January-April 2018
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INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES AND ANALYSES eekly E-BULLETINE-BULLETIN PAKISTAN PROJECT w January-April 2018 This E-Bulletin focuses on major developments in Pakistan on a weekly basis and brings them to the notice of strategic analysts and policy makers in India. EDITOR'S NOTE COMMENTARY akistan is witnessing upheaval on several fronts. Balochistan and the Senate Elections in PWhile the conflict between the judiciary and Pakistan: A Prelude to the Upcoming government continues, with several cases pending Elections against the Sharif family, the civil-military relations are not at their best. To add to the crisis, the Pashtun Yaqoob ul Hassan* movement for justice against the targeted killings, All the major political parties of Pakistan are gearing up missing persons and terror profiling of the community, for the upcoming general elections. Alliances are made has pitted the group against the Army. Though dialogue either to thwart any particular party's electoral prospect between the agitating Pashtuns and the army is yet to or to make inroads to a constituency where they lack materialize, in several areas, the army has handed over popular support. A few political developments that took the administration to the civilian government after place over the last couple of months that has set the clearing the area of terrorists. Nawaz Sharif has been precedence for the next general elections. These disqualified and Shahbaz Sharif is projected as the next developments are the change of government in Prime Ministerial candidate from the party. After the Baluchistan and the Senate elections where allegations controversial Senate elections, all the political parties were made regarding switching of loyalties . are gearing towards the next general election. In the meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif's interview to Dawn indicating Baluchistan saw a strange bit of political theatre where the Pakistani establishment's hand in the Mumbai election engineering and echoes of political interference carnage put the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML- were heard in the power corridors of Islamabad. The N) in a difficult position. The party finally rejected government of chief minister Nawwab Sanaullah Zehri Sharif's charges as the army pressed for a meeting of was toppled by his own party members. According to the National Security Council. media reports, Pakistan's Prime Minister Khakan Abbasi was told by his civilian agency in advance that 'people' This issue of the bulletin combines news items of the are out to remove Zehri from the position. Zehri tried past four months, from January to April 2018. There to sort out the deal but was told 'resign gracefully or are three interesting commentaries on important issues fight it out and go disgracefully, take your pick'1. confronting Pakistan, especially the domestic political Disheartened, Zehri reached out to Nawaz Sharif and dynamics that are captured well in these articles focusing PM Abbasi for help. According to Murtaza Solangi, a on the Senate elections, the politics within the Mohajir prominent journalist, a federal minister from Baluchistan Quami Movement (MQM) and the crisis within the was sent to GHQ to do some fire-fighting. He was told PML-N. that they have nothing to do with it. But next day, Zehri's close confidantes were picked up and corruption charges against him made rounds on TV channels. A motion of 1 no-confidence against Zehri was filed by the 14 members 2018 election by publicly being seen together. According among them were members from Pakistan Muslim to media reports, someone from power corridors in League-Q (PML-Q), National Party (NP)( interesting Islamabad floated the idea of using Bizenjo as a mediator to note here that NP's president, Mir Hasil Bizenjo, between Imran Khan and Asif Zardari2. although lent Zehri a helping hand and assured him his party's support but one of his own party's MPA' Khalid Senate elections 2018 will be remembered for rampant Langove, was one of the 14 signatories on the motion horse-trading in all four provincial assemblies. PPP got against Zehri) The other dissidents were from its senators elected from KP and Sindh by relying on Baluchistan National Party Chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal, support from members who do not belong to the party, Awami National Party (ANP) leader, Zamarak Achakzai whereas PTI got surprisingly one senator from Punjab AND Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen legislator Aga Raza. Assembly which was above its due share in that assembly. The PTI's total strength in Punjab Assembly is 33 Notwithstanding, apart from seeing very ineffective and members whereas PMLN- has 310. The PMLN had 33 powerless chief minister, Zehri's major mistake was seats while as PPP and PTI managed to get 21 and 12 standing by and supporting Nawaz Sharif in an on-going seats respectively from Sindh, KP and Punjab. With six confrontation