ANALYSE

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS There are ever-increasing indi- cations that in the forthcom- ing elections, all the major parties will base their cam- POLIT-BAROMETER paigns on anti-GERB rhetoric. Year 20 Issue 8

October 2020 The organisers of the protests from the “Poisonous Trio”, the party of and “Stand up. BG” united in or- der to form a common net- Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) work of observers, which would be a guarantor for fair elections in the country.

The conflicts in BSP are not letting up and this may lead to a negative impact on the party in the forthcoming elections. FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS POLIT-BAROMETER Year 20 Issue 8 October 2020 CONTENTS

Contents

1. POLITICAL SITUATION 2

2. CONDITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM 5

3. PUBLIC OPINION 7

4. MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS 8

1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER

1 POLITICAL SITUATION

The protests in the country are continuing, but the num- tice, transparency, accountability and democracy.” The ber of protesters fell significantly in October. In spite of resolution condemned the violent and disproportionate this, the protests achieved one of their goals - intervention of the police, as well as allegations of the became the subject of a debate in the European Parlia- use of force against women, children and journalists, as ment, which voted on a resolution on the state of the well as “the illegal and excessive audits” of private com- rule of law in the country. panies which expressed their support for the protests. In the text there is mention of “a significant deterioration During the hearing in the , state- in respect for the principles of the rule of law, democracy ments of harsh criticism about the situation in Bulgar- and fundamental rights, including the independence of ia and the state of the rule of law and the fight against the judiciary, the separation of powers, the fight against corruption were made by groups of socialists and dem- corruption and freedom of the media”. The systematic ocrats, greens, European liberals and the far left. The problems in the activity of the Prosecutor General and European People’s Party defended the government, say- the lack of a legislative framework with which to hold ing it respected the protests of Bulgarian citizens, but it him accountable by the Supreme Judicial Council are would be the regular elections that would decide who also highlighted. would rule Bulgaria. A bad impression, which was widely discussed in Bulgaria, was made by the decision of the The resolution expresses deep concern at the deteriora- EPP not to allow Radan Kanev from Democratic Bulgaria tion of freedom of media, transparency in media own- to speak during the debate. This forced Kanev to send a ership, as well as allegations of European funding for written position. The statement of the leader of the EPP pro-government media. Attention is also drawn to the group , who said that the government need for tighter control over the way European funds has made progress on many issues that bring Bulgaria are spent and for an immediate response to fears that closer to Schengen and eurozone membership and that taxpayers’ money is being used to feather the nests of the country is on the right track, was met with dissat- people close to the ruling party. The resolution expressed isfaction and indignation by protesters in Bulgaria. This regret that Bulgaria had not adopted the Istanbul Con- position showed a deep lack of understanding of the vention due to a decision of the Constitutional Court. essence of the problems in Bulgaria related to high-lev- el corruption and the lack of effective counteraction by 23 MEPs from the EPP abstained, and 7 supported the res- the prosecution. Hundreds of comments followed on olution, thus failing to comply with party discipline. This Manfred Weber’s Facebook and Twitter pages, which showed that the EPP is not united in its support for GERB. showed the indignation of Bulgarian citizens. The EPP attempted to make a number of changes to the draft On the occasion of the resolution, the ruling party in resolution tabled by the Committee on Civil Liberties, Bulgaria castigated the Bulgarian MEPs from the opposi- Justice and Home Affairs - LIBE. During the debate, EU tion, accusing them of “national betrayal”. Prime Minister Commissioner Vera Jourova said Bulgaria remains under Borisov pointed out that the resolution included dan- double scrutiny - under the Co-operation and Verifica- gerous topics such as that of the Macedonian minority, tion Mechanism and the new rule of law mechanism for which, however, is not in the text. It only mentions that all member states. Bulgaria has been convicted by the European Court of Human Rights in connection with the refusal to register The resolution was voted on a few days after the debate the pro-Macedonian party OMO Ilinden. Radan Kanev in the European Parliament. None of the proposals for rejected the accusations of the ruling party, saying that changes by the EPP and the Bulgarian MEPs from GERB this problem arose because the state had failed to defend were accepted. The resolution was adopted with 358 itself with arguments in Strasbourg. According to Kanev, votes in favour, 277 against and 56 abstentions. It ex- the Bulgarian court was justified in not registering OMO presses “their unequivocal support for the people of Bul- Ilinden more than 15 years ago, as the organisation con- garia in their legitimate demands and aspirations for jus- tradicts the constitution because it calls for separatism.

