UNILATERAL DECISIONS BILATERAL LOSSES Since February 2019, India-Pakistan relations have been sliding downhill. Escalating tensions between India and German Statesman Otto Von Bismark once remarked "the road to Berlin lies through Vienna." BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF I sincerely feel that the road between New Delhi and Islamabad lies through Punjab. For Punjabis, a Pakistan led their governments lot is at stake given their proximity to the shared border. Trade at Wagah-Attari had made this shared to take successive unilateral border a point of cooperation and interdependence. Highlighting the losses on ground because of decisions - impact trickling the suspension of trade, this book makes it evident how over time, trade has become crucial for the down to the trade communities survival of the border economies, revival of which could lead not just to prosperity but also lay the in both the countries. foundation for peaceful relations between India and Pakistan. International trade as a subject, Manpreet Singh Badal, Finance Minister, Punjab, India for policy making as well as research, is generally focused on, from a macro level. This book is an attempt to understand trade at a micro level in terms of the dependence of border India-Pakistan relations are said to be “accident prone”, and subject to sudden and unexpected swings economies on cross-border towards renewed engagement or reinforced estrangement. This study by Afaq and Nikita has drawn trade. This has been done by attention to some of the micro level impact of broader policy decisions, in this instance focussing on UNILATERAL DECISIONS assessing the socio-economic trade related restrictions imposed in February 2019. While the larger decisions have their own logic, the impact of trade suspension, local level impact on people and business certainly needs attention for mitigation, if people are to be through field research in Punjab, enthused to get involved again if and when the upswing phase returns. BILATERAL LOSSES and Jammu and Kashmir. As the Arun K Singh, Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, France and Israel trade communities, and the Afaq Hussain Nikita Singla citizens at large, stand by the decisions of the government, it is crucial to identify adequate measures that could be taken towards sustaining the people Having served in Jammu and Kashmir for decades, I have witnessed from the closest possible realm and the border economies, in how interwined politics and economics are for border economies. While this book focuses on two most the absence of cross-border politically fractious neighbors, I compliment the authors for successfully restricting their research on the

Afaq Hussain trade. socio-economic ripples created in the border economies due to suspension of trade. The findings of the research make a compelling argument to start looking at trade from the lens of livelihoods. Mohammed Saqib Lt. Gen Satish Dua, a former Corps Commander in Kashmir, who retired as Chief of Integrated Defence Staff CEO, BRIEF Nikita Singla

BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF) www.briefindia.com January 2020 UNILATERAL DECISIONS BILATERAL LOSSES Since February 2019, India-Pakistan relations have been sliding downhill. Escalating tensions between India and German Statesman Otto Von Bismark once remarked "the road to Berlin lies through Vienna." BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF I sincerely feel that the road between New Delhi and Islamabad lies through Punjab. For Punjabis, a Pakistan led their governments lot is at stake given their proximity to the shared border. Trade at Wagah-Attari had made this shared to take successive unilateral border a point of cooperation and interdependence. Highlighting the losses on ground because of decisions - impact trickling the suspension of trade, this book makes it evident how over time, trade has become crucial for the down to the trade communities survival of the border economies, revival of which could lead not just to prosperity but also lay the in both the countries. UNILATERAL DECISIONS BILATERAL LOSSES foundation for peaceful relations between India and Pakistan. International trade as a subject, Assessing the impact of the face-off between India and Pakistan Manpreet Singh Badal, Finance Minister, Punjab, India for policy making as well as research, is generally focused on, in 2019, on border economies from a macro level. This book is an attempt to understand trade at a micro level in terms of the Afaq Hussain & Nikita Singla dependence of border India-Pakistan relations are said to be “accident prone”, and subject to sudden and unexpected swings economies on cross-border towards renewed engagement or reinforced estrangement. This study by Afaq and Nikita has drawn trade. This has been done by attention to some of the micro level impact of broader policy decisions, in this instance focussing on UNILATERAL DECISIONS assessing the socio-economic trade related restrictions imposed in February 2019. While the larger decisions have their own logic, the impact of trade suspension, local level impact on people and business certainly needs attention for mitigation, if people are to be through field research in Punjab, enthused to get involved again if and when the upswing phase returns. BILATERAL LOSSES and Jammu and Kashmir. As the Arun K Singh, Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, France and Israel trade communities, and the Afaq Hussain Nikita Singla citizens at large, stand by the decisions of the government, it is crucial to identify adequate measures that could be taken towards sustaining the people Having served in Jammu and Kashmir for decades, I have witnessed from the closest possible realm and the border economies, in how interwined politics and economics are for border economies. While this book focuses on two most the absence of cross-border politically fractious neighbors, I compliment the authors for successfully restricting their research on the

Afaq Hussain trade. socio-economic ripples created in the border economies due to suspension of trade. The findings of the research make a compelling argument to start looking at trade from the lens of livelihoods. Mohammed Saqib Lt. Gen Satish Dua, a former Corps Commander in Kashmir, who retired as Chief of Integrated Defence Staff CEO, BRIEF Nikita Singla

BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF) www.briefindia.com It all goes downhill: India-Pakistan 9 Acknowledgements 18-69 Fallout Post February 2019 Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 19

Effects and the Affected 23

Case I: Dry date – the poor man’s dry fruit, gets dearer 30

Case II: Cement and Gypsum – drying Pakistani 38 supplies pushing India for ‘survival or revival’ About BRIEF’s ‘Partnering Case III: Rock Salt – the pink gold of Pakistan, 44 for Prosperity’ Program 11 with no substitutes in India and the Authors Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 51 A Decade of Cross-LoC Trade 56 Breaking Bridges and Losing Livelihoods at LoC 57 From Line of Control back to Line of Commerce 60 CONTENTS

At a Glance - Unilateral Decisions Decision III: Airspace Closure 63 13 and Bilateral Losses Rising Turbulence: Impact on airlines and people 66

Surviving the unilateral decisions 70 and bilateral losses The Story of India-Pakistan 15 Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics Annexures 75-107 Annexure A. Media Series on Trade 76

Annexure B. Snakes and Ladders of India-Pakistan Relations 78

Annexure C. Brainstorming with Stakeholders 83

Annexure D. India-Pakistan Trade (Month-on-Month 84 Comparison between 2018 and 2019)

Annexure E. Volumes Speak: LoC Trade 92

Annexure F. Struggling to Survive: Individuals 96 and Families in Amritsar Abbreviation Details

ATS Air Traffic Service B2B Business-to-Business CBM Confidence Building Measure CHA Custom House Agent CWC Central Warehousing Corporation DRI Directorate of Revenue Intelligence EMI Equated Monthly Instalment EMS Express Mail Service GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GST Goods and Service Tax HS Code Harmonized System Code ICP Integrated Check Post IGST Integrated Goods and Service Tax IICCI Indian Importers Chambers of Commerce and Industry INR Indian Rupee J&K Jammu and Kashmir JKJCCI Jammu and Kashmir Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry JNPT Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust JWG Joint Working Group LoC Line of Control LWB Lorry Weighbridge MFN Most Favoured Nation MT Metric Tonnes NOTAM Notice to Airmen PITEX Punjab International Trade Exposition PKR Pakistani Rupee SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SOP Standard Operating Procedure TATA Trade and Travel Authority TDAP Trade Development Authority of Pakistan TFC Trade Facilitation Center TFO Trade Facilitation Officer UAE United Arab Emirates UPU Universal Postal Union US/USA United States of America USD United States Dollar WTO World Trade Organisation

Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 7 Acknowledgements

Post-February 2019, amid a deterioration in India-Pakistan relations, we traveled to Amritsar in the Indian state of Punjab, 28 kilometers from the border with Pakistan. The visit was aimed at gathering an on-the-ground understanding of how local stakeholders were affected by India’s withdrawal of the status of Most Favored Nation granted to Pakistan, and hike in customs duties. Seeing their plight, we felt the need to document the socio-economic impact of the latest India-Pakistan face- off, so that adequate measures could be taken towards ensuring the survival of people and border economies. Most of our on-the-ground research has been conducted in India – Amritsar, Delhi, Mumbai, and Jammu and Kashmir, along with some telephonic interviews with traders in Pakistan.

We express our sincere gratitude to Pardeep Sehgal and Rajdeep Uppal – senior representatives of the trade community in Amritsar for supporting us ever since we conceived of writing this book, and proactively connecting us with all relevant stakeholders. We thank all the stakeholders—custom house agents; traders; Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC) at the Integrated Check Post (ICP) in Attari, a border village of Indian Punjab; and the Attari truck union, among others—for sharing with us their insights and data. In addition, we thank the traders and trade facilitation centres in the districts of Baramulla and Poonch in Jammu and Kashmir region for their cooperation. We also thank traders in Pakistan for sharing their insights and stories with us.

We express our sincere thanks to Manpreet Singh Badal (Finance Minister, Punjab, India), Arun K Singh (former Indian Ambassador to the United States, France and Israel), and Lt. Gen Satish Dua (a former Corps Commander in Kashmir, who retired as Chief of Integrated Defence Staff) for sharing their thoughts on the book.

We are very thankful to Mohammed Saqib (CEO, BRIEF) for his overall guidance while writing this book; and Samit Chakraborty, Priya Arora, Drishti Bansal and Aakanksha Nehra of the BRIEF team for supporting us throughout this research.

Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 9 About BRIEF’s ‘Partnering for Prosperity’ Program and the Authors

Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF) is a New Delhi based research and policy think tank with a focus on international trade and regional cooperation in South Asia. Over the last few years, in order to strengthen the dialogue on economic engagement between India and Pakistan, we have initiated parallel programs focusing on multiple strands of economic cooperation between India and Pakistan including both mainstream bilateral trade and cross-Line of Control trade, and other Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) between the two countries. As a part of these programs, the main focus of our work is building research repository, creating positive constituencies, engaging and interacting with key stakeholders at multiple levels, and developing cross-border linkages – that help shape a positive narrative about India and Pakistan, nationally, bilaterally, as well as at a regional level in South Asia.

This book - which is a micro level analysis of the impact the face-off between India and Pakistan in 2019 has had on their border economies – is an outcome of one of our ongoing programs “Partnering for Prosperity: through enabling trade and connecting communities between India and Pakistan”, which seeks to generate momentum for an overall (re)engagement process by not just providing impetus to trade but bridging the trust deficit.

Afaq Hussain, Director, BRIEF Afaq has over fifteen years of experience working on International Trade and Logistics, and Regional Cooperation in South Asia, with a special focus on India and Pakistan. Most of his work has been on trade, non-tariff barriers, trade facilitation reforms and informal trade in South Asia. Prior to BRIEF, he was leading research on non-tariff barriers and free trade agreements at Indian Council for Market Research.

Nikita Singla, Associate Director, BRIEF Over the last decade, Nikita’s engagements have spanned across Regional Cooperation, International Trade and Logistics, and Overseas Development Assistance with a focus on South Asia. Prior to BRIEF, she worked with the World Bank Group’s South Asia Regional Integration unit, based in Washington DC. She is an Engineer from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi and studied International Economic Policy from Sciences Po Paris.

Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 11 At a Glance - Unilateral Decisions and Bilateral Losses

In February 2019, in the wake of a militant attack in the Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian government decided to withdraw the status of Most Favored Nation (MFN) for trade granted to Pakistan since 1996. Subsequently, it increased customs duty on all goods imported from Pakistan to 200%. Following the airstrikes in the Balakot region (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province) later in February, Pakistan and subsequently, India barred each other from their respective airspaces, with Pakistan extending the ban for nearly five months. In April that year, the Indian government suspended trade across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir region citing misuse of the trade route by Pakistan-based elements. Four months later, it enacted the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill, reorganising the former Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories—Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh1. Pakistan, thereafter, reduced diplomatic and economic ties with India — expelling the Indian envoy, partially shutting its airspace, and suspending bilateral trade and postal services.

Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan led their governments to each retaliate through successive unilateral decisions. Each decision, while targeted at hurting the neighbor, caused losses in both countries. As in the past, traders in both countries were affected, albeit much more severely this time around.

“Post Kargil times were difficult times too, but we survived that. This time the situation looks much grimmer. As they say, you stop supplies and your money dries. Our survival is at stake” — Trader in Amritsar, Punjab, India

Trade between India and Pakistan has fluctuated but persevered over the years, surviving the jolts of the Kargil conflict in 1999, and terror attacks on India’s parliament in 2001 and city of Mumbai in 2008, among other incidents. Sometimes, it was about more than just survival, as sudden surges in bilateral tension were followed by determined efforts to resume normalcy. For example, after the bombing of Samjhauta Express—a train service connecting India and Pakistan via the Attari-Wagah border—in February 2007, modalities to allow trucks to move across this border were chalked out in August that year, and this transit was initiated two months later in October.

Bilateral trade has immense potential to spur development in both countries, but politics continues to trump economics. Following the deterioration of India-Pakistan ties in February 2019, traders and citizens, at large, have stood by their respective governments. But the India-Pakistan face-off has had more repercussions than foreseen. Traders have lost much business, especially those in the countries’ border economies; dry dates—commonly referred to as the poor man’s dry fruit—have gotten dearer; prices of many goods, like cement and rock salt, that had been kept under check by the balancing out of international-trade mechanisms, have experienced fluctuations2; suspension of cross-LoC trade— an important Confidence Building Measure (CBM) between India and Pakistan—has disrupted the livelihoods of those dependent on this trade over the last decade; and the airspace bans severely affected the activities of airline operators and associated businesses, causing inconvenience to passengers.

1 All mention of Jammu and Kashmir in this book refers to the newly formed union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, as there are no crossing points for travel or trade across the LoC in the union territory of Ladakh 2 As of 20 November 2019, tomato prices hit PKR 400/kilogram in Pakistan; Dry dates became expensive by 300%, Price of a cement bag in India shot up from nearly INR 275/bag to around INR 375/bag between February and May 2019.

At a Glance - Unilateral Decisions and Bilateral Losses 13 Border economies in India—including those of Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir—and export clusters The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay in Pakistan, like Punjab and Sindh, have been hit the worst. The numerous spinning mills of Ludhiana, a district of Indian Punjab, have lost access to Faisalabad, a district in Pakistani Punjab that provides a between Politics and Economics valuable consumption base less than 300 kilometers away. There’s a similar story on the Pakistani side, where for example, rock salt that was primarily exported to India, lost a huge market next door. Trade between India and Pakistan has remained hostage to politics for years. Strikingly, however, even amid the unimaginable violence and bloodshed that accompanied the creation of the dominions of India For many traders in Amritsar’s Majith Mandi or Srinagar Mandi, the politics of trade seized their only and Pakistan in 1947, their respective political leaderships managed to keep trade and economic issues source of livelihood. The current face-off has left these trade communities wondering if they are being separate from politics. penalized for having traded with their Pakistani counterparts, after being nudged initially to trade across the border in order to push bilateral engagement further. Pakistan’s Trade with India, 1949 - 20184 Any form of border trade creates its own economic ecosystem and emotional capital. Today, this 60.0% ecosystem seeks support from the governments and peoples of India and Pakistan. While the bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was relatively small3 for its suspension to have any significant impact In 1948–49, about 56% of Pakistan’s India was Pakistan’s largest trading 50.0% exports supplied India, while 32% of partner, and this continued to be the on the two countries’ national economies, their local economies are suffering significantly. So, until Pakistan’s imports came from India case until 1955–56 bilateral trade resumes, what are the alternative sources of livelihood that can be generated to support Between 1948 and 1965, India and From 1947 to 1965, India and Pakistan the border economies? 40.0% Pakistan used a number of land routes entered into 14 bilateral agreements for bilateral trade - eight customs related to trade facilitation covering stations in Punjab province and three avoidance of double taxation, trade 5 30.0% custom check posts in goods, food items, air services, and banking

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% 1949 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1952

% share of Pakistan's Imports from India % share of Pakistan's Exports to India

But this changed with time. Economic relations between the two countries became a casualty of their continued differences over the Jammu and Kashmir region, and wars in 1965 and 1971.

And after the India-Pakistan war in 1971, the Even in 1965, nine branches of six Indian Simla Agreement was signed, under which the two banks were operating in Pakistan6. sides agreed to resume trade and cooperation in economic and other agreed fields as far as possible.

4 “FY 1948 - 49 from J.A Klam, India Pakistan Trade Relation, IOSR Journal of Business Management, Vol 5, 2012, p.1; FY 1949 - 2002 from Dr. H Ahmed, S.J Burki and M.Imran, A Primer: Trade Relations between Pakistan & India (1947 -2012), USAID Trade Project, 2012, p.24, 35; 2003-18 from International Trade Centre; Kugelman, Michael. Hathaway, Robert. Pakistan-India Trade: What Needs To Be Done? What Does It Matter?. 2013. Wilson Center, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ASIA_121219_ Pakistn%20India%20Trade%20rptFINAL.pdf.” 5 These included eight customs stations in Pakistan’s Punjab province at Wagah, Takia Ghawindi, Khem Karan, Ganda Singhwala, Mughalpura Railway Station, Lahore Railway Station, Haripur Bund on River Chenab, and the Macleod Ganj Road Railway Station. 3 Back in 1948–49, Pakistan’s exports to India accounted for 56% of its total exports, while 32% of Pakistan’s imports came from There were three custom checkposts in Sindh at Khokrapar, Gadro, and Chhor India. Today, as per 2018-19 data, these have reduced to 2.1% and 3.4% respectively. For India, its exports to and imports from 6 “Kugelman, Michael. Hathaway, Robert. Pakistan-India Trade: What Needs To Be Done? What Does It Matter?. 2013. Pakistan are 0.63% and 0.10% of its total exports and imports, respectively Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/ASIA_121219_Pakistn%20India%20Trade%20rptFINAL.pdf.”

14 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics 15 Since then, several attempts have been made to revive peaceful and cooperative relations between the In the last two decades, various initiatives have prompted the trade communities of India and Pakistan two nations, but these efforts have been repeatedly thwarted. These included the Lahore Declaration of to come together in order to improve bilateral economic relations. In 2005, amendments in the maritime February 1999 that sought peaceful resolution of bilateral disagreements but was let down a few months protocol that allowed vessels from India and Pakistan access each other’s ports in order to lift cargo later by the Kargil War; the Agra Summit in July 2001 that proposed reducing nuclear arsenals, resolving destined for a third country, and the opening of Wagah-Attari border for bilateral trade, provided differences over the Jammu and Kashmir region and curbing cross-border terrorism but was followed impetus to both sea and land trade. Later, in 2008, trade began across the Line of Control, that was by the bombing of the state legislative complex in Jammu and Kashmir, and an attack on the Indian followed by the terror attacks in Mumbai only 35 days later. Yet, this trade survived the recurring parliament later that year; the initiation of cross-LoC trade in October 2008 that came under scrutiny political impasses to thrive for more than a decade. Further, in 2011, the 5th and 6th rounds of talks on after the Mumbai terror attacks a month later; and, in 2015, hug diplomacy—a new effort at diplomacy commercial and economic co-operation between commerce secretaries of India and Pakistan pushed by Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, who made a brief stopover in Pakistan for the birthday of for speedy normalization of bilateral trade, development of associated infrastructure, new commerce Nawaz Sharif, the former Pakistani prime minister (2013-17)—which fizzled out after the 2016 militant initiatives, more business-to-business interactions and dismantling non-tariff barriers. Bilateral trade attack on an Indian airforce station in Pathankot, a border district of Indian Punjab. These, among other was thus encouraged, increasing from USD 1.93 billion in 2011-12 to USD 2.60 billion in 2012-13. It incidents, continued the game of ‘snakes and ladders’ between India and Pakistan. was accompanied by other measures as well, such as setting up of the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at the Attari-Wagah border; Pakistan substituting a positive-list import regime, which allowed import of The geographical proximity, cultural similarity, linguistic commonalities and prerogative of economic 1,946 goods from India, with a negative-list scheme, which barred 1,209 items from this bilateral trade; development shared by India and Pakistan should naturally propel bilateral trade and economic and building traders’ confidence and dispelling misapprehensions over cross-border trade through cooperation. Traders of both countries have ceaselessly shown an inclination towards doing business comprehensive dialogue between business chambers and associations in India and Pakistan. In addition, with each other. The commencement of bilateral trade by road; amendments in the maritime protocol in 2012, authorities from both countries agreed on issuing a larger number of multiple-entry visas to that provided impetus to sea trade between the two neighbours; inking of the South Asian Free Trade citizens from the neighbouring country, and sportingly organized a bilateral cricket series in India. Area (SAFTA) agreement, which sought to liberalize trade in South Asia; and the initiation of dialogue in 2011 on normalizing India-Pakistan trade have all created new opportunities for enhancing bilateral Yet, India and Pakistan remained far from realizing the full benefit of their proximity and potential. In 2014 trade. Had these factors translated into tangible gains, India and Pakistan could have realized their full a new government was elected in India. Narendra Modi, the former chief minister of the Indian state of trade potential, which is an estimated USD 37 billion a year according to a recent World Bank report7. Gujarat, was sworn in as the country’s prime minister in a ceremony attended by Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s However, in 2018-19 bilateral trade stood at an abysmal USD 2.6 billion. Over the last 5 years, this trade prime minister at the time. There was new hope for peace and prosperity in the South Asian Association has remained low—between USD 2.2 billion and USD 2.6 billion annually—and is currently suspended. for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), an intergovernmental body and geopolitical union of South Asia. This belief was strengthened by dialogue between the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan in July 2015; India-Pakistan Trade, 2000-2019 (USD million) the Indian prime minister’s surprise visit to his Pakistani counterpart in December 2015, wherein they announced plans to resume peace talks; and the extension of the maritime cooperation memorandum 3000 in February 2016. However, building on these efforts was notably impeded by militant attacks in Indian

2701 Punjab - in the Gurdaspur district in July 2015, on an airforce station in Pathankot district in January 2016; 2612 2607 2561

2500 2413 2372 2354 and a terror attack near the town of Uri in Jammu and Kashmir in September 2016. 2276 2239

2000 1939 1810 1849 The numbers and voices on the ground have always stood as testimony to the substantial potential for 1674 India-Pakistan trade yet to be tapped, but these untoward incidents pushed India-Pakistan ties downhill 1500 again, reaching a new low in February 2019.

1000 869 616 500 345 251 251 209 0

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Total Trade (USD million) Import from Pakistan Export from India to to India (USD million) Pakistan (USD million)

Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India

7 “Kathuria, Sanjay. 2018. A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia. South Asia Development Forum. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30246.”

