconstruction. Africans to resolve. Democratic Institute for International Pro: A strong infusion of outside aid Con: The U.S. should do all in its Affairs and the International Republicanfrom the U.S. and the rest of the interna-power to avert such an outcome. The Institute. Both have considerable experi- tional community is necessary to helpClinton Administration, the Congress, ence internationally in voter and political- South Africa mobilize its vast human andbusiness interests and nongovernmental party education and in election observa-physical resources and create a stable cli-organizations should do whatever they tion, and they are running joint, non-mate that will attract investors. can to assist South Africa's democratic partisan programs in South Africa. Con: The U.S. government can ill-transition. They should all, quietly if not With help from American and otherafford to provide economic aid at a timeopenly, make clear to South Africans that foreign donors, the number of domesticof pressing domestic needs. What help isparticipating in the election, accepting nongovernmental organizations active inforthcoming must come from the U.S.the results and building a South Africa South Africa is large, their outreach isprivate sector and from abroad. free of political violence are of the varied and their efforts are central. This The U.S. government should en-greatest importance at home and abroad. provides Americans in the private sectorcourage trade and investment, but its And any who threaten this outcome must with many opportunities (apart from busi- role should be limited to that of aknow that, should they persist, they will ness ventures) to work with South Afri-facilitator. be denied international support. o. 28 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 25 TOPIC 2 SOUTH AFRICA government, business or voluntary ef- precipitating large-scale emigration of forts? Should the priority be on voter skilled whites who are needed to imple- DISCUSSHON education or economic reconstruction? ment economic development?

MOM 3. If some political parties or groups in 5. Will the Bill of Rights and the consti- South Africa refuse to accept the out-tutional court be enough to ensure the 1. Is there a domestic political interest income of the April election, what steps white minority protection against a back- the U.S. in the successful transition tocould or should the U.S. take? Would the lash by the black majority for their past democracy in South Africa? In whatmost effective and appropriate responsedeprivation of human rights? ways would a stable democracy there af-be bilateral or multilateral, or no response fect the U.S.? at all? 6. Is educational reform an area where the U.S. can make a contribution in 2. What role can the U.S. play to assist a 4. How can a more equitable distribution South Africa? Could there be a role for successful transition to democracy in of wealth from the white minority to thethe Peace Corps in supplying teachers or South Africa? Should the emphasis be on whole community be achieved without filling other needs?

Room 4238, Department of State, Washington, D.C. 20520.

wakorwes AND Ottaway, Marina, South Africa: The Struggle for a New Or- CD-U RCES der. Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1993. 250 pp. $14.95 (paper). Describes the first phase of South Africa's political transition from 1990 to 1992. Benson, Mary, Nelson Mandela: The Man and the Move- ment. New York, Norton, 1986. 273 pp. $8.95 (paper). A long-Thompson, Leonard B., A History of South Africa. New Ha- time friend writes about Mandela's life and his role in the Afri-ven, Conn., Yale University Press, 1992. 352 pp. $15.00 (pa- can National Congress. per). One of the foremost historians of South Africa begins with prehistory and ends with apartheid in crisis. Lelyveld, Joseph, Move Your Shadow: South Africa, Black and White. New York, Times Books, 1985. 384 pp. $18.95. AFRICA FUND,1948 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10038; (212) Former New York Times bureau chief in South Africa makes962-1210.Since 1966, the Africa Fund has worked for an in- South Africa come alive. formed U.S. policy toward southern Africa, publicizing and aiding victims of apartheid and political injustice. Publishes sev- Lodge, Tom, and Nasson, Bill, et al., All, Here, and Now:eral periodicals, with other information available. Black Politics in South Africa in the 1980s (South Africa UPDATE Series). New York, Ford Foundation-Foreign Policy AFRICAN-AMERICAN INSTITUTE,833 United Nations Plaza, New Association, 1991. 414 pp. $12.95 (paper). Appends key docu- York, N.Y. 10017; (212) 949-5666.The African-American ments and interviews. In the same series see Robert Schrire,Institute seeks to foster development in Africa, primarily Adapt or Die: The End of White Politics in South Africathrough strengthening its human resources, and to promote (1991. 247 pp. $10.95, paper). mutual understanding between Americans and Africans. Publi- cations include Africa Report (4/year). MacLeod, Scott, "South Africa on the Edge," The New York Review of Books,. February 11, 1993. pp. 24-29. Time's bu- AFRICAN GOVERNANCE PROGRAM,The Carter Center, Emory reau chief in South Africa details F.W. de Klerk's political his-University, 1 Copen Hill, Atlanta, GA 30307; (404) 420-5186. tory, outlook, goals for his party and approach to governing. Seeks to provide a forum for issues of management, development and governance in Africa. Publications include Africa Mandela, Nelson, "South Africa's Future Foreign Policy." For-Demos, published bimonthly. eign Affairs, November/December 1993, pp. 86-97. AFRICAN STUDIES CENTER,Boston University, 270 Bay State Rd., Marx, Anthony W., Lessons of Struggle: South African In-Boston, Mass. 02215; (617) 353-7306. African Outreach Pro- ternal Opposition, 1960-1990. New York, Oxford Universitygram; (617) 353-7303/3673. Recognized as a national re- Press, 1992. 384 pp. $16.95 (paper). Sets the history of largelysource center by the U.S. Department of Education, the studies black opposition in its several ideological frameworks. center is committeed to teaching, research and publications on Africa. African Outreach Program provides information, mate- Mkhondo, Rich, Reporting South Africa. Portsmouth, N.H.,rials and services to schools, libraries, museums, the media and Heinemann, 1993. 194 pp. $13.95 (paper). Reuters' South Af- community groups. rica correspondent covers events from 1990-93. WASHINGTON OFFICE ON AFRICA,110 Maryland Ave. NE, Suite Moose, George E., A copy of the September 30, 1993,112, Washington, DC 20002. Established in 1972 as an testimony by the assistant secretary for African affairs beforeantiapartheid organization, it encourages U.S. policies that pro- the subcommittee on Africa of the House Foreign Affairs Com-mote political justice in Africa. It publishes Washington Notes mittee is available from the Office of South African Affairs,on Africa (3/year) and has speakers available. 26 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 29 EAST BLOC'S CRISIS guaranteeing comprehensive environmental protection, the effect was minimal. The powerful and autonomous production ministries thwarted efforts at coordina- Environmental crisis in tion, and when fines were imposed for violations of environmental regulations, former Soviet bloc: whose the ministries simply passed the costs back to the government. In effect, the state gave back with one hand what it took away with problem? who pays? the other. "Instead of serving as a referee between polluters and conservationists," Soviet expert Marshall Goldman of What are the prospects for overcoming environmentalWellesley College observed, "the state problems at least as serious as those the U.S. and Europe[was] the manufacturer." Monitoring of the environment was experienced 30 years ago? also very weak, and even when significant data were available, they often were by William Sweet not released. Ze' ev Wolfson, a former Soviet environmental dissident who published a pioneering exposé of the situation in the U.S.S.R., compared "Socialist nature" to a "lady of the very highest principles." In both cases, "she never ex- poses herself to strangers." Environmental activism Wolfson wrote The Destruction of Na- ture in the Soviet Union under the pen name of Boris Komarov, and it was published in the samizdat (underground) press in 1978. At that time he was a voice in the wilderness. A campaign to protect Lake Baykal, a huge freshwater body of pristine purity in remote Siberia, was launched in the 1960s (and continues today), but this was an apple-pie issue, at fairly safe remove from the U.S.S.R.'s THE LENIN STEEL WORKSin Magnitogorsk, built in the heyday of Stalin's industrialization drive,industrial and agricultural jugulars. is now part of the Russian rust belt. It pollutes an area twice the size of Delaware. Much closer to the capital was the campaign launched in the early 1980s to pre- URING SOVIET RULE, the environ- the new Soviet nation had passed lawsvent erection of a 28-kilometer-long dike ment stirred an odd mix ofregulating land, timber, wildlife, fish andsystem in the harbor of Leningrad (now passionsarrogance, reverencewater. Yet these remained for the mostagain St. Petersburg) to prevent periodic and scientific curiosity. A brutally domi-part dead letters, and by the early 1930sflooding. After the first barriers went up neering attitude toward the physical and the environment was falling prey to col-in 1984, they caused a 60% reduction in biological environment coexisted uneas- lectivization and breakneck industrializa-the flow of saltwater into the harbor, a ily with a reverence for Mother Nature, tion. A chronic and well-founded senseblossoming of blue-green algae to six rooted in Slavic traditions, and a scien- of emergencyworld war, civil war, for-times the normal level, and a buildup of tific interest in understanding ecologicaleign intervention, Hitler-style fascism,nitrates, phosphorus, heavy metals and systems. The utopian mission of creatingmore world war, the atomic bomb, cold biological contaminants. Much of this a new and more just society on the basiswarall kept the lieutenants of Soviet pollution was deposited in the harbor by of subjugating nature resulted finally indictator Joseph Stalin firmly convinced the river Neva, which passes through St. widespread damage to the environment.that one couldn't make an omelette with- Petersburg picking up waste from the city Yet, paradoxically, the Soviets were alsoout breaking some eggs, to quote former and some 500 factories. among the first to propose setting asidePremier Nikita S. Khrushchev. The campaign to save St. Petersburg's natural preserves for conservation and Stalin's system of production quotas,harbor was coordinated by an organiza- research, as Murray Feshbach and Alfredto be achieved regardless of human or Friendly Jr. note in Ecocide in theenvironmental costs, far outlived the ty- VVILLIAM SWEEThas been a staff writer for U.S.S.R.: Health and Nature Under Siege. rant. And so, in the late 1950s and early Physics Today, a monthly magazine published by the American Institute of Physics, for 10 Communist leader Vladimir Lenin en- 1960s, when the Soviet government years. He writes primarily about nuclear arms dorsed the idea of preserves, and by 1920 started passing legislation supposedly control, science and the environment. GREAT DECISIONS 199427 30 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS tion called Delta. Initially it met with talists won in 17 of the 37 races they en-hundreds of square miles. The world's sharp repression, but it since has forcedtered in Odessa; 16 Ecology Club mem- worst civilian nuclear accident, its conse- the city government to halt construction,bers won all their races in Volgograd. quences were felt far beyond Soviet pending further analyses of the dam's In the former Czechoslovakia, Charterborders. And because of Gorbachev's impact on local water quality. Mean-77, which spearheaded the independence glasnost policy, the government could not while, the city's drinking water has goneand human-rights movements, publishedkeep the accident secret. The repercus- from bad to worse and recently was de-a number of important samizdat reportssions soon went further than any Soviet scribed by a correspondent for Toronto'son the environment in the 1980s, includ-leader would have liked, feeding separat- Globe and Mail as "always smelly anding a major study done by the country'sist and nationalist longings in Ukraine, sometimes brown." The correspondentacademy of sciences. In Hungary, theBelarus, Lithuania and Kazakhstan. reported that most children in St. Peters- "environmental movement was the van- As revolution swept the whole Soviet burg are believed to suffer from skin al-guard of the organized opposition thatbloc, economic crises and political issues lergies as a result of the contaminationtoppled the country's Communist re-loomed so large they eclipsed the envi- and most foreigners who drink the watergime," in the estimation of one scholar.ronment, and it was unclear whether en- get sick. "Mass protest against [Hungary's] Nagy-vironmentalism was destined to have a A more successful environmental ini-maros Dam was instrumental in the major impact in the newly emerged soci- tiative was a massive letter and petitiondevelopment of an effective political eties or whether its role was merely cata- drive organized in 1986 by scientists. Itopposition," another says. lytic. By mid-1991, it appeared that envi- persuaded the government to shelve Throughout the Soviet bloc, environ-ronmental politics had become sub- plans to divert several northward-flowingmental issues and disasters came to lightmerged in the general political opposi- Siberian rivers to provide irrigation for as a result of the opening that was takingtion, and "reforms in health and ecology the cotton fields of the Central Asian replace but they also served as occasions foradministration became a sideshow to the publics. And in 1987 a grass-roots move- further opening, mass mobilization andmain event," according to Feshbach and ment killed a big dam project in Latvia. democratization. The most dramatic caseFriendly. One reason the future of envi- By that time Soviet Premier Mikhail in point was the explosion at the Cherno-ronmentalism was so uncertain was that S. Gorbachev's campaigns for glasnostbyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine inthe complexity of the situation far sur- (openness) and perestroika (economic 1986, which forced the evacuation of tenspassed that in the advanced industrial restructuring) were in full swing, and mili- of thousands of people and contaminatedcountries and in the Third World. tant environmental protests were becoming almost matter of course all over the country. In Volgograd (then Stalingrad), plans for a pesticide plant in the Red Army Defining the crisis district prompted an organizing effort in 1987 that soon turned broadly political. THEU.S.S.R. finally established an Despite meager resources, the Soviet Protests in Krasnoyarsk in far-off south- environmental ministry, Goskom- government produced some studies in its ern Siberia in 1989 won postponement ofpriroda, in 1988. Grossly underfunded,final years that began to come to terms a plan to reprocess spent reactor fuels. In understaffed and faced with daunting prob- with the environmental crisis facing the May 1990, 10,000 miners in the Donbaslems, its first chief, Fyodor Morgun, lastedcountry, though they may in some cases region struck when toxic gases seepingonly 15 months. The second, Nikolai have been based on questionable scien- into a coal mine caused casualties amongVorontsov, a highly regarded biologisttific methods. A study by the Ministry of workers. And at Semipalatinsk, protestand the first non-Communist to hold aPublic Health, for example, found corre- againstradioactivepollutionfromministerial position, lasted somewhatlations between fertilizer production and nuclear-weapons testing prompted thelonger. The current minister is Viktorcertain cancers and blood and cardiovas- Kazakh government to ban further under- Danilov-Danilyan. Russia's Presidentcular diseases; between nonferrous-metal ground testing there in 1991. Boris N. Yeltsin also has an environmen-production and skin diseases and child- tal and health counselor, Alexei Yablokov,hood cancers; between pesticides and Political environmentalism a respected specialist with an independentdeath and disease rates for children. By 1990 the movement to clean up thereputation.Yablokov and Danilov- In Eastern Europe, visitors to the environment had turned overtly politicalDanilyan, as well as their European coun-former German Democratic Republic in much of Eastern Europe and the Soviet terparts, face a formidable task. often were struck most by the noxious Union, and it was feeding the processes that would lead to the dissolution first of GLOSSARY the Soviet bloc* (see glossary) and then of the Soviet state itself. Although gov- EUROPEAN COMMUNITY (EC):Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, ernments initially viewed environmental Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain. activism as relatively nonsubversive, ac- GROUP OF SEVEN:Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and U.S. tivists increasingly considered the political system itself the ultimate source of SOVIET BLOC (1949-91):Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and

ecological damage. Thus, when the first Soviet Union. The Soviet Union has been replaced by 15 independent republics: I freely contested elections in Soviet his- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, tory were held in 1989-90, environmen- Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. 28 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 .-DPI ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

fumes emitted by the Trabant and containment that allows small increments

Wartburg cars, which burned a mixture of excess pressure to lift the reactor's lid. q of oil and gasoline and lacked any kind The second type of reactor manufac- 6 of emission-control devices. The Bunatured in the U.S.S.R., the VVER, more chemical plant in the East German city ofclosely resembles the pressurized water ,''' Halle was found to be discharging 20 ki-reactors standard in the U.S., France and - rge lograms of mercury a day-10 times asGermany. The VVERs also have been .. much as a comparable plant in Westfound to suffer from many design and ,, - Germany's chemical-infested Ludwigs-construction inadequacies, and the older . / hafen, itself no environmental Eden, dis-versions have been determined to be charged in a year. When the Germanys grossly defective. ,,1 \j',4-1:1, united, East Germany's one reactor corn- In addition to the RBMKs still operat-

plex was immediately shut down by theing at Chernobyl, RBMK reactors are 1> federal German nuclear authorities. also in use near St. Petersburg in Russia, t 1 In the Bulgarian industrial town ofand in Lithuania. VVER 230s, an older ,, , Kuklen, children were found to have so model considered almost as defective as '4 t much lead in their blood that they wouldthe RBMK, operate in Slovakia, in Bul- , have been immediately rushed to a hospi-garia, and in Russia. K tal in the U.S. for emergency treatment, The consensus among reactor experts according to an American toxicologist. outside the former Soviet bloc is that all ''' A reporter for The New York Timesthe Chernobyl-type reactors should be , ,-_-__dt....- % visited a Romanian town, Copsa Mica,permanently closed as soon as possible Ili,. rt ' where "every growing thing in this once- and that the VVERs should be shut down AFTER THE CHERNOBYLaccident, a worker in gentle valley look[ed] as if it [had] beenor substantially upgraded. The optimala market in Kiev, Russia, checks produce for dipped in ink" as a result of a plant in the and cheaper course of action, accordingpossible radiation before it can be sold to the town that produced black powder used into the latest outside assessment, would be public. manufacturing rubber. to turn off as many reactors as possible rather than fix them, and undertake en- 1957, an enormous chemical explosion Nuclear reactors ergy conservation or install new,'highlyspread intensely radioactive materials One of the more urgent environmentalefficient gas turbines to produce neededover a large area but it remained a deep problems facing the new political au-energy. However, government officials secret until it was discovered by the dissi- thorities in the former Soviet republicsdo not believe they can do withoutdent scientist Zhores Medvedev and de- and Eastern Europeand certainly onenuclear-generated electricity, and upgrad- scribed in his book, The Nuclear Disaster that is of greatest concern to West Euro-ing the nuclear reactors would cost tensin the Urals (New York, Norton, 1979), peansis a direct by-product of theof billions of dollars. Foreign aid on that20 years later. A second took place in Chernobyl catastrophe. Though the So-scale has so far not been forthcoming. 1967 at Lake Karachay, where materials viet leadership tried to blame the accidentTherefore, it is likely that the former So-with roughly 25 times the total radioac- solely on errors by the plant's operators,viet and East European governments willtive content of the Chernobyl debris had who were put on trial, convicted andadopt none of the recommended strate-been dumped over a period of decades. jailed, independent studies done outside gies and instead settle for makeshift rem-Evaporation caused by a drought that the Soviet bloc quickly determined thatedies that keep millions of people seri- year left highly reactive dusts exposed, the reactor design itself was seriouslyously at risk. In October 1993, the Ukrai- which winds suddenly blew into the sur- defectiveso defective that a similar re-nian government announced it wouldrounding area, subjecting people as far as actor would never have been licensed incontinue to operate the undamaged50 miles away to serious levels of radia- any other advanced industrial country. Chernobyl units, despite earlier promisestion. U.S. visitors to the site in 1990 The Chernobyl-type RBMK reactorto close them. found radiation levels at the edge of the somewhat resembles the first plants con- Much less is known about the radioac-lake high enough to supply a lethal dose structed in the U.S. to produce plutoniumtive hazards associated with the formerto a human in an hour. for nuclear weapons. It almost certainly U.S.S.R.'s nuclear weapon-making com- Given the large size of the former So- was designed, at least in part, to provide plex, but what little is known suggestsviet nuclear arsenal, the desperation and the U.S.S.R. with a fallback plutonium-that the dangers are even worse thaneven recklessness with which it was as- producing capacity in addition to that in those connected with power reactors.sembled, and the carelessness of general its bomb-making complex. Among theThere have been numerous disclosuresenvironmental practices in the U.S.S.R., RBMK's main defects are a "positiveduring the past two years, for example, it seems safe to conclude that the cost of void coefficient," meaning that in certain that the U.S.S.R. disposed of radioactivesatisfactorily dismantling the Soviet operating regimes its energy increaseswastes and reactors from submarines atbomb complex will be even greater than with loss of water and higher tempera-seaa situation that outside experts arewhat the U.S. expects to spend on its tures; poorly designed control rods thatjust beginning to evaluate. complex. That job, which is still afflicted are too slow and, in the event of emer- Two major accidents have occurred atwith intractable technical and political gency insertion, initially add rather thana facility producing material for nuclearproblems, is expected to cost upward of subtract energy; and a poorly designedwarheads near Chelyabinsk, in Russia. In$200 billion. 32 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 29 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS 3 become swimmable again. Fish began to Aral Sea: the ultimate horror reappear in the Moscow River in the late OTHER INLAND WATERS such as the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov havesuffered 1970s. similar abuse, but it is the Aral Sea that stands out as the former Soviet Union's worst water-mismanagement debacle. Diversion of water to Central Asia forintense Soil and forests irrigation of cotton fields depleted the rivers that fed the sea. Over a number of de- With some exceptions, the degradation of cades the seaoriginally larger than Lake Huronshrank by two thirds. In 1989 itland and losses of biological resources actually separated into two lakes. Because of the chronic overuse of pesticides, defo- probably are not worse in Eastern Europe liants and fertilizers, toxic runoff has contaminated rivers running into the sea, includ-than in the OECD countries, according to ing important sources of drinking water. Winds have carried mineral salts from thetheir magazine. The situation may be exposed seabed to fertile fields up to a thousand miles away. High rates of typhoid, worse in the former Soviet states where, cholera, hepatitis and cancer of the digestive system as well as high infant mortality,"by unhappy coincidence, the major pol- have been registered among inhabitants along its shores. lution sources...are located in agricultural areas," as a writer for the World- Water quality lakes appears to be even worse than thewatch Institute in Washington, D.C., One of the intrinsically unfortunate as-situation which the U.S. Great Lakesnoted. "The worst culprits are the metal- pects of nuclear energy, from an environ- were in a generation ago. The Black Sea,lurgical centers." mental point of view, is that reactorfed by the Danube, Dnister, Dnieper, One happy side effect of economic plants require copious amounts of cool-Don and Kuban, has been deemed bystagnation and underconsumption in the ing water and therefore almost all areWorld Bank officials to be one of theformer Soviet bloc has been the relatively situated on major water arteries. In the world's most polluted bodies of water. Alow use of packaging and containers, ac- event of a meltdown, the imminent dan- local joke has it that the famous sanitari-cording to Soviet analyst D.J. Peterson of ger is that huge amounts of radiation willums in the Crimea should be renamedthe RAND/UCLA Center for Soviet immediately enter water systems, render- "crimatoria." The Black Sea has beenStudies in Santa Monica. It is safe to say ing them unusable for possibly thousandscontaminated by untreated wastes from that household wastes have taken a much of years. The violent explosionatcities on the Turkish coast; poorly treatedsmaller toll on the environment there Chernobyl dispersed 80 million curies ofwastes from cities like Odessa, Rostov,than in any of the advanced industrial radiation over the entire globe, but ironi-Constanta and Miropol; by fertilizers andcountries. The flip side of that coin, how- cally a less "catastrophic" meltdown pesticides from all the littoral countries;ever, is that as economic growth resumes might have sent the whole radioactiveall kinds of industrial pollutants from oiland a much larger consumer culture de- load downriver to the Black Sea. refining, chemical and metallurgicalvelops, the burden will become greater. The condition of waterways in theplants, pulp and paper mills and coal; and There probably is no satisfactory in- former Soviet bloc is bad enough, with-discharges from boats. Upstream dams ventory at the present time of hazardous out conjuring up such nightmare sce-have reduced flushing action, which hastoxic waste dumps in the former Soviet narios. Yablokov recently told a leadingled to increased salinization and eu-republics. But judging from the situation French science magazine, La Recherche, trophication from fertilizers and domestic in what was East Germany, where Ger- that 75% of Russia's surface water issewage, including detergents. Betweenman authorities have identified 15,000 dangerous to drink and that 50% of the 1986 and 1992, the fish catch from the such sites requiring evaluation, the num- country's drinking water is substandard.Black Sea decreased from 900,000 tons ber is sure to be very large. The Volga river in Russia, slowed byto 100,000 tons. Historically, the greatest damage to some 10 major dams and reservoirs, is Serious water problems are to be found soils and forests has been the result of reported to be "a turgid stream." The throughout the former Soviet sphere. Yetoverly ambitious development policies. Dnister, the chief source of drinking wa-the situation is not entirely grim. SomeIn the 1950s, Khrushchev's virgin-lands ter for Odessa, is said to be contaminatednatural habitats in parts of Eastern Europeprogram to put into cultivation 100 mil- with agricultural chemicalssix timesare better preserved than in Western Eu-lion acres of marginal land in Kazakhstan above prescribed limitsfrom farms inrope, La Recherche reported, because ofled to a tripling of harvests, but reckless Ukraine and Moldova. somewhat less intense utilization of wa-development caused wanton erosion. By Yablokov has been especially criticalterways. And, it noted, especially in Hun- the early 1960s, according to a recent ar- of the overuse of pesticides and thegary and Russia, there is a large commu- ticle in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scien- building of big dams, although he does nity of hydrology experts. The first hydro- tists, half the virgin lands had been foresee a role for small ones. He islogical atlas for Europe was published, inruined or severely damaged. "Millions of quoted in La Recherche assaying,fact, in the U.S.S.R. hectares of the Kazakhstan steppe, the "Calculations show that the value of all "The Danube and the Tisza in Hungary grand Central Asian prairie, were plowed the electric energy produced by one ofare significantly cleaner [as of the mid-for wheat fields. Irreplaceable natural theoldestelectricstationsonthe 1980s] of faecal bacteria than the Rhinepasturesweredestroyed."Though Volgathat of Rybinskis many timesin the Netherlands or the Tejo in Portu-Kazakhstan became one of the U.S.S.R.'s smaller than the benefit one would havegal," according to an article published byprincipal domestic sources of wheat, its obtained from the sale of agricultural the Organization for Economic Coopera-fields produced a worthwhile harvest products grown on the lands of the plaintion and Development (OECD), andonly about a third of the time. This was flooded." Hungary's Lake Balaton, the largest fresh-only partly due to frequent droughts. The quality of Russia's huge inlandwater lake in Eastern Europe, has recently The decision to turn most of the land 30 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 33 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

over to growing cotton in Uzbekistan ledinto barren landscapes and a significantsions of sulfur dioxide were about two to similar results there as well as in theproportion of the evergreens may be per-and half times those in the U.S. But the neighboring regions of Turkmenistan and manently lost. Cedar forests in theU.S.S.R., with one tenth as many cars as Kazakhstan. "While a corrupt party elitePrimorskiy and Khabarovsk regions ofthe U.S., and half the gross national prod- waxed rich off mythical cotton [or, as weRussia have been reduced more thanuct, still produced about the same total say in the U.S., 'king cotton']," Feshbach 20% by clearing in the last 20 years. quantity of air pollutants. (Soviet mea- and Friendly report, "the real crop was surement practices probably ledto ravaging the land." Air pollution undercounts of the amount of pollution Among other things, the growth ofAir quality in the former Soviet bloc, likeperhaps by 30% to 50%.) wheat and cotton impoverished rural water quality, presents a complicated pic- In the Czech and Slovak republics, diets, while the wide use of defoliants toture that looks different depending onwhere about 60% of all energy comes ease harvesting and of pesticidespoints of reference. In the estimation offrom some 30 plants fired by dirty brown including the illegal but widespread use authors for the OECD Observer, qualitycoal with little or no emission-control of DDTdirectly threatened humanis very poor if judged by local standards,technology, sulfur dioxide and nitrous health and endangered other species. Be-but those often are stricter than the onesoxide combine in the air to create acid tween 1976 and 1983, use of pesticidesprevailing in OECD countries. If com-rain "of a virulency unknown in the U.S. grew 70% in the U.S.S.R., while itpared with worst situations in OECDand rivaled on the European continent dropped 60% in the U.S. countries, air quality seems a lot less dire.only in Poland," as a writer put it in The Other common abusive agriculturalThus, for smoke, ash and dust, PragueAmicus Journal, a magazine published practices have included heavy use of fer- and Bucharest are worse than Brussels orby the Natural Resources Defense Coun- tilizers such as phosphates, ammonia, ni- Frankfurt but better than Athens; for cil (NRDC) in New York. trites and chlorinated hydrocarbons, andsmoke, Budapest is one of the least pol- In Poland's Katowice region, with careless use of heavy equipment, leading luted cities in Europe, and Warsaw is bet-some 40 coal mines, use of hard coal for to compacting of soil and loss ofter than Madrid or Athens. domestic heating and industry puts large porousness, according to Peterson. Largely because of automobiles, emis- amounts of sulfur dioxide and dust into In forestry, as a result of continuous sions of nitrogen oxides in the U.S. werethe air. In northern Bohemia, where sul- and unrestrained harvesting, hundreds ofabout twice those in the U.S.S.R., ac-fur-dioxide emissions have exceeded thousands of acres in Siberia have turned cording to Peterson, while Soviet emis-standards one third of the time and some-

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 31 3 4 10PIC 3 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS times by several factors of ten, local resi-per Silesia, Czechoslovakia's Northernwhole country," the former Soviet bloc dents receive compensation known asBohemia, the southern provinces of east-was profligate with energy. The amount "burial money." ern Germany and the Ukraine's Donetsof energy the bloc countries used per unit Energy-inefficient open-hearth fur-Basin are today's equivalents of indus-of production was more than twice that naces account for over half of the steel trial areas such as the Ruhr or Pittsburghof the average OECD country. And this production in the former East-bloc coun- half a century ago," in the estimation ofcould not be attributed just to climate: the tries, which largely explains why sulfur-Stanley J. Kabala, a scholar at the Uni-Soviet bloc's usage was two-and-a-half dioxide emissions there continued to riseversity of Pittsburgh and author of the times that of Sweden or Finland per unit in the 1980s, even as they declined nearly World Bank's first major study of envi-of output. Poland'sto take an extreme 25% in Western Europe. "Poland's Up-ronmental problems in Poland. casewas five times that of the U.S., which is considered a wasteful country by many standards. And so, even without greater reliance Resources on nuclear energy, there ought in principle to be ample room for energy conservation in the Soviet-bloc countries. As a general and solutions rule more energy-efficient technology THE ENVIRONMENTAL problems con- clear for an infusion of capitalist technol- should also be cleaner technology and at fronting the new regimes in theogy, which undoubtedly will greatly has- the same time provide large economic former Soviet and East European nationsten and facilitate the exploitation of the payoffs as well as environmental benefits. and the costs of the environmentalmore inaccessible reserves. At the sameBut here again large amounts of capital cleanup are staggering. What special re-time, giant new fields have been discov- are needed, and at present it is unclear sources do they have at their disposal as ered in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea where that capital might come from. they attempt to find solutions? and in Kazakhstan. These are being ex- Generation of domestic savings will plored and developed by Chevron andof course depend on stabilization of the Energy reserves Elf Aquitaine, among others, as well aseconomy (above all defeating "hyper- Russia and a few of the other formerby Russian companies that officials hopeinflation"), the creation of a solid bank- Soviet states have inherited enormous en- will reduce dependence on outsiders. ing system and money markets, the energy reserves, most importantly oil and The Kazakh government purports to actment of laws that protect private prop- natural gas, and so energy policy willbe especially interested in the ecological,erty and especially productive invest- continue to be critical to the economic andtechnological and social aspects of agreement, and legislation that specifies liabil- environmental future of the successor-ments with the multinational oil compa-ity for past environmental damage and states. In the U.S.S.R., the energy sectornies, but as The Bulletin of the Atomic environmental cleanups that new private- absorbed 40% of industrial investment,Scientists recently put it, there is a "big sector owners of companies would incur. and fuels accounted for half of its exports difference between the government's In an analysis of the liability problem to its satellites, which were almost totallyclaim to be keeping an 'all-watchful eye' published by the Washington, D.C. dependent on it for oil and gas. over foreign trade and the real state ofbased Resources for the Future, in Janu- By the mid-1980s, Russia's most ac-Kazakhstan's economic climate." Whenary 1993, James Boyd recommended the cessible oil reserves had been exploited, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaevcreation of "liability pools" (somewhat and just when Gorbachev took office, oil with great fanfare called for heightenedlike the U.S. Environmental Protection production had begun to drop, giving risesurveillance of foreign companies in JuneAgency's Superfund for cleanup of toxic- to an acute sense of crisis. "How the state 1993, the writer noted that "sadly, the waste sites) rather than trying to assign li- kept alive, how it got from day to day,same initiative was announced [the yearability via litigation on the basis of newly was a mystery," says former Washingtonbefore] as well." awarded property rights. The former East Post correspondent David Remnick (with Conversion to natural gas and the ex- bloc economies "are not currently robust benefit of hindsight) in his acclaimedporting of natural gas present major op-enough to support large resource expen- Lenin's Tomb (New York, Randomportunities for Russia, which owns roughly ditures aimed at the resolution of legal House, 1993). "If not for the plunderingtwo fifths of known global reserves. Al- disputes," Boyd concluded. of Soviet oil fields and the worldwidemost all of Russia's gas is in remote The dire economic situation in the energy crisis, the economy might haveSiberia, however, and so large amounts offormer Soviet nations seems to be com- collapsed even before it did; and by the capital are needed for construction of eco-parable to the Great Depression in the early 1980s, KGB [Soviet secret police]logically sound pipelines and storage fa-U.S. in the 1930s and is, as Boyd takes reports declared that the cushion of oil cilities. Capital also is needed for conver- into account, the major constraint on profits was all but gone....The economy sion of domestic power plants, productionremediationproposals.John Edwin was doomed." Coincidentally, the coal offacilities and home furnaces. Mroz, president of the Institute for East- the Don river basin also was nearly ex- West Studies, reported in Foreign Affairs hausted, and the plentiful Siberian re-Conservation and stabilization ( America and the World 1992-93) that serves were difficult to access. Conservation offers even greater eco- Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) With the collapse of the U.S.S.R. and nomic benefits. Proceeding from the fa- in 1992 was 65% of its 1989 level and the liberalization of Russia and some ofmous principle that "Communism is So- that inflation was running at 1,300% per the other successor-states, the way isviet power plus electrificatibn of theyear. Industrial output was down nearly 32 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 35 0 IC ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS 3 30% and exports were off some 50% niques and tech- from the previous year. nologies. More- The situation in Ukraine may be even over, to the ex- . worse. There, total output dropped 30%tent that public in the two years from early 1991 to earlyhealth is consid- 1993alone, and the currency hasered an aspect of "collapsed." the overall environmental situa- Asset stripping tion, it should be There is the unsettling sense that Russia notedthatim- and the other successor-states are keep-provedagricul- ing themselves alive mainly by strippingtural production their assets and redistributing them. That will also lead to is the impression whether it is a questionmuch better gen- of mineral resources, Russia's space pro-eral nutrition as gram and the nuclear establishment, orpeoplegetthe art treasures and antiques from the czaristvegetablesthat era. AS MUCH AS 75%of the surface water in Russia is dangerous to drink In are often in shortNorilsk, engineers monitor the water quality. The situation is worst of course in the supply. countries where civil wars are taking place. Still, in agriculture as in industry, thetraditional practices such as the use of Take Armenia. A visitor reported in thetransition to private production is nothuge quantities of liquid manure from NRC Handelsblad of Rotterdam in early without its pitfalls for the environment.pig and chicken farms, and old-fashioned 1993 that one family, the Grigoryans, had Not every agricultural problem in the overgrazing. "spent last winter around a homemadeformer Soviet bloc could be attributed to Presented with the opportunity to make furnace and with 1,100 pounds of pota-the overuse of chemical fertilizers, pesti-a ruble for a change, it is not a foregone toes in the basement. They fed the furnacecides and defoliants or to the remote andconclusion that the Russian or Romanian with diesel oil that they had buried in big impersonal government production agen-farmer will always select the option that is cans under the house years back, 'just incies. A lot of damage also was caused byecologically most farsighted. case."' From all reports, the local impression is that in stripping and selling resources, whatever the asset, some "mafia" or an-A globalconcern other inevitably is the winner. It therefore needs to be emphasized that there also is THE ENVIRONMENTAL problems of the production still will not meet European something inevitable and necessary about former Soviet and East European na- Community (EC)* standards. But it is the the process, despite its excesses. The in- tions are of course not merely their prob-only plant of its kind in the country. dustrial sector as a whole, like the energylems. Together those countries account Yablokov told La Recherche that "the subsector, was overdeveloped in thefor about a quarter of global carbon-diox-egoism of the big ministries has disap- former Soviet-bloc countries. As a pro-ide emissions and contribute mightily topeared to a great extent but it has given portion of GDP, the industrial sector wasthe global warming threat. The East Eu-way to a local egoism. The centralization about twice as large as the service sector, ropean countries "export" roughly threeof the economy and the instability of re- whereas in the OECD countries the ratioquarters of their sulfur-dioxide emissions lations between the federal and regional is the opposite. And so, when one reads (though they also import a large share oforgans have had the effect that today lo- of how everybody in Russia is making athe sulfur dioxide that ends up in theircal authorities often make decisions that ruble selling something, and nobody is air).Thanks to Chernobyl, everybody ap-are advantageous for their region but putting any money into producing any-preciates the dangers another accidentdangerous for the rest of the country." On thing new, it is useful to remember thatwould pose for Western Europe. And na- the other hand, Kabala, an expert on the selling is the part of the economy thattional ecological treasures like LakeEast European countries, thinks "now most needs developing. Baykal are no more mere "national" pos- that they have regained full national sov- sessions than Niagara Falls or the Greatereignty, the countries of the region are Agricultural reform Barrier Reef. more inclined to cooperate with each In the agricultural sector, the obvious The very large, monopolistic indus-other than they were as 'fraternal allies' need is to reduce the collectivized share triesthat were characteristic of thein the Soviet sphere." and increase the scope for private owner- former Soviet bloc represent an espe- ship and production. This, together withcially difficult aspect of environmental Capital needs the end of artificially low prices for food, improvement. The company SpolchemieIn a meeting this writer held in early Oc- ought to provide a very considerablein the Czech Republic's Usti nad Labem,tober 1993 with a group of Russian envi- stimulus to production. At least in theory,for example, pollutes air and water with ronmental leaders visiting the U.S., the private ownership should also lead tomercury, chlorine and other highly toxic striking thing was that they were unani- more care for the land and greater interestchemicals. Even with planned improve-mous in calling, above all, for more pri- in ecologically sound agricultural tech-ments over a five-year period, half itsvate investment in ecologically sound 36 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 33 I OP IC ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS 3 projects in Russia. This was not a groupupgrade highly polluting chemical plantsondthe opposite of what was advo- thatopposedgrowth.AnatolyV. and power stations; it has lent Hungarycated by the Russian visitors, who Lebedev, an independent writer from$300 million for energy efficiency andclaimed that declining industrial produc- Vladivostok and a member of theclean-fuels projects. Together with thetion already was taking care of the air Primorskiy Regional Soviet, complainedUnited Nations Environment Programand prevention of further irreversible that a forestry grant provided by the U.S.and the UN Development Program, thedamage, the third. The emphasis was on Agency for International DevelopmentWorld Bank is supporting a Black Seasmall-scale approaches; the Western gov- (AID) only supported researchwhich,project in which the six littoral countriesernments pledged $30 million toward he said, they already had in abundancewill spend $30 million over three years in preparation of loans and projects. rather than environmentally sound foresta collaborative cleanup program. The industries, which is what they hadGroup of Seven major industrial coun- Legal & contractual remedies sought. Mark L. Borozin, editor of thetries has pledged $75 million toward aMonies provided former Soviet nations weekly Green World in Moscow and anreactor upgrade program, supported byunder the U.S. Freedom Support Act for adviser to Russia's Ministry of Environ-technical assistance from France, Ger-democratic institutions may also contrib- mental Protection, complained that themany and the U.S. Franco-German ute to the solution of environmental prob- advanced industrial countries were con-nuclear offices are being established inlems. But in light of the huge capital spiring to prevent Russia from getting theMoscow and Kiev, and similar centers needs of the former Soviet-bloc nations best available technology, including en-are planned as a result of congressionaland the obvious reluctance of the Group vironmental know-how. His view ap-appropriations promoted by Senatorsof Seven countries to provide aid on the peared to be shared by the whole group. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) and Richard Lugarscale desired, it may be well to think also Obviously, the need for capital and (R-Ind.), which earmarked $400 millionin terms of nonmonetary approaches. technology is great. Yablokov has quoted in fiscal year 1992 and again in fiscal One possibility is to formulate legisla- estimates that $100 billion would be year 1993 to assist with the dismantlingtion in advanced industrial countries needed to clean Russia's water; $50 bil-of nuclear weapons. But most of thatregulating the behavior of their compa- lion to $70 billion to clean up nuclearmoney has so far been spent on equip-nies operating in the former Soviet-bloc pollutants; and restoring the Volga basinment in the U.S., and establishment ofcountries. The EC-reportedly has been alone could cost $300 billion, he said.the centers at the end of 1993 still waspreparing a code of conduct for West Poland's Ministry of Environmental Pro-hostage to the political crisis in RussiaEuropean investors. tection estimated in 1990 that bringingand to Ukraine's refusal to make a clear Another approach is to negotiate debt- the country into compliance with ECcommitmenttosigntheNuclearfor-environmental-improvement deals, in standards by the year 2000 and achieving Nonproliferation Treaty of 1968. which individual countries are promised "sustainable economic development" by Meeting in Lucerne, Switzerland, indebt relief in exchange for firm commit- 2020 would cost $260 billion. April 1993, 50 environmental 'ministers ments to make specific environmental Seen in the light of these estimates, from Europe, Japan, Canada and the U.S. upgrades. One objection is that such the international aid provided or prom-endorsed a World Bank/OECD environ-deals are very difficult to negotiate and ised so far has been small. The Worldmental action plan for Eastern Europe.inevitably give rise to acrimony that can Bank has lent Poland $150 million for aThe plan designates clean air as the first turn out to be counterproductive. conservation project and $100 million topriority, pure drinking water the sec- A similar but still broader approach

It is a city in which disposable diapers or food processors, not to mention personal computers, seem like artifacts of a science- MagnitogorskRussia's Gary fictional world.... "At the same time, Magnitogorsk is a working-class city THE RUSSIAN CITY of Magnitogorsk is a steel town built in without unemployment or even the fear of being laid off, with- the heyday of Stalin's heavy industrialization drive. out a sizable and visible underclass, without a conspicuous elite Magnitogorsk was producing 10% of the U.S.S.R.'s steel or wealthy class, or for that matter without any manifest perin 1939, it produced 50% of the steel used in Russian tanks dur-sonal wealth at all. It is a city without traffic jams and parking ing the Great Patriotic War (World War H), and even at the endnightmaresindeed there are few cars. It is a city without guns of the 1980s was making about as much steel as all of Britain. and other lethal weapons, where murder and other violent First described in 1943 by a disillusioned American expatri-crimes are uncommon and, even more strikingly, uncelebrated ate, John Scott, Magnitogorsk more recently was the subject ofevents. It is a city where people do not fear walking alone at a study by a young Princeton historian, Stephen Kotkin.night, where children can be left to play outside without the "Magnitogorsk is part of a Soviet rust belt yet to undergo thethreat of being kidnapped...." wrenching adjustments already inflicted upon cities of the But Magnitogorsk also is a city, Kotkin goes on to say, in American rust belt," such as Gary, Indiana, Kotkin observes. Itwhich the average life expectancy of a man upon retirement is is representative of 1,000 similar cities with a total populationthree years, in which one third of the adult population and two of about 100 million--complete with "obsolete industry, eco-thirds of the children suffer respiratory diseases, and in which logical devastation, dilapidated or nonexistent infrastructure,four out of ten babies are born with abnormalities. declining living standards and deteriorating health." Yet it also "is a city without restaurants and cafes, without From Stephen Kotkin's Steeltown, U.S.S.R. (Berkeley, Univer- take-out eateries, all-night convenience stores or supermarkets. sity of California Press, 1991). 34 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 37 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS would be to attach environmental condi- initiative, the Amur We RC WERE AT TAMS-7, It tions to virtually every kind of aid to the river basin project SITE of Tile LATOT RUSSIAN NUCLEARACCIDENT. former Soviet bloc. The inseparability ofa sister of its Platte TOLD TWAT ?WIRE 6 No the economic and environmental crises in River Project in the DANCER FROM... the former Soviet and East EuropeanU.S.protects countries is a powerful argument in favor habitats of migrat- of that approach. ing storks and cranes. Role of NGOs Cooperation by During the last 10 years of the Soviet era, nongovernmental scientists associated with nongovernmen- and private-sector tal organizations (NGOs) such as theorganizations need Federation of American Scientists andnot always be a the Natural Resources Defense Council one-way street. Me- developed contacts with sympathetic fig- chanical Technol- ures in the U.S.S.R. and started someogy Inc., a com- pioneering pilot projects. NRDC, for ex-pany based in Co- ample, managed to open several jointlylumbus, Ohio, has BY HARVILIE FOR THE ARKANSAS DEMOCRATOAZETTE, LITTLE ROCK operated stations for monitoring nuclearordered a line of nuc ear waste process- 2. The U.S. should support the ef- tests in the U.S. and U.S.S.R., and it even ing equipment from the Central Scientific forts of NGOs to assist in cleaning up got the Soviet military to cooperate in pi- Research Laboratory in Russia. The Rus- the environment in the former Soviet- lot detection of nuclear warheads on sian technology involves growing alfalfa bloc countries. cruise missiles aboard U.S.S.R. ships.on radioactive contaminated soil so that Pro: Outside countries will never Such projects showed that even under an the alfalfa can act as a biological pump,donate enough money to make a serious authoritarian regime and during whatdrawing heavy metals out of the earth.dent in the former Soviet bloc's environ- Russians now call "the years of stagna- Then the plant material is passed throughmental crisis. Providing relatively open- tion," skilled and dedicated people could an electromagnetic membrane to removeended support for nongovernmental be found who were capable of making the contaminants. According to the Ohioorganizations and private enterprises has worthwhile things happen. company, the processing equipment can the advantage of involving grass-roots Since 1991 the Institute for Soviet-be obtained at a fraction of what it would organizationsinthe former Soviet American Relations (ISAR), based nearcost in the U.S. and may be an economi-republics and Eastern Europe in deci- Washington, D.C., has organized ex-cal method of cleaning low-level radia- sions about which problems to attack and changes of environmentalists betweention from large contaminated areas. how. the U.S. and the former Soviet countries. Con: NGO assistance can never be It has helped found an international clear- U.S. policy options commensurate with the scale of the prob- inghouse on the former Soviet Union's 1. The U.S. should provide large-lems afflicting the former Soviet-bloc environment with the Social Ecologicalscale financial assistance to the formercountries. Union, an umbrella organization for 300Soviet-bloc countries to clean up the The ex-Soviet-bloc countries have an groups from the former Soviet Union co- environment. opportunity to learn from the mistakes ordinated by Maria Cherkasova. With Pro: The former Soviet republics andmade in the West during the last few de- support from the National Endowmenttheir East European neighbors urgentlycades and to make more rapid progress for Democracy, based in Washington,need environment-friendly technology than Europe and the U.S. achieved in the D.C. and World Learning (formerly the for upgrading their nuclear reactors or1970s and 1980s, according to much of Experiment in International Living), converting to gas to supply their energy the recent literature published in the West ISAR has got 135 former Soviet Union needs; for emission-control devices forabout the crisis. But the U.S. and Europe groups linked up to electronic mail. factories and vehicles; for cleaner indus-were able to attack their environmental ISAR has also started a grants program trial processes and water and air filtrationproblems with relatively stable institu- with support from AID, with $2 million systems. Unless large amounts of outsidetions, not having to build new social and to spend over two years. AID has givencapital are forthcoming, there is no waypolitical organizations from the ground ISAR another $1 million to organize athe former Soviet-bloc countries can af-up. Furthermore, the idea of "leapfrog- one-year NGO cooperation program. ford the technology. ging history" has played a not-altogether- The National Audubon Society also Con: It is questionable whether politi-benign role in Russian thought, from Pe- has initiated some joint projects. One, incal support can be found in the U.S. forter the Great to Lenin to Stalin. Perhaps which Audubon's Alaska office is taking such a strategy. Moreover, large grantsthen it would be better for environmen- the lead, aims to establish an international and loans inevitably would require thetalists in the U.S. to use what influence park on Russia's side of the land bridgeU.S. as donor to make strategic decisions they have to stress the virtues of the that once linked Asia and North America.about which environmental problems"small is beautiful" approachto en- Native peoples on both sides of the divide most urgently need to be addressed, acourage their counterparts in the former are participating in the design of thekind of interventionism that could arouseSoviet bloc to think realistically about project, which is geared to the preserva-nationalist resentments in some of thewhat positive advances can be achieved tion of natural habitats. Another Audubon former Soviet-bloc nations. carefully, in small steps. 38 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 35 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

rent defense spending in the seven most-to the former Communist countries given advanced industrial countries for envi-the fact that technology in the capitalist DEICUSSION ronmental aid, primarily in the formercountries is privately owned? For ex- QUESTICDNS Soviet Union and Eastern Europe? ample, should the U.S. government force Chevron to give Kazakhstan the most 4. Are nuclear weapons an environmen- advanced oil-drilling technology? 1. To what extent should aid-donortal problem? Should Ukraine, which has countries have a say in determining envi-nuclear weapons, be required to sign the 7. To what extent might the former So- ronmental standards and priorities for theNuclear Nonproliferation Treaty of 1968 viet-bloc states be able to "leapfrog" his- former Soviet-bloc countries? as a condition for receiving help withtory and achieve very rapid improvement other environmental problems? in the environment, adopting the latest 2. Do you favor making environmental technology and avoiding some of the improvements a condition for debt relief5. Should investors in the former Sovietmistakes the advanced industrial coun- to former Soviet-bloc countries? bloc be required to adhere to codes oftries made? Given Russia's past experi- conduct, including an obligation to ob- ence with leapfrogging, most recently the 3. What level of capital assistance wouldserve environmentally sound practices? Leninist attempt to skip the capitalist it be appropriate and feasible to offer the phase of historical development, should former Soviet-bloc states? For example, 6. Is there any way of making the bestthe Russians be encouraged to attempt would you favor earmarking 1% of cur-environmental technology more availablesuch jumps again? Peterson, D.J., Troubled Lands: The Legacy of Soviet Envi- ronmental Destruction. Boulder, Colo., Westview Press/ Washington, RAND, 1993. 276 pp. $19.95 (paper). A thorough and useful documentation based on interviews, Soviet official papers and press reports.

