potentially, it could do so again in the future on a Although in recent years the relative weight of all clined with respect to other factors influencing d change, such as the balance of natural movement population (births and deaths) and yeridah (lit. 'c Hebrew wordused to denote emigration), aliyahcon potentiallysensitive and central factor in 's10: tegic planning. AliyahreferstothemovementofJewsfromthedia. el. An analysis of the prospects for large-scale aliVe;; Mass - AThing ofthe Past? with an appraisal of its characteristics, necessitate and ramified examination. Suchan analysis should (1) the basic characteristics and trends of diaspol reservoir ofthe potential aliyah in question; (2) the major t!ends ofaliyah in the past and pres. view of Jewish immigration to Israel should also countother migratory movementswhich havetrac stitutedanimportantfactor for change inJewish SI (3) Jewish population distribution worldwide aJ Sergio DellaPergola country movementofJewsfrom the more general the political, economic and social status ofthe COUD The question ofmass aliyah, or aliyah in general (aliyah -liter­ and their interconnections; ally'ascending' - isthewordIsraelisuse to denoteimmigrationto (4) Israel'splace inthatoverallinternationalcor. Israel), isclosely bound up with one ofIsrael's paramountdemo­ (5) the dominant processes unfolding within lSI graphicpredicaments. l Because ofthe conditions in which Israel recent years, both in general terms, and with spo finds itself, great importance attaches to the rate of population immigration and immigrantabsorption. growth and changes inpopulation structure thatoccurdue to that Any survey of these diverse topics should mai: growth over time. These developments bear significant econo­ balance between, onthe one hand, a general, them mic, social, and security implications. Some examples: the tive of demographic processes, and their histori. balanc~ between different national-religious-ethnic population economiccontexts, and, ontheotherhand, thema groups In Israel and the region; various aspects relating to econo­ aspects of certain elements of these processes in t micplanningand manpowermanagement; andthe development Israeli experience. To find the middle road betw and exploitation of human resources. In the past, the scope of and the particular demands a considerable effort aliyah has profoundly affected these processes, and, at least must refrain from adopting an emotional approe intoitsreasoningexpressionsofhopesandfears, c • S. ~ella~ergola teaches intheInstituteofContemporaryJewry, TheHebrew Umverslty of . This essay was first published (in Hebrew) in' A lets its arguments be swayed by transparent pc Hareven (ed.), Towards the Year2000: Yet Another War- or Towardspea~e?' guery. Unfortunately, attitudes such as these seel Jerusalem (Van Leer JerusalemInstitute) 1988. ., ofwhatappears inthe mediaconcerningsubject: I This article was prepared within the framework of the Division of Jewish portance for Israel and for the Jewish world as a Demograph! an~ Statistics at the Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The ~ebrew u~lverslty ofJerusalem. Mr. Zvi Richterprovided much assistance In processIng ~e .data. The reader is also directed to the following articles: S. DeliaPergola, AlWah, Yeridah, andOtherDemographicProblems', inA. Har­ Aliyah and OtherJewish Migrations: General As even (ed.), Is It Really Hard to Be an Israeli? (Hebrew), Jerusalem (Van Leer J.erusalem Foundation) 1983, pp. 225-256; S. DeliaPergola, 'On the Differen­ Aliyahis usuallydescribedintermsof'waves': y. ual Frequency of Western Migration to Israel', in J. Frankel (ed.), Studies in growthintheinflowofimmigrants, followed by Contemporary Jewry, Bloomington (Indiana University Press), Vol. I, 1984, constantlyrecurringcycle. Inthe periodsincetl: pp. 292-315; S. DeliaPergola, 'Aliyah and other Jewish Migrations: Toward an Integrated Perspective', in U.O. Schmelz and G. Nathan (eds.) Studies in waves, ofwhichthe onsetparalleled Israel's ind the pOPulat~ono~Israel in Honoro/, Jerusalem (M~gnesPress, have tendedto become ever weaker. Hebrew UmversltyofJerusalem) 1986 (Scripta Hierosolymitana Vol XXX) Amore comprehensive historical perspectives pp.I72-209. ' , 97 [The Jerusalem Quarterly, Number Fifty-Qne (Summer 1989)] 30 i .....~ \

potentially, it could do so again in the future on a large scale. Although in recent years the relative weight of aliyah has de­ clined with respect to other factors influencing demographic change, such as the balance of natural movement within the population (births and deaths) and yeridah (lit. 'descent', the Hebrew word used to denote emigration), aliyahcontinuesto bea potentiallysensitive and centralfactor in Israel's long-term stra­ tegic planning. Aliyahrefers to the movementofJ ewsfromthediaspora to Isra­ iyah - AThing ofthe Past? el. An analysis of the prospects for large-scale aliyah, combined with an appraisal of its characteristics, necessitates a thorough and ramified examination. Such an analysis shouldfocus on: (1) the basic characteristics and trends of Jewry, the reservoir ofthe potential aliyahin question; (2) the major trends ofaliyah in thepast andpresent. Acorrect view of Jewish immigration to Israel should also take into ac­ countother migratory movementswhich have traditionallycon­ stituted an importantfactor for change inJewishsociety; Pergola (3) Jewish population distribution worldwide and country-to­ countrymovement ofJewsfrom the moregeneralperspective of "mass aliyah, or aliyah in general (aliyah -liter­ thepolitical, economicandsocialstatus ofthecountriesinvolved - is thewordIsraelisuse todenoteimmigrationto and their interconnections; ? bound up with one ofIsrael'sparamountdemo­ (4) Israel'splace in thatoverall international context; 1 ments. Because ofthe conditions in which Israel (5) the dominant processes unfolding within Israeli society in .t importance attaches to the rate of population recent years, both in general terms, and with special regard to 1ges inpopulation structurethatoccurdue to that immigrationand immigrantabsorption. ;e. These developments bear significant econo­ Any survey of these diverse topics should maintain a proper :I security implications. Some examples: the balance between, on the one hand, a general, theoretical perspec­ I different national-religious-ethnic population tive of demographic processes, and their historical, social, and md the region; various aspects relatingto econo- economiccontexts, and, ontheotherhand, themanifestlyunique Imanpowermanagement; andthedevelopment aspects of certain elements of these processes in the Jewish and of human resources. In the past, the scope of Israeli experience. To find the middle road between the general tundly affected these processes, and, at least and the particular demands a considerable effon. Above all, one must refrain from adopting an emotional approach that weaves chesinthe Institute ofContemporaryJewry, The Hebrew intoitsreasoningexpressionsofhopesandfears,or-worse-that ISalem. This essay was first published (in Hebrew) in: A. lets its arguments be swayed by transparent political demago­ .ardsthe Year2000: Yet Another War - orTowards Peace? ~r Jerusalem Institute) 1988. guery. Unfonunately, attitudes such as these seem to color much 'epared within the framework of the Division of Jewish ofwhatappears inthe mediaconcerningsubjects ofcardinalim­ Statistics at the Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The portance for Israel and for the Jewish world as a whole. •ofJerusalem. Mr. Zvi Richterprovided much assistance Ita. The readeris also directed to the following articles: S. Ih. Yeridah, and OtherDemographicProblems', inA. Har­ !ly Hard to Be an Israeli? (Hebrew), Jerusalem (Van Leer Aliyah and OtherJewish Migrations: General Aspects ion) 1983, pp. 225-256; S. DellaPergola, 'On the Dilferen­ 'estern Migration to Israel', in J. Frankel (ed.), Studies in Aliyahis usually describedintermsof'waves': yearsofmounting "y, Bloomington (Indiana University Press), Vol. 1, 1984, growthintheinflow ofimmigrants,followed byyearsofebb, ina laPergola, 'Aliyah and other Jewish Migrations: Toward constantlyrecurringcycle. Intheperiodsince thelargestofthese ective', in U.O. Schmelz and G. Nathan (eds.). Studies in waves, ofwhich the onsetparalleled Israel's independence, they 'ael in Honor a/RobertoBachi, Jerusalem IMagnes Press, DfJerusalem) 1986 (Scripta Hierosolymitana, Vol XXX), have tended to becomeeverweaker. Amore comprehensive historical perspective showsthataliyah em Quarterly, Number Fifty-Qne (Summer 1989)) 97

---\ Table 1 constitutedapproximately3percentofallJewishintercontinen­ talmigrationsworldwideintheperiodfrom the 1880stotheFirst Immigrants to Israel World War; about 30 per cent between 1919 and 1948; some 82 From 20 Western Countries, 1973-19l percentinthepeakyearsuntil 1951 ;and50-70percent(i.e., still Absolute Numbers and Rates Per 10,000­ the major part of Jewish migration) until the second half of the In Country o/Origin 1970s. In the past decade, aliyah has evidently regressed to less Olimpe. No.ofOlim CountrY than 50 percentoftotal Jewishmigration. (These estimatestake 1973 197 1973 1978 1983 1977 19B: into account yeridah - emigration from Israel - as a factor in 1977 1982 1986 international Jewish migration.) 10.7 9 1,573 1,452 969 5.6 4, The scale ofJewish migration, aliyah included, has tapered off 15,556 13,260 9,933 US 32.6 2L 1,141 815 573 in recent years. From the mid-1950s until the early 1980s - that Australia 541 3,218 1,416 59.6 is, following theperiodofmostintensiveaHyah - average annual S.Africa 3,357 68.7 5E 9,100 6,687 3,732 Jewish migration worldwide is estimated at about 60,000 per­ 26.0 2C 1,300 1,039 847 66.2 4~ sons. Theimmediatepasthasseena fall-offto 20,000-50,000per­ 827 426 490 Chile 34.6 2: sons per year, ofwhom 10,000-20,000 immigrated to Israel. In 605 478 532 Mexico 7­ 930 1,323 105.6 someways, thecurrentsituationresemblesthe 1920s, whenJew­ 1,849 100 139 31.6 Venezuela 253 ish migration was diffuse, and no urgent reason for mass mig­ 34.2 4 564 658 308 ration presented itself. Then, as now, migration was multi-direc­ Belgium 25.6 2. 6,862 7,492 5,577 41.4 4, tional, and - following the imposition of severe restrictions on 641 655 567 W. 19.6 2! immigration to the - the Jewish population dis­ 3,731 4,999 3,225 Britain 39.3 :;; 628 454 264 persed itself without a clearly dominant destination. Yet in the 44.3 E 666 791 538 Netherland .<;; aftermathofthe First World War, thescope ofJewishmigration 249 197 36.0 162 wasgreaterthanitistoday; and ofcourse Israel did notyetexist. 