16 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics 17 It all goes downhill: India-Pakistan Fallout Post February 2019

14th February 2019 A militant attack in the Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir

16th February 2019 Decision: The Indian government withdrew the status of Most 26th February 2019 Favoured Nation (MFN) for Airstrikes in the Balakot region trade granted to Pakistan since (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province). 1996. Subsequently, it increased customs duty on all goods Decision: Pakistan and subsequently imported from Pakistan to 200% India barred each other from their respective airspaces, with Pakistan extending the ban for nearly five months 18th April 2019 Decision: The Indian government suspended trade across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir 5th August 2019 region citing misuse of the trade route by Pakistan-based elements The Indian government enacted the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill, reorganising the former Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories—Jammu and 9th August 2019 Kashmir, and Ladakh Decision: Pakistan, thereafter, reduced diplomatic and economic ties with India — expelling the Indian envoy, partially shutting its airspace, suspending bilateral trade on 9 August 2019 and postal services on 27 August 2019.

18 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike Barely a day after the Pulwama attack on 14 February 2019, the Indian government announced its withdrawal of the MFN8 status for trade accorded to Pakistan since 1996. On 16 February 2019, it issued a gazette notification (number 05/2019), which hiked the import duty leviable on all goods—listed under the first schedule to the Customs Tariff Act, in section XXI, in chapter 98—originating in or exported from Pakistan to 200%.

[TO BE PUBLISHED IN THE GAZETTE OF INDIA, EXTRAORDINARY, PART II, This led to a significant drop in Pakistani exports to India. In 2018-19, bilateral trade between India and SECTION 3, SUB- SECTION (i)] Pakistan was valued at USD 2.6 billion; India’s exports to Pakistan accounted for USD 2.06 billion and GOVERNMENT OF INDIA India’s imports from Pakistan were at USD 495 million. The Indian government’s decisions—withdrawal MINISTRY OF FINANCE of MFN status and imposition of 200% duty— hurt Pakistan’s exports to India, that fell from about USD DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE 45 million per month in 2018 to USD 2.6 million per month in March-July 2019.

Pakistan’s Exports to India (USD million) Notification No.05/2019-Customs 2018 2019 43.83 New Delhi, the 16th February, 2019 41.79 G.S.R...... (E). – WHEREAS, the Central Government is satisfied that the import duty leviable

on all goods originating in or exported from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, falling under 34.61 33.43 33.47 31.76 the First Schedule to the Customs Tariff Act, 1975 (51 of 1975) (hereinafter referred to as the Customs Tariff Act), should be increased and that circumstances exist which render it necessary to take immediate action.

NOW, therefore, in exercise of the powers conferred by sub-section (1) of section 8A of the 18.56 Customs Tariff Act, the Central Government, hereby directs that the First Schedule to the Customs Tariff Act, shall be amended in the following manner, namely:-

In the First Schedule to the Customs Tariff Act, in Section XXI, in Chapter 98, after tariff item 3.33 2.84 2.85 9805 90 00 and the entries relating thereto, the following tariff item and entries shall be 2.61 1.2 inserted, namely: - FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India “9806 00 00 All goods originating - 200% -“. in or exported from the Islamic Republic ”India and Pakistan have a preferential trading arrangement under the South Asia Free Trade Area of Pakistan (SAFTA) agreement. Could we have withdrawn MFN status granted to Pakistan but still honored SAFTA? Amidst a political bilateral impasse, have we, in reality, disregarded a multilateral agreement like SAFTA?” — Trader in Amritsar, Punjab, India [F.No.354/40/2019 -TRU]

The extent of loss incurred by traders in India and Pakistan has varied based on the nature and route of trade. For example, through the Wagah-Attari land route, bilateral trade was heavily in favor of Pakistan; (Gaurav Singh) in the last two financial years 2017-19, India’s imports from Pakistan accounted for 82% of the trade Deputy Secretary to the Government of India through this land route. Since February 2019, most of this trade has been badly affected, and only a

8 Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status is given to an international trade partner to ensure non-discriminatory trade between all partner countries of the WTO. A country which provides MFN status to another country has to provide concessions, privileges, and immunity in trade agreements. It is the first clause in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

20 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 21 handful of items—including rock salt—continue to be imported from Pakistan - through Wagah-Attari land route till August 2019 and later through sea routes, for example, via the UAE9, after the trade was suspended. Effects and the Affected

Unlike national economies, border economies, by virtue of their geographical location, depend on cross- Families directly affected in Amritsar border economic opportunities. These economies generally experience expansion or contraction on because of breadwinner’s dependence account of political changes, trade bans, and fluctuations in prices, taxes and foreign-exchange rates. Most 9,354 on bilateral trade costs and benefits are mutual to these economies, on both sides of the border. Efforts elsewhere, such as the inception of border haats10 along the India-Bangladesh border, showcase the interdependence of the local economies along the border, much more in cases such as Amritsar where major economic activity is largely dependent on border trade with Pakistan. 1,724 126 4,050 2,507 176 Amritsar is landlocked, is not a metropolis and traditionally has no significant industry11. Hence, any Traders Custom House Trucks Labour Dhabas & decision on India-Pakistan trade has a direct impact on the local economy and the people of Amritsar. Agents Vendors Since February 2019, according to interviews conducted on-the-ground, over 9,000 families have been directly affected in Amritsar because of their breadwinners’ dependence on bilateral trade. Traders and their employees, customs house agents (CHAs), freight forwarders, labourers, truck operators, dhaba 32 51 8 80 600 owners, fuel-station operators, and other service providers are going out of business and closing shop. Fuel Tyre Puncture Weigh Parking Stakeholders in Of the nearly INR 30 crores that was being added to the local economy of Amritsar every month, the Stations and Mechanic Bridges the vicinity of estimate now is that three-quarters of it has been lost post February 2019. Shops Amritsar

Upsetting the cross-border trade apple cart can often have more repercussions than foreseen. Trade disruptions often cause fluctuations in the price of goods that would have otherwise been kept under check by the balancing out mechanisms of international trade. For example, gypsum, imported from Pakistan, was Nearly to the being used in India as well as in Nepal as raw material for their cement plants. To avoid empty backhauling, INR 30 crores was being added trucks carrying these consignments brought back other products such as yarn from mills in the Indian state local economy of Amritsar every month, the estimate of Uttar Pradesh to Indian Punjab. In the absence of gypsum trade, the per-kilogram freight rate of trucks is that three-quarters of it is lost. transiting from Uttar Pradesh to Indian Punjab has increased, from INR 3 to INR 7 as per on-the-ground estimates; this has made a single trip cost as much as the entire journey did before February 2019. Loss to the tune of INR 75 lakhs every day

With Pakistan deciding to completely suspend bilateral trade, exports of cotton from India to Pakistan are affected the most, eventually hurting Pakistan’s textile industry – especially lawn cloth and home textiles business, which has to source pricier cotton from alternative markets (raw cotton from the United States, Australia, Egypt or Central Asian countries and yarn from Indonesia, Central Asian countries and other spinning clusters). In addition, there is a high possibility that Indian cotton, along with other products, is being routed through third countries such as the United Arab Emirates, thereby increasing the share of indirect trade which is estimated to be more than double the direct trade between India and Pakistan.

Overall, there has been a loss in business, rise in prices, lack of alternative sources of livelihood for many, as well as an expected increase in bank defaults. Individual cases, for example, of a clearing agent in Amritsar, who has no means to pay the equated monthly instalment (EMI) for his home loan, highlight the hardship of locals dependent on border economies.

9 Imports of Pakistani goods are not banned by India, and are hence allowed via third country on the payment of 200% duty 10 “Singla, Nikita. Kathuria, Sanjay. Connecting Communities through India and Bangladesh’s Cross-Border Markets. 2018. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/connecting-communities-through-india-and-bangladeshs-cross- border-markets.” 11 Limited manufacturing of various goods including textiles, woollen fabrics, chemicals, and machinery, and some rice mills

22 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 23 A total of 4 Pumps in the vicinity of Attari border catering to the trucks going in and out 1433 Porters and 21 Custom of ICP Attari. 1014 Helpers15 Of the 7 Mechanic House Agents in There are a total of shops near ICP 391 Traders in Amritsar14 with a staff Each filling station Labor turn every alternate 12 8 Parking spaces Attari, only 2 are Majith Mandi and 40 of at least 5 each had an owner along day, making INR 400/day; open now. Each traders outside Majith with 6-8 delivery boys Post-February, turn every available for trucks Families mechanic shop had at Mandi with 13 15 days if lucky. In addition, waiting to enter a staff of Affected 126 least 2 staff each at least 3 each 60 labourers outside ICP. ICP Attari (Only CHAs with licence in Amritsar, other CHAs outside Amritsar, for Families Families Families Families Families example in Ludhiana, also Affected 32 Affected 2,507 Affected 80 Affected 21 Affected 1,724 impacted) 9,354 families affected

Of the 10 Tyre There were 4 Weigh bridges On the 10 major 450 with Nearly 900 Puncture shops 27 Dhabas in the with one helper each Trucks Trucks routes with different near ICP Attari, only 4 close vicinity of the an owner, driver outside Attari Truck districts of Punjab are left. Each shop had border which were Families and a helper each Union connecting to Amritsar, at least 2 staff each dependent on truck 8 Affected considering a minimum drivers to earn a living, Families Families of 5 fuel stations, Families Affected Affected 30 Affected of which 26 are shut 1,350 2,700 dhabas, tyre puncture and only 1 is still and mechanic shops 218 trucks surrendered from open, staff of at least 5 with a staff of 2-3 each, February to November 2019 each; along with that were primarily 40% trucks surrendered in 40 days from 14 vendors. dependent on this trade February to March 2019

Families Families 176 Affected 600 Affected

12 All traders listed in Annexure F 13 All mention of staff refers to employed staff, excluding the owner 15 All porters and helpers listed in Annexure F 14 All CHAs listed in Annexure F

24 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 25 Pakistani products into India Commodities traded – Shift from Jan 2019 to July 2019

Pakistan’s exports to India fell from an average of USD 45 million per month in 2018 to USD 2.6 million per month in March-July 2019. Number of trucks from Pakistan to India 2271 Gypsum 93 Rock Salt Loose Pakistan’s Exports to India (USD million) 1479 Cement 67 Salt Bags 280 Dry-Fruits 52 Dry-Fruits 2018 2019 249 Dry-Dates 44 Jeera 43.83 JULY 2019 41.79 JAN 2019 241 Lime Stone 24 Mulathi 34.61

33.47 33.43 168 Rock Salt Loose 8 Gugal 31.76 5,102 119 Salt Bags 309 8 Cotton 7 Ratan Jot 18.56 79 Aluminium Ore 67 Soda 3 Melon 35 Sajji Khar 2 Others 2.84 3.33 2.85 2.61

1.2 120 Others

FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY

Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India Number of trucks from India to Pakistan

JAN 2019 JULY 2019 Trucks crossing Wagah Attari 200 Cotton Yarn 178 Cotton Yarn 227 27 Plastic Granules 203 25 Plastic Granules Trucks carrying Imports from Pakistan

Monthly average of trucks 5000 Source: Central Warehousing Corporation, ICP Attari crossing from Wagah to Attari 4000 fell from 4,381 in April-November 3000 2018 to 348 in the same period 2000 in 2019. 1000 (Post the trade ban in August 2019, the trucks crossing over from Pakistan into 0 India originated from Afghanistan) July April May June August October September November 2018 2019

