potentially, it could do so again in the future on a Although in recent years the relative weight of all clined with respect to other factors influencing d change, such as the balance of natural movement population (births and deaths) and yeridah (lit. 'c Hebrew wordused to denote emigration), aliyahcon potentiallysensitive and central factor in Israel's10: tegic planning. AliyahreferstothemovementofJewsfromthedia. el. An analysis of the prospects for large-scale aliVe;; Mass Aliyah - AThing ofthe Past? with an appraisal of its characteristics, necessitate and ramified examination. Suchan analysis should (1) the basic characteristics and trends of diaspol reservoir ofthe potential aliyah in question; (2) the major t!ends ofaliyah in the past and pres. view of Jewish immigration to Israel should also countother migratory movementswhich havetrac stitutedanimportantfactor for change inJewish SI (3) Jewish population distribution worldwide aJ Sergio DellaPergola country movementofJewsfrom the more general the political, economic and social status ofthe COUD The question ofmass aliyah, or aliyah in general (aliyah -liter­ and their interconnections; ally'ascending' - isthewordIsraelisuse to denoteimmigrationto (4) Israel'splace inthatoverallinternationalcor. Israel), isclosely bound up with one ofIsrael's paramountdemo­ (5) the dominant processes unfolding within lSI graphicpredicaments. l Because ofthe conditions in which Israel recent years, both in general terms, and with spo finds itself, great importance attaches to the rate of population immigration and immigrantabsorption. growth and changes inpopulation structure thatoccurdue to that Any survey of these diverse topics should mai: growth over time. These developments bear significant econo­ balance between, onthe one hand, a general, them mic, social, and security implications. Some examples: the tive of demographic processes, and their histori. balanc~ between different national-religious-ethnic population economiccontexts, and, ontheotherhand, thema groups In Israel and the region; various aspects relating to econo­ aspects of certain elements of these processes in t micplanningand manpowermanagement; andthe development Israeli experience. To find the middle road betw and exploitation of human resources. In the past, the scope of and the particular demands a considerable effort aliyah has profoundly affected these processes, and, at least must refrain from adopting an emotional approe intoitsreasoningexpressionsofhopesandfears, c • S. ~ella~ergola teaches intheInstituteofContemporaryJewry, TheHebrew Umverslty of Jerusalem. This essay was first published (in Hebrew) in' A lets its arguments be swayed by transparent pc Hareven (ed.), Towards the Year2000: Yet Another War- or Towardspea~e?' guery. Unfortunately, attitudes such as these seel Jerusalem (Van Leer JerusalemInstitute) 1988. ., ofwhatappears inthe mediaconcerningsubject: I This article was prepared within the framework of the Division of Jewish portance for Israel and for the Jewish world as a Demograph! an~ Statistics at the Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The ~ebrew u~lverslty ofJerusalem. Mr. Zvi Richterprovided much assistance In processIng ~e .data. The reader is also directed to the following articles: S. DeliaPergola, AlWah, Yeridah, andOtherDemographicProblems', inA. Har­ Aliyah and OtherJewish Migrations: General As even (ed.), Is It Really Hard to Be an Israeli? (Hebrew), Jerusalem (Van Leer J.erusalem Foundation) 1983, pp. 225-256; S. DeliaPergola, 'On the Differen­ Aliyahis usuallydescribedintermsof'waves': y. ual Frequency of Western Migration to Israel', in J. Frankel (ed.), Studies in growthintheinflowofimmigrants, followed by Contemporary Jewry, Bloomington (Indiana University Press), Vol. I, 1984, constantlyrecurringcycle. Inthe periodsincetl: pp. 292-315; S. DeliaPergola, 'Aliyah and other Jewish Migrations: Toward an Integrated Perspective', in U.O. Schmelz and G. Nathan (eds.) Studies in waves, ofwhichthe onsetparalleled Israel's ind the pOPulat~ono~Israel in Honoro/Roberto Bachi, Jerusalem (M~gnesPress, have tendedto become ever weaker. Hebrew UmversltyofJerusalem) 1986 (Scripta Hierosolymitana Vol XXX) Amore comprehensive historical perspectives pp.I72-209. ' , 97 [The Jerusalem Quarterly, Number Fifty-Qne (Summer 1989)] 30 i .....~ \ potentially, it could do so again in the future on a large scale. Although in recent years the relative weight of aliyah has de­ clined with respect to other factors influencing demographic change, such as the balance of natural movement within the population (births and deaths) and yeridah (lit. 