Governments of National Unity: Analyzing the Conditions Influencing Dissolution

Home , Coalition government, Opposition (politics), Yemeni Socialist Party

Prepared for the U.S. Government Office of South Asia Analysis

By Dylan Blake Olivia Butler Ryan Dunk Michelle Duren Katie Jenkins Joel Lashmore Allison Sambo

Workshop in International Public Affairs Spring 2015

For an online copy, see www.lafollette.wisc.edu/research-public-service/workshops-in-public-affairs [email protected]

The Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs is a teaching and research department of the University of Wisconsin–Madison. The school takes no stand on policy issues; opinions expressed in these pages reflect the views of the authors.

The University of Wisconsin–Madison is an equal opportunity and affirmative-action educator and employer. We promote excellence through diversity in all programs.

Table of Contents

List of Tables ...... iv List of Figures ...... iv Foreword ...... v Acknowledgments ...... vi Executive Summary ...... vii Introduction ...... 1 Literature Review ...... 2 Contextual Factors ...... 2 Government Output ...... 4 Survival Model and Methods ...... 8 GNU Selection and Dating ...... 8 Data Description ...... 8 Dependent Variable: Dissolution ...... 9 Independent Variables ...... 10 Statistical Model ...... 11 Survival Model Results ...... 12 Model 1: Dissolution with Conflict ...... 12 Model 2: Dissolution without Conflict ...... 15 Contextual Factors ...... 18 Government Output Factors ...... 18 Case Studies: Variations in Power-Sharing ...... 20 Tajikistan: 1997 General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord .... 20 Yemen: The 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement ...... 22 Sudan: 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement ...... 25 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ...... 28 Take No Action ...... 28 Increase Access To and Role in International Organizations for GNUs ...... 29 Strengthen Government Institutions ...... 29 Incentivize Multi-Dimensional Power Sharing ...... 29 Appendix A. Governments of National Unity 1975-2012 ...... 31 Appendix B. Technical Notes ...... 37 Semi-Parametric Model ...... 37 Cox Model ...... 37 Time-Variant Covariates ...... 38 Breslow vs. Efron Method for Approximating Discrete Likelihood of Failure ...... 38 Frailty ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix C. Model Specifications and Results ...... 39 References ...... 44

List of Tables

Table 1. Data Description ...... 9 Table 2. Predicted Relationship between Covariates and the Hazard Rate of Failure ...... 10 Table 3. Model 1 Dissolution with Conflict Results ...... 12 Table 4. Model 2 Dissolution with Peace Results ...... 15 Table A1. Database of identified GNUs, Country, Start and End Dates, Dissolution, and Type of Power-sharing Agreement ...... 31 Table A2. Listed Citations for Governments of National Unity ...... 34 Table C1. Model 1 Failure Results with Coefficients and Confidence Interval ...... 39 Table C2. Model 2: Success Results with Coefficients and Confidence Interval ...... 40 Table C3. GNU Summary Statistics by Duration, Model 1: Failure ...... 40 Table C4. GNU Summary Statistics by Duration, Model 2: Success ...... 41 Table C5. GNU Summary Statistics by Outcome of Interest ...... 41 Table C6. Summary Statistics for Rule of Law Index ...... 41 Table C7. Summary Statistics for Rule of Law Index, continued ...... 41 Table C8. Summary Statistics for GDP Growth ...... 42 Table C9. Summary Statistics for GDP Growth, Continued ...... 42 Table C10. Summary Statistics for Ideological Conflict ...... 42 Table C11. Summary Statistics for Ideological Conflict, Continued ...... 42 Table C12. Summary Statistics for Outcome: Stalemate ...... 43 Table C13. Summary Statistics for Outcome: Stalemate, Continued ...... 43

List of Figures

Figure 1. Dissolution Outcomes ...... 10 Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier Survival Distribution Function: Dissolution with Conflict Model ...... 14 Figure 3. Smoothed Hazard Function, by Median Rule of Law ...... 14 Figure 4. Kaplan-Meier Survival Distribution Function: Dissolution without Conflict Model ...... 16 Figure 5. Smoothed Hazard Function, by Ideological Conflict ...... 17

Foreword

The La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin−Madison offers a two- year graduate program leading to a Master of Public Affairs or a Master of International Public Affairs degree. In both programs, students develop analytical tools with which to assess policy responses to issues, evaluate implications of policies for efficiency and equity, and interpret and present data relevant to policy considerations.

Students in the Master of International Public Affairs program produced this report for the U.S. Government Office of South Asia Analysis. The students are enrolled in the Workshop in International Public Affairs, the capstone course in their graduate program. The workshop challenges the students to improve their analytical skills by applying them to an issue with a substantial international component and to contribute useful knowledge and recommendations to their client. It provides them with practical experience applying the tools of analysis acquired during three semesters of prior coursework to actual problems clients face in the public, non- governmental, and private sectors. Students work in teams to produce carefully crafted policy reports that meet high professional standards. The reports are research-based, analytical, evaluative, and (where relevant) prescriptive responses for real-world clients. This culminating experience is the ideal equivalent of the thesis for the La Follette School degrees in public affairs. While the acquisition of a set of analytical skills is important, it is no substitute for learning by doing.

The opinions and judgments presented in the report do not represent the views, official or unofficial, of the La Follette School or of the client for which the report was prepared.

Melanie Frances Manion Vilas-Jordan Professor of Public Affairs and Political Science May 2015

Acknowledgments

We offer sincere thanks to everyone who provided assistance and supported this project. We thank our clients for offering us the opportunity to produce this analysis, and thank them for their support throughout the project. We especially thank Professor Melanie Manion who was critical to the production of this report, and for her encouragement and criticism, pushing us to overcome each of our hurdles with the project. We also want to thank Professor Jon Pevehouse and Simon Haeder for their help with the methodology and technical aspects of the project. Special thanks to Karen Faster for her careful review and editorial support. Finally, this project would not have been possible without the support of the students and staff at the La Follette School of Public Affairs.

Executive Summary

We conducted research to understand the factors that contribute to the dissolution of governments of national unity (GNUs), and to what effect these factors contribute to peaceful dissolution or dissolution with conflict. Opposing groups or elite actors within a country create a GNU through codifying power-sharing provisions in a settlement that ends or forestall violence. Very little conclusive or quantitative research exists to support or refute the contention that GNUs can promote stability for conflict-affected countries. Our report seeks to resolve this ambiguity by offering evidence-based findings and recommendations for U.S. policy in relation to GNUs.

We used survival analysis and case studies to determine important conditions underlying GNU dissolution. Our two outcomes of interest were dissolution without conflict and dissolution with conflict. We analyzed variation in all GNUs formed from 1975 through 2012, incorporating measures of heterogeneity, conflict and agreement characteristics, institutional strength, international involvement, and economic development. Our report examined three case studies— Yemen, Sudan, and Tajikistan—to clarify the' pathways linking our independent variables with GNU durability.

Our survival model tested the impact of a variety of contextual characteristics and government outputs on the likelihood a GNU would dissolve with or without conflict. We found that the type of conflict preceding the formation of a GNU, the level of fractionalization in the country, the levels of economic growth, and the institutional strength of a GNU significantly influence the type of dissolution. A GNU emerging from a preceding conflict that was ideologically motivated was more likely to dissolve peacefully. Economic growth increased the likelihood a GNU would dissolve without conflict. Finally, our measure of institutional strength—rule of law—had a large and positive effect on peaceful dissolution. Our qualitative analysis documented and analyzed the importance of multi-dimensional power-sharing, including political, economic, military and territorial power-sharing provisions. It also identified the importance of agreement inclusivity and implementation—two characteristics that we cannot model quantitatively. With these two points, we expect agreements that are more fully implemented and do not exclude a major party will support peaceful transition to more permanent forms of government.

Our findings suggest the U.S. government can play an important role in promoting stability through GNUs. Regional and international actors have been vital to bringing parties together in negotiations, facilitating the formation of power-sharing agreements, and supporting the responsibilities of GNUs. These governments represent an important subset of coalition governments created during difficult transitional phases in those countries’ histories. The governments formed through these power-sharing agreements are tenuous and prone to instability. GNUs have a unique ability to unify past aggressors in a common vision for the future, and to usher in a new era of peace and stability.

vii

Introduction

Governments of national unity (GNUs) are negotiated, formalized power-sharing agreements among opposing parties or elites. They include provisions for power-sharing in political, economic, territorial, and military affairs. GNUs are a subset of coalition governments that form specifically to end or forestall violence. They are considered temporary or transitional, made in preparation for elections, the ratification of a new constitution or amendments, or the design and implementation of new governance institutions. The difficulty of the circumstances under which GNUs arise (i.e., conflict, political instability, or the credible threat of either), the nature of the agreements themselves, and the broader sociopolitical and economic context in which they exist affect their stability.

Research on how GNUs dissolve has extensively employed qualitative case study methodology to explore and predict the presence and magnitude of factors such as agreement characteristics, contextual factors, and government output on whether GNUs dissolve into conflict or into more stable, permanent forms of governance. The diversity of scholarly approaches and varying emphasis on predictive variables prevents any robust cross-national understanding of GNU functioning. While the qualitative approach can be instructive, a quantitative study offers a more generalizable, global picture.

Our objective is to identify variables that impact GNU dissolution, quantify the magnitude, and then uses three case studies to further characterize how these variables manifest.

To that end, this report: • synthesizes and analyzes literature relevant to GNUs to understand the contextual characteristics, agreement power-sharing provisions, and government output attributes that impact dissolution; • specifies and estimates a statistical model to determine the magnitude of attribute effects on dissolution; • uses case study methodology to further characterize the agreement and implementation attributes contributing to the dissolution of a GNU; and • highlights and evaluates policies that the U.S. government might employ to bolster the stability and peaceful dissolution of a GNU.

Our quantitative analysis of GNUs indicates that the type of conflict preceding the GNU, the level of fractionalization in the population, economic growth and institutional strength affect the likelihood a GNU dissolves with or without conflict. Our case studies qualitatively describe how agreement characteristics and exclusion of major parties in GNU formation and governance affects how GNUs dissolve. We recommend incorporating this analysis into risk analysis and other available assessment tools to develop responsive and appropriate policy.

Section I of this report establishes the theoretical background for our analysis. Section II outlines our data, methodology, and limitations. Section III reports our quantitative results, and Section IV discusses implications. Section V develops a case selection methodology, identifies three cases of GNUs, and highlights relevant attributes and outcomes. Section VI discusses the implications of this study and evaluates policies to enhance the likelihood GNUs dissolve peacefully.

Literature Review

In this project we develop a framework for understanding GNUs and factors contributing to their peaceful dissolution or their dissolution with conflict. GNUs are negotiated, formal settlements among opposing parties, groups, or elites that include one or more political, military, economic, and territorial power-sharing provisions. They are implemented to end or forestall violence, and are thus temporary in nature. If arrangements succeed, the key outputs are political stability, more permanent forms of governance, and the absence of conflict. Scholarship related to post- conflict power-sharing, post-conflict development, and regime stability is most informative in identifying relevant factors that enhance durability of these settlements.

This research area lacks clear conclusions for two reasons. First, case studies compose a substantial portion of GNU research. This methodology identifies the mechanisms of a unique instance of a unity government, but it is not necessarily generalizable to a larger sample of GNUs. Second, relevant quantitative analyses produce contradictory conclusions. Researchers commonly disagree over which factors influence how a GNU dissolves; even when they agree on variables, their conclusions are often contradictory. Still, the literature coalesces around two categories of influences: context of the conflict and end-of-conflict agreement, and government output.

Contextual Factors We identify three categories of contextual factors: social heterogeneity, the conflict that preceded the unity government agreement, and the agreement itself. Social Heterogeneity While experts frequently explain the link between a society’s heterogeneity and level of political stability as a positive linear relationship (i.e., greater heterogeneity leads to greater instability), quantitative analyses have clarified the underlying mechanisms of this relationship.

