UNIVERSITY OF PIRAEYS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, BUSINESS AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN STUDIES GRADUATE PROGRAM IN ENERGY: STRATEGY, LAW & ECONOMICS Hellenic EEZ – Geopolitical Goals and Strategic Dynamics From: Markopoulos Andreas R.N. 18035 Master thesis to: Dr. Athanasios Platias Dr. Petros Liacouras Dr. Ioannis Konstantopoulos Piraeus, November 28th, 2019 Table of Contents Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Table of figures .......................................................................................................................... 7 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 9 2 Energy resources and economic upheaval............................................................................. 10 2.1 Energean estimations and economic upheaval............................................................ 12 2.2 Economic perspectives with the usage of Liquified Natural Gas ............................... 23 2.3 Ecological aspects associated with the exploitation of Natural Gas ........................... 28 2.4 Combined Cycle Units, Natural gas and its advantages ............................................. 31 3 The EEZ of Cyprus and geopolitical goals of Greece. .......................................................... 34 3.1 The EEZ of Cyprus and exploitation of its discoveries .............................................. 34 3.2 The EEZ of Greece and potential discoveries ............................................................. 37 3.3 “EastMed and EuroAsia-Interconnector” ................................................................... 39 4 Strategy of EEZ delimitation and the impact of International Relations .............................. 43 4.1 Proclamation of the Hellenic Exclusive Economic Zone ........................................... 43 4.2 Delimitation of exclusive economic zones ................................................................. 49 4.2.1 Turkey ...................................................................................................................... 52 4.2.2 Cyprus, Israel and Egypt .......................................................................................... 77 4.2.3 Albania, Italy and Lybia........................................................................................... 81 5 Strategic dynamics and the Hellenic legacy .......................................................................... 92 5.1 Hellenic Exclusive Economic Zone as National Strategy .......................................... 92 5.2 Strategic partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean................................................. 100 5.3 Decisive movements for the Hellenic EEZ and energean transformation ................ 125 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 147 Reference list .......................................................................................................................... 150 2 ΥΠΕΥΘΥΝΗ ΔΗΛΩΣΗ / SOLEMN DECLARATION (άρθρο 8 Ν.1599/1986) / (article 8 par. 4 of Greek Law 1599/1986 ) Η ακρίβεια των στοιχείων που υποβάλλονται με αυτή τη δήλωση μπορεί να ελεγχθεί με βάση το αρχείο άλλων υπηρεσιών (άρθρο 8 παρ. 4 Ν. 1599/1986) / The accuracy of the information provided by this solemn declaration may be confirmed with data held by other authorities (article 8 par. 4 of Greek Law 1599/1986 ). Με ατομική μου ευθύνη και γνωρίζοντας τις κυρώσεις (2), που προβλέπονται από τις διατάξεις της παρ. 6 του άρθρου 22 του Ν. 1599/1986, δηλώνω ότι: / On my own responsibility and being fully aware of the penalties (3) stipulated under article 22 par. 6 of Greek Law 1599/1986, I hereby declare that: το έργο που εκπονήθηκε και παρουσιάζεται στην υποβαλλόμενη διπλωματική εργασία είναι αποκλειστικά ατομικό δικό μου. Όποιες πληροφορίες και υλικό που περιέχονται έχουν αντληθεί από άλλες πηγές, έχουν καταλλήλως αναφερθεί στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία. Επιπλέον τελώ εν γνώσει ότι σε περίπτωση διαπίστωσης ότι δεν συντρέχουν όσα βεβαιώνονται από μέρους μου, μου αφαιρείται ανά πάσα στιγμή αμέσως ο τίτλος. / the intellectual work fulfilled and submitted based on the delivered master thesis is exclusive property of mine personally. Appropriate credit has been given in this diploma thesis regarding any information and material included in it that have been derived from other sources. I am also fully aware that any misrepresentation in connection with this declaration may at any time result in immediate revocation of the degree title. Ημερομηνία/ Date: 28/11/2019 