259 193 34.7 Sweden 260 434 287 45.9 A breakdown of frequency ofaliyah per 10,000 by coun­ Switzerland 459 87.7 2: tries of origin shows that aliyah from the West has consistently 965 2,487 384 Turkey . . Jerusa beenless frequent than from otherbroad areas ofthe Jewish dis­ Sources: Immigrants to Israel: Central Bureauof StaUS~~ 1a in Countries o/Origin: U.0. Schmelz, and S..De ergo_ persion, such as the , , and Eastern Eur­ . B k r;oUSlSSues 1981-­ tion';AmericanJewlsh Year 00 ,va ' ope - from those countries and in those years when Jews were enabled to leave. Today, when some 82 per cent of all diaspora Jews reside in the West, an examination of aliyah trends from ish identity, are more active in Jewish orgar country of origin, and have greater prior knov.; thosecountriesisasinequa nonforunderstandingpossiblefuture over~ .developments concerningaliyah ingeneral. Theiraverage age islowerthanthatofthe A regime offree - oralmost free - migration is the normin the tion inthe diaspora. In the past, family aHyah \ Western world. Still, striking disparities exist regarding the fre­ butrecentyearshavewitnessedaconsiderable: aHyah. l~vel quency ofaliyah from different Western countries (Table 1). The dual OHm generally have a high c period from 1953 to 1986 saw a minimal aliyah rate of0.5 oHm ever, as compared with the socio-economlc su:­ Jewry, whatis strikingis an over-represe~tatl (newimmigrants) per 10,000Jewsrecordedfor theUnitedStates ~ b~ (1953-1957), as compared with a maximum of 226.1 oHm per i.e., of those few who are still engaged 10,000 Jews from Turkey (1978-1982) and 122.5 per 10,000 manual labor. Also very strikingamong ohm] commer~ from Uruguay (1983-1986). If we rank Western countries representationofpersons engaged in se~. according to aliyah rates, considerable consistency is apparent From all points of view, the processes of e~ over time, notwithstanding certain fluctuations. This finding aliyah promote an intensification of the points to the need to consider events outside Israel as an initial betweenthe Jewish populationin Israeland I explanationfor aliyah trends. At the same time, the influence ofincentives which are at work 'Business as usual' primarilyinIsraelareclearly reflected inthe type ofperson who tren~ comesto Israelasopposed to otherdestinations, orwhoremainin Any attemptto analyze knownaHyah theircountryofresidence. Theolimpossessa moresalientlyJew­ lateconjecturesandforecasts, muststartWith 99 98 pproximately3percentofall jewishintercontinen­ -S worldwideintheperiodfrom the 1880stotheFirst Table 1 about 30 per cent between 1919 and 1948; some 82 Immigrants to Israel 3 peak yearsuntil 1951;and50-70percent(i.e., stilI From 20 WestemCountries, 1973-1986 :t of jewish migration) until the second half of the AbsoluteNumbers andRatesPer 10,000Jews past decade, aliyah has evidently regressed to less In Countrya/Origin !Dt oftotal Jewish migration. (These estimates take Country No.ofOlim Olimper 10,000 Jews 7eridah - emigration from Israel - as a factor in Jewish migration.) 1973 1978 1983 1973 1978 1983 1973 1977 1982 1986 1977 1982 1986 1986 rewish migration, aliyah inclUded, has tapered off canada 1,573 1,452 969 10.7 9.4 7.8 9.3 3. From the mid-1950s until the early 1980s _ that US 15,556 13,260 9,933 5.6 4.7 4.4 4.9 .eperiod ofmostintensivealiyah - averageannual Australia 1,141 815 573 32.6 21.7 19.8 24.7 ion worldwide is estimated at about 60,000 per­ S. Africa 3,357 3,218 1,416 59.6 54.5 30.0 51.8 3diatepasthasseenafalI-offto20,000_50,000per_ Argentina 9,100 6,687 3,732 68.7 55.3 40.6 54.9 Brazil 1,300 1,039 847 26.0 20.8 21.2 22.7 Jfwhom 10,000-20,000 immigrated to Israel. In Chile 827 426 490 66.2 42.6 72.1 60.3 currentsituationresemblesthe 1920s, whenJew­ Mexico 605 478 532 34.6 27.3 38.0 33.3 '\Tas diffuse, and no urgent reason for mass mig­ Uruguay 1,849 930 1,323 105.6 74.7 122.5 100.9 :iitself. Then, as now, migration was multi-direc­ Venezuela 253 100 139 31.6 11.1 17.4 20.0 ~lowing the imposition of severe restrictions on Belgium 564 658 308 34.2 40.5 24.1 32.9 France 6,862 7,492 5,577 25.6 28.0 26.3 26.6 the United States - the jewish population dis­ W.Germany 641 655 567 41.4 40.9 43.0 41.8 :hout a clearly dominant destination. Yet in the Britain 3,731 4,999 3,225 19.6 28.2 24.4 24.1 First World War, thescope ofjewishmigration Italy 628 454 264 39.3 28.4 20.6 29.4 Netherland 666 791 538 44.3 58.5 49.8 50.9 Iitis today; and ofcourse Israel did not yet exist. Spain 162 249 197 36.0 47.4 41.0 41.5 ffrequency ofaliyah per 10,000Jews by cOUn­ Sweden 260 259 193 34.7 34.5 32.2 33.8 ows that aliyah from the West has consistently Switzerland 459 434 287 45.9 43.4 37.8 42.4 It than from other broad areas ofthe Jewish dis­ Turkey 965 2,487 384 87.7 226.1 45.7 119.8 .he Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Eur­ Sources: Immigrants to Israel: Central Bureau 01 :;tatistics, Jerusalem; JeWIsh l'opuianon countries and in those years when Jews were in Countries ofOrigin: U.0. Schmelz, and S. DellaPergola, 'World Jewish Popula­ tion'; AmericanJewish Year Book, various issues, 1981-1988. Today, When some 82 per cent of all diaspora e West, an examination of aliyah trends from :t sinequa nonforunderstandingpossiblefuture ish identity, are more active in Jewish organizations in their .cerningaliyah in general. country oforigin, and have greater prior knowledge of Hebrew. - or almost free - migration is the norm in the Theiraverageage is lowerthan thatofthe overallJewishpopula­ ill, striking disparities exist regarding the fre­ tion in the diaspora. Inthe past, family aliyah was predominant, :-om different Western countries (Table 1). The butrecentyearshavewitnesseda considerableincreaseinindivi­ to 1986 saw a minimal aliyah rate of0.5 olim dual aliyah. Olim generally have a high level ofeducation; how­ Jer 10,000Jewsrecordedforthe United States ever, as compared with the socio-economic structure ofdiaspora 'mpared with a maximum of 226.1 olim per Jewry, what is strikingisan over-representation oflowerstrata, Turkey (1978-1982) and 122.5 per 10,000 i.e., of those few who are still engaged in blue-collar jobs and 183-1986). If we rank Western countries manual labor. Also very striking among olim is a marked under­ t rates, considerable consistency is apparent representation ofpersons engaged incommerce. IStanding certain fluctuations. This finding From all points of view, the processes ofseparation entailed in o consider events outside Israel as an initial aliyah promote an intensification of the existing dissimilarity ·ahtrends. between the Jewish populationin Israel and in the diaspora. he influence ofincentives which areat work iI'e clearlyreflected in the type ofperson who 'Business as Usual' Josed to otherdestinations, orwhoremainin lence. Theolimpossessa moresalientlyJew­ Any attemptto analyze known aliyah trends in order to extrapo­ lateconjecturesandforecasts, muststartwiththepremisethatno 98 99 thecore countriesoftheWorldSystem. These COUD substantial change will occur in the existing trends. This basic acterized by a higher level of economic developm' presumptionof'businessasusual'involvesthreeprincipaldimen­ come level, higher per capita industrial productio sions: global, diaspora Jewry, and Israeli. invesunentofresources inR&D andhigher educa While acknowledging the importance ofthe new immigrantas Israel, as mentioned, is rankedsomewhere inthe an individual, we will not consider his/her character at the per­ advantagesover many countries, butlags wellbeb sonallevel, butin the aggregate ofnational and time frames. The has developed a certain dependence on them eoo analysis islargely based on a comparisonamongtWenty Western perhaps in other areas as well. On the face o~ it, ­ countries with Jewishpopulationsofatleast 10,000. ration balances to and from Israel are ConslSter: place in the World System. Generall~ speaking: t:: Aliyah From a Global Perspective negative with respect to countries WIth a rankinl The first dimension looks ataliyah interms ofthe internalpoliti­ own, and positive withrespect to countrieswith; cal, economic, and social context of countries where Jews live and in terms ofthe interconnections between those countries. I~ iorto itsown. The rate ofaliyah per 10,000 Jews inthe (Weste the past, attempts have been made to develop theoretical models p origin bears a close and consistent relati.onshi to determine thestandingofnations ina single worldalignment. socioeconomic indicators inthose countrIes. The For e~ample, the 'WorldSystem' model assumes a certain degree tive connectionis withan index measuringthe 11 o.freciprocal exchanges, mutualinfluences, anddependencyrela­ zation and economic and industrial developn: Uons between countries. 2 A hierarchical order of countries fol­ energy consumption in a specific country. This.: lows from these starting points. The strongest and most estab­ predictor of the aliyah rate per 10,000 Jews 1! lished, amongthemthe United States, areatthecoreofthe World origin: the higher a country's level of developm' System; othercountriesaresituated inperipheralcirclesatgrow­ alization, the lower the aliyah rate from that ing distances from the core. For our purposes, we will treat the Another variable, which also stands in inverse ~ ~orld Systemtheory asa useful analytical tool, while not accept­ rate ofaliyah, although more moderately, is an: mg the slide into historical determinism or ideological involve­ ofpoliticalfreedom inthecountry oforigin. • ment that sometimes crop up in the literature based on this con­ We also examined the correlation between all­ cept. We have a vested interest in seeing how ranked, so 'Human sufferingIndex' .3 This indexis a comp ~at we can examine whether, and how, the waves ofimmigra­ entsocial and economic indicators ineachCOUD Uon to and emigration from Israel reflect the country's inter­ two already mentioned measures ofenergy con nationalstanding. liticalfreedom. Itscorrelationwithaliyah is Ie Various socioeconomic indicators show that Israel bears a since it incorporatessome aspects which are nc 'semi-peripheral' status: while not numbered among the central vant to Jews - even those residing inless dev~ groupofmosthighlydevelopedandwealthiestindustrialnations such as adult literacy, infant mortality rates, Israel is also distantfrom theundeveloped countries ofthe Third consumption, and access to drinking water. World. Israelsharesthisintermediateposition- betweentheend while interestingat the aggregate level ofa soc ofthefirst quarter andthebeginningofthesecond quarter- with relevant to the Jewish population, which hi several other countries around the world. Interesting examples traitsandisconcentratedinmiddleto highsoc' are a few Eastern European countries and some Middle Eastern strata. The Jewish population seems to be les: oil producers. What they all have in common is considerable tions ofextreme inequality withina given soc natural or industrial resources, on the one hand, and erratic or it is to be expected that acute changes in inferior social and economic development as compared with the economic equilibrium ofa country will affect Western powers, on the other. Jewishmigration inthepasthundredyearshastendedtoflow to local Jewish community. Another important aspect of aliyah rates fl