"Bitter Conflicts: Wars Engulf Moscow's Dying Empire."Zagalsky, Leonid, ed., "Kazakhstan." The Bulletin of the. World Press Review, October 1993, pp. 8-14. A survey of the Atomic Scientists, October 1993, pp. 14-47. With contribu- most severe conflicts that sheds light on the impact of extreme tions by former Soviet authors, provides much insight into agri- deprivation; situations could be portents of worse to come. cultural and oil development, as well as the political context.

Feshbach, Murray, and Friendly Jr., Alfred, Ecocide in the ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND,257 Park Ave. S., New York, U.S.S.R.: Health and Nature Under Siege. New York, Basic N.Y 10010; (212) 505-2100.EDF draws on science, econom- Books, 1992. 267 pp. $24.00. Written by an expert on Sovietics and law to create workable solutions to today's environmen- health data and a journalist, the book takes a very broad view oftal problems and publishes the EDF newsletter. the environment. As the title implies, it is slightly dated. GREENPEACE U.S A.,1436 U St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009; French, Hilary E., "Green Revolutions: Environmental Recon-(202) 462-1177. A nonprofit, international environment group structioninEastern Europe and theSoviet Union."dedicated to dramatizing environmental injustices and using Woridwatch Paper No. 99. Washington, D.C., Worldwatchresearch, lobbying and grass-roots activism to effect change. Institute,1990. 62 pp. $5.00. Also somewhat out of date, but contains some useful comparative data. NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL (NRDC),40 West 20th St, New York, N.Y. 10011; (212) 727-2700.An independent or- Hamilton, John Maxwell, "Will Pollution Kill the Revolution?" ganization strong in environmental litigation and regulation in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 1991, pp. 12-18.the U.S. It pioneered environmental projects in the U.S.S.R. and Primarily on Poland and the former Czechoslovakia, but despitecurrently has a number of projects in Russia and Ukraine. Pub- limited scope, informative and insightful. lishes The Amicus Journal (4/year) and Newsline (5/year).

Kabala, Stanley J., "The Environmental Morass in Eastern Eu- WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE (WRI),1709 New York Ave., N.W., rope." Current History, November 1991, pp. 384-89. By a7th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20006; (202) 638-6300.An in- leading expert on Poland's environment, this analysis has andependent research institution, WRI provides data on global authoritative ring. resources and environmental conditions, studies emerging issues and helps develop appropriate policy responses. Kopkind, Andrew, "From Russia With Love and Squalor." The Nation, January 18, 1993, pp. 11 62. A journalist's portrait of WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE,1776 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., life in Russia a year after democratization. Washington, D.C. 20036; (202) 452-1999.The Worldwatch Institute is an independent, nonprofit research organization that Medvedev, Grigori, The Truth About Chernobyl. New York,informs policymakers and the public about the interdependence Basic Books, 1991. 267 pp. $ 12.00. Somewhat technical, butof the world economy and its environmental support systems. written by an insider who provides much insight into the regu-Publications include Woridwatch Paper, annual State of the latory and political background of the accident. World report and the bimonthly World Watch magazine. 36 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 39 OPINION BALLOTS

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TOPIC in TOPIC 4 Trade with Pacific Rim j 4 Trade with Pacific Rim ISSUE A.In its trade negotiations with the Pacific Rim, ISSUE A. 11 I In its trade negotiations with the Pacific Rim, I the U.S. should: the U.S. should: YES NO YES NO I I 1. Pursue freer trade with all I 1. Pursue freer trade with all I economies of the region. 1 economies of the region. 0 I I2. Correct trade imbalances by the I 2. Correct trade imbalances by the I use of quotas, voluntary export use of quotas, voluntary export 0 restraints and other barriers. I restraints and other barriers. 0 I 0 3. Tie trade agreements with China I 3. Tie trade agreements with China 1 I and Indonesia to respect for I and Indonesia to respect for I Ihuman rights. I human rights. I I 4. Tie trade with Taiwan to I 4. Tie trade with Taiwan to 1 111 guarantees for intellectual I guarantees for intellectual I property rights. I property rights. I 5. Lift the trade embargo on Vietnam. II I 5. Lift the trade embargo on Vietnam. I i 6. Other, or comment I 6. Other, or comment I I I II I i IFirst three digits of your zip code: : First three digits of your zip code: IDate: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... I Date: / /1994 Ballot continues on reverse side... I Num 111_.111_. mot..1.1.1 Ix No el GREAT DECISIONS 1994 37 40 OPINION BALLOTS

. NI 11 NUM = M M IIIII-IMM-IMMI MUM M NUN IIIII NMI I I I ISSUE B.Would it be appropriate fur the U.S. to channel I ISSUE B.Would it be appropriate for the U.S. to channel I 111 I aid for environmental cleanup through citizen groups? aid for environmental cleanup through citizen groups? I I 1. Yes. 1. Yes. 1 I I 0 2. No. I 2. No. I I I ll 0 ISSUE C.To combat the environmental damage caused I ISSUE C.To combat the environmental damage caused I II by the policies of the former Soviet-bloc countries, the I by the policies of the former Soviet-bloc countries, the I I U.S. should urge those countries to give the highest pri- I U.S. should urge those countries to give the highest pri- I I ority to (check one only): I ority to (check one only): I 1. Reducing air pollution. 1. Reducing air pollution. I 2. Upgrading nuclear reactors to meet interim- I 2. Upgrading nuclear reactors to meet interna- I tional standards. I tional standards. I I 3. "Denuclearizing" energy-intensive econo- 1 3. "Denuclearizing" energy-intensive econo- I I mies. 1 mies. I 1 4. Eliminating or reducing nuclear weapons and 4. Eliminating or reducing nuclear weapons and I I providing for their safe disposal. II providing for their safe disposal. I I 5. Cleaning up and restoring the quality of in- 5. Cleaning upand restoring the quality of in 1 0 teationalrn bodies of water in and around the 111 temational bodies of water in and around the Iformer Soviet bloc. I former Soviet bloc. I I 6. Other, or comment 1 6. Other, or comment I Il I I I I ; I I I I I MIIIIIIIIIIIIIN a a a IN M11111111111111111111M a a a a a MI! 1111IN M a 11111111111111111111a a a 11111111111101M a a I II I I ISSUE B.In its trade negotiations with Japan, the U.S. ISSUE B.In its trade negotiations with Japan, the U.S. i should: I should: I IYES NO I YES NO I II I I 1 .Press for a share of the Japanese 1. Press for a share of the Japanese ill mketar for U.S. exports, industry I market for U.S. exports, industry I I by industry. 1 by industry. 1:1 I I 2. Press for structural changes in the I 2. Press for structural changes in the I I Japanese economy. 1:11 1 Japanese economy. I I3. Offer to make structural changes in 1 3. Offer to make structural changes in the U.S. economy (e.g., increase 1 the U.S. economy (e.g., increase I savings and investment) in exchange savings and investment) in exchange I for structural changes in the Japanese I for structural changes in the Japanese I Ill economy. ID I economy. IZI I 1 1 I 4. Not worry about a trade imbalance 4. Not worryabout a trade imbalanceance I with Japan since the U.S. has trade I with Japan since the U.S. has trade I II surpluses with other countries. CII 0 1 surpluses with other countries. 0 I 5. Other, or comment 1 5. Other, or comment 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I0 I I I Ic....".._.-mr....-...... 11...... w...... 111ii I 38 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 41 TRADE 4 The Pacific Rim economies (Austra- lia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thai- land and Vietnam) offer vital markets for Trade with the U.S. goodsmarkets that account for more than 2.4 million American jobs. In Pacific Rim:pressure 1960, U.S. trade with Asia was less than half the volume of U.S. trade with Eu- rope. Three decades later, the total of orcooperation? American exports to and imports from Asia, now up to $344 billion, dwarfed those crossing the Atlanticby 50%. As a trading partner, Asia is one and one-half times asAlthough Canada is the U.S.'s largest large as Europe and growing rapidly. So is the U.S. tradetrading partner, the combined U.S. trade deficit with the region. with Canada and Mexico in 1992 was only $265 billion, also greatly overshad- owed by U.S. trade with Asia. by Jinny St. Goar Because several of the Asian-Pacific economies are growing at more than "As Asia advances, so must we. For to-East Asia has been growing at a rate oftwice the rate of the U.S. and its industri- day, no region in the world is more im-more than 6% a year for a generation.alized trading partners in Europe, Wash- portant to the U.S. than Asia....That isImagine the changes in the U.S. from theington can anticipate an even greater pro- why President Clinton has called for astart of the 20th century through theportion of its trade flowing across the Pa- New Pacific Community, built on threepresent being compressed into one or twocific Ocean in the coming years. For the core elements: shared prosperity, shareddecades for a picture of economic devel-Pacific Rim, international trade has been strength, and a shared commitment toopment in Asia. critical to its vitality. democratic values." Secretary of State Warren Christopher Address at University of Washington, Seattle, November 17, 1993

"----"F THE20THCENTURYwas the "Ameri- can century," as the founder of Time, Life and Fortune Henry R. Luce so modestly dubbed it, then the 21st century will belong to the countries of the Pacific Rim, at least in the world view of the U.S. "Fast-forward" describes the growth of the region's economies. Consider the needs of typical consumers in China, for example. In the late 1970s, they were looking for a sewing machine, a bicycle and an electric fan. By the 1980s, according to a Hong Kong-based market research firm, Chinese consumers might have aspired to a TV, a refrigerator and a washing machine. In the 1990s, the Chi- nese have a new trio of desires: a VCR, a motorcycle and a telephone. For the 1.2 billion people in China, these changes in buying patterns indicate a quickly rising standard of living and an economy that is scrambling to meet these demands. As a whole, the economies of the Pacific region are growing more than six times as fast as the 24 leading industrial economies did last year. Most of AT THE NOVEMBER SUMMITof the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, President Clinton, with President Fidel Ramos of the Philippines on his right and Prime Minister Jean JINNY ST. GOARis a writer on economics and Chretien of Canada on his left, led the other Pacific Rim leaders on a walk before sitting down finance with a particular interest in Asia. to six hours of meetings. 42 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 39 1OPIC 4 PACIFIC RIM This shortfall in 1992 was all the more frustrating because the U.S. had a global deficit for that year of only $84.3 billion, The Pacific Rim: indicating that the rest of the world was buying more from the U.S. than it was anoverview selling to Americans by a margin of $2.7 billion. The persistence of the recession WHEN HE STRESSED the need to in- off was premised on Pacific Rim coun- in Europe, however, changed that global crease employment in the industri-tries resisting the Soviet Union and the surplus in the first seven months of 1993 alized economies, President Bill ClintonPeople's Republic of China and the U.S.to a deficit of $6.2 billion. defined a top priority in his foreignplaying a strategic balancing role, offer- Japan accounts for about 40% of the policy. Clearly this Administration seesing its nuclear umbrella to Japan andtotal U.S. trade deficitor around $50 exports to growing economies as a ve-South Korea. The U.S. also contributedbillionwhich has gradually increased hicle for job creation. At the same timeto the region's conventional defense, pro- over the past three years. But in 1992, the U.S. has a history of close diplomaticvided economic and military assistanceChina's trade surplus with the U.S. bal- relations with Japan, South Korea, theand allowed relatively unhindered accesslooned by 50% to $18 billion, and it con- Philippines, Australia, Taiwan and Thai- to American markets. But U.S. economic tinued at about that level in 1993. A large landrelations that cannot be entirelyinterests no longer take a back seat. Andelement of the growth of China's exports given over to banging on entry-port without those trade-offs, the pressure toto the U.S. can be attributed to Taiwan doors for trade access. The region alsorectify imbalances increases. and Hong Kong having shifted produc- includes two of the world's most worri- Asians are selling far more to Ameri- tion to the People's Republic of China. In some nuclear powersChina, whichcans than they are buying. The U.S. had a 1987, the combined surplus of the "three tested nuclear weapons as recently astrade deficit of $87 billion with the re- Chinas" with the U.S. was $28 billion, October 1993, and North Korea, whichgion in 1992, representing the differencethe same level as in 1992. refuses international inspections of itsbetween exports to and imports from Within the region, four newly indus- nuclear facilities. Asia. Since the U.S. buys more from trialized economies, often described as the The end of the cold war threw intoAsia than it sells to Asia, the imbalance is"Four Tigers"(Taiwan, South Korea, question the terms of all U.S. alliances,widely understood as a deficiency of do- Hong Kong and Singapore) account for and those relationships have not all beenmestic U.S. producers to meet the de- another $11 billion of the U.S. shortfall. clearly redefined. As recently as 1987,mands of American consumers. Viewed Hong Kong and Singapore are notable for when the U.S. trade deficit with Japan in a different light, the deficit also repre-their lack of trade barriers. Hong Kong is peaked at $56 billion, the Soviet strategic sents the transfer of U.S. buying powerthe only Asian trading partner with which buildup in the Pacific was viewed as aoverseas and an attendant loss of jobs at the U.S. has turned its traditional trade threat. For four decades, a rough trade- home. deficit into a positive balance in 1993. Six countries form the loose entity known as Asean, the Association of South East Asian Nations: Indonesia, AVERAGE GROWTH OF GNP PER CAPITA, 1965-90 Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the small Sultanate of Brunei. Founded in 1967, Asean is the East Asia U.S.'s fourth largest trading partner, with 320 million people. Its trade surplus with HPAES* the U.S. was $12 billion in 1992. Australia, whose economy has grown South Asia at much the same pace as the U.S. economy, is the only Pacific Rim country Middle East and Mediterranean with which the U.S. has always had a trade surplus. In 1992 that amounted to Sub-Saharan Africa $5.2 billion, roughly the same as in the first half of 1993. Recently New Zealand, OECD economies which traditionally has had a trade deficit with the U.S., also had a small surplus. Latin America and The U.S. has had an embargo on trade Caribbean with Vietnam since 1975: no U.S. enterprises have been allowed to trade directly 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 with Vietnam or manufacture there. Dur- GNP per capita growth rate (percent) ing his first year President Clinton lifted the embargo slightly by agreeing to let the World Bank, the International Mon- *The eight "high-performing Asian economies": Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand etary Fund and the Asian Development

SOURCE THE EAST ASIAN ANRACIE SUMMARY, WORLD BANK POLICY RESEARCH REPORT, SEPTEMBER 1093 Bank lend to Vietnam. U.S. companies

40 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 OPIC PACIFIC RIM 4 can now bid on internationally funded development projects, but they are still prohibited from selling their goods directly or manufacturing in Vietnam.

Since1986, echoingtheSoviet 611;(L'ilV Union's economic reforms, Vietnam has moved gradually toward a market- oriented economy. As in China, political reform has not kept pace with the changing Vietnamese economy. The 72 million people (twice the population of South Korea) are hard-working and lit- erate. The country's natural resources are also enviable, among them: anthracite coal, the potential for hydroelectric power, timber, agriculture, fisheries, and offshore oil. Sources of trade tensions Fundamental differences between East and West have made trade conflicts particularly intractable. This became apparent in the 1980s between the U.S. and Japan, but similar problems have arisen in the 1990s with South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Theto air and naval resources, which seem to Another force that promotes trading is primary U.S. complaint with respect tobe geared to the projection of powera quirk of nature's endowment. Many of Japan has been the concentration of own-rather than the protection of borders. Thethe countries are island-nations driven to ership and additional cross-ownership insettlement of trade disputes and generalinternational commerce by necessity. conglomerates, or keiretsu, that make theeasing of tensions in the Pacific Rim areaJapan is the outstanding examplean Japanese economy a restricted club. Addhave become all the more pressing. archipelago poor incertainnatural to that Japan's emphasis on production resources and rich in culture and human rather than consumption, and the result is Population and geography energy. Indonesia, the region's second- an economy that sells vigorously to theThe Asian-Pacific region has a history ofmost-populous country (after China) with U.S. (and to Europe, as well) and buysrelying on trade for its growth. Two188 million people, is another island- considerably less from the U.S. forces have shaped this orientation, eachnation as are the Philippines, Taiwan, Tensions with the Japanese over tradewith complications for the region. First,Singapore and Hong Kong. issues have intensified. The term "Japan-population pressures in China have en- U.S. trade partners bashing" has become shorthand for U.S. couraged 30 million Chinese to emigrate politicians' diatribes about the trade defi- during the last two centuries. But the The island of Taiwan became the ref- cit and the declining fortunes of U.S. in-overseas Chinese have retained stronguge for the Nationalist Chinese, or the dustries that compete directly with Japan. cultural ties and have created a vast net-Kuomintang, who lost their civil war on The Japanese, for their part, claim thatwork of business relationships, particu-the mainland to Mao Zedung and the their markets are open to U.S. goods, butlarly in Southeast Asia. In Thailand,Communists in 1949. For three decades that the quality of those goods is not ap-roughly 50% of the capital city's 8 mil- the U.S. recognized Taiwan, or the Re- pealing to the Japanese consumer. lion residents are of Chinese descent. Thepublic of China, as the only legitimate Some observers have suggested thatChinese of Malaysia constitute the lion'sChinese government. Since the opening these acrimonious words will soon beshare of the country's merchant class. of U.S. diplomatic relations with Beijing echoed in exchanges between the U.S. Indonesia, like Malaysia, a predomi- in late 1978, Taiwan has been in an awk- and other Asian nations. Until now, U.S.nantly Muslim country, shares Malay-ward position: a loyal U.S. ally who has trade negotiators have focused mainly on sia's unease about the potentially dividedbeen slighted. The second-largest source Japan, but U.S. policymakers are startingloyalties of their ethnic Chinese merchant of investment capital for the Pacific Rim, to grapple with the rest of the region'sclass. In these two Islamic countries, cer- Taiwan remains a diplomatic outsider as contribution to the U.S. trade deficit. tain social and economic privileges areits trading partners prefer not to alienate Trade issues worry U.S. policymakers still reserved for the bumiputra (sons ofthe region's behemoth, China. for another reason. The trade surplusesthe soil), the ethnic Malay and Indone- Traditionally, Taiwan exported foot- for several Pacific Rim economies havesiansan explicit slight to these coun-wear, clothing, plastics, umbrellas and coincided with significant increases intries' ethnic Chinese citizens. Nonethe-travel accessories to the U.S. However, defense spendingin China, the Philip- less, the entrepreneurial spirit of the over-Taiwanese traders moved such light pines, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysiaseas Chinese has been a major contribu- manufacturing concerns first to Southeast and Indonesia. And those funds are going tor to the dynamism of Asia. Asian lower-wage countries, and more GREAT DECISIONS 1994 41 44 PACIFIC RIM

SELECTED STATISTICS working closely with the Clinton Ad- ministration. 1993 Population 1991 GDP 1992 Volume of 1992 U.S. Thailand, a constitutional monarchy (millions) (billions) trade with U.S. trade deficit and the only country in Southeast Asia (billions) (billions) that has never been colonized, was japan 1.24.R $2,360.7 $144.9 $49 largely controlled by the military until the late 1980s. Failed coup attempts by Taiwan 20.9 $180.1 $40 $9.4 the military in 1985 and 1992 have signaled the maturing of Thai democracy, China 1,178 NA $33 $18.3 evidence of a burgeoning middle class. A South Korea 44.6 $280.8 $31.3 $2 strong ally to the U.S. throughout the Vietnam War, Thailand has had notably Singapore 2.8 $39.9 $20.9 $1.7 close diplomatic relations with China since the late 1970s, largely because of Hong Kong 5.8 $71.0 $8.1* $0.2* the two countries' common fear of Viet- Australia 17.8 $277.2 $12.6 +$5.2 nam. The Thais have also been eager for the U.S. to serve as a counterweight to Thailand 57.2 $88.0 $11.5 $3.5 the Japanese in trade relations. Indonesia 187.6 $115.0 $7.2 $1.7 The U.S. trade deficit with Thailand increased by almost 40% in the first *1991 figures seven months of 1993, indicating that Thailand could join China in a special category of newly emerging problem recently to mainland China, concentrat-abutting Communist North Korea. Since partners. ingon developinghigh-technologythe inconclusive war on the Korean pen- Indonesia is the only Asian member industries, such as electronics, on Tai- insula in the early 1950s, the U.S. hasof the Organization of Petroleum Export- wan. Recently, Taiwan has started tomaintained troops in South Korea-re- ing Countries (OPEC) and is the world's shift its investments in China towardcently at the level of 37,000 strong. Thebiggest exporter of liquid natural gas. In more technology-intensive industries, in-host country has agreed to pay more of1993 at age 72, President Suharto started cluding chemicals, building materials,the U.S. defense costs there. In 1991 both his sixth term in office and chose a cabi- automobiles and electronic products andNorth and South Korea became members net of younger officials to groom the next components. of the United Nations. The South Kore- generation of leaders. The U.S. has raised The economic liberalization policiesans established diplomatic relations withconcerns about the treatment of trade of the 1980s in the People's Republic ofChina in August 1992. unions and the Indonesian government's China spawned rapid growth, fulfilling The South Korean economy has been handling of the East Timorese separatist for many Chairman Deng Xiao-ping'smarked by a state-directed policy of in-movement. slogan "To get rich is glorious." But thedustrialization and the presence of the With about125millionpeople, difficulttransitionfrom a plannedchaebols, the Korean counterpart to theroughly half the population of the U.S., economy to a market economy also fos-Japanese keiretsu. These conglomeratesJapan has a gross national product tered the uncontrolled inflation in the latetend to be vertically integrated, meaning (GNP) of about 60% that of the U.S. 1980s that culminated in the democracy the corporate entity embraces units thatSince 1955, the end of the post-World protests in Tiananmen Square. Similarcontribute all parts of a production pro-War II occupation by the U.S., Japan has inflationary conditions developed in cess, cutting off opportunities for outsidehad a parliamentary democracy, domi- 1993. The situation is further compli-suppliers. Certain barriers to trade havenated by the Liberal Democratic party cated by 89-year-old Chairman Deng'sbeen lifted within the last two years.(LDP). Reflecting the country's roots as a declining health and the eventual transi-President Kim has proposed reforms that nation of rice farmers, votes from agri- tion of power. would move South Korea toward a morecultural regions have carried more weight Under a 1992 agreement aimed atliberal, market-based economic system, a than urban votes, and a system of land opening Chinese markets, the U.S. wastransition that is not yet complete. subsidies protects the rice paddies, artifi- given assurances that all trade-related As a frontier land settled by mainlycially inflating the value of urban land as laws and regulations in China would beBritish immigrants, Australia tradition-well. The voters' rejection of the LDP published, and that the Chinese centralally oriented its diplomacy and trade to- last year is expected to introduce political government would try to standardize theward Europe and the U.S. but in the mid-reforms that could change the traditional treatment of imports, no matter where 1980s began shifting gears to carve outbalance of power in favor of the cities. goods arrive. Furthermore, the Chinesea more Asian identity. Australia's Labor Japan's rate of economic growth had pledged to end the export of goods manu-party has controlled national politics forconsistently exceeded that of the U.S. factured by prison labor. the last decade, putting the country outuntil the country moved into a full-blown South Korea recently elected its firstof sync with the Republican Whiterecession in 1993. Corporate profits de- civilian president, Kim Young Sam, re-House in the 1980s. Labor held on toclined to such an extent that Japanese flecting South Koreans' greater confi-the prime minister's portfolio in Marchcompanies laid off workers in 1993. This dence in their still precarious position of1993, giving the Australians the hope offurther dampens the prospects for a 42 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 45 ,o, PACIFIC RIM 4 now heads the Australian Institute of International Affairs. To a large extent, a more open enrollment for APEC mem- Regional trade cooperation bers hinges on whether Asians feel left out of other trade relationships. Free-trade agreements, by definition, discriminate IN REFERRING TO the Pacific Rim, policymakers occasionally against those who are not included. As for the North American include all countries that border the world's largest ocean,Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) between the U.S., Canada and not just the U.S. and Asia. Canada is already part of theMexico, some of the smaller Asian nations are concerned that Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, andNafta will draw investment capital away. APEC's 15 member economies recently agreed to admit three Some APEC members, the Australians for example, have more countries, Mexico, Chile and Papua New Guinea. raised concerns about Nafta diminishing the market for their Within this diverse region, the relatively young APEC forumexports. But Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating has emis the most all-encompassing organization. When APEC wasphasized that the reduction could amount to only about 4%. launched in late 1989, largely at the initiative of the Australians,Some large Australian or Japanese companies would be more it provided a forum for regional leaders to exchange ideas about likely to take advantage of Nafta by manufacturing goods in trade, investment and development. Several Asian economiesMexico for sale in the U.S. The Singaporeans are more con- had already moved into their recent phase of double-digitcerned that the strong opposition to Nafta in the U.S. signaled a growth rates. At the same time, regional tensions over the onerising tide of protectionism. By the same token, a failure by the place of armed conflict, Cambodia, eased as the Vietnameseparties to GATT to conclude the long-overdue Uruguay Round officially withdrew their troops from this neighboring countryof negotiations could also trigger protectionism, prompting in September 1989. Within two years of its founding, APEC Asians to react defensively. had invited the "three Chinas" to jointhe People's Republic, Next to APEC, the most inclusive organization is the East Taiwan and Hong Kongalthough the three Indochinese coun-Asian Economic Group, more a forum for discussion than a tries (Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam) are still not included. long-established entity with accepted rules. Malaysian Prime Now a permanent secretariat has been set up in Singapore. Minister Mahathir Mohamad started this group in 1991, explic- Secretary of State Christopher has described APEC as "the cor-itly excluding the U.S. because of his irritation with Americans' nerstone of regional economic cooperation" and trade liberal-attention to human rights abuses in other countries. ization. It is the first organization to embody the Asian-Pacific Asian trade pact "community." The U.S. chaired the group's fourth annual ministerial meet-Under the terms of the Asean free-trade agreement (AFTA) ing in Seattle in November 1993, where the representativeslaunched in January 1993, the six members agreed to start low- broke new ground by agreeing to reduce certain tariffs as a spurering tariffs to a range from 5% to 0 by 2008. But since the to the current multilateral trade negotiations under GATT.agreement was signed in early 1992, a new prime minister has APEC has been vocal in its support for the General Agreementtaken the helm in Thailand and a new cabinet was appointed in on Tariffs and Trade, the multilateral organization set up inIndonesia. The agreement is not legally binding, nor is it so firm 1947 to reduce tariffs and promote trade globally.To develop athat reluctant participants cannot wriggle out. The signers comparable set of rules and a governing body that commands agreed to differing paces of tariff reductions. But AFTA's most respect could take time, but the benefits could be great. For ex-fundamental limitation is the fact that most Asean exports go to ample, APEC could help contain U.S.-Japanese trade frictions,Japan, Europe and the U.S., whereas intra-Asean trade has re- suggests Garry Woodard, a former Australian diplomat who mained at about 20% of the six countries' total since 1980.

recovery as Japanese consumers become slightlylonger workweek thanthe By several measures, Japan buys less more reluctant to spend. But Japan re-Americansabout four hours longer,abroad than other industrialized nations. mains a powerful exporter. The Japanesewhich adds up to 200 hours a year. TheThe Japanese import about one third as recession has exacerbated the U.S. tradeJapanese import most raw materials formany manufactured goods as either imbalance by shrinking the market theremanufacturing and are almost entirely Americans or Germans. Moreover, for- for U.S. goods. dependent on foreign sources for oil and eign firms of any origin have accounted The industrial composition of the U.S. other energy supplies. Food, fuel and rawfor a tiny fraction of sales in Japan and Japanese economies is so similar materials constituted 35% of U.S. exportsabout 1%, as compared with 10% in the (even though Japan now manufactures a to Japan in 1992, while the U.S. importedU.S. or 18% in Germanyindicating not number of products the U.S. no longera negligible volume in these categoriesonly a low level of imports but also the makes) that competition in trade is al- from Japan. control of those imports by Japanese most inevitable. But in part because Ja- As the Japanese standard of living firms. pan has a narrower base of natural re- rose rapidly after World War II, manu- Japan's average tariff for industrial sources than the U.S., the Japanese have facturing moved abroad in several wavesproducts is comparable to that of the U.S. specialized intensively in certain engi-in search of lower wages. Most recently,and the European Community, the 12- neering-based sectors of the economybetween 1985 and 1990, when the yennation common marketabout 5.3%. with good results in export markets: elec- appreciated sharply due to American ef-But obstacles to trade evidently exist, trical machinery, transportation equip-forts to curb the growing U.S. trade defi-given the low level of imports. The Japa- ment, precision machinery, computers,cit, the Japanese placed almost $600 bil-nese occasionally acknowledge these subway cars and machine tools. Thelion in direct investments throughoutlimits, if only obliquely. For example, Japanese have taken advantage of aEast Asia and the U.S. last year, Japan continued a 22-year ban GREAT DECISIONS 1994 43 46 PACIFIC RIM

endorse the principles of free trade and condemn numerical targets. The Japanese made no excuses for this effort to embar- rass the Clinton Administration into backing off from its tough threats. And even after the change in government with Hosokawa's accession to power, at a round of trade talks in September, The Wall Street Journal reported that "the Japanese side reverted to standard bro- mides about Japan already being 'the most open economy in the world.'" There is a peculiar wrinkle to some of Japan's posturing in trade talks. The government uses foreign pressure to press legislators to accept politically unpalat- able but ultimately desirable change. In- voking this force in April, the former Japanese Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa did not mince words, leading The Washington Post to announce in its headline: "Japanese Invite Trade Hard- Line: Tough U.S. Stance Could Spur Change, Prime Minister Says." on the import of U.S. apples, citing inad- talk with.'... They do not exist," wrote Japan's trade relations with the U.S. equate U.S. technology to control insects.the Dutch journalist Karel van Wolferenhave been colored by dependence on the Since American-grown apples cost aboutlast fall. U.S. for its security needs. But several half what Japanese apples do, the real The overwhelming impression of thelandmarks indicate the Japanese are tak- reason for the ban seemed transparent. Japanese trade negotiating posture ining on greater responsibility in the inter- Much like Americans, the Japanese 1993 has been generated by a few testynational arena. They helped to negotiate recently chose a member of a new gen-encounters. Initsfirst months, thepeace in Cambodia and to finance the eration as their leader, 55-year-old PrimeClinton Administration was perceived as war in the Persian Gulf, and they are Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, the first more protectionist than its predecessor.making a strong bid for a permanent seat non-LDP prime minister since WorldBy May, Japan was pressuring its indus- on the Security Council at the United War II. But Hosokawa's election in mid-trialized trading partners in Europe toNations. summer probably will not change a few fundamentals of U.S.-Japanese trade relations. In late September Hosokawa's agriculture minister was forced by an unusu- ally poor rice harvest to announceTrade imbalances: Japan's first imports of this staple, leading to momentary optimism about theis thereacure? prospects for trade reform in Japan. But shortly thereafter, the agriculture ministry WHAT DOES THE continuing U.S. trade so-called merchandise trade in raw mate- said that any rice imports would only be deficit with the Pacific Rim signify rials, agricultural products and manufac- temporarya harsh message for Japa-for the economy? There are several waystured goods. Instead, the critical compo- nese consumers who pay $45 to $50 forto look at trade deficits. At one end of thenent is the current-account deficit, which the 20-pound bag of rice that sells for $6spectrum, free-market economists in theis the excess of all U.S. payments for im- to $7 in the U.S. U.S. argue that the American trade prob- ports of goods and services over Ameri- The Japanese bureaucracy has alwayslem has little to do with individual part-can export earnings from goods and ser- been important in trade negotiations, inners' laws and practices. Rather the im- vices. From the trade in services, the U.S. particular the ministry of finance, thebalance has more to do with a shortcom-enjoyed a $60 billion global surplus in ministry of international trade and indus-ing in U.S. savings and an excess of U.S. 1992 compared with its $110 billion mer- try (known as MITI) and the Foreignconsumption. In simple terms, this meanschandise deficit. The services include in- Ministry. Because decisionmaking isthat the U.S. has greater purchasingsurance, tourism, interest and dividends reached through consensus, the respon-power than producing power, as the U.S. on investment, educating foreign students sible person remains a shadowy figure. rate of savings has been too low to fundat U.S. universities and other intangibles. "For some time, American trade repre-the production of all the goods that According to economists of this sentatives and other emissaries have beenAmericans demand. What counts is notschool, a straightforward solution to re- attempting to identify 'the right people to the trade deficit, which usually refers toducing the current-account deficit is 44 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 47 oF PACIFIC RIM 4 within reach of Americans: boost domes- The tensions in public debate are notproducts, medical equipment and phar- tic savings to meet the investment needs restricted to U.S.-Japanese relations. Themaceuticals, electronics and telecommu- of the U.S. By curbing the acquisitive in- U.S. and China have argued over Chi-nications systems increased from $1.2 stincts of Americans, and in particularnese weapons sales abroad so vigorouslybillion in 1985 to about $3.6 billion in doing without some imported goods, the that in August 1993 the U.S. placed a 1991. savings could be put to productive usetwo-year ban on the sale of certain high- In search of redress for persistent that would create long-term jobs at home.technology goods to 10 Chinese aero-trade deficits in the late 1980s, the U.S. But those goals would only be reachedspace companies, despite the ban's re-Congress created what is known as Super by the broadest strokes of economic re-ducing the volume of U.S. exports. In301. This set up an ongoing review of form, according to this school of thought,November, in a goodwill gesture, theother countries' trade practices that cul- such as decreasing the budget deficit, in-Administration agreed to sell China anminates in a yearly list identifying "prior- creasing incentives for investment and$8 million supercomputer. And when ity practices" of "priority countries." The eliminating the double taxation of corpo-Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir boy-first list came out in May 1989. The Japa- rate dividends to increase savings. Japancotted the November meeting of APEC,nese were cited for their exclusionary has urged the U.S. to take such steps. it was because of Washington's cool re-practicesinbuyingsatellitesand At the other end of the spectrum aresponse to the Asians-only economicsupercomputers for public use, as well as economists more closely identified with grouping he has promoted and a desire to some technical barriers to trade in forest the Clinton Administration. They, too,draw attention to his small nation. products. It was widely expected that accept the current-account deficit as a South Korea and Taiwan would also be more accurate reflection of reality than Easing access for U.S. exports on the dreaded list. But not long before the merchandise trade deficit. But theyRecognizing that trade imbalances are aMay 1989 both countries had lowered tend to focus on the current-accounttwo-way street, the U.S. has occasionallycertain trade barriers. A year later, the deficit's drain on jobs in the U.S. sought a two-track approachseeking toU.S. and Japan signed agreements on This perspective favors various de-improve access for U.S. goods to thesupercomputers, satellites and wood grees of government intervention in theAsian markets while restraining Asianproducts. free flow of international trade. In thisexports. When the U.S. trade deficit with The unwelcome designation as a pri- view, the range of levers to steer the cur-Japan grew sharply in the early 1980s,ority offender on the Super 301 is a trade rent-account deficit closer to balancefrom $12 billion in 1980 to $33 billion inweapon that the Clinton Administration include the management of currency- 1984, the U.S. sought several unilateralhas revived, after the Bush Administra- exchange rates, industry-specific tradeconcessions by the Japanesea patterntion intentionally let it lapse. In March targets that are also known as sectoralthat is beginning to emerge in U.S. trade 1993, U.S.-Taiwanese trade talks broke targets, or broader macroeconomic goalsrelations with other Asian nations. Salesdown over the question of intellectual such as working to stimulate foreignof U.S. products covered by certain ofproperty rights, an evolving body of law consumption or to curb the U.S. federal these agreements increased by about 25%regulating the commerce of ideasin government deficit to free up investmentannually thereafter until the recession ofthis case, primarily the "stealing" of soft- capital. 1990, slowing to about 9% through 1991.ware. The Taiwanese legislature was ad- In total, U.S. sales to Japan of forestvised to pass legislation "acceptable to Public debate A key issue in the public debate on U.S. relations with the Pacific Rim is how to strike a balance between U.S. economic interests and U.S. concern for the promotion of human rights, democracy and regional stability and security. The debate .01$ is colored by the public's perception of S the issues. Just before President Clinton arrived in Tokyo to meet with six leaders of the G7 industrialized world in July 1993, a star- rz tling 64% of Japanese polled described relations with the U.S. as "unfriendly" startling, in part, because at the same time, -LPOILIW9 70% of Americans described relations Rifle between the two countries as "friendly." 14 Unt9E10101-: This annual survey also found that 45% of Americans believe that Japanese companies are competing "unfairly," the highest percentage since the poll was first con- \1 ducted in 1985. And 85% of the Japanese believe the U.S. is blaming Japan for its G.7 own economic problems. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 48 45 PACIFIC RIM

the U.S. or else." The threat was to listJust before the Clinton Administration policy, the concerned parties include the Taiwan as a "Super 301" priority of-reached its decision on MFN status formanagement and employees of export- fender, with the prospect of 100% tariffsChina in late May, the Chinese released agenerating enterpriseswho do not al- on electronic goods. By April, the U.S.long-imprisoned dissident. There are still ways speak with one voice; the various was mollified, and Taiwan was listedsome 3,000 political prisoners languish- agencies of the federal bureaucracy with only as a second-class offender. ing in jails. an interest in or hand on trade policy; the In 1989, President Bush had proposed U.S. Congress; the press; and public a series of talks about structural barriers Restranngii AsianAi exportst opinion. in the Japanese economy that hinder im-Efforts to restrain Asian exports to the Industry associations, such as the U.S. ports, including business practices, gov- U.S. seem to have proven the squeezed-chipmakers' group, have been important ernment spending priorities and laws.balloon maxim of economics: when acatalysts in calling attention to trade The Japanese stipulated that they, too,market is artificially curbed, it reveals it-practices that work to their collective dis- would identify shortcomings in U.S.self elsewhere. Since 1981, Japan has had advantage. Organized labor has fre- business practices, government activities, voluntary export restraints on carsquently worked in concert with industry U.S. savings habits and the educationalshipped to the U.S. During these past 12on trade issues. Although labor unions system that contribute to the trade imbal- years, the annual production of automo-only represent about 20% of the U.S. ance. These trade negotiations broke new biles in the U.S. by Japanese manufactur-work force, they still speak for the lion's ground in covering issues that had neverers alone or in partnership with anshare of employees in industries that are before been considered the concerns ofAmerican enterprise grew from none tostruggling to compete globallythe foreign governments. 1.4 million units in 1992. automakers and the steelmakers, for ex- In another case of searching for a rem- In 1985, President Ronald Reaganample. Within the federal bureaucracy, edy for allegedly unfair trade practices,called for the removal of the voluntaryexport-oriented industries have tradition- the U.S. manufacturers of semiconduc-export limits on Japanese cars. The Japa-ally had the ear of the Commerce Depart- tors, the silicon chips that are the basicnese government nevertheless decided toment. Recently three Commerce rulings building-blocks of computers, corn-extend these rules and to raise the limit to on trade matters that favored U.S. complained formally about their Japanese2.3 million cars, a ceiling that has stuck panies at the expense of foreign competi- counterparts. Prior to the chip talks andsince then. The value of Japanese exportstors were overturned by either a U.S. - the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on to the U.S. has risen slightly, even thoughbased or an international court. In one Japanese electronic goods, U.S. semicon- the ceiling has not been reached. case, the court went so far as to order the ductors claimed only 8.6% of the Japa- return of penalties to a Japanese ball nese market, while claiming 56% of the to trade negotiations bearing company. worldwide market outside Japan. By latePresidential candidate Clinton promised The U.S. Trade Representative, the 1992, U.S. chipmakers had reached theira new understanding of trade as an inte-country's chief negotiator, also tends to 20% market share in Japan. This increase gral part of creating jobs and as thelisten to an industry's perspective. In probably created about 114,000 new jobscenter of his foreign policy. Early in hisfact, because of the success of semicon- in the U.S. during the past six years. Administration, Clinton identified four ductor manufacturers in gaining access to While job-creation has been the pri-factors bearing on the U.S. internationalJapan, speculation now centers on which mary goal of the Clinton Administra- position:the federal budget deficit;industry will push next for a similar mar- tion's trade policy, the President has alsoworker productivity; technology policy; ket-opening agreement in Japan or else- explicitly tied the U.S. emphasis on hu-and the emergence of trade issues from where. man rights to trade issues. In renewingunder the blanket of security concerns. The U.S. Congress also gives voice to standard trade privileges (dubbed mis-The extent to which the Clinton Admin-exporters' concerns and to the concerns leadingly most-favored nation or MFNistration can secure its trading partners' of those companies' employees. As an status) for China in June 1993, Clintoncooperation depends in part on whichinstitution, Congress has typically been a declared that 1994's renewal will be con-domestic interest group is pushing orvehicle for protectionist sentiment. The tingent on progress on human rights. Thepulling, and how hard. Members of Congress from large auto- U.S. also threatened the Indonesians with While the Clinton Administration hasproducing states, such as Michigan and punitive trade tariffs for their handling ofrevived the Super 301 designations, theMissouri, have been particularly outspo- a separatist movement in East Timor. U.S. trade team has backed away fromken in favor of restraining Japanese ex- The clout the U.S. wields in bothautomatic retaliatory measures in theports and promoting U.S. exports. This cases comes from serving as a ready mar-event that industry market-share targetscongressional posture has proved useful ket for Chinese and Indonesian goods. In are not met. The U.S. is pressing the at times to the interests of free trade. When other words, the U.S.trade deficitJapanese to increase imports from alltalks have come to an impasse, U.S. ne- provides an incentive to the Chinese andcountries to soften the image of selfish-gotiators have been able to remind a the Indonesians to be cautious. Last year,ness. As a senior U.S. trade official re-reluctant party of a more severe alterna- in fact, the Chinese went out of their way marked in describing the Administra- tive pending in the halls of Congress. to steer contracts to U.S. business enter-tion's policy, "Nothing is sacrosanct; Popular opinion in the U.S. is re- prises and permitted 100% foreign-anything is possible. We're not con-flected in the congressional inclination ownership ventures. The impact on Indo-strained by particular ideologies." toward protectionism. People who be- nesia is not yet clear, but, the U.S. pres- Ideology, maybe not, but interest lieve they have lost their jobs because of sure has achieved some results in China. groups, certainly. With respect to tradeforeign competition are much easier to 46 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 49 0I I PACIFIC RIM identify than those who benefit from international trade. But perhaps even more to the point, protectionist sentiment ebbs and flows with the unemployment rate. The slow-paced recovery over the last two years after a recession marked by massivelay-offsby someofthe country'slargest employersamong them General Motors and IBMengen- dered a collective sense of the fragility of the American economy. U.S. trade policy options What should be the balance between pressure and cooperation in formulating U.S. trade policy with respect to the Pa- A. cific Rim? t=1 1. Should the U.S. try to pressure those Pacific Rim countries with which 1 Nan.. it runs a trade deficit to open their 111, markets to U.S. goods by threatening to f, impose quotas or other trade barriers? AT THE APEC MEETINGin Seattle, U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor (left) confers with Yes: Trade barriers maintained by Ja- U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. pan and other Pacific Rim economies are depriving American exporters of a level competitive. Those who would prefer tosuch as South Korea, Thailand and, up to playing field and workers of viable em-emphasize savings and discourage con-a point, China, than U.S. pressure and ployment.Making somestructural sumption would contend that the low ratethreats of retaliation. Only one Chinese changes in the U.S. economy may be in of savings in this country compared withdissident was released prior to the re- order, but the benefits will take time toothers contributes to the trade deficit.newal of the country's MFN status, a to- show up. In the meantime, the U.S.People who doubt the centrality of sav-ken gesture. The cause of human rights should use persuasion and, if necessary,ings and consumption would point to the in China would be better advanced by threats to open markets for its exports. specific trade barriersthe raising oractively promoting U.S. service indus- No: Focusing on barriers, rather thanlowering thereofand their impact ontries there. This would have the added looking for avenues of cooperation, onlythe balance. And those who raise an eye-benefit of reducing the U.S. current- alienates partners whose markets are im-brow at industrial policy would contendaccount deficit. portant to us. Trade barriers, moreover,that government has rarely succeeded in Similarly arms control issues are not don't work: obstacles can spur the tar-pickingwinnersinafree-marketvulnerable to trade pressures. Any coun- geted country to export higher valueeconomy. try looking to buy weapons will succeed goods to the U.S., or the exporters simply 3. Should the U.S. use trade toon the open market. Unilateral U.S. at- move their enterprises to another country,pressure countries, in particular China tempts to curb those purchases only hurts entirely circumventing the barrier. Theand Indonesia, on human rights andthe U.S. defense industry. U.S. should instead focus on the struc-arms control issues? 4. Should the U.S. end the trade tural problems in the U.S. economy that Yes: The record shows that the Chi-embargo on Vietnam? contribute to trade deficits, target morenese respond to threats to their trade sta- Yes: The U.S. is the only country that directly the ways that government cantus with the U.S. by easing the repressionmaintains a trade embargo and its lever- effectively help foster job creation and, inof antigovernment activism. Similar pres-age is limited. The boycott hurts U.S. its relations with trade partners, follow asure should be effective in the case of In-businesses, which are rapidly losing op- policy of inclusion and engagementdonesia: because its exports to the U.S.portunities to invest and trade with this rather than exclusion. (and the U.S. trade deficit) are growing, market of 72 million, more than it does 2. What domestic policies would beIndonesia will want to protect its export-Vietnam. More contacts could help open most beneficial in restoring balance toers by complying with U.S. demands to Vietnamese society and increase the U.S. trade relations with Asia? Cuttingrespect human rights. pressure on the Vietnamese government the federal budget deficit? Encourag- No: Pressure on either human-rightsto improve its human rights practices. ing savings and discouraging con-or arms-control issues may work to a No: The Vietnamese government is a sumption? Promoting export-orientedlimited extent but at the expense of more dictatorship with which the U.S. has a "industries of the future"? Or should important goals. A preferable policy is tonumber of unresolved issues, including all three areas be emphasized equally?expand trade, investment and economicaccounting for American servicemen Proponents of cutting the federal bud-cooperation with the rest of the Pacificwho were missing in action in the Viet- get would argue that its ballooning hasRim. Economic growth has been morenam War. Lifting the embargo would de- gobbled up investment capital that should effective in spawning political reformprive U.S. negotiators of their most effec- be working to make U.S. industry more and democratization, notably in countriestive leverage. ffi GREAT DECISIONS 1994 47 50 PACIFIC RIM

actions between individual businesses?6. Which remedies would be most effec- DISCUSEON tive in setting the imbalanced trade rela- 3. Is there a relationship between in-tionship between the U.S. and Japan on Q SMON creasedarmspurchasesandtradean even keel: currency revaluation or surplusses in the Pacific Basin? structural changes to the U.S. and/or the Japanese economies? 1. What are some of the differences be- 4. Who wins most from freer trade? tween Asia and the U.S. that cause diffi- Who loses most? In the U.S.? In Asia? 7. Should trade negotiations with the culties in business relationships? What People's Republic of China be tied to the contributes to an understanding of those 5. The U.S. has tried various measures tocountry's record on human rights? Should differences? increase its exports to Japan. What haspressure or cooperation be the guiding worked most effectively: punitive tariffs?principles in negotiations with Taiwan 2. Which are more important in creatingpromoting export-oriented industries? orover intellectual property rights? Should trade imbalances: the large economic demanding market-share targets for indi-the U.S. try to restrain the arms race in forces, such as how much we save or vidual industries? Which measure seemsAsia through trade talks? Should the trade spend; or the more detailedtrans- the most fair? embargo with Vietnam be lifted?