'descent', the Hebrew word used to denote emigration), aliyahcontinuesto bea potentiallysensitive and centralfactor in Israel's long-term stra­ tegic planning. Aliyahrefers to the movementofJ ewsfromthediaspora to Isra­ iyah - AThing ofthe Past? el. An analysis of the prospects for large-scale aliyah, combined with an appraisal of its characteristics, necessitates a thorough and ramified examination. Such an analysis shouldfocus on: (1) the basic characteristics and trends of diaspora Jewry, the reservoir ofthe potential aliyahin question; (2) the major trends ofaliyah in thepast andpresent. Acorrect view of Jewish immigration to Israel should also take into ac­ countother migratory movementswhich have traditionallycon­ stituted an importantfactor for change inJewishsociety; Pergola (3) Jewish population distribution worldwide and country-to­ countrymovement ofJewsfrom the moregeneralperspective of "mass aliyah, or aliyah in general (aliyah -liter­ thepolitical, economicandsocialstatus ofthecountriesinvolved - is thewordIsraelisuse todenoteimmigrationto and their interconnections; ? bound up with one ofIsrael'sparamountdemo­ (4) Israel'splace in thatoverall international context; 1 ments. Because ofthe conditions in which Israel (5) the dominant processes unfolding within Israeli society in .t importance attaches to the rate of population recent years, both in general terms, and with special regard to 1ges inpopulation structurethatoccurdue to that immigrationand immigrantabsorption. ;e. These developments bear significant econo­ Any survey of these diverse topics should maintain a proper :I security implications. Some examples: the balance between, on the one hand, a general, theoretical perspec­ I different national-religious-ethnic population tive of demographic processes, and their historical, social, and md the region; various aspects relatingto econo- economiccontexts, and, ontheotherhand, themanifestlyunique Imanpowermanagement; andthedevelopment aspects of certain elements of these processes in the Jewish and of human resources. In the past, the scope of Israeli experience. To find the middle road between the general tundly affected these processes, and, at least and the particular demands a considerable effon. Above all, one must refrain from adopting an emotional approach that weaves chesinthe Institute ofContemporaryJewry, The Hebrew intoitsreasoningexpressionsofhopesandfears,or-worse-that ISalem. This essay was first published (in Hebrew) in: A. lets its arguments be swayed by transparent political demago­ .ardsthe Year2000: Yet Another War - orTowards Peace? ~r Jerusalem Institute) 1988. guery. Unfonunately, attitudes such as these seem to color much 'epared within the framework of the Division of Jewish ofwhatappears inthe mediaconcerningsubjects ofcardinalim­ Statistics at the Institute of Contemporary Jewry, The portance for Israel and for the Jewish world as a whole. •ofJerusalem. Mr. Zvi Richterprovided much assistance Ita. The readeris also directed to the following articles: S. Ih. Yeridah, and OtherDemographicProblems', inA. Har­ !ly Hard to Be an Israeli? (Hebrew), Jerusalem (Van Leer Aliyah and OtherJewish Migrations: General Aspects ion) 1983, pp. 225-256; S. DellaPergola, 'On the Dilferen­ 'estern Migration to Israel', in J. Frankel (ed.), Studies in Aliyahis usually describedintermsof'waves': yearsofmounting "y, Bloomington (Indiana University Press), Vol. 1, 1984, growthintheinflow ofimmigrants,followed byyearsofebb, ina laPergola, 'Aliyah and other Jewish Migrations: Toward constantlyrecurringcycle. Intheperiodsince thelargestofthese ective', in U.O. Schmelz and G. Nathan (eds.). Studies in waves, ofwhich the onsetparalleled Israel's independence, they 'ael in Honor a/RobertoBachi, Jerusalem IMagnes Press, DfJerusalem) 1986 (Scripta Hierosolymitana, Vol XXX), have tended to becomeeverweaker. Amore comprehensive historical perspective showsthataliyah em Quarterly, Number Fifty-Qne (Summer 1989)) 97 ---\ Table 1 constitutedapproximately3percentofallJewishintercontinen­ talmigrationsworldwideintheperiodfrom the 1880stotheFirst Immigrants to Israel World War; about 30 per cent between 1919 and 1948; some 82 From 20 Western Countries, 1973-19l percentinthepeakyearsuntil 1951 ;and50-70percent(i.e., still Absolute Numbers and Rates Per 10,000­ the major part of Jewish migration) until the second half of the In Country o/Origin 1970s. In the past decade, aliyah has evidently regressed to less Olimpe. No.ofOlim CountrY than 50 percentoftotal Jewishmigration. (These estimatestake 1973 197 1973 1978 1983 1977 19B: into account yeridah - emigration from Israel - as a factor in 1977 1982 1986 international Jewish migration.) 10.7 9 1,573 1,452 969 Canada 5.6 4, The scale ofJewish migration, aliyah included, has tapered off 15,556 13,260 9,933 US 32.6 2L 1,141 815 573 in recent years. From the mid-1950s until the early 1980s - that Australia 541