2 I. wal~e:stein. The Modern World System. vol. I: Capitalist Agricu/ture and tries istheir relation to annualfluctuations in the Orlg!~ ~fthe European World Economy in the Sixteenth Century; Vol. II: from 1973-1986. A multivariate analysis oj Mercanuhsm and the Consolidation of the European World Econom :600-1750. Ne~Yo:k{AcademicPressl 1974, 1980; D. SnyderandE.L. KiCr: thetwentyWesterncountriesexaminedhere Structural POSlUon 10 the World Systemand Economic Growth 1955-1970' 3 The International Human suffering Index. Washi: A Multiple-Network Analysis of Transnational InteraCtion~·. America~ Committee) 1987. Journal ofSociology, Vol. 84, No.5, 1979,pp. 1096-1126. 101 100 lange will occur in the existing trends. This basic thecorecountriesofthe World System. These countriesarechar­ Jf'businessasusual'involvesthreeprincipaldimen_ :l.iaspora Jewry, and Israeli. acterized by a higher level of economic development, higher in­ come level, higher per capita industrial production, and greater wledging the importance ofthe new immigrant as investmentofresources in R&D and higher education. we will not consider his/her character at the per­ Israel, as mentioned, is ranked somewhere in the middle: it has l inthe aggregate ofnational and timeframes. The advantages over many countries, butlags well behind others and -ely based on a comparison amongtWenty Western has developed a certain dependence on them economically and Jewishpopulations ofatleast 10,000. perhaps in other areas as well. On the face of it, the world mig­ 'obalPerspective ration balances to and from Israel are consistent with Israel's place in the World System. Generally speaking, the balances are :sion looks at aliyah in terms ofthe internalpoliti­ negative with respect to countries with a ranking superior to its and social context of countries where Jews live, own, and positive with respect to countries with a ranking infer­ the interconnections between those countries. In iorto its own. Its have been made to develop theoretical models The rate ofaliyah per 10,000 Jews in the (Western) countries of !!standingofnations in a single world alignment. origin bears a close and consistent relationship to a number of e 'World System' model assumes a certain degree socioeconomic indicators in those countries. The strongest nega­ :hanges, mutualinfluences, and dependencyrela­ 2 tive connection is with an index measuring the level ofmoderni­ Duntries. A hierarchical order of countries fol­ zation and economic and industrial development: per capita ! starting points. The strongest and most estab­ energy consumption in a specific country. This is the best single -em the United States, are atthe core ofthe World predictor of the aliyah rate per 10,000 Jews in the country of untriesaresituatedinperipheralcirclesatgrow­ origin: the higher a country's level ofdevelopment and industri­ -m the core. For our purposes, we will treat the alization, the lower the aliyah rate from that country will be. eory as a useful analytical tool, while notaccept­ Another variable, which also stands in inverse proportion to the historical determinism or ideological involve­ rate ofaliyah, although more moderately, is anindexofthelevel mes crop up in the literature based on this con­ ofpoliticalfreedom inthecountryoforigin. -ested interest in seeing how Israel is ranked, so We also examined the correlation between aliyah rates and the line Whether, and how, the waves ofimmigra­ 'Human Suffering Index'.3 This index isa compositeoften differ­ ration from Israel reflect the country's inter­ entsocialand economic indicators in each country, includingthe twoalready mentioned measures ofenergyconsumptionandpo­ )nomic indicators show that Israel bears a litical freedom. Its correlation with aliyah is less clearly defined, status: While not numbered among the central since it incorporates some aspects which are notnecessarily rele­ Iydevelopedand wealthiestindustrialnations, vant to Jews - even those residing in less developed countries­ 1tfromthe undeveloped countries ofthe Third such as adult literacy, infant mortality rates, per capita calorie 9S thisintermediateposition- between theend consumption, and access to drinking water. These indicators, and the beginningofthe second quarter-with while interestingatthe aggregate level ofa society, are muchless tries around the world. Interesting examples relevant to the Jewish population, which has its own unique ~uropean countries and some Middle Eastern traitsandisconcentratedin middle to highsocioeconomic, urban at they all have in common is considerable strata. The Jewish population seems to be less sensitive to situa­ al resources, on the one hand, and erratic or tions ofextremeinequality withina given society. Nevertheless, economic development as compared with the I the other. it is to be expected that acute changes in the general socio­ economic equilibrium ofa country will affect the standing ofthe in thepasthundred yearshastendedto flow to local Jewish community. adem World System, Vol. I: Capitalist Agriculture and Another important aspect of aliyah rates from Western coun­ aean World Economy in the Sixteenth Century; Vol. II: tries is their relation to annual fluctuations inthe number ofolim te Consolidation of the European World Economy, (Academic Press) 1974,1980;D. SnyderandE.L. Kick, from 1973-1986. A multivariate analysis of the time series for the World System and Economic Growth, 1955-1970; the twenty Westerncountriesexaminedhereshowsthattheycan Analysis of Transnational Interactions', American '01. 84,No. 5, 1979,PP.1096-1l26. 3 The International Human Sujftring Index, Washington (Population Crisis Committee) 1987. 100 101 be divided into several groups. The first is the North American ences in cultural and social structure. I~ the ~ complex - the US and Canada - along with two other countries, a number of parallel basic processes are dlSCernil ne~ Australiaand Italy. Changes over time in aliyah rates from these socioeconomic and the demographic sphere: ~uburbs countries have been quite similar over the years. Here, too, it zation, large-scale movement to the of t.: seemsplausiblethatthecloseconnectionbetweenthesecountries the mass acquisition ofhigher educauon by the y. andtheirplace atthe core ofthe World Systemis reflected. tion, andprofessionalspecializationindistinctare A second group includes most of the countries of Western Eur­ collarsector. ope, with one ortwoexceptionsthatareindicatedbelow. Athird Demographically, the erosion ofthe fa.roily, fon groupconsistsoftheLatinAmericanstates. Eachoftheseregional and vital cell in Jewish society, is growmg ever n groups displays quite homogeneous patterns of change - albeit process is reflected in less frequent and later mal different from one another - with respect to annual aliyah rates. vorce, low fertility, and an accelerated increase offs~ring There are several other countries with singular patterns. The riages. Usually, less than half the ofm first of these is South Africa, where unique factors have affected are affiliatedwiththeJ ewishcommunlty. CompOo aliyah trends. Two others are Sweden and Switzerland, which developmentsistherapidaging ofthe JewishPO); behaveliketwosmallpowers, andaremarkedbya largemeasure Some ofthese tendencies are peculiar to the J evo ofindependence with respect to aliyah over time. Possibly, this butto a large extentthey are a mirror image ofge factreflectstheautonomousinternationalpoliticalstatusanddis­ underway in Western countries containingsizat proportionate economic cloutofthese two countries. lations. One key implication of these processes: One quite distinct finding emerges from this preliminary and aside the effect of international migrations - tl: co~~ highlysimplifiedanalysis:thereisa rationalandconsistentarray general population in more developed ofgeneralsocioeconomicfactors thataffectsthe volumeandrates approachingzero. Mostofthe JewishcommumtJ ofaliyahfrom theWest. Fundamentally,incountrieswherelocal tries already show an accelerated process ofpop· conditionsaremoreattractive, theretentionfactoraffectsJewish and a decline inthe proportion ofJewsinthe tot. groups, inducing them to stay where they are. As a result, aliyah From the qualitative standpoint - the nature c frequency from these countries tends to be low. Yet even in Wes­ and Jewish content in the dia terncountries, negativeeconomic, social,political,andevenmili­ already noted the ever deepening assim~~tion tary factors are at work, sometimes very forcefully. These nega­ reverse tendencies of Jewish cultural resilIencE livel~ tive factors usually operate in the short term, and are clearly These polar attitudes bear the stamp of a distinguishable in the changing annual profile of aliyah rates in intensifiedinrecentyears, inthe US particularI­ eachofthe twenty countriesexamined. true thrustofdiaspora Jewry. Abasic facet ofthis debate concernsthe rene" Aliyah From the PerspectiveojDiasporaJewry velop a local rather than universalist orientati In contrast to the situation that prevailed throughout most of contentofJ ewishnessincontemporaryWesten modern , the majority of Jews today reside in anattemptto find a local diasporaalternative 1;( countries where the regimes are free and relatively open, in ofculturaland spiritual optionsthat Israelhas terms of human rights, social relations, mobility, information in itself this striving for Jewish cultural autor flow, and exchange of opinions. Together with these elements development, its effect, evenifindireetly, is to goes a comparatively high living standard, at least in the popula­ asa factorwhichisnolongersovitaleitherfort tionstratato which most Jews belong. Corrected population esti­ oftheJew, orforthepossibilityoforganizinga 5 matesfor recentyearsregardingthenumberofJewsinthe world ful collective Jewishlife. put the total number of Jews in the diaspora at approximately , Fora conciseandsharpexpressionofthisapproach, ~ 9.4 million, inaddition to the over 3.6 million JewsinIsrael.4 Not Israel, Jews' ', Jewish We~k, V~l. One of the dominant developments in the contemporary dias­ extended development of this thesis in the h~stonCli pora is a growing convergence between different communities Jewry can be found in C.E. Silberman, A Certam Peop which were once marked by profound and fascinating differ­ Their Lives Today, New York (summitBooks) 1985. S and A. zuckerman, The Transformation of the Foracritiqu~ofth • U.0. Schmelz and S. DellaPergola, 'World Jewish Population, 1986', (University ofChicago Press) 1984. Ameri­ a can Jewish Year Book, Vol. 88. New York and (The American tionssee: U.0. SchmelzandS. DellaPergol ,BaSIC Trel Jewish Committee and The Jewish Publication Society) 1988, pp. 412-427. Demography, New York (The AmericanJewishCom: 103 102 Ito several groups. The first is the North American ences in cultural and social structure. In the diaspora today, I! US and Canada - along with two other countries, -Italy. Changes over time in aliyah rates from these a number of parallel basic processes are discernible in both the re been quite similar over the years. Here, too, it socioeconomic and the demographic sphere: near total urbani­ ]ethatthecloseconnectionbetweenthesecountries zation, large-scale movement to the suburbs of the great cities, I!atthe core ofthe World Systemis reflected. the mass acquisition ofhigher education by the younger genera­ up includes most of the countries of Western Eur­ tion, andprofessionalspecializationindistinctareasofthewhite­ Jrtwo exceptions thatareindicatedbelow. Athird collarsector. oftheLatinAmericanstates. Eachoftheseregional Demographically, the erosion ofthe family, formerly a central and vital cell in Jewish society, is growing ever more acute. The rg quite homogeneous patterns of change - albeit one another - with respect to annual aliyah rates. process is reflected in less frequent and later marriage, more di­ ~ral other countries with singular patterns. The vorce, low fertility, and an accelerated increase in mixed ­ South Africa, where unique factors have affected riages. Usually, less than half the offspring of mixed marriages Two others are Sweden and Switzerland, which areaffiliatedwiththe J ewishcommunity. Compoundingallthese IsmaIlpowers, andaremarked bya largemeasure developments isthe rapid agingofthe Jewish population. :e with respect to aliyah over time. Possibly, this Some ofthese tendencies are peculiarto theJewishpopulation, autonomous internationalpoliticalstatusanddis­ butto a large extent they area mirror image ofgeneralprocesses conomic cloutofthese two countries, underway in Western countries containingsizable Jewish popu- • mct finding emerges from this preliminary and lations. One key implication of these processes is that - putting rlanalysis: thereisa rationalandconsistentarray aside the effect of international migrations - the growth