Trucks carrying Exports from India

Monthly average of trucks 400 crossing from Attari to Wagah 300 decreased from 223 in April- November 2018 to 113 in the 200 ROCK SALT DRY-DATES CEMENT GYPSUM same period in 2019. 100

0 Rock Salt – one of the most imported products from Pakistan to India – continued to cross the border

July April May June in March-August 2019, but other products like gypsum, cement and dry dates have taken a massive August October September November hit since the fallout in February 2019. 2018 2019

Source: Central Warehousing Corporation, ICP Attari

26 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 27 “Seeing the spiked potential of “There were normally 4 “Before February 2019, we were Education suffers Rising crime and drug menace India Pakistan trade, I bought 3 labourers working to unload making nearly 2 drums of black “I had such a great life, thanks to the trade. “On 18 February 2019, 3 days after the duty hike, trucks for INR 24 lakhs each in and load one truck. In a day, oil every month, every drum of I was making INR 400/ working day so the electricity pole on the main Amritsar-Attari 2016, already sold off two at INR they made approximately 400-500 litres. We were selling 6.25 lakhs each. In cases where 10 bags of cement from the black oil at about INR 20/litre, technically INR 200/day that was enough highway had gone missing; a few days later a bank instalments are pending, spillover, selling them outside making nearly INR 18,000 every to live a respectable life. Now I am trying to tea stall owner outside Dana Mandi was robbed we are surrendering trucks at INR 150/bag, making nearly month. Now our income has survive my 5-member family on INR 400/15 of everything; it’s a situation of self-imposed to the banks, the situation INR 1500 income/day. A father gone down to INR 2000 per days. Life is becoming difficult, I have moved curfew after 8 PM in Attari, we are looking at is such that even banks are and all his 3 sons were into month” – A mechanic shop one of my children from private school into a a rapidly worsening law & order situation in refusing to take them back. this - now all of them are out owner in Attari government school, because I cannot afford Amritsar, with many of our children resorting to Some of us got rid of them of work, and the only ‘literate’ to pay tuition fee, the other two children are drugs for the price of the trash” son managed to find a job “We had a turnover of nearly ” – A truck owner at Attari as a Granthi (priest) for a 2- INR 35,000-40,000/month, now moving towards drugs and I feel so helpless” – A stakeholder in Dana Mandi in Attari Truck Union hour shift at Gurudwara Sahib at about INR 3500-4000/month, – A porter at ICP Attari making INR 250/day on which its very difficult to survive, I the whole family survives” used to pay monthly rent of – A labourer outside ICP Attari INR 1500 for my shop, now rent of nearly 8 months is pending. I will be kicked out any day” – A tyre puncture shop owner Monetary LESS WORK, at Attari “We had about 40-50 trucks/ loss is not the day parked with us, paying MORE LOSS INR 100/truck for 24 hours, now its zero, my staff of 10 only loss people is reduced to 4 now” – A parking manager, Attari “Our 450 trucks of Attari truck “94% of the monthly income16 of union were buying close to INR ICP Attari was lost from the first “Back in the days, I got permanent 30 lakhs of diesel every month, half of February 2019 to second Weddings get called off Loss of people to people connect residency in Hong Kong. In now it has reduced to INR half of the month. Amongst 2010, I decided to move back “One of my staff was getting married on 18 “There is a direct link between trade and people- 1.5 lakh every month. On an CWC staff, only 3 of the 15 to Amritsar seeing the potential February 2019. Post Pulwama, when the to-people connect, one leading to another. To average, sales have gone down officers are working now, rest of trade via Wagah- Attari. I from INR 20 lakhs/month/ have been transferred” trade stopped, the bride’s family called off the promote regional cooperation in South Asia, got 30 trucks employing 30 pump to INR 65,000/month/ – A CWC Staff, ICP Attari marriage mentioning that the groom doesn’t we need more of both. Regional cooperation drivers, 30 helpers and 12 extra pump” – Accountant, Attari have any source of livelihood now. My boy in South Asia, which is primarily driven by the for makeshift – because there Truck Union was so much demand. Now of – he neither has a job, nor a family today” bilateral relations between India and Pakistan, the 72, I only have 12 people – A contractor at CWC weigh bridge will be negatively impacted because of the with me – that too retaining current situation” – A trader in Amritsar with great difficulty” – A truck owner at Attari Truck Union (previously a permanent resident of Hong Kong)

16 Monthly income comprising of Handling Charges, Import Storage Charges, Indian truck parking charges, India LWB (Lorry Weighbridge) Charges, Pakistan LWB Charges and Pakistani truck parking charges.

28 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 29 CASE STUDY I Pakistan is the only South Asian country that grows dates on a commercial scale. Following Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Pakistan is the world’s fifth largest date producer. Nearly 98 percent of its dried dates’ exports go to the huge market next door—India. Dry date – the poor man’s dry Hard dry dates (chhohara or kharek—HS Code 08041030) had been one of the principal commodities India sourced from Pakistan, its imports from Pakistan almost entirely meeting its requirements; data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicates that the share of India’s imports from Pakistan was fruit, gets dearer 99% of its total imports from the world for fiscal years 2017-18 and 2018-19. Date palm is the third-largest produced fruit crop in Pakistan, after mango and citrus. The fruit is grown in all four provinces of Pakistan, and over 160 varieties of date palm are found in the country18. Pakistan’s Balochistan and Sindh provinces contribute most of the country’s production of dates. Aseel, a popular date Of India’s total dry date Consumer Impact variety from Sindh province—largely produced and dried in its Khairpur district–is exported majorly to India. imports, Pakistan’s Most dry fruits in the Indian Other countries exporting dry dates to India include Oman, Iraq, Israel, Iran and the United Arab share in 2018 - 2019 market are priced at INR 800- Emirates (UAE). 900 per kilogram. However, dry % dates, sold at INR 30-100 per Table 1: India’s Imports of Hard Dry Dates (HS Code 08041030) USD Million kilogram, are one of the few 99 economical options available, Exporters 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 rightly called the poor man’s dry fruit. Post February 2019, World 100.92 89.70 127.44 112.13 101.23 prices of dry dates have Duty Hike: Customs duty hike increased by almost 250-300%. of 200% actually translated Pakistan 98.27 87.84 125.80 111.30 100.50 into a hike of ~1600%17 for a truck of 24 tonnes Total Duty/ Truck Oman 2.44 1.84 1.64 0.82 0.70 (1 truck of 24 tonnes) Retail Price (INR) Iraq 0.16 0.02 – – 0.01 240-260 /kg INR lakhs (sourced from market survey, further price Israel 0.03 – – – 0.01 hike because of lack 35.85 of availability) Iran 0.01 – – – 0.00

Retail Price (INR) United Arab Emirates – – – 0.01 – INR lakhs 60-70 /kg Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India 2.10 (depending on freight rate to destination)

18 “Menon, Ahmed, Noor. India Major Importer of Pakistani Dried Dates. 2018. Dadabhoy Institute of Higher Education. http:// 17 Duty Calculation in Table 2 foodjournal.pk/2018/PDF-January-February-2018/Dr-Noor-Dates-2018.pdf.”

Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 31 The commodity – comprising a fifth of India’s imports from Pakistan19 – has been sourced over the years Table 2: Costing and pricing of Sukkur dry dates imported via Wagah-Attari (INR/kilogram) through the Wagah-Attari route. However, India’s imposition of a 200% customs duty on dates from Pakistan – a substantial hike from the erstwhile rate of 5% – adversely affected their bilateral trade. Pre-Feb 2019 Post-Feb 2019 Interviews with traders located in Khari Baoli market in Delhi and Majith Mandi in Amritsar indicated that nearly 500 traders across India sourced dry dates from Pakistan, and were heavily dependent on trade Invoice value 60 cents20 (INR 43.20) 60 cents21 (INR 43.20) of this single commodity. They have been deeply affected by the halt in India-Pakistan trade, and most of them have gone out of business. Enhanced value for duty calculation 67 cents (INR 48.24) 67 cents (INR 48.24)

“I was sourcing dry dates worth INR 1 crore per month from Pakistan, Basic customs duty 5% (INR 2.41) 200% (INR 96.48) and became jobless overnight. I need something to sustain my business.”

— Trader, Khari Baoli, Delhi, India Cess 10% (INR 0.24) 10% (INR 9.65)

About 70% of Majith Mandi was dependent on dry dates. Customers coming “ Integrated goods and service tax 12% (INR 6.10) 28% (INR 43.22) to buy dry dates would also buy other stuff. Now the mandi looks like a barren land.

Moreover, we can’t afford to retain the rental warehouses for stocking dry dates.” Total duty 8.75 149.34 — Trader, Majith Mandi, Amritsar, Punjab, India Other charges (Central Warehousing 1.50 1.50 The earnings of traders, their staff, clearing agents, freight forwarders, labourers and truck operators Corporation/Clearance) have been hit by the deterioration in India-Pakistan ties since mid-February 2019. The most severely Landing price 53.45 194.04 affected appear to be the numerous women from slums around Amritsar that had scrimped together a living from this bilateral trade. Margin 1-2 1-2

Wholesale price 55-56 195-196 Nearly 1,000 women 60-70 240-260 Retail price (depending on freight rate to (sourced from market survey; further were dependent on destination) price hike because of lack of availability)

hand-cutting of dry Total duty / Truck (1 truck is 24 tonnes) INR 2.10 lakh INR 35.85 lakh

dates to make a living. Source: Direct interactions with dry-date importers in Amritsar

In this way, the Indian government’s hike in customs duty charged on goods imported from Pakistan, to 200%, actually translated into a hike of ~1600% for a truck of 24 tonnes of dry dates. Most dry fruits “A woman typically made around INR 150/day from hand-cutting of dry dates in the Indian market are priced at INR 800-900 per kilogram. However, dry dates, usually sold at INR coming from a single trader. All women catered to multiple traders, 30-100 per kilogram, offered a more economic option, and were thus renowned as the poor man’s a living of close to INR 300-400/day per woman has been lost.” dry fruit. Post-February 2019, prices of dry dates have increased by almost 250-300% in Amritsar as well as in other cities - Delhi, Lucknow, Kanpur, Indore - the main markets for the commodity. This —Dry-date importer, Majith Mandi, Amritsar, Punjab, India has also affected the prices of other products dependent on dry dates. For example, the price of a betel-leaf paan has shot up by 50%, from INR 20 to INR 30 as of November 2019, because the betel As per a survey in the retail markets in Delhi and Amritsar, the dry-date variants priced at INR 30/ nut (commonly referred to as supari) used in the preparation became pricier, increasing from INR kilogram and INR 70/kilogram soared to INR 100/kilogram and INR 250/kilogram, respectively. The table 100/kilogram to INR 220/kilogram. Based on a survey in November 2019, the dry-date stocks in the below shows how the customs-duty hike pushed up the final retail price for Sukkur dry dates—the most Indian markets had become unaffordable and, in most cases, there was no stock in these markets, commonly imported variant via the Wagah-Attari route, from Sukkur, a city in Sindh. as the duty hike led to its non-availability.