Klare, Michael T., "The Next Great Arms Race." Foreign Af- D fairs, Summer 1993, pp. 136-152. Hampshire College Profes- sor Klare sees economic growth as possibly propelling regional CMCES powers into conflicting claims over resources and waterways.

Sesser, Stan, "Opium War Redux." The New Yorker, Septem- Bergsten, C. Fred, and Noland, Marcus, Reconcilable Differ-ber 13, 1993, pp. 78-89. A close look at how trade restrictions ences?: United States-Japan Economic Conflict. Washing-work, and how U.S. trade negotiators have set aside health ton, D.C., Institute for International Economics, 1993. 271 pp. concerns. $19.95 (paper) The authors, an APEC adviser and a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, propose rem-Spero, Joan E., "The New Centrality of Economics: The U.S. edies to trade frictions that draw on elements of managed trade.and the Asia-Pacific Region." U.S. Department of State Dis- patch, October 18, 1993, pp. 728-32. The under secretary for Burstein, Daniel, Turning the Tables: A Machiavellian Strat-economic affairs explains the linkage between domestic eco- egy for Dealing with Japan. New York, Simon & Schuster,nomic strength and U.S. foreign policy and details America's 1993. 256 pp. $22.00. The Librarian of Congress discusses thestakes in the Pacific. growing interdependence of the U.S. and Japanese economies and suggests ways to make the most of their disparate strengths. ASIA RESOURCE CENTER,P.O. Box 15275, Washington, D.C. Denoon, David B.H., Real Reciprocity: Balancing U.S. Eco- 20003; (202) 547-1114.Provides information on the peoples, nomic and Security Policies in the Pacific Basin. New York,cultures and effects of U.S. policy in Asia and the Pacific. Of- Council on Foreign Relations, 1993. 110 pp. $14.95 (paper). fers reports, studies, audiovisuals, issue summaries, press ser- The author favors neither gradualism nor protectionism but avices, curriculum material or training, speakers bureau and staff give-and-take over security and trade issues. members to speak.

Drucker, Peter F., "The End of Japan, Inc.?" Foreign Affairs, THE CLAREMONT INSTITUTE,250 West First St., Suite 330, Spring 1993, pp. 10-15. Professor Drucker argues that theClaremont, Calif. 91711; (909) 621-6825.The Asian Studies breakdown of government-guided economic policy in JapanCenter of the Claremont Institute for the Study of Statesman- will result in tougher competition. ship and Political Philosophy is a conservative research organization that publishes books, reports and studies. Goldstein, Steven M., "China at the Crossroads: Reform After Tiananmen." Headline Series No. 298. New York, Foreign EAST-WEST CENTER,1777 East-West Rd., Honolulu, Hawaii 96848; Policy Association, 1992. 128 pp. $11.25. Professor Goldstein(808) 944-7111. A major research institution founded by the summarizes the significance of Tiananmen Square in relation U.S. Congress that focuses on economic, social, cultural, politi- to China's reform movement and examines Sino-Americancal and environmental issues affecting the Asia-Pacific-U.S. relations. region. Publishes newsletters, reports and curricular material.

Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Eco- PACIFIC BASIN INSTITUTE,7 East Mission St., Suite C, Santa Bar- nomic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000.bara, Calif. 93101; (805) 687-2378.Promotes U.S. interest New York, Random House, 1987. 677 pp. $15.00 (paper). Aand understanding in the Pacific region and strengthens trans- useful perspective on where trade policies can lead nations by aPacific communication. Publishes brochures and distributesa Yale professor. He believes that, having reached a stage often-part documentary entitled "The Pacific Century," with ac- overextension, the U.S. is likely to decline as a Great Power. companying text and workbook. 48 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 51 DEFENSE PRIORITIES of a hostile and aggressive regime in Moscow would not affect this new equa- tion, at least for the foreseeable future. Says retired Army Lt. Gen. William E. Odom, former director of the National Defense: redefng Security Agency: "The decay in the former Sovietmilitaryisso great that...they're not going to be a problem U.S. needs and for anyone except themselves and their immediate neighbors." priorities emilitarization This unexpected geopolitical tectonic shift With the evaporation of the Soviet threat, U.S. military has major consequences for all. Most no- policymakers are struggling to revamp forces and doctrines tably, the relentless superpower nuclear arms race has ground to a halt. For de- suitable to an ambiguous post-cold-war era. cades, the Soviet Union and the U.S. aimed tens of thousands of nuclear war- by David C. Morrison heads at each other, poised to unleash global Armageddon at a moment's notice. Washington and Moscow have now

0 retired the vast bulk of their tactical, or 2 short-range, nuclear weaponry. Under the strategic arms reduction treaty (Start II), N 6 both powers are committed to reducing their arsenals of long-range weapons to 3,500 warheads apiece by 2003 or sooner. That still represents an annihilating military potential; some observers argue that much deeper nuclear arms reductions are in order. And there is reason to worry about what might happen to the many undismantled nuclear weapons crowding depots in a former Soviet Union roiled by political turmoil. But the dire nuclear hair-trigger, at least, has been uncocked for now. The so-called new world order has not

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LES ASPIN(left) and General Cohn L. Powell, Chairman of the Joint necessarily benefited everyone, however. Chiefs of Staff, testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee in April 1993 on the subjectMuch has been written about the disloca- of the fiscal 1994 defense posture. tions afflicting the former Soviet Union in the cold war's wake. An estimated URING A RECENToff-the-recordmilitary confrontation between Washing-25% of Soviet gross domestic product conversation with a reporter inton and Moscow. (GDP), after all, was dedicated to de- his Pentagon office, a Defense In a succession of head-spinning fense. Rather less well-recognized is how Department official remarked, only half-events, however, beginning with theprofoundly the U.S., too, was militarized facetiously, that the U.S. military estab-crumbling of the Berlin Wall in 1989 andby the superpower stand-off. lishment confronted an institutionally di-culminating in the formal dissolution of Until the Korean War of 1950-53, the sastrous "threat meltdown." the Warsaw Pact and then the SovietU.S. had never supported a large stand- For four decades, American armedUnion itself in 1991, this central rationale ing military. And yet, in 1987, a post- forces had based their budgets, weaponsfor the huge standing force that the U.S. Vietnam peak year, almost 8 million projects and war plans on the most chal-had rebuilt for the Korean War and hadAmericans drew a paycheck from the lenging and apocalyptic of scenarios:maintained ever after simply meltedDefense Department in one fashion or global conventional and nuclear war withaway. anotheras full-time soldiers, Pentagon the Soviet Union. This "Soviet threat" Not long ago, the Soviet Unionbureaucrats, defense industry workers or seemed as immutable as a law of physics. fielded some 3.5 million active-dutyregularly drilling military reservists. For Americans born after the onset of thetroops. But Russia's armed forces have DAVID C. PAORRISONis national .security cold war it was almost impossible to con- today shrunk to 1.2 million. The road tocorrespondent for National Journal, a weekly ceive of a global political system notreform in Russia is rocky and rife with magazine of government and politics published dominated by the bipolar ideological anduncertainty, of course, but even the rise in Washington, D.C. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 49 52 DEFENSE

These cold warriors ac- sole surviving superpower? counted for an astonishing In off-the-record com- 6.5% of the U.S. work ments tendered last May, force. Peter Tarnoff, the under- That's a lot of "rice secretary of state for politi- bowls." And many of those cal affairs, spoke of "set- national security rice bowls ting limits on the amount of are now being shattered. American engagement... U.S. military spending is around the world." sliding from roughly $300 Thoseremarkswere billion a year in fiscal year promptly repudiated by the 1990 to about $250 billion White House. In fact, the by 1998. Of that, approxi- Clinton Administration has mately $45 billion is bud- set for itself a potentially geted for weapons pur- expansive foreign policy chases in fiscal 1994. No goalthe "enlargement" of question, that is a lot of the democraticsphere money compared to what around the globe. But, na- most nations spend on 0 1993 BOK-AKRON BEACON JOURNAL tional security adviser An- arms. All the same, it is only half the sum unique circumstances that fostered thethony Lake cautioned in explaining this that the U.S. devoted to buying militaryunprecedentedly broad allied coalition policy, "there will be relatively few [in- hardware in the mid-1980s. that triumphed so handily over Iraq. stances] that justify our military interven- As a result, the arms industry is under- tion." going an unprecedented shake-out. As New roles and missions If anything, though, even as the total many as 2.5 million defense workers may While trimming back to force levels not force shrinks, U.S. troops are more active have to find new work by the decade'sseen since before the Korean War, theplayers on the global stage now than they close. The same goes for tens of thou-U.S. military is thus also now compelledgenerally were while "containing" the sands of troops as the armed forces de-to reinvent itself, to identify a new set ofSoviet Union. This frenzy of activity has cline from the 2.2 million personnel keptjustifying roles and missions for a worldbeen prompted largely by a shift in focus on active duty in the 1980s to 1.4 millionsuddenly transformed. to new, nontraditional military missions, by the end of the decade (see box on p. Reporting the results of a protractedmost prominently international peace- 57). Pentagon study, the so-called Bottom-Upkeeping and humanitarian relief. Congress and the executive branch areReview, Defense Secretary Les Aspin thus floating a plethora of programs de-last September listed what he termed the Peacetime engagement signed to ease the conversion of indus- four primary "dangers that face the U.S.Military relief and rescue missions are tries and to retrain workers for civiliannow in the post-cold-war, post-Sovietnothing new. But the scale and promi- production. world." nence of such endeavors today are nov- The personnel drawdown is but one of First, is the "unpredictable challenge"elties, as witnessed by the injection of a dizzying range of readjustments withof stemming the proliferation of nuclearU.S. troops into famine- and civil war- which the Pentagon must now grapple.weapons. Second, is the "regional dan- wracked Somalia in December 1992. The Gone, for instance, are the days whengers" posed by a "handful of bad guys"fielding of a handful of U.S. "tripwire" anticommunism served as the primary orin developing nations that "can threatentroops to Macedonia in war-torn former even sole rationale for U.S. military in-American interests or American allies."Yugoslavia in 1992 might also foretell tervention overseas. Third, is "dangers to democracy," or en-the deployment of a far larger force to The December 1989 invasion ofsuring that the former Soviet republicskeep the peace in Bosnia, should a peace Panama to depose strongman Manuel A. and other emerging states follow a peace-ever be agreed upon there. Noriega, strikingly, was the first large-ful path to reform. And, fourth, Aspin When U.S. forces ended up in actual scale military incursion since World Warsaid, is "something that we've never re-combat in Somalia, seeking to hunt down II that the U.S. did not justify in terms ofally explicitly addressed before,... theclan leader Mohammed Farah Aidid, this countering Soviet penetration. Even thedangers of a weak economy." peacekeeping task became a "peacemak- U.S. naval patrols launched in the Persian This hodge-podge of priorities seemsing," or "peace enforcement" mission. Gulf in 1987 to fend off Iranian attacksa far cry from the simpler era when theAfter all, when there is no peace to keep, on Kuwaiti oil tankers were sold to Con-challenges confronting the Pentagon outside forces, should they choose to in- gress largely as driven by a need to offsetcould be neatly summed up in its annual volve themselves, will have to make the Soviet presence in the Gulf. threat booklet, Soviet Military Power. Nopeace. The Pentagon subsumes all such The national interest propelling thewonder President Bill Clinton was re-missions under the rubric simply of 1991 Persian Gulf war that pushed Iraqcently moved to remark, with mock nos-"peace operations." out of Kuwait could not have been moretalgia, "Gosh, I miss the cold war." Although engulfed in controversy, this straightforwardprotecting the petro- The question is, does an increasinglyhigh-profile peacekeeping role seems to leum that nourishes industrial society. introspective American public have thebe here to stay. This year, for the first But few analysts expect a reprise of thestomach to play the role of the world'stime, the Pentagon inserted a line item in 50 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 53 OPIC DE FE SSE 5 its annual budget to cover peacekeeping, opment agencyerecting bridges, dams peace dividend now that the long, costly humanitarian assistance and disaster re-and other elements of economic infra-cold war is finally over and won. In lief. And the U.S. Atlantic Command, structureand as a tutor in American 1990, the U.S. budgeted $301.3 billion one of the five U.S. regional commandsdemocratic valuesinstilling overseasfor national defense. In 1993, the figure that cover the planet, is being rejiggeredmilitaries with the virtues of civilian con-was $273 billion. And, by 1997, new to act as the lead agency to plan andtrol, for example. spending on national security is slated to carry out such missions. That's a tall orderto play not onlybottom out at $246 billion, before start- If some elements in the Pentagon have global policeman but also global handy-ing to edge upward again. their waymost notably the Army Corpsman and global schoolmarm. While the While not as deep a cut as some of Engineers and the Special OperationsPentagon leadership has not formally re-would like to see, at better than $50 bil- forces, meaning the Green Berets andjected "peacetime engagement" in itslion the defense reduction between 1990 other commando unitsthe militarymost broadly defined form, neither has itand 1997 is no small potatoesespe- could wind up adopting an even more-formally embraced it. Meanwhile, thecially when the defense budget's trajec- expansive version of the humanitarianconcept continues to crop up in Armytory is viewed in terms of inflation-admission. doctrine manuals. justed dollars. In "constant" dollar terms, Called "peacetime engagement," the In any event, this is precisely the sortthe Pentagon stands to lose more than idea, as the Army put it in a recent report, of policy question now being debated$100 billion, or better than 30% of its ac- is to use the "coordinated application ofand decided in Washington. How muchtual spending power from 1990-97. But, political, economic, informational andcan the nation afford to spend on the still, why hasn't the U.S. realized a richer military means to promote stability andmilitary in an era of general belt-tighten- peace dividend? The reasons, largely, to counteract violence worldwide." ing? And precisely what sort of tasks canhave to do with the peculiar exigencies of In other words, the U.S. military and should be assigned to this post-cold-federal budgeting. would act in troubled nations as a devel- war force? For one thing, the federal budget deficit in 1992 climbed to a whopping $290 billion, an all-time high. This year, fiscal 1994, the deficit will still run about $253 How much is enough? billion. This seemingly unstemmable tide of red ink means that you would have to THE waning days of previous Ameri-dividend" as the fiscal resources directed wipe out the entire Defense Department, can warsWorld War II, Korea,against a military foe are refocused ontotally abolishing the military, to elimi- Vietnamhave typically been markeddomestic needs. nate the budget deficit. In this light, one by mounting anticipation of a "peace Similarly, many Americans want theirmight say that our peace dividend has al- Arms and the Presidents U.S. defense outlays as a share of GDP Truman Eisenhower Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush Cinton 12 -12 11.9%

10 9.1%

6.3% 6 FY 1994 4.1% FY 1998 1, 3.0%-4

I 1 I 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Source: Department of Defense Rei@d vek.c5

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 51 54 DEFENSE

ready long been used up, thanks to deficitrean War, 11.9% of U.S. GDP was con-tary spending, opinions differ on how spending. sumed by the military. At the apex of theimmediately the hollowness threat really For another thing, Pentagon plannersbuildup under President Ronald Reagan, looms. But few experts argue seriously have tended to build unrealistic expecta-Pentagon spending accounted for 6.3%that preserving readiness will not pose a tions of future spending growth into theirof GDP. By 1998, however, only 3% ofmajor challenge in the years ahead. budget projections for future years. As a American GDP will go for defense. After all, preserving readinessor the result, much Pentagon budget cutting military's ability to pull up its socks and consists of whittling these inflated expec- Hollow forces? rush off to war at a moment's noticeis tations about spending down to some- Defense in America is more than a bul-the most venerated of sacred military thing approaching fiscal reality. wark of national interests and security. It cows in Washington. "The worst thing In his last budget, submitted in Janu- is also a jobs program. Over and abovethat can happen to a man with a green ary 1992, for example, President George any objective assessment of the futureeyeshade is to fall off his stool," Senate Bush forebast a 1997 defense budget ofgeopolitical lay of the land, this fact ofArmed Services Committee stalwart John $290.6 billion. President Clinton's firstdomestic political life will likely deter-McCain (R-Ariz.) says of the defense budget, submitted in March 1993, fore- mine the floor below which defense bud-budget cutters. "The price of going hol- sees spending at least $40 billion less on gets and force levels will not be allowedlow is body bags." defense in 1997. As the oft-quoted clichéto fall. "Right now, we've got the best, most has it, it's hard to cram 10 pounds of de- Besides which, as always, there isready force in the world," Defense Secre- fense program into a 5-pound budgetconsiderable disagreement over howtary Aspin asserted in May 1993. But "to bag. much is enough for defense. "Thekeep it that way," he said, "we're going After conducting his exhaustive Bot-Clinton defense budget plan for fiscalto have to do something that has proved tom-Up Review of the future defenseyear 1994 and beyond is adequate to very, very difficult in the past, and that is, program, for instance, Aspin discoveredmeet the defense needs of the era andwe're going to have to maintain readi- that his new, ostensibly leaner-and-support forces planned for that period,"ness during a major drawdown of our meaner plan would exceed the $1.2 tril- according to Ronald V. Dellums (D-Ca-forces." lion that the Clinton Administrationlif.), the liberal chairman of the House As Aspin and others have pointedly planned to spend from fiscal 1995-99 byArmed Services Committee. "Providingobserved, this cannot be done without $13 billion. Military forces are expensive larger forces and budgets than thoseshedding now-unneeded cold-war infra- to maintain, and they always seem to costplanned would not materially improvestructuremost notoriously, excess mili- more than planners expect. our national security, and could in fact tary bases. That's no mean feat. Shutting Finally, as witnessed by the fierce re- impair it by impeding economic growth,"down these facilities is a traumatic pros- sistance with which communities and he says. pect for the communities in which they their representatives on Capitol Hill greet On the other hand, Rep. Jim Kolbeare located, necessitating the establish- Pentagon efforts to shutter costly military (R-Ariz.), blasted the 1994 defense billment of an elaborate base closure com- bases that no longer serve any purpose,because it "will leave our proud fightingmission process and strict rules of the military spending is resistant to sharpforces naked, without adequate resourcesroad to keep affected Members of Con- cuts because it represents jobs and votes. or manpower. I oppose this legislationgress from keeping unnecessary bases in The wheels of the electoral systembecause of the size and timing of the cuts operation indefinitely. tend to be greased with the fat of govern-to the military," he added, "cuts leading The danger is that disproportionate ment largesse, the bulk of which is ren-to the 'hollow forces' reminiscent of thecuts in the Pentagon's operations and dered at the Pentagon in the form of mili-Carter Administration." maintenance (O&M) budget, the easiest tary installations, weapons contracts and As with the question of overall mili-wedge of the defense budget to cut, will National Guard armories. slice into readiness. If so, Members of Congress may training hours would be re- demand a "peace divi- duced, and so, also, combat dend," but when shrinking readiness. Stocks of ammu- military budgets tighten nitionandspareparts belts in their home dis- would dwindle, and the tricts, they leap into the maintenance of military legislative trenches to de- real estate and hardware fend their piece of the pork would be deferred. Sagging barrel. morale, sapped by lagging It may thus turn out, as pay andoverstretched former Defense Secretary forces, could eat into reen- Dick Cheney was fond of listment rates and the re- saying, that the "dividend cruitment of top-quality en- of peace is peace," and .1 listeesvital factors for an little more. If nothing else, all-volunteer military. though, the relative burden The good news is that of defense is undeniably on though the O&M account the wane. During the Ko- NV SO e001. k0 S 510OR l'EFENSE CONVERSION grew more slowly during REPRINTED BY PERMISSION: TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES 52 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 55 DEFENSE f. the Reagan buildup than Nor has the U.S. tested a spending on weapons pro- nuclear weapon at its un- curement did, it also lost derground proving site in comparatively less ground Nevada since September in the budget fall-off initi- 1992. In July 1993, Presi- ated in the mid-1980s. Di- dent Clinton extended a vided by the number of ac- congressionallyimposed tive-duty troops, in fact, test moratorium for another O&M spending has grown 15 months, a step toward by 28% in real, after-infla- securing a Comprehensive tion terms from fiscal 1980 Test Ban by 1996. to 1993. Bear in mind that U.S.restraintinthis the active-duty force is also arenaalong with that of some 10% smaller today such other acknowledged than in 1980. nuclear powers as Britain, And that means that "we France and Russiais de- can make additional cuts in pendent on no other nation O&M in the future, as the exploding nuclear test de- size of themilitaryis vices. In October 1993, brought down," Steven M. China ignored the entreaties

Kosiak, a senior analyst REPRINTED WITH SPECIAL PERMISSION Of KING FEATURES SYNDICATE of more than 20 nations in with the private Defense conducting a nuclear test. Budget Project, judges. But, he cau- In the end, however, this report was aBut even if the Administration wanted to tioned, "these cuts will have to be dead letter. While concern remains aboutfollow suit with a test of its ownand handled very, very carefully." the atomic ambitions of nations such asthe 1994 budget contains $320 million to Iran and North Korea, the superpowersupport just that optionstiff congres- No more nukes nuclear arms race is indisputably a relicsional opposition is likely to stay its Perhaps the most striking aspect of theof history. Besides Russia, three otherhand. new geopolitical era upon which the U.S. former Soviet republics still have nuclear The U.S. nuclear test moratorium and is embarked is the way in which nuclearweapons on their soil. Belarus has al-the prospect of enactment of a compre- weaponry, so long the very centerpiece ofready begun dismantling these arms, withhensive test ban, proponents argue, set an the cold war, has receded into the wood-U.S. aid. The situation is more compli- example for potential proliferators. More- work. cated with Kazakhstan and Ukraine, bothover, there is no compelling need to test In 1991, the Strategic Air Commandof which hope to parlay their current now that the U.S. is out of the business of commissioned 21 "defense intellectuals," nuclear status into enhanced recognitionproducing new nuclear warheads, testing most of them boasting prior service in the and aid from the outside world. foes contend. Warhead reliability and nuclear weapons complex, to ponder the Pursuant to a 1991 directive from safety modifications can be modeled on role of "nuclear weapons in the newPresident George Bush, all but somecomputers, obviating the need for explo- world order." This panel seemed deter-1,600 tactical nuclear weapons are being sive testing. mined to pursue atomic business as retired. For the first time since the 1950s, Others are not persuaded by this logic. usual. It proposed letting Russia, whosetherefore, the Army and the Marine The Center for Security Policy, a hard-line nuclear testing grounds have been shutCorps deploy no nuclear weapons andWashington think tank, for instance, urges down by nationalist pressures in theNavy ships now routinely patrol with noClinton "to reestablish a modest but nec- neighboring republic of Kazakhstan, testnukes aboard. Meanwhile, the arsenal ofessary underground test program. Doing its warheads in Nevada. It also suggestedlong-range, strategic weapons is slated tootherwise," it says, "will not measurably having Washington, which has no operat-fall from more than 12,000 to no moreaffect proliferation; it will, however, cause ing tritium reactor, buy that perishablethan 3,500 by the turn of the century. possibly catastrophic damage to the long- hydrogen warhead fuel from Moscow. The nuclear weapons production com-run safety, reliability and effectiveness of Even if Russia reduced its atomic arse-plex, managed by the Energy Depart- the U.S. arsenal." nal to only a few hundred warheads, thement, has not generated any tritium gas The fate of another centerpiece of the panel urged, the U.S. should retain thou-for nuclear warheads since 1988, nor anycold-war nuclear arms racethe Strate- sands of them to keep "future major pow-plutonium "pits," the explosive core ofgic Defense Initiative (SDI) or "Star ers like Germany and Japan from believ-atomic weaponry, since 1989. Indeed, itsWars"is more ambiguous. In May ing they, too, should acquire nuclear weap-major activities today are cleaning up the 1993, after ten years of research costing ons." And though Washington pledgedtoxic legacy of a half-century of bombsome $30 billion, Aspin announced the 16 years ago never to employ atomic armsbuilding and dismantling thousands ofdemise of the Pentagon's SDI Organiza- against a non-nuclear adversary that hasretired atomic warheads. In 1994, thetion, which is to be replaced by a Ballis- signed the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, Energy Department will spend $5.5 bil-tic Missile Defense Organization. Con- this panel argued for the creation of alion on environmental compliance andgress cut the funding level by $1 billion "Nuclear Expeditionary Force" for usewaste management, and only $3.8 billionto $3 billion and the main focus will shift against Chinese or "Third World targets."on weapons activities. from striving to defend the continental GREAT DECISIONS 1994 56 53 OPIC 5 DEFENSE U.S. against long-range missile attack to Not so, retorts Dave McCurdy, a Housepolice difficult and bloody conflicts shielding U.S. troops and overseas com-Armed Services Committee Democratthroughout the world." bat operations against shorter-range mis- from Oklahoma. Clinton's "plan is the The larger West European powers siles. Research on means to defend theright answer to the missile threats wesurely could pay more for the common U.S. itself will continue, but at lower lev-face," McCurdy says. "And the political defenseFrance, in fact, is increasing els of effort than in the past. and strategic context will not support any- spending, while Britain is cutting back "Assuming some deployment of the- thing more ambitious." but their leaders face the same domestic ater defenses for crises abroad, the U.S. One thing we can probably count on, political constraints on post-cold-war will be in the curious position of beingwhatever name it goes by, the ever-military spending as do their American ready to defend its allies against missilecontroversial Star Wars program is sure tocounterparts. If burdensharing resent- attack, but incapable of doing so for its continue to provide an element of conten- ments among the American people even- own citizens," the conservative Heritagetious continuity to the defense debate oftually prompt Washington to reduce its Foundation charges. the 1990s. involvement in NATO, it is unlikely that the alliance would survive. Meanwhile, ironically, the former Warsaw Pact states of Eastern Europe are clamoring to join NATO but are being Searching for missions put off for now with promises of in- IN RETROSPECT, one of the most striking cently observed. "If nothing is done tocreased defense cooperation. There is aspects of the cold war was the sheerchange this perception and to place thegood reason for caution. Could a much- size of the overseas troop presence thatAlliance on a new course, I have noexpanded NATO survive as an effective helped underwrite the 40-year policy ofdoubt that U.S. support for our militarymilitary organization, or would it just containing the Soviet Union. presence in Europe will wither, prompt-turn into an ineffectual European "talking Until quite recently, almost 1 million ing congressional action to reduce troop shop"? Similarly, can NATO effectively Americans served overseas on Pentagon- levels and ultimately the alliance willinvolve itself in "out of area" conflicts, related missions. With 100 major U.S. exist in name only." not involving the strict territorial defense basesi.e., those boasting more than 500 Proponents of a powerful U.S. role in of its member-nations, as some have said troopslocated in some 50 countries, NATO argue that the alliance provides ait should? Or would such involvement and hundreds of more minor sites scat- crucial forum for American involvementgenerate controversies that would simply tered around the globe, that figure in-in European affairs, while affording le- tear the alliance apart? cludes 450,000 troops, 391,000 military verage in other arenas of dispute, such as The evolution of NATO will be one family members and 152,000 civiliantrade. And, these NATO boosters add,of the most closely watched defense Pentagon employees. the alliance is a source of stability in an policy dramas of the 1990s. Those numbers, needless to say, areera of geopolitical upheaval on a conti- headed downward. The most dramatic nent that has already sucked the U.S. into Pacific overtures drawdown is in Europe where U.S. ser- two major wars this century. As in Europe, the nations of Asia are vicemen and women are streaming home "The U.S. will not be able to pursue given to worries that the U.S., a powerful from garrisons that have been maintained domestic renewal successfully withoutPacific presence since World War II, is since World War II. In 1988, a year be-peace and stability in Europe," Manfrednow poised to withdraw into some sort of fore the Berlin Wall tumbled down, theWorner, NATO's secretarygeneral,Fortress America. In fact, total U.S. Pentagon supported more than 300,000 cautions. forces in the vast Pacific region are slated active-duty personnel on the ground in At the same time, the savage outbreakto fall from 390,000 today to 350,000 by Europe. That contingent is rapidly head-of communal butchery in the former Yu- the turn of the century. That's only a ing toward a force 100,000 strong. goslavia, and Western Europe's dithering 10% reduction, a fraction of the dramatic Sink much below that level, some as to what to do to stop it, has raised some U.S. drawdown in Europe. analysts contend, and the U.S. contribu- serious questions about the nature of But U.S. forces "forward-based" on tion to the 16-nation North Atlantic"peace and stability" in Europe and whatforeign soil in Asia have already fallen Treaty Organization (NATO) will ap-role NATO might realistically play in the by 28% from the cold-war peak, down to proximate that of tiny Belgium or Den-future. These concerns dovetail with theabout 98,000 personnel, the vast bulk of mark. In that case, they warn, the U.S.long-running "burdensharing" issue, or them stationed in Japan and South Korea. would become a marginal player in athe suspicion on this side of the Atlantic Russia may have exited the Pacific military machine dominated by Germanthat the U.S. shoulders more than its fair stage, for the time being. But, from the forces. share of global military duties. vantage of various Asian capitals, new So what? responds another school of "Our European friends need to,I threatsarespringinguptotake thought, which holds that NATO has out-think, be ready to assume more of theMoscow's place. China is the power lived its usefulness. Many Americansburden than they've indicated thus farwary Asian nations are watching most "believe that NATO is a cold-war institu-that they would," Sen. Robert Byrd (D-closely. Fueled by an economy that is tion whose relevance has now passed andW.Va.) argued during a recent Senateballooning by better than 12% annually, that our military presence in Europe isArmed Services Committee hearing.China's military budget in 1991 marked nothing more than a cold-war hangover," "We have to keep in mind that we can'ta 50% increase over its defense spending Sen. William V. Roth Jr. (R-Del.) re- furnish the manpower and the armies to in 1989. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 54 57 DEFENSE Mightily impressed by the U.S.'s high-technology trouncing of Iraq in 1991, China's generals are investing their new-found wealth in upgrading their 3 million-strong forces with modern equipment, much of it purchased from Russia at bargain-basement prices. "Now that the Soviet menace is gone, China is a menace," Kigoaki Kikuchi, formerly Japan's ambassador to the United Nations (UN) and now an adviser to the Foreign Ministry, asserts. "And North Korea is a menace. And some people believe South Korea is, too." This vague sense of unease is mutual. "Even after unification [with North Ko- rea], South Korea should maintain some kind of military alliance with the U.S.," Ahn Byung-joon, a political science professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, said. "Korea is a place where the military interests of the great powers intersect. To be blunt, we need U.S. forces as a constraint on Japanese military capabilities, as well as on China's." U.S. MARINES BEGINa raid on Mogadishu's Bakara market. The raid, dubbed Operation Washington has the perfect resume to Nutcracker, swept the large market in Somalia's capital for arms and munitions. act as honest broker, Ahn added, because "it so happens that the U.S. is the leastexercises. Thanks to Arab sensitivities Vietnam syndrome is alive and well. hated of the Pacific powers. The U.S. isabout hosting a conspicuous American Among other things, this means a hy- less interested in territorial ambitions andpresence, much of the gear for a futurepersensitivity to the prospect of Ameri- only in maintaining a balance of power."U.S. intervention in the region is de-can deaths in overseas interventions. It Indeed, U.S. officials have repeatedlyployed on special cargo ships afloat inseems unlikely that a President will ever stressed their willingness to play this bal-the Indian Ocean. again be able to secure reelection after ancing role in a region that annually con- presiding over 15,000 combat deaths dur- sumes $140 billion in U.S. exports, or Pax Americana ing his first term, as did President Rich- one third of the total. In the immediate wake of the Gulf war,ard M. Nixon in 1972. Elsewhere, Washington is also lower- with its promise of a multilateral new "This is not an abstract intellectual ing its military profile. As mandated by world order coordinated through a newlyexercise," Gen. Colin L. Powell, the out- the 1979 Panama Canal Treaty, the head-aggressive UN, enthusiasm ran high forgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of quarters of the U.S. Southern Command,peacekeeping as a major mission for theStaff, said of peacekeeping missions in with its 10,000 American troops, must beU.S. military. UN Secretary Generalhis valedictory address last September. relocated by 1999. Under the glide pathBoutros Boutros-Ghali's 1992 bid to cre- "It is nothing less than sending young planned by the Pentagon, only 5,000 U.S. ate a permanent, standing UN peacekeep-American sons and daughters off to a for- soldiers will remain by the end of 1995. ing force was even accorded a respectfuleign land to fight other sons and daugh- But no final decision has yet been made hearing in Washington. ters, perhaps to kill them and to be about the future location of the Southern More recently, however, this enthusi- killed.... We are not committing merce- Command. Most likely, it will end upasm has begun to dim, snuffed out, asnaries. We are committing sons and shifting to southern Florida. much as anything else, by an October 3 daughters." In contrast with other parts of thedebacle in Mogadishu, Somalia, in which Drawing on the lessons of Vietnam, world, the U.S. military presence is actu- 18 U.S. servicemen died trying to trackjust like his predecessor, the new Chair- ally increasing in the Persian Gulftodown clan leader Mohammed Farahman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. John just over 20,000. Besides the massive in- Aidid. Shalikashvili also has no use for the infrastructure it already boasts in Saudi Following the smashing victory in thecrementalism that marked the American Arabia, Washington has recently signedPersian Gulf, U.S. commentators were style of warfare in Vietnam. defense pacts with Bahrain, Kuwait andfond of proclaiming that the U.S. had "I believe," he said in his confirmation Qatar, while renewing an existing agree- finally overcome the "Vietnam syn-testimony, "that whether we are fighting ment with Oman. drome." In fact, the conduct of thatDesert Storm to defend vital interests of The details remain secret, but theseconflict, marked as it was by a clearlyours or whether we are committing post-Gulf war accords are said to provide stated set of military goals and a steadfastforces to lesser interests, might...they be for the "pre-positioning" of military gear,emphasis on keeping U.S. casualties tohtimanitarian operations or whatnot, that naval and air access and joint trainingan absolute minimum, showed that thewe use decisive force. And by decisive I

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 55 58 I 0 I C 5 DEFENSE mean that we bring to the table enoughmissiles fired from Soviet submarines, need all that much prompting from Capi- force to decide the outcome in our fa-the Backscatter was now being sold as atol Hill to put themselves forward as so- vor." means to spot drug couriers winging cial service agencies. In its annual report This mindset, in turn, means an ex-across the Gulf of Mexico. to Congress two years ago, the Air Force ceedingly high threshold for U.S. military Congress has since cancelled thetouted the 120 overseas relief and rescue involvement in overseas adventures, how- Backscatter radar. And the cocaine inter- missions it had conducted since 1947. "A ever ostensibly noble the cause. Last Sep-diction campaign has never proven allresponse does not necessarily have to be tember, therefore, troubled by the erup-that effective. The Administration thuslethal," that service said. "A helping hand tion into urban warfare of what was meant appears inclined to tilt the drug war's fo-or a clenched fistairpower can, and to be a food relief operation in Somaliacus more toward treatment and otherhas, delivered both." and anxious about potential involvementhomefront efforts. The Army is no-less eager to proffer in securing peace in Bosnia, the Clinton Meanwhile, a host of other non-the helping hand as a raison d'être. Administration narrowed the terms fortraditional missions are being urged upon"While fighting our nation's wars re- participation in future UN missions. the Pentagon. "An unprecedented oppor- mains the Army's principal mission," Lt. U.S. intervention would have to betunity exists to use Defense DepartmentCol. Cole C. Kingseed wrote in the au- justified by clear U.S. national interests,resourcesparticularly the talent andtumn 1992 issue of Parameters, the quar- the new policy states, and only in care-skills of men and women in uniformtoterly journal of the U.S. Army War Col- fully delineated circumstances would themeet some of our pressing domesticlege, "...activities that contribute to the Pentagon outright cede command of itsneeds," Senate Armed Services Commit-general domestic welfare of assisted na- troops to UN control. tee chairman Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), one oftions should become commonplace for Washington's most vociferous boostersthe Army in the post-cold-war environ- Unconventional missions of unconventional roles for the military, ment." In 1988, Congress tapped the Pentagon to has written. Critics fear that this diffusion of focus serve as the "lead agency" in the cam- Among other missions, Nunn has could hamper combat readiness. "As you paign to interdict illegal narcotics at thesaid, military medical teams could con-pull the military away from its primary nation's borders. Even so, in 1989, theduct childhood immunization drives inmission, preparation for war, and turn it Defense Department requested no fund-our cities, combat engineers could re-toward humanitarian missions and civil ing to carry out this mission. The nextspond to national and civil emergencieslaw enforcement missions and so on,... year, however, shortly after the Berlinand the 400,000 African-American andyou weaken its combat capabilities, Wall had so abruptly tumbled down, the90,000 Hispanic men and women in uni-which is dangerous," Harry G. Summers military asked for $1.2 billion with which form could serve as "role models" forJr., a retired Army colonel and military to wage its "war on drugs." minority youth. "I would like to see ouraffairs columnist, argues. A sixth of that sum, interestingly, was military people out in the schools visiting Summers frets about another, longer- to fund the Midwestern portion of the Air people for an hour or two every week,"range peril posed by turning to the armed Force's Over-the-Horizon BackscatterNunn asserts. forces to tackle educational decline, envi- radar network. Originally conceived as a Casting about for post-cold-war roles ronmental devastation, world hunger and device designed to detect nuclear cruiseand missions, the armed services do notthe world's many other woes. "You may also weaken its traditional subservience to civilian control," he says. "If you keep saying [to the military], 'You can do it better than the civilians,' someone may eventually pay attention." Precisely that menace was raised in a now-notorious essay printed in the Win- ter 1992-93 issue of Parameters. Penned by Air Force Lt. Col. Charles J. Dunlap Jr., the article posits a military coup in Washington in the year 2012, a putsch prompted by too much responsibility for too many nonmilitary chores having been loaded onto epauleted shoulders. If the people want us to run the country, the 0 coup leaders reason, why not go all the \0 way? '.41k 44: "In truth, militaries ought to 'prepare fth for war' and leave the 'peace waging' to those agencies of government whose mission is just that," Dunlap insists. But, V 31 then, who is to say precisely what mis- MEMBERS OF THE GERMAN AIR FORCEload pallets of flour onto U.S. Air Force C-130 transport sions are appropriate for the military in planes. The cargo was airlifted to Sarajevo as part of Operation Provide Promise. this uncertain new era? 56 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 59 DEFENSE 5 U.S. policy options A Cold-War Juggernaut Adapts to the New World Order The defense blueprint that the Clinton Administration embraced last September pur- After 40-some years of relative predict-suant to in its "Bottom-Up Review" of post-cold-war military needs would continue ability in waging the cold war with thethe reduction of force structure cutbacks that the Bush Administration had already set Soviet Union, the American armed forcesin train. This table compares key indicators of U.S. military might in fiscal 1986, a suddenly find themselves at a uniquepeak year in the Reagan buildup, to the force levels that Clinton inherited from Bush juncture where almost every element ofin 1993 and the military forces that the United States would possess at the turn of the military policybudgets, overseas de-century under the Bottom-Up Review. Cheaper to maintain, but less-readily deployed, ployments, roles and missionsis up forreserve units train only one weekend per month and two weeks every summer. A di- grabs. Here are only a few of the policy vision contains 18,000 troops, typically, and an air wing, 72 aircraft. options facing Washington as it charts a post-cold-war course for the Pentagon. 1986 1. The U.S. must maintain forces 1993 1999 and bases overseas, even as it reducesTotal Active Duty Troops 2.2 million 1.7 million 1.4 million their numbers. Army Pro: The Soviet Union may have col- Active Divisions 18 14 10 lapsed, but it is still a dangerous world Reserve Divisions 10 8 5 out there. Twice this century, the U.S.Navy has had to land troops in Europe to wage Aircraft Carriers 14 13 12 major wars. Three times this century, it Major Warships 555 443 346 has fought conflicts in Asia. OverseasAir Force garrisons are an insurance policy, deter- Active Fighter Wings 24 16 ring potential conflicts. For that reason, 13 Reserve Fighter Wings 12 its allies want the U.S. to maintain a mili- 12 7 tary presence. And there is good reasonMarine Corps to comply, considering the large volume Active Troops 199,000 182,000 174,000 of U.S. trade with Asia and Europe and Reserve Troops 42,000 42,000 42,000 the U.S. interest in maintaining globalNuclear Forces stability. Ballistic Missile Submarines 37 22 18 Con: Now that the Soviet Union has Strategic Bombers 228 201 184 collapsed, it is time for the U.S. to stop Land-based Missiles 1,007 787 500 playing global policeman. We have plenty of problems here at home that ur- ( 1993 and 1999 figures are drawn from Bottom-Up Review briefing slides; 1986 numbers are gently demand our attention and dollars. derived from various Pentagon reports.) There is no reason why the U.S. should have "a dog in every fight." U.S. interests 3. The U.S. military should tackle acomprehensive test ban. are not directly served by maintainingwide range of unconventional chal- Pro: The arms race is over. The U.S. troops in Europe and Asia. Anyway, it islenges, from disaster relief to stem-has plenty of tried-and-true nuclear wartime that U.S. allies shouldered a greaterming the flow of narcotics across U.S.heads with which to sustain deterrence in share of the burden of maintaining peace, borders. a post-cold-war world. Older warheads stability and Western interests around the Pro: The country cannot afford to al-can be rebuilt according to existing, world. low 1.4 million taxpayer-supported protested designs. And, should modifications 2. The U.S. national defense budgetfessionals to bunker down in garrisonsfor safety purposes be needed, any should be stabilized in the neighbor-and train for potential conflicts that maychanges can be tested on computers. By hood of $250 billion a year. never happen when society has realrejecting nuclear testing, as well as the Pro: The world remains a dangerousneeds now. Many nontraditional mis-production of new nuclear warheads, place rife with powers that, though farsions also serve double-duty as trainingWashington can set a positive example smaller than the Soviet Union, still posefor more traditional combat operations. for potential nuclear proliferators else- potential threats to U.S. interests. To de- Con: The armed forces' primary mis- where in the world. ter aggression and promote stability, $250 sion is defending the U.S. and its inter- Con: The superpower nuclear arms billion is a comparatively small price toests against armed attack. It is a long-race may have ended for now, but a ca- pay. By the turn of the century, this coun- held tradition in the U.S. that the armedpable nuclear deterrent is still needed in a try will be devoting only 3% of total eco- forces should be wielded solely as a bul-world in which potentially hostile nations nomic output to national defense. wark against external threats. Over-are seeking to acquire nuclear weaponry. Con: Currently planned reductions in burdening the armed forces with non-There is no substitute for actual under- defense spending do not begin to reflecttraditional missions will only ensure thatground explosive tests to ensure the safety, the geopolitical revolution of the pastthey will come to woe when it comesreliability and effectiveness of the nuclear half decade. Under the Administration'stime to go to war. arsenal. And there is no assurance that proposal, the U.S. will still spend roughly 4. The U.S. should maintain itspotential proliferators such as Iran and 70% as much on its armed forces as atcurrent nuclear test moratorium andNorth Korea will be dissuaded by an the peak of the cold war. work toward implementing a global American refusal to continue testing. 60 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 57 DEFENSE

Pentagon still plans to garrison 100,000choice? Does America need defending troops in Western Europe and almost asagainst missile attack? DESCUSSRON. many at overseas bases in Asia. Some observers say that we can safely bring all 6. Some policy analysts argue that the QUESTIONS of our troops home now. What do youU.S., as the sole surviving superpower, think? has a humanitarian duty to intervene 1. Annual military spending is scheduled militarily in Bosnia, Haiti and other kill- to fall by some $50 billion, to about $2504. By testing a nuclear device last Octo- ing fields around the world to stop the billion a year. Does this provide a largeber, China created a legal pretext for thebloodshed. How aggressively should the enough "peace dividend," or istheU.S. to follow suit. Would U.S. nationalU.S. pursuethis peacekeeping and ClintonAdministrationcuttingtoosecurity be best served by resuming"peacemaking" mission? deeply? nuclear testing or by sticking with the moratorium and eventually signing onto7. Sen. Sam Nunn and others also want 2. Asian leaders want American troopsa comprehensive test ban? Why? the military to tackle such domestic woes to stay on in the region as an "honest bro- as drug trafficking, urban crime and ker" to keep regional rivalries from spin-5. The Clinton Administration has redi-childhood immunization. Considering the ning out of control. Would this serverected the Strategic Defense Initiativelarge sums that taxpayers invest every American national interests, as you con-away from providing anti-missile de-year in these forces, why shouldn't the ceive them, or not? fenses for the continental US. and towardmilitary help cope with problems here at anti-tactical missile defenses in overseashome? Or do you think this is an inap- 3. Even with the end of the cold war, thetheaters of war. Was this a wise policypropriate use of the armed forces?

Weisner, Jerome B.; Morrison, Philip and Tsipis, Kosta. "End- ing Overkill," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 1993, RINGS AND pp. 12-23. Three liberal Massachusetts Institute of Technology S security experts contend that "the U.S. military budget could be sharply cut while preserving a strong defense."

Allison, Graham K., and Treverton, Gregory F., eds. Rethink- AMERICAN DEFENSE INSTITUTE,1055 North Fairfax St., 2nd Floor, ing America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Alexandria, Va. 22314; (202) 544-4704.. Conducts research on Order. New York, Norton, 1992. 320 pp. $12.95 (paper). In 21 military issues and informs the public of the needs for a strong essays, noted experts trace current and future militarynational defense. Publishes a quarterly journal and newsletter. challenges. CENTER FOR DEFENSE INFORMATION,1500 Massachusetts Ave., Binkin, Martin, Who Will Fight the Next War? The Chang-N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005; (202) 862-0700.Provides ing Face of the American Military. Washington, D.C., Thecurrent information on the U.S. military and supports an effec- Brookings Institution, 1993. 177 pp. $12.95 (paper). A leadingtive defense system without excessive military spending. Pub- military personnel expert assesses the all-volunteer force andlishes the Defense Monitor magazine and offers a large range the career and combat prospects it offers for women, Africanof additional reference material. Americans and reservist "weekend warriors." COMMITTEE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY,1601 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Suite 302, Washington, D.C. 20009; (202) 745-2450.Edu- Kruzel, Joseph, ed., American Defense Annual-1993. New cates the public on U.S. military issues and encourages debate on York, Lexington Books, 1993. 384 pp. $19.95. Published byU.S. military policy. Offers curriculum material, reports and Ohio State University's Mershon Center, this instructive com- books, in addition to organizing workshops and seminars. pendium of articles covers the national security waterfront. COUNCIL ON ECONOMIC PRIORITIES,30 Irving Pl., New York, N.Y. Luck, Edward C., "Making Peace," Foreign Policy, Winter 10003; (212) 420-1133.Conducts policy studies on national 1992-93, p. 137-55. The president of the United Nations Asso- security and military spending issues. Publishes annual report, ciation of the U.S.A. argues for humanitarian intervention as aShopping for a Better World, as well as a monthly newsletter, means to "build a stronger system of collective security." and offers available speakers.