In comparative politics, heterogeneity describes three subsets of socio-cultural cleavages: interest-based, ideology-based, and identity-based cleavages (Weiffen and Merkel 2012). Researchers commonly use two conceptions of heterogeneity to quantify and measure it. The first, fractionalization, is the most widespread in the literature. Fractionalization increases linearly with the number of groups; it generally incorporates ethnic, linguistic, and religious heterogeneity measures in its calculation. The second measure of heterogeneity is polarization. Esteban and Schneider (2008) describe polarization as the “extent to which the population is clustered around a small number of distant poles” (Esteban and Schneider 2008, 133). Holding the distance between groups constant, polarization is maximized in instances with two equally powerful groups (Alesina et al. 2003, 177). Thus, a single society may lie at opposite ends of each conceptualization, simultaneously rating low on fractionalization and high on polarization (or vice versa).

Regardless of conceptualization, peace and stability literature recognizes heterogeneity as an important determinant of domestic conflict (Ellingsen 2000, 244). Many assume that the linkage is a simple positive linear relationship: Greater heterogeneity means a higher likelihood of political instability. However, most quantitative research does not substantiate this claim. Rather,

experts find that the relationship is best characterized as an inverted-U curve (Ellingsen 2000). In other words, as Ellingsen explains, the presence of a few large groups is associated with a higher risk of conflict, whereas highly diverse and highly homogeneous states face a lower risk of conflict (Esteban and Schneider 2008, 136). In Ellingsen’s (2000) analysis, conflict results from a simultaneous identification with one’s own group and a distancing from competing groups. Taking their analysis a step further, Wieffen and Merkel (2012) argue that heterogeneity does not inherently lead to cleavages in society (Weiffen and Merkel 2012). For cleavages to occur, political actors must transform identities into cleavages through politicization, mobilization, and organization. Their research concludes that heterogeneity harms democratic transition and consolidation only in cases where identity-based cleavages are politicized and escalated into violent conflict. Conflict Characterization GNUs are created to end an existing conflict or forestall an imminent conflict. Researchers agree that certain characteristics of the conflict that precedes establishment of a GNU help predict the stability of post-conflict peace. Indeed, almost all studies include measures of the following variables: conflict intensity, conflict duration, conflict motivation, and how the conflict ended.

Researchers typically measure conflict intensity by the number of conflict-related deaths (Binningsbø 2006; Fortna 2004; C. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003; Jarstad and Nilsson 2008; Mattes and Savun 2009; Werner 1999). Some researchers transform this statistic, using a rate such as deaths per month or deaths per year throughout the conflict (C. Hartzell, Hoddie, and Rothchild 2001). The two most commonly used conflict datasets—Correlates of War and the Armed Conflict Dataset—assign values to conflicts based on the level of deaths (e.g., greater than 1000 conflict-related deaths means that the conflict can be classified as a civil war) (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008). Studies almost unanimously find that the more intense a conflict—that is, the more conflict-related deaths sustained—the more likely a country will revert to conflict (Binningsbø 2006; Fortna 2004; C. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003; Jarstad and Nilsson 2008; Mattes and Savun 2009; Werner 1999). Researchers contend that high casualties create high levels of distrust and ill-will among parties, which can undermine the stability of any future agreement (C. A. Hartzell and Hoddie 2007). Thus, undermining the stability would likely also reduce the likelihood that a GNU would dissolve without conflict.

The second commonly used conflict characterization variable is conflict length (Binningsbø 2006, 2013; Fortna 2004). Most researchers find that the longer the conflict, the more intractable the disagreement, and therefore the less likely peace will endure.

Researchers also commonly characterize conflicts by type—economic, identity, ideological. Research shows that power-sharing agreements following an identity conflict are less likely to last than if the conflict was motivated by other factors, such as economic or distributional concerns (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008; C. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003). As outlined in the preceding section, other research has found identity conflicts are “particularly intractable” and thus are more likely to resume regardless of the strength of the power-sharing agreement (Kaufmann 2007).

Finally, many researchers find the nature of a conflict’s end is predictive of the subsequent peace duration (Binningsbø 2006; Binningsbø 2013; Fortna 2004; Mukherjee 2006). If an intrastate

conflict ends in decisive victory rather than stalemate, the likelihood of a return to conflict decreases anywhere from 70 percent to 90 percent (Fortna 2004). Other research goes further, offering specific peace durations. This research estimates that power sharing agreements maintain peace for an average of 117 months in cases where the existing government is victorious, an average of 88 months if the conflict results in an insurgency victory, and an average of 19 months in cases of stalemate (Mukherjee 2006). An extreme version of this scholarship argues that the international community should not intervene in intrastate conflicts, as a definitive internal military victory will lead to a longer-lasting peace (Toft 2006). Agreement Characterization Many researchers focus their attention on which provisions of power-sharing agreements contribute most to the durability of peace.

Researchers often distinguish between different kinds of power sharing: economic, military, territorial, and political (C. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003; Jarstad and Nilsson 2008; Fortna 2003). Research differs, however, on the implications of the distinction. Some researchers attribute a larger effect to some forms of power-sharing than to others. Fortna (2003), for example, finds that more “costly” forms of power-sharing—such as territorial and military power sharing— represent a significant sacrifice and therefore indicate a larger commitment, which is positively related to the durability of peace (Fortna 2003). Elsewhere, Mattes and Savun (2009) find that only political power sharing is significantly linked to the durability of peace. On the other hand, some researchers weigh all kinds of power sharing equally (Mattes and Savun 2009). For example, Hartzell et al. (2001) create a continuous variable between 0 and 4 that captures a total measure of power sharing. In defending their equal weighting, they argue that the various incarnations of power sharing are mutually reinforcing; therefore, simply creating a single, inclusive measure is appropriate (Hartzell, Hoddie, and Rothchild 2001). They find that the more areas (political, economic, military, and territorial) in which power sharing is instituted, the longer peace can be expected to last. However, other research directly contradicts this finding (Jarstad and Nilsson 2008).

Government Output While the power-sharing literature tends to focus on the contextual factors iterated above, the regime stability and post-conflict development literature highlights the importance of government output on the type of dissolution (i.e., with or without conflict). In particular, this literature finds that a government’s ability to provide public goods—like security, health infrastructure, rule of law—increases the likelihood of a lasting peace in post-conflict societies. Indeed, some literature finds that significant public goods investment can strengthen a regime’s stability by up to 50 percent compared to no investment (Bell 2011).

The category of significant public goods investment offers much more opportunity for policy makers to assert influence. While characteristics like a society’s heterogeneity cannot be altered, a government’s policy can be influenced. Therefore, the literature we review is policy-directed and seeks to determine which government outputs are most associated with a lasting peace.

Economic Development The issues of two-way causality between security and economic growth are problematic for researchers and policy makers. However, the fact that economic growth leads to a reduction in the risk of return to conflict is well established. As Collier et al. (2008) summarize, “growth itself matters”: faster economic growth “directly and significantly reduces” the risk of a return to conflict (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008). However, the first logical connection—that investments in security, institutions, and infrastructure lead to economic development and not vice versa—is difficult to establish. Researchers must keep this two-way causality in mind when investigating possible policy prescriptions. International Involvement Post-conflict states are mostly underdeveloped: Data show that the average post-conflict state ranks 2.41 on the World Bank’s five-point development scale, far below the Bank’s threshold for self-sustaining economic development (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008). Thus, post- conflict states receive huge amounts of aid in the form of development or peacekeepers. In 2006, for example, the United States gave more than $26 billion in global Official Development Assistance to fragile states—states in danger of falling into conflict or were in a post-conflict stage (Kruk et al. 2010). The literature agrees that post-conflict societies can do more with aid than other developing countries; in the parlance of the literature, these societies’ absorptive capacity is “supranormal” (Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Mattes and Savun 2009; Anand 2005). While all aid experts agree that an informed and highly tailored aid package is necessary in all contexts, recent scholarship attempts to create general rules about where aid should be directed (Anand 2005; Kruk et al. 2010).

Peacekeepers are often sent to post-conflict societies when the conflict does not end with a decisive victor (Fortna 2004). In general, across the many dimensions of “peacekeeping”— observers, traditional, multi-dimensional—the literature finds that peacekeeping troops are associated with a reduced risk of a return to conflict (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008; Fortna 2004; Doyle and Sambanis 2006). While studies agree on the general conclusion, many argue that peacekeeping operations could benefit from a “recalibration” to improve methods (Williams 2013).

Researchers also investigate the relationship between third-party enforcers of power-sharing agreements and the length of peace. The bulk of this research finds that a third-party enforcer increases the likelihood the GNU will dissolve without conflict, or rather a free and fair election will occur or a new constitution ratified (C. Hartzell and Hoddie 2003; Mattes and Savun 2009). Some research, however, directly rejects this finding (Mukherjee 2006). Meanwhile, some researchers have found that if a third party plays an important role in conflict termination, it is more likely that one of the parties will believe the subsequent agreement is unfair. Therefore, the agreement is less likely to last (Werner and Yuen 2005). Institutional Strength Institutions are critical in creating the basis for a peaceful society, especially in post-conflict states. Nation building “templates,” however, are often criticized for containing Western normative elements, establishing illegitimate or inappropriate institutions (Philp 2009). Researchers argue that a country’s governance—and thus its formal institutions—must be rooted in its own normative values (Fukuyama 2010).

While endorsements of certain institution-strengthening measures must always be informed and tailored to a specific society, research finds that institutional characteristics and institutional efficacy measures such as political inclusion and representation, government accountability, and rule of law implementation can all increase stability (Eizenstat, Porter, and Weinstein 2010; Le Van 2011; Fukuyama 2010). This support has positive and prescriptive implications: The strength of institutions affects whether a GNU dissolution is peaceful or violent; from a policy perspective, strengthening these institutions is a good investment for stability.

Researchers are also careful to highlight the difference between among (e.g., electoral rules, rule of law) and informal (e.g., tribal patronage) institutions. Although the implications of either are difficult to measure in an advanced economy, both forms can be devastating to peace agreements; indeed, LeVan (2011) describes how this discrepancy contributed to the failure of coalition governments in Burundi and Rwanda (LeVan 2011). Security Unsurprisingly, experts believe increased security helps a country avoid a return to conflict (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008; Bryden 2013). Of course, the term “security” is very broad—definitions can range from holding confidence in the government’s ability to ensure individual property rights to feeling safe when walking to the market. In a post-conflict society, virtually every definition is applicable. Citizens in these situations are insecure by definition, as the peace in post-conflict societies is precarious: previously warring parties, organized crime, and ethnic unrest still pervade, as do the stores of weapons collected throughout hostilities (Bryden 2013; Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008).

Therefore, experts believe that ensuring security in post-conflict societies lies at the “very heart” of peace building (Bryden 2013). The reasoning is simple enough: If citizens do not need to fear simply going to the market and carry out other everyday tasks, they can begin to re-establish their lives and livelihoods. Once livelihoods are re-established, societies can begin a process of economic development, which, experts agree, helps to maintain peace.

The literature does not agree upon a single way to ensure post-conflict security but rather cites its general importance. Security offers “confidence” to an economy and therefore allows it to grow, something which, as expanded on below, is perhaps the most helpful factor in reducing the risk of conflict reversion (Collier, Hoeffler, and Söderbom 2008). Infrastructure There is considerable debate on the most effective allocation of the large amounts of aid flowing into post-conflict societies. Aid projects to create, rebuild, or support infrastructure have received great attention by academics studying post-conflict peace (Anand 2005; Haggard and Tiede 2014; Kruk et al. 2010). However, like “security,” “infrastructure” is an extremely broad term and can mean anything from road mileage per capita to smartphone penetration. Always cognizant of the implications of aid allocation, the literature attempts to identify specific areas of infrastructure that, if improved, can help to reduce the risk of reverting to conflict. In other words, the literature seeks to identify where infrastructure-related aid in post-conflict societies contributes to greater stability.