of the ~conomicfactors thataffects thevolume andrates general population in more developed countries is rapidly Ie West. Fundamentally,incountrieswherelocal approachingzero. MostoftheJewishcommunitiesinthesecoun­ oreattractive, theretentionfactoraffectsJewish tries already show an accelerated process ofpopulation decrease : them to stay where they are. As a result, aliyah anda decline intheproportion ofJewsinthe total population. j}ese countries tends to below. Yet even in Wes­ From the qualitative standpoint - the nature ofthe changes in 3gativeeconomic, social, political,andevenmili­ Jewish identity and Jewish content in the diaspora - we have .t work, sometimes very forcefully. These nega­ already noted the ever deepening assimilation tendencies. Yet lIy operate in the short term, and are clearly reverse tendencies ofJewish cultural resilience are also visible. n the changing annual profile ofaliyah rates in These polar attitudes bear the stamp of a lively debate that has f countries examined. intensified inrecentyears, in the US particularly, concerningthe true thrust ofdiaspora Jewry. ·spectiveojDiasporaJewry A basic facet ofthis debate concerns the renewed attempt to de­ 3 situation that prevailed throughout most of velop a local rather than universalist orientation regarding the listory, the majority of Jews today reside in contentofJewishnessincontemporaryWesternsocieties. Thisis the regimes are free and relatively open, in an attempt to find a local diaspora alternative to part ofthe range ights, social relations, mobility, information ofcultural andspiritualoptions that Israel hasto offer. Although ~e of opinions. Together with these elements in itself this striving for Jewish cultural autonomy is a positive 3ly high living standard, at least in the popula­ development, its effect, even ifindirectly, is to shunt Israel aside as a factor whichis no longerso vitaleitherfor theself-fulfillment :l. most Jews belong. Correctedpopulationesti­ arsregardingthe numberofJewsin the world ofthe Jew, orfor the possibilityoforganizinga richandmeaning­ 5 I8r of Jews in the diaspora at approximately ful collective Jewish life. tion to the over 3.6 million Jews in Israel.4 • Fora conciseandsharpexpressionofthisapproach,seeJ. Neusner, 'America, ant developments in the contemporary dias­ Not Israel, Jews' Promised Land', Jewish Week, Vol. 199, No. 51,1987. An =onvergence between different communities extended development of this thesis in the historical context of American narked by profound and fascinating differ­ Jewry can be found in C.E. Silberman, A Certain People: AmericanJews and Their Lives Today, New York (Summit Books) 1985. See also C. Goldscheider )ellaPergola, 'World Jewish Population, 1986', Ameri­ and A. Zuckerman, The Transformation ofthe Jews, and :C, Vol. 88, New York and Philadelphia (The American (UniverSItyofChicago Press) 1984. Fora critiqueofthedemographicassump­ d TheJewish Publication Society) 1988,pp. 412-427. tionssee: U.0. SchmelzandS. DellaPergola,Basic Trends inAmericanJewish Demography, New York (The American Jewish Committee) 1988. 102 103 ~'

I:

number of pupils attending afternoon or once­ Nevertheless, thereisnodenyingthefactthatIsraelcontinuesto classes. Naturally, any attempt to assess the infl­ be notonlya highlysignificantfactorintheconsciousnessofdias­ education cannot disregard the broader social poraJewry, butalsoaninterestingandintriguingfactor, perhaps whichitfunctions. Jewishdayschoolsaremorec the principal factor able to spurthe mobilization oflarge Jewish tries where the Jewish population is less willing groups intime ofneed. in the public educational system. In such 10CE As for the prospects ofaliyah from the West, itis difficult to esti­ j: schools fulfill a role of high-level private schoc mate the true impact the various positions mentioned wield I affairs is generally typical ofthe relatively less withintheJewishpublic. However,someinterestingcluescanbe ern countries. It can be inferred, then, that pm found in a survey of potential tourism to Israel conducted in the impacton aliyah frequency whichisusuallyattt early 1980s,amonga representativesampleofAmericanJewry.6 education, actually derives from negative gener; At thattime, some 30 percentofthose polled had alreadyvisited factors such as we described above. Israel, ascomparedwithabout 17 percenta decadeearlier. These As expected, the frequency of mixed marriag figures reflect themajorgrowthintourismtiesinrecentyears. In in each country, but has increased rapidly eve: addition, inthe 1980sabout46percentexpressedtheirreadiness negative - though weak - relation to frequency I to visit Israel at some time in the future, while 24 per cent said Summing up, from the perspective of the I they had no interest in ever visiting Israel. These percentages graphic processes in the diaspora, it is difficult 1 may hintto the balance offorces betweena centralcore ofactive increased aliyah in the near future. On the conU and identified Jews, and a large 'silent majority' of supporting flicting processes - an intensified interest in thi and identified Jews who are not very active personally, and local level onthe one hand, andthegrowthofas fringe groupswithonlya tenuousaffinitywithJewishandIsraeli other hand - tend, each in its own way, to ali contents. We might ascribe a good deal of importance to these prospect for a rise in the number of Western (J trends, on the assumption that the dominant factor, where the with the low Western aliyah levelofthe past. thrust for aliyah is concerned, isthe intensity ofJewish identity within a given community. Of course, this assumption requires Aliyah From the Israeli Viewpoint verification. As mentioned, Israel's place in the World Systo Inthe absence ofdirectand systematicdata onthe components as 'semi-peripheral'. To evaluate the forces ofJewish identity throughout the diaspora, the assumption may repulsion at work in Israeli society which are nevertheless be examined indirectly. It turns out, in the first levels ofaliyah, we need to examine thechangi place, thata significantly negative connection exists betweenthe ofthatsociety. One often hears itsaidin Israel rate ofaliyah per 10,000 Jewsand the size ofthe Jewish popula­ tive aspects of Israeli society discourage aliya. tion in each country. Aliyah rates are also low from countries in life in Israel were greatly enhanced, the propc which the Jewish population has increased through immigra­ argue, aliyah, too, including Westernaliyah, V' tion, and higher in countries where the Jewish population is de­ creasing for reasons other than aliyah. The development of an respondingly. To examinethe validity ofthishypothesis, WI alternative Jewish life style to that being offered by Israel, and that occurred over a period of fifteen years ir. theformation ofthecriticalmass requiredfororganizationalong large number of social indicators. Our aim these lines, thus seem to constitute a serious check on consider­ whethera correlationexistedbetweenthese c} ations of aliyah. This conclusion can also be formulated from a tuations in the number of Western olim ove] different angle: incoming Jewish migration to a given country interfereswith outgoingJewishmigration, aliyah included. countryindividually.7 A positive, though feeble, connection exists between frequency The connection was examined between the annual , of in a given country and aliyah rates. For the Jews in the countries of origin, and each ofthe follol mostpart, theconnectionfinds expressionwithregardtothechil­ total olim; number oftouriststo Israel; numberofdep dren who have attended Jewish day-schools. Incontrast, there is had not returned within four years; percentage of c: Price Index; percentageofunemployed; numberofw virtually no statistical connection between aliyah rates and the strikes; percentage of change in real wages; Inde numberofstarts of new housing constructions; nurnJ • R. Bar-On, R. Barash, M. Ficker, .JewishTourismfrom theUnited Statesand number of road accidents; number of new industria its Potentialfor Israel' (Hebrew). Jerusalem (StateofIsrael, MinistryofTour­ change in Industrial Production Index; percentage ( ism) 1981 (mimeo). 105 104 :, thereisnodenyingthefact thatIsraelcontinuesto number of pupils attending afternoon or once-a-week Hebrew ighlysignificantfactorin theconsciousnessofdias­ classes. Naturally, any attempt to assess the influence ofJewish ltalsoaninterestingandintriguingfactor, perhaps education cannot disregard the broader social context within actor able to spur the mobilization oflargeJewish whichitfunctions. Jewishdayschoolsaremorecommonincoun­ -ofneed. tries where the Jewish population is less willing to place its trust speets ofaliyah from the West, itis difficult to esti­ in the public educational system. In such locales, the Jewish impact the various positions mentioned wield schools fulfill a role of high-level private schools. This state of ishpublic. However, someinterestingcluescanbe affairs is generally typical of the relatively less developed West­ -ey ofpotential tourism to Israel conducted in the ern countries. It can be inferred, then, that part of the positive longarepresentativesampleofAmericanJewry.6 impacton aliyah frequency which is usuallyattributed to Jewish me 30 percentofthose polled hadalreadyvisited education, actuallyderivesfrom negativegeneralsocioeconomic tred withabout 17percentadecadeearlier. These factors such as we described above. Ie majorgrowth intourism tiesinrecentyears. In As expected, the frequency of mixed marriages, which varies 1980sabout46percentexpressedtheirreadiness in each country, but has increased rapidly everywhere, bears a ; some time in the future, while 24 per cent said negative - though weak - relation to frequency ofaliyah. ..erest in ever visiting Israel. These percentages Summing up, from the perspective of the basic sociodemo­ ~lance offorces between a centralcore ofactive graphic processes in the diaspora, itis difficult to see a reason for ews, and a large 'silent majority' of supporting increased aliyah in the near future. On the contrary: the two con­ rews who are not very active personally, and flicting processes - an intensified interest in things Jewish at the thonlya tenuousaffinitywithJewishandIsraeli local level on the one hand, andthegrowth ofassimilationon the :ght ascribe a good deal of importance to these other hand - tend, each in its own way, to adversely affect the :sumption that the dominant factor, where the prospect for a rise in the number of Western olim, as compared is concerned, is the intensity ofJewish identity with the low Western aliyah level ofthe past. Jmmunity. Of course, this assumption requires Aliyah From the Israeli Viewpoint ·fdirect and systematic data on the components As mentioned, Israel's place in the World System can be defined 'Y throughout the diaspora, the assumption may as 'semi-peripheral'. To evaluate the forces of attraction and 3xamined indirectly. It turns out, in the first repulsion at work in Israeli society which are likely to affect the licantlynegativeconnection exists between the levels ofaliyah, we need to examine the changingcharacteristics 10,000 Jews and the size ofthe Jewishpopula­ ofthatsociety. One often hears itsaid inIsrael thatvarious nega­ :ry. Aliyah rates are also low from countries in tive aspects of Israeli society discourage aliyah. Ifthe quality of 1. population has increased through immigra­ life in Israel were greatly enhanced, the proponents ofthis view :J. countries where the JeWish population is de­ argue, aliyah, too, including Western