with the judiciary and the military. A no- senators from Baluchistan, eight independent Senators confidence motion against Zehri was a well-thought out from FATA, the PTI and PPP together succeeded plan of power manoeuvring and the timing was very electing their own chairman and deputy chairman. Most important. It also has far-reaching impact on the national of the MPA's in four assembles voted outside the party level politics. The target was not Zehri himself, rather it in large numbers. Vicious electioneering took place, was Nawaz Sharif. It was deliberately done to reduce according to media, money and other benefits, perks the party's strength in the forthcoming Senate election privileges played a significant role in Senate elections. that was due. The military establishment did not want to see Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) getting Generally, it has been seen in Pakistan that the smaller a majority in Senate. If it does, Nawaz may find it easy parties and independent candidates particularly from the to change the legislation that would make his return to FATA region incline towards the military establishment. power easy. The 11 Senators from Baluchistan were The other reason why PMLN failed in putting together supposed to retire in March and there was an a viable coalition of smaller parties and independents, opportunity for the ruling party PMLN to increase its primarily because of anti-establishment narrative Senate membership. Although, it had only 21 legislators adopted by Nawaz Sharif that put them in a tough out of the total 65 members, in the legislative assembly, position. therefore, retaining the power was imperative to elect Learning from the Baluchistan, that military is all out to its Senators. Zehri's was replaced by Abdul Quddus defeat the PMLN, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman of the Bizenjo of the PML-Q who was elected as a member Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam- Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F) came up of the provincial assembly from Awaran District by 500 with the proposal that both PPP and PMLN should votes in the wake of a boycott of elections by Baloch form an alliance and elect Raza Rabbani as chairman. nationalist insurgents. By toppling Zehri's led PMLN According to media sources, Nawaz agreed on Rabbani's government, the PMLN was deprived of six Senators candidature and even other parties such as National Party from Baluchistan by breaking up the coalition. (NP), Pukhtunkhawa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) and While the tone was set for the Senate elections, but no JUI-F also supported the idea. It is also believed that one had expected that both Pakistan People's Party PPP chairman, Bilawal Bhutto also tried hard to (PPP) and Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf (PTI) will come persuade Zardari to change his mind and accept Raza together to defeat PMLN, despite the two parties being Rabbani for the top slot. "Zardari knew better to stick at loggerheads. The new Chief Minister of Baluchistan, to the Milablishment (military establishment) that has Abdul Quddus Bizenjo, was assigned the job to bring been speaking against the 18th Amendment and its PPP and PTI together, whose leaders were reluctant to architect Rabbani. Zardari not only stuck to his guns come out in open supporting each other in Senate but forced Bilawal to make the unpopular announcement elections as no one wanted to damage the prospects of of bowing before the Askari group (Askari means 2 military. The term is sarcastically used against Baluchistan position and agenda, which is further confusing their Chief Minister and his senators who toppled Zehri's respective vote banks. government ostensibly under the guidance of army) and demoting Saleem Mandviwalla as the deputy chairman"3. No compromise seems to be emerging between the Both PPP and PTI agreed on the candidature of Sadiq factions at the moment. Earlier efforts at reunification Sanjrani as the chairman of the Senate. Although it is turned out to be futile efforts. The main faction, MQM unlikely that both PPP and PTI will come together for (P) headed by Farooq Sattar has not been able to any seat adjustment or alliance in the forthcoming overcome the crisis that began at the time of issuing general elections, nevertheless, "The die was cast. The tickets for the Senate elections in February 2018 which umpire had ensured that the victory of the coalition had severe electoral ramifications. For example, the party and the Noon saw (referred here PML-N party its worst could got just one Senate member elected while it was afternoon. The rest, as they say, is history" said Solongi. expecting to elect four. This has made reconciliation By succeeding to replace the Chief Minister in between the Pir Ilahi Buksh colony (PIB), the head- Baluchistan assembly and Senate elections, the military quarter of Farooq Sattar's faction and Bahadurabad, the has made it again clear that the institutional hegemony head-quarter of Dr.