HENRY L.STIMSONCENTER,1350 Connecticut Ave., N.W., Suite Ravenal, Earl C., Designing Defense for a New World Order.304, Washington, D.C. 20036; (202) 223-5956. Analyzes Washington, D.C., Cato Institute, 1991. 82 pp. $9.95. Aban-recent developments in national and international security, doning the current policy of "collective security" for "strategicconcentrating on policy and technology. Publishes books, issues disengagement," this former Pentagon official argues in this pro- summaries and reports, as well as having available speakers. vocative monograph, could yield a substantial peace dividend. INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE AND DISARMAMENT STUDIES,675 Massa- Summers, Harry G. Jr., On Strategy II: A Critical Analysis ofchusetts Ave., 8th Floor, Cambridge, Mass. 02139; (617) 354- the Gulf War. New York, Dell Publishing, 1992. $4.99. This 4337. Studies the nature of military forces in relation to retired Army colonel and military commentator explores thedisarmament. Publishes books and reports and offers available evolution of the U.S. military from Vietnam to the Persian Gulf. speakers. 58 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 61 OPINION BALLOTS How to use the Opinion Ballots: For your convenience, there are two copies of each opinion ballot. Please cut out and mail one ballot only. To have your vote counted, please mail ballots by June 30, 1994. Send ballots to: FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION, 729 SEVENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10019 MBE WIIIIIMMIFIll IM-11111-1111-111111i1M11-1111-1111rEVIE-1111-11111111111111-1M11/11111111111111E-1111 MI ECIECIDED

II I 111 I TOPIC I TOPIC I 5Defense Priorities I 5 Defense Priorities II I I ISSUE A. From roughly $300 billion in 1990, the U.S. I ISSUE A. From roughly $300 billion in 1990, the U.S. 0 p national defense budget is slated to decline to just over national defense budget is slated to decline to just over $250 billion (in current dollars, not adjusted for infla- I $250 billion (in current dollars, not adjusted for infla- II tion) in 1998. This proposed level of defense spending is I tion) in 1998. This proposed level of defense spending is 111 (choose one): I (choose one): 0 I II 1. Too much. I 1. Too much. 2. Too little. 111 N 2. Too little. 0 3. Just about right. p 3. Just about right. 0 I II I III I I I I I I I a I I I First three digits of your zip code: I I I First three digits of your zip code: a IDate: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... I Date: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... ..mmElmilli111111MIMIN11111111111MMIIIIIIIIIII IIIII BIN MI ERII- RtMM 1.....a.... I r 0 I TOPIC I TOPIC I 6 Argentina, Brazil, Chile I 6 Argentina, Brazil, Chile I ISSUE A. A. In its relations with Argentina, Brazil and ISSUE A. In its relations with Argentina, Brazil and 0 Chile, the U.S. should: I Chile, the U.S. should: YES NO I YES NO I1.Strengthen economic and trade ties, I 1. Strengthen economic and trade ties, I particularly to increase U.S. exports I particularly to increase U.S. exports 0 to the region. I to the region. I 2. Support the democratization process I 2. Support the democratization process to ensure that military dictatorship I to ensure that military dictatorship does not recur. does not recur. 121 11 I 3. Provide economic and technical 3. Provide economic and technical II II assistance to address the growing assistance to address the growing I problem of poverty and social needs. I problem of poverty and social needs. II 4. Not intervene in the domestic affairs I 4. Not intervene in the domestic affairs I of the three countries. II the three countries. [I 5. Other, or comment I 5. Other, or comment 1 I 0 O. I I IofFirst three digits of your zip code: First three digits of your zip code: 0 1 pDate:/ /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... 1 Date: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... licu - "- _-- -_s-- --" -_--- mum in_mtirmIII =mum ....,...mum El us meME al LI.Ell 62 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 59 OPINION BALLOTS r-m-mmairso-orm-Nrurw-myromorm-lu- -.-..-Ersolsrmas ------.1lualrimului 1 1 I 0 ISSUEB. Concerning peacekeeping missions overseas, the 1 ISSUEB. Concerning peacekeeping missions overseas, the 1 U.S. should (choose one): U.S. should (choose one): 0 1. Participate only in concert with the UN or other I 1. Participate only in concert with the UN or other nations. I nations. 0.1 2. Take unilateral action if others refuse to act. I 2. Take unilateral action if others refuse to act. I IRegardingother aspects of peacekeeping missions, the U.S. I Regarding other aspects of peacekeeping missions, the U.S.I 0should: I should: I YES NO I YES NO 0 I 1. Engage in such missions only when I 1. Engage in such missions only when I U.S. national interests are at stake. ID I U.S. national interests are at stake. 1 2. Commit troops only when peace can 2. Commit troops only when peace can be established quickly and with little I be established quickly and with little 0 I risk to American lives. I risk to American lives. (-.) 0 I I I 1ISSUE C.With regard to the size of the post-cold-war military, I ISSUE C.With regard to the size of the post-cold-war military,I Ithe U.S. should (choose one): the U.S. should (choose one): I i 1. Retain the 1.6 million-strong "base force" advo- I 1. Retain the 1.6 million-strong "base force" advo- . cated by the Bush Administration. I cated by the Bush Administration. N! I 2. Further reduce to 1.4 million active-duty troops, as I 2. Further reduce to 1.4 million active-duty troops,as! recommended by the Clinton Administration. recommended by the Clinton Administration. I O I3. Cut back even further in recognition of the fact that1 3. Cut back even further in recognition of the fact that I our primaryrimarymilitary competitor has collapsed. our primary military competitor has collapsed. I 4. Other, or comment I 4. Other, or comment a ill I ! I II I I I tumuli. ...u.m...... maa.IIIham...... ma..a.c.u.iI I 0 ISSUEB. Should the U.S. seek to expand the North I ISSUEB. Should the U.S. seek to expand the North 1 American Free Trade Agreement to include Chile and I American Free Trade Agreement to include Chile and 0 1 other Latin American countries? I other Latin American countries? I II I I 0 1. Yes. I 1. Yes. I 0 Li 2. No. I 1:12. No. II I I 0 I 0 1 I I 1 0 I I 1 II 1 1 0 I 1 0 0 I 0 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I 1 1 I I I 0 I I I Ilcm-m_.-.._...... -um_m_scumummillmmus-a....mmumm mot. sum ..,..1.11 60 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 63 LATIN AMERICA CHILE Transition by ballot box Argentina, Brazil, Of the three countries, Chile surprised Latin observers most by succumbing to one of the longest-running and strongest Chile: democracy and military dictatorships in the region. Chile had had a long tradition of democracy with a liberal constitution for over 150 marketecono'es yearsbefore a coup against President Salvador Allende in 1973 robbed the country of its democracy. Allende had A democratic revolution has transformed the Southernbeen elected by a small margin on a Cone countries. Argentina and Chile are enjoying an Marxist and populist platform. His radi- economic boom. But social and economic problems persist. cal economic and social policies deeply divided the country. Industries were taken over by the government, and pri- by Jacqueline Mazza vate property was expropriated. Long food lines and rationing became commonplace. The government went heavily into debt. It increased wages rapidly, which led to dramatically higher prices and business bankruptcies. Chile, which had thrived as a result of political accommodation, was engulfed in a spiraling political crisis. As Arturo Valenzuela and Pamela Constable explain in A Nation of Enemies: Chile under Pinochet, "Conser- vatives openly plotted to overthrow the government, while leftist groups demanded that Allende surge ahead with the revolution and arm workers for its defense." With tensions mounting, the military overthrew the government by force on September 11, 1973. General Augusto Pinochet led the CHILE'S NEW PRESIDENT,Patricio Aylwin, waves after taking office March 11, 1990. At right iscoup and soon installed himself as the Gen. Augusto Pinochet, who had ruled Chile since taking power in a military coup in 1973. head of a military government. The military and security forces launched a brutal llUST OVER10 years ago, the militaryfrom the preceding period. Argentina,campaign against Allende's supporters. ruled the countries of Argentina,Brazil and Chile have had some of thePinochet dissolved the Congress, banned Brazil and Chile. Today, civilian gov- most repressive military regimes in theindependent political parties and closed ernments are installed in each of theWestern Hemisphere. The region hasdown the free press. He brought in a new three countries; opposition groups openly been torn by polarized, antidemocraticeconomic team, the "Chicago boys," who campaign and thrive. The press operates politics on the left and right, consisting ofhad studied at the University of Chicago, freely; open elections have been held.Marxism, populism and military dictator-which is known for conservative, classi- The dramatic "revolutions" in these threeship. The most recent military regimescal capitalist economics. They introduced Southern Cone countries join Latindominated a wide spectrum of dailystrict free-market economic policies. The America to a string of democratic revolu- lifeeconomic policy, industrial devel-economy experienced a boom based tions around the worldin Eastern Eu-opment, social services, education andheavily on foreign loans. A variety of rope, Asia and Africa. There were fewpolice forces. factors, including overextended loans, TV cameras present to mark events in How didsuchall-encompassing subsequently led to economic difficulties. Latin America. No Berlin Wall cameauthoritarian rule give way to democ-Chile's financial system went on the tumbling down to symbolize the end ofracy? Each case represents a distinctiveskids, and unemployment rose sharply, as the old era and the beginning of the new.transition to democracy, reflecting the did poverty. Beginning in 1981, accord- But an era nearly as dramatic as that incountry's history and the different natureingtoChileanspecialistManuel Eastern Europe has begun. of each government. Each case demon-Garreton, the Pinochet regime faced a The new democratic age in the so-strates that democracy rarely comes qui- JACQUELINE MAZZAis a consultant in called ABC countries of Argentina, Bra-etly but is born from crisis that calls intointernational relations and economics in zil and Chile could not be more different question the viability of the regime. Washington, D.C.

64 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 6 0P/C 6 ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE growing social crisis while critical sup- lifetime appointees. The constitution pro- which antagonized the Catholic Church port for the regime from middle-class vided Pinochet with the power to appoint and the military and polarized politics in opponents of Allende began to erode. nine senators to the Congress. TheseArgentina. Populism drew on the largess In the hope of shoring up its flanks,nonelected senators, together with the of the state to promote the interests of the the military launched a new constitutionelected right-wing opposition, create "alower and working classes. It had broad in 1980, introducing a "protected democ- formidable barrier in the Senate to adop- appeal not only throughout Argentina but racy" and providing for a plebiscite ontion of a number of the government's in other Latin American countries as well. the current military regime in eight years.proposed changes in the constitution,"Under Peron, the labor movement grew Pinochet was convinced he had assuredaccording to Chilean authority Brianto be one of the strongest and largest in the continuity of his regime. Loveman. This antireform bloc hasLatin America. The military deposed him Over time, public protest against thethwarted not only changes to laws affect-in 1955, vowing to destroy Peronism. government forits handling of theing the military but also reform of the Peronism was not destroyed, but poli- economy and for its repressive socialcriminal justice system, electoral laws, tics in Argentina continued to be highly policies continued to grow. Beginning inlabor and tax codes and the eliminationcontentious. No constitutional govern- 1983, there were monthly demonstra-of the military-appointed senators. ment served out its term in the postwar tions, the Catholic Church stepped up its Prosecutions of those accused ofperiod. Juan Peron returned to power in activism and citizen groups began to or-abuses under the regime have not made 1974, and his third wife, Isabel, who was ganize more openly. Civilian organiza-much progress. In its most recent report, vice-president, took over after he died. tions and 17 former political partiesthe human-rights organization AmnestyEconomic disarray increased under her banded together to launch a campaign to International finds that "the Supremereign. Armed Communist terrorist groups vote "No" in the 1988 plebiscite. WhatCourt continued to approve the transferintensified attacks, and right-wing vigi- Pinochet and his supporters had consid- of investigations into past human-rightslantes, sanctioned by the government, ered impossible happened: Chileansviolations to the military courts; mosttook the law into their own hands. With voted against the military dictatorship.cases remained unresolved and none ofthe country in chaos, a coalition of mili- International attention to the plebiscite thoseresponsiblewasconvicted."tary leaders, supported by a number of ci- was great, and Pinochet was compelled, Progress was made, however, in the casevilian groups, staged a coup. Many ex- by his own advisers, supporters and the of the car-bombing deaths in Washington,pected that the military would soon turn rules he had set up, to uphold the resultsD.C., of Allende's former ambassador topower back to the civilians, but that did of the No vote. A general election wasthe U.S., Orlando Letelier, and his assis-not happen. held in 1989 in which Patricio Aylwin tant. The accused were convicted in Chile. The military launched a violent cam- Az6car was elected president by a coali- Despite the tense relations with thepaign, known as the Dirty War, against tion of two major parties, the Socialistsstill powerful military, civilian govern-Communist guerrillas, union leaders, and Christian Democrats, known as Lament has continued to hold. There is teachers, doctors and others suspected of Concertacion. Pinochet remained head ofbroad civil support for the democratic opposing the regime. Political opposition the army, as provided for in the constitu- government. New presidential electionsand a free press were silenced. Books tion written by the military. were scheduled for the end of 1993.were burned, and sociology and philoso- While the transition was tense, it wasConcertacion is expected to win again, phy could no longer be taught in the uni- conducted in a peaceful manner. Political with Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle as theirversities. parties, which became polarized during candidate, which would mark a second The military proved inept at handling the Allende years, collaborated to rebuild consecutive peaceful turnover of demo-the economy, and corruption was en- Chilean democracy. Civilian presidentcratic power. demic. They received huge loans, then Aylwin restored media freedom and rights squandered them and racked up increas- to political parties, and all but 40 of the ARGENTINA ing debt they could not repay. Inflation remaining 400 political prisoners were skyrocketed. A financial crisis ensued in pardoned. The free-market economic poli- TransitionTransi b bymilitary marydefeat eea 1982, and banks collapsed. Civilian op- cies set by the military regime wereChile's post-1973 political upheaval con-position to the military regime grew. largely continued, indicating overall trasts with Argentina's long history of po- Mothers of the thousands who "disap- agreement on the direction of economic litical instability and military intervention. peared" under the regime began march- policy between civilians and the militarySince 1930, the military has taken con-ing in protest. (See box, p. 63.) regime. Greater efforts were made to di-trol of the government six times. Each In an effort to shore up faltering sup- rect government spending to the poor, and time, the military was not alone: manyport, the military tried to recapture the a government commission was appointed civilian groups, who saw the military as aBritish-held Falkland (or Malvinas) Is- to investigate human-rights-abuse casesvehicle for restoring order and financiallands in 1982. By all accounts, the Argen- not covered by a general amnesty. stability, supported the coup. tine military fumbled the campaign in Vestiges of the old regime remain, Juan Perlin was a key figure in Argen-which thousands of young soldiers died. however, constraining a full restoration tine postwar politics. As a labor minister,Military leaders misled the Argentine of democracy. Under the terms of thehe helped mobilize and politicize thepeople by claiming successes, and then 1980 constitution and numerous supple-working class, who were generally out-shocked the nation by surrendering. Soon mental laws, the military retain extraordi-side of the political system. He won the thereafter, the military voluntarily handed narily broad powers. Pinochet packed the presidency first in 1946 and led a popu-over the government to civilians and per- Supreme Court with his supporters as list, some called it authoritarian, regimemitted elections for a new president. 62 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 I0IC ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE 6 the building of democracy. In Brazil, where voluntary associa- Peoplepower: average citizens tions and political parties were generally considered weak, the Catholic Church, believed to be the most progressive in the re- and the fight for democracy gion, formed the early "single largest opposition force to military rule." Explains academic Ralph della Cava, "Unlike the "It was crucial that the whole world hear our anguish and helplaity, Brazilian clergypriests and nunstook to the streets us. Alone we are nothing..." against arbitrary acts of the regime." Local neighborhood reli- Mother of a disappeared youth, quoted in Jean-Pierregious organizations called Christian-Based Communities Bousquet, Las Locas de la Plaza del Mayo (The Madwomen of(CBCs) were stronger in Brazil than in other countries in the the Plaza del Mayo) region. The CBCs were important in beginning to help organize a population intimidated by years of violent repression. CBC FOR YEARSunder the military regime, mothers everywhereleaders ended up becoming activists in growing neighborhood in Argentina found that their children had mysteriouslyassociations, labor unions and peasant unions. Brazil authority "disappeared," taken by government security forces orScott Mainwaring explains that while the political transition masked men without a trace. Alone, they made the rounds ofprocess was largely controlled by elites, "grass-roots move- government ministries, police stations and courts to seek anments did have an impact on the situation, especially after answer to where their children were. The dangers were great;1978." they were warned if they tried to find their children, the children In Chile, 17 political parties and numerous civic organiza- would be killed. They also ran the risk that they themselvestions banded together in a campaign to vote "No" to General would "disappear." Pinochet in the 1989 plebiscite. The "No" campaign had little Despite the mothers' pleas, the military regime refused tomoney, but it did have an army of former local activists and provide answers. On April 30, 1977, 14 mothers of the "disap-trade unionists, whose organizing skills had been dormant for peared" banded together in the main square of Buenos Aires,years. Activists began knocking on doors, donating their time, the Plaza del Mayo, to protest in public. Maybe this time gov-printing posters and helping turn old warehouses into rally ernment officials would listen. The next week there were 20,halls. There were difficulties among the groups, which repre- the week after that 30; by June, 100 showed up. They decidedsented a wide range of political views. More serious, there was to march in protest every week on Thursday afternoons. Therepression and intimidation by government forces. The govern- police harassed them at gunpoint and kicked them. At first thement imposed permanent "states of exception," allowing it to military regime ignored them, calling them "the crazy womendetain anyone for three weeks, censor the press and ban public of the Plaza del Mayo." But the movement grew. Over 2,000meetings. The human-rights organization Americas Watch gathered in the square in December 1977. International atten-found that there was "an extraordinary degree of intimidation" tion now focused on a movement with one simple and compel-pervading the plebiscite. Despite firebombings of "No" cam- ling question: What have you done to our children? As thepaign offices, harassment and beatings of volunteers, and break- movement grew, more mothers were beaten and harassed; some ups of rallies, the armies of volunteers pressed on. One new were killed. But their courage inspired other Argentines to be- recruit was Ronald Ramm, an architect who becamea local gin protesting against the regime. By mid-1981, a general strikeparty coordinator. He explained, "I've never been involved in was supported by 1 million Argentines. They helped underminepolitics, but I know what is right, and the time has come to civil support for the regime, which collapsed by 1983. Oneunite against a dictator." mother explained the initial motivation: "our desire to find our Citizen and nongovernmental organizations are continuing sons was stronger than our fright." to flourish under democratic governments, contributing to the In Brazil and Chile, as well, civilian organizations playedconsolidation of democracy and progress in economic and so- important roles in the transition to democracy. Although clearlycial development. Environmental organizations, as well as those citizens' movements did not bring down the regimes, they did promoting indigenous rights or microenterprise development, play a role in growing opposition to the military regimes andhave now become part of the political landscape.

Raul Alfonsin, representing the Radi-three separate rebellions led by a ren-faces vestiges of authoritarian practices cal party, beat the Peronist candidate.egade military faction known as the that stand in the way of a full consolida- Under the new civilian government,carapintadas, the painted faces. The ci-tion of democracy. In addition to spo- press controls were lifted and politicalvilian government, with the support ofradic actions by military factions, attacks opposition flourished. Alfonsin faced an the military, held; military rule had beenand death threats have occurred against enormous task: the economy was inclearly discredited. journalists criticizing President Menem. shambles, politicalinstitutions were In 1989, Peronist candidate Carlos Saul The leader of the journalists' union in weak, and the cost of military repressionMenem was elected president. The eventArgentina reports that in the nearly four had been high. Alfonsin's poor manage- marked the first time in recent Argentine years of Menem's rule, 139 writers have ment of the economy drew criticism: amemory that power was passed peacefully received threats and 50 were physically plan for wage and price controls failed, from one civilian elected president to an-assaulted. and inflation spun out of control. On theother. Menem is currently leading a dra- Although Menem has been criticized other hand, he bucked the military bymatic free-market economic program,for ruling by decree to get his economic taking strong actions to reduce defensewhich has paid off by drastically cuttingprogram moving forward, the economic expenditures and bring to trial the leaders inflation and spurring growth. revolution that he has brought to a coun- of the Dirty War. Alfonsin weathered Argentina, like its neighbors, stilltry racked by astronomical levels of in- GREAT DECISIONS 1994 66 63 TOPIC ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE

flation has won him many supporters.much of its civilian support. A number ofin the military had collaborated with ci- Menem's Peronist party got a clear ma-military leaders were anxious about their vilians to bring it about. Democratic elec- jority in recent congressional elections. Hedeclining public prestige and the toll thattions were put in place, press censorship has received the backing of former Presi-running a government was putting on theended, and civil society opened up. dent Alfonsin of the opposition Radicalarmed forces' principal jobmilitary Brazilian democracy, though, has party to change the constitution to allowdefense. Moderate elements of the mili-gone through serious challenges, height- two-term presidencies. This would perinit tary sought civilian allies in order to iso-ened by economic troubles. One of the Menem to run for a second term. late the hard-liners and restore the armedgreatest challenges was the corruption forces to their principal role as a military scandal involving President Collor: he BRAZIL institution. was implicated in a $55 million graft and Beginning with the new military re- influence-peddling scheme and refused to A long and gradual transition gime of Ernesto Geisel in 1974, Brazil resign. The Brazilian Congress success- Brazil, Latin America's largest and mostunderwent a long period of disentdo, orfully impeached and removed hima populous country, also had a long historydecompression. In contrast to Argentina feat unparalleled in the hemisphere of instability with weak political partiesand Chile, elements of the Brazilian mili-without provoking a breakdown of the and institutions. Authoritarian military tary were directly involved in negotiatingsystem. The new president,Itamar regimes alternated with civilian govern-and guiding the transition to democracy.Franco, faces formidable constraints in ments for years. In the early 1960s, asGeisel helped lead a gradual liberaliza-stabilizing the Brazilian economy and social mobilization increased and thetion of the regime, granting politicaladdressing one of the most unequal in- economy faltered, the military oustedrights slowly over time. First, congres-come distributions in the region. President Joao Goulart with substantial sional elections were permitted and press As in Argentina and Chile, the Brazil popular backing and installed a militarycensorship was eased. Through this de-ian transition process is incomplete. Re- government. After a period of economiccade-long process, civilian groups, in storing the rule of law is clearly impera- stabilization, Brazil began a tremendousparticular the Church through localtive. Human-rights groups report torture spurt of economic growth known as theChristian-Based Communities, pressuredand ill-treatment by the police. Human- Brazilian miracle, the government for further liberalization. rights workers, rural leaders and Indian In the political sphere, hard-liners inThe decompression process alternatedleaders have been repeatedly threatened the military were pushing to crack downback and forth, with the opposition push- with death. Another serious target is street further on left-wing activity. The regimeing for a return of the rule of law and the children, gunned down to "clean up the developed the region's most sophisti-military insisting on holding on to arbi-streets" or eliminate witnesses. Vigilante cated internal intelligence apparatus, thetrary powers to keep control of the pro-"death squads" linked to the police and SNI, for spying on and torturing those itcess. An amnesty for those accused orfinanced by local merchants have been considered opponents. The SNI had the convicted of political crimes since 1961,responsible for the deaths of thousands of legal right to have an office in every gov-including the military, left and right, wasstreet children. Estimates for 1992 are ernment department, state company andapproved by the Congress in 1979. As athat four children are murdered a day, university. The intense methods of polic-result of the new law, exiles flooded back1,500 a year. Freedom House reported ing and the slowdown in the economicto Brazil. Opponents of liberalizationthat the judicial system, reflecting the "miracle" in later years cost the regimeconducted a campaign of violence,political system as a whole, is "chroni- bombings and terrorism in 1980 andcally corrupt," although Freedom House 1 , 1981. In 1982, direct elections for thefinds the court displayed remarkable in- 5 state governorships were held. dependence in fending off Collor's at- ss A key turning point came in 1985,tempts to manipulate the judicial process. when for the first time in 21 years, the Brazil, like Argentina and Chile, is electoral college voted in a civilian presi-now moving to "consolidate' democracy. dent, Tancredo Neves, with Jose SarneyAll three face the challenge of keeping r, as his vice-president. Both had good rela- the process going. Nonetheless, the suc- tionships with the military. Neves diedcesses during the transition period are suddenly, and Sarney became the first ci- undeniable. Press and political freedoms vilian president in 21 years. Civilianhave been restored and free elections groups led a broad-based campaign forheld for all levels of government. x. direct elections, Directas Ja. In 1989 Brazil saw its first direct presidential Challenges to democracy election. The winner was FernandoThere are a number of challenges con- Collor de Mello, a relative unknown whofronting democracy-building in Argen-

_ led a coalition of conservative parties.tina, Brazil and Chile: the role of the Reflecting on the transition, Brazil expertmilitary; governance and corruption; and Thomas Skidmore notes, "No observer ofeconomic and social instability. tamoncontemporary Latin American politics Role of the Military. Keeping the BRAZIL'S FIRSTdirectly elected president, could fail to be impressed by Brazil's military forces in the barracks and out of Fernando Collor de Mello, who wasrelatively smooth transition away from apolitics is particularly critical in the ABC successfully impeached and ousted following a corruption scandal. military-dominated regime." Moderatescountries.LatinAmericaspecialist 64 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 67 TOPIC ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE 6 Alfred Stepan points out that the key Cenjirm V;.; 31.:(., -!ValikESto concerns of the military in the transition s phase are to retain their high level of special advantages and to avoid la revancha, or revenge, for years of human-rights abuses. All three countries have agreed on some form of amnesty for the military for past crimes. Only Argentina, under President Alfonsin, undertook trials of top military officers. But no country has avoided difficult confrontations with the military. They have faced, in various de- grees, shows of force by the military, coup rumors or, in Argentina's case, attacks by military factions. Scholars differ on how great a threat the militaries in Argentina, Brazil and Chile now pose to civilian governments. With the decay of communism and the worldwide movement toward democracy, the international environment is much less supportive of military rule. Few would disagree, though, that given the record of past military intervention, it SANTIAGO, CHILE:Families of the "disappeared" holding photos of their missing relatives is an area that requires special vigilanceduring a Good Friday procession in 1988. in all three countries. e Governanceand Corruption.populist authoritarianism is a potential scholars believe, that are the most press- Throughout Latin America, the twintemptation in the region. It is the newing and difficult ones faced by demo- problems of establishing functioningeconomic and social challenges, manycratic governments. democratic systems of government at all levels and weeding out corruption have come to the forefront. Corruption is not just a phenomenon of civilian governments; indeed, there was reportedlyThe economic large-scale corruption under military governments. But in more-open societiesrevolution with free presses, corruption is being exposed. In Brazil and Argentina, political CHILE, ARGENTINA and to a lesserincluded, start from a similar point: a re- leaders or their close associates have extent Brazil are undergoing an eco-jection of the old state-led economies and been tainted by corruption; in Brazil, nomic,free-market"revolution"as populism, which clearly failed them. there is a widening scandal involvingsweeping and as challenging as the congressional leaders. Judicial reformdemocratic political revolution. What ex- Old state-led economies has not kept pace with economic reform,actly is the relationship between the po-Beginning in the 1950s, nearly all of imposing challenges for the periodlitical and economic revolutions in theLatin America moved to highly protec- ahead. Privatization, according to a num-ABC countries and elsewhere? Shouldtionist, state-led economies. The state ber of analysts, could help wrest corrupt-economic and political reform be pursued became the "engine" and owner of indus- ing power from state hands. together or are economic reform and sta- tries from steel mills, to airlines, to oil Economic and Social Instability.bility prerequisites for political reform?companies. The push to have the state, Improving conditions for the poor andSome point to the former Soviet Union as not the private sector, develop these in- economic performance overall are chal-an example of the error of opening up adustries was based on a theory of devel- lenges for all three countries. Currentclosed political system without first set-opment that argued that Third World problems stem from a long history ofting the economic house in order. Theycountries could only industrialize by a state economic intervention and misman-note that Chile pursued economic reformcomprehensive strategy to keep foreign agement, accentuated by the austerity andbefore tackling political reform. In Ar-investors and competition out and use the reform programs enacted under the newgentina and Brazil it is the newly electedeconomic largess of the state to create civilian governments. According to thedemocratic governments that have under-national companies. A model called the World Bank, Latin Americaand Brazil taken economic reform along with politi- "import substitution strategy" was devel- in particularhas among the most cal reforms. While it is difficult to gener-oped by Latin American economists. unequal distributions of income in thealize due to each country's unique eco-Under that strategy, protectionist walls world. While Marxism has been discred- nomic and social conditions, many Latinwere kept high to keep out foreign com- ited around the world, some fear thatAmericans countries, the ABC countriespetition, and the state created new indus- GREAT DECISIONS 1994 68 65 ionic 6 ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE

ArgentRegDee3S009 @ODODC4 Population (JCIG) procapita Growth Inflation average ({Bra m11004o64 licbki4 (pe centchange (percent zo.n,non 3,000 12 2,940 1,009% 2,500 NRCO 10 10.4%r 150 156.3 8.7% 2,000 --T2,160-

100 1,500 40

1,000 50 20 500- 15%

`O 13.4_ 0 LI Argentina J Brazil Chile

1991 Source: All data is from 1993 Economist Intelligence Unit Country Reports, except GDP per capita data, which is from the World Bank's World Development Report1993.

tries to serve domestic markets and ex- world reverberated most strongly in theclose to defaulting on its foreign debt, port to foreign nations. The state played avulnerable developing countries. Argen- went to the IMF for help. The austerity major role in industrial development andtina, Brazil and Chile found they couldmedicine prescribed to contain inflation regulation. In many cases it created artifi- not pay their debts or maintain the costsand the high level of debt was difficult to cially high exchange rates. of the heavily subsidized, often corrupt,swallowsevere budget cuts, price in- For a while the strategy seemed to bestate-led economies. Argentina and Bra-creases for subsidized goods, currency showing some results. Huge steel andzil went through drastic cycles of "hyper-devaluation and wage cuts. The actions, manufacturing complexes were created.inflation," where the government keptas with all the Latin countries that needed Brazil, in particular, had very high ratesprinting money to pay bills, which in turnto take the medicine, further deepened of growthan average of 11% per yearpushed up prices (i.e., created inflation).recession, and tens of thousands lost their from 1968 to 1974, and the region as aThey sought assistance from the multilat-jobs, prices rose and wages declined. whole saw improvements in health, edu-eral development institutionsthe Inter- In Argentina, the end of the Malvinas cation and literacy. But import substitu-national Monetary Fund (IMF) and the war and the financial crisis brought down tion compelled governments to borrowWorld Bankbut these required strongthe military regime. The new civilian heavily to feed state industries, and theausterity measures before they would president, Alfonsin, was not able to sta- result was domestic products that oftenlend Latin America more money. Struc- bilize the economy. He tried several plans cost more than foreign ones. tural adjustment often meant balancingto control hyperinflation to no avail. In- In the 1970s, the region, like the rest budgets, cutting government work forces,flation peaked at 4,924% in 1989. With of the world, was hit with two sharp oil- selling off state companies and liberaliz- inflation out of control, Argentina de- price increases. The billions of dollarsing markets. faulted on its international debts, and eco- earned by the oil-rich countries were re- Rather than adapt to the slowdown ofnomic production fell. The New York cycled through Western commercial the 1970s, the Brazilian military regimeTimes reported, "Not surprisingly, the Ar- banks, and Latin America became a mainat first launched a big public-works pro-gentine economy shrank 25% in the market for the lending of "petrodollars."gram. They built huge hydroelectric1980s, more than any other in Latin Argentina, Brazil and Chile" became plants, chemical industries, nuclear plants, America with the exception of Nicaragua regular clients. This new lending, com-etc. This was done without considering theand Guyana." bined with poor economic performancedrain on the federal budget or the level of Only Chile initiated reforms for devel- and mismanagement, led to an explosiveforeign debt acquired. The governmentoping a private-sector-based economy debt and economic crisis in the region.became dependent on further borrowing. during this period. The military cut gov- Brazil had the largest debt in all of Latin Luciano Martins explains: "The intention ernment spending, laid off workers and America, and Argentina was also a large was artificially to sustain the hope of anreduced subsidies to industry. While debtor. The growing state industries, with economic miracle that would legitimizeshort-term costs were high, the founda- high subsidies, were becoming more and the regime." But by mid-1982, the bill fortion was laid for economic growth in the more of a burden to maintain. the free-spending policy arrived. Domes- future. tic interest rates rose to 300% per year, Throughout Latin America, the burden The lost decade inflation was above 100%, industrial proof austerity measures fell heaviest on the The economic problems that were build- duction fell 10%, and foreign debt rosepoor, through higher prices and greater ing during the 1970s exploded in thesixfold from $12.6 billion in 1973 to al-unemployment. In Brazil the number of 1980s. The recession that hit the wholemost $80 billion in mid-1982. Brazil,people who were poor increased by 10 66 GREAT DECISIONS 19 94 69 IOPir ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE 6 million during the 1980s to 35 million;the world's best by the United Nations. control over the process have offered op- more than 40% of the population lived on Argentina'stransformationwentportunities for corruption. less than $2 a day. In the whole region,through stages under current President Of the three nations, Brazil's economic the 1980s became known as the "lost de-Menem. A Peronist, Menem surprisedreforms are the slowest-moving and its cade": not only did the Latin Americanthe nation by implementing a very non- economic performance in key areas is countries not grow, they lost ground. Pov-Peronist program of free-market reform. poor. Many feel Brazil's commitment to erty increased steadily throughout the re-By nearly all accounts, Argentina is reform is erratic. In the past seven years, gion, aggravating already unequal distri-implementing one of the most far-reach- Brazil has had five successive stabiliza- butions of income. Earlier progress ining privatization and reform plans in tion plans with varying success. Trade lib- education and health conditions built upLatin America. Nearly everything haseralization has been much slower and over decades fell behind. been privatizedthe state airlines, themore cautious than in either Argentina or telephone company, the railroads andChile. Brazil has the highest inflation rate Move to market economics television stations. Menem abolished 36in all of Latin America-1,009% in The free-market transformation that is regulatory agencies, lifted import restric- 1992and one of the highest in the now taking place in Argentina and Chile,tions and cut the government work forceworld. The economy did not grow at all in particular, and Brazil to a much lesserby 20%. in 1992, although healthier economic extent, is as dramatic as the democratic Menem's first economic plan was con- growth was expected in 1993. Economic revolution itself. Contrary to concerns of sidered bold but a bit haphazard. The turn- management has been hampered by poor economists that democratic governments around came in the second phase under political management. President Collor de might not be able to undertake such po-currentFinanceMinister DomingoMello ran into serious corruption charges, litically difficult and risky reforms, theyCavallo, who built a more comprehensive which cost him his job. In what has jok- have made tough choices and borne theplan of large privatizations, increased tax ingly been called "economic musical pain of economic reform. Of the ABCcollections and abolished export taxes. Achairs," President Itamar Franco is on his countries, Chile is distinct in beginningkey move came in early 1991 with thefourth finance minister in a little over a the reform process under a military gov-adoption of a "convertibility" scheme, year since taking office. This lack of con- ernment. making one Argentine peso equivalent totinuity has made economic policy diffi- Chile led the way in the 1980s and isone U.S. dollar. The major achievementcult. The most recent economic team un- often cited as the region's success storyhas been the dramatic decrease in infla- der Fernando Cardoso is also having its for "neo-liberal" transformation. Chile's tion. Average annual consumer-price in- difficulties. markets were opened to foreign competi-flation dropped from 2,314% in 1990 to As the tenth largest economy in the tion, and many state industries and ser-24.9% in 1992. High growth rates have world, though, Brazil clearly has a strong vices were privatized, including the so-been achieved, with an average of 8.7%base on which to build. Export growth cial security system. Chile is trying to bein 1992. Inflation in the single digits was and agriculture are areas of strength; auto a "Latin American tiger," modeled afterpredicted for 1993. Decisions on eco-production is at record levels. Brazil has the export-led economies of Southeastnomic reform were often taken by execu- been trying to resurrect a standby agree- Asia. The government dismissed manytive decree, however, because of difficul-ment with the IMF, but the concern in the state employees and diversified exports,ties getting measures through the Argen- fall of 1993 was that the country was still particularly wood and pulp products,tine congress, and the speed and lack ofnot meeting the economic targets. fresh fruit and other agricultural products, to reach new markets. Certain important industries, such as copper mining, have remained in state hands. Chile's hard work has paid off: in 1992, the nation registered an enviable 10.4% growth rate, one of the highest worldwide, with an unemployment level at an equally coveted 4.5%. In early 1993, growth slowed to a still enviable 8.3% rate. Chile's transformation, however, has come with social costs. The poor have paid the highest price for the adjustment higher food costs and reduced wages. About 40% of the population is below the poverty line of $200 a month for a family of four. But the new democratic government has launched strong antipoverty efforts, financed by a tax increase. The new funds are concentrated on affordable housing, health care, education and 1 TT Fin microenterprise development. Its anti- PRESIDENT CARLOS SAUL MENEMof Argentina (1) waves to the crowd during an Independence poverty strategy has been called one ofDay parade in Brasilia, as Brazil's President Itamar Franco looks on. 70 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 67 6 ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE A pressing and serious problem con-Janeiro, where 5.5 million people live, ernment with aid. The Carter Administra- fronting Brazil is deteriorating socialeveryday an average of 10 people aretion canceled aid to Argentina over its conditions. As the largest and most ethni- killed and 100 cars are stolen. human-rights violations, and its relations cally diverse of the Latin American coun- Overall, a dramatic economic revolu- with Brazil were icy due to its nuclear tries, Brazil has been facing an explosive tion has occurred in Argentina and Chile, policy. The Reagan Administration de- social situation. Brazil has the highest perin particular. Some worry that a rise incried the human-rights policies of the capita income in Latin America, but theexchange rates or shakiness in some port-Carter Administration and largely sup- richest 20% of Brazilians earn 26 times folio investments could weaken eco-ported the Southern Cone dictatorships. what the poorest 20% earn. Brazil's 26:1 nomic performance. But so far, highHowever, in its later years, the Reagan ratio far exceeds the U.S. at 9:1 or Indiagrowth rates and containment of hyper-Administration took a stronger pro- at 5:1. Crime and poverty are seriousinflation have rendered these countriesdemocracy stand and supported aid for problems. In the capital city of Rio debig winners. the "No"-to-Pinochet campaign. With the advent of democracy in the region, better relations with all three countries were restored. Under President Reconnecting George Bush, economic policy achieved primacy. In 1990, the Enterprise for the Americas Initiative was announced, set- thewort ting the long-term goal of creating a free- THE TWIN ECONOMIC and political revo- facing Mercosur is agreement on a com-trade area from Alaska to Tierra del lutions that Argentina, Chile and to a mon external tariff for all four countries.Fuego. In addition to trade, the initiative lesser extent Brazil are undergoing have Chile is outside of Mercosur for thehas two other components: debt and in- brought forward a new relationship withmoment, although there is hope that itvestment. Specifically, the debt initiative the outside world. Each one is participat- will ultimately join. It has stayed out onprovided relief from debt owed to the ing in an increasingly competitive inter-the grounds that the other countries' eco-U.S. government, and the investment ini- national marketplace as well as partici- nomic policies still have a long way to go tiative created a new Multilateral Invest- pating in a more democratic communityto be compatible with its own. Chile hasment Fund with U.S., Japanese, Euro- of nations. progressed steadily in creating interna- pean and Latin American contributions to tional links with other countries pursuingpromote private-sector development in New international role free-market policies. In the beginning ofthe region. Chile has already received The most visible sign of a change in the 1992, a free-trade agreement betweendebt-relief under the Brady plan (named external relations of the Southern Cone is Chile and Mexico came into force, with afor a former Treasury secretary) and the in the primacy of economic relations. Forcommon 10% tariff between them that is Enterprise for the Americas Initiative, the free-market reforms enacted in theto fall to zero by 1996. Chile has alsoand plans are now being made for MIF region to work requires open trading rela- been invited to join the Asia-Pacific Eco- aid to Chile and Argentina. On balance, tions and borders open to investment.nomic Cooperation forum, one of theLatinAmericascholarAbraham Foreign tradeboth inside and outsiderichest groups of trading nations in theLowenthal argues, "Latin America's in- the regionis more actively encouraged.world. Japanese investors have been par- terest in prospective regional partnerships The countries of the Southern Coneticularly interested in the highly competi-was aroused, but the U.S. under Bush not only Argentina, Brazil and Chile, buttive Chilean economy. While the U.S. iswasnotabletodelivermuch." also the two smaller countries, Paraguaystill the top exporter to Chile, Chile ex- Lowenthal explains the shortfall as being and Uruguayhave often had difficultported slightly more to Japan (16.7%) in largely due to domestic difficulties facing relations with each other. Nonetheless, 1992 than to the U.S. (16.1%). The mostthe U.S., including recession and opposi- four of these countries have set out totalked about free-trade area for Chile istion among domestic groups to invest- create a free-trade area. The Treaty ofone with the U.S. The Clinton Adminis-ment south of the border. Asuncion was signed in March 1991,tration, like the Bush Administration be- President Bill Clinton faces a new op- establishing Mercosur, the Spanish acro-fore it, has argued that Chile has madeportunity in relations with Argentina, Bra- nym for the Southern Cone Common the right reforms and is a prime candidatezil and Chile. A State Department official Market, among Argentina, Brazil, Para- for a free-trade agreement with the U.S.announced in a May 1993 speech that guay and Uruguay. Mercosur's goal is to after the completion of the North Ameri-"President Clinton is committed to forg- establish a free-trade area by January 1,can Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). ing a true partnership of the Americasa 1995. Some trade barriers have come down Western Hemisphere community of de- and trade has increased. Mercosur also Relations with the U.S. mocraciesto strengthen democratic in- encourages the physical integration of thePast U.S. relations with the former mili- stitutions, to defend human rights, to fight countries, including the construction of atary dictatorships of the Southern Conefor social justice, to support economic new superhighway and bridges, estab-have been rocky. Through most of thereform and free markets, and to protect lishing hydrofoil services, and promoting cold-war period, the U.S. sent a varietythe environment." The Administration has the sharing of consulates abroad. In Mayof mixed messages to the Southern Coneresponded to threats against new democ- 1993, the presidents of Argentina anddictatorships. A number of Administra-racies in Haiti and Guatemala. Brazil agreed to uphold the timetable and tions embraced them. The Nixon Admin- The Clinton Administration has indi- objectives of Mercosur. The biggest issueistration provided the new Pinochet gov-cated that it intends to move forward 68 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 71 TOPIC ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE 6 with free-trade agreements with Chile, Argentina and then Venezuela after Caribbean Sea Nafta's adoption. President Clinton out- eso"'et loao cy,0.) North lined the overall vision in a speech to the cale Atlantic U.S. Chamber of Commerce: "The real Ocean job gains from Nafta come when we take that agreement (Nafta)...to Chile, to Ar- gentina, to Colombia, to Venezuela, to ECUADOR the other market-oriented democracies in Latin America and create a consumer market of 700 million people, soon to be over 1 billion people in the next century." PERU There are a number of more-sector-specific subsidies of agricultural products. Intellectual property rightsthe protec- South tion of U.S. patents and copyrights in for- Pacific eign marketshave been an important Ocean concern, particularly in Brazil. At the same time, environmental differences are likely to increase, particularly with regard to Brazil, which holds the world's largest remaining reserves of tropical forest, rapidly being destroyed. CHILE After years of acrimony, U.S.-Latin /URUGUAY Montevideo South American relations are in a much stron- Atlantic ger position. As Secretary of State War- Ocean ren Christopher explained, "there is an ARGENTINA unprecedented convergence of goals and values among all the people of the Americas." Similar sentiments are echoed by Latin American leaders. Argen- 0 Miles 750 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) tine President Menem stated in 1993 that ..47P "Never before have relations between the Strait of Magellan U.S. and Argentina been better." Tierra del Fueg Cape Horn Just how far greater regional ties can go inthe short termisdebatable.shore up badly bruised relations withthe pressing social needs of the ABC Lowenthal concludes: "There is greaterLatin America over the difficult fight incountries demonstrate that the demo- convergence in the Americas, North andthe U.S. over Nafta. cratic process is fragile. The U.S. needs South, on political values and economic No: The divisiveness of the Nafta de- to indicate its support for strengthening fundamentals than ever before, but abate in Congress and the country demon- civilian rule through targeted economic hemispheric political community is farstrates that Americans are deeply divided assistance in key areas, trade and invest- from achievement." over the merits of opening up free tradement promotion, greater contacts with with the low-wage developing countriesregional militaries and social organiza- U.S. policy options to the south. The U.S. should not offer tions, and diplomatic support. The U.S. Should the U.S. move forward withmore incentives for companies to invest cannot just wait until a crisis arises, for in free-trade agreements with the South-outside the U.S. when its own workersmany cases that is too late. ern Cone countries? are in such trouble. The Nafta agreement No: Democracy-building is an impor: Yes: Argentina, Brazil and Chile areshould not be extended to other countries tant foreign policy priority, but the U.S. among the most dynamic economies ofuntil the U.S. has strengthened its owncannot afford to be totally involved in all South America. The Chilean economyeconomy. There are other ways for thedemocracies. The U.S. is currently over- presents none of the major concerns asso- U.S. to offer its support to the democra- whelmed with international crises around ciated with Mexico. It is much smaller, cies of the Southern Cone than by mort-the globe: Bosnia, Somalia, Haiti, the the immigration problem is nonexistent,gaging its own economic future. former Soviet Union. Should a crisis it offers an important export market for Should the U.S. do more to supporterupt in any of these countries, the U.S. U.S. goods and services and a windowthe democratic transitions in Argen-would surely be there leading the fight to onto the larger South American market.tina, Brazil and Chile? restore democracy, as it has done in,Gua- Argentina, as a larger economy, offers Yes: With almost two thirds of thetemala and Haiti. Actions in the absence even greater export possibilities. population of South America, theseof a crisis are unnecessary and stretch Most important, free-trade arrange- countries are a linchpin for the whole re-diplomatic resources. Given all the other ments would help consolidate the demo- gion. The military uprisings, the instabil-world crises, the Southern Cone cannot cratic transitions in these countries andity arising from corruption scandals, andbe an immediate priority for the U.S. 72 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 69 ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, CHILE

Chile, hOw should the U.S. react? Shouldstake in Latin America? Should the U.S. the U.S. send in troops? Send warships tomaintain a special relationship with Ar- EON enforce an embargo, as it did in the casegentina, Brazil and Chile? OHS of Haiti? 5. Do you believe that the same concerns 3. If your children or parents had beenabout a free-trade area with Mexico are 1. The Southern Cone countries have atortured and killed under a military dicta-valid for a free-trade area with Chile, or history of political instability and military torship, would you have supported grant-Argentina or Brazil? Are the implications intervention. How firmly is democracying amnesty to the torturers? Did Argen-for U.S. jobs the same? rooted in these three countries? Is there atina, Brazil and Chile take too soft a line danger of reversalinany of theon military crimes or did they have little6. What would be the advantagesor countries? choice? disadvantagesfor the U.S. of establishing a free-trade area with Chile, as pro- 2. If the military overthrew the present4. Now that the cold war has ended, doesposed, and later including Argentina and government in Argentina, Brazil orthe U.S. have any national interests atBrazil?

pp. $12.95. A compelling and readable description of social and political developments in Chile from the dictatorship through the democratic transition, focusing on the role of key social groups.