aliyah, would increase cor­ ·ns other than aliyah. The development of an respondingly. :J. life style to that being offered by Israel, and To examinethevalidityofthishypothesis, we lookedatchanges Ie criticalmass requiredfor organizationalong that occurred over a period of fifteen years in Israel for a fairly ~em to constitute a serious check on consider­ large number of social indicators. Our aim was to determine .his conclusion can also be formulated from a whethera correlationexistedbetweenthesechangesandthefluc­ ::oming Jewish migration to a given country tuations in the number of Western olim overall and from each goingJewish migration, aliyah included. country individually.7 I feeble, connection exists between frequency n in a given country and aliyah rates. For the 7 The connection was examined between the annual aliyah rates per 10,000 3ctionfinds expressionwithregard to thechil­ Jews in the countries of origin, and each of the following Israeli indicators: nded Jewish day-schools. In contrast, there is total olim; numberoftourists to Israel; numberofdepartinginhabitantswho had not returned within four years; percentage of change in the Consumer -cal connection between aliyah rates and the Price Index; percentageofunemployed; numberofworkinghours lostdue to strikes; percentage of change in real wages; Index of Housing Density; M. Ficker, 'Jewish Tourism from the United States and number ofstarts ofnew housing constructions; numberofnewautomobiles; -' (Hebrew), Jerusalem (State ofIsrael, MinistryofTour­ number of road accidents; number of new industrial patents; percentage of change in Industrial Production Index; percentage ofpupils in the religious 104 105 Contradictions and divergences of direction were apparent in tive security conditions and short-term increas several of the indicators we considered. Although great caution flicts with conventional expectations; hence itE must be exercised against trivializing the analysis, these differ­ to look for the cause ofsuch aliyah outside Israe ences in part seem to reflect changes in government. Thus, the Jewish identity in the diaspora. yearsofLaborruleareassociated morewithindicatorsrelatingto Unemployment levels in Israel also bear a po: the development of the collective infrastructure, whereas the with aliyah rates, ifwe leta year'slag between years of Likud rule point more towards concern for individual the problem in Israel and the response ofaliyal wellbeing. illogical finding does, apparently, admit of ar As expected, there is a close connection between the number of already noted Western countries are interloc] oUm andthenumberofstarts ofnewhousingconstructions. Butif economic and politicalsystem. Israel, too, is lin this finding comesas no surprise, otherrelationships could be far economically and is affected by changes withi less anticipated. On the face ofit, if Israeli factors were a domi­ that the negative economic processes in Israel nant factor in the levels and fluctuations of Western aUyah, one ployment, are an expression ofsimilar process would expectchanges inIsraeli societyto beparalleled byconsis­ haps in more acute form, in the countries of· tentshiftsinthenumberofoUm inallthecountriesoforigin. This oUm. Thus, conditions in Israel, even ifnot op' synchronicchangewouldconstitutethediaspora's reaction tothe preferable to those prevailing in many WesteI: changes in Israeli society. rael, several protective devices function with J This, however, is not the case. Each diaspora community reacts vidual's economic situation, and this may hav. tochanges inIsraeldifferently, ornotatall. Intheoverwhelming albeit modest, increases in the number ofolin: majorityofcases, no significantconnectionexists betweendevel­ mic recession. Once again, the underlying rea: opments inIsraelandthe numberofolim. Thisfinding isvalidfor is to be found outside Israel. data comparisons referring to the same year, but equally ifit is Strikes in Israel, and the attendant loss of w· assumed that there will be a year's lag in the aliyah reaction to on the other hand a negative connection with Israeli circumstances. In some instances, the indication ofa spe­ looking atthe aliyah statisticsone year later. cific connection is actually reversed, depending on whether the These analyses seek to unearth a possible Ii: datadeterminingitare measuredin the sameyearorwitha time changes in Israeli society and the rate of ali} differential. Inothercases, relationshipsarefound whicharesta­ Thelinkemergingso farisveryweak. Inaddi1 tistically significant but which lack any theoreticaljustification. ask whether any connection exists betweeJ For example, why is there a negative correlation between an in­ promptness of reaction of Jews in a given CI dex ofhousing quality in Israel and the number ofolim -lagged Israel, andthefrequency ofaliyahfrom thatc over one year - from several Western countries? sion that follows from the processing of ma Nonetheless, Western aliyah does seem to react consistently to that, apparently, better syntonization ofa gi\ particular events and tendencies in Israel: wars, for example, or nity regarding events in Israel, does not trE securitycasualties. Ifwelookatthenumberofolimoneyearafter proclivity for immigrating to Israel. One is such events, a positive correlation is found with aliyah levels. elude that the hypothesis concerning a sigJ This connection can be seen as the response of those diaspora between the quality of life in Israel and fre Jews who possess a more intense Jewish identity and feel a unfounded, atleastontheface ofthepresent· greatersense ofsolidaritywith Israelinthewake ofserioussecur­ Ofcourse, this does not exempt us from con1 ity conditions. Yet it is also noteworthy that an absence ofwars thedeeperreasonsforthepaucityofWestern and a falloffin the numberofsecuritycasualties didnotaugment one major hypothesis, the reason lies in . the volume of aUyah. Manifestly, the connection between nega­ between the socioeconomicstructure oftheJ the developed countries, and thesocioeconoI education system; number of convictions in criminal trials for serious of­ el as a society possessing a Jewish majority. fenses; Israel Government party composition (dummy variables for: Labor, Likudl. Source for all of the above: Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical tries, about 80 per cent ofthe Jewish work: Abstract o/Israel, various volumes. In addition: warsin Israel (dummy vari· white-collar jobs, a growing share of these ablel; number of casualties caused by terrorist actions in Israeli territory, the free professions. The commercial sectol along the borders, in , and Gaza. Source: N. Avigdol, Y. Ravid, in the diaspora, although it is palpably recel Population, Wars and Losses - Statistical Background (draft), (State of Israel, Weapons Development Authority, Centerfor MilitaryStudies) 1986. ofolim who are employed inthe sectors mer

106 107 :lS and divergences of direction were apparent in indicators we considered. Although great caution tive security conditions and short-term increases in aliyah con­ ised against trivializing the analysis, these differ­ flicts with conventional expectations; hence it seems reasonable :eem to reflect changes in government. Thus, the to look for the cause ofsuch aliyah outside Israel, in the evolving :uIeareassociated morewithindicatorsrelatingto Jewish identity in the diaspora. -nt of the collective infrastructure, whereas the Unemployment levels in Israel also bear a positive connection rule point more towards concern for individual with aUyah rates, ifwe leta year's lag between the emergence of the problem in Israel and the response ofaliyah. This seemingly here is a close connection between the number of illogical finding does, apparently, admit of an explanation. As mberofstartsofnewhousingconstructions. Butif already noted Western countries are interlocked in a complex les as nosurprise, otherrelationshipscould befar economic andpoliticalsystem. Israel, too, islinkedto thissystem • On the face ofit, ifIsraeli factors were a domi­ economically and is affected by changes within it. It is possible Je levels and fluctuations of Western aUyah, one that the negative economic processes in Israel, including unem­ angesin Israeli societyto beparalleled byconsis­ ployment, are an expression ofsimilar processes occurring, per­ :numberofoUminallthecountriesoforigin. This haps in more acute form, in the countries of origin of Western t.ge wouldconstitutethediaspora'sreactionto the oUm. Thus, conditions in Israel, even ifnot optimal, may still be Ii society. preferable to those prevailing in many Western countries. In Is­ is not the case. Each diaspora community reacts rael, several protective devices function with respect to the indi­ leI differently, ornotatall. Intheoverwhelming vidual's economic situation, and this may have led to surprising, •nosignificantconnection existsbetween devel­ albeit modest, increases in the number ofolim attimes ofecono­ Iand the numberofoUm. Thisfindingisvalidfor mic recession. Once again, the underlying reason for the process s referring to the same year, but equally ifit is is to be found outside Israel. Ie will be a year's lag in the aUyah reaction to Strikes in Israel, and the attendant loss ofworking hours, bear nces. Insome instances, the indication ofa spe­ on the other hand a negative connection with aliyah rates, again s actually reversed, depending on whether the lookingat the aliyah statisticsone year later. itare measured in the same year orwith a time These analyses seek to unearth a possible link between yearly 1ercases, relationshipsarefound whicharesta­ changes in Israeli society and the rate of aliyah from the West. nt but which lack any theoreticaljustification. The link emergingso far isveryweak. Inaddition, weshouldalso •is there a negative correlation between an in­ ask whether any connection exists between the strength and :ility in Israel and the number ofoUm -lagged promptness of reaction of Jews in a given country to events in 1m several Western countries? Israel, and thefrequency ofaliyahfrom thatcountry. Theconclu­ ;tern aliyah does seem to react consistently to sion that follows from the processing of many relevant data is md tendencies in Israel: wars, for example, or that, apparently, bettersyntonization ofa given Jewish commu­ ,Ifwe look atthenumberofoUm oneyearafter nity regarding events in Israel, does not translate into greater itive correlation is found with aUyah levels. proclivity for immigrating to Israel. One is thus forced to con­ clude that the hypothesis concerning a significant connection In be seen as the response of those diaspora a more intense Jewish identity and feel a between the quality of life in Israel and frequency of aliyah is daritywith Israelinthewakeofserioussecur­ unfounded, atleaston theface ofthepresentempirical evidence. it is also noteworthy that an absence ofwars Of course, this does notexemptus from continuingto searchout lumber ofsecuritycasualties did notaugment thedeeperreasonsforthepaucityofWesternaliyah. Accordingto h. Manifestly, the connection between nega­ one major hypothesis, the reason lies in the incompatibility between the socioeconomic structure ofthe Jewish minorities in mber of convictions in criminal trials for serious of­ the developed countries, andthesocioeconomicstructure ofIsra­ nent party composition (dummy variables for: Labor, el as a society possessing a Jewish majority. In the leading coun­ of the above: Central Bureau of Statistics, Statistical ious volumes. In addition: wars in Israel (dummy vari­ tries, about 