2 THE POLITICAL SITUATION

GERB MEP Andrey Kovachev described the resolution as against him. Geshev was subjected to severe criticism “a party text and abuse of the European Parliament for by BSP, who confirmed that they were continuing to de- election purposes”. The Speaker of the National Assem- mand his resignation. Geshev’s report was voted on by bly Tsveta Karayancheva also saw in the resolution the GERB, and MRF. transfer of the election campaign in Bulgaria to Europe- an institutions, pointing out that the document has no The Union of Judges, the largest judicial organisation in legal value, but serves only as a recommendation. the country, has lodged a petition with the Supreme Ju- dicial Council to remove the chief prosecutor. As expect- Opposition parties in Bulgaria were unanimous that the ed, however, this request did not meet with the support resolution was an assessment of Prime Minister Borisov’s of the majority in the SJC, which did not respond to the rule over the past 10 years, which had led to “subjuga- systematic violations that Ivan Geshev has committed tion” of the country by oligarchic circles. since the beginning of his term of office. The magistrate community in the country is becoming increasingly dis- In mid-October, BSP and MRF submitted a request for united, which has a negative impact on the work of the the dismissal of Tsveta Karayancheva, Speaker of the Na- system of justice. A number of associations of lawyers in tional Assembly. The motives for the request were based the country have joined the demand for the removal of on her systematic violation of the Rules of Procedure of Ivan Geshev and said they are ready to take strike action the National Assembly and it being impossible for the and stop appearing in court. National Assembly to exercise effective parliamentary control over the Prime Minister. The accusations of the Another topic that was widely discussed in the public opposition against Karayancheva are that she deflects sphere was the construction of the Turkish Stream or, questions and queries to the departmental ministers, as the government calls it, the Balkan Stream, through instead of directing them to the Prime Minister for an- the territory of Bulgaria. The United States has said it is swers in cases that affect the general policy of the gov- preparing sanctions against the companies that are in- ernment. Another reason for the requested resignation volved in the Turkish Stream, giving them a month to is the new internal regulations of the National Assembly, suspend operations. In October, it became a public fact which restrict the access of journalists to the corridors that Russian subcontractors were behind the Saudi com- of parliament. In the end Tsveta Karayancheva was not pany Arkad. From the annex to the contract between removed from her post - GERB, the United Patriots and Arkad and Bulgartransgaz it became clear that the Saudi Volya voted against the decision. company is now being represented by a Russian citizen. This is something that the government had carefully The majority in the National Assembly set up a tempo- been keeping under wraps. rary parliamentary commission to consider and discuss the draft new Constitution submitted by the ruling party Democratic Bulgaria announced that this is a project and Volya. BSP and MRF refused to participate in it, as that entirely serves Russian interests and our country will both parties have clearly stated that they are against this not gain any profit from transit fees, and this will cost project and will vote against convening a Grand Nation- the budget BGN 3 billion, which de facto will be paid to al Assembly. Although it is clear to the ruling party that Russia. The government claims that this is not a continu- they will not be able to gather the 160 MPs necessary to ation of a Turkish stream, but a Bulgarian project which convene a Grand National Assembly, they are continu- is based on European rules. ing with the procedure, which, according to analysts, is a scheme to win time until the regular parliamentary elec- On the eve of the European Council meeting at the tions in March next year. GERB appealed to experts in beginning of November, at which the decision is to be constitutional law with an invitation to join the work of taken as to whether to start EU membership talks with the commission, but at this stage no one has respond- Albania and the Republic of North Macedonia, relations ed to their call. All authoritative constitutionalists in the between and Skopje are becoming ever more country have described this project as very weak. Pres- strained. The Bulgarian government has threatened ident Radev appealed to the Constitutional Court with to impose a veto against it. In the Macedonian press, a request to declare this parliamentary commission anti-Bulgarian propaganda has intensified in the last unconstitutional since only the Grand National Assem- month. The Macedonian government has stated that it bly can discuss and amend the draft that has already will not back down from the issue of language and the been submitted. The Constitutional Court declared the recognition that the revolutionary Gotse Delchev was a request admissible and indicated that it would issue a Bulgarian. Gotse Delchev (1872-1903) was a national decision by the end of December. hero for both countries, but he was especially import- ant for the Macedonian national ethnicity. Bulgarian In mid-October, Chief Prosecutor Ivan Geshev was heard historians from the joint expert commission, which ex- in the National Assembly, but he did not manage to pro- amines historical issues of common history between the vide convincing answers as to why the investigation was two countries, insist that only historical facts should be delayed with recordings and photos of Prime Minister observed, which categorically show that Gotse Delchev Borisov which raise conjectures of suspicious behaviour identified himself as a Bulgarian in a number of docu- 3 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER

ments and letters. IMRO leader and Minister of Defence continues with chaotic and contradictory measures. For Krassimir Karakachanov said that if Bulgaria backed a long time, the cabinet did not decide on stricter mea- down and compromised, he would leave the govern- sures, because this would increase discontent and lead ment. According to him, the historical facts are clear and to a new wave of protests. Only in late October did the irrefutable. Karakachanov pointed out that Bulgaria is government decide to introduce stricter measures simi- currently under pressure from Europe and, most of all, lar to those in other European countries. from Germany. He said the government could not al- low itself to make concessions and compromises with At the end of October, Prime Minister Borisov also test- Bulgarian history because that would be a national be- ed positive for coronavirus. He announced that he was trayal. Thus, if no compromise is reached, Bulgaria will feeling unwell in general, would be on home treat- most probably impose a veto. Meanwhile, the Macedo- ment, but would be continuing to work. Other minis- nian government has proposed a compromise text as an ters with whom the Prime Minister was in contact were annex to the Bulgarian-Macedonian treaty of friendship, also quarantined. good neighbourliness and co-operation, which would calm passions and restore a good tone between the two The confrontation between the president and the gov- countries. Macedonia will state that it has no territorial ernment continued this month because of Rumen claims on its neighbours. Radev’s visit to Estonia. The President supported the “Three Seas” initiative, which Bulgaria has joined and The government has been severely criticised for the draft which includes 12 countries from the regions of the state budget, which dramatically increases the deficit Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas. The “Three Seas” aims to for next year. The Cabinet shows no let-up in spending strengthen transport and energy connectivity between money for election purposes – an increase of 30% in the states which are members of the initiative. The ini- salaries in state administration, increasing the salaries tiative was created under the auspices of United States of teachers, university lecturers, top-ups to all pensions Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, with the United States of BGN 50 to the end of the term of the government; contributing USD 1 billion to the total fund of the initia- and increasing social payments as child allowances for tive. President Radev went to Estonia and agreed for Bul- all children for next year. Opposition both on the left garia to be the host of the initiative next year. Until now, and the right have described this as pre-election money the government has always shown reservations about spending, the consequences of which will be dealt with the “Three Seas” and Bulgaria’s participation. According by the next government. to some analysts, the reason is fears that Russia will be irritated by dint of this. The Foreign Ministry demanded The draft budget envisages the budget deficit for this that Bulgaria’s presidency at next year’s summit meet- year to reach BGN 5.2 billion, and to be BGN 4.9 billion ing should be postponed, on account of 2021 being or 3.9% of GDP for 2021. Thus, the deficit for the two cri- an election year for the country and that it will not be sis years will rise to BGN 10 billion. The government has able to prepare well for the position of host. On the sec- already taken out a loan of BGN 5 billion, which, howev- ond day of ’s visit to Estonia, his visit was er, will not be enough for the huge amount in expenses suspended due to contact with a person infected with that the cabinet is running up before the election, and coronavirus. The person in question is the commander of a new debt will have to be issued next year. At the end the Air Force of Bulgaria, with whom Radev had contact of 2020, the country’s debt is BGN 28 billion or 23.5% a few days earlier during the celebrations of the Day of of GDP. However, it is expected to reach 28% next year. the Bulgarian Aviation. The president accused the gov- ernment of being behind the failure of his visit. Radev In October, the situation with the coronavirus in the said he had tested negative on arrival in Estonia. A day country grew more complicated, as the number of peo- later, Radev took a second test, which was also negative. ple with positive tests increased, exceeding 2,500 people Borisov denied Radev’s allegations and said he had al- a day at the end of October. However, the government ways supported the “Three Seas” initiative.