Wharton, Clifton R., Jr., "Forging a True Partnership of the Americas." U.S. Department of State Dispatch, May 3, 1993, Economic and Social Progress in Latin America: 1993pp. 305-7. Address by the deputy secretary of state before the Report. Washington, D.C., Inter-American DevelopmentCouncil of the Americas. Bank, 1993. 308 pp. $16.95. Comprehensive yearbook review- ing recent economic and social trends in each of the Latin LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES ASSOCIATION,University of Pittsburgh, American countries. 946 William Pitt Union, Pittsburgh, Penna. 15260; (412) 648- 7929.Analyzes Latin American issues and encourages train- Loveman, Brian, "Mision Cumplida? Civil-Military Relations ing, teaching and continued research. Publishes Latin American and the Chilean Political Transition." Journal of Inter-Ameri-Research Review, in addition to a quarterly newsletter, LASA can Studies and World Affairs, Fall 1991, pp. 35-74. (Avail- Forum. able from The North-South Center/The University of Miami, P.O. Box 248205, Coral Gables, Fla. 33124-3027.) The author NORTH AMERICAN CONGRESS ON LATIN AMERICA,475 Riverside argues that the transition is incomplete and more needs to be Dr., Suite 454, New York, N.Y 10115; (212) 870-3146.Re- done to assert true civilian rule. searches Latin American and Caribbean developments, as well as U.S. policy toward the region. Publishes Report on the Lowenthal, Abraham F., "Latin America: Ready for Partner- Americas magazine five times a year. ship?" Foreign Affairs (America and the World 1992/93), pp. 74-92. The author points out the heavy stake the U.S. has in TULANE UNIVERSITY, CENTER FOR LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES,105 the success of democracy and market economics in LatinHebert Bldg., New Orleans, La. 70118; (504) 865-5164. America. Conducts research on Latin America, including contemporary affairs. Offers reference materials, training, conferences, audio- Nash, Nathaniel C., "Argentines Escape an Economic Mire: A visuals and a biannual newsletter, Tolas. Success Story, Yes, but No Miracle." The New York Times, July 25, 1993, p. 10. Article discusses Argentina's daring eco- UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA, CENTER FOR LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES,319 nomic program. Grinter Hall, Gainesville, Fla. 32611; (904) 392-0375. Promotes teaching and research on Latin America and the O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead,Caribbean. Sponsors conferences and offers curriculum mate- Laurence, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latinrial and a newsletter; has staff available to speak. America. Baltimore, Md., Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. 256 pp. $12.50. Classic volume on transitions to democ- UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO, LATIN AMERICA DATA BASE, LATIN racy in the region, with chapters on Argentina, Brazil and Chile. AMERICAN INSTITUTE,801 Yale, N.E., Albuquerque, New Mex. 87131; (505) 277-6839.Monitors Latin American wire ser- Stepan, Alfred, ed., Democratizing Brazil: Problems of Tran-vices and print media and produces four on-line publications. sition and Consolidation. New York, Oxford University Press, 1989. 424 pp. $16.95. Volume addresses range of issues in Bra- WASHINGTON OFFICE ON LATIN AMERICA,110 Maryland Ave., zilian transition, including the role of the Catholic Church andN.E., Suite 404, Washington, D.0 20002; (202) 544-8045. nongovernmental organizations. Works for the development of a foreign policy that facilitates human rights, democracy and peace in the region. Publishes a Valenzuela, Arturo, and Constable, Pamela, A Nation of En-quarterly newsletter, Enlace, reports and studies, and organizes emies: Chile under Pinochet. New York, Norton, 1991. 367conferences, workshops and seminars. 70 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 73 Orc EGYPT, ALGERIA and TUNISIA 7 and its violent fringe groups. A driving force behind the Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation was a concern shared by leaders of both Israel and the PLO that time Islam and politics: was running out. If they did not act soon, they feared, growing support for Islamic forces that reject the peace process could permanently block the way. A common Egypt, Algeria and sense of vulnerability that they themselves could be overthrown by Islamic militants now has united leaders as dif- Tunisia ferent as Saudi Arabia's King Fand, Syria's President Hafez al-Assad and Three North African governments are under siege byEgypt's President Hosni Mubarak. Islamic militants. Why is this happening? How will it end? The peace agreement between Israel and the PLO has almost universal sup- by Lawrence G. Potter port among Middle Eastern governments. And for now, at least, those opposed to rule by religious activistsas in Iranstill prevail in the Middle East. Nevertheless, this may be changing. Those supporting I Islamic rule have been growing in numbers. The resurgence has been particularly dramatic in three North African countries, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia. Until recently, governments in those nations had sought accommodation with some Islamic opposition groups, but now they are locked in deadly confrontation. What accounts for this religious revival throughout the Islamic world, in particular in North Africa? Why has it sometimes taken a violent turn? U.S. policymakers face a dilemma in responding to this phenomenon. They are accus- tomed to dealing with sovereign states, not transnational movements. The West "is even more apprehensive about Islam than it was about communism, because while it knows how to deal with material challenges, it has no idea how to go about facing a spiritual challenge," according to Hassan al-Turabi, head of Sudan's National Islamic Front. In the new Middle East, the Clinton Administration must decide how to help .4111111111.16 its allies in the region deal with the threat NEW YORK CITY, JULY 2, 1993: Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman (center) surrenders to U.S. of militant Islam. At the same time it immigration officials. Some of his followers were implicated in the World Trade Center must consider how strongly to press bombing. those governments to implement U.S. foreign policy priorities such as democ- N FEBRUARY 26, 1993, the World politics that has long plagued the Middle racy and human rights. Trade Center in New York City East. was bombed, leaving six dead Seven months later, on September 13, Roots of revival and over a thousand injured. The attackthe leaders of Israel and the PalestineThe Islamic resurgence is part of a appears to have been the work of Islamic Liberation Organization (PLO) met withbroader worldwide movement in which radicals inspired by a blind EgyptianPresident Bill Clinton on the Whitepeople, disaffected from their govern- cleric, Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman. The House lawn and shook hands, opening a attack shattered Americans' illusions thatnew chapter in Middle Eastern history. LAWRENCE G. POTTER, a longtime contributor toGREAT DECISIONS,holds a Ph.D. in Middle distance somehow guaranteed them im- The two epic events were directly re- Eastern History from Columbia University munity to the volatile mix of religion and lated to the rising tide of political Islam and is currently teaching at Tufts University. 74 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 71 0 P C 7 ISLAM AND POLITICS SELECTED INDICATORS tries, gained favor. Islamic modernism's was the prevailing political ideology in primary appeal was to the educated elite, Egypt, Algeria and other Arab countries. EGYPT ALGERIA TUNISIA however, and by World War I they wereThis did not prevent the new elite from Population turning to new definitions of politicalinvoking Islam to justify secular goals, (millions) 58.3 27.3 8.6 identity. Islamic modernism had failed as which showed the strong continuing in- Per Capita a political force, but it exerted an Intel-fluence of Islamic modernism. President GNP (SU.S.) $620$2,020 $1,510 lectual influence on later reformers. Gamal Abdel Nasser (1956-70), for ex- Life expectancy ample, regularly obtained legal decrees (years) 60 66 68 Themodern Middle East (fatwas) from the ulema to give his poli- The post-World War I breakup of thecies the tincture of religious legitimacy. Literacy 45% 52% 62% Ottoman Empire, which had ruled large The Muslim Brotherhood was suppressed Population parts of the Middle East and North Africain 1954 after being accused of trying to growth rate 2.3% 2.7% 1.9% for five centuries, gave rise to a numberassassinate Nasser but has continued to of new states. Creations of Europeanbe an important force in Egyptian politics ments and feeling threatened by the ero-powers, some of these countries, likedown to the present day. sion of traditional values, turn to religionLebanon, Iraq and Jordan, had no his- as a source of identity. This has occurred torical basis and found it difficult to forge The end of ideology among Hindus in India, Jews in Israel a sense of national identity. People found Israel's defeat of the armies of Egypt, and Eastern Orthodox Christians in Rus-themselves arbitrarily joined with mem-Jordan and Syria in the Six-Day War of sia. The process of modernization, whichbers of different religious, tribal and 1967 was a bitter blow to Arab self-es- took centuries in the West, has been com- linguistic groups. Their only commonteem. It resulted in the loss of the West pressed in much of the rest of the world,denominators were Islam or "Arabness."Bank of the Jordan river and the eastern including the Middle East and North Af- European influence peaked in the pe-part of the city of Jerusalem, which had rica. "The contemporary Islamic revivalriod between World Wars I and II. Thebeen under Jordanian administration for is a special response to the particular con-British in Egypt, Palestine, Transjordantwo decades. It also set off a period of ditions of the late 20th century and mustand Iraq, and the French in North Africasoul-searching as to what had gone be seen in the context of the conflicts and(Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), Syriawrong. The ineptitude of Arab armies challenges of the modern world," accord-and Lebanon, exercised hegemony overwas revealed, and many Arabs felt their ing to Professor John 0. Voll of the Uni-much of the region. Of the major coun- governments had failed them. The Pales- versity of New Hampshire. tries in the Middle East, only twotinians, seeking their own state, con- Historically, there have been periodicPersia (renamed Iran in 1935) and Tur-cluded that it was time to take matters calls by Muslims for renewal and re-keyretained their independence. into their own hands, and some turned to form of the faith. The present revival The most powerful ideological currentterrorism to gain the world's attention. had its roots in the late 18th century,at that time was secular nationalism, as Many others in the region concluded when the Wahhabis, a militant group inexemplified by Mustafa Kemal Ataturkthat Israel had won because Jews were the Arabian peninsula, sought to purify(president of Turkey, 1923-38) and Rezamore faithful than they were to their reli- Islam by going back to its origins, inter-Pahlavi (shah of Iran, 1925-41). Bothgious tradition. Islam, Muslims believed, preting the Koran (Quran), consideredmen did much to modernize their coun- had led them to a glorious civilization in the Word of God, literally and abandon-tries' economies and military establish-the past, and, if properly followed, could ing devotional practices not sanctionedments. In the process they created a widedo so again. Muslims' disillusionment by the Prophet Muhammad. In the 19thgap between the ruling elite and thewith their leaders went hand in hand with century, Europeans conquered much ofpeople, between leaders and the more re-a general disenchantment with the West the Islamic world, and this stimulated aligious masses. Although the shah for- and all of its "isms," including liberalism, profound debate among Muslims as tobade the veiling of women and sup- capitalism, socialism and communism. In the reasons for their powerlessness. pressed the ulema, the clergy retained thetheir search for a guiding ideology, many Many concluded that their political de-popular allegiance of most Iranians, asrediscovered Islam: it provided a com- cline was rooted in a lack of faith. Theydemonstrated at the time of the revolu-prehensive, culturally authentic world- regarded the time when Muhammad es-tion in 1978-79. view that was not tainted by association tablished a state in 7th-century Arabia The Muslim Brotherhood, founded inwith the West. and united religious and political leader- Egypt in 1928, was the first modern Is- Some Muslim successes, such as the ship as a "Golden Age," and they soughtlamic movement to attract mass support. _ to recapture it. This movement emphasized that Islam KEY TO ACRONYMS In the late 1800s a number of otherwas more than a religion: it was a com- reform movements sprang up, led by so- prehensive system for conducting one's FIS:Islamic Salvation Front (Algerian) called Islamic modernists. These were laylife. By combining social activism with a political thinkers, not religious scholars,rejection of the materialism of the West FLN:National Liberation Front or ulema, who tried to strengthen the Is-and opposition to British imperialism, it (Algerian) lamic community by emphasizing thehad broad appeal among the poor as well MTI: Islamic Tendency Movement compatibility of Islam with reason andas the urban middle class. (It established (Tunisian) science. Also at this time the idea of pan- schools, factories and mosques.) Islam, or a political union of Islamic coun- After World War II, Arab socialismPLO: Palestine Liberation Organization GREAT DECISIONS 1994 72 75 0 IC ISLAM AND POLITICS 7

Spain ,Ankara Armenia ugal Italy Turkmenistan 4 Turkey Greece erbaijan Atlantic Ocean Algiers Cyprus Tunisia ra"ean Sea Lebanon Rabat Ial istan Jerussraleem Baghdad Tripoli man dan Cairo* Ku Paki Saudi Bahrain Arabia W tern Libya Riyadh* bai Sa ara Algeria Egypt Qatar Muscat or.) United Arab Emirates Mauritania Indian Ocean Niger Niamey Sanaa 0 Miles 500

creditable performance by Arab armies in fierce, opponents of the modern world's Radical Islam their war with Israel in 1973 andthe as-elevation of human reason, materialA majority of Islamists seek to change sociated Arab oil embargo (which causedgoods and historical processes to thetheir societies peacefully; those who ad- turmoil in the West), were signs that thelevel of ultimate meaning and value." A vocate violence are in the minority. Some fortunes of the Islamic world were on theterm currently in favor among Muslimemploy violence in response to govern- upswing at last. The Iranian revolution atgroups themselves and used by outsidement repression; when denied electoral the end of the decade appeared to demon-experts is Islamist. victories, as in Algeria, they may take up strate that Islamic forces could triumph Many Islamists would like to see the arms. Islamic radicals believe that leaders over those of an impious, autocratic rulerSharia, or Islamic law, replace Westernand governments who do not share their closely allied with the U.S. legal codes. This medieval law code,interpretation of the Sharia are illegiti- whose main sources are the Koran and themate, and they are obliged to wage holy Fundamentalists practices (Sunna) and traditions (Hadith) war (jihad) against them. Such senti- Islamic fundamentalism is a term that has of the Prophet, however, fails to addressments, and objections to the spread of been loosely applied to the Islamic reli- explicitly a multitude of contemporarymodernwaysin Saudi Arabia, lay behind gious revival, to Islam as a politicalissues. Nevertheless it has been inter-the attempted takeover of the Great force, and to terrorism conducted in thepreted, for example, to forbid the paymentMosque in Mecca in November 1979. name of Islam. The word fundamentalistof interest on bank accounts and, in Saudi Islamic radicals regard the West as has also been used to describe suchArabia, to ban women from driving. Al-seeking to dominate Muslims andsee widely dissimilar governments as thosethough the Koran prohibits usury, it doesIsrael as an oppressive outpost of colo- of Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Libya, whosenot call for veiling and seclusion ofnialism. Activists, such as the Hezbollah, people practice the predominant Sunniwomen. These are practices that arose inor Party of God, in Lebanon (thought to form of the Islamic religion. Iran, whosethe early Islamic community. be behind the bombing of the U.S. Ma- people belong to the minority Shiite The Islamic revival is manifested in arine barracks in Beirut in October 1983), branch of the faith, has also been calledgenuine increase in personal religiositybelieve they have a religious duty to fundamentalist. among many Muslims. This is evident inwage war on infidels and have persis- The word fundamentalism (which has the increased adoption of "Islamic" garb,tently opposed peace with Israel. no equivalent in Arabic) originated as a including beards for men and veiling for Although they attract attention, Islamic term to describe a small group of Ameri- women, the banning of alcohol and rising radicals are no more typical of most Mus- can Protestant evangelicals in the earlymosque attendance. At the same time,lims than Provisional Irish Republican 20th century who rejected liberalism and there have been mounting protestsArmy terrorists are of most Irish Catho- modernity. Indeed, "fundamentalism... is against Western cultural influence, in-lics. "There is indeed an Islamic revolu- one of the responses of organized reli-cluding sexually suggestive clothing,tion occurring in many parts of the Mus- gion to the unique challenges posed tomagazines and movies. A tendency to re- lim world," according to Professor John traditional societies and belief systems byject the West and to blame their troublesL. Esposito of Georgetown University. modernity,"accordingtoR.Scotton Westerners is common among Islam- "However, the most significant and per- Appleby, associate director of The Fun-ists. In the Middle East today, Islam has vasive revolution is not that of bombs and damentalism Project of the Americanmoved from what had for decades ap-hostages, but of clinics and schools. It is Academy of Arts and Sciences. "[Funda-peared to be a peripheral position to andominated by social activists (teachers, mentalists] are dedicated, sometimesundeniably central one. doctors, lawyers, dentists) and preachers GREAT DECISIONS 1994 73 76 ISLAM AND POLITICS

rather than warriors. The battle is oftenand Saudi Arabia. However, the risingter the signing of the Camp David ac- one of the pen, tongue and heart ratherpopular demand for participation in thecords (1978) and peace treaty with Israel than the sword. Radicalism and terrorism, political process has benefited Islamists. (1979), his support within Egypt was rap- though capturing the headlines, are a very With the revolution in communications idly crumbling. His policies, which led to small though at times deadly part of a phe- technology helping to turn the world intoan "open-door" economy and a much nomenon characterized more by a broad- a global village, Middle Easterners aregreater U.S. presence, were criticized, as based religiosocial revolution which has aware of political changes in the nextwas his support for the shah of Iran. In affected most Muslim societies." country and the next continent, and they1979 he moved to assert greater control feel they are due for a change them-over Islamicinstitutions,especially Islam vs. the West selves. Participation in the political sys-mosques. His suppression of dissent, The Islamic revival came as a great sur-tem is the rallying cry of Islamists andboth religious and secular, led directly to prise to Western analysts, who had be-anathema to most governments. his assassination on October 6,1981. lieved that as a nation modernizes the Given the opportunity, most Islamists The killers belonged to Holy War, an role of religion recedes. It also came as awill participate in elections, and theyorganization whose members came from shock to the regional leadership and thehave already joined parliaments in Jor-all parts of Egyptian society, including elites, schooled in the West, who did notdan, Yemen, Kuwait and Lebanon. Is- the military, university students and radio see the storm gathering before their eyes lamic groups offer the only alternative toand television workers. As the name im- and found themselves prime targets. Theautocracy in many Middle Eastern coun-plies, they believed they had to wage a overthrow of the shah of Iran in 1979 bytries where there are no viable secularHoly War against infidels, among them a coalition of forces led by the Shiiteopposition parties. In Algeria, the IslamicSadat. Their action was to be a first step cleric, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,Salvation Front won almost half thetoward imposing Islamic rule in Egypt. provided graphic evidence that a reli-votes cast in parliamentary elections in gious resurgence was under way. ThisDecember 1991 and would probably Mubarak: growing discontent was followed by the assassination ofhave won the runoff elections in JanuaryIn an attempt to defuse Egyptian anger EgyptianPresident Anwar al-Sadat1992, if the military had not canceledover poor economic and social condi- (1970-81) by a secret organization thatthem. In Jordan, on the other hand, Is-tions, Mubarak, the successor to Sadat called itself Holy War. Partly out of fearlamists were trounced in elections lastand current president, gave Islamists that Iran would export its revolution,November. more freedom to operate. He allowed most Arab states and the U.S. backed Some more-secular Middle EasternersMuslim Brotherhood supporters to run Iraq in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. Thebelieve governments should invite Islam- for seats in parliament, and they were war ended in a stalemate, much to the re-ists to share power so that the impracti- very successful in local elections in 1987. lief of countries that feared an Iraniancality of their programs will be revealedWhile not a legal political party, they victory, and the Iranian revolution hasand they will be forced to share blame for now constitute the largest opposition not been replicated elsewhere. unpopular pcilicies. This is already hap-bloc. Muslim Brotherhood activists con- After the defeat of Iraq by a Unitedpening in Iran. Others are opposed, fear-trol key professional syndicates, notably Nations coalition in the Persian Gulf waring that, if given power, Islamists would those for lawyers, doctors, engineers and of 1991, the power of Islamic groupsimpose an intolerant version of thejournalists. They are also influential in (some of which had supported IraqiSharia. "I believe freedom should not bethe media and the educational system, as President Saddam Hussein) seemedgiven to the enemies of freedom," sayswell as among student groups on cam- slight next to the victorious armies of theHussein Amin, a former Egyptian ambas-puses. The organization criticizes the "moderate" Arab states such as Egyptsador to Algeria. government for human-rights abuses, corruption and the lack of democracy. It has also denounced the violence of the militants, although some suspect its sin- cerity in doing so. Islam in North Africa While tolerating the mainstream Mus- lim Brotherhood, the Egyptian govern- THE CONFRONTATION between Islam and successor, Sadat, sought to legitimize hisment has cracked down on the militant the state is particularly acute in North own rule by appealing to Islam. HeIslamic Group, which draws its inspira- Africa. In three case studies, strong simi-called himself "The Believer President"tion from Sheik Abdel Rahman (at larities emerge: deteriorating economicand employed Islamic rhetoric and slo- present imprisoned in New York City). conditions, the increasing politicization ofgans. The 1973 war with Israel was por- The Islamic Group, originally a stu- the Islamists, and the fierce state response. trayed as a jihad; the battle cry of thedent wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, EGYPT Egyptian troops was Allahu Akbar (Godlater broke with it and established a base Is Great). Sadat also allowed the Mus-of support in upper Egypt, particularly in lim Brotherhood to function openly.the town of Asyut, and in the slums Islam vs. the state Sadat calculated that the Islamic groupsaround the capital city of Cairo. The The present confrontation between Is-he was cultivating would neutralize thegroup propagatesitsideas through lamic forces and the Egyptian govern- influence of the leftists and Nasseritesschools, clinics, mosques and the chari- ment has been building for two decades.who opposed his pro-Western policies. ties it controls. Apart from its political After the death of Nasser in 1970, his While Sadat's prestige rose abroad af- agenda, the group provides social ser- 74 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 7 oric ISLAM AND POLITICS 7 In the past, U.S. ties with Algeria were coolit was regarded as a Soviet client, strongly opposed to Israel and a lead- The U.S. and North Africa ing anti-imperialist at the UN and in Third World forums. Eco- nomic relations were another matter, however, with the U.S. THE ISSUES CONFRONTINGthe U.S.how to deal with militantimporting oil and natural gas. Algeria played an important role religious groups, how strongly to encourage democracy,in negotiating an end to the Iranian hostage crisis in early 1981, free elections and respect for human rightsapply tofor which the U.S. was grateful. But Algerians always chafed at countries both inside and outside the Islamic world. The coun-the U.S. preference for closer relations with its neighbor and ri- tries in these case studies, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, haveval, the pro-West Morocco. each had a different pattern of relations with the U.S. U.S. relationS with Tunisia have traditionally been warm. U.S. ties with North Africa go back to the earliest days ofThe U.S. has provided about a third of independent Tunisia's the republic. Harassment of American ships by the corsairs (pi- economic and military assistance, although the amount is small rate ships) of the Barbary Coast was the original impetus be-(around $1.4 billion in the period 1957-90). Military aid was hind the formation of the U.S. Navy. It also led to a treaty be-aimed at fortifying the country against Libya. Tunisia under tween the U.S. and Algiers in 1795, under which the U.S. Bourguiba was pro-West and closely tied to France. In October agreed to pay an annual tribute to safeguard its shipping. Simi- 1985, an Israeli air raid on PLO headquarters in Tunis, Tunisia's lar treaties followed with Tripoli (the capital of present-daycapital, provoked an anti-American outcry. For years the main Libya) in 1796 and Tunis (1799). The annual tribute to Algiers U.S. concern was the stability of the government. While the was abolished in 1816, and Barbary piracy was suppressed after succession to Bourguiba was peaceful, social problems have not joint action by the European powers in 1819. been solved, so Tunisia's future remains in question. For the next 120 years, the U.S. had little reason to get in- U.S. relations with Egypt, perhaps the most influential Arab volved in North Africa. With Algeria and Tunisia French colo- country and closest U.S. ally in the Middle East, are another nies, and Egypt under British tutelage, the U.S. saw no reasonmatter entirely. Ties were tense during the presidency of to interfere. Only during World War II, when U.S. troops were Nasser, a secular nationalist who promoted pan-Arabism and sent to help evict Axis forces, did many Americans learn aboutaccepted Soviet military support. But they blossomed under the area. Not until the French territories reached independencePresident Sadat, who broke with the Soviets and signed a peace was there a pressing need to formulate policies toward them. treaty with Israel. Sadat's assassination contributed to the U.S. With the notable exception of Egypt, the U.S. did not haveperception of a serious "Islamic threat" to its interests in the important interests in North Africa during the cold war otherMiddle East. Egypt has received $35 billion in U.S. financial than to exclude the Soviet Union and secure American lines ofassistance since 1975. communication in the Mediterranean. In the new Middle East, The U.S. regards President Mubarak as a key force for mod- the fact is that Algeria and Tunisia are not particularly impor- eration. Many Americans have noted, however, that in order to tant to the U.S. The same cannot be said of the Islamicdefuse explosive tensions between the Cairo government and movements. Islamists, Egypt will have to make reforms.

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BY WRIGHT FOR THE PALM BEACH POST GREAT DECISIONS 1994 75 78 , 7 ISLAM AND POLITICS vices where the government's are lack- month, and some 23% of the populationIslamists, who had built their own net- ing: for example, it supplied rapid relieflive in absolute poverty, according to the work of private mosques, blamed the after a major earthquake struck Cairo inUnited Nations Development Program. secular elite who had governed them for 1992. The New York Times, reflecting a corn- a quarter of a century for depriving them In 1993 the Islamic Group stepped upmonly held view, editorialized: "Mr.of the fruits of independence. its struggle with the state. It battled withMubarak's inbred, bureaucratic and unre- Coptic Christians, an important minority, sponsive regime has lost touch with the Riots and reforms in Asyut, and attacked security officials needs and feelings of large numbers ofThe government of Col. Chad li Benjedid and cabinet ministers throughout theordinary Egyptians. The Islamic insur-(1979-92) attempted to impose economic country. Nobel Prize winner Naguibgency, fueled by the fiery rhetoric ofreforms and introduce limited democrati- Mahfouz, whose novel, The Children ofSheik Omar Abdel Rahman and others, zation. However, the measures employed Our Street, was considered disrespectful has survived repression and grown aswere not aggressive enough to make a of Islam, is reportedly at the top of its much through government incompetencereal difference. By 1988, when consumer death list. The Islamic Group has also as through fundamentalist fanaticism. subsidies were sharply curtailed, more warned foreign tourists not to visit Egypt, In January 1993, Mubarak said that hethan a quarter of the work force was un- and several have been killed. As a result, was trying to spare Egypt the fate of Al-employed. "By the end of the 1980s there tourism, Egypt's largest employer and geria. His strategy is evidently to denywas an enormous gap between revolu- foreign-exchange earner, experienced a Islamists a role in the political process. Buttionary rhetoric and the oppressive nature 30% to 40% drop-off in business in theby lumping all Islamists together, he risksof Algeria's domestic political economic first half of 1993. alienating voices for moderation. Muslimorder," according to Professor John P. Brotherhood leaders warn that any crack-Entelis of Fordham University. The crackdown down will only swell the ranks of the mili- The result was major rioting in Octo- By October 1993 over 200 people had tants, something the government wants to ber 1988. Some dubbed this the couscous been killed in politically related violence,avoid. revolt, a reference to the staple food then and the government responded force- in short supply. The government soon re- fully, rounding up thousands of suspects. ALGERIA gained control, and Benjedid instituted Since October 1992 militants have been unprecedented changes to permit political tried in military courts, ensuring that their Democracy aborteda pluralism. The monopoly of the FLN on cases will be heard rapidly without possi-In Algeria, a French colony from 1830 to senior government and military posts was bility of appeal or problems with proce- 1962, Islam provided a focus of identityended. A new constitution of February dural rights. Last August, a civilian courtdistinct from that of the colonizer, espe- 1989 guaranteed freedom of expression acquitted all those charged with assassi- cially during the bitter war for indepen- and the right to form political associa- nating the speaker of parliament in 1990,dence (1954-62). Afterward, the state tions. In July 1989, a multiparty political finding that some confessions had beenembarked on a socialist course under thesystem was approved that gave the first obtained by torture. In June 1993, theleadership of the military and the domi- opportunity for the opposition, including first executions of Islamists in a de-nant political party, the National Libera- theIslamists,todemonstratetheir cadesince the trial of Sadat's murder-tion Front (FLN), which had led thestrength. Algeria briefly became the fre- erstook place. struggleagainst the French. Underest country in the Arab world. Many Egyptians disapprove of theHouari Boumediene (1965-78), the state violence. After the assassination of a po-had healthy revenues from the sale of oil Rise of the FIS lice general in March 1993 in upperand natural gas and was able to provideThese riots and reforms presaged the rise Egypt, thousands of mourners attendedjobs and economic progress while exert-of a politically powerful Islamic move- his funeral in protest. Some charge thating close control over society. It moni- ment in Algeria. The Islamic Salvation Egypt's Islamist organizations are just astored Islamic activities through its Minis-Front (FIS), led by Abbasi Madani, a uni- authoritarian as the government. Accord-try of Religious Affairs, which adminis-versity professor, quickly became the ing to sociologist Sami Zubaida, "Fartered an estimated 5,000 mosques. dominant political force in the country. from being popular organizations, the Is- As in Iran, the state acquired the trap- The FIS emphasized the necessity of lamic associations constitute the instru-pings of a modernized nation, but the cul- winning political power so it could insti- ment by which the Islamist current con-tural identity of most Algerians lay in Is- tute Islamic government. Its style was trols and directs the masses. They do notlam. When oil revenues plunged frompopulist. "The leaders of the FIS...speak encourage or foster autonomous popular$13 billion per year in 1985 to $8 billiona religious language, but this language is organization or action, but treat thethereafter, the economy deteriorated and not theologicalit is political, social and masses as objects of religious reform anddiscontent mounted. The lack of jobs, sti-economic," according to the Algerian so- control." fling bureaucracy, poor education andciologist Lahouari Addi. Like the Mus- Most observers believe that militarygovernment control of the media led tolim Brotherhood in Egypt, the FIS car- measures alone will not eradicate thedemands for more freedom. ried out social-welfare activities. (It ob- problem. The support for the Islamists As in other Islamic countries, thistained significant funding from Saudi arises from popular frustration withmalaise has been increasingly expressedArabia and the Persian Gulf states, but rigged elections, poor job prospects and ain a return to religion. The Iranian revo-this dried up due to Algerians' support low standard of living. The average sal-lution provided a strong source of inspi-for Saddam Hussein during the Persian ary of a government employee is $50 aration for the dispossessed and dispirited. Gulf war.) 76 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 79 TOPIC ISLAM AND POUTICS 7 The FIS won a major victory in the 1992, the Algerian government has beenists were on the brink of winning power June 1990 municipal and provincial elec-locked in an escalating struggle with thefairly, only to have it taken away from tions, completely overshadowing theFIS, now transformed into a guerrillathem. By the fall of 1993, the FIS was FLN. In December 1991 parliamentaryarmy whose strength is estimated attorn by internal disputes and accused by elections, it won 188 seats out of 430.10,000 to 15,000. (Included are somethe government of assassinating a num- One of the losing candidates, Be laid1,000 Algerian veterans of the war inber of public figures, including, in Au- Abdessalam (a well-known former cabi-Afghanistan.) The FIS has launchedgust,. a former prime minister. The FIS net minister), complained afterward, "Iattacks against security forces, top gov- has now set up a leadership in exile. So wasn't beaten by a political party, I wasernment officials and leading intellectu- far the government has resisted pressure beaten by God." als. The government is routinely resort- to negotiate with the FIS, and prospects The FIS victory represented a massiveing to torture in retaliation. In April 1993,for an end to the strife, which has re- vote of no confidence in the Benjedidin an admission of defeat, the govern- sulted in over 2,000 deaths since January government. It did not necessarily meanment sent 15,000 troops to occupy 1992, are poor. a majority of Algerians wanted an Is-Algiers. "This is an increasingly dirty lamic government. Algeria has a long war, one in which both sides have TUNISIA legacy of secularism, yet no strong secu-decided that normal rules of decency lar party contested the election. In fact,cannot prevail," according to Francis Continuing standoff due to low turnout, less than a quarter ofGhiles of the London Financial Times. Tunisia, like Algeria part of French registered voters actually cast ballots for The government is no closer to solv-North Africa, was a protectorate from the FIS, and, compared to the 1990 elec-ing the major social and economic prob- 1883 until 1956. After independence, un- tions, the FIS received over a millionlems that led people to vote against it inder the leadership of President Habib fewer votes. the first place. Much support for the FISBourguiba, who had led the national Runoff elections were scheduled fornow seems to come from those disgustedstruggle against the French, Tunisia de- January 1992, with the FIS expected towith the government's inability to stimu-nied Islamists a role in state policy. win a parliamentary majority. However, late economic growth and restart the po- Bourguiba governed through a mass or- before they could take place, the militarylitical process. Even junior officers in the ganization, the Neo-Destour party (later stepped in and pressured the president to military have collaborated with the Is-renamed the Destourian Socialist party). resign, annulled the elections and out-lamists in some attacks. "Algerians areAfter three decades in power and with lawed the FIS. Since then, Algeria has increasingly weary and cynical. There is social unrest growing, Bourguiba was been governed by a military-dominatedwidespread despair at the inability andousted in 1987 by Zine al-Abidine Ben High State Council. lack of will among the country's leadersAli, the current president. to do anything more than remain in Ben Ali took steps to introduce de- The 'dirty war' power through force," commented Themocracy and permitted Islamists more What would have happened if the elec-Middle East magazine. freedom, but he did not allow them to run tions had been held and the FIS had won Unlike Iran, where revolution wasfor office. Like Sadat and Mubarak in control of parliament? Would it have re-carried out in the streets, Algerian Islam-Egypt, Ben Ali employed Islamic slogans spected the demo- and symbolsto craticprocess that .2 win Islamist sup- led it to power? No A port; he observed one knows. It is Ramadan (Islam's clear that the FIS annual month of would have tried fasting from dawn toestablishthe tosunset),and Sharia as the posters portrayed source of law and him in the white would have made robes of a hajji social equality in (onewho has ra- employment and-111111111 'I made a pilgrimage housing a priority. to Mecca) during Itwould likely the 1989 election. have imposed "Is- AsinEgypt lamic standards" and Algeria, when on women to en- social discontent sure their mod- mounted in Tuni- esty. Whether it sia in the 1980s, would havere- Islamic groups spected the rights became the focus of secular Algeri- of opposition to ansisan openJANUARY 10, 1992:Tens of thousands gathered for Friday prayers at a mosque in Algiers to hearthegovernment. question. their leaders predict an FIS victory in the upcoming election. The next day the election wasThey accused the Since Januarycanceled. French-speaking

80 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 77 TOPIC 7 ISLAM AND POLITICS elite, whom Bourguiba had promoted, ofsonal Status Code, which guaranteedArabs and Israelis will not break it." betraying the country and demanded thewomen's rights. (The pronouncements of How to deal with a transnational phe- imposition of Islamic law. Their leader,the MTI on the subject of democracy nomenon like Islam is causing consterna- Rgshid Ghannoushi, founded the mostwere ambiguous; some members clearlytion among policymakers. The U.S. ap- important of the Islamic groups, the Is-opposed it.) pears to have little leverage on the Mus- lamic Tendency Movement (MTI) in The government's refusal to permitlim masses. What can, or should, the 1981. the Renaissance party to participateU.S. do? Ghannoushi's group started out as aopenly in political life has led to the supposedly nonpolitical Koran Preserva-radicalization of the movement and in- U.S. dilemmas tion Society, but was subsequently trans- creasingly violent confrontations with the President Clinton noted at the UN on formed into a political movement. Draw- state. In its crackdown, the governmentSeptember 27 that "the end of the cold ing members from a broad spectrum ofhas been accused by Amnesty Interna- war did not bring us to the millennium of society, Ghannoushi addressed their con-tional of abusing human rights, particu- peace. Indeed, it simply removed the lid cernsnotably jobs, political participa-larly those of women whose relativesfrom many caldrons of ethnic, religious tion and a rejection of Western cultural were partisans of the Renaissance party. and territorial animosity." He might have imperialism. He took his message to As in Algeria, hopes of political lib-added that some of the most threatening mosques and university campuses, whereeralization in Tunisia were raised andcaldrons are in the Middle East and more and more students adopted "Is- then dashed. Ben Ali has not introduced North Africa. lamic" garb. the democracy he promised upon taking So far the Administration has made Ben Ali's accession to power and hisoffice, and he rules in a dictatorial man- few policy pronouncements regarding the call for a multiparty system encouragedner like his predecessor. He is expectedIslamic world. Anthony Lake, the Presi- the Islamists. However, the success ofto be a candidate in the March 1994dent's national security adviser, noted MTI supporters running as independentspresidential elections and has hinted thatlast September that "we will extend every in the 1989 elections, and the strongthe five legal opposition parties (notexpression of friendship to those of the showing of the FIS in Algerian electionsincluding the Islamists, who appear toIslamic faith who abide in peace and tol- the following year, frightened the Tunishave popular support) will be allowederance. But we will provide every resis- government. Ben Ali refused to legalizeto join parliament. As in Egypt and Al- tance to militants who distort Islamic the MTI (in 1989 it changed its name togeria, the secular opposition in Tunisia doctrines and seek to expand their influ- the Renaissance party), which preventedso far has failed to offer a viable alter-ence by force." it from participating in elections. Henative. As in Egypt, tourism is a key The Administration has taken a firm claimed that doing so could lead to an Is-sector of Tunisia's economy, providingstand against what it terms the "backlash lamic state that would not respect thesome 20% of foreign revenues, and anystates," such as Iran and Iraq, that it rights of secularly oriented Tunisians. Inescalation of the unrest would have seri- charges are likely to sponsor terrorism particular, it might try to undo the Per-ous consequences. and trade in weapons of mass destruction. It seeks to isolate them and, if directly threatened, strike back. The U.S. appears to have endorsed the idea, promoted by Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, The U.S. Islam that Iran and Sudan are the main instiga- tors of Islamic militancy. The role of foreign support is a complex one to assess, and North Africa however, since the countries where the Islamists operate have enough internal problems to account for religiously in- AFTER THE LANDMARK reconciliation in 1991, the strategic significance of the spired unrest. between Israel and the PLO last Sep-Middle Easta long-time rationale for President Mubarak has claimed that tember, Middle East politics, and U.S.U.S. involvementhas been reduced. the World Trade Center bombing could foreign policy, will no longer be the Tensions between the U.S. and states thathave been avoided had the U.S. listened same. Although not a party to the secretwere formerly regarded as Soviet clients, to his warnings that Islamic extremists talks that produced the agreement, thesuch as Algeria and Syria, have dissi-were operating here. He has also seemed U.S. and President Clinton are to be thepated. The former Soviet threat, how-to suggest that the U.S. created a mon- main guarantors of the most significant ever, has now been replaced in the minds ster when it encouraged fundamentalist regional peace pact since the Egyptianof many by "Islamic fundamentalism."Muslims in Afghanistan to take up arms Israeli peace treaty of 1979. The normal- Although the settlement with the Pales-and fight the Soviets. An estimated ization of relations between Israel andtinians was reached over the Islamists' 20,000 to 30,000 Arab volunteers poured neighboring Arab statesJordan, Syriaobjections, it will not necessarily resultinto Afghanistan, inspired by thoughts and Lebanonwhich is expected to fol-in any decline in support for Islam. "Theof Holy War. Some 6,000 of them were low in the near future, would remove aArab-Israeli conflict did not make theinvolved in the fighting that eventually significant source of tension within theIslamic movement," according toforced the Soviets out and contributed region. Professor Richard W. Bulliet of Colum- to the success of U.S. policy. Now secu- With the collapse of the Soviet Unionbia University, "and peace betweenrity officials in Algeria, Tunisia and 78 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 OPIC ISLAM AND POLITICS 7 Egypt complain that these so-called 1 Afghans have returned home to stir up \ trouble.

as..t zs U.S. policy options There are three major questions to be addressed by U.S. policymakers as they search for a way to deal with Islam and politics in three North African nations. 1. Is the Islamic revival a threat to U.S. interests? Judith Miller, a writer for The New York Times, believes the rise of militant Islamic governments "would be a catastrophe for democrats and Western- minded Arabs in the region." In her view, the Clinton Administration should reject the assumption that Islamic forces are destined to come to power in the Middle East, and the U.S. should reaffirm its belief in the necessity of keeping temporal TANKS PATROL DOWNTOWN ALGIERSin October 1988 after a week of rioting by youths and and spiritual power separate. Islamists protesting declining living standards. President Benjedid responded by planning a Professor Esposito believes the Is- referendum on political and economic reforms. lamic revival should be regarded more asU.S. appeared to side with the forces ofgional stability so valuable that economic a challenge to the West's complacencyrepression. The U.S. also has not criti-mismanagement and corruption there can than as a threat to be feared. He com-cized the October 1993 referendum (abe tolerated? ments, "movements are more often moti- patently unfair single-candidate contest) Observers are unanimous that the ap- vated by objection to specific Westernwhich guaranteed President Mubarak an-peal of Islamic movements would be policies than by cultural hostility....U.S.other six years in power. "So long as theblunted if the economic situation in their presence and policy, not a genetic hatred Islamist movements are given no voice in respective countries improved. This will for Americans, is often the primary moti-politics, there can be no surprise thatsoon be put to the test in Gaza and the vating force behind acts against Ameri-their rhetoric will be shrill and theirWest Bank, where an infusion of cash, can government, business and militarystance uncompromising," according toalong with a recognized political role, interests." He urges that Americans makeBoston Universitypoliticalscientistmay reduce the appeal of Hamas, a radi- a greater effort to differentiate betweenAugustus Richard Norton. "In contrast, cal Palestinian group that has opposed Islamic movementsthose that are mod-well-designed strategies of political in-peace with Israel. erate and those that are extremist. "U.S.clusion hold great promise for facilitating perception of a monolithic 'Islamicessential political change." * * * threat' often contributes to support for Human rights are a concern of the op- repressive governments in the Muslimposition in all Middle Eastern countries,Former President Jimmy Carter, who has world and thus to the creation of a self-and what they see as U.S. reticence onbeen deeply involved with Middle East fulfilling prophecy." this subject leads Islamists to charge that politics for over a decade, recently com- 2. Should the U.S. continue to sup-the U.S. is employing a double standard.plained that Americans' "obsession" with port friendly governments if they op-Secretary of State Warren M. Christo-Islam is unfair. He told newsmen, "I pose free elections and violate humanpher has noted that respect for humanthink there is too much of an inclination rights? rights generally leads to peaceful andin this country to look on Muslims as in- Past Administrations have regardedstable countries, and he has served notice herently terrorist or inherently against the stability and the willingness to work withthat the U.S. would hold countries to aWest. I don't see that when I meet these the West as the main criteria for regionaluniversal standard. Does this mean thatpeople." With peace in prospect for the allies. Despite the shortcomings of thethe U.S. is prepared to put pressure onIsraelis and Palestinians, more energy Egyptian and Saudi Arabian govern-Egypt, which has been accused of seriousand resources should be released to ad- ments, many Americans believe they are human rights violations by international dress the grievances that have bred mal- more likely to contribute to stability inwatchdog groups? aise throughout the Middle East. the Middle East than Islamists who, if 3. Should the U.S. attach strings on Although a religious revival among given power, might impose an intolerant,aid to Egypt (currently running at $2mainstream Muslims is likely to con- anti-Western order. On the other hand, ifbillion per year)? tinue, the introduction of political and the U.S. wants to encourage free elec- Should the U.S. insist that the Egyp-economic reforms would help undercut tions, it must be prepared to accept thetian government eliminate corruption andthe rationale for religiously inspired vio- increasing number of Islamists elected to make greater economic reforms beforelence against governments throughout office. By not condemning the overturnmore money is advanced? Or is Egypt's the region, many of whom have close ties of election results in Algeria in 1991, thecontribution to the peace process and re- to the U.S.

GREAT D,ECISIONS 1994 79 82 TOPIC 7 ISLAM AND POLITICS 3. Algeria briefly enjoyed a multipartyfrontation between the government and political system. Was the subdued U.S. Islamists has recently replaced coopera- response to the cancellation of the Alge- tion. Could this have been avoided? rian elections consistent with American What would reverse the trend? support of democracy? 6. Do you think the reconciliation be- 1. Should the U.S. press the Mubarak4. Some observers see the rise of mili-tween Israel and the P.L.O. will dampen government harder to introduce demo-tant Islamic groups as a danger to theor stimulate the Islamic resurgence? cratic reforms and respect human rights?U.S. Others do not consider the various Or should it refrain from criticizing aIslamic political movements a threat but, 7. Author Salman Rushdie has com- valuable friend who helped bring aboutthey warn, if the U.S. continues to sup-plained that if "the mullahs get all the the Israeli-Palestinian settlement? port authoritarian governments, it will headlines while progressive, modernizing end up radicalizing moderates. What arevoices are treated as minor and mar- 2. According to Saudi Arabia's Kingyour views? ginal... then the fundamentalists are be- Fand, "the prevailing democratic system ing allowed to set the agenda." Have the in the world is not suitable for us in this5. What accounts for the widespread views of the nonviolent majority of Mus- region, for our peoples' composition andsupport Islamist groups have attracted inlims been overlooked? Who is to blame traits are different from the traits of thatNorth Africa and elsewhere in thefor the stereotype of the Islamic funda- world." Do you agree or disagree? Middle East? In Egypt and Algeria, con-mentalist as a bomb-throwing terrorist?

Muslih, Muhammad, and Norton, Augustus Richard, "Political Tides in the Arab World." Headline Series No. 296. New York, Foreign Policy Association, 1991. 72 pp. $5.95. Salm* Ghassan, "Islam and the West." Foreign Policy, Spring 1993, pp. 22-37. Discusses vulnerability of Middle East Appleby, R. Scott, "The Dynamics of Religious Fundamental- governments to the Islamist challenge and suggests possible ism." Headline Series No. 301. New York, Foreign PolicyWestern responses. Association, 1994 (forthcoming). 72 pp. $5.95. Zartman, I. William, and Habeeb, William M., eds., Polity and Bulliet, Richard W., "The Future of the Islamic Movement."Society in Contemporary North Africa. Boulder, Colo., Foreign Affairs, November/December 1993, pp. 38-44. TheWestview Press, 1993. 285 pp. $59.50. Overview of the trans- author examines the Islamic movement's role in the PLO- formations in North Africa since independence and current re- Israeli peace process. ligious, economic, demographic and political trends.

Esposito, John L., The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality? AMERICA-MIDEAST EDUCATIONAL AND TRAINING SERVICES,1100 New York, Oxford University Press, 1992. 243 pp. $9.95.17th St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036; (202) 785-0022. Leading expert explores diversity of the Islamic resurgence and Amideast seeks to increase understanding between the U.S., seeks to refute Western notions of a hostile, monolithic Islam. the Middle East and North Africa through education, information and development programs. Experts available to speak. Hadar, Leon T., "What Green Peril?" and Miller, Judith, "The Challenge of Radical Islam." Foreign Affairs, Spring 1993, pp. AMERICAN EDUCATIONAL TRUST,P.O. Box 53062, Washington, 27-56. Two opposing views of the challenges posed by Islamic DC 20009; (202) 939-6050. A research and educational insti- fundamentalism. tution dedicated to issues on the Middle East and North Africa. Publishes Washington Report on Middle East Affairs monthly. Haddad, Yvonne Y., Voll, John 0., and Esposito, John L., eds., MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE,1761 N. St., N.W., Washington, DC The Contemporary Islamic Revival: A Critical Survey and20036; (202) 785-1141.MEI serves as a resource center pro- Bibliography. New York, Greenwood Press, 1991. 230 pp. viding information on recent developments. Publishes The $55.00. Very useful annotated bibliography. Each editor con-Middle East Journal quarterly. tributes an excellent introductory essay. MIDDLE EAST STUDIES ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA,1232 N. Lake, Anthony, "From Containment to Enlargement." U.S. Cherry Ave., University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721; (602) Department of State Dispatch, September 27, 1993, pp. 658- 621-5850. MESA is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership or- 64. Remarks by President Clinton's national security adviser onganization comprised of academics, students and others inter- September 21, 1993, on the Administration's approach to for-ested in the Middle East and North Africa. eign policy. NATIONAL COUNCIL ON U.S.-ARAB RELATIONS,1735 I St., N.W., Mortimer, Robert A., "Algeria: The Clash between Islam, De-Suite 515, Washington, DC 20006; (202) 293-0801.Promotes mocracy, and the Military." Current History, January 1993, U.S. understanding of Islam and the Arab world through visits pp. 37-41. A leading observer reviews the political situation into the region. Offers a wide range of audiovisuals, books, the wake of the military takeover of January 1992. reports, curriculum materials, as well as speakers. 80 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 83 OPINION BALLOTS How to use the Opinion Ballots:For your convenience, there are two copies of each opinion ballot. Please cut out and mail one ballot only. To have your vote counted, please mail ballots by June 30, 1994. Send ballots to: FOREIGN POLICY ASSOCIATION, 729 SEVENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, N.Y. 10019 .M-11111-11-11MM11111MMI-11111M1-11-MIMI-1110M-11111-MIIIIIM111-1111-111011MIM-111111BWIE111111-101111-1111-M1- P I 0 TOPIC I 0 TOPIC I 0 7Islam and Politics 1 7 Islam and Politics O I 1 O I ISSUE A.In its relations with Egypt, Algeria and Tuni- I ISSUE A.In its relations with Egypt, Algeria and Tuni- I p sia, the U.S. should give its highest priority to (check one sia, the U.S. should give its highest priority to (check one 1 only): I only): I 11 1. Supporting governments that back Arab- I 1. Supporting governments that back Arab- I Israeli peace process. I Israeli peace process. 111 2. Promoting free elections. I 2. Promoting free elections. 0 3. Supporting human rights. I 3. Supporting human rights. 0 I4.Encouraging economic and social reforms. I 4. Encouraging economic and social reforms. 0 0 5. Supporting repression of Islamic movements. III 5. Supporting repression of Islamic movements. I I6.Other, or comment I 6. Other, or comment I 0 I 0 I 0 I 1 4 0 I I 1 III I I I 0 1 1 4 111 First three digits of your zip code: I First three digits of your zip code: 0 I : IDate:/ /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... I Date: / /1994 Ballot continues on reverse side... II 1.1...... 11...... 0I . I I I I TOPIC TOPIC I I 8 New World Disorder? I 8 New World Disorder? 0 I 1 I 1 IISSUEA.To further the national interest, the U.S. I ISSUE A.To further the national interest, the U.S, II should (choose one): I should (choose one): I 0 1 I 1. Expand NATO to include nations from the I 1. Expand NATO to include nations from the 0 1 former Warsaw Pact. former Warsaw Pact. O I I 2. Maintain NATO as it is. I 2. Maintain NATO as it is. I 3. Withdraw from NATO. I 3. Withdraw from NATO. I 1 I I I 1 1 1 I 0 0 I I 0 1 U 0 I 11 1 1 4 I 1 I I 1 First three digits of your zip code: 4 First three digits of your zip code: I Date: / /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... IDate:/ /1994Ballot continues on reverse side... III 1 ilk=NE-M-IN-M-111111M M I NIM1111-M-M-11.-M-MI-M11111-M-111111-M-M-111111-M-111-M-11111-M-M-1111- M-M-111111-1M1-111 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 81 84 OPINION BALLOTS

r III IN - IN III 111811111881111111 MI1111111111111111111 11111 11111 MI WIN III M 111 IN 181-1111 MIN IIIIN El -. l I 1 ISSUE B.With regard to the Islamic revival, do you con- I ISSUE B.With regard to the Islamic revival, do you con- ! I sider it a threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East? I sider it a threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East? I I I I 1. Yes. Cl1. Yes. I I I ID2. No. I 10 2. No. 0 111 I I I I I I I 0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 0 I I I I I 0 Il I I I I I I I I I I F...... 111...... u.I !0 I Il ISSUE B.In East Asia and the Western Pacific, the U.S. I ISSUE B.In East Asia and the Western Pacific, the U.S. I I should: should: YES NO I I I YES NO 1 1. Maintain the present military and 1. Maintain the present military and naval posture in the region. I I I naval posture in the region. 0 10 I 2. Withdraw troops from South Korea 2. Withdraw troops from South Korea and Japan while maintaining present I and Japan while maintaining present I I naval posture in the region. 10 I I naval posture in the region. U 10 I 3. Reduce present military and naval I 3. Reduce present military and naval I posture in the region. Cl I posture in the region. 0 U I 4. Negotiate overall arms reductions 111 4. Negotiate overall arms reductions I with the other powers of the region. 0 I with the other powers of the region. 0 0 I I I ISSUE C. I With regard to America's democratic mission, ISSUE C.With regard to America's democratic mission, l I the U.S. should: I the U.S. should: .! I YES NO I YES NO I I 1. Restore democracy in Haiti. I 0 0 I 1. Restore democracy in Haiti. 0 0 I 2. Deploy U.S. forces to act as 2. Deploy U.S. forces to act as Peacekeepers under United Nations I peacekeepers under United Nations I I command. U 0 I I command. U CI 3. Deploy U.S. forces to act as I 3. Deploy U.S. forces to act as i peacekeepers under U.S. command. 0 U I peacekeepers under U.S. command. 0 0 I I I 8216...... -.1....-.-.1.-...-.-.1.11...... GREAT DECISIONS 1994 el 85 10PIC ESSAY 8 New worlddisorder? U.S. in search of arole

In the post-cold-war world, America's vital interests arelikely to remain the stability of Europe, the balance of power in East Asia and the WesternPacific, and the economic and military security of North America. These interests mustbe tied to the larger interest of promoting global growth and equity.

by James Chace

T WOULD BE AN 1993 drew to a close 66 irony of fate if that was precisely what my Administra- was happening. tion had to deal chiefly Haiti: setback with foreign affairs"so for democracy said Woodrow Wilson in 1913 as he left Princeton, For the U.S., tur- N.J., for his first inaugu- moil was also raging ration in Washington, within its own sphere D.C. President William of influence. In Haiti, Jefferson Clinton might the unwillingness of well have echoed these the militarytostep words as he boarded the down and restore the plane from Little Rock, freely elected populist Arkansas, to the White president, Father Jean- House in January 1993. Bertrand Aristide, Bedevilled by an endless posedadangerous war in the former Yugo- problem for an Ameri- slavia, a humanitarian JOSEPH FERRIS. 0 1993 BY THE NEW YORK TIMES CO. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION. can government that mission gone sourinSomalia,seeminglyintractablehad always preferred stability in the Caribbean-Central Ameri- authoritarianism in Haiti and the threatened erosion of the inter- can region. Even if the Clinton Administration had wanted to national trading system, the President and his aides spent muchleave Haiti to the Haitians, that was not advisable because of of their first year in office struggling to define U.S. goals. the likelihood that continued political and economic repression The cold war, after all, had provided two superpowers with would lead to new boatloads of refugees streaming to Floridian the means to control vast areas of the globe. It was a bipolarshores. In addition, there was a significant Haitian minority in world that enforced stability within respective spheres of influ-New York City and Miami, Florida, that would continue to ence. With the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991, however,press Washington to reinstate Aristide, by force if necessary. the simmering conflicts that had never been resolved after the To this end, the Clinton Administration believed it had an breakdown of the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empiresagreement, signed July 3, 1993, with the Haitian military that boiled over.With the further retreat of Russian power, newly emancipated countries on the periphery of the former Soviet TO STIMULATE DISCUSSIONand debate, the Foreign Policy Association invited James Chace, Henry Luce Professor in Freedom of Inquiry and Union came into conflict with one another. In Georgia, in Ar-Expression at Bard College, and editor of World Policy Journal, to menia, in Central Asia, ethnic and religious conflict is likely to write this essay. The views expressed are those of the author. FPA itself be quelled only if Russia asserts a neo-imperial role, and as takes no position on issues of foreign policy. 86 GREAT DECISIONS 199483 NEW WORLD DISORDER?