The first of these areas is healthcare infrastructure, on which, Kruk et al. (2010) note, conflict is especially hard. During conflict, healthcare infrastructure not only undergoes a loss of physical capital via the destruction of hospitals, loss of pharmaceuticals, and so forth, but also a loss of human capital, as many healthcare professionals flee. As a result, at the end of conflict, states often lack the most basic healthcare necessities. International aid has done a good job of addressing such emergencies in the short term, but the rebuilding of a more robust healthcare infrastructure is often lacking. Some experts believe healthcare investments would be “a promising development opportunity” and thus extremely helpful in reducing the risk of a return to conflict (Kruk et al. 2010).

Other experts stress the importance of installing a rule of law infrastructure in post-conflict societies (Fukuyama 2010; Haggard and Tiede 2014). While the logic of this strain of scholarship is sound, establishing a comprehensive set of laws and carrying out consequences for violations is difficult to accomplish in practice. As Fukuyama (2010) notes, establishment of a rule of law infrastructure is extremely costly because, similar to the healthcare industry, it requires human and physical capital. Additionally, rule of law is not something that can be transferred from country to country using a template: as Fukuyama (2010) stresses, it must be thoughtfully implemented, taking into account the post-conflict country’s underlying values. These values can be drastically different from country to country and even between ethnic groups within a country. However, progress on this strain of research is advancing. Binningsbø et al.’s (2012) armed conflict and post-conflict justice dataset affords researchers a meaningful opportunity to analyze these issues.

Still other experts stress the importance of more traditional conceptions of infrastructure like roads and bridges (Anand 2005). This strain of scholarship believes that roads and bridges make governance more efficient, and, in some cases, simply possible. Perhaps more importantly, significant public goods investment also aids a country’s economic development, as it drastically reduces transportation costs.

Survival Model and Methods

GNU Selection and Dating

We used a strict protocol to identify the start and end dates for each GNU. To determine the start date, we used negotiated settlement databases to locate the signing of an official agreement. If we could not find an agreement, we looked for a date when the GNU was internationally recognized. Failing data availability, we simply used the end of the conflict that preceded GNU formation. We used archival data to ascertain the date of GNU dissolution, which occurred with an election, ratification of a new constitution, return to large-scale conflict, or a secondary settlement setting up further transitional processes. We categorized four outcomes: dissolution without conflict, dissolution with conflict, transitional agreement for governance, or right censored (still in existence at the end of 2012).1

We included in our analysis GNUs present from 1975 through 2012 because this period has the most complete data. Our period of observation also allows us to control for the structure of the international system that has remained relatively constant since World War II. For many GNUs, exact dates were difficult to locate and contested, but years were widely agreed upon. Most variables of theoretical interest are only measured annually. Other studies on peace and stability in post-conflict countries employ year estimates. This fact supported our decision to use years as our interval unit. A complete list of GNUs included in this analysis can be found in Appendix A. Governments of National Unity 1975-2012.

We analyze our GNU dataset to analyze the amount of time between GNU emergence and dissolution, as well as whether dissolution occurs with or without conflict. Additionally, survival analysis allows us to identify which factors significantly contribute to dissolution with conflict or dissolution without conflict.

Data Description Ninety GNUs existed from 1975 through 2012, representing 311 yearly observations. Summary statistics for GNUs in our dataset are included in Table 1. We code success as GNUs that dissolved without conflict (further discussed below) and failure as GNUs that dissolved with conflict. In our data, 33 GNUs are coded as failures, meaning they dissolved into conflict and were not replaced immediately by elections and a formal central government or by another transitional governance agreement.

1 Some GNU observations did not neatly fit these outcomes. Some GNUs were established, dissolved into conflict, and then were re-established. In these instances, when the conflict lasted less than a year and the GNU agreement

Table 1. Data Description Category Total Number of GNUs Observed 90 Years of GNU Existence 311 Median Length of GNUs (Years) 2

Dependent Variable: Dissolution The dependent or outcome variable in this analysis is GNU “dissolution.” We are interested in two types of dissolution: dissolution with conflict (failure) and dissolution without conflict (success). A success outcome includes transition without conflict to a more permanent form of government, and is observed through peaceful elections, ratification of a new constitution, and the absence of conflict. We define success this way because focusing on this outcome distinction—rather than GNU lifespan—allows us to assess which GNUs failed, when they failed, and why they failed. This method permits a more compelling analysis and lends itself more to robust policy recommendations.

Additionally, we observed two other outcomes: transition agreements and right censored (or ongoing as of 2012). These outcomes highlight important considerations about the interpretation of time in existence of GNUs. Given the transitional or temporary nature of GNUs, longer GNUs are not necessarily better GNUs, nor do longer GNUs ensure successful transition (i.e., transition without conflict).

We did not assume that the longer a GNU exists the better it is performing. GNUs are temporary or transitional by design; therefore a longer-lasting a GNU could indicate an inability to establish more permanent forms of governance. Therefore, we sought to identify an inflection point in GNU years in existence after which a GNU becomes more likely to dissolve peacefully. Additionally, we tested which attributes of the GNU or contextual characteristics make dissolution with peace more likely.

We observed 90 GNUs for a total of 311 years in existence (known in survival analysis as time at risk). Figure 1 shows the subjects (countries) and time at risk for each outcome.

Figure 1. Dissolution Outcomes Notes: Subjects are instances of GNUs (one country may have multiple instances of GNUs within the observation time period). Time at risk is measured in years.

Dissolution

Outcome 1: With Conflict Outcome 2: Without Conflict Subjects = 30 Subjects = 34 Time at Risk = 105 Time at Risk = 140

Outcome 3: Transition Agreement Outcome 4: Right-Censored Subjects = 17 Subjects = 10 Time at Risk = 47 Time at Risk = 69

Independent Variables When choosing variables to include in our quantitative analysis, we relied on the information gleaned from our literature review. As such, our independent variables fall into two categories: contextual characteristics (which include agreement characteristics) and government output. Table 2 lists the variables, measures, and hypothesized relationship.2 Table 2. Predicted Relationship between Covariates and the Hazard Rate of Failure Expected Effect Expected Effect Variable Measure on Success on Failure Heterogeneity & Population Characteristics Fractionalization Score (percentage) - +

Intensity (Score 1 to 4 – 4 being most intense) - +

Duration (in years) - + Preceding Conflict Characteristics Type (political or ideological) - a +

Ending (stalemate or decisive victory) - b +

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate + - Economic Development GDP per Capita ( in 2014 US Dollars) + -

Agreement Characteristics Number of Power-Sharing Provisions + -

Presence of Peacekeepers, Aid, and Third-Party Involvement Development, or Third-Party Facilitation or + - Signer of Negotiated Settlement Institutional Strength Rule of Law Strength + - Notes: Ideological conflict is expected to have a negative effect, political conflict is expected to have a less negative or no effect; stalemate is expected to have a negative effect, decisive victory is expected to have no effect or a positive effect.

2 Sources for the dataset are available in the report’s companion dataset and codebook.

Limitations Data availability was a severe challenge for our analysis, and three occurrences of this limitation were particularly noteworthy. First, our literature review indicated a significant—if complicated—relationship between the level of corruption and government stability within a country, but we had no reliable measures to analyze that effect. Therefore, we did not include it in our model. Second, we could not find reliable covariate data for GNUs in Rhodesia, Palestine, Serbia, Zanzibar, and Northern Ireland; consequently, we dropped these observations from our dataset. Finally, the measurement frequency of our variables of theoretical interest required that we measure the start and end dates of GNUs by year, not by exact dates. We thus potentially introduce bias to the estimated survival time of each GNU.

Statistical Model Survival analysis examines the time to dissolution for GNUs included in our study. Survival analysis predicts, at varying time points, the likelihood of dissolution of a GNU. Additionally, survival analysis predicts the size of effect and tests the statistical significance of the effect of each individual covariate on the rate of dissolution. We stratify these results to predict the effect each covariate has on dissolution without conflict and then dissolution with conflict. Sometimes our observations shared identical values for a variable. We used stratification in our model to compensate for repeated values, marking observations with the same values to be included in the same stratum. This method enables us to develop hazard estimates for each grouping, as opposed to counting each converging value as a different associative effect with each observation. In other words, survival analysis tells us which independent variables (e.g., institutional strength, international involvement, heterogeneity) have the largest impact on dissolution type and how the likelihood of failure for GNUs changes over time. Survival Analysis: Cox Proportional Hazards Model Our basic model predicts when a failure outcome (i.e., dissolution with conflict) will occur and what factors contribute to failure. Our second model (discussed below) analyzes the likelihood we observe dissolution without conflict, or success. To determine the failure rate for GNUs, we construct a survivor function that displays the length of time a GNU lasts before a failure event. We then provide a framework to predict the likelihood of failure at a given time point for GNUs. Appendix B. Technical Explanations provides more information on Cox Proportional Hazard Models.

We use a semi-parametric Cox model to formulate our survival function. Survival analysis researchers use the Cox model because of its flexibility: unlike other methods of survival analysis, the Cox model requires less strict assumptions about the shape of the hazard function and instead allows the data to determine the shape. Survival Analysis: Kaplan-Meier Estimator We use Kaplan-Meier estimators to estimate the survival function for GNUs. Kaplan-Meier estimators measure the probability that a GNU fails after a number of years and the probability of failing after a particular point in time. The downward sloping, step share of the Kaplan-Meier estimator represents GNUs failing over time, and the probability of failure for all GNUs still in existence at each point of time observed. These graphs consider a failure event to be dissolution with conflict in Model 1, and dissolution with peace in Model 2.

Survival Model Results

Model 1: Dissolution with Conflict The outcome of interest in our first model was dissolution with conflict, which we defined as failure. Survival analysis first matches GNUs that have the data for our measures of interest to estimate the shape of the survival function for GNUs that dissolve into conflict. Forty-four GNUs had sufficient data to create the shape of the hazard function over time and estimate the effect of the measures on the risk of failure. Of those 44 GNUs, 14 substantiate failures, meaning they dissolved into conflict. The 44 GNUs lasted a cumulative 137 years from 1975 through 2012. This process provided our estimate of the hazard ratio, which represented the estimated risk of a failure event for a single GNU at a given time, relative to the rest of the sample, given that all other measures in the model were held constant. While other methods of reporting are possible in survival analysis, we chose to report hazard ratios because their values had a substantial, yet easy-to-understand interpretation: The hazard ratio’s effect on the probability that a GNU will experience a failure event at a given point in time is 100(Hazard Rate – 1), holding all else constant. Therefore, positive coefficients indicate an increase in the probability of a failure event, while negative coefficients indicate a decrease in the probability of a failure event at a given point in time. Our null hypothesis held that our covariates had no effect on the survival of GNUs; our alternative hypothesis was a measurable effect. Table 3 displays the estimated hazard ratios, standard errors, and p-values for the measures in our survival analysis. Table 3. Model 1 Dissolution with Conflict Results Variables Measures Hazard Ratio P-Value Population 1.84 Fractionalization 0.31 Heterogeneity (1.13) 1.25 Number of Power-Sharing Types 0.65 (0.62) GNU Agreement 0.89 Presence of Third-Party Enforcer 0.89 (0.68) 0.95 Duration 0.53 (0.07) 0.96 Preceding Conflict Outcome: Decisive Victory 0.96 (.71) 0.22 Type: Ideological 0.10 (0.18) 0.99 GDP per Capita 0.17 Economic (9.6 x 10-5) Development 1.01 GDP Growth 0.90 (0.08) 12.68 Institutions Rule of Law 0.004 (11.23) 1.62 Control Conflict 0.66 (1.65) Notes: Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses under the hazard ratio. Log pseudo-likelihood is -23, and the probability we observe values greater than chi-squared is 0.03.