80 per cent ofthe Jewish work force is employed in Illties caused by terrorist actions in Israeli territory, white-collar jobs, a growing share of these in management and udea, Samaria and Gaza. Source: N. Avigdol, Y. Ravid, the free professions. The commercial sector remains important Losses - Statistical Background (draft), Haifa (State of ~pmentAuthority,Centerfor MilitaryStudies) 1986. in the diaspora, although it is palpably receding. Large numbers ofoUm who are employed in the sectors mentioned above are not 106 ~ 107 easily absorbed into a national economy with needs in diverse The Comprehensive Picture: A Multi-Variate AnalysL areas, such as industrial manufacturing, agriculture, security, We willconcludethisdiscussion- whichtook as services, and others - professions in which the majority ofdias­ thatthe basicdeterminantsunderlyingaliyahte unchanged - with a multi-variate analysis of pora Jews have no intention to engage. Their professional train­ ing and aspirations are different, and inthe lightoftheirpresent frOID twenty Western countries from 1973-192 regre~ socialstatus, retrainingwouldbeperceivedasa seriousdecline in ticularly 1983-1986. The results of the summed up in Table 2, Statistically, about 60-': status. That the employment structure of olim during the Man­ date period and the state's first years underwent tremendous variance in aliyah rates from the Westcanbe e" changes is well known. However, in today's social conditions, it offour variables: per capita energy consumptio: isdifficultto believethatmany would bepreparedtopaytheprice of origin, rate of Jewish population growth in origin, number ofyears inIsrael ofprevious oli entailed by a change of occupation - a price that conditions of country, and reaction to wars involving IsraeL' massorforced aliyah demanded. accounting for such a high percentage ofexplail An additional problem from the Israeli viewpoint concerns the firms the findings ofa similaranalysis regardiI:: connection between the absorption ofprevious immigrants and undertakeninthe 1960sand 1970s.STable 2aIs thescopeofcurrentaliyah. Theseniorityofformerolimcanactas atelytheresultsofregression analysesfor eache a mediating factor in the absorption of new olim. It stands to explanatory variables: the majority society ab reason that a large group ofveteran olim ofa common origin can of the Jewish community abroad, previous ir: playa useful role in helping more recent immigrants overcome tion, and the characteristics of Israeli socie. the difficulties they inevitably encounter. Seniority usually goes hand-in-hand with adaptation to a place, and sometimessatisfac­ abroad resonate more powerfully than fae accountingfor thevariationofaliyah rates. At­ tion as welL In contrast, the more recent the aliyah from a given explanation that combines the various perspe country, andthe higherthepercentage ofnew arrivalsfrom that discussed here, is considerably more potenttho country, the greater will be the psycho-social instability exper­ ienced by that group. The consequent dissatisfaction will ulti­ based on variables ofone type alone. Besides the greater or lesser effectiveness of mately generate negative feedback for those still in the country describing aliyahtrends, the principalconclus oforigin and ponderingaliyah. is that Western aliyah characteristics admit This hypothesis is statistically validated. The less the seniority ceptualization, rational explanation, and hene in Israel attaching to olim from a given country, the lower the aliyah rate from that country. This finding also illuminates tabilitytoo. aliyah trendsfrom the Soviet Union (which, ofcourse, forbids or severely regulates free migration). It is possible that, where de­ The Catastrophe Scenario clining Soviet aliyah propensities are concerned, one factor Itis neither pleasantnorpopularto predictcat among many wasa largegroupofolim whose negative message to ments that could affect immigration to Israel otherpotential olim deterred them from immigrating to IsraeL that should be addressed, however briefly, in Finally, the geographical distance of the immigrant's country of origin from Israel only exerts a marginal influence on aliyah strategic level, even if the situations describ mote indeed. Historically, itshould notbe for~ frequency. ofaliyah hasalwaysoccurredinconditionsof To conclude these remarks on the Israeli perspective ofaliyah, anotherquestionshouldbe asked:arethecontentsandsymbolsof as regardsthesituation oftheJewsinthediasl the security, economic and social condition an immigration-absorbing country that desires new olim still at withthe majority oftheJewshavingleft, thee work in today's Israeli society? An analysis ofthescale ofpriori­ a danger of concrete distress in the short t ties in the Israelipublic arena, namely mass communication me­ remaining communities in the Arabstates, ar dia, national education and the political system, will most likely Theoretically, a mass exodus of Jews could produce a negative reply. Israeli society has moved a long way destruction of the current balance between t since the days when it was ready to subsidize olim at any price, and its institutional leadership, and the Jev justso longas theycame. Obviously, the change ofatmosphere in Israel regarding readiness to receive new olim wields a certain influence on the prospectofreceivingthem in practice. • SeeNotel,above. 109 108 into a national economy with needs in diverse The ComprehensivePicture:A Multi-Variate Analysis ndustrial manufacturing, agriculture, security, We willconcludethisdiscussion - whichtook asitsstartingpoint lers - professions in which the majority ofdias­ thatthe basicdeterminantsunderlyingaUyah tendenciesremain no intention to engage. Their professional train­ unchanged - with a multi-variate analysis of the aUyah rates lnsare different, andin the light oftheirpresent from twenty Western countries from 1973-1986, and more par­ "ainingwould beperceivedasa seriousdeclinein ticularly 1983-1986. The results of the regression analyses are employment structure of oUm during the Man- summed up in Table 2. Statistically, about 60-70 per centofthe the state's first years underwent tremendous variance in aUyah ratesfrom the Westcanbe explained interms :nown. However, in today's social conditions, it offour variables: per capita energyconsumption in the countries !ve thatmanywouldbepreparedtopaytheprice of origin, rate of Jewish population growth in the countries of mge of occupation - a price that conditions of origin, number ofyears in Israel ofprevious oUm from the given :yah demanded. country, and reaction to wars involving Israel. The possibility of ~oblem from the Israeli viewpoint concerns the accountingfor such a high percentage ofexplainedvariancecon­ ,en the absorption ofprevious immigrants and firms the findings ofa similaranalysis regarding Western aUyah JtaUyah. TheseniorityofformeroUmcanactas undertaken in the 1960sand 1970s.8 Table 2also setsforth separ­ Ir in the absorption of new oUm. It stands to atelythe resultsofregressionanalysesfor eachofthefour typesof 3group ofveteran oUm ofa common origin can explanatory variables: the majority society abroad, the makeup in helping more recent immigrants overcome of the Jewish community abroad, previous immigrant absorp­ y inevitably encounter. Seniority usually goes tion, and the characteristics of Israeli society. Again, factors 1 adaptation to a place, andsometimessatisfac­ abroad resonate more powerfully than factors in Israel in ltrast, the more recent the aUyah from a given accountingfor the variation ofaliyah rates. At the same time, the igher thepercentage ofnewarrivalsfrom that explanation that combines the various perspectives of analysis 3r will be the psycho-social instability exper­ discussed here, is considerably more potent than an explanation ,up. The consequent dissatisfaction will ulti­ based on variables ofone type alone. 3gative feedback for those still in the country Besides the greater or lesser effectiveness of a given model for ~ringaUyah. describingaUyah trends, the principal conclusion ofthe analysis : statistically validated. The less the seniority is that Western aUyah characteristics admit of systematic con­ to oUm from a given country, the lower the ceptualization, rational explanation, and hence, perhaps, predic­ ;hat country. This finding also illuminates tability too. the Soviet Union (which, ofcourse, forbids or ree migration). Itis possible that, where de­ ah propensities are concerned, one factor The Catastrophe Scenario argegroup ofoUm whose negativemessageto Itis neitherpleasant nor popularto predictcatastrophicdevelop­ deterred them from immigrating to Israel. ments that could affect immigration to Israel. Yet this is a topic -phical distance of the immigrant's country that should be addressed, however briefly, in a discussion at the I only exerts a marginal influence on aUyah strategic level, even if the situations described now appear re­ mote indeed. Historically, itshould notbe forgotten thatthebulk emarks on the Israeli perspective ofaUyah, ofaUyah hasalwaysoccurredinconditionsofacutedistress, both 11ld beasked: are thecontentsandsymbolsof as regards thesituationoftheJewsinthediaspora, andas regards Irbing country that desires new oUm still at the security, economic and social conditions in Israel. Today, !Ii society? An analysis ofthescale ofpriori­ i with themajorityofthe Jewshavingleft, thecommunitiesfacing lic arena, namely mass communication me­ jl a danger of concrete distress in the short term, including the In and the political system, will most likely 11 remainingcommunities in the Arabstates, are few and small. 3ply. Israeli society has moved a long way l' '! Theoretically, a mass exodus of Jews could be triggered by the itwas ready to subsidize oUm at any price, destruction of the current balance between the majority society ne. Obviously, the change ofatmosphere in and its institutional leadership, and the Jewish minority. This iness to receive new oUm wields a certain i lect ofreceiving them in practice. • SeeNotel,above. 108 It! 109 Table 2 breakdowncoulddevelopasa resultofmajormi economic crises. Were such major crises to be Summary ofPrincipal Variables West, andparticularlyintheleadingcountries, Explaining Variance in AliyahRatesPer 10,000Jews fications would relegate the question of aliya In 20 Western Countries, 1973-1986 place as compared with more immediate and Standardized Regression Coefficients (Beta) and 2 cernsfor survival. Acatastrophic developmen1 Determination Coefficients (R ) Jewish community, on the other hand, would Explanatory Variables PlaneofAnalysis changesinthecurrentlypredominantsocietal] Majority Jewish Past Israeli Comprehen- be noted, though, thatthe denial ofthe Holocal Society Commun. Immigr. Society sive phenomenon in many countries, and in certaiJ Abroad Abroad Absorp. Model grow into a violent, widespread and danger-fre 1983-1986 Several interesting lessons can be drawn frl Percapitaenergyconsump. -.611*' -.335 Political freedom index in analysis ofmass migrations ofJewssince the 5 country oforigin -.083 (Table 3). Similarlinesofdevelopmentcharact! %Jewish pop. growth abroad -.584* -.323 ration from , Morocco, Tunisia, Algeri %children in J. day schools .177 %non-veteran olim (1973 Union, notwithstandingthatthe numbersvari and after) -.601'* -.098 countries- rangingfrom theexodusofahighly Distance ofcountry of thetotaldeparture ofwhole JewishpopulatioD origin from Israel .450 Reaction to war in Israel first to leave were those harboring the stronge (one year later)**' .555** .372** to Israel. The second stage saw the depart Reaction to %unemployed in number of emigrants, with a concomitant fa: Israel*" .025 tionofthosegoingto Israel. Those wholeftlas1 R' .327 .345 .239 .314 .611 the worst conditions, included population strl solidly established economically, and more as

