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Combining Advanced Analytics and the Generalized Matching Law in NFL Football Play- Calling Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Dissertations Graduate College 4-2018 Mixing Matching and Sabermetrics: Combining Advanced Analytics and the Generalized Matching Law in NFL Football Play- Calling Jacob Bradley Western Michigan University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/dissertations Part of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior Commons, and the Industrial and Organizational Psychology Commons Recommended Citation Bradley, Jacob, "Mixing Matching and Sabermetrics: Combining Advanced Analytics and the Generalized Matching Law in NFL Football Play-Calling" (2018). Dissertations. 3241. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/dissertations/3241 This Dissertation-Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate College at ScholarWorks at WMU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at WMU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MIXING MATCHING AND SABERMETRICS: COMBINING ADVANCED ANALYTICS AND THE GENERALIZED MATCHING LAW IN NFL FOOTBALL PLAY-CALLING by Jacob Bradley A dissertation submitted to the Graduate College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Psychology Western Michigan University April 2018 Dissertation Committee: Douglas Johnson, Ph.D., Chair Heather McGee, Ph.D. Thomas Critchfield, Ph.D. Derek Reed, Ph.D. MIXING MATCHING AND SABERMETRICS: COMBINING ADVANCED ANALYTICS AND THE GENERALIZED MATCHING LAW IN NFL FOOTBALL PLAY-CALLING Jacob Bradley, Ph.D. Western Michigan University, 2018 The fields of advanced analytics in sports and quantitative analysis of behavior as it applies to sports have developed independently over the last several decades. Both fields share the common goal of using a quantitative approach to describe and predict behavior within sports beyond the common traditional verbal accounts. To date, the two fields have not directly intersected. The current study provides an overview of advanced analytics and quantitative analysis of behavior in sports, demonstrates how the two fields can be combined to better account for the behavioral processes involved in decision- making in sports, and identifies several possible ways the two fields can be combined in future research. The Generalized Matching Equation (GME) from quantitative analysis of behavior has been successfully used to account for NFL play-calling behavior in previous studies when yards-gained on a play was the measure of reinforcement. The current study compares GME models using yards-gained as the measure of reinforcement with GME models using Success Rate—a seminal advanced analytics metric in football assessing the value of a play—as the measure of reinforcement. The GME models using Success Rate as the measure of reinforcement were largely found to account for more variance in play-calling behavior and provide better generalized matching outcomes, thus demonstrating the potential value of combining advanced analytics in sports with the quantitative analysis of behavior to improve the description and prediction of choice behavior in elite sports. Copyright by Jacob L. Bradley 2018 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to begin by thanking my advisor, Dr. Douglas Johnson for his guidance throughout this project. His continued direction and support were critical to completing this study. I would also like to thank In addition, I would like to thank to my doctoral committee: Dr. Douglas Johnson, Dr. Heather McGee, Dr. Thomas Critchfield, and Dr. Derek Reed. Their expertise, insight and suggestions, especially in the areas of behavior analysis, quantitative analysis of behavior, comparison of quantitative models, and applications of quantitative models of choice to sport behavior, made it possible for me to pursue and complete this project. Most importantly, I would like to thank my wife, Jamie, for her support throughout the research and writing process and her encouragement to pursue my goals in advancing my education. Lastly, I would like to thank Western Michigan University’s Graduate College for their consideration. Jacob L. Bradley ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................. viii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................ ix INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1 Advanced Analytics in Elite Sports ............................................................ 1 Advanced Analytics in Football.................................................................. 8 Success Rate.................................................................................... 8 Expected Points Added ................................................................... 10 Win Probability Added ................................................................... 11 Quantitative Analysis of Behavior in Sports .............................................. 12 Matching Law ................................................................................. 13 Applications to Basketball .............................................................. 15 Applications to Hockey................................................................... 21 Applications to Baseball ................................................................. 22 Applications to Football .................................................................. 24 Limitations and Goals ................................................................................. 37 Preview of the Proposed Research .............................................................. 42 GENERAL METHODS.......................................................................................... 43 Data Collection and Classification ............................................................. 43 GME Analyses ........................................................................................... 44 iii Table of Contents—Continued ANALYSIS 1: SEASON-AGGREGATE LEAGUE OUTCOMES ...................... 45 Analysis 1A: Yards-Gained as Reinforcement .......................................... 46 Analysis .......................................................................................... 46 Results ............................................................................................ 46 Analysis 1B: Success Rate as Reinforcement ............................................ 47 Analysis .......................................................................................... 47 Results ............................................................................................ 47 Analysis 1 Comparison ............................................................................... 48 Analysis .......................................................................................... 48 Results ............................................................................................ 49 Analysis 1 Discussion ................................................................................ 50 ANALYSIS 2: GAME-BY-GAME LEAGUE OUTCOMES ................................ 56 Analysis 2A: Yards-Gained as Reinforcement .......................................... 57 Analysis .......................................................................................... 57 Results ............................................................................................ 57 Analysis 2B: Success Rate as Reinforcement ............................................ 57 Analysis .......................................................................................... 57 Results ............................................................................................ 57 Analysis 2 Comparison ............................................................................... 58 Analysis .......................................................................................... 58 Results ............................................................................................ 59 iv Table of Contents—Continued Analysis 2 Discussion ................................................................................ 60 ANALYSIS 3: GAME-BY-GAME INDIVIDUAL TEAM OUTCOMES ............ 62 Analysis 3A: Yards-Gained as Reinforcement .......................................... 64 Analysis .......................................................................................... 64 Results ............................................................................................ 64 Analysis 3B: Success Rate as Reinforcement ............................................ 64 Analysis .......................................................................................... 64 Results ............................................................................................ 66 Analysis 3 Comparison ............................................................................... 66 Analysis .......................................................................................... 66 Results ............................................................................................ 67 Analysis 3 Discussion ................................................................................ 70 ANALYSIS 4: CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS OF MATCHING WITH WINNING PERCENTAGE...................................................................................
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