We chose to evaluate statistical significance at the 0.05 and 0.1 level. We are less confident in the nature of the relationship between the covariates in our model and the failure event at the 0.1 level, given the limitations in our sample size and available measures. Results that are significant

at the 0.05 level or lower are more likely to indicate a relationship between the covariates and the failure event.

Hazard ratios are reported in the table above, as they have a more substantive interpretation. Coefficients for the model report the direction of the relationship between our independent variables of interest and our dependent variable. However, coefficients do not have a literal interpretation. This finding was evident especially for our rule of law variable, which itself is an index that attempts to quantify an already latent measure. We therefore felt hazard ratios better reflected increases in hazard, as well as indicated the direction of the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Finally, the variables in our model were also sufficient to provide control measures that were specified in the literature. See Appendix C. Model Specifications and Results for a table containing coefficients for each of the models presented in this paper.

Using the characterization outlined in our literature review, we divided covariates into contextual characteristics and government output. Only one of the contextual characteristics was significant in this model at the 0.1 significance level. The risk that a GNU dissolves into conflict when there is ideological conflict immediately preceding the formation of the government, is 0.22 times lower than when GNUs are formed following a non-ideological conflict such as political, economic, or territorial conflicts, holding all else constant.

One “government output” variable was statistically significant. Because the ratio for rule of law is greater than 1, it indicates that rule of law contributes positively to the rate of failure of GNUs, an unexpected result. However, when contextualized, this finding was not puzzling. To measure rule of law we used an index ranging from -2.5 to 2.5. The range represented in our sample, is from -2.22 to 0.16, with a mean value of -1.08.3 Therefore, in this analysis, an increase in rule of law’s coefficient actually reflected a decrease in the rule of law score. Given this appropriately contextualized understanding, we found that, holding all else constant, for every additional point decrease in the strength of rule of law index, GNUs were about 12.68 times more likely to dissolve into conflict.

Below we included two figures to aid in understanding the relationship between time and GNU dissolution with conflict. As is standard in survival analysis, we used the Kaplan-Meier Cumulative Hazard Estimator to display this relationship. Figure 2 shows the Kaplan-Meier estimator for all GNUs in this model. The proportional hazard for surviving remained uniform between events in the estimator, and the curve estimated the survival over time for GNUs before dissolution. In other words, this graph shows the amount of time that a GNU survived, and, in each year, the proportion of those GNUs that we expected to dissolve with conflict. Figure 3 elucidates the importance of rule of law; this Kaplan-Meier estimator was broken out to display the difference in proportional hazard between a median rule of law level and a zero rule of law level, holding other measures in the model constant.

3 We expected a negative mean value for the rule of law scores represented in our sample. Most GNUs are established after or during conflict, which affects the capacity and effectiveness of legal institutions. Furthermore, several GNUs were in developing or least-developed countries, which are generally characterized by weak institutions and poor rule of law.

Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier Survival Distribution Function: Dissolution with Conflict Model

Figure 3. Smoothed Hazard Function, by Median Rule of Law

As shown in Figure 2, the cumulative probability that a GNU will dissolve into conflict increased each year. Here the vertical axis represents the proportion of GNUs in the sample: as time goes on (and we move right along the horizontal axis), we witnessed more GNU failures. If every GNU in this analysis ended during or before 2012, the curve would intersect the horizontal axis at 18 years (the duration of our longest GNU, Bosnia). However, intersection at the horizontal axis does not occur because GNUs that were continued past 2012 (i.e., right censored). Figure 3 illustrates the effect of rule of law on the failure of GNUs. As evidenced by the graph’s limited horizontal breadth, GNUs evaluated based on rule of law data were not likely to survive past five years. Additionally, the distance between those GNUs with the lowest rule of law levels (the upper line) and those with a median score (the lower line) showed that a difference in rule of law level meant rule of law had a significant effect on the hazard rate experienced by GNUs. While the distance between the lines indicated a difference in the relative risk of failure of a GNU during each year it exists, the measured distance between GNUs that have a median rule of law

and those with the lowest rule of law scores was not a statistically valid measure of the difference in failure rates.

Model 2: Dissolution without Conflict Our outcome of interest in Model 2 was dissolution without conflict, that is, a peaceful transition from the GNU into elections or some formal, permanent central government. Because we used the same measures in this model as in Model 1, survival analysis performed a “pairing” process that produced a sample size of 44 GNUs. Fourteen GNUs result in our outcome of interest.4 Our null hypothesis was that our variables had no effect on peaceful dissolution of a GNU. We used the same variables in this model as in Model 1 to estimate effects on dissolution without conflict. Table 4 shows the estimated hazard ratio for each of our measures on GNU success. Table 4. Model 2 Dissolution with Peace Results Variables Measures Hazard Ratio P-Value 0.27 Population Heterogeneity Fractionalization 0.001 (0.11) 0.93 GNU Agreement Number of Power-Sharing Types in Agreement 0.89 (0.45) 1.28 Presence of Third-Party Enforcer 0.71 (0.86) 1.09 Preceding Conflict Duration 0.21 (0.07) 1.47 Outcome: Decisive Victory 0.57 (1.02) 4.05 Type: Ideological 0.02 (2.43) 0.99 Economic Development GDP per Capita 0.16 (4.7 x 10-5) 1.03 GDP Growth 0.01 (0.01) 0.79 Institutions Rule of Law 0.74 (0.57) 0.65 Control Conflict 0.44 (0.36) Notes: Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses under the hazard ratio. The log pseudo-likelihood is -21.07, and the probability that we observe values greater than chi-squared is 0.02.

Our results indicate that fractionalization, ideological conflict, and GDP growth are statistically significant at the 0.05 level.5 Within this model, the contextual characteristics of fractionalization and ideological conflict were statistically significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively. Our government output measure of GDP growth was also statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

4 With more complete data, the sample of GNUs used to estimate the baseline hazard rate in each model likely would increase. Better data would improve the specificity of our analysis, as well as expand the time period that could be analyzed, improving the capacity to project expected results and develop future models to predict the behavior of GNUs before they have been established. 5 The proportionality test analyzing the explanatory power of the measures included in both Model 1 and Model 2 can be found in Appendix C.

Holding all else constant, each additional increase in the level of ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization within a GNU decreased the likelihood that it dissolved peacefully and transitioned to a permanent central government. For each additional increase in the level of fractionalization, a GNU was 0.27 times less likely to dissolve peacefully. This result meant that GNUs whose populations had extreme levels of heterogeneity were less likely to succeed.

Further results indicate that if the conflict preceding GNU formation was ideological in nature, the GNU was 4.05 times more likely to dissolve peacefully, holding all else constant. This supports the results found in Model 1, that ideological conflict decreases the risk that a GNU will dissolve into conflict if formed following ideological conflict.

Our final significant variable was GDP growth, a measure of government output. The third variable that is statistically significant is GDP growth. For each additional percentage point of yearly GDP growth, a GNU was 1.03 times more likely to dissolve peacefully.

Figure 4 is the Kaplan-Meier estimator for Model 2. The estimated line in Figure 4 climbs at a slower rate than that in Figure 2. This finding indicates that there is less of a change in the risk of dissolution with peace across time than there is in the risk of dissolution with conflict across time. That is, the longer a GNU lasts, its risk of dissolution with conflict increases more than its risk of peaceful dissolution. The curve represents the relative risk of a GNU dissolving into peace at a given year during its existence.

Figure 4. Kaplan-Meier Survival Distribution Function: Dissolution without Conflict Model

Figure 5 is the Kaplan-Meier estimator for GNUs analyzed in the success model, stratified by whether the GNU experienced ideological conflict before it was established. Figure 5 shows when a GNU experienced a preceding conflict that was ideologically driven, it was more likely to dissolve peacefully than when the preceding conflict was not ideologically driven, (i.e., the conflict was economically motivated).

Figure 5. Smoothed Hazard Function, by Ideological Conflict

Discussion of Survival Analysis Results

Our models provided new and substantive evidence to the nascent body of literature on GNUs. This evidence helped explain variation in GNU dissolution during the 1975-2012 period, and can hold possible explanatory power for analyzing future GNUs.

As outlined in our literature review, we were interested in two families of variables of explanation: contextual factors—those that inform the establishment of a GNU—and government output factors—those that can affect a GNU after it has been established. Our quantitative analysis found that two contextual factors and two government output factors significantly impacted GNU dissolution.

Contextual Factors Our results indicate that a GNU’s likelihood of peaceful dissolution increased when an ideological conflict—rather than another sort of conflict—preceded the establishment of a GNU. This finding surprised us. As cited in our literature review, experts believe that identity and ideological conflicts are particularly intractable, and therefore will likely lead to renewed conflict if a GNU or other power-sharing agreement is signed.

Additionally, although ideological conflict was not significant in the first model at the .05 threshold, it is approaching significance at the .01 level. Thus, it is possible that further research and modeling with more nuanced survival analysis model would improve the estimates of the relationship between ideological conflict and GNU dissolution. While this result is not definitive, it does indicate that ideological conflict preceding the establishment of a GNU decreases the risk that a GNU will fail.

Our quantitative finding that ideological conflict contributed to dissolution without conflict is likely due to ideological conflicts being over-represented in our sample. Additionally, ideological conflict measured the presence of ideological, identity, or socio-cultural conflict. It is reasonable to assume that future analysis would be able to assess more accurately the effect of each of these different types of conflict on the success or failure of GNUs.

Our final statistically significant result in the contextual factors category indicated that higher levels of fractionalization within a population decreased the chance that a GNU succeeded. Again, this finding was somewhat at odds with our literature review. Experts believe that low and high levels of heterogeneity encourage more peaceful and stable governance, while middling levels lead to more instability and conflict. So, while the finding we identified is consistent with some prior research conclusions, it contradicted others.

Government Output Factors The probability a GNU dissolves peacefully may have increased with greater institutional strength. We used a measure of rule of law to represent the variable of institutional strength. The rule of law is an index, which makes it impossible to determine the specific level of improvement needed in various legal institutions to decrease the risk of failure. Therefore, we cannot distinguish general, individual policies and changes that would increase GNUs ability to

enforce rule of law. Our results indicated, however, that rule of law was a significant contributor to hazard rates experienced by GNUs, indicating the importance of institutional strength to peaceful dissolution and providing a logical path to possible policy options. This analysis bolstered previous scholarship in positing a positive association between improvements in institutional strength and performance and ultimate success of a GNU.

Finally, our analysis indicated that improvements in GDP growth yielded a positive effect on the expected success of a GNU. This finding was consistent with literature that supports economic development and its positive effects on a country’s strength, its capacity for institution building, and other areas. However, as described in the literature review, making causal inferences from this relationship is difficult. Thus, this finding, above all others, must be considered skeptically.

Case Studies: Variations in Power-Sharing

One of the central features of a GNU is the agreement behind its formation. These agreements institute a framework for the division of power and frequently include political power-sharing, territorial power-sharing, economic power-sharing, military power-sharing, or a combination of two or more of these dimensions. To further understand the underlying conditions of successful GNUs, we explored three case studies to clarify the mechanisms linking peaceful GNU dissolution and power-sharing arrangements. Number and type of power-sharing dimensions were chosen as the distinguishing variable because they are not directly tied to the pre-existing conditions of a state, and it is the variable with the most direct policy implications.

Given the importance of Afghanistan’s current unity government in the policy debate, we used this agreement as a reference for selecting our three case studies. Afghanistan’s agreement appeared to only include one dimension of power sharing: political power sharing. The agreement included the runner-up to the election, the leader of the opposition, and deputies appointed by the runner-up. They were all involved in the government and the decision-making process. This inclusion gave these voices more authority than they would otherwise have had, but failed to include any elements of territorial power sharing, military power sharing, or economic power sharing. In these other spheres of power, the president retained sole authority over all matters of importance.