4 CONDITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM

2 CONDITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM

The position of GERB is becoming increasingly weak, not ical issues. The party secretaries will be Vyara Emilova only in the country, but also among the EPP. Despite the and Hristo Prodanov. Members of the Executive Bureau support of Manfred Weber and much of the EPP group, are - Asen Gagauzov, Brigo Asparuhov, Borislav Gutsa- critical voices are increasingly being heard about the gov- nov, Boyan Ivanov, Georgi Svilenski, Ivan Ivanov, Katya ernance of Borisov. Proof of this is the 30 MEPs from the Georgieva, Krum Zarkov, Manol Genov, Prof. Radoslav EPP who either abstained from voting or supported the Gaydarski, Stefan Burdzhev, Stoyan Mirchev, Stoyko resolution of European Parliament. At first sight, GERB Tankov and Trifon Panchev. They were elected with 136 seems consolidated, but the broad electoral periphery of votes to zero, with 9 people abstaining. the party is constantly becoming thinner. At this stage, the new party of the former deputy chairman of GERB The BSP National Council elected the chairpersons of the Tsvetan Tsvetanov “Republicans for Bulgaria” boasts less 17 Sector Policy Councils to draft the election programme than 1% of electoral support. However, GERB members of the party. The governing council, which includes all are continuing to jump ship to join Tsvetanov’s party. councils, is headed by party leader Korneliya Ninova. The councils will carry out a review of the implementation of Controversy in BSP remains, despite Ninova’s victory in the strategic documents adopted and conducted in the the direct election of party leader. She is consolidating ministries; they will develop opinions and recommenda- her position, but the dissatisfaction felt by the oppo- tions; their role will deal with the development of alter- sition in the party continues. The six MPs who left the native sectoral policies; they will prepare projects for po- parliamentary group were followed by two more. They litical positions of the party, etc. In the public sphere and stated that their motives were the same as those of their the media, a number of analysts have described these other colleagues - insurmountable differences in values councils as a BSP shadow government. with party politics, leadership and style of work in the parliamentary group. Yanaki Stoilov became head of the Commission for Ideo- logical and Programme Development, and Anna Yaneva Relations have become very strained between Ninova respectively of the Party Activities Committee. Georgi and MEP , who is working most active- Svilenski was elected head of the election headquarters. ly for the rule of law in Bulgaria to become a topic of debate in the European Parliament. Yoncheva accused The United Patriots and in particular IMRO raised the Ninova of making behind-the-scenes deals with Boyko topic of Bulgarian-Macedonian disputes over history Borisov, which led to the government remaining in pow- and language. This is an attempt to consolidate nation- er. According to Yoncheva, the BSP should have left par- alist-oriented voters on the eve of the parliamentary liament and become actively involved in the protests. It elections. IMRO leader and Deputy Prime Minister Kras- reached the point where the BSP organisation in Sliven simir Karakachanov has threatened to leave the govern- withdrew its trust in Yoncheva. All these contradictions ment if there is a compromise and the Republic of North lead to divisions in the party, which could have a nega- Macedonia begins talks with the EU without resolving tive impact on the performance of BSP in the forthcom- disputes over historical issues. ing parliamentary elections. The MRF has resumed its reporting and election confer- The BSP National Council accepted the composition of ences in preparation for the party congress, which has to the new Executive Bureau of the party proposed by Kor- elect a new party leader. This was supposed to happen in neliya Ninova. The following were elected as her dep- April, but due to the coronavirus, the congress was post- uties: MP Kristian Vigenin, who will be responsible for poned. For now, it is scheduled to take place at the end of international affairs; the mayor of Gotse Delchev - Vlad- November or the beginning of December. At this stage, imir Moskov, with the department of “local self-govern- it is unclear whether there will be contenders for the ment”; Irena Anastasova - public policies; MP Atanas post currently held by Mustafa Karadayi. Information has Zafirov - coalition policy; and Yanaki Stoilov - ideolog- come to light that rivals of the current chairman will be 5 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – POLIT-BAROMETER

MEP and youth organisation leader Ilhan Kyuchuk and again, Trifonov does not participate actively in the polit- former MEP Filiz Hyusmenova. MRF MP Halil Letifov stat- ical debate, and it remains unclear what the party’s po- ed Mustafa Karadayi would be re-elected MRF chairman. litical program will be and what expert team it will rely on. The main mouthpiece of the party is Slavi Trifonov’s Democratic Bulgaria consolidated and expanded its in- television channel – “7/8” and the eponymous evening fluence, and the party remains with an electoral share of show, which has become the main opposition tribune of about 6% of all voters. The formation continues to be an “There is such a people”. active participant in the protests, demanding a serious reform of the prosecution. The leader of Yes, Bulgaria The civil platform of former ombudsman Maya Manolo- rejected the possibility of a coalition with GERB and ex- va “Stand Up.BG” this month maintains its chances of en- pressed the opinion that the next government should be tering the next parliament. Manolova said she would not formed with a clear mandate for judicial reform and the form a political party, as “Stand up.BG” would be a civil abolition of the oligarchic-mafia model of government. union that would unite several parties - Social Democrats, Bulgaria of the Citizens, the European Party “VOLT” and The party of the showman Slavi Trifonov “There is such a “Movement 21” of Tatiana Doncheva. Manolova stated people” continues to be the third political force accord- that she would count on a broad civil union, such as the ing to the most recent sociological surveys. In this month, one formed in her campaign for mayor of Sofia last year.

