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Majid Eskafi-Dissertation-2021 Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process: An Icelandic Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network Majid Eskafi Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Iceland 2021 Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process: An Icelandic Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network Majid Eskafi Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Environmental Engineering Ph.D. Committee Prof. Guðmundur Freyr Úlfarsson (Chair) Dr. Ali Dastgheib Dr. Poonam Taneja Prof. Gunnar Stefánsson Prof. Ragnheiður Inga Þórarinsdottir Opponents Prof. Hercules E. Haralambides Prof. Lóránt Tavasszy Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavik, June 2021 Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process: An Icelandic Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network Adaptive Port Planning. Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of a Philosophiae Doctor degree in Environmental Engineering Copyright © 2021 Majid Eskafi All rights reserved. Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland VR-II, Hjardarhagi 2-6 IS-107, Reykjavik Iceland Telephone: 525 4000 Bibliographic information: Eskafi, M., 2021, Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process: An Icelandic Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network, Ph.D. dissertation, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland, 217 pp. ISBN: 978-9935-9579-9-3 Author ORCID: 0000-0002-4697-4754 Printing: Haskolaprent ehf. Reykjavik, Iceland, June 2021 Abstract Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, black-swan events, for instance, the financial crisis in 2008, the avalanche in Flateyri (Iceland) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 make successful port planning a challenging task. Indeed, the ever-increasing complexity of a port system and its long technical lifetime make uncertainty considerations inevitable in the planning process. Therefore, this research presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties, including opportunities and vulnerabilities, in the port planning process. To this end, a structured stakeholder analysis is performed to effectively and timely engage stakeholders in the planning process. Fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface is used to identify the salient stakeholders. Subsequently, the success of the future port is defined in terms of the specific objectives of the stakeholders. To develop this definition, a problem structuring method and fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method are synthesized. Then, a port throughput forecast is conducted that accounts for epistemic uncertainty, including model and parameters uncertainties, and thus increases the reliability of forecast results. The method identifies the influencing macroeconomic variables on port throughput by mutual information and then applies the Bayesian statistical method to forecast the port throughput. Effective actions are planned to seize opportunities and manage vulnerabilities that manifest in the projected lifetime. Therefore, the port can adapt or better withstand the vagaries of the future. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty and facilitates adaptive port planning. The framework is applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results indicate that the uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-time horizon, while in the middle-time horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities. Útdráttur Hið öfluga og sívaxandi flókna eðli hafnarkerfa í margbreytilegum heimi skapar mikla óvissu varðandi þróunaráætlanir hafna. Enn fremur þá leiða óvæntir atburðir, svonefndir svartir svanir, eins og til dæmis efnahagshrunið 2008, snjóflóðið á Flateyri 2020 og COVID-19 faraldurinn, til þess að skipulagsgerð hafna er sérstaklega krefjandi verkefni sem er háð mikilli óvissu. Flækjustig hafnarkerfa og óvissa á löngum líftíma hafna gerir það óumflýjanlegt að taka tillit til óvissu í skipulagsferlinu. Þessi rannsókn setur fram skipulagsramma til að takast á við óvissu, þar á meðal tækifæri og veikleika, í skipulagsferli hafnar. Þessi rannsókn kynnir skipulagða hagsmunagreiningu til að virkja hagsmunaaðila hafna tímanlega í skipulagsferlinu. Þrívíddar ákvörðunaryfirborð byggt á loðinni (e. fuzzy) rökfræði er notað til að bera kennsl á mikilvæga hagsmunaaðila með mismunandi áhrif og hagsmuni. Í kjölfarið er árangur skipulagsins skilgreindur út frá markmiðum hagsmunaaðila og með samtvinnun eldri aðferðar og loðinnar rökfræði. Notuð er aðferð við gerð spár fyrir flæði um höfnina sem tekur tillit til þekkingaróvissu og eykur þannig áreiðanleika niðurstaðna spárinnar. Aðferðin skilgreinir þjóðhagslega áhrifaþætti á afkastagetu hafna með aðferð gagnkvæmra upplýsinga (e. mutual information) og beitir síðan Bayesískri tölfræði til að spá fyrir um afköst hafnarinnar. Árangursríkar aðgerðir eiga að geta nýtt tækifæri og takmarkað veikleika á áætluðum líftíma hafnarinnar, þar sem höfnin getur aðlagast eða þolað duttlunga framtíðarinnar betur. Sá ólínuleiki í að takast á við óvissu með því að beita skipulagsrammanum stuðlar að betra hafnarskipulagi. Skipulagsamminn styður ákvarðanatöku í óvissu umhverfi með því að auðvelda sveigjanlega skipulagsgerð fyrir hafnir. Skipulagsrammanum er beitt á hafnir Ísafjarðar. Helstu niðurstöður benda til þess að óvissan feli aðallega í sér tækifæri til skamms tíma, en til lengri tíma stendur hafnarkerfið frammi fyrir veikleikum. To my beloved Family. Table of Contents Útdráttur ............................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... x List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... xii List of Publications ........................................................................................................... xiii Glossary ............................................................................................................................. xvi Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ xvii 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Developments in the Port Sectors ........................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions ................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Organization of the Dissertation .............................................................................. 5 1.4 Theory and Methods Used ...................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 Stakeholder Prioritization in the Port Planning ............................................. 9 1.4.2 Definition of Success in the Port Planning .................................................. 11 1.4.3 Port Throughput Analysis ............................................................................ 12 1.4.4 Port Throughput Forecast ............................................................................ 14 1.4.5 Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning ............................................ 15 1.5 A Case of the Ports of Isafjordur Network ............................................................ 16 2 Stakeholder Salience and Prioritization for Port Master Planning, a Case Study of the Multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland .......................................... 21 2.1 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 21 2.2 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 22 2.3 Literature Review and Research Gap .................................................................... 23 2.4 Method of Analysis and Research Design ............................................................ 26 2.4.1 Identification of Stakeholder ........................................................................ 26 2.4.2 Engagement of Stakeholder ......................................................................... 28 2.4.3 Differentiation and Grouping of Stakeholders ............................................. 29 2.4.4 Objectives of the Port Planning ................................................................... 29 2.4.5 Stakeholder Mapping ................................................................................... 30 2.5 Study Area ............................................................................................................. 35 2.6 Results and Discussion .......................................................................................... 36 2.6.1 2D Stakeholder Group Mapping of the Objective of Port Planning ............ 37 2.6.2 Transferability of Findings Based on 2D Stakeholder Group Mapping
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