We have selected three cases that are similar to Afghanistan with regard to population heterogeneity, conflict characterizations, economic development, international involvement, and institutional strength. The one distinguishing variable was that all three are based on an agreement along varying dimensions of power sharing. The three cases we selected to analyze in this report were Tajikistan, Yemen, and Sudan. All of these countries experience low human development, high levels of corruption, destabilizing rebel groups, and weak institutions. Tajikistan shares similar population statistics, regional influences, and historical legacies as Afghanistan. Yemen’s unity government, formed in 2011, only shortly preceded the formation of Afghanistan’s unity government. Sudan has experienced prolonged conflict, leaving a large death toll and displacing even more people.

Tajikistan: 1997 General Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord Agreement Analysis A newly independent country following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan has undergone significant political and economic changes in its path to peace. The weakening Soviet locus of power and institutions gave rise to escalating patterns of political competition in the wake of the perestroika period. Tajikistan’s civil war encompassed conflict involving Islamic fundamentalism, ethnicity, and national identity, but was primarily defined by regional affiliation. The two main antagonists of the conflict were the Rakhmonov regime, representing Kulyab Province and the traditional Communist Party Nomenklatura, and the United Tajik Opposition, which was dominated by the Islamic Rebirth Party whose officials were almost all from the Garm Valley region (Djalili, Grare, and Akiner 1997). Negotiations between these two

parties began in 1993 and occurred in three phases. The two noteworthy outcomes of the first stage, which lasted about two years, were a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement. The second stage lasted about half a year and ended with no positive outcomes. The third stage was swift and ended with a resolution of all outstanding issues.

A combination of internal and the external factors accounted for the dramatic shift from deadlock in negotiations to a series of agreements. The crucial external factors were the role of other countries in the region. Russia and Iran in particular were major powers influencing Tajikistan (Nourzhanov and Bleuer 2013). The alignment of interests in having a stable Tajikistan and avoiding Western involvement helped shift momentum toward a peaceful solution. The territorial gains of the Taliban in Afghanistan in particular had significant repercussions for Tajikistan. Afghan refugees exasperated scarce resources, while Tajikistanis and neighboring countries feared Afghanistan’s conflict would cross the border. Regarding internal factors, before 1996, leaders of both factions relied heavily on their military commanders and needed to consider the interests and ideologies of their network of supporters when making decisions. 1996 saw a worsening economic crisis that created popular unrest (McAuliffe 2006). At the same time, militants experienced growing war-weariness from years of fighting and an absence of decisive victories.

The 1997 peace agreement had two main protocols: a one on military issues, the other on political issues (Abdullaev and Barnes 2001). The military provision provided for the reintegration, disarmament, and disbandment of armed units of the United Tajik Opposition. It also called for the reform of government power structures and commissions a Joint Central Review Board to evaluate and make recommendations with regard to these reforms. The focus, however, remained on the steps involving the armed opposition forces. This included the involvement of peacekeeping forces from the Commonwealth of Independent States and the United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan. These international actors were included to supervise the registration and storage of weapons and ammunition.

The political protocol adopted the Statute on the Commission on National Reconciliation and addressed the political issues of import. The first was amnesty; the protocol references a reciprocal-pardon act as the first political decision that should be made by the commission. Also called for by the protocol was a new professional Parliament and Central Electoral Commission. A third provision central to the agreement was the introduction of a quota to provide for a minimum amount of representation by the United Tajik Opposition into the various structures of government, including ministries, local government bodies, and judicial and law-enforcement bodies. The last main aspect was the lifting of all bans and restrictions on activities by political parties and movements, as well as the mass media. Comparing these two protocols, the military protocol was the longer and more detailed of the two. However, the political protocol covers many more issues and was the focal point of the peace process. Implications Since the signing of the 1997 agreement, Tajikistan has avoided a return to the devastating conflict that gripped the country since 1992. Occasional skirmishes with opposition forces that did not accept the peace agreement have followed it, but meanwhile the government has continued to extend its authority (International Crisis Group 2001).

Regarding military issues, the agreement sought to create a unified national army that incorporated all of the armed groups that formed during the civil war. Thousands of former United Tajik Opposition forces were integrated into the new military structures outlined in the protocols, yet many military commanders have remained independent. Regarding political issues, the negotiations between the two parties stipulated that 30 percent of posts at all levels of the government were reserved for former United Tajik Opposition members, yet this deal had not always been honored, especially at the lower levels (International Crisis Group 2001).

The hoped for turning point stemming from the peace process were elections. In 1999 presidential and parliamentary elections were held, but failed expectations. International observers widely called the election fraudulent, with opposition candidates initially threatening to boycott the elections. Ultimately, Rakhmonov was re-elected with Tajikistan largely retaining the stability secured during the peace negotiations. For the purposes of this analysis, we categorized Tajikistan’s GNU dissolution as successful, or dissolution without conflict as it did not devolve into widespread violence. However, the current state of relations between the two parties can be characterized by high levels of mistrust and controversy over the implementation of the 1997 agreement and its related protocols (International Crisis Group 2001). Tajikistan’s dissolution was characterized in our analysis as dissolution without conflict.

Tajikistan’s experience demonstrated the necessity of having an agreement built on military and political dimensions. Without the disarmament of opposition forces, integration into new military structures, and general amnesty, the conflict very easily could have returned. Following the agreement many controversies have arisen, including disputed elections and accusations of the government’s failure to fully implement its provisions. If more of the opposition groups had not become part of the government's forces or had retained weapons and ammunition, these controversies could have erupted into conflict. Even if conflict did not result, conflict would have been a constant threat, which would have inhibited the stability and development of the country. The political dimension was equally needed as the primer of negotiations. For Tajikistan, the most critical part of the negotiations was the political issues; once these issues were resolved, the military negotiations were easily settled. Without bringing opposition members into the government and reopening the country to political parties, there would have been no incentive for the opposition to disarm and disband. Thus, this case study points to the necessity of political power sharing for an agreement to occur and the necessity of military power sharing for conflict to be avoided.

Yemen: The 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement The 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement was signed by Yemen’s National Coalition and the National Council to end hostilities. A stagnant economy, political exclusion, and an armed insurgency remained after the signing of the agreement. This case study details the agreement itself, the context of its signing, and the results and implications for theories regarding the durability of GNUs.

Agreement Analysis The United States’ war on terror, Saudi Arabia’s fear of instability, and increasing social unrest within Yemen were three interrelated and crucial factors responsible for Yemen’s recent political

history. As a result of the events on September 11, 2001, the Middle East garnered even greater international attention and concern. In the West, Yemen was viewed as an unstable, corrupt, and illegitimate nation run by warring tribes (Bonnefoy 2011). The Yemeni government, however, took significant steps to cooperate with the United States and its allies, changing its policies and political allegiances, allowing for military bases and administrative offices to be built within its borders, and President Ali ’Abd Allah Saleh attended the 2004 G8 summit (Bonnefoy 2011). This shift in policy was followed by significant domestic unrest and terrorist attacks that caused more casualties in 2010 than in the entire previous decade (Bonnefoy 2011). During this time the “Believing Youth,” led by the Houthi family—a Muslim armed insurgency known as the Houthi rebels—had been participating in anti-government demonstrations in Yemen and elsewhere, clashing with police, and accusing the Saleh administration of violent discrimination (Freeman 2009). The rebels, who have since played a lead role in the events following the 2011 transition agreement, are a Zaidi Shia insurgent group that have existed in Yemen since 2004, and have called for the Yemeni government to end its support of the U.S. war on terror.

In November 2011, after months of violent unrest and the stalling of transition talks in Yemen, President Saleh ended his 33-year reign by transferring power to his deputy, Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, through a transition agreement (Rashad 2011). Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council helped facilitate the process of establishing transitional authority. Yet Saudi Arabia’s role has not been without criticism. Saudi Arabia has aided the Yemeni government in fighting the Houthi Rebels, helping keep the patronage networks of the Yemeni government functioning and supportive of Saleh’s rule. When discontent and criticism against Saleh severely weakened the legitimacy of the regime, Saudi Arabia called for a transitional government (Durac 2012; Haykel 2011; Hill 2011).

The Gulf Cooperation Council agreement was designed to create a GNU in which political, economic, and military power were shared between Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress (GPC) and its opposition, the Joint Meeting Parties. Six Yemeni parties, including the Islamist Islah Party and the Yemeni Socialist party composed the Joint Meeting Parties. The Gulf Cooperation Council brokered the agreement with help from Britain and the United States, and it was signed in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh (Durac 2012). The first stage was to take place over the course of 90 days, and the second over the course of two years.

The first stage was the most significant in that it contained the majority of protocols that the Yemen unity government had to enact. The Gulf Cooperation Council agreement called specifically for the early election of then-deputy Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to the office of president. It also established the Committee on Military Affairs to be responsible for the immediate end to all armed conflicts, the removal of all militias from the capital and other cities, and the reduction of risk of armed conflict in Yemen. Stage one of the agreement also called for the creation of a Conference of National Dialogue that would engage youth movements in Yemen, in order to disseminate and explain the agreement, create conversations about the future of Yemen, and involve youth in Yemen’s political future (“Yemen Transition Agreement, 2012” 2011).

Stage two of the Gulf Cooperation Council agreement called for constitutional reform that, while ambiguously designed, would address the structure of Yemen’s political system, reform the electoral process, and implement any constitutional amendments necessary. Last, protocols

regarding the further development of a national conversation about violence in South Yemen, the inclusion of women in politics, human rights, and local government were briefly mentioned (“Yemen Transition Agreement, 2012” 2011).

Implications The dissolution of Yemen’s GNU in this analysis was categorized as a failure, or dissolution with conflict. The GNU failed in Yemen, in part because it failed to address the underlying factors warranting its creation in 2011: poor agreement implementation and economic development, insecurity, and exclusion. Two years into the reign of the new GNU, violence persisted and the economy remained unchanged (Al-Monitor 2013). The insurgency, taking advantage of public anger toward the government, staged mass protests. These events led to the march on Sana’a, resulting in the takeover of capital government buildings and forcing the resignation of Prime Minister Mohammed Basidawa on September 21, 2014. By February 2015 the Houthis had dissolved the government and solidified the collapse of the state (Gasim 2015). Presently, warring tribes and militias, including Al Qaeda, are active in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, with logistical support from the United States, has launched an aggressive bombing campaign on what they assert is a hostile Iranian takeover (Kirkpatrick and Fahim 2015). At the time of the publication of this report, nothing remains of the 2011 GNU and the conflict shows no sign of swift cessation.

The transitional government created by the Gulf Cooperation Council agreement failed not only because it faced a well-organized insurgency, but also because it failed to address the underlying insufficiency of the governing structures, including the corruption and centralization of Yemen’s political power, as well as the exclusion of major political actors from the negotiation table. Neither the Houthi rebels nor Yemen’s youth were included in the agreement process or in the formation of the transitional plan (Durac 2012). Many say the agreement was a mere continuation of the old elite-dominated system, and that the old parties had co-opted the protest movement for their own political gain (Nevens 2011).

The lack of clarity in logistical design and implementation of protocols in the transitional agreement itself is evidenced by not only its meager length, but also the ability of the formerly powerful players to negotiate that ambiguity to their advantage. Power-sharing structures were not altered, and the elite networks that angered many were kept in place. Additionally, while the agreement did touch on political, economic, and military power sharing, it did so fleetingly, leaving it to the next administration to interpret the agreement’s protocols and implement them as it saw fit.

The Yemen case highlights the need for governments to focus on pre-existing components of political and economic power sharing when forming transitional agreements. Political settlements like the Gulf Cooperation Council agreement that failed to enact observable changes both regarding power sharing and government output may function to further exacerbate societal unrest. In Yemen, real and transformative political change was not achieved, and the basic demands of the populace were not met. This, in combination with the failure to either include or eradicate its insurgency, left the 2011 GNU to dissolve into debilitating conflict.