Ο – Η Δηλ./ The undersigned: Markopoulos Andreas (1) Αναγράφεται ολογράφως. / To be written in full. (2) «Όποιος εν γνώσει του δηλώνει ψευδή γεγονότα ή αρνείται ή αποκρύπτει τα αληθινά με έγγραφη υπεύθυνη δήλωση του άρθρου 8 τιμωρείται με φυλάκιση τουλάχιστον τριών μηνών. Εάν ο υπαίτιος αυτών των πράξεων σκόπευε να προσπορίσει στον εαυτόν του ή σε άλλον περιουσιακό όφελος βλάπτοντας τρίτον ή σκόπευε να βλάψει άλλον, τιμωρείται με κάθειρξη μέχρι 10 ετών». / «Anyοne that knowingly declares false facts to be true or denies or conceals true facts by virtue of a written statement under article 8, may be sentenced to imprisonment for at least three months. If the same person intended to obtain benefit for himself/herself or for another person to the detriment of a third party, or if said person intended to harm a third party, s/he may be sentenced up to ten years imprisonment». 3 My master thesis is devoted to all the promoters and contributors of the Hellenic Exclusive Economic Zone, be it scientists, politicians, diplomats or the important basis of Greek citizens, who helped with their engagement to set the topic of the Hellenic EEZ on the political agenda. With the establishment of the Cypriot EEZ by the former forever remembered President of Cyprus, Tassos Papadopoulos, a new dynamic for Hellenism and its prospects arose as he paved the way for the establishment for the EEZ's rights of the Cypriot Democracy. That is why we will combine in this work the Hellenic EEZ with the Τheory of International Relations, Game Theory and Power Theory. 4 Special thanks to My family and friends, who supported me throughout the hard time of the examinations while they always believed in me. My mother, who, remembering my childhood lesson as I listened to her saying to me; "Nobody would roll out the red carpet for you because everybody follows their own goals" Special thanks to Dr. Nikos Lygeros, for his valued advice, his support and inspiration to further study the scientific field of strategy, while explaining chrono-strategy to me, connecting historical and future events, showing me chrono-strategy to geostrategy examples, as well as their differences within the historical range. Quote: "A goal which is not possible now, would not necessarily be impossible in the future". Special thanks to my supervisor of this master thesis, Dr. Athanasios Platias, as well as Dr. Petros Liacouras and Dr. Ioannis Konstantopoulos, who helped me with their knowledge and experience in Geopolitics, International Relations and International Law, as well as with their time spent in order to support me completing this scientific paper. Special thanks Dr. Elias Konofagos, Dr. Antonis Foskolos and Dr. Nikos Lygeros, who helped me with their research, maps and illustrations for many years, sharing their knowledge about the prospects and opportunities deriving from hydrocarbon utilization and exploitation in order to help bring along a sustainable development for the Greek economy. Beside the above-mentioned researchers and scientists, I would like to thank all scientists, diplomats and other inspiring contributors such as Professor Theodore C. Kariotis. who is considered the " Father of the Greek EEZ", as well as Theresa Fokianou and last but not least, I want to thank the forever remembered Virginia Manasaki-Tavernaraki, who as a Regional Vice-Governor responsible for Energy and Industry in Crete, has produced great works, specifically in the energean sector and promoted actions and projects, taking all relevant planning for Crete in the EEZ's context a step ahead. I would also like to thank Athina Kechagias for her inspiration and support during the creation of this scientific work regarding the Hellenic EEZ. 5 Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to apply the theory of power on the determination of Greece in world affairs, especially in the utilization of its energean resources in the context of the Hellenic EEZ. I will analyze how the utilization of the Greek Sea power, which is dynamic and not static, in combination with the findings of hydrocarbons is creating the potential to develop a Hellenic leading role in the European Union. With the application of theory of decisions and game theory to the delimitation of the EEZ median-line on the basis of Voronoi diagrams, specific tools are used for a better overview in the context of EEZ delimitation strategy. This scientific paper illustrates, that the combination of Energy resource exploitation and the utilization of LNG Shipping as well as Greece's location as Energy transit will enforce the Hellenic Republic not only to