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DEWR AGO. 2007. Australia CC & Building Adaptation.Pdf An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings for the Unavoidable Consequences of Climate Change An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 II An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings for the Unavoidable Consequences of Climate Change Final Report August 2007 Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources by BRANZ Limited III An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 Published by the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources. © Commonwealth of Australia, 2007 ISBN: 978-1-921297-64-9 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth, available from the Department of the Environment and Water Resources. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Director Climate Change Communications Department of the Environment and Water Resources GPO Box 787 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Copies of this document may be obtained by phoning the AGO Infoline on 1300 130 606. This document is also available on the intranet at: www. greenhouse.gov.au Questions or comments about the content of this document should be addressed to: Assistant Secretary Land Management and Science Branch Department of the Environment and Water Resources GPO Box 787 CANBERRA ACT 2601 IMPORTANT NOTICE – PLEASE READ The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment and Water Resources. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. Final Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources by BRANZ Limited Authors: Lynda Amitrano (BRANZ), Rachel Hargreaves (BRANZ), Ian Page (BRANZ), Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO), Trevor Lee (Energy Partners), Mark Snow (Energy Partners), Les Winton (Artcraft Research), Rosalie Woodruff (NCEPH), Tord Kjellstrom (NCEPH) Reviewer: Rachel Hargreaves Please note: This report is published in two parts to enable easy access on the internet. Part 1 is the actual report, while Part 2 contains the appendices to the report. Both parts should be read in conjunction with the other. The report is designed to be printed double-sided in colour. This document is Part 1 – The report. IV An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is likely to affect buildings in a range of ways that have potential implications for both the existing building stock and the design of new buildings. This study is a first step in examining the capacity of Australia’s building stock and building practices to maintain current levels of amenity in the face of a changing climate and the scope to consider changes in building practices to adapt to climate change. Climate change There is now overwhelming evidence that anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses is changing the world’s climate. Average global surface temperatures have increased by 0.6°C since 1900 and average surface temperatures in Australia have increased by about 0.7°C over the same period. The complexity of the climate system and uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions make prediction of the future climate impossible. However, projections of future climate change can be made using climate models based on the physics of the climate system together with scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. These are indications of the changes we might expect under different scenarios rather than predictions of what will happen. Climate projections for Australia point to higher temperatures, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency or intensity of a number of extreme events. Projections of rainfall are less certain, and trends are expected to be different in different parts of Australia. However, expected increases in evaporation suggest that soils will dry and stream-flow may be reduced even in places where rainfall increases modestly. This study was based on climate projections for 2030 and 2070 for thirteen locations chosen to span seven of the eight climate zones used by the Australian Building Codes Board. The locations were Darwin and Cairns (zone 1), Brisbane and the Gold Coast (zone 2), Alice Springs (zone 3), Mildura (zone 4), Adelaide, Sydney and Perth (zone 5), Melbourne (zone 6), Hobart and Canberra (zone 7). The climate projections used in this study are summarised in Table 1. 1 An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 Table 1: Summary of Climate Change Factors. FACTOR PARAMETER CHANGE REGIONAL IMPACT 2030 2070 Temperature Annual average +0.4 to + 2.0°C +1.0 to +6.0°C Temperature increases in most areas Extreme daily events +10 to +100% +20 to +600% More hot events in most (above 35°C) locations Extreme daily events -20 to -80% -50 to -100% Fewer cold events in most (below 0°C) locations Rainfall Summer / Autumn -10 to +10% -35 to +35% More summer rain in the north and east, more autumn rain inland, summer and autumn rain in the south Winter / Spring -10 to +5% -35 to +10% Less rainfall in most locations, but increased winter rain in Tasmania Cyclones Peak winds +2 to +5% +5 to +10% Generally higher in most locations Daily rainfall Peak rainfall +10 to +15% +20 to +30% Intensity (1 in 20 yr up to +10% (SA) +5 to +50% (NSW) Increased daily rainfall event) (2050) intensity at most locations +5 to +70% (Vic) (2050) up to +30% (Qld) (2040) Extreme winds (over Generally more in most 95th percentile) areas, all seasons Relative Annual and seasonal -3 to 0% -9 to 0% Generally decreased most Humidity average areas Radiation Annual average -5 to 0% -15 to 0% Generally decreased (summer/autumn), generally increased (winter/ 0 to +5% 0 to +15% spring) Flooding Sea-level rise 3-17 cm 7-52 cm Whole coastline Storm tide height (1 in +0.4 to 0.7 m Increases in flooding and 100 yr event) (Cairns) (2050) landslides in some areas Hail Frequency Possible decreases in SE Australia. Possible increases over Sydney Fire Fire Danger Index +5 to +20% (ACT) Generally increase most areas (linked with increases in very hot days and decreased humidity) 2 An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 Possible effects on buildings increased cracking of drier soils and from increased ground movement impacting on foundations and pipe Many buildings erected today will still be in use in 40 – work 60 years. It is therefore important to consider the likely effect of climate changes expected over this period on the • increased damage from flooding structure and functionality of buildings being constructed • increased bushfire risk now. Energy modelling conducted as part of this study shows an The main impacts of climate change with implications for increased cooling load for all locations, offset by decreased Australian buildings are: heating loads for locations in cooler climate zones (see • increased energy consumption due to higher Figure 1). The results are similar for office buildings, except temperatures that offsets due to reduced heating loads in cooler climates are less significant due to the high internal loads from • health effects of over-heating equipment and lighting (see Figure 2). • increased risk of damage from more intense tropical cyclones and storms and stronger winds, and from Average Annual Energy Consumption (2005 vs 2070 High) 1600 Ave Total Latent Cooling (MJ/m2) 1400 Ave Total Sensible Cooling (MJ/m2) Ave Heating (MJ/m2) 1200 1000 800 600 Energy (MJ/m²) 400 200 0 Alice Perth Coffs Cairns Hobart Darwin Mildura Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Melbourne Sydney East Location Figure 1: Simulated Average Energy Consumption of Seven base house types (including one apartment). For comparison purposes, the simulated energy performance results have been graphed against the Energy Consumption Comparison 1000 900 800 700 COOL REJECT 600 FANS 500 HEAT 400 MIS C HOT WATER 300 L IF TS 200 EQUIPMT 100 L IGHTS Annual Energy (MJ/m²) 0 PCA 2005 2070 PCA 2005 2070 Darwin Darwin Darwin PCA 2005 2070 Sydney Sydney Sydney Canberra Canberra Canberra Location Figure 2: Simulated Energy End use Consumption of 10-Storey Offices in Key Locations. 3 An assessment of the need to adapt buildings for the unavoidable consequences of climate change Aust. Greenhouse Office Dept of the Environment and Water Resources 2007 respective energy performance targets published by the due to lack of information about the stock of buildings. Property Council of Australia (PCA), (Energy Guidelines Good maintenance and, where appropriate, upgrading is 2001). the key to resilience for older buildings. Deciding whether to upgrade older buildings to increase resilience to the More frequent hot spells could have significant health impacts of climate change will depend on a combination of implications because elevated temperatures over extended considerations including the expected life of the building, periods stress the cardiovascular system, especially significance of the building, cost and the risk.
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