1973-1986 point of view of Jewish identity. By this Sta Percapitaenergyconsump. -.529*' -.342** inclination for aliyah. In each ofthe cases cit Political freedom index in Israelgraduallygavewayto a growing tendeD country oforigin -.180 native destinations in the West. Similar pat %Jewish pop. growth abroad -.645* -.369** %children in J. dayschools .059 centyears, albeit on a smaller scale, when Je1 %non-veteran olim (1973 Western countries, such as South Africaand P and after) -.575*' -.254 evolvingcircumstancesgenerated emigratioI Distance ofcountry of origin from Israel .136 Today, the two principal and most signifio Reaction to war in Israel tion reservoirs in a discussion ofaliyah prosl (one year later)'" States and the Soviet Union. An analysis of I Reaction to %unemployed in national political conditions likely to fomen1 Israel*** -.228 in Soviet emigration policies is beyond the 5 R' .412 .410 .255 .387 .775 Itisnoteworthy, however, thatSovietJ ewry Significantat.O1 level. share a large number ofbasic socio-demogra: Significantat .05 level. 9 ••• This variable was constructed on the basis ofseparate bi-variate analyses ofthe rela­ mentioned above. Therefore, there is no re tionships between annual changes in Israeli society and changes in each country's future emigration, ifany, will proceed along alwah rates. It expresses the promptness of response of aliyah fluctuations from a from those detailed in our previous discussic given country over time to events in Israel. In the regression data presented here the connec.tion has been examined between this response and the strength of aliyah devoted themselves to the cause of Soviet JE regardIng each ofthe countriesinvestigated. the current aliyah potential from that coun1 Sources: Majority society: United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook 1984; Freedom House, Freedom at Issue, January-February, 1987; The Intemational Human persons. This figure represents about 25 perc Suffering Index, Population Crisis Committee, Washington, 1987. berofJewsinthe SovietUnion, accordingto1 Jewish communities abroad: Jewish population estimates, Division ofJewish Demogra­ phy and Statistics, Institute ofContemporaryJewry, TheHebrew UniversityofJerusalem • See M. Altshuler, Soviet JewrySince the Second We (see note to Table 1); First Census ofJewish Schools in the Diaspora, 1981/2-1982/3. Social Structure, Westport (Greenwood Press) 198 Past absorption: Central BureauofStatistics(CBS), Population & Housing Census, 1983. Israeli society: dummy variable (wars); CBS, Statistical Abstract ofIsrael, various issues. and Urban Demography, No.5.) Table 2 breakdowncoulddevelopasa resultofmajormilitary,politicalor ummaryo/Principal Variables economic crises. Were such major crises to be fomented in the Variance in AliyahRatesPer 10,000Jews West, andparticularlyintheleadingcountries, theirgrave rami­ !O Western Countries, 1973-1986 fications would relegate the question of aliyah to a secondary !ized Regression Coe./fieients (Beta) and place as compared with more immediate and widespread con­ Jetermination Coe./fieients (R 2) cerns for survival. Acatastrophic development which affects the Jewish community, on the other hand, would require dramatic lS Plane ofAnalysis changes inthecurrentlypredominantsocietalpatterns. Itshould Majority Jewish Past Israeli Comprehen- be noted, though, thatthe denial ofthe Holocaust is a worrisome Society Commun. Immigr. Society sive Abroad Abroad Absorp. Model phenomenon in many countries, and in certain conditions could grow into a violent, widespreadand danger-fraughtfactor. ;ump. -.611 ** -.335 Several interesting lessons can be drawn from a comparative !xin analysis ofmass migrations ofJewssincetheSecond World War -.083 (Table 3). SimilarlinesofdevelopmentcharacterizeJewishemig­ ~broad -.584* -.323 hools .177 ration from Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and the Soviet 373 Union, notwithstandingthatthenumbersvaried ineachofthese -.601** -.098 countries- rangingfrom theexodusofahighlyselectminority,to .450 thetotaldeparture ofwholeJewishpopulations. Atallevents, the el first to leave were those harboring the strongest inclination to go .555** .372** yedin to Israel. The second stage saw the departure of the largest .025 number of emigrants, with a concomitant falloff in the propor­ tionofthose goingto Israel. Those who leftlast, sometimesunder .327 .345 .239 .314 .611 the worst conditions, included population strata that were more solidly established economically, and more assimilatedfrom the point of view of Jewish identity. By this stage, there was little unp. -.529** -.342** :in inclination for aliyah. In each ofthe cases cited, immigration to -.180 Israelgraduallygave way to a growingtendencyto seek outalter­ IJroad -.645* -.369** native destinations in the West. Similar patterns ensued in re­ ools .059 cent years, albeit on a smaller scale, when Jews left oreven .3 Westerncountries, such as South Africa and Argentina, in which -.575** -.254 evolvingcircumstancesgenerated emigration. .136 Today, the two principal and most significant Jewish popula­ i tion reservoirs in a discussion ofaliyah prospects are the United .580* .346** edin States and the Soviet Union. An analysis of domestic and inter­ -.228 national political conditions likely to foment a dramatic change in Soviet emigration policies is beyond the scope of this article. .412 .410 .255 .387 .775 Itisnoteworthy, however, thatSovietJewryandWesternJewry share a large number ofbasic socia-demographic characteristics lrUeted on the basis ofseparate bi-variate analyses ofthe rela­ mentioned above. 9 Therefore, there is no reason to believe that ual changes in Israeli society and changes in each country's ;as the promptness of response of aliyah fluctuations from a future emigration, ifany, will proceed along lines very different 3 to events in Israel. In the regression data presented here, the from those detailed in our previous discussion. Circles that have zamined between this response and the strength of aliyah I1Iltries investigated. devoted themselves to the cause of Soviet Jewry often estimate United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook 1984; Freedom the current aliyah potential from that country at some 400,000 - Issue, January-February, 1987; The International Human persons. Thisfigure representsabout 25 percentofthetotal num­ ]lulation CrisisCommittee, Washington, 1987. i: JeWish population estimates, Division ofJewish Demogra­ berofJews inthe SovietUnion, accordingto thelatestpopulation :fContemporaryJewry, The HebrewUniversityofJerusalem .sus0/Jewish Schools in the Diaspora, 1981/2-I982/3. • See M. Altshuler, Soviet Jewry Since the Second World War: Population and -eau ofStatistics (CBS), Population & Housing Census, 1983. Social Structure, Westport (Greenwood Press) 1987 IStudies in Population ;IDle (warsI; CBS, StatisticalAbstract a/Israel, various issues. and Urban Demography, No.5.) 110 III Table 3 system, andintheUnitedStatesinparticular,aI Selected Examples ofMass Jewish Migration, 1948-1985 centofthe late 1920s. According to this mechar Period, No. ofMigrants, %Olim to Israel ofTotal Migrants· major financial crisis, originating in the Uni plunge the entire Westinto a prolongedeconom Country ofOrigin This is not the place to analyze the validity 01 Stage Egypt Morocco, Algeria USSR What is of interest to us is the special place he Tunisia Americaneconomicsystem. Thefactisthatthe~ Years Total 1948-66 1950-79 1950-79 1968-86 prominentplace thatis very exposed to public I I 1948-55 1950-59 1950-59 1968-75 and prolonged crisis aftlicting the stock mark II 1956-59 1960-69 1960-69 1976-80 tern, production capacity and standard of liv III 1960-66 1970-79 1970-79 1981-85 States could place Jewsatthe centerofhostile, No. ofmigrants Total 63,000 393,000 137,000 267,000 lent attention. In consequence, the excellentaJ

I 23,000 176,000 38,000 118,000 currentlyenjoyed by American Jewrycould bE II 34,000 192,000 98,000 133,000 Itshouldbeborne inmindthatintheeventof; III 6,000 25,000 1,000 16,000 in the United Statesand the Western world, lsl Average annual Total 3,300 13,100 4,550 14,050 not be an easy one. Israel will suffer due to tl: migrants lockings ofwhich it partakes, and because con I 2,900 17,600 3,800 14,750 II 8,500 19,200 9,800 26,600 ments and economic aid from the West will dr III 850 2,500 100 3,200 tionswillclearlyimpingeupon Israel'sabilityI %to Israel of Total 48 72 8 61 for new immigrants. total migrants I 61 77 11 91 II 44 72 7 40 Summaryand Conclusions III 25 40 0 26 • Crude estimates. It emerges thatthe question ofwhether mass Sources: IsraelCentralBureauofStatistics;S. DellaPergola, .JewishPopulationinthe 19th the past can be answered, at least in part, wi" and 20thCenturies',inJ.M. Landau(ed.), The Jews inOttomanEgypt11517-1914) (Hebrew),Misgav Yerushalaim, Jerusalem, 1988,pp. 27-62; D. Bensimon, S. DellaPergola, considerable information thathas accumulate La populationjuive de France: socio-demographie et identite, Jerusalem, Hebrew Univer­ istics ofaliyah and other Jewish migrations iJ sity ofJerusalem, and , Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1984; D. Prital led.), The Jews ofthe Soviet Union (Hebrew), The Public Council for Soviet Jewry, Vol. 10, primary message to the Israeli public is that (.i 1987,p.315. teric phenomenon but an outcome ofthe actio tors operating with a certain regularity in e~mates. Furthermore, the institutional systems competing World System, diaspora Jewry, and Israeli sa with the Zionist movement in aiding and directing Jewish emi­ mostofthefactors discussed herewillcontinu grants from countries ofdistress aretoday operating more vigor­ the moderate aliyah trends ofrecentyears. ouslythantheydidyearsago. The logical conclusionis thatinthe As regards the factors that explain current t. event of large-scale Jewish emigration from the USSR, only a nificantofthem evidently relate to the World fraction will turn to Israel, as, indeed, the experience ofthe past tification in the realms of political power, few years has already shown. ment, and individual liberties. From the poin Even less is there place to discuss the possibility ofmass aliyah Israeli values, this conclusion is likely to ] under conditions of distress from the United States. The factors However, a realisticperceptionofIsrael'spIa. liable to destabilize American society seem very distant and tern in an era of attenuated ideology, could­ extremely fanciful. Such speculations are perhaps warranted by standing of past migration movements and e recent developments in one realm alone - the American econo­ loymentforthose ofthefuture. Anychangesi my. We refertoa troublinghypothesis, whichhasrecentlygained will also affect Israel, whether directly or iJ: currency among some researchers and in the media, regarding impinge upon the standing of diaspora Jewr long-term economic cycles in the United States. The economist aliyahjIends. Kondratyeff developed a theory of economic cycles of 50-60 ,. The lecture on which this article is based was deL years. Exponents ofthis approach maintain that some ofthe de­ October 1987 the stock exchanges in New York and velopments atthe end ofthe 1980sinthe international financial suffered unprecedented declines.

