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Bulgaria Political Briefing: What Are the Political Expectations for Bulgaria After the Early Parliamentary Elections on July 11? Evgeniy Kandilarov

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Bulgaria Political Briefing: What Are the Political Expectations for Bulgaria After the Early Parliamentary Elections on July 11? Evgeniy Kandilarov ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 42, No. 1 (BG) July 2021 Bulgaria political briefing: What are the Political Expectations for Bulgaria after the early Parliamentary Elections on July 11? Evgeniy Kandilarov 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 What are the Political Expectations for Bulgaria after the early Parliamentary Elections on July 11? Summary Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on July 11th. They came after the results of the regular elections on April 4th failed to lead to the formation of a government, and according to the Constitution, parliament was dissolved and new elections scheduled. The results of the July 11 elections are quite similar to those of April 4. The only difference is that this time the newly formed party of the popular TV presenter, showman and popular singer Slavi Trifonov become first. The name of this political force is "There is such a people." Unfortunately, again the distribution of the number of seats between the six parties that enter the parliament is such that the prospects for forming a stable government are very small, which could lead to a deepening political crisis. Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on July 11th, just three months after the previous vote in April. The electoral outcome in April led to a situation in which none of the parties in the parliament could gather enough support to form a government. Therefore, according to the country's Constitution, the National Assembly was dissolved and the President appointed a caretaker government and scheduled new parliamentary elections for July 11th. The final results from Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary elections released on July 13 confirm that the anti-elite party called „There Is Such People“ won ahead of the former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's GERB-led coalition. According to Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission (CEC), with 100 percent of the ballots counted, TV entertainer Slavi Trifonov's party finished first with 24.08 percent and GERB - second with 23.51%. Four other parties gained enough votes to enter parliament. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) was on the third place with 13.39 percent, while liberal grouping Democratic Bulgaria was forth with 12.64 percent. The mostly ethnic Turkish-backed Movement for Rights and Freedoms finished on the fifth place with 10.71 percent, while “Stand Up! Mafia Out!” - a new, center-left alliance launched By former ombudsman Maya Manolova - was on the sixth place with 5.01 percent in the final count. At the same time 35,201 voters in the country and abroad voted with "I do not support anyone". These votes are valid but do not affect the distribution of seats. 1 The Bulgarian Patriots Coalition – IMRO - Bulgarian National Movement, Volia and National front for Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB) received 3.14 per cent of the ballots. This way these parties cannot be presented in the Parliament since according to the law they don’t reach 4%. The 4% barrier to entering parliament is about 109,266.08 votes. The results show that this time elections marked the lowest turnout in a decade. Only 42.19% of voters visited polling stations on 11 July. This is 2,775,410 people out of a total of 6,578,716 people on the voter lists. It is still too early to analyze why this happened. However, political speculation is growing - the former GERB rulers claim that the introduction of almost universal machine voting, as well as the police actions of the caretaker government against the vote trade, have frightened the voters. However, there is no evidence for either claim. The biggest change as an outcome from the July 11th elections is that for the first time, GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) - the right-wing political force of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is losing the elections and is definitely going out of power. Borissov’s party has been in power for most of the past decade, but he has been struggling to maintain support since he lost his position as prime minister after April’s inconclusive ballot. During the years Borisov has managed to establish himself as a close ally of Western leaders in Brussels and position himself as a reliable partner in the European People’s Party — the same broad political family to which the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also belong. The party that won the election - "There is such people" led by popular television host and entertainer Slavi Trifonov, is expected to bring an end to the decade-long dominance of Borissov in Bulgarian politics. The former singer is expected to seek the support of the two small anti-corruption parties, “Democratic Bulgaria” and “Rise Up, Mafia Out” which gained power during the massive wave of anti-government protests last year. However, such an alliance would not constitute a majority in parliament, together collecting less than 42 percent of the vote. According to the results announced by the Central Election Comission, the party "There is such a people" will have 65 out of 240 deputies in the parliament, and "GERB - UDF" - 63. The BSP parliamentary group will consist of 36 MPs, and the Democratic Bulgaria group - of 34. The Movement for Rights and Freedom will have 29 deputies, and "Stand up! Mafia out!" - 13. These results clearly show that this time, again the formation of a stable government can only take place through the formation of some kind of coalition between the parties represented in parliament. The problem, however, is that even during the campaign, and immediately afterwards, many of these parties set firm dividing lines, declaring that they would not form a 2 coalition with all the other parties or some of them. For example, “There is such people” clearly stated that they will not form a coalition with GERB, MRF and BSP. This means that Trifonov will likely try to form a minority government which will make this government very unstable and its duration will be quite uncertain. In an address shown live on Facebook and his cable television channel on July 12, Trifonov said that his party would not form coalitions, but would “take political responsibility” to propose its own government to Parliament. Trifonov described his nominees as experts in their fields, with concrete priorities with the shortest possible deadline to implement them. Some of the nominees have served in previous caretaker governments. Slavi Trifonov also announced his nomination for future Prime Minister of Bulgaria. His name is Nikolay Vassilev - a veteran of two previous governments. Vasilev was deputy prime minister in the Simeon Saxe-Coburg government from 2001 to 2005 and again in the tripartite coalition government of Saxe-Coburg’s party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms that was in office from 2005 to 2009. From 2001 to 2003, Vassilev was also economy minister, from 2003 to 2005, minister of transport and communications, and from 2005 to 2009 was minister of state administration and administrative reform. Apart from the public offices that he has held, Vassilev has a background in the private sector. Among the priorities that Trifonov listed for his proposed government are: - Construction of the required number of kindergartens to accommodate all children from Sofia and other cities in the country; - Construction of a brand-new children’s hospital; - Purchase of medical rescue helicopters. - Putting motorways, such as Hemus, as concession, with the concession-holder required to build or complete them. - The purchase of up to a million tablets or laptops for all pupils and teachers and the provision of the necessary software for the education system. - The privatisation of state-owned Bulgarian Development Bank, with 51 per cent for a strategic investor and 49 per cent through the Bulgarian Stock Exchange. - A sharp improvement of transparency in public procurement. - Eradication of the vicious practice of spending billions of leva from state structures without competitive procedures, eradication of the vicious practice of paying billions in advance to contractors, eradication of the vicious practice of presenting a number of repairs as “emergency” in order to circumvent the Public Procurement Act. - Rapid redundancies in the state administration and digitalisation of services. 3 - Changing Bulgaria’s electoral system to introduce a majoritarian vote, electronic voting and reducing state subsidies for parties to one lev per valid vote. - Abolishing the Special Court and the Specialised Prosecutor’s Office. - Accelerated construction and commissioning of the gas interconnector with Greece - Confirmation of the application for membership of Bulgaria of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the euro zone and the Schengen visa zone. - Submission of an application for Bulgaria’s to join the the European Space Agency. Trifonov said that the government would do everything possible for a man and a woman to become Bulgaria’s first astronauts via Nasa. (Via the Soviet Union, Bulgaria had two cosmonauts). “We will do everything possible for a North Macedonian astronaut to join them,” he said. However, whether this draft cabinet and priority policies will receive the necessary support is becoming increasingly problematic, as the initial reactions of all other parties represented in parliament are rather negative and highly critical. In conclusion Bulgaria’s political deadlock is likely to continue after no clear winner emerged from July 11th national election - the country’s second in three months. As a result, in the coming weeks and months, a protracted political crisis will likely materialize, whose outcome is hard to predict.
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