Sudan: 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement Agreement Analysis Following British rule, Sudan fell into a cycle of civil unrest and instability that continues today. Two civil wars between 1955 and 2005 resulted in millions of civilian casualties, displaced people, refugees, and significant international intervention. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement was a bilateral effort by war-weary parties to end to the conflict. The agreement was signed by Sudan’s National Congress Party , the Government of Sudan, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement, southern Sudan’s leading military and political organization. This case study discusses the shortcomings of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and implications for GNU successful transition to more permanent governance.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement comprised six agreements signed between 2002 and 2004: the Protocol of Machakos; the Protocol on Security Arrangements; the Protocol on Wealth- sharing; the Protocol on Power sharing; the Protocol on the Resolution of Conflict in Southern Kordofan/Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile States; and the Protocol on the Resolution of Conflict in Abyei. This extensive agreement of more than 200 pages consisted of political, territory, military, and economic power-sharing arrangements. The goal of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was to end conflict and start democratization for a united Sudan (Aalen 2013). However, many of the provisions of the agreement were never fully implemented (Simmons and Dixon 2006).

The Protocol of Machakos called for a six-year period during which south Sudan would have power to govern affairs in its region and participate in the national government, as well as vote in a referendum to decide Sudan’s unity or South Sudan’s secession in 2011. It made Islamic law applicable in the north, but not applicable to non-Muslims in the rest of the country. In the Protocol on Security Arrangements, the Sudan Armed Forces, under the National Congress Party, and the SPLA agreed to a demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration program as well as combining soldiers from each to form Joint Integrated Units to be stationed in high-priority, disputed areas. The wealth-sharing agreement gave responsibility to the national and south governments for collecting revenue, recognized a dual banking system and separate currencies until the Central Bank designated a single currency reflecting unity, and allocated 2 percent of oil revenue to oil-producing states in southern Sudan. The power-sharing agreement included arrangements such as a 70:30 power split in favor of the National Congress Party in the north and 70:30 split in favor of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement in the south; a bicameral national legislature; and two vice presidents, the first of whom is the chair of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (Simmons and Dixon 2006).

The remaining protocols focused on governance of three critical areas: Abyei, Nuba Mountains (in the state of Southern Kordofan), and Southern Blue Nile (in the state of Blue Nile). Due to internal and international pressure, Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement representatives in the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile gave up many demands. The National Congress Party and Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement were supposed to rotate authority over Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, but the party maintained control through the central government (Simmons and Dixon 2006). Involved parties failed to address certain controversies, such as disputes over land and natural resources, in the agreement leaving these to be addressed

later (Brosché 2009). Furthermore, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement did not address implementation of the provisions, which was a major failure. Implications The Comprehensive Peace Agreement failed to reach the stated goals of ending hostilities and starting democratization as evidenced by instability (Aalen 2013). This case was categorized in our analysis as a failure, or dissolution with conflict. Broadly, the agreement process focused too much on the agreement itself and not enough on implementation. The agreement failed to incentivize implementation and national unity. One of the major components of the agreement was the referendum giving the south an exit option (Brosché 2009). The referendum took place in 2011, and southern Sudanese were overwhelmingly in favor of secession. South Sudan gained its independence in July 2011 and signed agreements with Sudan in 2012 to establish a positive framework for relations between the two governments. Like the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the 2012 agreement provisions have not yet been fully implemented. The referendum made disunity a possibility and did not reinforce implementation of the agreement provisions. There is no incentive to invest in implementation if a party will likely be leaving the agreement in a few years. If there is an option for a party to exit an agreement, then there can be no shared vision.

Another example of the agreement’s shortcomings in incentivizing implementation and national unity is that the agreement only addressed north-south conflict. Due to the fact that only armed groups were given a voice in the negotiation, the agreement encouraged more violence by pushing rebel groups to compete for power through military action (Brosché 2009). Remnants of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement in the north, as well as other rebel groups, continued to engage in violent conflict with the Sudanese government, demonstrating the need to address the relationship between the country center and periphery. Although the agreement did include some decentralization, because provisions were never fully implemented and there was little commitment to a shared vision, the agreement was never seen as legitimate and never given the chance to truly address the relationship between the center and periphery.

Land played an important role in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The center-periphery conflict was not just political, but territorial. Sudan has a long history of economic exploitation of the periphery by the central government. Much of the disputed land addressed in the agreement is rich in natural resources. In 2009, 97 percent of South Sudan’s budget came from oil revenues (Brosché 2009). While the north and south have oil, most of the oil-producing capacity is in the south. Due to limited infrastructure, the south must rely on the north to ship this oil for revenue, which enables the north to continue exploiting natural resource wealth. To sustain the south’s dependency, the north has less incentive to invest in infrastructure in the south as was part of the agreement. In the literature on power sharing, more power-sharing provisions (i.e., economic, military, territorial) are proven to strengthen the durability of agreements. However, this case study points to the necessity of resolving underlying imbalanced power distribution and using such considerations to inform negotiations.

Without the Comprehensive Peace Agreement the country would likely still be facing a brutal north-south war, and therefore despite the ongoing instability important lessons can be learned from Sudan. Exit options discourage implementation of provisions and prevent a shared vision. Exclusion of key stakeholders and unresolved power imbalances reinforce disunity. Lessons

from failed implementation and inadequate incentives must be learned if power sharing is to be considered a solution for peace in other conflict environments around the world.

Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

The stability and proper functioning of countries is in the best interest of the international system. Costly wars, regional destabilization, loss of life, economic disruption, and the need for large amounts of aid are a few of the many reasons the international community is an important stakeholder in the durability and peaceful dissolution of GNUs. Particularly, the United States has a vested interest in the future of these nations for economic, political, and security reasons.

The survival and case study analyses presented have clarified features of GNUs and the broader context in which they emerge that affects how they dissolve. As such, the results of our analysis should be incorporated into risk analysis and other state assessments when GNUs formation is being considered. Additionally, consideration of the stage in which a GNU is currently at (i.e., formation, existence, dissolution) is important in weighing the appropriate policy response.

Our findings can inform policy decisions throughout the GNU establishment timeline. For example, our analysis of a country’s contextual characteristics can be most helpful from the pre- GNU establishment perspective: for instance, knowing that GNUs established in the wake of ideological conflict may result in more successful GNU dissolution, the United States may urge the establishment of a GNU in these circumstances. Certainly, this information can also help from a post-establishment perspective. For example, GNUs already established in post- ideological-conflict countries will be more stable than those in countries where other sorts of conflicts preceded the GNU. Therefore, intervention and support may not be as great a necessity in ensuring peaceful dissolution. However, this policy is passive; from a pre-establishment perspective this finding offers active policy implications.

Providing government services and outputs, like establishing and enacting rule of law, are important post-GNU establishment intervention and support strategies. United States policymakers can expect that improving a GNU’s rule of law efficacy can lead to a more successful dissolution. Therefore, in considering aid packages, the United States can seek to specifically bolster a country’s rule of law, or explore other institutional strengthening approaches that may improve the likelihood a GNU, once established, dissolves peacefully.

The policy alternatives offered and evaluated below will be more or less feasible and more or less effective depending on the time (pre- or post-GNU establishment) in which they are implemented. Based on the variables identified as significant through our quantitative analysis as well as the implications of case study findings, this section describes and evaluates four broad and flexible policy options for the U.S. government.

Take No Action Given the significant impact contextual factors have on durability, taking no action to enhance or inhibit peaceful dissolution of GNUs is an attractive and feasible option. Characteristics of conflict, levels of heterogeneity, and other historical contextual attributes may be beyond the scope of intervention. More specifically, our analysis demonstrates that while GNUs may incorporate all four dimensions of power-sharing, full and fair implementation of these dimensions is difficult to ensure. The absence or exclusion of a major party in negotiations can doom any agreement before its’ signing. Moreover, intervention in complex conflict zones is

politically and financially costly and carries great risk of failure. In light of these issues, some scholars have advocated taking no action in unstable states. However, competing norms such as the social costs, economic implications, and potential regional spillover issues may render this option infeasible.

Increase Access To and Role in International Organizations for GNUs Involvement of third parties as mediators, economic support, and peacekeepers contributes to the stability of emergent governance and adherence to peace agreement protocols. However, for individual state actors, these roles are difficult and costly. Therefore, engaging GNUs in regional or international organizations spreads cost and risk among players. International organizations that are seen as legitimate by opposing parties, and that can marshal resources to maintain peace and enhance government output, can play an important role in peaceful dissolution. Access to these circles, and support for negotiations and enforcement is important. Additionally, more diplomatic contact between GNU representatives offers the possibility that problem areas or potential sources of conflict can be identified at an earlier junction and prevented. Thus opening these spaces for opposition parties to deliberate, receive support, and ensure enforcement is feasible and likely effective at creating durable, transitional institutions.

Strengthen Government Institutions Our analysis implicates the potential role of institutions and government output in maintaining peace and proper functioning of GNUs once formed. Strong institutions can provide basic services, ensure security, and signal stability to other countries. They incentivize cooperation among parties by creating higher consequences for defection. Our analysis uncovered statistically significant relationships on our institutional strength measure (rule of law), thus policy that supports institution building, maintenance, and quality improvement is critical. Yet, similar to the other options, there are high costs and risks to this approach. Additionally, previous research outlines the difficulty of supporting institution building. There is no template for nation building, as most state institutions reflect their political culture and historical context. However, it is feasible to provide strategic support to specific institutions, or act as a supplemental provider of services in the interim while these entities develop and mature. States can partner with non- state providers of service and engage GNUs through these organizations.

Incentivize Multi-Dimensional Power Sharing Our analysis confirms previous findings that the more power-sharing provisions within negotiated settlements that are implemented, the more likely peace will prevail. By encouraging the signing of provisions that decentralize power, create broader bases of support, and allow multiple actors to exert influence in various systems, GNUs are more likely to dissolve peacefully. Political power sharing is not sufficient; rather power sharing in economic, military, and territorial affairs has a stronger effect on dissolution type. From the understanding gleaned by the Tajikistan case, we find that military power-sharing is critical to securing high costs to defection by former militarized parties.

International actors can facilitate and increase the likelihood of adopting and implementing multiple power-sharing provisions by providing economic, military, and political incentives.

Additionally, negotiated settlements are often mediated by third parties, in which case these parties may influence the depth of power sharing parties agree to. Thus, this option offers many strategic and diplomatic routes that may be more feasible than others given the flexibility of implementation.