112 113 Table 3 system, and inthe UnitedStatesinparticular, arehighlyreminis­ "pleso/MassJewish Migration, 1948-1985 centofthe late 1920s. According to thismechanical prediction, a Kigrants, %Olim to Israel o/Total Migrants * major financial crisis, originating in the United States, could Country ofOrigin plunge the entire Westinto a prolonged economic depression. 10 -tage This is not the place to analyze the validity ofsuch conjecture. Egypt Morocco, Algeria USSR Tunisia What is of interest to us is the special place held by Jews in the ~tal 1948-66 1950-79 1950-79 1968-86 Americaneconomicsystem. Thefactisthattheyoccupyacentral, prominentplace that is very exposed to publicopinion. Aserious 1948-55 1950-59 1950-59 1968-75 and prolonged crisis afflicting the stock market, monetary sys­ 1956-59 1960-69 1960-69 1976-80 :1 tem, production capacity and standard of living of the United 1960-66 1970-79 1970-79 1981-85 States could place Jewsatthe center ofhostile, perhaps even vio­ :Jtal 63,000 393,000 137,000 267,000 lent attention. In consequence, the excellentandstable situation 23,000 176,000 38,000 118,000 currentlyenjoyed by American Jewrycould be undermined. 34,000 192,000 98,000 133,000 Itshould beborneinmindthatinthe eventofaneconomiccrisis I 6,000 25,000 1,000 16,000 in the United Statesand the Western world, Israel'sposition will ttal 3,300 13,100 4,550 14,050 not be an easy one. Israel will suffer due to the economic inter­ 2,900 17,600 3,800 14,750 lockings ofwhich it partakes, and because contributions, invest­ 8,500 19,200 9,800 26,600 ments and economic aid from the West will dry up. These condi­ 850 2,500 100 3,200 tionswillclearlyimpingeuponIsrael'sabilitytoserveasa shelter -tal 48 72 8 61 for new immigrants.

61 77 11 91 44 72 7 40 Summary and Conclusions 25 40 0 26 Itemerges that the question ofwhether mass aliyah is a thing of .reauofStatistics;S. DellaPergola, .JewishPopulationinthe 19th es', inJ.M. Landau led.), TheJews in Ottoman Egypt (1517-1914) the past can be answered, at least in part, with reference to the Iaim, Jerusalem, 19BB,pp. 27-62; D. Bensimon, S. DellaPergola, considerable information that has accumulated aboutcharacter­ =e: socw-demographie et identite, Jerusalem, Hebrew Univer­ is, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1984; D. Prital istics ofaliyah and other Jewish migrations in recent years. The -t Union (Hebrew), The Public Council for SovietJewry, Vol. 10, primary message to the Israeli public is that aliyah is not an eso­ teric phenomenon but an outcome of the action ofdefinable fac­ tors operating with a certain regularity in three spheres: the :more, the institutional systems competing World System, diaspora Jewry, and Israeli society. Presumably, )vement in aiding and directing JeWish emi­ mostofthefactors discussed herewillcontinueto operate, as will :es ofdistress are todayoperatingmorevigor­ the moderate aliyah trends ofrecentyears. yearsago. Thelogical conclusionisthatinthe As regards the factors that explain current trends, the most sig­ ! Jewish emigration from the USSR, only a nificantofthem evidently relate tothe World Systemand itsstra­ I Israel, as, indeed, the experience ofthe past tification in the realms of political power, economic develop­ !yshown. ment, andindividual liberties. FromthepointofviewofJewish­ dace to discuss the possibility ofmass aliyah Israeli values, this conclusion is likely to look disappointing. distress from the United States. The factors However, a realisticperceptionofIsrael'splace intheWorld Sys­ ~ American society seem very distant and tem in an era of attenuated ideology, could deepen our under­ Such speculations are perhaps warranted by standing ofpast migration movements and enable a proper dep­ ;s in one realm alone - the American econo­ loymentfor those ofthefuture. AnychangesintheWorldSystem Jblinghypothesis, whichhasrecentlygained will also affect Israel, whether directly or indirectly, as well as ne researchers and in the media, regarding impinge upon the standing ofdiaspora Jewry, and hence also of cycles in the United States. The economist aliyahj;rends. )ed a theory of economic cycles of 50-60 this approach maintain that some ofthe de­ 10 The lecture on which this article is based was delivered in May 1987. In _d ofthe 1980s in the international financial October 1987 the stock exchanges in New York and other Western countries suffered unprecedented declines. 112 113 From a Jewish standpoint, the competition already noted between tendencies of entrenchment in local life, and growing assimilation, relegates aliyah to the status of a distant goal possessing very low priority for the overwhelming majorityofJews. AftertheIsraelioptionwasredefinedfollowing the Six-Day Waralonglines more compatible with the needsand tastes of Western Jewry, the meager aliyah from the West may reasonably be interpreted as amounting to refusal. Demography in Eretz-Isrc Froman Israeliviewpoint, theeffectofchangesinIsraelisociety on aliyah prospects is less than is generally thought. An obstacle 1988 and the Year 2000 that, inthepresentconditions, isvirtuallyinsurmountable, isthe disjunction between the economic structure of the majority of diaspora Jewry - characteristic of a minority society - and the economic structure ofthe majority Jewish society inthe State of Israel. Nonetheless, itisstillpossibletoimprovetheabsorptionof olim, many of whom, especially from the West, leave Israel within a few years. All the signs are that voluntary large-scale aliyah is not on the cards in the near future, although neither is there any reason to Arnon Soffer believe that the modest number of olim in recent years will This essay looks at the demographic map of undergo a sizable reduction. Mass aliyah underconditions ofdis­ basis ofa forecast ofthe Central Bureau ofsu: tress appears even less likely, and even ifmass aliyah does devel­ view the demographic problem constitutes t op, the circumstances of its generation would be so severe as to ger to the foundations of the Jewish-Zionist makeitundesirable, given itshighlynegativeimplications inthe mands bold and difficult decisions in ordeJ: humansphere and the extremely high price it will entail. Nevertheless, Israel is not exempt from promoting aliyah on before itistoo late. Some people espouse a more optimistic aI= various planes. Above and beyond everything else, cultivation of ceding the existence of a demographic prob the Jewish identity in the diaspora will contribute to the sheer will be solved by expelling from Ere survivaloftheJewsthere; secondly, itwillincreasealiyahrather voluntary exodus or, alternatively, by me. than alternative migrations ifimpelling political-economic con­ immigrationthatwill stem the demographic ditions do arise. Cultivation oftheJewishidentityinIsraelcould Which isthe more reliable approach? also aid aliyah, as it will lead to an improved absorption ofolim, A forecast is not a prophecy. It is based OJ and, equallyimportant, toadeclineinemigration, whichisoneof existingata pointoftime inthe past, a setofc the factors interfering with the development ofaliyah. a pointoftimeinthepresent, andthetrends ~ Interms offorecasts concerningthe JewishpopulationinIsrael between. The forecast, taking as its point of and their effect on strategic planning, aliyah today would not ap­ gent trends, seeks to discern the expected ( pearto constitute a source ofgrowth on which to pingreathopes. relatively near future (about fifteen years). Any effortto bringaboutan increase inthe Jewishpopulation, or experienceshowsthatunexpectedconvulsic at least to maintain current demographic balances, will have to forecast on its head, whetherfor good or for rely on other sources of growth. It is possible that a systematic lacking: could a Jew foresee in 1~ approach to the cultivation offamily, marriage, and natalitywill coming two decades (1930-1950)-from re~ beatthecenterofIsrael's demographic policyinthe yearsahead. that wracked the Jewish peo

• ArnonSoffer teaches GeographyatHaifaUniversit version of an article published in A. Hareven (ed.) Yet Another War - or Towards Peace?, Jerusalem (' tutel1988. Unless otherwise stated, all the sources I

[The Jerusalem Quarterly, Number Fifty-one (: 114