UNIT 1... TRIMS for cold-war rivalries in East Africa and the U.S. and the Soviet A 2111IN PROGRESS IN BOSNIA... A WO Union had stopped giving aid to its dictator, it disintegrated. IN SOMALIA...A 218 But the U.S. had never admitted that what brought us into So- IN RUSSIA.W..A 214 IN 'TI... malia probably required nothing less than a neocolonial UN trusteeship. Nafta victory While the U.S. may prefer to forsake the use of force in So- malia, Haiti and the remnants of the Communist empire, Wash- ington nonetheless has no intention of withdrawing from the world. Clinton's successful campaign to gain congressional endorsement for an open-trading system through passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) testified to his internationalist commitment. But at the end of the first year ofa

O TRIBUN new Administration, it was also apparent that the President had signally failed to define America's missionunless it be to would allow Aristide to return to power; but when an Americancontain chaos and to make the world safe for democracy, fol- troopship appeared off Port-au-Prince carrying more than 200lowing once again in the footsteps of President Wilsonor,as American "combat engineers and technical advisers" who werenational security adviser Anthony Lake put it when asked to to train and "professionalize" the Haitian military, it wasdefine what comes to mind when Clinton's foreign policy is greeted by scores of civilians shouting anti-Aristide slogans andmentioned, "pragmatic neo-Wilsonian." brandishing automatic weapons. In response, the Administra- tion had the ship turn back and found itself once again hoping Attitudes, not policies that increased economic pressure would bring the military to On another occasion, Lake spoke of the Administration's heel. strategy as the "enlargement of the world's free community of Finally, in Somalia, the ostensibly humanitarian mission ofmarket democracies." Such a policy, however, is likely to prove feeding a starving populationwhich the departing Presidentquixotic: there are market economies, especially in Asia, that George Bush had willed as a dubious legacy to his successorare not by America's definition democratic, just as there are had turned into a political and military nightmare. Clinton'sdemocracies that are committed to a very large measure ofcen- people had initially endorsed the policy of United Nations Sec-tralized control, as in India. Other than Lake's high-minded retary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who had decided thatneo-Wilsonianism, there was nothing said that would clearly Somali clan leader, General Mohammed Farah Aidid, should bedelineate the central contours of American foreign policy. pursued and punished for killing on June 5, 1993, 24 Pakistani When Secretary of State Warren Christopher testified before the soldiers who were in Mogadishu as part of the UN peacekeep-Senate Foreign Relations Committee on November 4, 1993, he ing force. By the fall, Washington was rethinking this policyoffered familiar nostrums of the "overarching priorities" of but had apparently not communicated this to the U.S. com-American foreign policy: "the security of our nation," "the mander there, who had final approval over the use of U.S.prosperity of our people," and the advancement of "our demo- troops as part of the UN mission. On October 3-4, U.S. Armycratic values." Rangers found themselves surrounded by about 400 of Aidid's But these are attitudes not policies. Without even a rough men. Within hours, television screens were displaying picturesroadmap to lead us safely into a new internationalism that of corpses of American soldiers being dragged through theavoids either a latter-day Pax Americana or an illusionary isola- streets. tionism, the signal absence of an articulated foreign policycan Somalia: U.S. to pull out only contribute to disorder abroad and confusion at home. For the Clinton Administration, enough was enough. On Oc- National interests tober 7, the President announced that 15,000 reinforcements What are America's national interests? Are theyso diffi- would be sent to Somalia to protect our soldiers, but also thatcult to define for a broad public? To what extentare they U.S. military personnel would be withdrawn by March 31,long-standing and to what extent have they changed ina world 1994. Our motives, he explained, were pure and our handswere where the linkages between domestic and foreign policies,as clean. But with no discernible national interest involved,President Clinton himself has pointed out, have become Clinton was finally prepared to seek a political solution to whatindivisible? had always been a political problem. The tragedy of Somalia As most Americans now recognize, the U.S. emerged from resulted from warring military and political factions; the suffer-the cold war geopolitically dominant but economically im- ing of the Somalia people did not result from a natural disasterpaired. With the 12-nation European Community (EC) politi- like a famine but rather from a political disaster. Once Somalia cally divided and Japan still in the shadow of its wartime atroci- had ceased to be even remotely important as a staging groundties, neither has been able to assume global responsibilities 84 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 87 TOP! NEW WORLD DISORDER? 8 commensurate with its one nation so to domi- economic strength; yet nate the Continent as to with the disappearance endanger the general of the Soviet threat both peace; we can continue have been increasingly to play a central role as unwillingto follow a holder of the balance Washington's every of power in East Asia command. Without eco- and the Western Pacific; nomic strength to match and we can attempt to its military might, any extend a free-trading American claim to be zonethroughoutthe anything but a military Western Hemisphere. superpower is a hollow To the extent that the one. West depends on American foreign Middle Eastern-Persian policy in the 1990s will Gulf oil, we are also therefore have to choose concerned that the free itsgoals and targets THE WHITE HOUSE flow of oil be available THE HISTORIC RECONCILIATIONbetween the Israelis and the Palestinians, a goal of much more carefully. InDemocratic and Republican Administrations, was marked on September 13, 1993,at reasonable prices to newspapercolumnist on the south lawn of the White House. President Clinton looked on as Yitzhak Rabin,the outside world; for Walter Lippmann's defi-prime minister of Israel, and Yasir Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liberationthat reason we should nition, it will have to Organization, shook hands. be prepared to play a bring into balance, with a fair surplus of power in reserve, therole in ensuring the stability of the Persian Gulf. And for both nation's commitments and the nation's capabilities. The U.S.moral and strategic reasons we remain committed to the secu- may be the only truly global power at the end of the 20th cen-rity of Israel, a functioning democracy that shares our basic turybut neither the American people nor their political lead-values. ers are likely to regard this as an unmixed blessing. Our commitment to democratic values compels us to do In little more than a decade the U.S. has gone from being awhat we can to promote democracy abroad, recognizing that creditor nation to a debtor nation that owes the world almostour ability to create democratic regimes is highly circum- half a trillion dollars. To finance our standard of living wescribed. No American foreign policy can be successful over the printed money from 1967 to 1979; from 1980 to the present, welong term without such a moral component. But our democratic borrowed money, both from abroad, and now increasingly frommission today is not so much a Wilsonian export of democracy ourselves. This money has not and does not go into investment as the effort to create the broad conditions under which democ- and savings. It finances consumer buying, our VCRs and ourracy can take hold. walking shoes. In 1985 we deliberately drove down the value of These interests and these strategies, in turn, are tied to a the dollar in order to get rid of our trade deficit, but we have not larger goal of global economic growth and equity. To this end, succeeded. What we have to learn is that you cannot repair anthe U.S. can strive to prevent the world from falling into hostile economy with a weak currency. trading blocs and to ensure that the rules of international trade So in considering any new foreign policy agenda in defense and investment will help support the existence of social democ- of our national interests, we have to keep in mind that the U.S.racy and social peace. must first and foremost restore its economy to solvency. America's fiscal deficit$290.3 billion for fiscal year 1992 Germany, dominant power in Europe has to be reduced not merely in the short term but also over the In sketching out the contours of the new Europe, which will long haul. This the President understands, although his programnow require the integration of the newly emancipated nations of to do so is modest enough by any standard. Solvency, however, what was once Soviet-controlled Europe, the economic and is not only about a balanced budget. It is about means and ends.political weight of Germany inevitably dominates the land- It is about strengthening the fabric of American society in orderscape. As the great British economist John Maynard Keynes to allow the nation to meet its obligations. wrote of Germany in 1914: "Round Germany as a central support the rest of the European economic system grouped itself, Three priorities and on the prosperity and enterprise of Germany, the prosperity Absent the Soviet threat, America's primary national inter-of the rest of the Continent mainly depended....The whole of ests are and are likely to remain (1) the stability of Europe; (2)Europe east of the Rhine thus fell into the German industrial the balance of power in East Asia and the Western Pacific; and orbit, and its economic life was adjusted accordingly." The Ger- (3) the securityeconomic and militaryof North America. man question is not who will dominate Central Europe, for In the defense of these interests, we can reassure the Europe- surely Germany will do so, but whether the new Europe can ans, both politically and militarily, that we will not permit any accommodate a unified Germany.

GREAT DECISIONS 1994 85 88 OPIC NEW WORLD DISORDER? 8 The emer- flE NAT°ALL'ES 5gouLD tity, able to act gence of Ger- DECIDEHoy To SAVE TkLic in concert with many asthe IALk the U.S. and dominant TALk Canada on po- power in Eu- litical and eco- rope, coupled nomic issues, with the disin- Alt is increasingly L tegration of the remote. Even Soviet em- though almost pirewhile all the Euro- thisis some- pean states thingtobe have approved grateful for the 1992 will force the Maastricht U.S. to rethink treatyestab- its view of the lishing a single direction of market, the Europe. We likelihoodis hadexpected that Europe thattheEC will not make "-oS---A..t* would deepen, much headway and that the po- .00.- toward creat- AUTH0 PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER. REPRINTED WITH PERAAISSOON Of UNWERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. All RIGHTS RESERVED litical unity of ing a common Europe would follow hard upon the single market that was to currency, a common central bank, or a common foreign policy. come into being on January 1, 1993. We anticipated a EuropeanThe German Central Bank's insistence on raising interest rates central bank and a European currency, and eventually a Euro- to attract foreign capital in order to rebuild eastern Germany put pean defense mechanism. pressure on the other members of the European Monetary Sys- tem (EMS), established in 1979, to shore up their own curren- Nationalism and political fragmentation cies. Recession and unemployment followed, and speculators Instead, what we see are two parallel movementson theforced the weakest of them to expend their foreign reserves to one hand, increasing economic integration, not only in such in- support currencies against the all-powerful deutsche mark. Fi- stitutions as the European single market, but globally, withnally, the EMS cracked: London decided it couldn't afford to Nafta and newly emerging Asian groupings, and, on the other tie the British pound to the German mark, Rome followed suit, hand, growing fragmentation. But in Europe and the formerand they abandoned the system in the wake of their devalued Soviet Union the forces of fragmentation are nowand arecurrencies. A few months later, even France was forced to ex- likely to be for some time to comein the ascendancy. Thepend so much of its reserves that the EMS had to be radically political fragmentation in Europe inhibits further political unity;modified so that to all intents and purposes it no longer fulfilled the shift toward market economies by the East European coun- the function for which it was designed. German national pur- tries and the former Soviet Union puts a further strain on any pose and power took precedence over the political construction movement to deepen the EC and thus to move it forward as the of Europe. West European leaders had hoped to do in the late 1980s. Political fragmentation has followed in the wake of ethnic, NATO: expensive fiction? cultural, religious and nationalist movements. On the one hand, As for the Western alliance, its behavior in the light of the how can the EC accommodate countries that are in danger ofYugoslav war has demonstrated its irrelevance. It seems likely splitting apart? On the other hand, how can Europe exclude that history will record the failure of the North Atlantic Treaty countries that aim to become like the West, for example Po- Organization (NATO) to respond to the Bosnian conflict with land, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia? Moreover, military force as evidence of the demise of an alliance that if you exclude countries such as Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, lasted for almost half a century. Founded to deter the expansion not to mention the Balkans, is there not a greater danger inof the Soviet Union and to shore up the Western economic and having these countries outside a European polity than within political system, the Atlantic alliance was one of the signal one? achievements of that extraordinarily creative period in Ameri- can history that brought forth the 1944 Bretton Woods, N.H,. Economic integration stalls conference, which created the International Monetary Fund and The shape of things to come is therefore very different from the World Bank, and later the Marshall Plan and the North what anyone might have imagined a few years ago. The expec- Atlantic Treaty Organization. tation that "Europe"the ECwould emerge as a political en- With the collapse of communism, the task of containing the 86 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 89 TOPIC NEW WORLD DISORDER? 8 Soviet Union no longer existed. The new mission, many of uswill vary crisis by crisis. Moreover, if the U.S. remains con- believed, would be to transform NATO into a broader organiza- cerned with European stability, as it should, it will have to keep tion that might eventually include the former members of thesome bases and troops in Europe for an indefinite period. Soviet military alliance, known as the Warsaw Pact. In this re- In addition, Washington will have to seek allies willing to spect, a transformed NATO would permit American and Rus-use arms to preserve borders from being changed by force sian troops to remain in Europe, not as occupiers but as guaran-rather than negotiation. This could mean, for example, that the tors of the European order. U.S., France and Russia would intervene in a Hungarian-Roma- The primary purpose of the new security organization wouldnian conflict over the lost Hungarian lands now part of Roma- be to preserve the territorial status quo, except where changes nian Transylvania. Even if done under a UN umbrella, it would are mutually agreed upon by both parties. Borders are not be a very traditional way of preserving the peace. carved in stone, but the greatest danger that faces post-cold-war In this respect, the end of the 20th century might come to Europe is rectification of borders by force rather than by nego- resemble the end of the 19th, and America's connection to a tiation. Aggression by any country against its neighbor couldEurope increasingly threatened by authoritarian nationalism then be met with a united reponse from the organization as awould be frayed and tenuous, endangering European stability whole. and America's role in the world. Crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina APEC summit The expansion of Serbia to include large parts of The Administration believes the Asia-Pacific region to be Bosnia-Herzegovinaa state whose sovereignty was recog-the most "lucrative terrain for American exports and jobs," as nized by all the members of NATOwould seem to fulfill theSecretary Christopher put it on the eve of Clinton's meeting in requirements of military intervention in the post-cold-warSeattle, Washington, with the leaders of the 15-member Asia- world. It did not happen. On the other hand, if NATO's mission Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Within APEC is not to contain military conflict across borders, then what role are gathered together all of America's and Japan's major Asian does NATO have to play? trading partners, including even China, Hong Kong and Tai- The U.S. therefore finds itself in a dilemma. Had it taken wan, representing more than half the world's total gross na- unilateral military action in Bosnia, it would have underminedtional product (GNP). In 1992, even without formal ties, U.S. NATO, for it soon became clear that the other members ofexports to the Pacific area totaled $120 billion, and accounted NATO were unwilling to intervene militarily to enforce a settle- for 2.4 million American jobs. ment. Even had the Clinton Administration shown more resolve It is an encouraging sign that the U.S. is committed to play- in its policy toward Serbia, rather than merely threatening toing a central role in preserving the balance of power in East bomb Serbian positions and arm the Bosnians, it would notAsia and the Western Pacific among the four great powers have moved without at least some allied support. But that sup-China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. In that part of the world, port would not have had to entail a NATO action. It could havethere are no supranational organizations that can help stabilize been a traditional coalition, similar to the one President Bush the regionno NATO, no EC. The countries are too big and assembled to wage the Persian Gulf war. remain in a state of dynamic tension. Thus, the crisis in Bosnia revealed that NATO is little more While APEC may be useful in encouraging the Asia-Pacific than an expensive fiction. By failing to push our allies into tak-region to open its markets, the organization is as yet little more ing concerted NATO ac- than a forum aimed at tion and by refusing to fostering market-driven act unilaterally outside growth and liberalizing NATO, Clinton may trade. But the problems have "saved" NATO that Asian economies while at the same time pose for the U.S., and, demonstrating its irrel- indeed, for other highly evance. industrializedecono- In the light of all this, mies, is the unwilling- what is the likely role of ness of Asians to spend the U.S. in Europe? theirmoney.Exces- The most self-defeat- sively high savings act ingpostureforthe as a brake on the growth Clinton Administration of the global economy, would be to cling to the and it is no accident that status quo. With NATO America undergoes moribund, security con- 11410-3 DoNT 114E11 REMILE WERE continuing and rising cerns are likely to be POD WtTR GooD INTENTiott5?" trade deficits with both met by coalitions that AUTH O PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION Of UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. China and Japan. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 90 87 NEW WORLD DISORDER? 1111 For the U.S., the closing of its bases in the Philippines, as Chinese and human rights well as its need to reduce the defense budget, requires it to re- With a phenomenal growth rate, China is trying to manage athink its military posture in the Pacific, even if it does not radi- transition to a market-driven economy while at the same timecally scale down its military and naval deployments in the re- keeping the political lid on. This policy is the conclusion the gion. In short, Washington cannot impose a Pax Pacifica, even aging Chinese gerontocracy came to after the 1989 massacre inif it wants to. Tiananmen Square. Punishing China for human-rights viola- What probably ought to be done, at the very least, is for the tionsif it is done unilaterally by the U.S.is unlikely to haveU.S. to propose broad arms reductionsincluding nuclear a great effect on the Chinese politicial scene, especially whenweaponsamong all the powers of the region. Washington other countries, particularly Japan, are seeking access to theneed not encourage Japan to arm, as it has done in the past, but Chinese market. On the other hand, China very much needs theto disarm. America should engage China, Russia and the American market, as it continues to enjoy a sizable trade sur- Koreas in this same effort. This means that the U.S. Navy must plus with the U.S. At the same time, China is also increasing its also be prepared to reduce the number of aircraft carrier battle defense budget, which causes profound uneasiness in Japan and groups and that the U.S. Army further cut down on the number Russia. By the end of the first decade of the 21st century, Chinaof troops in South Korea and the garrisons in Japan. All this, is likely to be the dominant power in Asia. however, must be part of an overall Asian initiative. But the United States cannotand should notwithdraw from the Relations with Japan region or the fragile balance of power will be destroyed. Japan, in its turn, has extended its "yen-bloc" to Southeast Asia and Thailandwhich is reminiscent of the Greater East North American concerns Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere Japan tried to construct during World Who would deny that the region that should stand at the very War II. At the same time, American fears of Japan's trade sur-apex of U.S. interestsat any timeis North America. Rela- plus of $49 billion a year contribute to anti-Japanese feelings in tions with Canada, whatever the tensions in the past, have never the U.S. In fact, on a per capita basis, according to politicalresulted in open warfare in this century. But the depth of Cana- economist Masuru Tamamoto, Japan now imports more fromdian nationalism is often underestimated or ignored in Wash- America than the U.S. imports from Japanabout $400 a yearington, and the likelihood that Quebec will achieve indepen- as compared with about $370 a year. The U.S. trade deficit withdence by the end of the century cannot be discounted. Japan results in part from the fact that the population of the U.S. The U.S. role in the Caribbean/Central American/Mexican is twice that of Japan. Moreover, the Japanese consumer saves region has, of course, had a very different history. This has been more than does the American, and Americans buy Japanesea traditional U.S. sphere of influence since the 1820s, and while manufactured goods that are no longer made in the U.S.faxour behavior toward the nations of this region has been far from machines, camcorders, industrial robots and high-quality luxuryexemplary, the alternative is not withdrawal but wiser policies. cars. In addition, trade imbalances with Japan and other coun- In Central America, at least, U.S. involvement is winding tries are aggravated by U.S. factories moving abroad. What we down. In the future, Central America's economic problems can are now seeing is a relatively new phenomenon: global manufac- only be resolved by sensible economic and fiscal policies of the turing allows high-tech goods to be produced by low-wage coun- government involved, coupled with a willingness on our part to triesMalaysia, Thailand, the Philippines. In any case, it is lower our trade barriers to its goods. The recourse to Marxist unlikely that such trade balances can be righted by import quo- economics is probably deadbut the return to authoritarianism tas, local-content requirements or demands for a set percentage is likely, should the economies fail to deliver. of the market. But the Clinton Administration's obsession with the trade deficit has led it to continue making Japan a scapegoat Nafta's impact for America's economic malaise. As a result of the passage of Nafta, trade barriers between Russia, fearful of losing face in the region, refuses to com-the U.S. and Mexico will fall. U.S. exports are also likely to pose its differences with Japan over the islands it seized at theincrease, and more exports will mean more jobs. According end of World War II. But there is some reason to believe thatto one study, from a base year of 1990, the agreement should, President Boris Yeltsin will try to do so, if he can without ag-over five years, "create approximately 320,000 new jobs in gravating nationalist critics. China, in turn, is wary of Russia'sthe U.S. and displace about 150,000 workers, resulting in turmoil as Russia tries to convert to a market-driven economy. about 170,000 net new jobs." The long-term goal, to improve the Mexican economy so that its workers begin to...earn wages Rx for Pax Pacifica comparable with those of American and Canadian workers, Although North Korea is not a major power, it nonethelesswhich in turn should slow illegal emigration and offer an poses the most immediate threat to Asian security by refusing even greater market for Canadian and U.S. goods, can only to halt its nuclear program. This threatens not only South Koreatake place over time. It is a long-term goal, however, and and the other nations of the region, but it could also spark Japa-perhaps the strongest argument made in favor of Nafta was nese rearmament, which would in itself upset the balance ofthe fact that a good deal of manufacturing from the north had power dramatically. already moved south, and in a global economy there was 88 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 91 o P I C NEW WORLD DISORDER? 8 probably no effective way to prevent it. Nafta is also likely to to set up common rules for antidumping, subsidies, antitrust lock in Mexico's market reforms, its new openness to foreignmechanisms and intellectual property. investment and foreign imports. Finally, insofar as Nafta may Also needed is a more powerful coordination of international lead to a more prosperous, stable, and ultimately more demo-monetary policies. The Bretton Woods institutions were set up cratic, Mexico, the overall goals of North American securitywhen the dollar was world currency. But now America no will be fulfilled, and the way will be open to extend the free-longer sets the pace of the world economy, which is subject to trading zone throughout the hemisphere. sudden shifts that threaten international economic stabilty. The IMF alone is clearly inadequate to meet needs of a global Trading blocs and trade wars economy. Perhaps the greatest danger the world faces is not small wars and unsolvable conflicts, but rather its division into three great In search of new directions trading blocs: Europe, East Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Despite the EC's problems in establishing its own central Even before the unification of Germany, the EC's GNP was bank, we should nonetheless proceed to investigate the feasibil- two-and-one-half times larger than Japan's. A new Europeanity of a world central bank to help stabilize currency shifts and bloc would account for one fourth of the world product. Should thus help promote free trade. To deal with a global recession, Europe close its gates, the risks to the U.S. are huge, for for example, no international agency is now capable of strategic America sells one fourth of its products to Europe and has re- planning and rapid action, and individual nation-states may not cently enjoyed a trade surplus with the EC. In a well-be able to take action on a grand scale. In this respect, the rela- intentioned effort to stabilize Eastern Europe, as political ana- tionship between nation-states and the global economy is com- lyst Walter Russell Mead has pointed out, "Western Europe, led parable to that between firms and the nation-state. by Germany, could establish something like Napoleon's pro- There may be no single blueprint for the future, but the in- jected continental system. Eastern Europe and North Africaability of President Clinton and his secretary of state to articu- would supply the raw materials, certain agricultural products, late a comprehensible hierarchy of U.S. interests may well lead and low-wage industrial labor. Western Europe would provideto a directionless America, increasingly embittered as U.S. pur- capital and host the high-value-added and high-tech indus- pose and power erode. There was a time, let us not forget, when tries.... A Europe of this kind would inevitably put most of its the international order had to be rebuilt. Dean Acheson and capital into its own backyard, and it would close its markets toGeneral George Marshall, John Maynard Keynes, Ernest Bevin, competitors from the rest of the world. It would produce VCRsLester Pearson, Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman, and later in Poland, not China; it would buy its wheat from Ukraine,Konrad Adenauer, were determined to remake the system. They rather than the Dakotas." were all, in Acheson's memorable phrase, present at the cre- As for Japan, by the year 2000, Japan, with less than half theation. It would be a tragedy of world proportions if a new gen- population of the U.S., will likely have a GNP only 15%eration were found to be present at the destruction. smaller. In this respect, danger would result from an American determination to shut outas much as possibleJapanese goods from a North American market. New challenges, new institutions To avoid trade wars and ensure global prosperity, new international institutions and arrangements are needed to replace or aug- ment the existing international economic and financial system that was set up after World War II at Bretton Woods under U.S. leadership. For example, we might consider re- viving the idea of an international trade or- c...214Z,)A.111(C*0,1t,cra 03) O..... ganizationsuggested originally by Keynes. C It would do more than focus on lower tariffs as the U.S. preferred instrument, the 1141111hIel4. General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), does. GATT never has been able to resolve questions of how to harmonize The PeaceTrain differences among economic policies or provide rules of the road. A new trade organization would be similar to America's inter- WE $E 14010/NG 0 iicnOrnj 'DIE NEW REPteu4. R4E HIGH (ACURA state commerce commission. It would work TOLES 0 THE BUFFALO NEWS. REPRINIID WITH PERMISSION OF UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE. All RIGHTS RESERVED. GREAT DECISIONS 1994 92 89 8 NEW WORLD DISORDER? 3. If Europe does not make much pro-6. Do you believe the Clinton Adminis- D1 SSEN gress for the rest of the century towardtration should campaign for human rights unification, how would this phenomenonin China? How is this likely to affect QUESTEONS affect America's role in Europe? America's relationship with this great power? 4. Do you think a unilateral reduction in 1. Should the U.S. urge NATO to incor-our naval and military presence in East7. If Japan loses confidence in the U.S. porate Hungary, Poland and the CzechAsia and the Western Pacific will seri-as the guarantor of its security, what are Republic? How wouldthisaffectously inhibit our role as the holder of the likely to be the consequences for Japa- NATO's mission? What do you thinkbalance of power in that region? nese policy? Moscow's reaction would be? 5. Secretary of State Warren Christopher8. The bipolar world of the cold war, 2. Do you think that the emergence ofsaid in 1993 that "Western Europe is nowhen the U.S. and the Soviet Union were Germany as the dominant power in Eu-longer the dominant area of the world"the only two superpowers, was a rela- rope is likely to be a threat to peace?and that Washington has to get over itstively stable one. Does it seem in retro- How will that affect America's role inEurocentric view of diplomacy. Do you spect a more desirable world than the one Europe? agree? in which we are now living?

foreign policy analyst sets forth his own worldview and America's future global role.

Pfaff, William, The Wrath of Nations. New York, Simon and Schuster, 1993. 256 pp. $22.00. A leading columnist looks at the turmoil in post-cold-war Europe and the Middle East and Blumenthal, Sidney, "Why Are We in Somalia?" The New sees the waning of liberal internationalism. Yorker, October 25, 1993, pp. 48-60. A leading political columnist gives his view of the domestic American sources of U.S. Rizopoulos, Nicholas X., "A Third Balkan War?" World involvement in Somalia. Policy Journal, Summer 1993, pp. 1-6. The director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations pulls no punches in criticiz- Carr, Caleb, "The Consequences of Somalia." World Policy ing the Clinton Administration zigzags in its policy toward the Journal, Fall 1993, pp. 1-4. An uncompromising examination Yugoslav war. by a military historian of America's alternatives in the Somali conflict. Tsurumi, Yoshi, "A Japanese-American Grand Bargain." World Policy Journal, Fall 1993, pp. 45-53. Tsurumi is a pro- Chace, James, The Consequences of the Peace: The New In- ternationalism and American Foreign Policy. New York, fessor of international business who believes that the U.S. mis- represents its economic difficulties with Japan. Oxford University Press, 1993. 240 pp. $10.95 (paper). This short book provides a sweeping overview of U.S. national interests after the cold war.

Clinton, Bill, "Confronting the Challenges of a Broader World." U.S. Department of State Dispatch, September 27, 1993, pp. 649-53. President's address to the UN General Assembly.

Danner, Mark, "Aristide." The New York Review of Books, November 4 and 18, and December 2, 1993. Indispensable background articles on the roots of America's Haitian imbro- glio, and an acute study of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, and Schott, Jeffrey J., "Prescription for Growth." Foreign Policy, Winter 1993-94, pp. 104-14. A first- rate analysis of the advantages of Nafta for the U.S.

Mead, Walter Russell, "An American Grand Strategy." World Policy Journal, Spring 1993, pp. 9-37. A rather unorthodox 90 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 93 OWVCD @g4 Gno OUT Dg@lig,-(D

OPINIONB LLOTSVote for the foreign policy of your choice! You can make your opinions count by filling in a ballot after you read and discuss each topic. If you prefer to wait until you have finished discussing all eight topics, you can use the ballot envelope that is bound into this book to mail your ballots to the Foreign Policy Association. Either way, please send your ballots no later than the June 30th cutoff date in order to have your opinions included in the final National Opinion Ballot Report. The Ballot Report will be prepared by FPA with the advice of a public opinion analyst and will be presented to the White House, the Departments of State and Defense, and members of Congress, as well as the nation's media.

1994 ACTIVITY BOOK...The 1994 edition of the Great Decisions Activity Book has been prepared by Amon A. Diggs. Mr. Diggs has been a high school social studies teacher for 30 years. A graduate of the University of Illinois with an MS degree from Queens College (CUNY), he received the University of Chicago's Outstanding Teacher Award in 1990. Designed to be used with the 1994 edition of the GREAT DECISIONS briefing book, the Activity Book provides learning objectives, teaching strategies, decisionmaking exercises, role-playing activities and handouts that can be reproduced for classroom use. (40 pp., $11.95 plus $3.00 for postage and handling, prepaid.)

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94 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 91 GENERAL RESOURCES

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH,485 Fifth Ave., New York, N.Y. 10017- 6104; (212) 972-8400.The leading U.S.-based international Additional resource lists can be found at human-rights organization has five regional divisions: Africa the end of each topic, with questions for Watch, Americas Watch, Asia Watch, Helsinki Watch and discussion and suggested readings. Middle East Watchplus the Fund for Free Expression. Publishes reports by the various divisions, a catalog and newsletters. AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH (AEI), 1150 17th St., NW, Washington, D.C. 20036; (202) 862-5800. NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR THE SOCIAL STUDIES,3501 Newark St., A private research organization dedicated to "open and com-NW, Washington, D.C. 20016-3167; (202) 966-7840.NCSS petitive private enterprise" and "limited and public-spirited is a service organization that provides leadership in social stud- government." Publications: bimonthly journal, The Americanies education; its more than 25,000 members include institu- Enterprise, and books. tions and elementary, secondary and college teachers.

AMERICAN FRIENDS SERVICE COMMITTEE,1501 Cherry St., Phila- NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY,1101 15th St., N.W., delphia, Pa. 19102; (215) 241-7000.Founded in 1917, AFSC Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20005; (202) 293-9072.Private, carries out development and education programs worldwide. nonprofit organization created to strengthen democratic institu- Publications: bulletins, press releases, pamphlets and books tions around the world through nongovernmental efforts. Quar- available on most international issues. terly Journal of Democracy covers democratic movements and newly established democracies around the world. AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL U.S.A.,322 Eighth Ave., New York, N.Y. 10001; (212) 807-8400.Winner of the Nobel Peace OVERSEAS DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (ODC),1875 Connecticut Ave., Prize, AI works for the release of prisoners of conscience, fairNW, Suite 1012, Washington, D.C. 20009; (202) 234-8701. and prompt trials for political prisoners and the end of torture Seeks to increase understanding of development issues and and executions. Publications include reports on the status of hu-problems of developing countries. Publications include Policy man rights around the globe. For classroom materials, callFocus series. National Student Campaign (202) 775-5161. SPICE, STANFORD UNIVERSITY PROGRAM ON INTERNATIONAL AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION,Foreign Policy Studies Program, CROSS-CULTURAL EDUCATION,Littlefield Center, Room 14, 300 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20036-2188;Lasuen St., Stanford University, Stanford, Calif. 94305-5013; (202) 797-6000.Nonprofit research organization publishes (415) 723-1114.SPICE seeks to improve international and books, papers and the quarterly Brookings Review to educatecross-cultural education, K-12. Offers curriculum, staff devel- the public on policy issues. opment programs and materials.

CENTER FOR TEACHING INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,University of U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE,Bureau of Public Affairs, Public In- Denver, 2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, Colo. 80208-0268; (303)formation Service, Washington, D.C. 20520; (202) 647-6575. 871-3106.CTIR offers graduate courses, conducts teacher in- The Department of State can supply information on almost service workshops, publishes curriculum materials, and offersany issue or geographical area. Publications include weekly consultation services. For catalogue of publications, call: (303) U.S. Department of State Dispatch. 871-2164. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE,1550 M St., NW, 7th Floor, CHOICES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY EDUCATION PROJECT,Center forWashington, D.C. 20005-1708; (202) 429-3834.An inde- Foreign Policy Development, Brown University, Box 1948,pendent government organization created by Congress to pro- Providence, R.I. 02912; (401) 863-3155.The project providesmote research, education and training on international peace curricula, including reproducible mini-units, for high schooland conflict management, the institute has a variety of educa- and college teachers on foreign policy issues; the center offers tional materials available free of charge, including a bimonthly workshops, institutes and in-service programs for high schoolnewsletter. For list, contact Office of Public Affairs and teachers. Information.

EDUCATORS FOR SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY,23 Garden St., Cam- WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT EDUCATION PROGRAM,1818 H St., bridge, Mass. 02138; (617) 492-1764. A national educational NW, Room T-8082, Washington, D.C. 20433; (202) 473-1945. organization offering programs and curricula to help young The program offers books, maps, poster kits and video cas- people become involved in the global society. Publishes text-settes designed for use in classes in social studies, economics, books and handbooks designed for teachers and students em- global issues, international studies and world history. phasizing critical thinking, multiple perspectives, nonviolent conflict resolution, decisionmaking and social responsibility. WORLD WITHOUT WAR COUNCIL,1730 Martin Luther King Jr. Way, Berkeley, Calif. 94709; (510) 845-1992.Promotes non- FREEDOM HOUSE,120 Wall St., New York, N.Y. 10005; (212)violent methods of conflict resolution by supporting peace- 514-8040.A clearinghouse and research document centeroriented institutions and conceiving programs and intellectual devoted to the cause of freedom. Contact Freedom House forexchange. List of publications for students and teachers is information about publications. available.

92 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 95 OPINIONBALLOT 1993 RESULTS°

TOPIC 1: U.S. IN A NEW WORLD TOPIC 3: GERMANY'S ROLE Issue A. The principal international role of the U.S. should be to: Issue A. Concerning the U.S. military commitment to NATO, the Take the lead in solving international problems. 7% U.S. should: Maintain its commitment to NATO and its Work through organizations such as the present force level in Europe. 6% UN to solve global problems. 79% Maintain its commitment to NATO but Participate in solving international problems reduce its force level in Europe. 68% only when they affect Americans directly. 7% Maintain its commitment to NATO but remove U.S. forces stationed in Europe. 17% Issue B. The domestic policy priority of the U.S. should be to: Withdraw from NATO and remove (readers were asked to rank the following in order of importance) U.S. forces stationed in Europe. 3% Hone its competitive edge in the global economy. 12% Issue B. Concerning economic assistance to Eastern Europe, Rus- Address social problems (education, health, crime). 31% sia and the other former Soviet states, the U.S. should: Stimulate the economy. 25% Increase its share of the burden because Reduce the budget deficit. 29% otherwise Germany and others will gain access to their resources and potentially Maintain its military strength. 3% lucrative markets and the U.S. will lose out. 20% Maintain present levels of assistance and let TOPIC 2: UNITED NATIONS Germany and others with more direct geographic and cultural ties assume most of the burden. 53% Issue A. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Decrease the current level of economic assistance. 9%

AGREE WITH DISAGREE WITH Issue C. Concerning European integration, to the extent that the AGREE RESERVATIONS DISAGREE RESERVATIONS U.S. has any influence in the matter it should: The UN should be given Support European integration. 53% power by the U.S. and Discourage European integration. other member states to 2% be the world policeman. 27% 51% 11% 8% Neither support nor discourage European integration. The UN should have 33% intervened more strongly, and sooner, in the former .1111 Yugoslavia. 40% 34% 16% 7% TOPIC 4: CHINA The UN should have Issue A. With regard to overall policy toward China, the U.S. intervened more strongly, should: and sooner, in Somalia. 43% 32% 14% 8% Condition future relations on China's ending human-rights abuses, eliminating trade barriers The U.S. should hold troops and halting sales of nuclear technology. in readiness for use by the 16% UN as peacekeepers. 42% 37% 10% 8% Follow a course of "constructive engagement": continue negotiating with the government while The U.S. should keep keeping lines open to the dissidents. 47% troops trained and in Maintain correct relations with the government readiness for use by the to secure U.S. interests: leave China's future UN in peace-enforcement. 42% 36% 9% 6% (including the question of economic and political The U.S. should immediately liberalization) to the Chinese. 29% pay what it owes the UN for Issue B. Concerning trade with China, the U.S. should: peacekeeping and the regular budget. 42% 33% 12% 5% Renew China's most-favored-nation status unconditionally. 19% If a government is sus- Renew China's most-favored-nation status pected of building but restrict it to exports produced by private nuclear, chemical or germ- enterprise, not exports of state-owned industries. 27% warfare weapons, and refuses to permit surprise Make renewal of China's most-favored-nation inspection of the factories, status conditional on Chinese concessions in the UN should impose nontrade areas, for example human rights. 33% sanctions and, if necessary, Refuse China most-favored-nation status. 3% take military action. 35% 46% 8% 4% Issue C. How serious are the following obstacles to improved U.S. If human rights are being relations with China? (Percent answering "very serious") seriously violated any- China's sale of nuclear and missile technology where, resulting in injury or and conventional weapons 63% death to large numbers of people, the UN should inter- Trade issues, including Chinese "dumping" and vene whether or not the theft of technology 30% government asks for help. 33% 38% 12% 6% Ideological differences 9% Human-rights abuses by China 28% * Results of 35,800 ballots received as of June 30, 1993, and U.S. military sales to Taiwan 13% tabulated by Calculogic Corporation of New York City. Differences over Hong Kong's future 12% 96 GREAT DECISIONSI 994 93 OPINION BALLOT 1993 RESULTS

TOPIC 5: TRADE TOPIC 7: INDIA AND PAKISTAN Issue A. With regard to the North American free-trade agreementIssue A. With regard to the development and spread of nuclear with Mexico, the U.S. should: weapons by India and Pakistan, the U.S. should: YES NO Increase economic pressure on India and Pakistan Support the agreement unconditionally. 17% 64% and encourage other aid donors to withhold aid. 10% Condition support on Mexico's Instead of relying on economic leverage, which enforcement of environmental laws. 77% 10% has not been effective, promote a regional nuclear- Condition support on Mexico's free zone, which would include India and Pakistan. 38% protection of human rights. 59% 20% Acknowledge that it is too late to achieve a Condition support on Mexico's nuclear freeze and work to rebuild U.S. influence holding of free, fair elections. 40% 35% in Pakistan and improve relations with India. 45% Break off negotiations. 5% 64% Issue B. How would you rank U.S. policy interests in South Asia? Issue B. What trade policy is in the best interest of the U.S.? (percentages of first choices) AGREE DISAGREE Restrain nuclear proliferation. 42% Redouble efforts to bring multilateral 3% negotiations to a successful conclusion and Promote self-determination for Kashmir. proceed cautiously on regional trade agreements.67% 8% Protect human rights. 10% Give priority to developing a Western Support democratic leaders and policies. 23% Hemisphere free-trade association. 47% 21% Encourage privatization, trade and investment. 15% Insist that trading partners "play by the rules," penalizing those that do not, and negotiate bilateral 64% 11% Issue C. If forced to choose between them, which country should agreements if necessary to open foreign markets. the U.S. favor? Adopt a policy of managed trade, promoting important high-technology industries to make India 50% the U.S. more competitive. 55% 16% Pakistan 9%

TOPIC 6: RUSSIA & CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS TOPIC 8: CHILDREN AT RISK Issue A. In its policy toward Russia, the U.S. should: Issue A. To improve the lives of children throughout the world, the AGREE WITH DISAGREE WITH U.S. should: AGREE RESERVATIONS DISAGREE RESERVATIONS AGREE WITH DISAGREE WITH Support Russia as the AGREE RESERVATIONS DISAGREE RESERVATIONS "first among equals" of Ratify the UN Convention the successor-states of the on the Rights of the Child. 66% 22% 4% 4% former Soviet Union. 31% 47% 11% 4% Shift international aid prior- Avoid placing primary ities to increase funding for emphasis on relations with child survival and basic needs.53% 32% 7% 3% Russia at the expense of the 29% 38% 19% 5% Shift bilateral aid priorities in other successor-states. order to direct more aid to Pay attention to other U.S. the neediest countries. 33% 41% 12% 4% concerns now that the cold war is over and let Russia Resume funding for the take care of itself. 8% 17% 24% 37% UN Population Fund. 61% 21% 7% 4% Restructure the U.S. Agency Issue B. In its policy toward the Central Asian republics, the U.S. for International Development should: so that its focus is on sustain- AGREE WI DISAGREE WITH able development and transfer AGREE RESERVATS DISAGREE RESERVATIONS security assistance programs Cultivate relations by to the State Department. 44% 29% 7% 5% extending economic aid and technical assis- Issue B. To improve the lives of children in this country, the U.S. tance to alleviate poverty. 37% 38% 10% 3% should: Recognize that its own YES NO influence is limited and Apply the lessons learned from the international continue to provide child survival program, which emphasized primarily technology, preventive health care and mass health training and skills in education campaigns. 86% 2% agriculture and irrigation. 52% 29% 6% 2% Increase investments in children's health and Rely on friends, such education programs, including Head Start as Turkey, that have and WIC. 82% 6% cultural and geographic Encourage a partnership between government ties to the region, to 6% promote U.S. interests. 27% 36% 15% 9% and the private sector to improve children's lives. 79% Make a long-term commit- Emphasize the role of the family and reduce ment to assisting Central the role of government. 57% 21% Asia's development through dialogue with its governments Note: Percentages reported above may not add up to 100 because and assistance and exchange some participants did not mark particular ballots or volunteered programs. 42% 33% 9% 3% other responses not tabulated here. 94 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 97 Index to GREATECOSIONS Topics (1983-93)

AFRICA '86European Community & the U.S.: Friction Among Friends '92Africa South of the Sahara: Fresh Winds of Democracy? '85Future of the Atlantic Alliance: Unity in Diversity? '89Horn of Africa: Empty Cornucopia? '83West Germany & the U.S.: What's Wrong With the '87South Africa: Apartheid Under Siege Alliance? '84South Africa: Can U.S. Policies Influence Change? DEFENSE AND SECURITY '83Africa South of the Sahara: Poverty, Hunger & Refugees '90Third World Arms Bazaar: Disaster for Sale? ASIA '89Arms Agreements: Too Little Too Late, or Too Much Too '93China: New Reforms, Old Politics? Soon? '93India & Pakistan: Collision or Compromise? '88Western Europe: Between the Superpowers '91Japanese-U.S. Trade: Harmony or Discord? '87Defense & the Federal Deficit: U.S. Needs, Soviet '90Vietnam, Cambodia and the U.S.: Return Engagement? Challenges '89China: Redefining the Revolution '86`Star Wars' & the Geneva Talks: What Future for Arms '88South Korea: The Future of Democracy Control? '87Pacific Basin: Alliances, Trade & Bases '85U.S. Intelligence: The Role of Undercover Operations '87Pakistan & Afghanistan: Storm Over Southwest Asia '84U.S. Security & World Peace: Allies, Arms & Diplomacy '85The Philippines: What Future for Democracy? '83Nuclear Proliferation: Who's Next to Get the Bomb? '84China & the U.S.: Five Years After Normalization ECONOMIC ISSUES '83Southeast Asia: Asean & Its Communist Neighbors '93Trade & the Global Economy: Projecting U.S. Interests FORMER SOVIET UNION AND EASTERN EUROPE '90The U.S., Europe and Japan: Global Economy in Transition? '93Russia & the Central Asian Republics: After Independence, '89Farmers, Food & the Global Supermarket New Directions? '88U.S. Trade & Global Markets: Risks & Opportunities '92Breakup of the Soviet Union: U.S. Dilemmas '87Foreign Investment in the U.S.: Selling of America? '91Nationalism's Revival: The Soviet Republics and Eastern '86Third World Development: Old Problems, New Strategies? Europe '85Budget Deficit, Trade & the Dollar: Economics of Foreign '90U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe: End of an Era? Policy '88The Soviet Union: Gorbachev's Reforms '84International Debt Crisis: Borrowers, Banks & the IMF '85Soviet Leadership in Transition: What Impact on '83Trade & Unemployment: Global Bread-and-Butter Issues Superpower Relations? ENVIRONMENT '84The Soviet Union: Hard Choices for Moscow & Washington '92Planet Earth: Dying Species, Disappearing Habitats '83U.S.-Soviet Relations: The Arms Race & Coexistence '91Women, Population & the Environment: The Relationships, the Challenges LATIN AMERICA '90Global Warming & the Environment: Forecast Disaster? '92Latin America's New Course: Bridge to Closer U.S. Ties? '88The Global Environment: Reassessing the Threat '91Cuba: What Future for Castro and Communism? U.S. FOREIGN POLICY '90Nicaragua and El Salvador: War or Peace in Central America? '93U.S. in a New World: What Goals? What Priorities? '89Latin American Debt: Living on Borrowed Time? '92U.S. Agenda for the '90s: Domestic Needs, Global Priorities '88Mexico & the U.S.: Ambivalent Allies '91Rethinking Foreign Aid: What Kind? How Much? For '86Democracy in Latin America: Focus on Argentina & Brazil Whom? '85Revolutionary Cuba: Toward Accommodation or Conflict? '89Ethics in International Relations: Power & Morality '84Central America, Mexico & the U.S.: Discord Among '88U.S. Foreign Policy: Projecting U.S. Influence Neighbors '87Constitution & Foreign Policy: Role of Law in International '83Inter-American Security: Lessons from the South Atlantic Relations '86How Foreign Policy Is Made: The Case of Central America MIDDLE EAST '85U.S. Intelligence: The Role of Undercover Operations '92Middle East After Desert Storm: As the Dust Settles '91The Middle East: New Frictions, New Alignments OTHER CRITICAL ISSUES '90Palestinian Question: Is There a Solution? '93UN: What Role in the New World? '89The Persian Gulf: Reassessing the U.S. Role '93Children at Risk: Abroad and at Home '88U.S. & the Middle East: Dangerous Drift? '92The Refugee Crisis: How Should the U.S. Respond? '87Egypt & the U.S.: Uneasy Relations '92The AIDS Pandemic: Global Scourge, U.S. Challenge '86Israel & the U.S.: Friendship & Discord '91Media's Role in Shaping Foreign Policy '85Iran-Iraq War: What Role for the U.S. in Persian Gulf? '90United Nations: New Life for an Aging Institution '84Saudi Arabia & Jordan: Kingdoms at the Crossroads? '89International Drug Traffic: An Unwinnable War? '83Lebanon: Shattered State in the Middle East '87Dealing With Revolution: Iran, Nicaragua & the Philippines '86International Terrorism: In Search of a Response WESTERN EUROPE '86Religion in World Politics: Why the Resurgence? '93Germany's Role: in Europe? in the Atlantic Alliance? '85Population Growth: Critical North-South Issue? '91The New Europe: What Role for the U.S.? '84International Drug Traffic: Can It Be Stopped? GREAT DECISIONS 1994 98 95 GREAT DECISIONS SUPPORTERS

FPA wishes to thank the following GreatDecisions participants who generously supported the program.