19 The share of dry dates in India’s overall imports from Pakistan has been 23% and 20% in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively, as 20 USD 1 has been taken as INR 72 for this calculation per data from Export Import Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India 21 For comparison, same invoice value and same exchange rate has been used

32 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 33 The question arises, where are the dry dates available in Indian markets being sourced from? The harvesting season for fresh dates in Pakistan starts in July and runs till September, hence August— January is the main season for dry dates. Dry dates produced in Pakistan only have a few markets, the An assessment of import patterns for an eight-month period, February-September 2018, shows that biggest being India (98% of Pakistan’s dry-date exports go to India) followed by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. the commodity was exported to India primarily by Pakistan. However, data from February-September Dry dates are mainly used for religious rituals in India, and are also consumed as a dessert and sweet, 2019 shows that dry-date imports from Oman witnessed a progressive increase from March 2019 given they are free of cholesterol and fat. In the wake of the current escalation of India-Pakistan tensions, onwards, whereas there was no import of the commodity from Pakistan; for example, the value of dry-date stocks have accumulated in Pakistan, and farmer prices—paid usually by middlemen who buy India’s dry-date imports from Oman increased to USD 280,000 in June 2019 from USD 40,000 in June in bulk—have decreased up to 40%22. This leaves Pakistani exporters with two options: find substitute 2018, displaying an increase of USD 240,000. This difference forms around 5% of Pakistan’s exports markets or alternate routes to reach the Indian market. of dry dates to India in June 2018, some of which seems to be routed through Oman to India. a) Substitute markets: Pakistan was exploring exporting dry dates to Sri Lanka23 as of August 2019, Further, Dubai, an emirate of the UAE, has been an ‘open secret’ destination for routing goods from when a delegation of dry-date importers from Sri Lanka arrived in Sukkur on invitation of the Pakistan to India, and vice versa. Successive month-on-month increases in the value of dry dates Pakistan government’s agency for promoting international trade, the Trade Development Authority India imported from the UAE were recorded in April-September 2019, during which timeframe imports from Egypt and Iran commenced as well. The Indian government’s imposition of incremental of Pakistan (TDAP). Sri Lanka may not be able to replace India, but is a potential market for Pakistan. duties on Pakistan—and eventual ban on bilateral trade by Pakistani government—led to a drastic Moreover, catering to Sri Lanka’s demand for dry dates could potentially allow Pakistan to reroute decrease in the overall import of the dry dates, as per official data and trader interviews. exports into India, given that the island country is a transshipment hub to India, and prior studies have revealed Sri Lanka as an informal trade route between Pakistan and India. India’s import of dried dates (HS Code - 08041030) by country, February-September 2018 vs

February-September 2019 THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE BUSINESS Pakistan turns to Sri 20.00

18.00 Lanka for dry date exports By Usman Hanif Published: August 6, 2019 16.00

14.00

12.00

10.00 b) Alternate routes: As per official data and our interactions with traders, we gathered that the Indian

Million USD 8.00 government’s imposition of 200% duty on Pakistan, led Pakistani traders to reroute dry-date exports

6.00 through countries such as Oman. In early September 2019, Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) Mumbai zone officials arrested four local businessmen for allegedly importing over 400 tonnes of dry 4.00 dates—worth nearly INR 9 crore—illegally to the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT)24, located in the 2.00 Indian state of Maharashtra. Following the arrest, Indian authorities issued an alert across all ports in 0.00 the country regarding illegal import of dry dates from Pakistan via Oman. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2018 2019 IRAN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.61 0.33 Govt Alerts ports over illegal import EGYPT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

UAE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.51 0.99 1.54 of dates form Pakistan Before the pulwama attack, the duty on import of dry dates was around 30% to 50, which increased up 200% afterwards. The move caused a huge loss to Pakistani as well as Indian traders of dates. PAKISTAN 7.68 6.05 5.19 5.32 4.87 2.52 17.01 18.43 3.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00

OMAN 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.21 0.21 0.07 0.22 0.28 0.55 1.20 0.75

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

22 “Hanif, Usman. Pakistan turns to Sri Lanka for dry date exports. 2019. The Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/ story/2028954/2-pakistan-turns-sri-lanka-dry-date-exports/.” 23 Ibid. 24 “Yadav, Kumar, Vijay. Govt alerts ports over illegal import of dates from Pakistan. 2019. Hindustan Times. https://www. hindustantimes.com/cities/govt-alerts-ports-over-illegal-import-of-dates-from-pakistan/story-iprUgAEVhXJBtvlFGodUKN.html.”

34 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 35 “While in June 2019, the Indian While Pakistan is the fifth largest producer of dates in the world, local traders believe that they need to improve upon farm management, pre-harvesting, harvesting and post harvesting practices. Pakistan customs authority permitted produces dry dates in surplus, which is why it has to export. According to Sindh Abadgar Board25, dry date re-exporting dried date producers in Pakistan did not develop their product over the years, which is why they don’t have much shipments stuck at Attari choice in terms of market other than India, and Pakistan has to import dates for its own population, especially for Ramazan. Dry dates dominate in the country’s exports because of high demand in India. checkpost, 400 tonnes (8,600 Importers in other countries continue to buy Pakistani dates only to add value and then re-export. This bags—each bag of 50-70 value is being missed by Pakistan’s agri-value chain26.

kilograms) were stuck there, There are no immediate substitutes to imports from Pakistan as far as dry dates are concerned. If the incurring demurrage at the rate of trade ban or imposition of significant trade barriers between India and Pakistan continues, traders on both sides may continue exploring informal trade routes. Meanwhile, market forces will keep pushing up INR 1,50,000 per month, and dry-date prices in India while, conversely, pulling them down in Pakistan. When the two countries start cleared only in October 2019.” “The situation is such that while looking at reviving bilateral relations, revival of trade could be given prominence to ensure relief for the there is accumulation of stocks of trading community as well as meet existing consumer demand. —Trader, Majith Mandi, Amritsar, dry dates in Pakistan, and there is Punjab, India no soybean meal coming from Indore, we are now using dry dates for animal feed.”

—Trader, Lahore, Punjab, “Given the demand, we are ready to Pakistan pay 200% duty and source Pakistani dry dates via a third country, but we fear what if the duty is waived off overnight just as it was imposed? We will have to sell our

stock at a massive loss.” “May to September is a harsh —Trader, Majith Mandi, Amritsar, season, given the climate Punjab, India in Pakistan. We need cold storage to be able to save our accumulating stocks, and value-addition techniques so as to meet our local demand with the existing stocks.”

25 “Hanif, Usman. Pakistan turns to Sri Lanka for dry date exports. 2019. The Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2028954/2- — Trader, Lahore, Punjab, pakistan-turns-sri-lanka-dry-date-exports/.” 26 “Dates Production in Pakistan. 2019. Pakistan Defence Forum. https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/dates-production-in- Pakistan pakistan.617337/.”

36 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 37 CASE STUDY II Portland cement (HS code 25232910) is one of India’s principal imports from Pakistan, which has always had a relative advantage in producing this commodity; Pakistan’s Portland cement, reportedly, does not contain fly ash and is thus of superior quality to that produced in India. Of the 21 countries India imported Portland cement from in 2018, Pakistan was its largest supplier, providing quantities worth Cement and Gypsum – drying USD 59.92 million. According to data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Pakistan’s share in India’s overall import of the commodity in 2017-18 and 2018-19 was 90% and 86%, respectively. Further, India’s import of Portland cement in 2017-18 and 2018-19 formed 16% and 12%, respectively, of its total Pakistani supplies pushing India import from Pakistan. Though India is the second-largest producer28 of cement in the world, there is considerable demand for cement from Pakistan in the Indian market due to its high quality. for ‘survival or revival’ To produce cement, gypsum is needed. Gypsum is often called the white gold of Pakistan. In 2018, raw gypsum, reportedly, became one of Pakistan’s most traded items with India via the Wagah-Attari border. For the month of January 2019, of the total 5102 trucks crossing Wagah-Attari from Pakistan into India, 2271 carried gypsum. Of India’s total cement Consumer Impact In Pakistan, there are installed capacities for cement in various locations in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, imports, Pakistan’s As per traders, cement Baluchistan and Sindh provinces29. Apart from demand from destinations such as India, South Africa, share in 2018 - 2019 was being sourced from Iraq and Afghanistan among others, there is considerable domestic demand in Pakistan owing to rapid % Pakistan at around INR 175 urbanization and infrastructure development plans. The major gypsum mines in Pakistan include per bag (50 kg bag). The Dadukhel Mine, Dera Ismail Khan Mine, Khewra Mine, Kohat Mine, Mawand Mine and Rakhi-Munh Mine. prices shot up: 86 Cement and gypsum producers in India have expressed concern that their domestic industry—which is reeling from low demand, and high goods and service tax—has long been hurt by cheaper imports from Pakistan. The Indian government had refrained—prior to February 2019—from levying customs duty on Had traders continued to import INR/ bag cement imports from Pakistan since 2007, rendering these supplies cheaper and more competitive than cement via Wagah-Attari, duty the Indian product. But, with the ban on India-Pakistan trade drying up supplies from Pakistan, will India’s hike of 200% would have actually cement and gypsum market pursue imports from other countries or will demand for locally-produced cement and gypsum increase? translated into a hike of ~1005%27 375 Total Duty/ Truck Our interactions on the ground in Indian Punjab revealed that the primary reason for sourcing cement (1 truck of 70 tonnes) and gypsum from Pakistan had been the cost benefit in terms of logistics—acquiring these commodities via the Wagah-Attari route was much cheaper than domestic routes from Indian states such as Rajasthan. Though the price difference has decreased in recent years, the demand for Pakistani cement remains as INR lakhs it provides greater value for money. Before the 200% duty hike, ordinary Portland cement from Indian (INR/ bag) locations such as Rajasthan was over INR 40/bag more expensive than its import from Pakistan. Indian importers normally have to make advance payments to source cement from Pakistan. Despite delays in 8.20 recovery of payments from end users, acquiring these commodities from Pakistan is more economical 250-260 for them as the logistics cost is lower than if sourced domestically.

