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Produced by the NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI) sr° NASA CR-188270 Com 21.384-T8 (NASA —CR-168270) STUDY TO FORECAST AND N84-16426 DETERMINE CHARAC.:ERISTICS OF WORLD SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS MARKET (Communimetrics, Inc.) 112 p HC A06/MF A01 CSCL 17B Unclas G3/32 18151 WORLD COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND FORECAST 3 by R. Filep, A. Schnaps', and S. Fordyce COMMUNICATIONS 21 CORPORATION r: f ^ prepared for Li NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION N ^ dp NASA Lewis Research Center Y Contract NAS 3.23782 r^ 1 W A p \+l i 1. Report No ^Government Access¢n No 3. Retapient's Catalog No CR 168270 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Study to forecast and determine characteristics of World November, 1903 Satellite Communications market 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) B. Performing Organization Report No Dr. Robert T. Filep, Abraham Schnapf and Samuel 11. Fordyce _ 10. Work Unit No 9. Performing Organization Name and Address Communications 21 Corporation 11. Contract or Grant No Suite 206 WAS +-23782 1611 South Pacific Coast Highway Redondo Beath, CA 90277 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Contractor Report NASA - Lewis Research Center 21000 Brookpark Road 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Cleveland, Oil 44135 15. Supplementary Notes Project Manager, David Namkoong, Communications Section, NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, Volumes, 1 16. Abstract The project focused upon the world commercial communications satellite market during the spring and summer of 1983 and developed characteristics and forecasts of the market extending to the year 2000. Past, present and planned satellites were documented in relation to frequencies, procurement and launch date:'•, costs, transponders, and prime contractor. Characteristics of the market were outlined for the periods 1965 - 1985, 1986 - 1989, and 1990 - It>r 2000. Market share forecasts, discussions of potential competitors in various world markets, and profiles of major communiration satellite manufacturing and user countries are dorumented. 6, ORIGINAL PAGE 9Z OF POOR QUALR 17. Key Words (Suggested by Author(s) I la. Distribution Statement Communication Satellites, World Market Forecast Frequency Bands, Satellite characteristics, Unclassified Expenditure levels, National communication satellite activies. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif, (of this Pagel No. of 21.Pages 22. Price' Unclassified Unclassified 112 For sale by the Na.ional Technical Information Service, Spnnglleld. Virginia 22161 Itn-- NASA-C-168 (Rev. 10.75) r ' .t WORLD COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE MARKET CHARACTERISTICS AND FORECAST TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTERS Page I. SUMMARY 1 '. II. INTRODUCTION 5 Project Objectives 5 Documentation and Analysis Periods 6 Organizations 7 ,. Major Communication Satellite Countries 9 ` III. WORLDWIDE COMMUNICATION SATELLITE ACTIVITIES 11 E? THROUGH 1985 '.I Estimated Worldwide Investment 11 Expenditure by Frequency Band 11 Satellites Launched by Frequency Band 11 ' Satellite Market Share by Frequency Band 15 IV. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATION 17 SATELLITES V. FORECAST OF ACTIVITIES FROM 1986 to 1989 35 f` Estimated Worldwide Investment 35 Expenditure by Frequency Band 35 Satellites Launched by Frequency Band 35 Satellite Market Share by Frequency Band 35 VI, FORECAST OF ACTIVITIES FROM 1990 to 2000 41 Estimated Wo-ldwide Investment 41 Expenditure by Frequency Band 41 Satellites Launched by Frequency Band 44 Satellite Market Share by Frequency Band 44 Z VII. PROFILES OF MAJOR COUNTRIES INVOLVED IN SATELLITE 49 ENDEAVORS g`I 1. Introduction 49 a 2. Europe as a Major Center of Activity 50 i France 54 WT- 55 TTcom 1 57 Thompson CSF 58 D V 'at 59 i &I ORIGINAL PAGE IB OF POOR QUALITY TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) CHAPTERS Page Germany 61 United'ted Kin dom 63 e 65 keN therlands 67 +'nSpat 68 Sweden 68 oV^rwa - 70 3, Middle East 71 4. Australia 71 5. Asia/South and East 72 Indonesia 72 India 72 People's Republic of China 74 6. Asia/Japan 75 Introduction 75 T a na s Tncl-ustries Role in Space 78 escrt tion of a an s ommuntcation Satellites 83 Overview of Expenditures for Space 86 uture apanese pace rograms 89 7. North America/Canada 92 VIII MARKET SHARE CAPTURE 95 IX. SOME SCENARIOS THAT COULD ALTER SATELLITE 103 MARKET PROJECTIONS APPENDIX 107 A. Assaying Commercial Communication Satellite Costs 107 B. The French Space Budget (1981-1983) 110 SELECTED REFERENCES 111 ^I F --- — __ - - FIGURES FIGURE Page(s) 1. Estimated Worldwide Investment in Commercial 12 Communication Satellites 1965 - 1985 2. Expenditures for Communication Satellites 13 • By Frequency 1965 - 1985 3. Satellites Launched or Planned in Various 14 Frequency Bands 1965 - 1985 ' 4. Satellite Market Share by Frequency 16 Bands 1965 - 1985 ? 