Robert W. Allen Jack Garrity Barbara Durnell McGarry Mr. & Mrs. Lyle Anderson M. Helen Gillis Elizabeth R. Melvin Marie Arbour Alvin Goldberg Carolyn R. Moomaw Mrs. Henry F. Argento Rose Gover Larry P. Murphy Mrs. Bert G. Arnold David M. Gray Daniel Newberry M. E. Arnold Richard H. Greene Virginia Newhall Mrs. Allen A. Atwood, Jr. Patricia Hagsten Richard 0. Niehoff Milton S. Axelrad Robert T. Handy Adele K. O'Shaughnessy Richard C. Baker John G. Harrison Mary Ellen Orr Roy Balleste Joan P. Heller Hon. & Mrs. David H. Popper J.E. Barry John Henwood Mary Jo Reece James I. Bauer Bruce Heyman Mr. & Mrs. Ullman Rosenfield Eric W. Bey Joan Huguenard Charles Schisler C. F. Blanchard Wilma H. Husband Hon. Robert C. Seamans, Jr. Irwin S. Boss Mrs. Gerald A. Jabaley Deborah Seliski Robert M. Brandin Rosaline Jaffe Patricia Shannahan Joyce H. Browning Dr. & Mrs. H. Ram Jayaraman William J. Sheehan Robert 0. Burns A. F. Johnston Jerome Sill Patrick J. Callahan, Jr. John Wesley Jones Dr. Bernard I. Siman Paul B. Chu William S. Jones Dr. Jaime Simkovitz Rt. Rev. William H. Clark Mr. & Mrs. Jack Kaplan Elaine Smith Robert L. Clifford Leah R. Karpen Marie G. Starr Garth D. Clizbe Velda W. Kattner Mr. & Mrs. John D. States Jon D. Collins Mr. & Mrs. L.H. Kellogg Frank W. Steere Uni Cordoba Marjorie Ketcham Diana Turet Doris Cunningham Phillip Z. Kirpich Dr. J. Roy Valencourt Jeannine de Pujo E. N. Klee Douglas A. Van Dorpe Dawn R. Donnellan Steven Kiurfeld Kathleen P. Wagoner Frederick G. Dosher Kenneth R. Knoblock Emma W. Walbridge Mrs. Edward D. Downing Elizabeth Lawlor Brian V. Walsh D. Valentine Ericson Robert C. Leff Betty Weir Fred Ellin Penny Leich Cynthia Weir Mr. & Mrs. Glenn Elliott Dr. Marguerite L. Leng Julie A. Weiss John C. Erskine Karen Lewis Daphne M. White M.H.K. Flentge Bryon Scott Line Mary W. Wickware Heber M. Garcia Migliore Barbara F. Maniscalco Don C. Ytzen

96 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 99 FPA publications

...increase public understanding and Headline Series Guide to Careers in World discourse on current international Affairs / HEADLINESERIES "George Grayson's issues. FPA publications are an THE NORTH manuscript on integral part of the Foreign Policy This special --Tit I H1)1: Di IA ON_ AMERICAN NAFTA is excel- FPA publication Association's commitment to public FRII TDE GUIDE TO lent. The manu- is a brand-new, CARIEERS IN education and participation in the script captures the expanded and foreign policy process. Prepared by main issues for updated edition FPA and foreign policy experts, they understanding of the bestseller WORLD are informative, provocative, bal- recent develop- published in A FAIRS ments in Mexico 1987. This 422 - anced and well-written. They make -,: IT.11..W.GRAMIN and those surround- page resource complex world issues understandable , to students and the general reader and ing NAFTA, both includes 0 there and in the United States." chapters on by the Editors of the are used in schools, colleges and Foreign Policy Association universities, and by the public-at- Sidney Weintraub international Dean Rusk Professor, Lyndon B. business, large. Johnson School of Public Affairs, banking and finance, international law, University of Texas, Austin translation and interpretation, journalism and consulting, nonprofit organizations, GREAT DECISIONS "I am writing to HEADLINE SERIES the U.S. government and the United POUTICAL 171X3 congratulate you on IN Mt APAR VASPIR Nations and other international organiza- " .... These discussions are quite spirited the outstanding tions, as well as job-hunting strategies, and I am sure you would appreciate the publication in your teaching abroad, and internships and varied opinions of the group. We, in turn, Headline Series graduate programs in international affairs. thank you for the excellent articles that ' Political Tides in stimulate our intellect and increase our the Arab World.'... "I have used the Guide to Careers in understanding of the important issues The...students... World Affairs in my International Careers facing our country." unanimously classes at San Francisco State for several Discussion group'participant declared it the best years. It is the best. I...am recommending it Boca Raton, Florida book they had read to all who wish to consider international during the entire semester.... In short, I careers." 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OWE analysis of the 1310011 Oartaon History of Eli 14111111.fte ThIMMIte "A few deft GREAT DECISIONS... 00410. major trends in United States lines, a word or Special Supplements China since the Foreign Policy two, and a little Videotapes Tiananmen crisis in drawing by the 1989, and his right man or Videotapes of the eight-part TV series discussion of the woman can be based on the 1994, 1993, 1992 and 1991 implications of worth more than GREAT DECISIONStopics are available for these trends for a thousand purchase on 1/2" VHS tapes. Sold as sets 0,00 UM DARLA/LA.1., *LI llts American policy, words or a of four or eight half-hour programs for ,6021 yea.* MU.. WY..Ma are comprehensive, aftwor.no...... ma v.v. ...O. thousand pages each year. 37CIE WW1 anis illuminating and balanced.... 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L I 1 91 8 F r P O C Y ASSOCIATION 1 1994 Edition

ti valet inugo.lavia L., Mr % Democratic South Africa `Ecocide,'" &mkt legacy 4 U.-Pacific trade De ense priojkities qh .,- r Ames tirri;a,::Brazil, Chile 4Ifig% "Africa'sfrica's I \ilf:ew world. diso e * * * HOW TO GET MORE OUT OF GREAT DECISIONS * * *

OPINION BALLOTS...Vote for the foreign policy of your choice! You can make your opinions count by filling in a ballot after you read and discuss each topic. If you prefer to wait until you have finished discussing all eight topics, you can use the ballot envelope that is bound into this book to mail your ballots to the Foreign Policy Association. Either way, please send your ballots no later than the June 30th cutoff date in order to have your opinions included in the final National Opinion Ballot Report. The Ballot Report will be prepared by FPA with the advice of a public opinion analyst and will be presented to the White House, the Departments of State and Defense, and members of Congress, as well as the nation's media.

1994 ACTIVITY BOOK...The1994 edition of the Great Decisions Activity Book has been prepared by Amon A. Diggs. Mr. Diggs has been a high school social studies teacher for 30 years. A graduate of the University of Illinois with an MS degree from Queens College (CUNY), he received the University of Chicago's Outstanding Teacher Award in 1990. Designed to be used with the 1994 edition of the GREAT DECISIONS briefing book, the Activity Book provides learning objectives, teaching strategies, decisionmaking exercises, role-playing activities and handouts that can be reproduced for classroom use. (40 pp., $11.95 plus $3.00 for postage and handling, prepaid.)

TELEVISION...Aseries of eight half-hour television programs on the 1994 GREAT DECISIONS topics is being coproduced with the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. The series will present different points of view on each of the topics by recognized experts. Peter F. Krogh, dean of the School of Foreign Service, will anchor the series. The first program will be made available to public television stations, via satellite, in the beginning of February. Check your local PBS affiliate or the newspaper for the exact dates and times when the eight programs will be aired. Videotapes of the series will be available from FPA in March 1994. (Set of 8 programs-2 VHS cassettes $70.00 plus $5.00 postage and handling, prepaid. Also available, Tape I, with programs 1-4, and Tape 2, with programs 5-8, for $37.00 each plus $3.00 postage and handling, prepaid.) Single programs not available.

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Cover photo of Bosnian soldier: APAVide World Photos 103 GREAT DECISIONS 1994 ACTIVITY BOOK

Foreign Policy Association New York

104 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The Great Decisions 1994 Activity Book was developed by Amon A. Diggs, educational consultant. It was produced by James I. Bauer and Jim Mavrikios. The lessons were written by Amon A. Diggs. Special thanks to Nancy Hoepli, FPA's editor in chief. Her support, patience and outstanding professional competence are deeply appreciated.

All rights reserved. The materials in this volume may be reproduced for classroom use or other educational purposes at the instance and inspiration of the individual teacher or discussion leader. Other than for such use, no part of this volume may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any meansmechanical, electronic, or otherwisewithout written permission from the publisher.

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ISBN 0-87124-156-0

105 CONTENTS

Page Introduction 4

Activity Instructions Topic 1 Conflict in former Yugoslavia: quest for solutions 5 Topic 2 South Africa: forging a democratic union 9 Topic 3 Environmental crisis in former Soviet bloc: whose problem? who pays? 14 Topic 4 Trade with the Pacific Rim: pressure or cooperation? 18 Topic 5 Defense: redefining U.S. needs and priorities 22 Topic 6 Argentina, Brazil, Chile: democracy and market economics 25 Topic 7 Islam and politics: Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia 29 Topic 8 New world disorder? U.S. in search of a role 32

Handout Mastersheets Handout #1 Yugoslavia 35 Handout #2 South Africa 36 Handout #3 Environment 37 Handout #4 Pacific Rim 38 Handout #5 U.S. Defense 39 Handout #6 Argentina, Brazil and Chile 40

106 Introduction

As the Clinton Administration reaches the end of its of the "evil empire" are evident to everyone in the first year in office, political observers and citizens global village. What is not clear is where the vital across the U.S. are evaluating its performance. The interests of the U.S. may lie. record of the new President, like that of his predeces- Only when U.S. interests have been defined and sors, has been examined using a wide range of stan- made clear to all can resources be allocated and dards that reflects each reviewer's particular interests, policies formulated to ensure long-term survival and biases or political agenda. short-term security in the world. Political pundits and others are also examining the We believe that the 1994 edition of the Great record of the U.S. performance in the "new world Decisions briefing book will help Americans define order." It has been two years since the collapse of the and clarify vital U.S. interests in the world. The Soviet Union and the end of the cold-war bipolar turmoil in Yugoslavia and the environmental crisis in world. Unlike reviews of the presidency, evaluations the former Soviet bloc raise important questions about of the U.S. role in the world tend to be dispassionate. humanitarian aid and military intervention. The prob- Discrediting or undermining a president for partisan lematical economic and political developmentsalong purposes because of his conduct of foreign affairs is with rising hopes and expectationsin nations such as considered unpatriotic. Politics, it is said, ends at the Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa, along with water's edge. Since World War H, with some notable the sizeable economic challenges from the Pacific exceptions such as opposition to the Vietnam War or Rim, present difficult questions for the U.S. with U.S. policy toward China, support for the conduct of respect to trade, industrial development, economic U.S. foreign affairs has cut across party lines. Almost assistance, diplomacy and a host of other issues. The all Americans want the U.S. to survive and to do well dynamics of a worldwide, often misunderstood Is- in the world. They recognize that the U.S. is a military lamic revival offer opportunity for new insight and superpower, that it has serious economic problems, understanding of this important global phenomenon. that U.S. culture is popular worldwide and that U.S. In addition, exploring the needs, priorities and role of values and ideals concerning democracy and human the U.S. in the face of these and other foreign and rights are appealing and have evoked positive re- domestic issues in an organized, systematic way can sponses among many peoples. provide invaluable assistance in achieving an under- Creating grist for the current debate about U.S. standing and an appreciation of the decisions that must foreign policy are the disagreement and uncertainties be made in the coming years. about what role, responsibilities or commitments the There is nothing more important for the U.S. than to U.S. should assume in the post-cold-war world. The seek to understand where our vital interests lie and to bewildering and unsettling changes since the collapse ensure that they are protected.

Amon A. Diggs January 1994

4 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 1 0 TOPIC ACTIVITIES

Conflict in former Yugoslavia: quest for solutions

What common bonds united the Yugoslav federation? What ethnic, economic and political differences divided the country? What led to Yugoslavia's breakup? Could similar circumstances occur elsewhere? Should the U.S. intervene and try to end the conflict?

ARTICLE SUMMARY ACTIVITY ONE

THEcomplexity of the Yugoslav conflict has pro- Overview duced confusion in U.S. foreign policy. Ameri- If today the world faces problems that are not some- can response has swung between moral outrage at the how displayed in the tragedy unfolding in Yugoslavia, "humanitarian nightmare" of the war in Bosnia- it would be difficult to imagine what they would be. Herzegovina and a reluctance to become involved Yugoslavia is a sobering example of the fragility of the militarily because U.S. national interests were not at post-cold-war world and the relationships between stake. This ambivalence has inhibited the formulation political, military and economic development; ethnic, of policy and led to the failure of even humanitarian social and occupational groups; and religious and actions. national communities. Yugoslavia was created by the Great Powers after World War I. It was buffeted by The causes of the conflict, the author writes, have worldwide depression, a multinational military occu- more to do with the attempts to transform a socialist pation during World War II and a struggle to maintain country into a market-oriented democracy and to neutrality during the cold war that followed. incorporate it into Europe than they do with the ethnic and cultural makeup of former Yugoslavia. The war Now the Yugoslav federation has disintegrated. therefore has forced the U.S. and Europe to confront Issues such as democratization, federalism, economic their own disagreements and national competition reform and the role ofgovernment in society have been over economic and security relations in a post-cold- superseded by arms sales, bombardments, "ethnic war world. Western attempts to mediate, based on old cleansing," lawlessness and brigandry, military cam- thinking and instruments inappropriate to the conflict, paigns and political chicanery. The Western powers, have escalated the process of disintegration. Lacking including the U.S., have vacillated between concern are procedures and instruments to address conflicts and indifference, lacking the will, the means and the over the principle of self-determination and over bor- experience to halt the disintegration. ders within Europe, and national interests have pre- dominated over multilateral cooperation in Western The situation in Yugoslavia is complex. Federalists policies. In Yugoslavia, the forces for further disinte- in the former Yugoslavia had sought unsuccessfully to gration and war are stronger than those for an end to the strengthen democracy and liberalize the economy fighting or for its containment. through the national government in Belgrade. How- 108 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 5 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK

ever, Yugoslavia was in reality six nations in one believe that Americans are divided because ofracial or federal state, and opposition to federalism arose, based ethnic tensions or other similar matters. Ask them to on social class, ethnicity, personal wealth and eco- describe aspects of American society that they believe nomic or occupational status. Internally, the former cause people to be united and to compare them with Yugoslav republics are beset with overwhelming po- those aspects of American society that cause them to litical, military, economic and social problems. Move- be divided. List the main points in two separate col- ments espousing nationalism, political or military umns on the chalkboard labeled "U.S. Unity" and adventurism or the redress of old or new grievances "U.S. Division." Ask participants to predict, on the have proliferated. Clashes between factions that cham- basis of what they have presented, if they believe that pion various public and private interests have brought the U.S. could break up sometime in the near future. war, destruction and death. Various external groups, including northern Europeans, Germans, Austrians, Turn the discussion to the new Balkan states (for- Russians, Hungarians, Albanians, Islamists, Italians, merly Yugoslavia). Briefly describe the background Greeks and others, are involved in promoting their and history of the former Yugoslavia, including a own agendas, and for the most part they have wors- general description of its cultural legacies and tradi- ened the situation. tions. Point out the highlights of its 20th century history. What are the basic causes of violence and division Then divide the participants into four groups, ex- in this land? How have ethnic, religious, social and plaining to them that they are going to concentrate on economic differences contributed to the breakup of four states, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina this country? What consequences will the continued and Yugoslavia. Assign each group a state, distribute strife have? How do these events mirror issues and the "Handout on Yugoslavia," and ask them to work problems in other parts of the world? together within their respective group to produce an up-to-date assessment of the situation in the state they Objectives represent. Ask them to note the most serious conditions and problems at the present time, and ask them to Upon completion, participants will be able to: recommend short-term measures that would provide 1. Describe the forces that divide and create de- stability and alleviate the problems. Give them ap- struction in the former country of Yugoslavia. proximately 10 minutes to complete this work. 2. Explain what will be required to bring peace Call them back together and ask each of them to and stability to the region. summarize the situation in their designated state. Out- line their findings on the chalkboard. After all four states 3. Compare problems and issues that have af- have been described, ask them to compare conditions fected Yugoslavia with similar problems and and to assess which situations are the most difficult. Ask issues elsewhere. them to specify the problems in their state that are connected with problems or issues in the other states. Materials Get them to work together toward solving what they "Handout on Yugoslavia" (page 35), chalk, chalk- consider the major problems within each state by sug- board gesting comprehensive, cooperative efforts and solutions. Ask them to suggest what resources would have Time to be deployed to ensure a successful outcome. Approximately 45 minutes End the discussion by asking if they believe that what happened in Yugoslavia could happen elsewhere Procedure in the world. Turn their attention to the notes on the Begin the discussion by asking the participants to chalkboard about unity and division in the U.S. Ask describe the difficult problems the U.S. has faced them to compare Yugoslavia and the U.S., and ask recently as a result of the Rodney King and Reginald them if they believe the situations are similar. Ask Denny incidents in Los Angeles. Ask for the partici- them if what happened to Yugoslavia could happen to pants' reactions to Rodney King's widely quoted the U.S. in their lifetimes. Ask them to state briefly the query: "Can't we get along?" Ask whether or not they reasons they believe this could or could not happen. 6 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 109 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK

ACTIVITY TWO Objectives Overview Upon completion, participants will be able to: Anyone seeking evidence that the U.S. and its NATO 1. Discuss and compare the advantages and disad- allies have not developed a cogent plan to deal with vantages of U.S. efforts to intervene in the difficult international issues in the post-cold-war era crisis in Yugoslavia. need look no further than the continuing tragedy in 2. Assess and determine the role other nations and what was formerly Yugoslavia. Successor states to international organizations play in the conflict. that country have been ensnared in recurrent waves of hatred, violence and nihilism as the U.S. and its friends 3. Describe the possible effect U.S. action in have displayed timidity and inconsistency in their Yugoslavia would have on American leader- approach to the problem. Neutral during the cold war, ship in Europe. Yugoslavia was neither part of the Soviet bloc nor the free world but was courted by both. Today, few 4. Discuss the impact U.S. policy in Yugoslavia Europeans or Americans seem to be sure of how to will have on American domestic concerns and priorities. grapple with the situation there. Furthermore, the violence and ethnic strife in former Materials Yugoslavia threaten to spill over its borders. There Chalk, chalkboard have been serious delays and setbacks in democratic development and economic reforms in Hungary, Bul- Time garia, Romania and Albania. The increasing pressures generated by floods of refugees have heightened ten- Approximately 45 minutes sion and conflict both within and among neighboring countries. Economic damage has also been substan- Procedure tial. Added to the burdens of the refugee problem are Begin the discussion by briefly outlining the serious billions of dollars lost in regional trade, staggering problems that exist in the former Yugoslavia. Ask unemployment and the disruption of overland trans- participants what specific actions should be taken to portation between Europe and the Middle East. The bring immediate pressure to bear in order to resolve cost of building new routes around Yugoslavia will be these problems. List these actions on the chalkboard. considerable. Meanwhile, arms sales have helped re- Write the following on the chalkboard: "Europe juvenate military industries and slowed the post-cold- (NATO)," "U.S.," "United Nations." Ask participants war conversion to other economic pursuits. to develop a possible scenario in which one or more of The U.S. finds itself in a particular dilemma. Uncer- theseor any other national or international public or tain of its role, the world's only military superpower private entity, alone or in combinationcould suc- and the "winner" of the cold war promotes democracy, cessfully carry out the actions suggested by the group self-determination and human rights around the world. to end the crisis in Yugoslavia. Ask them why this has It is weighing the future of the NATO alliance and the not taken place before and what the U.S. could or economic and political development of Europe. The should do in order for this to occur. Describe the basic Clinton Administration has sought to cut back military principles that the U.S. stands for in the world spending in order to concentrate on domestic issues democracy, self-determination and human rights such as economic revitalization, health and educa- and ask them why they believe these principles would tional reform, racial divisiveness, urban decay, etc. or would not make it possible for the U.S. to play a significant role in trying to resolve the conflicts in What role should the U.S. play in the continuing Yugoslavia. Ask them to agree on which principles or crisis in Yugoslavia? What ideas or strategies should concepts they believe apply to U.S. involvement or the U.S. pursue for the area? How will U.S. action or noninvolvement in the struggle. inaction affect its relationship with Europe and the promotion of its foreign policy goals in the world? End the discussion by asking them what they be- How will the crisis in Yugoslavia affect U.S. domestic lieve will happen if something is not done about the priorities? situation in Yugoslavia and how they think this will ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 7 110 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK

affect the conduct of U.S. foreign policy in Europe and United Nations. Ask them what they believe will be throughout the world. the economic, political and military price the U.S. may have to pay in order to play a significant role. Ask them Ask the participants what dangers the U.S. may face if such expenditures arc worthwhile given the domes- if it decides to play a role in the tragedy and how U.S. tic needs and other U.S. international commitments actions would affect its relations with Europe and the and priorities.

GLOSSARY

Balkans. The Balkan Peninsula is a large, ethnically diverse nation-state. A country that consists of people who are con- region in southeastern Europe consisting of all or parts of scious of their common historical and cultural background and Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey and the former who wish to perpetuate it within the framework of a state. Yugoslavia. This volatile mix of peoples and cultures in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). region has produced numerous intrastate and border conflicts, Military alli- which continue up to the present time. ance created in 1949 linking the U.S., Canada, Belgium, Britain, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Den- federalism. A system of government in which sovereignty is mark, Iceland, Italy and Portugal. Greece, Spain, Turkey and divided between a central authority and component state au- Germany were subsequently admitted to the alliance. It was thorities. The central government most often handles the con- created to defend the North Atlantic allies against potential cerns of the people as a whole, including foreign affairs, Communist aggression. defense and commerce; the local entities retain other powers. Ottoman dynasty. An Islamic empire based in Istanbul that was Geneva Conventions. Series of treaties signed (1864-1949) in ruled by the Ottoman Turks from 1300 to 1922. At their height Geneva, Switzerland, that provide for the humane treatment of in the 16th and 17th centuries, the Ottomans ruled over an area combatants and civilians in wartime. stretching from Algeria to the Persian Gulf and from Hungary to Yemen. Great Powers. The victorious allies of World War IBritain, France, Italy and the U.S. Venetian dynasty. Rulers of this island-city came to dominate the Adriatic region in the 9th century as a leading sea Habsburg dynasty. The ruling house of Austria from 1282 to power. The zenith of the empire was reached in the 15th century when 1918. It controlled large parts of Europe during its reign. In it served as a link between Europe and Asia. It fell in 1797 to 1867 the Habsburg empire was reorganized into the Austro- Napoleon I who delivered Venice to Austrian rule. Hungarian Empire, which was dissolved at the end of World War I. Part of the former empire became Yugoslavia. Versailles. The site in France where the most important of the five peace treaties ending World War Ithe Treaty of market economy. An economic system that relies on free Versailleswas signed. The victorious Great Powers forced competition, profit incentives and the principle of supply and defeated Germany to admit war guilt and to accept limitations demand to determine which goods to produce, how to produce on its rearmament. Germany also had to pay war reparations them, and who will receive them once they have been produced. and give up certain territories. The League of Nations, the forerunner of the United Nations, was also established under this treaty.

8 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 111 South Africa: forgingademocratic union

What are the aftereffects of apartheid and what problems do they create for South Africa's leaders? Can a new multiracial government heal old wounds? What stakes does the U.S. have in South Africa's democratic transition?

ARTICLE SUMMARY ACTIVITY ONE SOUTH AFRICA has passed a point of no return. The Overview old system of apartheid is gone and the first all- A nation long regarded as a pariah state by the interna- inclusive elections will be held on April 27, 1994. tional community, South Africa is no longer shunned From its inception in 1948, advocates of apartheid but is being observed with amazement, excitement and strove systematically to separate the majority black apprehension as it moves through the last decade of the population from the minority white population. Inter- 20th century. For many years the government of this nal opposition to this system followed. The govern- multiracial society used tyranny to uphold race as the ment banned the African National Congress and jailed defining criterion for political, economic and social its leaders, including Nelson Mandela, but the opposi- well-being. It has now embarked upon a course that not tion to apartheid continued to grow and led to violent only has put an end to legal apartheid and invited full confrontations in the black townships. The outraged political participation by the nonwhite majority, but international community imposed economic sanctions, also seeks to eliminate the results of powerful traditions and foreign businesses divested themselves of their of racism, violence, tyranny and economic exploitation holdingsin.South Africa. In 1989 the situation came to that were inspired and sanctioned by the whites-only a head. A new president, F.W. de Klerk, announced South African government and that still have a crippling plans to dismantle gradually the apartheid system. effect on many aspects of South African life today. Mandela and de Klerk are currently members of a transitional government charged with finalizing a new The history of South Africa is replete with racial constitution with a bill of rights and addressing and ethnic unrest. In addition to struggles and conflict apartheid's legacya divided country, a stagnant over language and culture, there have been violent economy and a largely unemployed majority. The rivalries concerning land, cattle and mineral rights as U.S. has declared its commitment to helping South well as political and economic power. The victory of Africa make this transition. But what form should that the Nationalist party in 1948 enabled the Afrikaners to help take? What are the best policies? The decisions codify and expand previous forms of discrimination to made now may have profound effects on South Africa's all aspects of life in order to deny political and economic equality to blacks. Separated from the land, future.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 9 112 ionic ACTIVITY BOOK

restricted in movement, denied the right to protest or ask them to rank these problems from the most to the organize and subjected to divide-and-rule tactics en- least difficult to solve. forced by state tyranny, blacks organized and fought back through political activism and armed struggle. Divide the participants into the following groups: National party, Afrikaner Resistance Movement, Af- International condemnation, economic sanctions rican National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom and U.S.-led divestment, coupled with increasing state party. Ask them to develop specific positions and and individual violence and opposition from South specific proposals or demands concerning how the African whites and blacks, eventually brought an end group would like to deal with the problems listed on to apartheid. South Africa is now attempting to rebuild the chalkboard. Bring the groups together and, under and restructure its economy and society. Can South columns on the chalkboard labeled "National Party," Africa overcome its tumultuous past and become an "Afrikaner Resistance Movement," "African National open, democratic, multiracial nation? What immedi- Congress" and "Inkatha Freedom Party," have each ate steps can be taken to ensure a successful transition? present its ideas and demands. After the suggestions How can needs such as housing, education, job train- have been summarized on the chalkboard, get them to ing and health be managed in an uncertain period of compare and contrast the ideas and approaches to each transition for the black majority? What role, if any, problem. Ask them to try to work out a consensus or should the U.S. and the world play in these efforts? compromise on their goals. Ask them to determine whether or not the issues, ideas and difficulties sug- Objectives gested are primarily political, social or economic in Upon completion, participants will be able to: nature. Ask them what help, if any, they might seek from outsiders, such as the U.S., multilateral organiza- 1. Identify social, economic and political prob- tions or any other groups or individuals in order to help lems that have developed as a result of the resolve these issues. Get them to speculate as to policy of apartheid in South Africa. whether or not outside help might be forthcoming and 2. Explain the challenges South Africa faces as it the reasons why. attempts to reform and restructure the govern- Review their progress in attempting to resolve ment. differences over these issues. Ask participants what, if 3. Discuss and assess the role the international any, patterns or principles could be used as a general community should play in order to assist the statement of the difficulties connected with this pro- reform process. cess. Then turn back to their original ranking of the problems. Ask them whether they still hold to the same Materials order of difficulties and to explain the reasons why they may or may not have changed their minds. Chalkboard, chalk End the discussion by comparing what they have Time done with what must be done in South Africa. Ask Approximately 45 minutes them if they understand why so many people in and out of South Africa are deeply concerned about the chances for success and the reasons why they believe there will Procedures or will not be progress toward the creation of a demo- After briefly describing apartheid, ask the participants cratic, multiracial society in that country. to speculate on how successful they believe South Africans will be in reforming, restructuring and de- ACTIVITY TWO mocratizing their society. Ask them to list the most difficult problems they believe the country must over- Overview come in order to be successful. Make sure they explain The recent announcement that the 1993 Nobel Prize why they choose the problems they do. List all prob- for Peace has been jointly awarded to Prime Minister lems on the chalkboard and, after the list is completed, F.W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela of South Africa

10 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 113 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK

stands out as another remarkable moment for a world Objectives that has recently witnessed one incredible change after Upon completion, participants will be able to: another. South Africa is swiftly moving away from 1. Describe and compare the problems and chal- being a rigid, brutally segregated, whites-only society lenges South Africa, the U.S. and other multi- toward becoming an open, integrated, multiracial demo- racial, multiethnic societies face in attempting cratic society, and no one inside or outside this country is quite certain, despite ambitious goals and objec- to manage democratic reform. tives, what will happen. Violence, division, distrust, 2. Explain why the U.S. has a special stake in economic stagnation, extremism, ignorance and his- events unfolding in South Africa. torical traditions cast a pall over hopes and dreams for South Africa's future. 3. Discuss which important principles and values will ensure that U.S. interests in democracy and The future of South Africa is important to the U.S. self-determination can be sustained in the world for several reasons. In the first place, the U.S. has and at home. recently shown a renewed commitment to democracy and self-determination in the world. South Africa Materials offers a dramatic opportunity to determine if people of "Handout on South Africa" (page 36), chalkboard, different racial or ethnic backgrounds can live in peace, harmony and equality in spite of a deeply chalk troubled past and profound social and economic problems in the present. Many feel that the U.S., as the Time foreign country that contributed most to ending apart- Approximately 45 minutes heid, has a special obligation to assist in South Africa's transition to democracy and economic stability. South Procedures Africa's uncertain future may have a serious effect on Begin the discussion by quoting from a famous speech racial politics in the U.S., especially in foreign affairs. by Dr. Martin Luther King: "I have a dream...a dream African-Americans feel a special tie to events there deeply rooted in the American dream." Ask the par- and were influential in pressuring the U.S. govern- ticipants why this speech is famous and when it was ment to sanction South Africa. Future U.S. efforts, delivered. Ask them what they believe constitutes the whether they succeed or fail, will be felt across the American dream and why they believe African-Ameri- racial divide. In addition, the U.S., having emerged cans were willing to march on Washington, D.C., to from a long period of severe legal and social segrega- protest their treatment and denial of access to the tion only about 30 years ago, finds itself facing chal- American dream in American society. lenges at home that are similar to those of South Africa. While not as pronounced as conditions in Ask the group to compare conditions in the U.S. in South Africa, division, distrust, extremism, violence, 1963 to conditions in South Africa today. ignorance and some historical traditions have contrib- Distribute the "Handout on South Africa" to the uted to impediments to multiracial and multiethnic participants and give them about 10 minutes to com- integration and democratic progress here. As in South plete it. When they have finished, open the discussion Africa, economic stagnation has exacerbated these by asking them to compare the definition of U.S. problems and has prompted warnings that the U.S. is segregation with that of apartheid in South Africa. Ask headed for serious social disintegration and unrest. them to describe major differences between the two in Should we compare South Africa and its problems to terms of demographics, social conditions, government similar problems in the U.S.? What differences exist policies and actions, and recent history. Ask them to between the two? What can the U.S. do to help South compare the steps being taken to bring about reforms Africa move toward multiracial democracy? What in the two societies. Get them to determine whether or roleif anyshould the U.S. play in such a transi- not the U.S. has or should have a special role in tion? How will U.S. actions in South Africa affect the influencing an end to apartheid in South Africa be- U.S. position in the world? at home? cause of its democratic principles, its prominence in

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 11 114 TOPIC 2 ACTIVITY BOOK

the world and its racial problems. Ask them what racial integration, is a society that is dividing more and effect, if any, developments in South Africa will have more along racial and ethnic lines. Ask them if they on U.S. racial problems and what influence, if any, believe this to be true and, if so, what conditions have U.S. racial problems will have on developments in contributed to this development. Ask them what needs South Africa. to be done to arrest this trend in order to avoid racial and ethnic conflicts and social disintegration. Ask Turn the discussion to recently published literature them what they think this may or may not mean for the and commentary that have stated that the U.S., despite chances for far-reaching and difficult reforms and the elimination of legal and many social barriers to changes that are planned for South Africa.

GLOSSARY

African National Congress (ANC). Created in 1909 to oppose far right. A political position favoring authoritarian rule. For peacefully South African racial policies, the ANC turned to example, far-right governments often demand popular alle- militant opposition in 1960 after sustaining repeated, often giance to one leader who derives his or her power from the violent, attacks by the government. The South African govern- military. ment banned the ANC in 1960. Freedom Charter. This 1955 political platform of the African Agency for International Development (AID). Established in National Congress (ANC) announced the goal of a democratic 1961 under the U.S. State Department to coordinate nonmili- state based on the will of the people, with no distinctions based tary assistance to developing nations. The Agency for Interna- on color, race, sex or belief. It demanded that members of all tional Development gives priority to programs in agriculture, races be given the right to vote and to run for office. health, population planning, education and the environment. gerrymandering. The practice of drawing the boundaries of British Commonwealth. A voluntary coalition of Britain, districts in such a way that a particular political party has an associated states and certain sovereign states that were former advantage in elections. dependencies. Founded in 1931, its purpose is consultation and infrastructure. The foundation on which a nation's economy, cooperation. No collective decisions are binding on members including agriculture, trade and industry, dependsfor ex- and they may withdraw at any time. The British monarch is ample, roads, railroads, ports and power facilities. recognized as the symbolic head and, while the commonwealth states are linked economically, preferential tariffs were aban- labor-intensive agriculture. Farming that relies primarily on doned when Britain joined the Common Market in 1973. human labor rather than mechanical, technological or scientific methods to produce crops. Dutch East India Company. This company was chartered by the States-General of the Netherlands in 1602 and granted a miscegenation. A mixture of races by inbreeding; or marriage monopoly on Dutch trade east of the Cape of Good Hope and or cohabitation between members of different races. west of the Strait of Magellan. It subdued local rulers and drove out competition to dominate trade. Its possessions became part Napoleon I. Emperor of France and commander of French of the Dutch empire in the Far East in 1798. armies (1804-14). He is widely regarded as one of the greatest conquerors of all times. Economic sanctions. Economic restraints imposed by outside . National Endowment for Democracy.A private;U.S.-govern- powers seeking to pressure a country, without using force, to u change its policies. Sanctions include embargoes, tariffs, quo- ment-funded association that promotes worldwide develop- tas and denial of credit. ment of democratic values and human rights and freedoms through private-sector initiatives. It supports exchange visits, training programs and institution-building.

12 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 115 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 2 GLOSSARY (cont.)

Nobel Peace Prize.International prize awarded annually by the Soweto. A black township near Johannesburg. A student Nobel Foundation in Stockholm for the promotion of peace. demonstration against a government attempt to impose the Afrikaans language in education led to three days of riots in per capita gross domestic product.The total value of goods and Soweto; 236 non-whites were killed by police and 2 whites services produced within a country in a given year (does not were killed by rioters. The government withdrew the proposal. include income earned abroad) divided by the population. torture. The infliction of severe pain as a means of punishment per capita income. National income per person, or the total or coercion. value of a country's goods and services divided by the total population. tricameral parliament. A parliament that consists of three bodies or chambers. real wages.Real wages indicate the earnings of workers adjusted for changes in consumer prices. They are an index of 111 tyranny. Coercive, arbitrary government that recognizes no workers' standard of living. They also are an indication of real law or limitations. output per unit of labor input (productivity). World Bank. An international agency closely associated with Sharpeville. A town near Johannesburg. South African police the International Monetary Fund. The World Bank was estab- opened fire on blacks demonstrating against apartheid pass lished in 1944 to help countries devastated by World War II to laws in March 1960 and killed 69. The massacre brought South rebuild. Today it makes low-interest loans to developing na- Africa close to civil war and precipitated international con- tions for economic development projects such as highways and demnation of the government. dams. Officially known as the International Bank for Recon- struction and Development (IBRD), it is the largest international lending agency of its kind and disburses about $15 billion annually.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 13 116 TOPIC ACTIVITIES

Environmental crisis in former Soviet bloc whose problem? who pays? How did Communist government policies affect the environment? What priority should new governments in the former Soviet bloc give to environmental cleanup efforts? How can the international community address global environmental problems? Why have past efforts failed?

ARTICLE SUMMARY advance ecologically sound projects. The U.S. government, business and nongovernmental organizations may THEformer Soviet republics and East European all play a role, but the problems will not soon go away. nations face wide-scale environmental problems at least as serious as those the U.S. and Europe expe- ACTIVITY rienced 30 years ago. The damage in the former Soviet Union is the result of 60 years of abuse and neglect. Overview Early government measures to protect the environ- Since the first international conference on the human ment from the effects of collectivization and rapid environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972, pollu- industrialization were never enforced, and warnings tion of the environment and the destruction of the by environmentalists were suppressed or largely ig- earth's ecosystem have been high on the world's nored. When Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in agenda. The recent Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the mid-1980s called for glasnost, or a more open Brazil, underscored the continuing universal concern. society, environmental activists stepped up their pro- While few people can agree on what, precisely, tests against government policies, contributing to the should be doneand by whommost feel that the political ferment that eventually toppled the Soviet pollution of the environment and the destruction of the Union. Currently the former Soviet bloc's most seri- ecosystem of the earth must be stopped. Nearly all ous and urgent environmental problem is dealing with recognize that the solution to many of these problems defective nuclear reactors, similar to the one at will cost a great deal of money and effort. Chernobyl that caused the worst nuclear catastrophe in history. Other environmental problems include seri- One region where environmental degradation has ous water pollution, degradation of land, losses of taken its greatest toll is the former Soviet bloc. While biological resources and air pollution. The economic the political, economic and social problems that haunt and environmental recovery of the region will depend this former empire are massive, the environmental on new energy policies and on exploiting and con- crisis that it faces may be even greater, threatening the serving energy reserves, namely oil and natural gas. very existence of the land and its people. By extension, New policies will require technology and large amounts it menaces the ecology of the entire globe. of capital, which is in short supply. Russia especially With reckless disregard for health, human life and is in need of loans, grants and private investment to the environment, the ambitious Stalinist programs for

14 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 11.7 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 3 rapid heavy industrialization and collectivization of 2. Discuss why the ex-Soviet bloc and many other agriculture depleted natural resources, destroyed for- nations find it difficult to deal effectively with ests and agricultural areas and polluted waters and managing and correcting environmental prob- streams. In many respects, present environmental condi- lems. tions in the former empire are comparable with the situa- 3. Discuss possible ideas or programs that could tion that existed in other industrial nations 30 years ago. be developed by the world community to assist One of the most hazardous problems in the former in the management of the environmental crisis Soviet states involves civilian and military nuclear in the former Soviet empire or in other nations establishments. Civilian nuclear reactors, substandard around the world. in design and poorly constructed, threaten the lives and safety of people throughout the world. Some experts Materials are afraid that an accident even worse than the "Handout on the Environment" (page 37), chalk, Chernobyl disaster may occur in the near future unless chalkboard nuclear reactors are shut down or upgraded immediately. In addition, while the complete story has not Time been forthcoming, there are indications that the indus- Approximately 45 minutes trial complex responsible for the manufacture ofnuclear weapons may present even greater dangers to the world. At least three serious nuclear accidents have Procedure occurred since the late 1950s, causing tremendous Begin the discussion by describing some current envi- damage in and around the former Soviet states. ronmental problems, such as the depletion ofthe ozone layer, the greenhouse effect, acid rain, etc. Ask partici- The massive cleanups and the reallocation and pants their views on these questions and get them to restructuring of resources and priorities will require a express whether or not they believe that the earth and great deal of money. Where will funds be found? its environment are endangered. Ask them what they Given the difficulties faced by the former Soviet believe are the most serious environmental challenges empire in converting to market economies, curbing facing the U.S. and what difficulties stand in the way hyperinflation and developing trade and investment of correcting these problems. Ask them what they as well as dealing with other economic and social believe they should do to help solve environmental problemsmoney for environmental concerns is sim- problems in the U.S. ply not available in anywhere near the amount needed. Some assistance has been forthcoming from outside Turn the discussion to the fOrmer Soviet empire. the former states. Nations, international organiza- Ask them to summarize environmental problems that tions, NGOs and others have pledged or sent funds, exist there. Ask them to compare these problems with often with strings attached, to tackle the problems. environmental difficulties in the U.S. Describe some How can the former Soviet bloc countries afford to of the social, political and economic changes that are manage their affairs, develop political, economic and occurring in the former bloc and ask them what effect social harmony and solve the environmental crisis, as they believe these changes will have on efforts to do well? What steps can be taken to ensure that the something about the environmental crisis there. In- movement to a market economy will feature a more form the participants that, because of the gravity of the environmentally sound approach? What role should situation, the precariousness of the transition to de- nations, international organizations, NGOs and others mocracy and market economics and the lack of avail- play in working for solutions to these problems? able resources, it may be necessary for other countries to help solve this problem in order to prevent further Objectives environmental damage. Upon completion, participants will be able to: Write the names of four groups on the chalkboard: 1. Discuss the severe environmental problems "Europe," "The United Nations," "The U.S." and that exist in the former Soviet empire and "Nongovernmental organizations." Explain to the par- explain how these problems were created. ticipants that they are to divide evenly into these

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 15 11 8 3 ACTIVITY BOOK

groupsand any other group that they might sug- necessary funds. Outline the views of each group on gestin order to produce ideas and programs on how the chalkboard and, when all the groups have finished, to deal with this environmental crisis. Distribute the ask them to rank and evaluate the different viewpoints "Handout on the Environment." Ask them to work and solutions. Ask them which program they think is together within their group to prepare an action plan the best and whether or not they would use its solutions for what they believe needs to be done. Give them or combine them with others in order to address the about 10 minutes to complete this task. problem. Ask them to rank and evaluate their funding ideas and whether or not they should also be com- Call them back together and ask each group to bined. present its views on what it believes to be the worst environmental situations in the former Soviet bloc. Be After they have finished their evaluation, ask them sure that the groups provide reasons for their choices. what they believe will happen to the world's environ- Ask them whether or not they believe that the effects ment if their ideas or similar ones are not adopted. of these problems are confined to the former Soviet Have them explain and evaluate what role the U.S. bloc or if they pose a threat to the world at large. Ask should play in this matter. Ask them what, if anything, them to offer suggestions on how to eliminate these they should personally do with regard to this problem problems and how they would arrange to provide the as citizens of the U.S. or as concerned individuals.

16 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 1 9 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 2 GLOSSARY

DDT. A toxic insecticide developed during World War II to Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). In addition to trying improve agricultural production. It was banned from further to curb the spread of nuclear weapons, the treaty commits all use during the 1970s by the U.S. government because of signatories to negotiate an end to the nuclear arms race and, dangers of residual effects on the ecosystem. Its use is contin- ultimately, to negotiate nuclear disarmament. ued in other parts of the world. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development European Community (EC).A European economic union (OECD). Organization launched in December 1960 to pro- created by the Treaty of Rome in 1957 that eliminated internal mote economic growth, employment and improved standards barriers to trade. The six original members were Belgium, of living among member countries by encouraging coordi- France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Ger- nated policies. It seeks "to promote the sound and harmonious many. Since then, Britain, Ireland, Denmark, Greece, Spain development of the world economy and improve the lot of the and Portugal have joined. At the end of 1993 the EC became the developing countries...." Its members include the U.S., the European Union. West European countries, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

Great Depression. A period of worldwide economic stagnation Stalin, Joseph. The sole and undisputed head of the Commu- and unemployment in the 1930s that was marked by severe nist party and leader of the Soviet Union from 1927 to 1953. He cutbacks in international trade and widespread default on loans ruled with rigid authoritarianism and through widespread use by sovereign borrowers. In the U.S., the Depression dated from of terror. the stock market crash of 1929. Third World. Economically less-developed nations of the gross national product (GNP). The total value of a nation's world, most of which gained independence after World War II. goods and services, including government expenditures and During the cold war, the First World referred to the U.S. and investments abroad, during a given period of time, usually one other countries with free-market economies and the Second year. Different methods of calculating national economic fac- World to the Soviet Union and other Communist-bloc coun- tors, such as currency-value changes, can lead to varying tries. figures. United Nations Development ProgramAn international agency Group of Seven (G-7). The seven most economically devel- that coordinates and administers technical assistance provided oped countries of the world: Britain, Canada, France, Ger- through the UN system to speed social and economic many, Italy, Japan and the U.S. The heads of state of these development in less-developed countries. countries meet at yearly summits to discuss international United Nations Environment Program. Established in 1972 to economic and monetary developments as well as a wider range facilitate international cooperation in all matters affecting the of issues, such as terrorism and arms control. These summits human environment, to ensure that environmental problems of are also attended by the president ofthe European Community's wide international significance receive appropriate Council of Ministers. governmental consideration and to promote the acquisition Lenin, Vladimir Ilich Ulyanov.Founder and leader of the and exchange of environmental knowledge. Russian Bolshevik party, he devised the strategy for the seizure U.S. Superfund. A program of the U.S. government that began of power in the October 1917 revolution. He became the in 1986 and established deadlines and standards for the cleanup founder and leader of the Soviet Union. of hazardous toxic waste sites in the U.S. It designates which nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). These private foun- sites are considered the most serious toxic hazards in the nation dations and voluntary associations, usually designed to deal and provides the means to clean them up. with specific issues or areas of concern, devote their efforts and World Bank. See Glossary, Topic 2. resources to addressing or influencing national or international matters.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 17 120 TOPIC JOIlisst ACTIVITIES 4

Trade with the Pacific Rim: pressure orcooperation?

What is the relationship between U.S. jobs and the rapidly expanding Pacific Rim economies? What accounts for the U.S. trade deficit with the Pacific Rim? How can the U.S. improve relations with the Pacific Rim?