INR 74,200

28 Monthly cement production in India was 26 million tonnes in October 2019 as per Office of Economic Advisor, India 27 Duty Calculation in Table 4 29 All Pakistan Cement Manufacturer Association

38 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 39 Table 3: India’s imports of cement and gypsum, in USD million Table 4: Costing and pricing of cement imported via Wagah-Attari (INR/MT)

Pre-Feb 2019 Post-Feb 2019 India’s imports of ordinary Dry Portland cement (HS Code 25232910), in USD million 52 USD/ MT (3620 INR/MT or 52 USD/ MT (3620 INR/MT or Invoice value 175 INR/bag) 175 INR/bag) Exporters 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Enhanced value for duty calculation 3786 3786 World 50.25 55.61 90.36 85.80 69.91

Basic Customs Duty 0% 200% (INR 7572) Pakistan 44.44 48.61 83.42 77.48 59.92

Cess 0% 10% (INR 757) Bangladesh 5.80 6.70 6.33 5.65 3.95

IGST 28% (INR 1060) 28% (INR 3392) Bhutan 0.01 0.16 0.20 0.10 3.40

Total Duty 1060 11721 United Arab Emirates 0.00 0.13 0.39 2.47 2.57

Other Charges (CWC/Clearance) 260 260

India’s imports of natural gypsum and anhydrite Landing Price 4940 15601 (HS Code 25201010), in USD Million Margin 60 60 Exporters 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World 97.18 75.13 77.19 111.65 114.94 Wholesale Price 5000 INR/MT or 250 INR/bag 15661 INR/MT or 783 INR/bag

Oman 67.04 44.51 40.89 49.03 53.47 Retail Price in Amritsar 5240 INR/MT or 262 INR/bag 15900 INR/MT or 795 INR/bag

302 INR/bag 835 INR/bag Pakistan 19.54 17.63 16.23 17.90 18.72 Retail Price in Delhi (Freight rate Amritsar to (Freight rate Amritsar to Delhi 40 INR/bag) Delhi 40 INR/bag)

Total Duty / Truck 74,200 8,20,470 Iran 6.29 8.98 14.85 36.67 19.85 (1 Truck is 70 tonnes)

Source: Direct Interactions with Cement Importers in Amritsar Thailand 2.30 1.45 3.15 5.20 6.08

Many traders have reported that following the stoppage of imports from Pakistan, there have been UAE 0.87 2.55 1.53 1.53 14.40 sustenance issues, for Indian importers—especially in places like Amritsar—who have been heavily dependent on cement and gypsum from Pakistan. As per traders, cement was being sourced from Bhutan - - - - 1.27 Pakistan at around INR 175 per bag (50 kilogram bag) and sold in the market at INR 250-260 per bag. This had shot up to INR 375 per bag post February 2019. Wall putty and tile flooring businesses Others (South Africa, China, Korea, Italy, Germany, Morocco, 1.13 0.01 0.58 1.30 1.09 that are based on white cement have been impacted as well by the non-availability of cement from Singapore, Korea) Pakistan. Our interactions with traders indicate that after trade with Pakistan was barred, there Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India was an increase in local sourcing and augmented imports from alternative sources, including from Bhutan and the Middle East.

40 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 41 Many a time, upsetting the apple cart can have more repercussions than intended. For example, India’s import of Portland cement in February-September 2019—post stoppage of its supply from gypsum imported from Pakistan was being used by cement plants in India as well as Nepal. To Pakistan—increased from Bhutan, which emerged as an alternative source, supplying considerable avoid empty backhauling on the return journey to Indian Punjab, trucks carrying these consignments amounts of the commodity in 2019. India’s Portland cement imports originating from the UAE surged brought back specific products such as yarn from mills in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. In the considerably month on month in March-September 2019. As per our primary interactions, many of the absence of gypsum trade, the freight rate of trucks from Uttar Pradesh to Punjab, as per the ground consumers have facilities in countries such as the UAE, which offer an alternative option for sourcing the reports, has increased from INR 3 to INR 7 per kilogram, with a single trip absorbing the cost of the commodity, entering into India from ports like Kochi and Tuticorin. entire journey. As far as gypsum is concerned, it is a commodity very sensitive to logistics. As rerouting is not an option, it remains to be seen how the local production picks up. For example, there are around 160 million metric tonne reserves of gypsum in the districts of Baramulla, Doda and Ramban of Jammu and Kashmir30. India’s import of Portland cement (HS Code - 25232910) by country, February-September Aiming to optimally harness the gypsum-rich mines of Jammu and Kashmir, especially in light of the 2018 vs February-September 2019 construction of the Sawalkote hydroelectric dam in Ramban, proposals were sought for mining and exporting of 7 million tonne gypsum in that area31. This is an alternative some of the traders in Amritsar 9.00 have already been eyeing in partnership with locals in Jammu and Kashmir. Following the passage of the 8.00 Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill of 2019, there could be more influx towards the mines in Jammu and Kashmir. 7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

Million USD 3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2018 2019

UAE 0.32 0.42 0.24 0.23 0.12 0.29 0.28 0.23 0.11 0.48 0.63 0.88 0.69 0.58 0.70 0.52

Seychelles 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Qatar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PAKISTAN 6.87 7.26 6.68 6.03 5.69 5.12 5.21 5.45 3.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bhutan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.59 0.80 1.40 0.85 0.55 0.77 0.72

Bangladesh 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.19 0.17 0.39 0.20 0.28 0.51 0.49 0.11 0.30 0.05 0.27 0.06 0.06

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

30 “India Brand Equity Foundation. Jammu & Kashmir. 2016” 31 “J&K aims to harness mineral resources to boost economy. 2017. Outlook The News Scroll. https://www.outlookindia.com/ newsscroll/jk-aims-to-harness-mineral-resources-to-boost-economy/1202652.”

42 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 43 CASE STUDY III Rock salt is another commodity which India imports primarily from Pakistan. As per 2018-19 data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, though rock salt formed around 1% of India’s overall imports from Pakistan, India’s requirements of the commodity were almost entirely sourced from its western neighbour. Rock salt from Pakistan has been imported by road over the years, and is preferred over sea Rock Salt – the pink gold of 32 salt primarily because of its health benefits .

Pakistan has some of the world’s best rock-salt variants, which are up to 99% pure. The commodity is Pakistan, with no substitutes in India primarily mined in Pakistan’s Punjab province, in ranges stretching from Kalabagh to Jhelum. Rock salt mines are found in areas such as Khewra, Warcha and Kalabagh. The Khewra rock-salt mine, located in Pakistani Punjab’s Jhelum district is the country’s largest, and the world’s second largest. Much of Pakistan’s rock-salt produce has been exported to India over the years. Of India’s total rock salt imports, Pakistan’s share Consumer Impact Table 5: India’s imports of rock salt (HS Code 250100200), in USD million in 2018 - 2019 Retail Price in Amritsar (INR/kilogram) % Exporters 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 World 1.55 2.39 2.28 2.99 3.59 99.7 Piece 12.15-13 Pakistan 1.53 2.37 2.27 2.98 3.58 Afghanistan 0.003 - - - 0.001

Total Duty/ Truck China 0.01 - - - - (1 truck of 33/ 40/ 70 tonnes) Customs duty hike of 200% actually Germany 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 translated into an introduction of new duty 5-6 of INR 3-6 lakh/ truck based on the truck United Arab Emirates 0.001 - - - - size, soaring prices by almost 100%. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India 33 Tonnes 40 Tonnes 70 Tonnes (INR lakhs) (INR lakhs) (INR lakhs) Apart from Pakistan, Germany has been a regular rock-salt supplier for India over the years, and there Crushed have been instances of some minor import from Afghanistan, China and the UAE. Over 98% of India’s rock-salt import demand was met by sourcing Pakistani salt through the Wagah- 2.8 3.4 5.9 Attari route over the years. For all these years, no customs duty was levied on rock-salt imports. Thus, 18-20 the Indian government’s imposition of 200% customs duty on goods from Pakistan was not a hike for the rock-salt importers, but an introduction of duty instead. Interviews with traders in the Indian cities of Amritsar (Majith Mandi), Delhi and Indore showed how dependent the Indian market is on Pakistani salt.

“Despite 200% duty, rock salt was the only product to have survived the 10-12 ‘Pulwama jolt’ and continued to be traded, because a) there are no substitutes 0 for this and b) it’s a low-value, transport-sensitive commodity.” — Trader in Majith Mandi, Amritsar, Punjab, India. (sourced from market survey)

32 It is believed that Pakistani rock salt is one of the purest salts available, is lower in sodium and consists of trace minerals, such as potassium, magnesium and calcium

44 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 45 As per a survey in the retail markets of Amritsar in November 2019, the price of crushed rock salt rose In this way, India’s customs-duty hike of 200% on goods from Pakistan actually translated into an from INR 12/kilogram to INR 20/kilogram, and has been rarely available since February 2019. The table introduction of new duty of INR 3-6 lakh/truck based on the truck size, raising prices by almost 100%. below shows how the hike in customs duty on goods from Pakistan affected the final retail price for rock Rock salt is often called the pink gold of Pakistan as it is globally renowned for its flavor and reported salt imported via the Wagah-Attari route. health benefits. While it is India’s most demanded food additive, as table and cooking salt, it also has other unique properties giving it an additional niche market—cattle, which are fed rock salt by dairy Table 6: Costing and pricing of rock salt imported via Wagah-Attari route (INR/kilogram) farmers across the country. It is reported33 that rock salt provides a range of vital minerals, boosting animals’ overall health and efficiency, also reducing cud and risk of frothy bloat. Cattle have shown a 13% increase in milk yield when fed a diet supplemented with rock salt. Thus, Pakistani rock salt is popular in Pre-Feb 2019 Post-Feb 2019 goshalas—protective shelters for cows in India.

Pre-Feb 2019 Post-Feb 2019 “Shri Pathmeda Godham Mahatirth—the world’s largest cowshed, located in Rajasthan—was sourcing about 25 trucks (of rock salt) Invoice value 2.75 2.75 per year from us at a heavily discounted rate of INR 60,000 for a 20-tonne truck, now the same truck costs INR 4,00,000.” Basic customs duty 0% 200% (INR 5.5) —leading rock-salt importer in Amritsar, Punjab, India.

Cess 0% 10% (INR 0.55) Rock salt is often used in spas and for home-décor, and rock-salt lamps are said to provide health benefits because they are natural ionizers and believed to relieve all kind of allergy symptoms. Those Integrated goods and services tax 0% 28% (INR 2.46) who struggle with asthma, bronchitis and other respiratory issues34 claim to benefit from Himalayan rock salt—a variety from Pakistan’s Punjab province. Before February 2019, rock-salt lamps were imported at Total duty 0 8.5 30% duty compared to zero duty on rock salt, hence lamp factories had started to come up in the Indian cities of Amritsar, Saharanpur, Delhi and Ahmedabad, among others.

Other charges (CWC/Clearance) 0.50 0.50 In order to ascertain the effect of imposition of incremental duties by the Indian government and, subsequently, the stoppage of bilateral trade by Pakistan, India’s rock-salt import in February-September Landing price 3.25 11.75 2019 was assessed. Pakistan had been the sole source of rock salt a year earlier, in February-September 2018. In 2019, though there were instances of import of the commodity from Germany (in March) and the UAE (in May and September), rock salt continued to be sourced from Pakistan through Wagah-Attari Margin 0.05-0.25 0.05-0.25 land route till August 2019 and later through sea routes like the UAE35 after the trade was suspended. This persistence in bilateral trade can be attributed to the fact that rock salt is a low-priced import from Wholesale price 3.30-3.50 11.80-12.00 Pakistan. The cost of procuring rock salt from Pakistan had been around INR 3/kilogram prior to February 2019, but after the imposition of 200% duty, it rose to around INR 12/kilogram. 12.15-13.00 (piece) 5-6 (piece) Retail price in Amritsar 18-20 (crushed) 10-12 (crushed) (sourced from market survey) 11.50-13.50 19.50-21.50 Retail price in Delhi (crushed) (crushed) (Inclusive of freight rate of INR 1.5/ (Inclusive of freight rate of INR 1.5/ kilogram from Amritsar to Delhi) kilogram from Amritsar to Delhi) INR 2.8 lakh (33-tonne truck) Total Duty / Truck (1 truck is 33/40/70 0 INR 3.4 lakh (40-tonne truck) tonnes) INR 5.9 lakh (70-tonne truck)

Source: Direct interactions with rock-salt importers in Amritsar

33. “Himalayan Rock Salt: Why we should feed it to our cattle. 2017. https://www.thatsfarming.com/news/himalayan-rock-salt-benefits.” 34 “Twelve Reasons to Keep a Himalayan Rock Salt Lamp in Every Room of the House. 2019. The Jerusalem Post. https://www.jpost. com/PromoContent/12-Reasons-To-Keep-A-Himalayan-Salt-Lamp-In-Every-Room-Of-The-House-443379.” 35 Imports of Pakistani goods are not banned by India, and are hence allowed via third country on the payment of 200% duty

