SECTORAL MOBILITY OF PRODUCTION FACTORS IN AGRICULTURE AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE * 1 1 VANDERMEULEN VALERIE , METTEPENNINGEN EVY , CALUS MIEKE 1 Ghent University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent, Belgium * Corresponding author. Tel.: +32 (0)9 264 59 43; fax: +32 (0)9 264 62 46; e-mail:
[email protected] Paper prepared for presentation at the 114th EAAE Seminar ‘Structural Change in Agriculture’, Berlin, Germany, April 15 - 16, 2010 Copyright 2010 by author(s). All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. 1 Abstract1 European agriculture has been characterized by a shift in structure towards larger farms with less labour employed. Within the current article we investigate the case of Flanders, a region in Belgium, and try to define what the sectoral shifts of labour and land have been in the past. Thereby we try to analyze and quantify structural change in Flemish agriculture, and to make projections for the future. The research was based on a Markov analysis of secondary census data, complemented by primary data obtained through a survey. In general it seems that structural change in Flemish agriculture follows the general trend of farms getting bigger, more specialized and employing more people per farm. This has consequences for productivity, efficiency, social and ecological effects of agriculture. Key Words Factor mobility, Agricultural sectors, Markov analysis, Structural change 1 Acknowledgments The data for this article have been collected in the framework of the project “Wijkers en Blijvers” executed by the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ghent and the Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research, and was financed by the Department Monitoring and Studies of the Administration for Agriculture and Horticulture of the Flemish Government.