Appendix A. Governments of National Unity 1975-2012

Table A1. Database of identified GNUs, Country, Start and End Dates, Dissolution, and Type of Power-Sharing Agreement P=political, E=economic, M=military, T=territorial. Key to citations is in Table A2; where possible, the actual agreement is cited. Start End Type of Power Country Description of GNU Year Year Outcome Sharing Citations Afghanistan Peshawar Accord 1992 1993 Dissolution With Conflict P, M a,b Afghanistan Islamabad Accord 1994 1995 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, M a,b Afghanistan Bonn Agreement 2001 2004 Transition Agreement P, M a Angola Gbadolite Declaration on Angola 1989 1990 Dissolution With Conflict P a Angola Bicesse Accord 1991 1992 Dissolution With Conflict P, M a Angola Lusaka Protocol-GURN 1994 2008 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M, T a Azerbaijan Bishkek Protocol 1994 1995 Dissolution Without Conflict P, T a Bangladesh Chittagong Hill Tracts Agreement 1997 2012 Right Censored P, T, M a Benin Power-Sharing Agreement 1990 1991 Transition Agreement P, E, T, M c, d, e Bolivia Megacoalición 1979 1980 Dissolution Without Conflict P f, g Bolivia Pact for Democracy 1985 1989 Dissolution Without Conflict P h 2005 Elections Won by Movimiento al i, j Bolivia 2005 2009 Dissolution Without Conflict P Socialismo Bosnia Dayton Accord 1995 2012 Right Censored P, T, M k Burundi La Convention de Gouvernement 1994 1996 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, M l, m Arusha Peace and Reconcilliation n Burundi 1998 2000 Transition Agreement P, E, T, M Agreement for Burundi Burundi Arusha Accords 2001 2005 Dissolution Without Conflict P a Result of 1991 Paris Peace Accords-- k, o Cambodia 1993 1997 Dissolution With Conflict P, M "Supreme National Council" Cambodia Power-Sharing Agreement 1998 2003 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, M p Central African q National Transitional Council 2003 2005 Dissolution Without Conflict P Republic Central African r, s Comprehensive Peace Agreement 2008 2011 Dissolution With Conflict P, M Republic Chad Transitional Government of National Unity 1979 1980 Dissolution With Conflict P, T, M k, t Higher Transitional Council: Agreement u Between Government of Chad and the Chad 1996 1998 Transition Agreement P Movement for Democracy and Development Peace Agreement between the Government a Chad of Chad and the Mouvement pour la 2002 2003 Dissolution With Conflict P, M Démocratie et la Justice au Tchad Chad Power-Sharing Agreement 2007 2008 Transition Agreement P, T, M a Chad Power-Sharing Agreement 2009 2009 Transition Agreement P, T, M q, a Colombia Political Accord with M-19 1990 1990 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M v, w Common Agenda for the Path to a New v Colombia 1999 2000 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, T, M Colombia Framework Accord for Reconciliation in a, x Comoros 2001 2001 Transition Agreement P, E, T, M Comoros Comoros Transitional National Unity Government 2002 2003 Dissolution Without Conflict P y Comoros Pour la Gestion de la Periode Interimaire 2010 2011 Dissolution Without Conflict P, T a Congo Libreville Accord 1993 1994 Dissolution With Conflict P z Accord de Cessez-le-Feu et de Cessation aa, ab Congo 1999 2002 Transition Agreement P, M des Hostilités Peace Accord between the Congolese ac Congo 2003 2007 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M Government and the Ninjas

Start End Type of Power Country Description of GNU Year Year Outcome Sharing Citations Côte d’Ivoire Power-Sharing agreement 2002 2002 Transition Agreement P ad Côte d'Ivoire Linas-Marcoussis Peace Accords 2003 2004 Dissolution With Conflict P, M ae, af Côte d’Ivoire Ouagadougou Peace Agreement 2007 2010 Dissolution With Conflict P, M ag, af Third Croation Government, Franjo ah Croatia 1991 1992 Dissolution Without Conflict P Gregurić Croatia Erdut Agreement 1995 2000 Dissolution With Conflict P a Agreement on Peace and National a Djibouti 1994 1999 Dissolution With Conflict P, E Reconciliation General Agreement on Reform and Civil a Djibouti 2000 2005 Dissolution Without Conflict P Concord DRC Sovereign National Convention 1991 1992 Transition Agreement P ai Democratic aj All-Inclusive Agreement on the Transition in Republic of 2002 2006 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M the Democratic Republic of Congo Congo El Salvador Chapultepec Peace Accords 1992 1994 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, M a, ak Equatorial GNU under Democratic Party of Equatorial al 2002 2006 Transition Agreement P Guinea Guinea Obiang National Federation Party and Fiji Labour am Fiji 1987 1988 Dissolution With Conflict P Party Coalition Government Between Four am Fiji 1999 2000 Dissolution With Conflict P Parties Gabon Power-Sharing Agreement 1994 1996 Dissolution Without Conflict P a, an Agreement on the Implementation, k, ao, a Guatemala Compliance, and Verification Timetable for 1996 1999 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, T the Peace Agreements Guinea Ouagadou 2010 2010 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M a, ap Agreement Between the Government of k, aq Guinea-Bissau Guinea Bissau and the Self-Proclaimed 1998 1999 Dissolution With Conflict P, M Military Junta Guinea-Bissau Pact of Stability 2007 2009 Dissolution With Conflict P, M aq Iraq Erbil Agreement 2010 2011 Dissolution Without Conflict P a, ar Grand Coalition Cabinet-National Accord a, as Kenya 2008 2012 Right Censored P and Reconciliation Act Laos National Assembly 1974 1975 Dissolution With Conflict P, M at, au Lebanon Taif Accord 1989 1992 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M k, av Doha Agreement on the Results of the a, aw Lebanon 2008 2009 Dissolution Without Conflict P Lebanese National Dialogue Conference Liberia Yamoussoukro I, II, III 1991 1992 Right Censored P, M a Liberia Cotonou Agreement 1993 1994 Transition Agreement P a Liberia Abuja Agreement and Supplements 1996 1997 Dissolution With Conflict P a Liberia Accra Peace Accord 2003 2006 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, M a Libya National Transitional Government 2011 2012 Dissolution Without Conflict P, T a Madagascar High Transitional Authority 2009 2010 Transition Agreement P, E, M a Madagascar National Union Transitional Government 2011 2012 Right Censored P a Maldives Power-Sharing Agreement 2012 2012 Right Censored P a Pacte National Conclu entre le a Gouvernement de la République du Mali et Mali les Mouvements et Fronts Unifiés de 1991 1992 Dissolution With Conflict P, T, M l’Azawad Consacrant le Statut Particulier du Nord au Mali Mali Power-Sharing Agreement 2012 2012 Dissolution With Conflict P, M a, ax Mauritania Power-Sharing Agreement 2009 2009 Dissolution Without Conflict P a, ay Transitional Government Established by az, ba Mozambique 1975 1977 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M Adoption of Lusaka Accords

Start End Type of Power Country Description of GNU Year Year Outcome Sharing Citations Mozambique General Peace Agreement for Mozambique 1992 1994 Dissolution Without Conflict P, T, M k, bb Comprehensive Peace Accord- Transitional a, bc Nepal 2006 2010 Transition Agreement P Agreement Seven Point Agreement-Interim a, bd Nepal 2011 2012 Right Censored P, M Government Nicaragua Tela Accord 1989 1990 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, T, M be Paraguay Power-Sharing Agreement 1999 2003 Dissolution Without Conflict P bf Protocol of Agreement on Power-sharing a, bg within the Framework of a Broad-based Rwanda Transitional Government between the 1993 1994 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, M Government of the Republic of Rwanda and the Rwandese Patriotic Front Sierra Leone Abidjan Peace Agreement 1996 1997 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, M a Sierra Leone Lome Peace Agreement 1999 2000 Dissolution With Conflict P a South Africa National Peace Accord 1991 1993 Transition Agreement P, E, T, M a, bh South Africa Power-Sharing Agreement 1994 1999 Dissolution Without Conflict P, E, T, M bi Sudan Addis Ababa Agreement 1972 1983 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, T, M k, bj Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement 2005 2010 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, T bk Tajikistan Government of National Reconciliation 1992 1992 Dissolution With Conflict P bl 1997 General Agreement on the bm Tajikistan Establishment of Peace and National 1997 1999 Dissolution Without Conflict P, M Accord and its' related protocols United Nations Transitional Agreement in bn Timor-Leste 1999 2002 Transition Agreement P, T, M Eastern Timor President Sharing with Transitional bo Togo 1990 1993 Dissolution With Conflict P, E, T, M Government Tunisia Government of National Unity 2011 2011 Dissolution With Conflict P bp Agreement Between Government of bq Uganda Uganda and the Uganda National Rescue 2002 2006 Dissolution With Conflict P, T Front Uganda Final Peace Agreement 2007 2008 Dissolution With Conflict P br Vanuatu Power-Sharing Agreement 1978 1979 Dissolution Without Conflict P bs Yemen 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council Agreement 2011 2012 Right Censored P, E, M bt Zimbabwe Power-Sharing Agreement 2009 2012 Right Censored P a

Table A2. Listed Citations for Governments of National Unity

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Cordell, Dennis D. 2014. “Republic of the Congo.” Encyclopaedia Britannica. ad http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/132321/Republic-of-the-Congo/40726/Congo-since-independence. OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). 2005. Republic of Congo 2005 Mid-Year Review. ae Geneva, Switzerland. https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/CAP/MYR_2005_RoC.pdf. United Nations Mission in Cote d’Ivoire. 2004. “Cote d’Ivoire - MINUCI - Background.” af https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/CAP/MYR_2005_RoC.pdf. Government of Cote d’Ivoire. 2003. “Linas-Marcoussis Agreement.” Linas-Marcoussis, France. ag http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/file/resources/collections/peace_agreements/cote_divoire_01242003en.pdf. ah British Broadcasting Corporation. 2015. “Ivory Coast Profile - Timeline.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13287585. Government of Cote d’Ivoire. 2007. “Ouagadougou Political Agreement.” Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. ai https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/sites/default/files/accords/Ouagadougou_Political_Agreement_OPA.pdf. European Election Database. 2015. “Croatia - Background.” aj http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/country/croatia/introduction.html. Doxtader, Erik, and Charles Villa-Vicencio. 2003. Through Fire with Water: The Roots of Division and the Potential for Reconciliation ak in Africa. Trenton, N.J.: Africa World Press, Inc. Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 2002. “Global and Inclusive Agreement on Transition in the DR Congo: Inter- al Congolese Dialogue- Political Negotiations on the Peace Process and on Transition in the DRC.” Pretoria, Republic of South Africa. http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/global-and-inclusive-agreement-transition-dr-congo-inter-congolese. am Studemeister, Margarita S. 2001. “El Salvador: Implementation of the Peace Accords.” Peaceworks, no. No. 38: 1–62. an Freedom House. 2005. “Equatorial Guinea.” https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2005/equatorial-guinea#.VQog4Y7F-So. ao The Commonwealth. 2015. “Fiji: History.” ap Usa, Ibp. 2009. Gabon Foreign Policy and Government Guide. Washington, D.C.: International Business Publications. Arieff, Alexis. 2010. “Guinea’s New Transitional Government: Emerging Issues for U.S. Policy.” Congressional Research Service aq Report for Congress, 1–12. ar IRIN (Integrated Regional Information Networks). 2010. “Guinea-Bissau: Key Political Events since Independence.” The Kurdistan Regional Government Representation in Austria. 2013. “The Erbil Agreement 2010.” http://austria.krg.org/en/das- as erbil-abkommen-2010/. at Mutua, Martin. 2012. “Grand Coalition Takes the Last Lap.” Kofi Annan Foundation. au “Keesing’s Contemporary Archives.” 1974. London: Keesing’s Limited. av Hayles, John. 2004. “Laos National History.” aw Government of Lebanon. 1989. “Ta’if Accord.” Ta’if, Saudi Arabia. https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/accord/taif-accord. ax Yacoubian, Mona. 2009. “Lebanon’s Unstable Equilibrium.” United States Institute of Peace Peace Briefing, 1–9. ay British Broadcasting Corporation. 2015. “Mali Profile - Timeline.” az U.S. Department of State. 2009. “Mauritania (09/09).” Machel, Samora. 1974. Frelimo and the Transitional Government of Mozambique: The Lusaka Agreement. The South African ba Institute of International Affairs. Johannesburg, South Africa: Braamfontein. bb Rupiya, Martin. 1998. “Historical Context: War and Peace in Mozambique.” Accord, no. 3: 10–17. bc Inter-Parliamentary Union. 2008. “Mozambique.” PARLINE Database. Wakugawa, Izumi, Prawash Gautam, and Anil Shrestha. 2011. From Conflict to Peace in Nepal - Peace Agreements 2005-2010. bd DCAF (Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces). Kathmandu, Nepal: Asian Study Center for Peace & Conflict Transformation, Kathmandu. be Al-jazeera. 2014. “Nepal Takes Step towards New Constitution.” bf The Carter Center. 1990. “Observing Nicaragua’s Elections, 1989-1990.” https://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1153.pdf. Freedom House. 2002. “Paraguay.” Freedom in the World 2002. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- bg world/2002/paraguay#.VQtPE0ZGaT8. Government of the Republic of Rwanda. 1992. “Peace Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Rwanda and the bh Rwandese Patriotic Front.” Arusha, Tanzania. http://www.incore.ulst.ac.uk/services/cds/agreements/pdf/rwan1.pdf. Spies, Chris. 2002. “South Africa’s National Peace Accord: Its Structures and Functions.” Accord, no. 13. http://www.c-r.org/accord- bi article/south-africa%E2%80%99s-national-peace-accord-its-structures-and-functions. bj “Keesing’s Contemporary Archives.” 1994. London: Keesing’s Limited. Byrnes, Rita M. 1996. South Africa: A Country Study. Washington, D.C.: GPO for the Library of Congress. bk http://countrystudies.us/south-africa/73.htm. Shinn, David H. 2004. “Addis Ababa Agreement: Was It Destined to Fail and Are There Lessons for the Current Sudan Peace bl Process?” Annales d’Ethiopie 20: 239–59. bm British Broadcasting Corporation. 2015. “Sudan Profile - Timeline.” http://m.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14095300.