6 PUBLIC OPINION

3 PUBLIC OPINION

A survey by Gallup conducted between October 1 and 1%, which shows that the chances of it surpassing the 9 shows current electoral attitudes. BSP has a slight lead electoral barrier are extremely low. over GERB. 13.5% of all voters would vote for the Social- ists and 13% for GERB. These results show a contraction The Gallup poll shows that confidence in the election in both major parties. BSP is ahead of GERB not because process is very low - 19.2% expect the imminent elec- support for it is growing, but because the ruling party is tions to be fair, whilst 52.6% do not. Negative attitudes experiencing a significant electoral ebb of support. Slavi towards the election process are intensifying as a result Trifonov’s party “There is such a people” continues to be of the frequent changes in the way of voting, related third with 8.6%. This is followed by MRF with 6.9% and both to the hesitations of the ruling party about the Democratic Bulgaria with 6%. “Stand up.BG” of former introduction of machine voting and to the resignation ombudsman Maya Manolova with 2.5% and United Pa- of the head of the Central Election Commission. Doubts triots with 2.3% also still have a chance of getting into about GERB in a large part of the society regarding ma- the next parliament. Thus, 7 parties have the possibility nipulating the elections and buying votes have existed of entering parliament. 1.8% of the voters would vote in all previous elections. This has led to voter withdrawal for Volya, and Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s new party is below in recent years and reduced voter turnout.

7 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – THE PARTY SYSTEM IN BULGARIA 2009-2019

4 MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS

The situation with the pandemic in the country is deep- parties, despite their ideological differences, is the re- ening. The government continues with chaotic and in- form of the prosecution service and the start of a reso- consistent measures, which has been met negative reac- lute battle against corruption. tions from citizens. The organisers of the protests from the “Poisonous Trio”, The economic crisis in the country is exacerbating, which the party of Slavi Trifonov and “Stand up.BG” united to could lead to a new wave of social protests in the winter. build a common network of observers, which would be The cabinet is carrying out uncontrolled spending from a guarantor for fair elections in the country. Democratic the state budget, and the impression that remains is that Bulgaria declared that they are for a parallel count of this is being done for election purposes. the votes.

There are growing indications that in the forthcoming The conflicts in the BSP have not let up and this could elections, all the major parties will base their campaign have a negative impact on the party in the forthcoming on anti-GERB rhetoric. This leads to the potential situa- elections. Nevertheless, the socialists are in favour of di- tion of creating a broader coalition of parties after the alogue with the other opposition parties to form a coa- elections to run the country. That which can unite these lition on a broader basis to demote GERB to opposition.

8 ABOUT THE AUTHOR IMPRINT

Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Karasimeonov is Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Office Bulgaria a lecturer at Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Direc- 97, Knjaz Boris I St. | 1000 Sofia | Bulgaria tor of the Institute for Political and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Responsible: Science Association. Helene Kortländer | Director, FES Bulgaria [email protected] Tel.: +359 2 980 8747 | Fax: +359 2 980 2438 http://www.fes-bulgaria.org

Contact: [email protected]

Commercial use of all media, published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), is not permitted without the written consent of the FES.

ABOUT THIS STUDY

FES Bulgaria has been publishing the „Polit-Barometer“ since the quality and neutrality of Bulgarian media is under ques- 2000, analyzing current and long-term political processes and tion, we aim to provide a scientific basis for a political discus- identifying trends in Bulgarian politics with a special focus on sion for Bulgarian and international readers. the political parties as democratic actors. In a situation where http://www.fes-bulgaria.org

The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works. POLIT-BAROMETER Year 20 Issue 8 October 2020

There are ever-increasing indications The organisers of the protests from The conflicts in BSP are not letting up that in the forthcoming elections, all the “Poisonous Trio”, the party of Sla- and this may lead to a negative im- the major parties will base their vi Trifonov and “Stand up. BG” united pact on the party in the forthcoming campaigns on anti-GERB rhetoric. in order to form a common network elections. However, the Socialists are This opens up the prospect of creat- of observers, which would be a guar- in favour of dialogue with other op- ing a broader coalition of parties af- antor for fair elections in the country. position parties to form a coalition on ter the elections, which would run a broader basis which would demote the country. GERB to opposition.

Further information on the topic can be found here: http://www.fes-bulgaria.org