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New Development Market Insights New Development Market Insights San Francisco Q2 2019 COMPASS DEVELOPMENT 1699 VAN NESS AVENUE SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94109 — P: 415.615.6815 — COMPASS.COM/DEVELOPMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Compass Development and The Mark Company’s research teams have joined forces to create this New Development Market Insights report, an in-depth review of San Francisco’s core downtown neighborhoods. Published quarterly and highlighting the city’s vast condo market, we pull information from a combination of public and proprietary databases which access the most up-to-date closing information for new development properties as well as resales. The quarterly Market Watch, beginning on Page 3, highlights overall market trends in District 6, 7 , 8, and 9, which collectively encompass the majority of new development projects in the city. We subsequently break down each of these districts individually to paint a more granular picture of each submarket. On Page 9, we begin a citywide exploration of each currently-selling new development project, including the most recent closings at each, followed by a brief overview of upcoming projects which are under construction or have yet to break ground. For any inquiries regarding our research, please reach out to [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS Quarterly San Francisco Market Watch .............................................Page 3 San Francisco Districts 6-9 .................................................. Page 3 San Francisco District 6 .....................................................Page 4 San Francisco District 7 .....................................................Page 5 San Francisco District 8..................................................... Page 6 San Francisco District 9 .....................................................Page 7 New Construction Project Overviews ...............................................Page 8 New Development Pipeline .......................................................Page 24 New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q2 2019 2 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q2 2019 Q2 is typically the strongest quarter each year for the San Francisco Map of Coverage: SF Districts 6-9 condominium market, and Q2-19 held true to form, with an 85% increase in sale volume from Q1-19. There were 713 closings recorded during the quarter, at an average price of $1.4M and an average $/SF valuation of $1,235. All of these figures were down YoY from Q2-18, a standout quarter in which the ultra-luxury 181 Fremont and 288 Pacific projects reported batches of closings over $2,000/SF. Q2-19 represents a significant recovery from the market’s pause in the winter and early spring, as an influx of IPO money coupled with favorable interest rates and a bullish stock market to spur buyers back into action. Market Performance, Districts 6-9 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 # of Sales Condos in Districts 6-9 Blended Avg. PPSF 1,000 $1,400 Avg. Sales Price $1,389,930 -6.5% $1,485,764 0.9% $1,377,461 900 $1,300 Blended Avg. PPSF $1,235 -5.5% $1,306 7.0% $1,154 800 $1,200 Number of Sales 713 -21.1% 904 85.2% 385 700 $1,100 DOM 36 N/A 87 N/A 38 600 $1,000 ANNUAL 2018 YoY% 2017 YoY% 2016 PERFORMANCE 500 $900 Avg. Sales Price $1,420,562 2.6% $1,384,097 1.7% $1,361,378 400 $800 Avg. PPSF $1,252 6.6% $1,174 -0.5% $1,180 300 $700 Number of Sales 2,685 6.5% 2,521 -13.3% 2,907 200 $600 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 DOM 53 N/A 42 N/A 43 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales by Price Point, Districts 6-9 Under $1M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 $2M-$3M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 Avg. Sales Price $790,248 -3.5% $818,909 -0.1% $791,029 Avg. Sales Price $2,341,343 -0.7% $2,358,019 -2.8% $2,409,251 Avg. PPSF $1,136 0.7% $1,128 14.4% $993 Avg. PPSF $1,343 -2.5% $1,378 -2.4% $1,377 Number of Sales 228 -21.1% 289 56.2% 146 Number of Sales 78 1.3% 77 77.3% 44 DOM 33 N/A 159 N/A 15 DOM 29 N/A 27 N/A 13 $1M-$2M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 $3M+ Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 