ARTICLE SUMMARY ACTIVITY ONE THE Clinton Administration has declared that "no Overview region in the world is more important to the U.S. When we think of popular ideas about the growth and than Asia." It dramatized that point at the November development of the U.S., we invariably think of the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation dynamics of a westward movement of people and forum in Seattle. U.S. trade with Asia is already one events. The U.S., settled primarily by Europeans, was and one-half times as large as U.S. trade with Europe. formed by the westward movement ofpeople from the As the economies of the Pacific Rim countries grow original 13 colonies on the Atlantic seaboard to Pacific and their markets continue to expand, trade with that outposts in Oregon, California, Alaska and Hawaii. region will be even more important to Americans. What is often ignored by Americans is the eastward Increasing the access of U.S. exports to overseas movement of people and ideas from the Pacific Rim to markets can lead to job growth and a reduction in the the U.S. Most Asian-Americans came to the New trade deficit. World across the Pacific. In recent years the pace of The article explores the prospects for trade with the Asian immigration has picked up. major Pacific Rim countries. It presents conflicting The U.S. has been heavily involved in the Pacific views on the U.S. trade deficit and ways to reduce it, region for well over a century. It acquired the Philip- such as asking trade partners voluntarily to restrain pines during the Spanish-American War and promul- exports, establishing lists of unfair trading practices gated the "Open Door" policy for China as the 20th and imposing retaliatory tariffs. The article also raises century began. It had already annexed Hawaii, pur- the question of how much weight the architects of chased Alaska and "opened up" Japan for U.S. trade. trade policy should give to such traditional U.S. con- Other milestones of U.S. involvement in the Asian- cerns as promoting human rights, democracy and Pacific area include the Pacific theater of World War regional stability and security. To what extent, for II, the Korean War and the long Indochina struggle. example, should the U.S. apply pressure to its trade The flow of U.S. history appears to be away from its partners? Should it tie improved trade relations to European past in the direction of a Pacific future. It is observance of human rights? to respect for intellectual no mere coincidence that the Pacific state of California property rights? Has the time come to end the trade is presently the most populous in the nation and one of embargo on Vietnam? the major cultural and industrial centers of the U.S. 18 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 21 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 4

The Pacific RimAustralia, China, Hong Kong, Procedure Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Begin the discussion by asking the participants what is the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Viet- meant by "advanced industrial nation." Ask them to nampresents new challenges and opportunities for give reasons why some nations are advanced. Ask the U.S. to address in the post-cold-war world. U.S. them what the advanced industrial nations have in trade with the Pacific Rim, which is undergoing rapid, common and get them to determine which of these far-reaching economic growth and political develop- traits are most important. List their responses on the ment, is already larger than trade with Europe. The chalkboard. U.S., beset by budget and trade deficits, persistent unemployment and social unrest, is anxious to expand Turn the discussion to "developing nations." Ask its trade with the region. In addition to increasing them how they would describe the major differences exports, the U.S. is concerned about working with the between developing nations and advanced industrial Pacific Rim countries to curb nuclear proliferation, to nations. Ask them to explain what nations must do to promulgate human rights and to promote democratic become industrially advanced. List the responses on the chalkboard as well. Take about 10 minutes for this development. part of the activity. As the Pacific Rim nations continue their remarkable growth and development, the U.S. may be hard- Divide the participants into five equal groups rep- pressed to maintain a high level of influence in the resenting the Asean countries, China, Japan, South region. The U.S. needs to identify its principal goals Korea and Taiwan. Distribute the "Handout on the and the means to achieve them. What can it do in order Pacific Rim" and give them about 10 minutes to create to have a role in shaping desired outcomes? Why have a profile of their group. Pacific Rim economies experienced rapid, dynamic After 10 minutes ask the participants to come changes in recent years? What policies or events have together to report on their group. Ask them to give an accelerated this growth? How have these changes economic and political profile of their nation or group affected relations with the U.S. and the world? What of nations and to explain why they believe it is either future problems and challenges can be anticipated in industrially advanced, developing or stagnant. Get the region? them to state the reasons for their choice. Then ask them to predict what their group will be able to achieve Objectives over the next 25 years and to state how and why they Upon completion, participants will be able to: believe this will happen. Summarize their reports on 1. Describe how and why Pacific Rim economies the chalkboard and, when they have finished, ask all are experiencing rapid and far-reaching growth participants whether or not they agree with each analy- and development at the present time. sis. Ask them to find similarities and differences among the nations. Ask them to determine whether or not their 2. Compare recent economic developments in the relationship with the U.S. is important to these nations Pacific Rim with those in other areas of the and how they might use this relationship as a measuring world. stick to compare the nations' futures. Ask them what other factors should be considered in order to determine 3. Discuss and evaluate what issues or problems the successes or failures each group can anticipate in the must be taken into account to ensure that posi- future. End the discussion by comparing their profiles tive economic and political growth continues in with the characteristics of advanced or developing the area. nations that they listed on the chalkboard at the beginning of the discussion. Ask them if they still like the Materials earlier ideas they expressed or if they would like to "Handout on the Pacific Rim" (page 38), The World change or modify what they previously stated. End the Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, chalk, chalkboard discussion by asking them if they can make a general statement about what causes nations to develop and to Time become advanced. Ask them what nations can or should Approximately 45 minutes do in order to prevent their decline and fall.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 19 122 TOPIC 4 ACTIVITY BOOK

ACTIVITY TWO Objectives Overview Upon completion, participants will be able to: Many people in and out of public life have begun to 1. Explain the effects of U.S. trade relations with accept the idea that possibly the most important adjust- the Pacific Rim on the U.S. economy. ment the U.S. must make to succeed in the post-cold- war world will be a willingness on the part of Ameri- 2. Identify, describe and compare key Pacific Rim cans to reexamine old assumptions and to accept new nations and situations that the U.S. must ad- ways of thinking. This is particularly true in the case dress in order to develop successful trade poli- of the U.S. economy. Americans are worried about cies for the area. jobs, budget and trade deficits, productivity, insuffi- 3. Describe and compare various approaches that cient savings and investment and the lack of a robust the U.S. may try in order to improve its trade confidence in business enterprise. A general uneasi- relations in the area. ness over the loss of jobs in the U.S. to overseas industries and the failure to make the necessary adjust- Materials ments to reverse course is growing. Rather than face Chalk, chalkboard these issues head on, various Americans have blamed each other, foreigners or any other convenient target for their problems. A good example of this is the Time "Japan bashing" that has occurred as the result of trade Approximately 45 minutes difficulties between the U.S. and Japan. Procedure In a very short time, the U.S. has gone from being Begin the discussion by asking the participants to list a creditor nation with a strong industrial base and a the major appliances (cameras, autos, televisions, etc.) trade surplus to being a debtor nation that has experi- their families possess. Ask them how many of these enced a remarkable decline in its industrial output and items were made by foreign or foreign-owned compa- a trade deficit. Various segments of U.S. society, nies and how many were American-made. Ask them to whether they are part of the government and its bu- list the countries that manufactured these products, if reaucracy, export-generating enterprises, organized they can. Take a random sample from the group and labor or members of the general public, have differing write the results on the chalkboard. Ask them why they opinions as to what should or should not be done in believe this situation is typical for most American order to reverse current trends and to improve Ameri- families. Explain to them that as late as the early 1960s can performance in trade and production. Some believe Americans bought fewer foreign goods and that U.S. the U.S. should use various forms of pressure; others industries manufactured many of these products. Ask favor greater cooperation. According to others, the U.S. them why they believe that U.S. industries no longer should concentrate on making serious domestic adjust- produce many of the manufactured goods that Ameri- ments, such as cutting the federal budget deficit, encour- cans purchase today. Ask them to explain what eco- aging savings and discouraging consumption, and pro- nomic effect this has had on the nation. moting export-oriented industries in order to make the U.S. more competitive in this vital region. Write the following statistics on the chalkboard: How do U.S. trade relations with Pacific Rim 1992 U.S. global trade deficit $84.3 billion 1992 U.S. trade deficit with Asia $87 billion. nations affect the U.S. economy? What approaches will best help the U.S. improve trade relations with Ask them what these statistics say about U.S. trade Pacific Rim nations and address its domestic con- relations with the Pacific Rim. Then turn their atten- cerns? How do differences of politics or perceptions tion to the "Selected Statistics" chart on page 42 of the influence the difficulties the U.S. has in this area? To 1994 Great Decisions. Ask them to explain the general which particular Pacific Rim economies, issues or information the chart gives them about Pacific Rim practices should the U.S. give priority? Which inter- trade. Ask them to target four economies or groups of estseconomic, political or militaryare more im- nations, based on their interpretation of the chart and portant in the short term? the long term? on their understanding of the readings, and to develop

20 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 2 3 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 4 a U.S. strategy on trade and other matters for each. Ask ciples when approaching these matters. Ask them to them to keep in mind that the purpose of their actions speculate on how difficult it would or would not be to is to improve economic conditions in the U.S. get the following groups to agree to these approaches: American consumers, the American government, Divide them into four groups and give them 10 American investors, American businessmen, the gen- minutes to devise a strategy and plan of action to eral public. Ask them what laws or policies must be enacted in order get the American people to embrace improve trade relations with their targeted economy. Then call them back together and ask each group to the measures they have suggested. report on its strategy and plan of action. Summarize End the discussion by asking what they believe the findings on the chalkboard. When all have re- would happen to the U.S. and its relations with the ported, invite the entire group to comment on the ideas Pacific Rim economies if their ideas were carried out. and strategies presented. Ask them to compare the Close by asking them what will eventually happen to strategies and to determine whether or not the U.S. can the U.S. if it fails to take action regarding trade matters or should adopt a comprehensive plan or set of prin- with the Pacific Rim.

GLOSSARY

Asian Development Bank. A financial institution established resort to countries with serious debt problems. In return for to promote investment and provide technical assistance for IMF loans, countries are usually required to make economic economic development in the Asian countries. Its members reforms and undertake austerity programs. The IMF is con- include both the Asian countries and several nonregional trolled by the U.S. and other major Western powers and is members such as the U.S. and the countries of Western Europe. closely associated with the World Bank.

European Community (EC). See Glossary, Topic 3. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). A cartel of oil-producing countries established in 1960 to unify free-market economists. They believe in economic policies and coordinate their petroleum supply and pricing policies. that stress free competition, profits and the elimination of trade OPEC members drastically raised oil prices in 1973 and 1979. barriers such as tariffs, quotas and duties.

gross national product (GNP). See Glossary, Topic 3. Tiananmen Square. A square in the heart of Beijing, the capital of China, which was the site of pro-democracy protests in International Monetary Fund (IMF).Founded in 1944, the spring 1989. IMF is an international agency based in Washington, D.C. It helps maintain stable exchange rates and acts as a lender of last World Bank. See Glossary, Topic 2.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 21 124 TOPIC ACTIVITIES

Defense: redefining U.S. needs and priorities

Are the planned cuts in the defense budget too little or too much? How much military force is enough in the post-cold-war world? Should the U.S. military be assigned nontraditional roles, for example, fighting the war on drugs?

ARTICLE SUMMARY of what are or should be the proper status and role for its military today. Since the Korean War ended in 1953 FOR more than 40 years, the American military the U.S. has maintained large defense forces in order based its budgets, weapons projects, war plans to contain the military threat from the Soviet Union. indeed, its very reason for existenceon the challeng- The U.S. had never before in peacetime maintained a ing and frightening possibility of global conventional large standing army. In order to be prepared for and nuclear war with the Soviet Union. The uncertain conventional or nuclear war on a global scale, Ameri- new post-cold-war era now poses a novel range of can military leaders asked for and received a great deal unexpected challenges for U.S. defense policymakers. of support and resources from the nation. What unconventional roles can the military appropri- ately be asked to shoulder to help the nation solve its The almost unbelievable series of events, begin- many domestic problems? In the absence of the super- ning with the removal of the Berlin Wall, which had power nuclear arms race, what role do nuclear weap- symbolized the division of Europe into Communist ons play in this "new world order"? And, can the U.S. East and free world West, and culminating with the reduce its all-pervasive presence around the world dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, not only without leading other nations to believe that it is ended the cold war but raised the possibility of a withdrawing from its global responsibilities and thus, "threat meltdown" for the U.S. military. Without the perhaps, sparking unwanted regional arms races? These almost daily apprehension about nuclear or conven- and other pressing questions all call for answers as the tional warfare with the Communist bloc, the U.S., the U.S. national security establishment steers its way world's only military superpower, is now obliged to through the uncharted waters of a fractious, post- define new roles and missions for itself in a world that Soviet world. has yet to be clearly understood or defined. The U.S. Defense Department has identified nuclear ACTIVITY proliferation, dangers to democracy, crises or threats Overview from a "handful of bad guys," such as Iraq and Libya, One of the important legacies that the U.S. must and problems stemming from a weak economy as address in the aftermath of the cold war is the question priorities that must be addressed. These priorities require new thinking about the world and new strategies.

22 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 125 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 5

How will the U.S. military be used to carry out these 2. Describe how the role and status of the U.S. objectives? The unilateral U.S. invasion of Panama to military may be seriously revised to deal with remove "bad guy" Manuel Noriega in 1989 was the changing world events and pressing domestic first large-scale U.S. military action since World War requirements. II that was not directed at a Communist threat. A 3. Explain the political and economic factors that second was the Persian Gulf War, a multilateral opera- must be considered in determining the future tion planned and executed to deal with another "bad role and position of the military in American guy." The more recent humanitarian and military society. action in Somalia, which featured close military cooperation with the United Nations, has left the U.S. wary about similar missions in the future. Materials "Handout on U.S. Defense" (page 39), chalk, Peacetime engagement of U.S. forces to promote chalkboard political and economic stability could require the U.S. military to act as a development agency, political tutor Time and global policeman in troubled nations and even at Approximately 45 minutes home. Some consideration has been given to using the armed forces in the war on drugs. There have also been calls for use of the military to battle violent crime and Procedure for a larger "civilian" role for the military in American Begin the discussion by asking the participants what domestic life. they believe are the greatest threats to world peace since the Soviet Union has ceased to exist. Write their All of this would require profound changes in responses on the chalkboard and ask them to compare approach and objectives for the U.S. military and these problems with the real or imagined problems that affect it as a fighting force. In addition, the American existed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Point public is clamoring for the downsizing of government, out that the U.S. is now the world's only military deficit reduction and domestic reform, to be paid for superpower and that many Americans are uncertain with a "peace dividend." This could require the whether we should maintain the same levels of spend- downscaling of the military to the point where it ing and preparedness on military matters that we did affected military capability, morale, operations and during the cold war. Ask them their beliefs on this maintenance. Drastic changes in U.S. military mis- subject and the reasons why they hold them. sions not only raise the possibility of diminishing U.S. security but also of doing harm to the military estab- Divide the participants into two groups according to lishment and its position in American society. their beliefs: one group representing Americans who favor reducing the role and status of the U.S. military Redefining the objectives, role and requirements and the other representing those who favor maintain- for the U.S. military will require political, diplomatic ing or strengthening it. If they are lopsided or unani- and economic skills. What role or roles should the U.S. mous in their position, simply "volunteer" enough military play in the new world order? How can the U.S. participants to the opposing side to ensure that the two protect and project its interests as the world's only groups are equal in number. superpower? What new, unconventional missionsif anyshould the U.S. military undertake abroad and at Ask them to work together to prepare their posi- home? How far should the U.S. cut its military expen- tions. Distribute the "Handout on U.S. Defense" and ditures? How will this affect American society? give the participants about 15 minutes to complete it. When they have finished, ask both groups for their Objectives views on the importance of the strategic global areas and the reasoning behind their military policy for each Upon completion, participants will be able to: area. Summarize their arguments on the chalkboard. 1. Discuss how the end of the cold war has af- Ask them what actions they would take with regard to fected the planning and use of U.S. military spending, size of forces, etc., in order to implement forces at home and abroad. their policies.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 23 126 TOPIC 5 ACTIVITY BOOK

After both sides have presented their arguments, nel to provide humanitarian or developmental ser- ask them to point out the areas where they agree or viceswould be a good compromise between the two disagree. Get them to summarize the ideas that under- positions. Ask them how this might affect the concept lie the differences between the two positions and ask of civilian control over the military in the U.S. system them what could happen to U.S. security and other of government. Would it lead to the kind of concentra- interests if these ideas or assumptions are in error. tion of power and influence that President Dwight D. Eisenhower had in mind when he warned Americans Ask them if they believe that "unconventional mis- in his farewell address to beware the "military-indus- sions"for instance, the use of U.S. military person- trial complex"?

GLOSSARY

gross domestic product (GDP). The total value of goods and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). See Glossary, services produced within a country in a given year (does not Topic 1. include income earned abroad). Panama Canal Treaty. The 1977 treaty provided for the return Korean War. This conflict between Communist and non- of the Canal Zone to Panama in 1999. The U.S. exercised its Communist forces in Korea began in June 1950 and centered right to protect the canal when U.S. forces invaded Panama in around the 38th parallel. The United Nations authorized mem- December 1989. ber nations to aid South Korea under the command of U.S. General Douglas MacArthur. Chinese forces joined the North Pentagon. This five-sided structure on the Virginia side of the Korean army. Negotiations for a cease-fire to end the stalemate Potomac River adjacent to Washington, D.C., houses the were begun at Panmunjom in 1951 but were not successful principal executive offices of the U.S. Department of Defense. until July 1953. This was the first limited war fought by the U.S. Completed in 1943, it contains 17 miles of corridors and during the cold-war era. provides office space for more than 30,000 persons.

military coup (coup d'etat). The violent overthrow or change Strategic Air Command. This specialized command of the of an existing government by military force. U.S. Air Force, answerable directly to the President through the Secretary of Defense, is designed to attack and destroy the vital National Guard. The volunteer military forces retained by each elements of an aggressor's war-making capabilities. It there- state in the U.S. to maintain internal order. The Second Amend- fore acts as a deterrent to all-out war. ment to the U.S. Constitution guarantees each state the right to keep its own militia. Financed largely by federal funds, the Vietnam syndrome. U.S. participation in the Indochinese wars Guard may be called into federal service during wartime. of 1964-73 damaged civilian and military morale and made the country reluctant ever again to dispatch U.S. forces to faraway National Security Agency.Established in 1952, this secret countries. The commitment and deployment of U.S. military communications, crypotographical and intelligence agency forces in the post-Vietnam era are seen in some quarters as protects worldwide American government secret communica- efforts to strengthen U.S. resolve. tions and produces intelligence information derived from its surveillance of secret communications of all foreign nations. It serves as the principal secret code-maker and code-breaker of the U.S. government.

24 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 127 A a.4% Argeniina, Brazil, Chile: democracy and market economics

Why did Argentina, Brazil and Chile send the military back to the barracks? Are democracy and free-market economics firmly rooted in the Southern Cone? What is the outlook for increased U.S. trade with the Western Hemisphere?

ARTICLE SUMMARY new relationships both within the region and with the outside world. A Southern Cone Common Market, ARGENTINA,Brazil and Chile are currently under- Mercosur, has been formed, and the U.S. has indicated Pi. going dramatic political and economic change. it favors closer economic cooperation with its south- Each country is, in its own distinctive way, shedding ern neighbors. The U.S. must decide whether it also the vestiges of authoritarianism and adopting free- wishes to become involved in the ABC countries' market economic policies. The article traces these democratic transition. developments in the so-called ABC countriesfrom Pinochet's military dictatorship in Chile to the 1988 plebiscite that ousted him; from Peronism and milita- ACTIVITY ONE rism in Argentina to the ouster of the military after the Overview country's defeat in the Falklands (Malvinas) War; and Throughout their history U.S. citizens have often been Brazil's long and gradual movement away from un- unaware of or simply uninterested in South America. stable military regimes. These young democracies How many people, for example, are familiar with the face some common internal challenges, such as defin- democratic revolutions that have taken place in Ar- ing the role of the military, weeding out corruption, gentina, Brazil and Chile over the past few years? The and improving economic and social conditions. Poli- answer is probably fewer than those who have heard of tics aside, they are also now undertaking major steps the startling changes in Eastern Europe, South Africa to alter their economies. They began in the late 1980s and China. In spite of the outbreak of democracy and to replace their highly protectionist, state-led econo- the restructuring of the economic life of Argentina, mies, which had brought them hyperinflation, debt Brazil and Chile, there have been few video images to and poverty, with more-competitive free-market sys- capture the popular imagination. Since these events do tems. Chile is the region's success story and is achiev- not bear directly on the dissolution of the Soviet ing an economic growth rate comparable with that of empire or on the position of the U.S. as the world's Southeast Asia. Argentina has also successfully imple- only military superpower, they have not received mented some of the most profound privatization and attention commensurate with their importance. reform plans in Latin America. Brazil has made the slowest progress in instituting reforms and still suffers In recent years the Southern Cone nations have from low economic performance in some key areas. been successfully tackling problems created by years These economic and political changes have created of extensive mismanagement and corruption. Enor- ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 25 128 TOPIC 6 ACTIVITY BOOK

mous foreign debts, cycles of hyperinflation, stagnant in the U.S. system of government. Ask them if they economic growth, recession and doubt undermined believe that a military coup is a serious threat to U.S. society and exacerbated existing economic and social society and to state what conditions would have to problems. Argentina, Brazil and Chile have instituted obtain in order for the military to seize control of the dramatic changes in their economies and govern- government. ments. The adoption of strict free-market policies has helped to bring about an economic boom and the Distribute the "Handout on Argentina, Brazil and Chile." Divide participants into three groups, each prospect of continued growth and expansion. In addi- representing a country. Give them about 10 minutes to tion, these nations are poised to play a wider, more gather the information asked for in the handout. Then prominent role in Western Hemispheric affairs and in relations with the U.S. How were polarized, bring them back together and ask them to contrast the role and influence of the military in these countries antidemocratic politics of the left and right, repressive with the situation in the U.S. Ask each group to pro- militarism and authoritarian rule swept aside in these three countries and replaced by open, democratic vide an analysis of the prospects for a regression to politics and debate? What remaining problems and military rule in each country. Ask them to cite examples from the past or present that tend to support their ideas. conditions may threaten these changes? What role will Ask them what needs to be done to ensure that demo- these new societies play in the Western Hemisphere cratic reform will continue to succeed and, also, how and in the world at large? they believe this could be brought about. Ask them what role economic and social conditions may play in Objectives the continued growth of democracy. Record their Upon completion, participants will be able to: responses to these questions on the chalkboard under 1. Describe the forces and events that have helped the general heading of "Conditions" and the subhead- Argentina, Brazil and Chile move from au- ings of "Economic," "Social" and "Political." thoritarian governments to evolving prosper- End the discussion by asking them what the three ous democracies. countries could do to gain greater understanding and 2. Describe problems in the three countries that appreciation in the U.S. and elsewhere of the changes could sidetrack continued economic and politi- that are taking place in the Southern Cone countries cal reform. and the challenges these countries face for continued success in the near future. 3. Explore what could help Argentina, Brazil and Chile improve their chances of successfully ACTIVITY TWO reforming their societies. Overview Materials The recent U.S. national debate about the North Ameri- "Handout on Argentina, Brazil and Chile" (page 40), can Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) was marked by chalk, chalkboard disagreement about how free trade between Mexico, Canada and the U.S. would affect U.S. jobs, produc- Time tion and the environment. Many Americans are still apprehensive. At the same time, they are concerned Approximately 45 minutes about the serious economic competition that the U.S. faces from Europe and Asia, and the increasing federal Procedure indebtedness. In private and public discourse, people Begin the discussion with a brief description of the from government, business, industry and labor have dispute between President Harry Truman and General called for various measures to "get tough" with U.S. Douglas MacArthur during the Korean War, which led trading partners. If there is general agreement on any the President to dismiss MacArthur. Ask them what aspect of this issue, it is that the U.S. is in a difficult the dismissal illustrates about the role of the military position and must persuade or coerce its major trading

26 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 129 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 6 partners to give U.S. goods and services greater access Time to their markets. Faced with the rapid economic growth Approximately 45 minutes and trading power of Pacific Rim nations and competition from the European Community, the U.S. needs Procedure to reconsider its trade priorities and policies. Begin the discussion by asking the participants to give The Western Hemisphere offers the possibility for reasons why they would or would not agree with the expanding U.S. initiatives. While socioeconomic and remark that Americans will do anything about Latin political problems still exist, the nations of Argentina, America except read about it. Ask why many Ameri- Brazil and Chile are open to new relationships with the cans have such little knowledge of or interest in many outside world. Measures such as the Southern Cone of the countries and peoples of this region. Ask them Common Market (Mercosur) among Argentina, Bra- to describe how this affects the U.S. and its people. zil, Paraguay and Uruguay offer new opportunities for Point out some of the ways the U.S. has been actively the U.S. to explore, as does Nafta. The addition of involved in the area by briefly describing U.S. inter- Chile to Nafta could advance the long-term goal of ests and actions in Cuba, Central America, Haiti and creating the free-trade area from Alaska to Tierra del the war on drugs. Fuego proposed by President George Bush in his Turn the discussion to U.S. economic concerns. Enterprise for the Americas Initiative. Briefly describe U.S. trade problems with Asia and What vital interests does the U.S. have in South Europe and the difficulties that must be faced in order America? How should it respond to the recent trend to improve U.S. performance in these regions. Then toward free-market economies in the Southern Cone ask them to respond to the proposition that the U.S. can countries? How should it react to obstacles to further solve some of its problems by entering into a free-trade progress in the area? Should the U.S. support the union in the Western Hemisphere. Point out that Nafta expansion of Nafta to include Chile, Argentina and is a step in that direction. Brazil? Ask the participants to consider the future role of Argentina, Brazil and Chile in economic matters. Ask Objectives them to describe the strengths and weaknesses of each Upon completion, participants will be able to: country and whether or not they believe each country 1. Describe and evaluate the economic potential will continue its positive economic development. Af- of the emerging Southern Cone nations. ter they have finished this evaluation, ask them if the U.S. should take on any special responsibilities or 2. Discuss the significance of the Southern Cone policies to guarantee or assist any ofthe three countries nations in U.S. trade policy. to continue sound economic development. 3. Evaluate the effects the extension of Nafta to End the discussion by asking them to summarize the rest of the Western Hemisphere would have economic and political reasons why they believe the on U.S. trade, jobs and industry. U.S. should or should not forge partnerships with Argentina, Brazil and Chile. Ask them why the U.S. Materials should or should not actively pursue the extension of Chalk, chalkboard Nafta to all countries in the Western Hemisphere.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 27 130 IOPIC 6 ACTIVITY BOOK GLOSSARY

authoritarian military regimes.Concentrated power in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). See Glossary, Topic 4. hands of a military leader or group of military leaders who are E Marxism. Based on the theories of Karl Marx and Friedrich not responsible to the people. Engels, this economic philosophy calls for the rejection of free Berlin Wall. This wall dividing Communist East and non- competition and the profit motive and the creation of a centrally Communist West Berlin was built in 1961 in order to slow the controlled economy. escape of East Germans to freedom. petrodollars. A term used to describe the huge amounts of Christian Democrats. A Chilean Catholic party that contained money earned by OPEC (see Glossary, Topic 4) after it raised a left wing. It was supported by radicals in Chile from 1952 oil prices in the 1970s. Since OPEC would only take dollars in until it lost power to Salvador Allende in 1970. It was tolerated payment for its oil, its members racked up billions of dollars by military leaders until 1977. many more than they could spend within their countries.

Communist guerrillas. Members of highly mobile, indepen- plebiscite. A vote by people of a country or district expressing dent Communist bands whose war tactics are based on harass- an opinion for or against a proposal, such as a government or ment, sabotage and surprise attacks. constitution.

Freedom House. Has served as a clearinghouse and research Socialists. A group that favors redistributing wealth, income and document center devoted to the cause of freedom and and power to the less well-off, particularly industrial workers, democratic institutions since 1941. It conducts a worldwide through common ownership of factories, banks and the land, Survey of Freedom, and it maintains a speaker's bureau of that is, the "means of production." dissenters-in-exile. Third World. See Glossary, Topic 3. Hyperinflation. An increase in the volume of money and credit wage and price controls.The use of government-mandated relative to available goods resulting in a major and continuing guidelines or caps on wages and prices to control inflation. rise in the general price level. World Bank. See Glossary, Topic 2.

28 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 131 Islam and politics: Egypt Algeria and Tunisia

What conditions have contributed to the recent resurgence in Islamic fundamentalism? What role will the Islamic revival play in the future of the Middle East? How does the religious revival affect U.S. interests and policies in the Middle East? at home?

ARTICLE SUMMARY surfacing with ever more frequency as a result of the often unsettling changes that have occurred in the late THE article explores the reasons for the increasing 20th century. Gradual modernization in the West involvement of Islamic groups in politics through- brought prosperity and a sense of well-being to mil- out the Middle East and North Africa, using as case lions. For Muslims of the Middle East things have studies Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia. It traces the roots been different. Modernization, in countries for the of religious revival in. the region over the past century, most part created and controlled by Europeans or their the post-World War II Muslim disillusionment with surrogates after the breakup of the Ottoman Empire, socialism, liberalism and modernity, and the wide- occurred in a short period of time and created wide spread return to Islam since the 1970s. The movement gaps between governments, leaders and the people toward Islam has for the most part been peaceful, with they ruled. Beset by a loss of self-esteem resulting such major exceptions as the Iranian revolution and from military defeats at the hands of the Israelis and the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. angered by intrusions and threats to traditional Islamic The increased participation of Islamic groups in elec- values by an invading Western culture, more and more tions is noted. Among the major reasons for their Islamic intellectuals, clergy and laity turned to religion popularity are repressive governments, poverty and as a source of inspiration and identity. This Islamic lack of jobs, and an absence of secular alternatives. resurgence is part of a broader movement that includes The author weighs whether the Islamic revival repre- Hindu, Eastern Orthodox, Jewish and Protestant con- sents a threat to U.S. interests and also considers stituencies around the world. alternative policies for combating militant, anti-West- ern groups, including encouraging U.S. friends in the The internal strife and debate within Middle East- region to undertake economic and social reforms. ern nations experiencing Islamic revival have helped fuel profound political and moral concerns throughout ACTIVITY the region and beyond. The end of the cold war and the progress in the negotiations between the Arabs and Overview Israelis have created considerable opportunities for More and more people in the Middle East and other peace in the area. However, there are also portents of developing regions believe that preparing for the fu- instability. The U.S. and the West are apprehensive ture means looking to the past. This sentiment is about the Islamist call for a return to the ways of the

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 29 132 TOPIC 7 ACTIVITY BOOK

past and about recent incidents of terrorism and vio- Then turn the discussion to Islam. Ask them why lence associated with religious extremists. there has been a renewed interest in and revival of traditional Islam, particularly in the Middle East. Be The U.S. is committed to promoting democracy and sure to have them suggest conditions, problems or human rights, but when it comes to North Africa's issues in the modern world that have contributed to this Islamist movements, it has supported their repression revival. List the responses on the chalkboard and ask by authoritarian, pro-American governments. As the participants to explain how or why Islamists believe Islamic resurgence advances and recedes in nations that Islam will solve or ameliorate these problems. such as Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, the U.S. must weigh the cost of defending religious freedom vs. the Divide the participants into three groups represent- cost of defending authoritarian governments. How ing Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia. Tell them they have 10 will the Islamic revival affect the future of the people minutes to prepare brief descriptions of social, eco- of the Middle East? How will political, social and nomic and political conditions in their nation and the economic development affect this revival? What im- approaches Islamists have taken in dealing with these pact, if any, will the rapprochement between Arabs issues. Ask them to explain how the Islamic movement and Israelis have on this process? What role will U.S. began in their nation and to list the principles ofand the policiesand cultureplay in these events? methods used by the Islamists to win support. After about 10 minutes, call them back together and ask each Objectives. group to describe the situation in its nation, making sure that they include descriptions of government Upon completion, participants will be able to: policies and government reactions to the Islamists as 1. Explain why many communities in the Middle well as significant events that have occurred. Write East are turning to Islam as a social, economic their descriptions on the chalkboard and, when they and political force. have finished, ask them to compare the three countries. Get them to agree on the similarities and differences 2. Discuss the conditions that contributed to the between conditions in the three countries. Then ask development of Islam as a sociopolitical force them to compare these specific situations with the in the Middle East. general principles and ideas they discussed about the 3. Discuss how current developments in the Middle rise of Islam at the beginning of the activity. Ask them, East can or will affect U.S. policy and U.S. on the basis of what they have done, to predict and security. describe what they believe will be the principal role of Islam in future conflicts and whether or not they Materials believe other predominantly Islamic nations will follow similar patterns of religious revival and struggle. Chalkboard, chalk Ask them ifthey believe this will foster extremism and violence throughout the area or if they believe, that Time differences can be reconciled through peaceful means. Approximately 45 minutes Point out some of the recent developments in the peace process between Arabs and Israelis and ask them to Procedure speculate on how this will affect Islamic fundamental- Begin the discussion by asking the participants how ism in the region. they would define "religion." List the world's major End the discussion by asking them what effects, if religions on the chalkboard and ask the class what role any, the Islamic revival will have on future U.S. these movements play in the lives of most of their policies regarding the spread of democracy and human followers throughout the world. Ask them to describe rights, support for friendly governments or access to the influence of religion on the lives ofmost Americans. the petroleum in the area. Ask them what, if anything, Cite the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the U.S. can or should do to influence Islamic move- ask them to describe its purpose. Ask them what they ments and to avoid becoming a target of hostility, believe would be the effect if it were repealed. violence or terrorism.

30 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 133 ionic ACTIVITY BOOK 7 GLOSSARY

Amnesty International (AI). Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, Iranian hostage crisis. In 1979, tensions between the U.S. and Al works for the release of prisoners of conscience, fair and the Islamic fundamentalist rulers in Iran rose when the exiled prompt trial for political prisoners, and the end of torture and shah was admitted into the U.S. for medicl treatment. In executions. November 1979, Iranian students seized the U.S. embassy in Teheran and held 63 members of the embassy staff hostage. Axis forces. This coalition of armies in World War II (1939- They demanded the return of the shah to Iran. The hostage 45) was headed by Germany, Italy and Japan. It was opposed crisis received almost continual television and press coverage and defeated by the Allied powers, headed by the U.S., Britain, and contributed heavily to President Jimmy Carter's defeat in China and the Soviet Union. the 1980 election. The hostages were released at the time of the Camp David Accords. This popular name for the 1979 peace inauguration of his successor, Ronald Reagan. treaty between Israel and Egypt was named for the U.S. Koran. The sacred book of Islam, it was revealed by Allah to presidential retreat in Maryland where agreement was reached. the Prophet Muhammad in separate revelations at Mecca and Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt and agreed to negotiate Medina during the Prophet's life. Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Egypt recognized the state of Israel. Mecca. The birthplace and perpetual shrine of Islam. Devotees everywhere turn to face this holy city to perform the ritual capitalism. An economic system, based on open competition in prayer as established in the days of Muhammad. a free market, in which the means of production and distribution are privately owned and growth results from the accumu- Ottoman Empire. See Glossary, Topic 1: "Ottoman dynasty." lation and reinvestment of profits. Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Created by the Arab communism. See Marxism, Topic 6. League in 1964 as an umbrella organization for various Pales- tinian groups, the PLO is the leading spokesman for the cultural imperialism. When artifacts of one society, such as Palestinian cause. Its longtime leader is Yasir Arafat. It re- music, cinema, fashion, etc., along with values and mores, are cently agreed to renounce terrorism and to recognize the right transported to another society as a result of political or eco- of Israel to exist, and it is negotiating for Israeli withdrawal nomic exchanges or commerce and threaten to overwhelm the from Jericho and the Gaza Strip. local culture, members of the latter may complain of cultural imperialism. protectorate. A relationship by which a weaker state or political entity places itself under the protection of a more powerful Gaza. A densely populated, poverty-stricken strip of land on state and accepts the direction of its foreign affairs by the latter, the southeastern Mediterranean Sea that has been occupied by while retaining some powers of self-government. This rela- Israel since 1967. Three quarters of the population are Palestin- tionship developed as a result of expansionist policies under ian refugees. European colonial rule in Africa and Asia. global village. A term coined by a world-renowned communi- secularism. The indifference to or the rejection of religion and cation theorist, Herbert Marshall McLuhan. He contended that religious consideration in personal and public affairs. the electronic media, especially television, were transforming the world technologically into a global village in which books socialism. See Glossary, Topic 6: "Socialists." would become obsolete. Third World. See Glossary, Topic 3. guerrilla army. Members of highly mobile, independent bands United Nations Development Program. See Glossary, whose war tactics are based on harassment, sabotage and Topic 3. surprise attacks. West Bank. The territory west of the River Jordan, inhabited by human rights. Usually defined in the West as the protection of Palestinians, which was administered by Jordan from 1948 to an individual's political and civil liberties (as in the U.S. Bill of 1967 and thereafter by Israel. Rights). Sometimes this definition is broadened to include economic and social rights, such as the right to adequate food and shelter.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 31 134 New world disorder? U.S. in search ofarole

What is the role of the US. in the world after the cold war? What are the vital interests of the U.S. and where do they lie? What are the goals of the U.S. and how can it achieve them?

ARTICLE SUMMARY have caused U.S. leaders and the general public to question American interests and goals and how to THE final chapter is an essay by James Chace, achieve them. Should the U.S. promote democracy editor of World Policy Journal and Henry Luce and provide humanitarian aid to the world? Should it Professor in Freedom of Inquiry and Expression at do so at the expense of American lives? Bard College. After taking the reader on a tour of the new world disorder, including the trouble spots docu- In the Balkans, NATO failed to respond to the mented in the first seven articles, Chace conducts a forces of fragmentation. The political unity of Yugo- search for the U.S. role in the post-cold-war world. He slavia has been undone by ethnic, cultural and na- calls on the Clinton Administration to define U.S. tionalist movements that produce increasing levels of national interests and provides some guidelines of his division and discord. Some countries have split apart; own. According to Chace, America's vital interests others seek inclusion in Europe. Germany, Europe's are likely to remain the stability of Europe, the balance dominant power, has pursued monetary policies that of power in East Asia and the Western Pacific, and the have caused division on the continent. economic and military security of North America. The Asian-Pacific region also poses problems and These goals and the strategies devised to implement them, Chace concludes, must be tied to the larger challenges that must be considered when defining U.S. interests: U.S. trade imbalances with Japan and interest of promoting global growth and equity. other area economies; concern over human rights in ACTIVITY China and nuclear programs in North Korea; questions about the proper level of U.S. military forces; Japa- Overview nese rearmament; the future projection ofpower by the The proper role for the U.S. after the collapse of the People's Republic of China; and Russia's role in the Soviet Union in 1991 continues to be the subject of region. intense debate. With the demise of the international The world appears to be moving toward the creation order created at the end of World War II, new tensions of three great trading blocs, Europe, East Asia and the and conflicts have emerged that require a rearrange- Western Hemisphere. This could bring about an ex- ment and redefinition of priorities and policies. pansion of global trade or lead to acrimonious trade Recent U.S. difficulties with Haiti and Somalia wars that threaten global prosperity. The recently 32 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 135 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 8 concluded North American Free Trade Agreement Write the following on the chalkboard: "Panama between the U.S., Canada and Mexico could encourage (General Noriega)," "Gulf War (Saddam Hussein)," trade and lead to a hemisphere-wide free-trade area. "Haiti (Jean-Bertrand Aristide)," and "Somalia (Mohammed Aidid)," and ask them what actions the How important is European stability to the U.S.? U.S. took in these matters and what the purpose of the What are U.S. priorities in East Asia and the Western action was. Write a very brief description of U.S. Pacific? What is required for the U.S. to promote and actions under each heading. Point out that these ac- maintain the economic and military security of North tions are post-cold-war initiatives on the part of the America? How should the U.S. define its vital interests? U.S. Ask them to use only these initiatives to create a general description of what the basic policy and inter- Objectives ests of the U.S. appear to be in the post-cold-war Upon completion, participants will be able to: world. After they have done this, ask them if they 1. Describe present conditions and trends in Eu- believe that this represents the true vital interests of the rope, East Asia and North America. U.S. and, if not, why the U.S. took the action that it did. 2. Discuss how vital interests are defined and Turn the discussion to Europe, East Asia and the addressed in the formulation of U.S. foreign Western Pacific, and the Western Hemisphere. Ask policy. them to describe problems in each of these areas in turn and why they believe that they do or do not involve the 3. Explain why they do or do not believe that vital interests of the U.S. Ask them to discuss what the European stability, the power balance in East U.S. should do in order to address these concerns. Ask Asia and the Western Pacific, and North Ameri- them to compare these suggestions with the type of can economic and military security are vital actions described previously. Ask them whether they interests. now have a different view about why the U.S. took these actions. Ask them whether or not they believe the Materials actions have helped or harmed our ability to define and Chalk, chalkboard formulate a foreign policy that centers around our vital interests. Ask them whether or not the U.S. should Time involve itself in similar activities in the future and under what circumstances. Approximately 45 minutes Turn the discussion to how foreign policy is formu- Procedure lated. Ask them what they believe can and must be Begin the discussion by asking the participants if they done to improve the level of debate and discussion agree with some Americans that the U.S. has a special about foreign affairs and a consensus on U.S. vital role and mission in the world. Ask them what that role interests. End the discussion by asking them what they and mission are and whether or not they believe the can do as individuals to help promote this process in U.S. is carrying them out properly. their community.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 33 136 TOPIC ACTIVITY BOOK 8 GLOSSARY

Austro-Hungarian Empire. See Glossary, Topic 1: "Habsburg Maastricht treaty. A treaty signed in December 1991 in the dynasty." Dutch city of Maastricht to complete the European Community's economic integration by establishing a single currency and a authoritarianism. The concentration of power in the hands of central bank. The treaty also calls for closer political integra- a leader or group of leaders who is not responsible to the tion, through common foreign and security policies. Ratifica- people. tion of the treaty by the 12 member states led to the creation of European Community (EC). See Glossary, Topic 3. the European Union in 1993.

European Monetary System (EMS). Adopted by the EC in market economy. See Glossary, Topic 1. 1979, the EMS established a European currency association Ottoman Empire. See Glossary, Topic 1: "Ottoman dynasty." and a mechanism to prevent wide fluctuations among members' currencies. Pax Americana. Peace guaranteed by the U.S. as a military superpower. America's overwhelming superiority makes it General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)An organi- less likely that any nation will challenge it or launch a major zation established in Geneva in 1947 to promote world trade war. through the reduction of trade barriers. The 107 countries participating in the talks represent over 80% of world trade. Tiananmen Square. See Glossary, Topic 4.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). See Glossary, Topic 4. World Bank. See Glossary, Topic 2.

34 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 13d TOPIC HANDOUT #1 HandoutonYugoslavia

Slovenia Croatia Bosnia-Herzegovina Yugoslavia

1. List foreign patrons, if any.

2. Are there major internal conflicts in this state?

3. State briefly the status of military activity.

4. Give name and terms of international accords applied to this situation.

ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 138 35 TOPIC HANDOUT #2 2 HandoutonSouth Africa

SEGREGATION: separation of a race, class or ethnic APARTHEID: a policy of segregation and political group by enforced residence in a restricted area, by and economic discrimination against non-European barriers to social interaction, by separate educational groups in the Republic of South Africa facilities or other means

1. How was this policy enforced in the past?

SEGREGATION APARTHEID

2. What specific reforms were instituted to help bring about changes in this policy? SEGREGATION APARTHEID

36 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 139 Handoutonthe Environment

NAME OF YOUR GROUP (Check one) 0 Europe 0 United Nations CI U.S. II NGOs CI Other

1. List the environmental problems of the former Soviet bloc that you believe are the gravest threats to the earth, beginning with the most serious. Most serious

Least serious

2. What measures or actions would your group like to see taken in order to eliminate these problems in the former Soviet bloc?

3. Explain what role, if any, you would like to see your group play in dealing with this problem.

4. Explain who you believe should pay the costs of carrying out this program. Be sure to include why you believe they should pay.

.1. ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 37 Handoutonthe Pacific Rim

'our nation or group ize of population 'ype of government Describe the economic system

live the special features, if any, of your economic system

low does your average GNP growth compare with other world areas?

Vhat are the major reasons for this growth?

Describe the present trade policy of your nation or group

What is the status of your nation? (Check one.) 0 Industrial nation 0 Developing nation live reasons for your choice.

1 g 1 38 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 HandoutonU.S. Defense

describe what you believe should be the proper U.S. military presence and role in the following areas ietween now and the year 2000. Be sure to state the reason for your answer. Europe (NATO):

['he Pacific Rim:

The Persian Gulf:

Central and South America:

kfrica:

2.In support of your answers above, describe why you would or would not increase or decrease your support for the following items: Total amount of military spending

Number of military personnel on active duty

MoneyMoney spent for retraining of defense workers and conversion of defense industries

Number of long-range nuclear missiles

4 a BOOK 1994 39 lOPIC HANDOUT #6 6 HandoutonArgentina, Brazil, Chile

CHECK YOUR COUNTRY CI Argentina CI Brazil 0 Chile

1. Describe the political traditions.

2. What conditions caused the military to seize control of the state?

3. What aspects of military rule contributed to removing the military from power?

4. What problems exist that might lead to a military seizure of power in the future?

5. What do you predict to be the chances for a return to military rule in the near future? (Choose one and give the reasons for your choice.) CI Very possible (likely to occur) 0 Possible (could occur) 0 Not very possible (unlikely to occur)

40 ACTIVITY BOOK 1994 143 FPA publications

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This 422- iFFAIRS complex world issues understandable CP ' and those surround- page resource ....,..-.. 1+ to students and the general reader and ing NAFTA, both includes there and in the United States." chapters on by the Editors of the are used in schools, colleges and Foreign Policy Association universities, and by the public-at- Sidney Weintraub international large. Dean Rusk Professor, Lyndon B. business, Johnson School of Public Affairs, banking and finance, international law, University of Texas, Austin translation and interpretation, journalism and consulting, nonprofit organizations, GREAT DECISIONS "I am writing to HEADLINE. SERIES the U.S. government and the United ROMIG. TIDES congratulate you on IN Olt ARAD WORLD Nations and other international organiza- .... These discussions are quite spirited the outstanding tions, as well as job-hunting strategies, and I am sure you would appreciate the publication in your teaching abroad, and internships and varied opinions of the group. We, in turn, Headline Series graduate programs in international affairs. thank you for the excellent articles that 'Political Tides in stimulate our intellect and increase our the Arab World.'... "I have used the Guide to Careers in understanding of the important issues The...students... World Affairs in my International Careers facing our country." unanimously classes at San Francisco State for several Discussion group participant declared it the best years. It is the best. I...am recommending it Boca Raton, Florida book they had read to all who wish to consider international during the entire semester.... In short, I careers." "Once again the members of our discus- simply wanted you to know how outstand- Urban Whitaker sion group wish to express...our apprecia- ing this piece is and to congratulate you The Learning Center tion for a superb job of producing the for having the foresight to publish it." San Francisco State University GREAT DECISIONSbriefing book. The 1993 Jerrold D. Green edition was, we are sure, one of the most Director and Associate Professor of challenging editions yet, with the rapidly Political Science, Center for Middle changing international situation...." Eastern Studies, University of Arizona, A Cartoon History of United Discussion group leader Tucson States Foreign Policy: Tucson, Arizona From 1945 to the Present HEADLINE SERIES "Steve Goldstein's CHINA AT TO GREAT DECISIONS... CROSSROADS: analysis of the "A few deft Special Supplements major trends in lines, a word or China since the two, and a little IVideotapes Tiananmen crisis in drawing by the 11110 1989, and his right man or Videotapes of the eight-part TV series discussion of the based on the 1994, 1993, 1992 and 1991 woman can be implications of worth more than GREAT DECISIONStopics are available for these trends for purchase on 1/2" VHS tapes. Sold as sets a thousand American policy, words or a of four or eight half-hour programs for are comprehensive, each year. thousand pages illuminating and balanced.... Americans of analysis. .. . Audiocassettes now need to examine post-Tiananmen The cartoonist is China dispassionately; Goldstein's study simply the Audiocassettes with readings of the will help them do so." articles in the 1993 and 1992 editions of shortest distance between one point and GREAT DECISIONSare available. Sold as A. Doak Barnett one citizen." sets of eight tapes for each year. China-born political scientist, From the introduction to the book by educator, author; senior fellow Richard Reeves, author and syndicated To order FPA materials or emeritus, The Brookings Institution columnist. to request a free catalogue, contact: These lively and provocative pocket-size This latest FPA cartoon book features Foreign Policy Association publications on current world topics are more than 200 cartoons by America's c/o CUP Services published four times a year. Written by rec- leading cartoonists, past and present, P.O. Box 6525 ognized foreign policy scholars and other accompanied by text that sets the scene Ithaca, N.Y. 14851 experts, they are usually 64 to 72 pages and offers a vivid portrait of U.S. politics or call toll-free 800-477-5836 long. at home and abroad. 144 For 75 years, the Foreign Policy Association has served our O nation by educating our public and stimulating informed debate on the complex issues we face. With the cold war ended and a new era upon us, your role is even more important. As weseek to meet the challenges of this momentous period of change, I congratulate all of you for this important contribution.

AtA Bill Clinton, 1993

George Bush, 1989

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