bn McAuliffe, Conor. 2006. “Tajikistan Peace Negotiations.” Al Nakhlah, 1–13. Abdullaev, Kamoludin, and Catherine Barnes, eds. 2001. Politics of Compromise: The Tajikistan Peace Process. London: bo Conciliation Resources. United Nations Department of Public Information. 2001. “East Timor- UNTAET.” bp http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/past/etimor/UntaetBC.htm. Soble, Maya. 1972. “Decline, Destitution and the Transition to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective on Building Democracies in bq West Africa.” Marchés Tropicaux et Méditerranéens 1413: 3483. br British Broadcasting Corporation. 2015. “Tunisia Profile - Timeline.” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14107720. Government of the Republic of Uganda. 2002. “The Peace Agreement Between The Government of the Republic of Uganda and bs The Uganda National Rescue Front II.” Arua, Uganda. bt The Enough Project. “Lord’s Resistance Army: Key Terms and People.” bu The Commonwealth. 2015. “Vanuatu: History.” Government of the Republic of Yemen. 2011. “Yemen Transition Agreement.” Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. http://www.al- bv bab.com/arab/docs/yemen/yemen_transition_agreement.htm#Part IV.

Appendix B. Technical Notes

The following has been pulled largely from Cleves et al. (2008) and is a more technical explanation of the process of survival analysis included in this paper (Cleves 2008).

Survival analysis originated in the health and social sciences as a way to track the success of a drug or the effects of some treatment over time. Specifically, survival analysis is a time-to-event method that produces a positive random variable, effectively identifying the time it takes for a government of national unity to fail (fall to conflict). The survival output helps to identify relevant correlated determinants that affect the success or failure of a unity government.

In survival analysis, a hazard function predicts the conditional failure rate of GNUs. To construct the hazard function, we create a survivor function that represents the reverse cumulative distribution function of T to construct the cumulative density function that is used in the hazard function to predict the hazard rate. T is a nonnegative random variable that demonstrates the time before one observes a “failure event” (Cleves et al., 2008, 7). The hazard function is also known as the intensity function and is the probability that a GNU will fail at any given point within the interval represented in our data.

S(t) = 1 – F(t) = Pr(T > t)

f(t) = dF(t)/dt = d/dt[1-S(t) = -S’(t)

h(t) = lim Δt-->0 Pr(t + Δt > T > t | T>t)/ΔT = f(t)/S(t)

For our analysis, the hazard rate was such that, the coefficient represented the ratio of the hazard function that corresponds to a one-unit (1 year) change in the corresponding covariate. This designation enabled us to estimate the increasing risk of failure for a GNU case in each year. For example, if the coefficient for the conflict variable was equal to 0.18, then the presence of conflict within a country’s sovereign borders would equal a 20 percent increase in the hazard rate, because exp(0.18) = 1.20 (Cleves et al., 2007, 134).

Semi-Parametric Model There are three main categories of survival analysis: parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric. Parametricity refers to the degree of proportionality observed within the data. Semiparametric is a combination of several separate binary-outcome analyses (Cleves et al., 2008, 6). Because of the presence of qualitative covariates included in this data set, semiparametric modeling produced the most accurate estimates. According to Cleves et al. (2008), when there are no covariates present in the model, the parametric Cox model will produce estimates that are identical to nonparametric models (6).

Cox Model The Cox model of survival analysis is a common form of survival analysis and assumes that the covariates multiplicatively shift the baseline hazard function and has several other benefits (Cleves et al., 2007, 129). The first benefit of using the Cox model is that it does not require the estimation of a baseline hazard function, and instead estimates the distribution. Because the

intercept is developed from the baseline hazard function, the Cox model has no intercept and Stata is unable to identify the intercept from the data (Cleves et al., 2007, 134). The model also has increased flexibility as it does not place any restrictions on the shape of the hazard function over time. Finally, the Cox model states that the covariates among different independent variables in the equation do not change over time (Cleves et al., 2007, 132).

L(βldata) = L(analysis 1)L(Analysis 2)....L(Analysis N)

The likelihood function we derived was from each analysis of the time varying covariates and was adapted to the arguments we made about the nature of GNU dissolution. For instance, if we decided to group independent variables to test a hypothesis regarding their impact on dissolution type, the likelihood of failure would have been the sum total of the explanatory variables specified in the model. In other words, the likelihood function was sensitive to selection. Furthermore, the weights of importance assigned to the variables we measure directly affect how we interpreted this survival model output.

Time-Variant Covariates Time-variant covariates are those independent variables in our analysis that are time-dependent. This means the value of our time-variant covariates will change within a GNU in a given period of time. For our model, these included characteristics such as GDP per capita, access to water and sanitation, corruption, strength of legal rights, and conflict. Time-invariant measures included agreement characteristics such as the type of power sharing, or the presence of a third- party enforcer.

Breslow vs. Efron Method for Approximating Discrete Likelihood of Failure The proportional hazards model does not assume that ties are possible because it estimates a continuous hazard. Breslow’s method tends to bias estimates of our coefficients toward zero when there are large numbers of ties, such as in our analysis.

Efron’s method is still biased toward zero with too many ties, but typically provides more accurate estimates than Breslow’s. The exact method used in this analysis calculated all possible orderings and sums the probabilities of each tied event that occurred. This method was useful due to the imprecise measurements in this analysis, both due to measurement problems and a lack of data.

Appendix C. Model Specifications and Results

Table C1. Model 1 Failure Results with Coefficients and Confidence Interval The Log-likelihood is -22.55 and the probability that estimates are greater than chi-squared is 0.02. Confidence Interval Variables Measures Coefficient Minimum Maximum P-Value 0.61 Population Heterogeneity Fractionalization -0.58 1.81 0.31 Std. Err: 0.61 0.23 Number of Power-Sharing Types in Agreement -0.74 1.19 0.65 Std. Err: 0.49 GNU Agreement -0.12 Presence of Third-Party Enforcer -1.70 1.47 0.89 Std. Err: 0.81 -0.05 Duration -0.01 0.11 0.53 Std. Err: 0.08 -0.05 Preceding Conflict Outcome: Stalemate -1.61 1.52 0.96 Std. Err: 0.80 -1.52 Type: Ideological -3.35 0.30 0.10 Std. Err: 0.93 -0.0001 GDP per Capita Std. Err: 9.6 -0.00031 0.00006 0.17 Economic Development x 10-5 0.01 GDP growth -0.14 0.16 0.90 Std. Err: 0.77 2.54 Institutions Rule of Law 0.82 4.26 0.004 Std. Err: 0.88 0.48 Control Conflict -1.66 2.62 0.66 Std. Err: 1.09

Table C2. Model 2: Success Results with Coefficients and Confidence Interval Log-likelihood is -21.07 and the probability our estimates are greater than chi-squared is 0.02. 95% Confidence Interval Variables Measures Coefficient Minimum Maximum P-Value -1.30 Population Heterogeneity Fractionalization -2.07 -0.53 0.001 Std. Err: 0.39 -0.07 Number of Power-Sharing Types in Agreement -1.02 0.88 .89 Std. Err: 0.49 GNU Agreement 0.25 Presence of Third-Party Enforcer -1.07 1.57 0.71 Std. Err: 0.67 0.08 Duration -0.05 0.21 0.21 Std. Err: 0.07 0.39 Preceding Conflict Outcome: Stalemate -0.97 1.74 0.58 Std. Err: 0.69 1.40 Type: Ideological 0.23 2.57 0.02 Std. Err: 0.60 -0.000065 GDP per Capita Std. Err: 4.7 1.6 x 10-4 2.7 x 10-5 0.16 Economic Development x 10-5 0.03 GDP Growth 0.01 0.05 0.01 Std. Err: 0.01 -0.23 Institutions Rule of Law -1.64 1.17 0.74 Std. Err: 0.72 -0.42 Control Conflict -1.49 0.64 0.44 Std. Err: 0.54

Table C3. GNU Summary Statistics by Duration, Model 1: Failure Duration of GNUs Years at Risk of Failure Incidence of Failure Number of GNUs 1 10 0.3 10 2 76 0.24 38 3 33 0.06 11 4 40 0.08 10 5 55 0.04 11 6 36 0.11 6 12 12 0.08 1 15 15 0 1 16 16 0 1 18 18 0 1 Total 311 0.11 90

Table C4. GNU Summary Statistics by Duration, Model 2: Success Duration of GNUs Years at Risk of Failure Incidence of Failure Number of GNUs 1 10 0.3 10 2 75 0.14 38 3 33 0.15 11 4 40 0.08 10 5 55 0.11 11 6 36 0.06 6 12 12 0 1 15 15 0.07 1 16 16 0 1 18 18 0 1 Total 310 0.1 90

Table C5. GNU Summary Statistics by Outcome of Interest Outcome Years at Risk of Failure or Success Incidence of Outcome Number of GNUs Dissolution without Conflict 109 0.29 31 Dissolution with Conflict 103 0.32 33 Transition Agreement 47 0 17 Right-Censored 52 0 9 Total 311 0.11 90

Table C6. Summary Statistics for Rule of Law Index Observed Rule of Percentiles Smallest Law 1% -2.07 -2.23 5% -1.71 -2.07 10% -1.62 -1.84 25% -1.43 -1.81 50% -1.13 Largest 75% -0.79 -0.13 90% -0.49 -0.01 95% -0.34 0.01 99% 0.01 0.16 Table C7. Summary Statistics for Rule of Law Index, continued Observations 169.00 Mean -1.09 Standard Deviation 0.44 Variance 0.20 Skewness 0.31 Kurtosis 2.72

Table C8. Summary Statistics for GDP Growth Observed GDP Percentiles Smallest Growth 1% -32.83 -62.08 5% -2.91 -32.83 10% -1.21 -15.09 25% 2.20 -6.65 50% 4.53 Largest 75% 6.81 20.74 90% 11.38 22.60 95% 16.37 38.00 99% 38.00 104.48 Table C9. Summary Statistics for GDP Growth, Continued Observations 165.00 Mean 5.11 Standard Deviation 11.35 Variance 128.71 Skewness 2.78 Kurtosis 45.07

Table C10. Summary Statistics for Ideological Conflict Percentiles Smallest 1% 0.00 0.00 5% 0.00 0.00 10% 0.00 0.00 25% 0.00 0.00 50% 0.00 Largest 75% 1.00 1.00 90% 1.00 1.00 95% 1.00 1.00 99% 1.00 1.00 Table C11. Summary Statistics for Ideological Conflict, Continued Observations 311 Mean 0.36 Standard Deviation 0.48 Variance 0.23 Skewness 0.60 Kurtosis 1.36

Table C12. Summary Statistics for Outcome: Stalemate Percentiles Smallest 1% 0 0 5% 0 0 10% 0 0 25% 0 0 50% 0 Largest 75% 1 1 90% 1 1 95% 1 1 99% 1 1

Table C13. Summary Statistics for Outcome: Stalemate, Continued Observations 311 Mean 0.32 Standard Deviation 0.47 Variance 0.22 Skewness 0.75 Kurtosis 1.56

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