11. Energy Targets

Home , Electricity, Energy mix, Primary energy

General overview

• Definition • Basic requirements for clear targets • Target definition: Capacity vs Generation vs TFEC • Energy targets (Energy balance). • Internationally agreed targets and indicators (SDG7)

2 Renewable Energy Targets

Definition • “Numerical goals established by governments to achieve a specific amount of renewable energy production or consumption. They can apply to the electricity, heating/cooling or transport sectors, or to the energy sector as a whole. They often include a specific time period or date by which the target is to be reached”.

Source: IRENA (2015), Renewable Energy Target Setting. Basic requirements for clear targets

✓ Definition: Fixed amount or percentage ✓ Over: Electricity -Capacity, generation, Energy balance: TFEC, TPES ✓ End use: Power, transport, heating and cooling, among others. ✓ Technology: Neutral or specific ✓ Baseline year and amount: (Same units as target) ✓ Target year ✓ Binding character

4 Share (%) or Fixed amount (GW, • Can be defined as a share: e.g GWh) Saint Lucia’s 2016 NETS established a target of 35% renewable electricity consumption by 2020 • Can be defined as a capacity Total primary energy supply (TPES) value: e.g The Framework for vs. Total final energy consumption the Development of a (TFEC) Renewable Energy Policy for Trinidad and Tobago sets a target of 60 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2020 Global TFEC by sectors

It is important to acknowledge the relevance of each sector at national level, when formulating targets.

Source: REN21 Global Status Report 2018, Based on IEA, World Energy Balances and Statistics

6 Targets according to the binding character

Source: IRENA (2015), Renewable Energy Target Setting. 7 Target definition: Capacity vs Generation vs TFEC

Capacity vs Generation vs TFEC

2016 RE shares (global):

• 30.7% capacity • 23.7% generation • 17.5% TFEC.

8 Capacity factor • Capacity and generation are two different measures, the capacity factor CP relates them as follows:

퐴푐푡푢푎푙 𝑔푒푛푒푟푎푡𝑖표푛 (퐺푊ℎ) 퐶푃 = 퐶푎푝푎푐𝑖푡푦 퐺푊 ∗ 8760

• Reference: 1 Year =8760 hours • Actual electricity generation vs maximum electricity generation. 9 Global capacity factors

Global Capacity Factors Technology 2011 2014 2017 Geothermal 78.96% 78.97% 77.28% Nuclear 76.20% 75.50% 75.10% Biogas 53.77% 61.22% 58.29% Solid biofuels 54.26% 55.71% 50.18% Fossil fuels 49.20% 47.00% 45.70% Renewable hydropower 41.88% 41.85% 39.94% Wind 22.44% 23.28% 25.16% Liquid biofuels 21.88% 30.02% 21.01% Solar photovoltaic 9.89% 12.24% 12.68%

10 Energy targets (energy balance)

• Share of renewables calculated from TFEC row • Energy intensity from TPES row and GDP • Renewable share should include electricity (if applicable)

ORIGINAL ENERGY BALANCE Energy Balance Oil Wood fuel Solar PV Wind Electricity Total Electricity (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (MWh) Production 1,210 1,210 Imports 1,000 1,000 Exports Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) 1,000 1,210 2,210 Electricity plants -550 180 -370 50,000 Own use -5 -5 1,400 Distribution losses -13 -13 3,600 Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) 450 1,210 162 1,822 45,000 Industry 50 400 54 504 15,000 Transport 300 300 Commercial and public 200 54 254 15,000 Residential 100 600 54 754 15,000 Other 10 10 Note: all figures are positive unless the minus sign is shown

RE share of TFEC = 1,210/1,822 = 66% Primary energy intensity = 2,210/500 = 4.42 MJ/USD (Assume GDP = USD 500 million) 11 Energy targets: generation example

• 5MW of PV: renewable share increases due to addition of RE electricity consumption (based on its share of generation) • TPES (efficiency) also changes, from switch to renewables ENERGY BALANCE WITH 5MW SOLAR PV Energy Balance (Generating 7,000 MWh/year) Oil Wood fuel Solar PV Wind Electricity Total Electricity (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (TJ) (MWh) Production 1,210 25 1,235 Imports 923 923 Exports Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) 923 1,210 25 2,158 Electricity plants (fossil) -473 155 -318 43,000 Electricity plants (renewable) -25 25 0 7,000 Own use -5 -5 1,400 Distribution losses -13 -13 3,600 Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) 450 1,210 162 1,822 45,000 Industry 50 400 54 504 15,000 Transport 300 300 Commercial and public 200 54 254 15,000 Residential 100 600 54 754 15,000 Other 10 10 Note: all figures are positive unless the minus sign is shown

RE share of TFEC = (1,210+(25/180*162))/1,822 = 68% Primary energy intensity = 2,158/500 = 4.32 MJ/USD 12 (Assume GDP = USD 500 million) Interlinkages between datasets

Energy statistics are at the centre of analysis of targets, NDCs, other development goals and investment plans

NDCs Energy policies and targets Finance

GHG Emissions Electricity Electricity Capital Investment CUF emissions factors generation capacity cost data needs

ENERGY STATISTICS

Other benefits: Other benefits: - Energy security - Local income - Import substitution - Local employment - Electricity access - Electricity quality Which comes first: the targets - Economic development - Environmental impacts or the list of projects? Internationally agreed targets and indicators (SDG7)

Target 7.1: Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services. Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. Target 7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. Target 7.a: Enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy. (IRENA/OECD) Target 7.b: Expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all in developing countries.

14 SDG indicators

• Access indicators: ▪ 7.1.1: Percentage of population with access to electricity. ▪ 7.1.2: Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology. (Fuel used for cooking and/or heating) • Renewable Energy indicator: ▪ 7.2.1: Renewable energy share of total final energy consumption. (RE Final Energy Consumption divided by TFEC) • Efficiency indicator: ▪ 7.3.1: Energy intensity measured in terms of total energy supply and GDP. (Total Primary Energy Supply [TPES] per million USD of GDP measured at Purchasing Power Parity [PPP]) ▪ 7.A.1: International financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy research and development and renewable energy production, including in hybrid systems. 15 16 17 Questions? Thank you!