5. Estimated Worldwide Investment in Commercial 36 Communication Satellites 1986 - 1989 6. Planned Expenditures for Communication Satellites 37 By Frequency Band 1986 - 1989 p 7. Satellites Planned in Various Frequency 38 i Bands 1986 - 2000 8. Satellite Market Share by Frequency Bands 40 1=i 1986 - 1989 f. 9. Planned Worldwide Investment in Commercial 42 Communication Satellites 1990 - 2000 10. Planned Expenditures for Communication Satellites 43 By Frequency Band 1990 - 2000 11. Satellites Planned in Various Frequency Bands 45 1990 - 2000 .I 12. Satellite Market Share by Frequency Bands 46 1990 - 2000 it 13. Actual and Planned Expenditures for Communication 47 Satellites by Frequency Band 1965 - 2000 O' TABLES TABLE Page(s) • I Past, Present and Future Commercial 19-34 • Satellites (As of September 1, 1983) 1. Japanese Budget for Space Activities 80 ,t.. 2. NASDA Application Satellites 81 3. Japan's Communication Satellite Evolution 82 i 4. Japanese Space Programs Domestic Versus 88 Foreign Fabrication b. Japanese INTELSAT Contracts 88 6. Cost of Japanese Space Programs 90 7. "Estimated No." of Satellites of 96 Undetermined Market 1986 - 2000 8. "Estimated No." of Satellite Sales by Export 97 Region 1986 - 2000 9. Satellites Scheduled: Estimated New and 99 Replacement 1984 - 2000 10. INTELSAT IV - Subcontractors 100 11. INTELSAT V - Subcontractors 101 12. INTELSAT VI - Subcontractors 101 Appendix B The French Space Budget (1981-1983) 110 iv 0• I. SUMMARY PROJECT OBJECTIVES The overall objective of the project is to describe and forecast characteristics of the world communications satellite market u V2 to the year 2000. The specific project tasks are: 1. Document Events To Date Task 1 identifies the communications satellites operating worldwide and tabulates the quantifiable data that exist in the historical files regarding each satellite. Data include procurement and launch dates, fixed service bands (C, Ku, and Ka), DBS bands, other advanced fre- quencies, satellite prime contractor, and satellite cost whenever available. If actual costs are not available, reliable estimates are provided. 2. Market Forecast Task 2 develops a forecast of the worldwide commercial communica- Y a tions satellite market for the period up to 1990 and the period up to M M 2000. This forecast: r a) Includes expenditures for the total communications satellite systems by frequency band types (C, Ku, Ka, DBS bands, and advanced frequencies). i b) Estimates the portion of the above expenditures that are t 1r expected to be provided by the manufacturers within the 9i.. country originating the system (domestic), and the portion h:. expected to be supplied by foreign manufacturers. is -1- ' J J O' c) Documents present and potential future suppliers of communica- tions satellite systems by frequency band types and services, k both U.S. and foreign. 3. Forecast Potential Competitors Using the data from Task 2, Task 3 estimates the market share of each of the potential competitors in the world communications satellite market according to frequency band types and according to whether the supplier is domestic or foreign. The past and planned expenditures for communication satellites commencing in 1965 and extending to the year 2000 are estimated to be 19 billion 266 million dollars. A potential 409 commercial communication satellite launches will have been recorded during the thirty-five year period. During the first third of time reported upon, two nations the United States and Canada, and the international organization INTELSAT, were the primary entities involved in the procurement and utilization of communication satellites. By the 1990's twenty countries and eight regional organizations will be participating as owners or operators of communications satellites. Patterns of use of various frequency bands for transmission from communication satellites, in the period to 1985 show that the four billion expended for satellites was primarily for C-band or single frequency capacity. Forecasts for the duration after 1990 reflect planned expenditures for spacecraft of eight and one-half billion dollars with multiple frequency capacity such as C/Ku band accounting for almost sixty percent of the total. The advent of the 80's was direct-broadcast satellite use in the Ku-band. This commercial service continues to be seen as expanding. Approximately one-fifth of the planned expenditures after 1985 are for this type of satellite. f•.:' -'? A detailed table is provided of all the past, present, and pro- jected satellites from 1965 to 2000.