46 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 47 India’s imports of rock salt (HS Code - 25010020) by country, February-September 2018 vs Before February 2019, the major flow of bilateral trade was from India to Pakistan (USD 2.06 billion in February-September 2019 2018-19)—which did not take place under the ambit of MFN—while the export from Pakistan to India was low (~USD 494 million in 2018-19). These Pakistani exports got severely hit by the Indian government’s MFN withdrawal and duty hike in February-July 2019, followed by the complete suspension of trade by 0.4 Pakistani government in August 2019. There was a major decline in Pakistan’s direct exports to India since February 2019, but some products like rock salt continued to be traded directly till August 2019. 0.35 Others were routed through third countries, like the UAE and Oman, increasing the share of indirect

0.3 trade, which is estimated to be almost double the direct trade between India and Pakistan. Though more difficult than ever before, India-Pakistan trade through third countries is still an option, that too a viable

0.25 one. Goods from India and Pakistan continue to successfully enter each other’s markets across their shared border as the trade mechanisms of indirect trade are more organized than the mechanisms of 0.2 direct trade. This reflects a continuous inclination of the traders on both sides towards doing business with each other. Million USD 0.15

0.1

0.05

0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2018 2019

Iran 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

UAE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PAKISTAN 0.30 0.33 0.27 0.24 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.35 0.16 0.08 0.15 0.12 0.17 0.27 0.11 0.00

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

However, despite the drops in monthly imports of rock salt in February-September 2019, there were no indications of this trade being rerouted till Pakistan banned trade in August 2019. It can be gauged, therefore, that rock salt—which is a low-cost and high-volume product—is not cost-sensitive but logistics- sensitive. Despite tariff barriers and the presence of alternate sources, rock salt from Pakistan continues to be a highly cost-effective alternative to that exported by other countries to India, thereby justifying the inclination of Indian traders towards sourcing the commodity from Pakistan.

“There are no substitutes for Pakistani salt, hence it is being rerouted but that has zero benefit to the land economy, the whole supply chain is moving away to the seaports.” —Rock salt importer, Amritsar, Punjab, India

48 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision I: MFN Withdrawal and Duty Hike 49 The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics 51 Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade On 18 April 2019, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, announced the suspension of cross-LoC trade via its two trade facilitation centres - Salamabad and Chakan-da-Bagh - in Jammu and Kashmir. It cited concerns about misuse by Pakistan-based elements, involving illegal inflows of weapons, narcotics and currency into India. In addition, the Indian government was, reportedly, concerned about the zero-tariff barter arrangement with Pakistan being violated through under- invoicing and the exchange of third country items36.

The LoC between India and Pakistan was conceived as a part of the Simla Agreement in 1972. It was 33 years later that the governments of the two nations decided to set wheels in motion; on 7 April 2005, the then Indian prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, flagged off the first cross-LoC bus service—titled Karwaan-e-Aman, or peace caravan—that connected Srinagar to Muzaffarabad. The cross-LoC bus service was a humanitarian reform that helped reunite the divided families and friends on either side of the LoC.

Later, in 2008, the governments of India and Pakistan decided to further exploit the potential of existing transport routes by establishing cross-LoC trade. In May 2008, the respective foreign ministers of the two countries decided to finalize modalities of intra-Kashmir trade and truck service. Cross- LoC trade, established as a barter, began five months later, across two routes—Uri-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakot. Traders on either side of the LoC were permitted to exchange 21 mutually- agreed items. On 21st October 2008, the first truck, carrying rice, turmeric and red chillies, reached Uri by crossing the Jhelum river via the Kaman Aman Setu bridge. A signboard at the bridge, across the LoC, echoed the people-to-people connect shared between locals on both sides, notably stating, ‘From home to home, we extend a very warm welcome to our Kashmiri brethren’.

Given the underlying conditions, trade was seen as an important measure to build confidence and foster peace in the Jammu and Kashmir region. It was aimed at tapping the social interconnectedness of the two sides along the LoC in order to develop commercial interdependence. Cross-LoC trade has been an important CBM towards promoting economic and social development in the frictious regions along the LoC. Many traders, businesses, transporters and labourers have benefitted from this trade, and are invested in keeping the trade process active.

Cross-LoC trade would have died in its infancy if not for the spirit of the people involved. It is much more than a mere commodity exchange. This cross-LoC barter was not set up to be an isolated economic activity, but to open a new chapter of building bridges and (re)connecting communities. Despite many negative allegations, wrong perceptions, and intermittent suspensions - including indefinite suspension in April 2019 - associated with cross-LoC trade, this CBM has survived more than a decade, based on the following features:

♦ Two trade routes were identified, Uri-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakot. The two routes were developed taking into consideration the ease of conducting trade on pre-existing bus transport routes. ♦ The most unique feature of this trade was that it followed barter system, where goods were exchanged for goods. There was no financial transaction involved, and barter between trade-in and trade-out was balanced every three months. ♦ A list of 21 tradable items was mutually agreed between India and Pakistan. The list included items like fruits, vegetables, carpets, medicinal herbs and dry fruits. The list was not based on HS code. ♦ It was a ‘zero duty trade’, traders were not charged any kind of trade duties on either side of the LoC. ♦ The trade took place 4 days a week. A total of about 70 trucks were exchanged every day.

36 “Line of caution: On Suspension of cross-LoC trade. 2019. The Hindu.https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/line-of-caution/ article26914676.ece.”

52 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 53 Cross-LoC Exchanges since 2003 July 2008

November 2003 The joint working group on cross-LoC CBMs met in Islamabad aiming to simplify the procedure September 2008 India and Pakistan declared ceasefire along the September 2004 for issuing cross-LoC travel permits; increase LoC, and laid ground for initiating a peace process. The modalities regarding the movement of trucks, The then foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, the frequency of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad code of conduct for drivers, permits, security, Natwar Singh (2004-05) and Khurshid Kasuri bus service and launch a postal service between timings and list of items to be traded under cross- (2002-07), respectively, conducted a meeting the two cities; and discuss the list of items to be LoC trade were agreed upon between India and in New Delhi. Indian authorities proposed 72 allowed for trade through the truck service. Pakistan. CBMs in various spheres, including trade and travel across the LoC. Pervez Musharraf, former October 2008 December 2004 Pakistani president (2001-08), and Manmohan Singh, the erstwhile Indian prime minister (2004- A delegation of business leaders from Pakistan Shyam Sharan, former Indian foreign secretary 14), met in New York, where they agreed that visited India to discuss cross-LoC trade. (2004-06), announced that pertaining to the CBMs “of all categories under discussion between humanitarian issues affecting people on both Trade across the LoC commenced with the first the two governments should be implemented July 2011 sides of the LoC, India has put forward “a proposal truck crossing the LoC. This trade was limited to keeping in mind practical possibilities.” for meeting of families in Kashmir at five places, 21 items, and scheduled to take place two days The then foreign ministers of India and Pakistan, on designated days and periods of time, under each week. A second trade route across the Line S M Krishna (2009-12) and Hina Khar (2011-13), February 2005 joint security arrangements.” The proposed of Control was opened, connecting the cities of respectively, met in New Delhi to discuss ways to places included Mendhar, Poonch, Suchetgarh, The modalities of cross-LoC travel were finalized. Rawalakot and Poonch. improve travel and trade across Kashmir. Uri and Tangdhar. Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri announced this in Islamabad in a joint statement with his Indian September 2012 counterpart Natwar Singh after talks between April 2005 the two. India and Pakistan signed visa agreement easing travel restrictions for businessmen and First bus service from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad May 2006 introducing a new category of group tourism. was flagged off by Manmohan Singh, the then January 2014 The foreign ministers also expanded cross-LoC Indian Prime Minister. The governments of India and Pakistan agreed Confidence-Building Measures to allow travel Military officials from Pakistan and India agreed to revive trade in Kashmir. Indian authorities for tourism and pilgrimage. to further strengthen the ceasefire along the LoC announced the establishment of five working during a brigadier-level flag meeting held at the groups37 focussed on issues central to the March 2014 Rawalakot-Poonch crossing point at the LoC. differences over the Jammu and Kashmir region. June 2006 Officials from India and Pakistan agreed on The joint working group on cross-LoC CBMs met engaging in trade of raw products, mostly food Cross-LoC bus service was inaugurated from in New Delhi for the first time in eighteen months. July 2016 Poonch to Rawalakot through Chakan Da Bagh items, and no value-added or manufacturing and Tatrinote points. products between areas on either side of the LoC. March 2017 Cross-LoC trade was temporarily suspended along Srinagar-Muzaffarabad route amid unrest September 2006 Two-storey administrative block of Trade in Kashmir after Burhan Wani incident. Facilitation Centre (TFC) and police barracks May 2008 Pervez Musharraf, former Pakistani President at Chakan-Da-Bagh - the point for crossing of and Manmohan Singh, former Indian Prime the bus and trade exchange at the LoC, were The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan agreed March 2019 Minister met in Havana, Cuba, and agreed to damaged in cross-border shelling. to a series of Kashmir-specific CBMs - a triple-entry facilitate implementation of agreements and permit to facilitate crossing the LoC, to increase Trade along the Uri-Muzaffarabad route was understandings already reached on LoC-related the frequency of Muzaffarabad-Srinagar and April 2019 temporarily suspended for repair of a bridge over CBMs, including bus service, crossing points and Rawalakot-Poonch bus services from a fortnightly a water channel in parts of Chakothi sector. truck service. India’s Ministry of Home Affairs ordered a to a weekly basis and to finalise modalities for suspension of cross-LoC trade citing misuse by intra-Kashmir trade and truck services. Pakistan-based elements for funneling illegal

37 The first working group focusing on confidence building measures, the second focusing on strengthening relations across the LoC, weapons, narcotics and fake currency. the third dealing with the economic development of the state, the fourth aiming to provide good governance to people and the fifth aiming to strengthen centre-state relations. Source: Media Releases; The Stimson Centre