Avg. Sales Price $1,376,148 -2.2% $1,406,731 1.2% $1,359,560 Avg. Sales Price $4,101,200 -16.4% $4,907,367 -8.5% $4,481,786 Avg. PPSF $1,166 -2.4% $1,195 7.3% $1,087 Avg. PPSF $1,762 -17.8% $2,144 12.7% $1,564 Number of Sales 382 -21.2% 485 111.0% 181 Number of Sales 25 -49.0% 49 78.6% 14 DOM 25 N/A 21 N/A 16 DOM 66 N/A 24 N/A 20 Note: Data includes new construction and resale New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q2 2019 3 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q2 2019 District 6, which encompasses Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista, SF District 6 - Condos Western Addition, North Panhandle, Alamo Square, and Hayes Valley, had 82 condo closings in Q2-2019 (-10.0% YoY) at an average sales Q2 2019 price of $1.3M (flat YoY). Valuations increased to $1,078 PSF in District 6, up 2% YoY. The quarterly $1.3M -0.5% average valuation in this area depends largely on its busiest subdistrict. Avg. Sale Price from Q2 2018 Closings in Hayes Valley, in which most of the district’s amenitized developments are located, averaged $1,214/SF. All other parts of $1,078/SF +2.0% District 6, which feature primarily low-rise buildings with a significant On 82 Sales from Q2 2018 proportion of less valuable tenancies-in-common (TICs), averaged $1,035 PSF. 82 -9.9% # Sales in Q2 2019 from Q2 2018 Market Performance, District 6 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 # of Sales Condos in District 6 Blended Avg. PPSF 200 $1,200 Avg. Sales Price $1,277,000 -0.5% $1,283,079 9.0% $1,171,765 175 $1,100 Avg. PPSF $1,078 2.0% $1,056 11.0% $971 150 $1,000 Number of Sales 82 -9.9% 91 105.0% 40 125 $900 DOM 25 N/A 34 N/A 42 100 $800 ANNUAL 2018 YoY% 2017 YoY% 2016 PERFORMANCE 75 $700 Avg. Sales Price $1,267,446 3.1% $1,228,867 13.2% $1,085,353 50 $600 Avg. PPSF $1,092 7.8% $1,013 -5.2% $1,069 25 $500 Number of Sales 325 1.2% 321 -24.1% 423 0 $400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 DOM 34 N/A 36 N/A 38 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales by Price Point, District 6 Under $1M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 $2M-$3M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 Avg. Sales Price $745,920 2.3% $729,418 -0.6% $750,794 Avg. Sales Price $2,250,000 -3.3% $2,325,875 -11.8% $2,550,000 Avg. PPSF $1,015 0.2% $1,013 19.1% $852 Avg. PPSF $1,194 0.9% $1,184 -3.5% $1,237 Number of Sales 25 -16.7% 30 47.1% 17 Number of Sales 6 -25.0% 8 500.0% 1 DOM 37 N/A 32 N/A 26 DOM 12 N/A 12 N/A 0 $1M-$2M Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 $3M+ Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 Avg. Sales Price $1,422,863 -1.9% $1,451,136 -0.8% $1,434,413 Avg. Sales Price - N/A $3,300,000 N/A - Avg. PPSF $1,072 0.2% $1,070 6.1% $1,010 Avg. PPSF - N/A $1,162 N/A - Number of Sales 51 4.1% 49 131.8% 22 Number of Sales 0 N/A 1 N/A 0 DOM 17 N/A 28 N/A 22 DOM - N/A 14 N/A - Note: Data includes new construction and resale New Development Market Insights - San Francisco - Q2 2019 4 SF MARKET WATCH/ Q2 2019 District 7, which encompasses the Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights, SF District 7 - Condos and Presidio Heights, had 88 closings in Q2-19, down 9.3% YoY and up 38% QoQ. Valuations are up 11.7% YoY to an average sales price of just Q2 2019 under $2.0M, the highest quarterly average since Q4-17. The most expensive area in San Francisco’s core in terms of per-square- $2M +11.7% foot valuations, District 7 averaged $1,325/SF this quarter (-2.1% YoY). Avg. Sale Price from Q2 2018 Favorable market conditions boosted the luxury resale segment in the area. There were 39 closings for more than $2M in Q2-19, compared to $1,325/SF -2.1% 21 last quarter and 26 in Q2-18. On 88 Sales from Q2 2018 88 -9.3% # Sales in Q2 2019 from Q2 2018 Market Performance, District 7 San Francisco Market Performance CONDO Q2-19 YoY% Q2-18 QoQ% Q1-19 # of Sales Condos in District 7 Blended Avg. PPSF 175 $1,500 Avg. Sales Price $1,977,538 11.7% $1,770,651 13.5% $1,741,854 150 $1,400 Avg. PPSF $1,325 -2.1% $1,354 8.0% $1,227 125 $1,300 Number of Sales 88 -9.3% 97 37.5% 64 100 $1,200 DOM 45 N/A 20 N/A 31 ANNUAL 2018 YoY% 2017 YoY% 2016 75 $1,100 PERFORMANCE Avg.
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