54 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 55 To ensure smooth trade across the LoC, trade facilitation centers were set up at four posts (Chakothi, Since October 2008, besides direct benefit to traders, cross-LoC trade has also resulted in: Tatrinote, Salamabad, Chakan-Da-Bagh) for safe and easy movement of goods across the LoC. After ♦ Employment generation: Cross-LoC trade has helped generate employment for the locals of the an order was placed with a trader on the Indian side, the truck loaded with goods moved to a trade Jammu and Kashmir region on both sides of the LoC. On the Indian side, from 2008-19, more than facilitation center. Here, the truck underwent a security check, before being issued a permit, and was then 1,70,000 job days were generated, cross-LoC trade providing various employment opportunities– moved across the LoC. After delivering the goods, the trucks returned to the Indian side the very same truck loading-unloading, driving and transiting cargo and working at trade facilitation centers, day. A number of institutions are involved to ensure cross-LoC trade functions efficiently. At the apex among others. level, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs and Pakistan’s Trade and Travel Authority (TATA) take decisions on facilitating cross-LoC trade and transit. The Jammu and Kashmir Joint Chamber of Commerce and ♦ Peace Building: Cross-LoC trade was not coined to be an isolated economic activity. It also aimed at opening a new chapter of building bridges and (re)connecting communities. Over the last Industry (JKJCCI) is another prominent institution that works to facilitate cross-LoC trade. decade, cross-LoC trade was seen as an important measure to build confidence and foster peace in the Jammu and Kashmir region. A Decade of Cross-LoC Trade ♦ Regional co-operation: Cross-LoC trade and travel has not only facilitated commercial interde- pendence but also social interconnectedness, creating a noteworthy link between trade, trust and Despite intermittent suspensions and ceasefire violations, cross-LoC trade and bus service had survived people-to-people connections. The mutual trade of goods enabled people on either side of the more than a decade, until this trade was suspended by India in April 2019. Between 2008-19, INR 7,500 LoC to connect with each other, thereby adding to the dynamics of India-Pakistan relations, which crores worth of trade was recorded across the LoC. This trade generated more than 1,70,000 job days, drive regional cooperation in South Asia. and freight revenue of about INR 66.4 crores for transporters in Jammu and Kashmir, on account of ♦ Formal institutes of co-operation: Institutions like the Jammu and Kashmir Joint Chamber of 1,11,113 trucks exchanged so far and INR 90.2 crores paid to labourers. While these numbers may be Commerce and Industry (JKJCCI) were formed as a by-product of cross-LoC trade. Trade and only a miniscule part of India’s overall economy, the impact of such CBMs go beyond standard metrics; industry stakeholders on both sides of the LoC came together through the common platform the cases of thriving businesses and reunited families on both sides of the LoC stand testimony to the offered by the JKJCCI, suggested reforms and subsequently implemented many of those measures. effectiveness of these measures. In terms of spirit and role played, JKJCCI is the first-of-its-kind, with its presidency rotating between Chamber of Commerce and Industry Jammu, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Decade of Cross-LoC Trade Mirpur Chamber of Commerce and Industry. INR No. of Cross-LoC trade became a celebrated CBM between India and Pakistan, but there have been concerns Crores Trucks around transparency in the standard operating procedure, invoicing, taxation and trader registration, 9000 among other aspects, that have hurt this trade over the last decade. Though cross-LoC trade has made headlines since its inception in 2008, the nature of media coverage it received significantly 1000 8000 changed over the following decade; there was a lot of euphoria associated with cross-LoC trade 7000 back in 2008, but this soon subsided, amid questions over its economic viability, sustainability and 800 national security implications. 6000

600 5000 Breaking Bridges and Losing Livelihoods at LoC

4000 After three wars between India and Pakistan, the opening of the line of control in 2005 came as a 400 step towards freer movement of people across the line of control. It held emotional value for the 3000 people of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides, particularly for the divided families. Till 2005, the

2000 divided families did not have any formal arrangement of crossing the LoC to visit their families. 200 Opening of LoC for travel in 2005 was followed by opening for trade in 2008. This barter trade 1000 achieving a turnover of INR 7500 crores in ten years, saw over one lakh trucks crossing the LoC. The common cultural heritage along with the longing to see one’s ancestral home or place of birth 0 0 across the line of control, was critical in giving the initial impetus to this trade and travel resulting in 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 stronger bonds between the people on both sides. Given the absence of any monetary exchange for goods, vulnerability to frequent trade suspensions and limited interactions between the traders of Trade In (from Trade Out (from Uri/ Trucks for Trade In Trucks for Trade Out Muzaffarabad/Rawalakot Poonch to Muzaffarabad/ two sides, some of the economic success of this barter trade, often referred to as blind trade, can be to Uri/Poonch) INR crores Rawalakot) INR crores attributed to the trust between the people on both sides. Source: Data Collected from Trade Facilitation Centres, Uri and Poonch, 2019 : All data in Annexure E

56 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 57 The sudden and indefinite suspension of Cross LoC trade on 18 April 2019 might eventually weaken the bridges gradually built through the exchange of goods and people to people contact. Trade community, mostly belonging to the border areas of Baramulla and Poonch, have suffered losses because of the suspension of trade. Over the last decade, the volume of trade vis-à-vis the two concerned routes, Uri- Traders Transport Labour Support Staff Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalakot, accounted for more than INR 7,500 crores, showcasing the economic capital created through this trade. Profit of INR 15 Estimated Loss of Labour at TFC: Agents, crores could not INR 5.5 crores Estimated Wage loss representatives, On-the-ground interactions with stakeholders reveal that about 600 merchants and 300 labourers that be realized of INR 95 lakhs middlemen, etc. (Freight for were all directly involved in the day-to-day trade operations across the LoC were most hit by the trade (Additional loss on Srinagar Chakothi Srinagar Mandi Wage loss of ban. In addition, there has been an indirect impact on: manufacturers and farmers that provided goods account of damage route) labour: INR 85 lakhs to perishable Wage loss of for this trade; end consumers, who now have to pay higher prices for same commodities; and shops, goods, market INR 65 lakhs restaurants and mechanics in the border area that depended on this trade and transit. Economic activity— price fluctuation, loss on account of in this case, cross-LoC trade—helped enhance connectivity for the otherwise far and isolated border areas balancing) of the districts of Poonch and Baramulla. It connected them not just across the LoC, but also to other local districts such as Jammu and Srinagar. Table 7: Losses at Uri-Muzaffarabad route due to suspension of LoC trade (31 weeks post Case study—Uri-Muzaffarabad route: A deeper analysis—based on interactions with stakeholders, 8 March 2019) including traders, transport and labour communities—of losses incurred due to the suspension of cross- LoC trade via the Uri-Muzaffarabad route, substantiates the concerns of the participants. Estimates of Post Movement Transport 8 March Traders cross-LoC trade in 2008-19 and interactions with merchants at Uri suggest that about 7,340 trucks would of Trucks Community Labour 2019 have been used to transit goods via the Uri-Muzaffarabad route for 31 weeks since 8 March 201938 in the absence of the trade ban; of these vehicles, 3,000 would be used for trade-in of goods and 4,340 for trade- Uri- Uri- Route Srinagar-Chakothi Srinagar-Chakothi out of goods. With so many trucks crossing over the LoC, potential freight earnings of INR 5.5 crores from Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad trucks transiting to and fro via the Srinagar-Chakothi route were lost. Assuming that traders average a profit of INR 20,000 per truck, potential profit of INR 15 crores for the 7,340 trucks that would have crossed Trade In 3,000 INR 6 crores INR 1.2 crores INR 48.6 lakhs the LoC, could not be realized by the traders in Uri. In addition, they faced losses on account of barter balances; damage to perishable goods that remained in transit; and market-price fluctuations after the cross-LoC trade was suspended. Trade Out 4,340 INR 8.68 crores INR 4.34 crores INR 46.8 lakhs

Beyond the trading and transport communities, an estimated loss of over INR 85 lakhs was incurred by Amount given to labour: concerned support staff, daily-wage labourers, middlemen and agents in 31 weeks after 8 March 2019. INR 4000 for a INR 1.8/kilogram on truck truck used for Interactions with labourers suggest they cumulatively lost about INR 160 lakhs – wage loss of INR 95 Assumptions, INR 20,000 Profit used for trade-in, INR 1.2/ trade-in, INR if any per truck kilogram on truck used lakhs by the labour at the Salamabad trade facilitation centre and nearly INR 65 lakhs foregone in labour 10,000 for a truck for trade-out; Weight: 900 wages at the Srinagar mandi, where many trucks are loaded and unloaded. The trade ban has not just used for trade-out kilograms affected the wages of these labourers, but has rendered most of them unemployed amid few alternative job opportunities. As cross-LoC trade is a barter, the financial implications—including disturbed payment Total Loss INR 15 crores INR 5.5 crores INR 95 lakhs cycles—from not closing barter balances between traders on either side of the LoC make shifting to completely new business avenues difficult for these merchants. Source: Direct Interactions with LoC traders in Uri

38 Trade along the Uri-Muzaffarabad route temporarily suspended on 8 March 2019 for repair of a bridge over a water channel in parts of Chakothi sector

58 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 59 From Line of Control back to Line of Commerce ♦ Currency conversion rate: Conversion rates between INR and PKR to be used for the invoicing should be formally announced at TFC every 15 days. Given that the US Dollar is being used as the medium for When the two countries start looking at reviving the confidence building measures across the LoC, it this conversion and both INR and PKR fluctuate greatly against USD, fixing of the conversion rate every will be crucial to address the concerns around transparency of cross-LoC trade. A revised strategy will 15 days will help traders with accurate conversions as well as reduce room for wrong doings based on be needed to re-initiate this trade, for which a few modifications in trade operations and the standard currency conversion. operating procedure (SOP) have been suggested below: Concerns over transparency have plagued cross-LoC trade over the last decade. These apprehensions ♦ HS-Code based product list: The present commodity list of 21 product categories should be replaced need to be addressed across the complete trade ecosystem, including enhancing transparency in the with a mutually agreed list of items based on HS code, addressing the issue of misinterpretation and standard operating procedure, invoicing, goods and service tax (GST) norms, and trader registration. misrepresentation of commodities. Clarifications on HS codes to prevent misrepresentation of commodities; setting up a rules of origin framework to avoid import of third-country goods; devising rules pertaining to goods and services tax ♦ Verification of traders: A monitoring cell may be constituted of officials from state and central rates and inter-state taxation to prevent evasion; and trader-registration policies to ensure credibility agencies, to keep a check on merchants and trade practices associated with cross-LoC transactions. of the traders involved are immediate steps that need to be taken in order to address long-standing This team can periodically study day-to-day cross-LoC trade practices—registration of traders, concerns over cross-LoC trade. invoicing, exchange of goods, and trade balancing, among others—in order to ensure transparency. Trade data and other relevant information pertaining to each registered trader should compulsorily Digitization of systems and procedures at trade facilitation centers is an important step that can help be recorded in electronic formats by a trade-facilitation officer, and shared with the cell regularly boost cross-LoC trade. Globally, when we look at trade facilitation, international as well as domestic, digitization of procedures and lower human intervention are the two major pillars that drive trade across for analysis and other real-time checks. The requirements for registration and verification should be borders. And today, more than ever before, there is an increasing focus on improving ease of doing detailed, and traders should be mandated to register. Past bank statements; income-tax returns; trade business ranking in India. Hence, similar steps are needed with respect to cross-LoC trade as well. Digital records; and details regarding goods and services tax registration numbers, and tax identity cards— platforms to monitor invoicing, traders’ records, barter balancing and truck information, among other such as permanent account number card—among other required documents, should be scrutinized details, will enable real time check by the authorities, leaving lesser room for misuse. in order to ensure all traders are verified. All traders should be required to submit their income-tax returns to the trade-facilitation officer annually. The current suspension of cross-LoC trade could be seen as a window of opportunity to address these issues and revive this trade in a stronger and more organized manner. ♦ Digitization of barter management: Setting up an IT platform would be a major step towards enhancing transparency in cross-LoC trade. All the transactions of trade-in and trade-out should When the governments of India and Pakistan decide to begin talks over cross-LoC CBMs, putting forth be recorded as digital invoices pertaining to the concerned traders. A record of details regarding stronger and more transparent cross-LoC trade mechanisms could give greater economic incentive to commodity, value, and buyer information, among other particulars should be kept. Apart from the find amicable solutions. Cross-LoC trade in this improved framework could continue to affirm the liberal time limit of 3 months, there should be an additional value limit on the outstanding amount for barter economic theory of peace-through-trade. in order to ensure timely and transparent completion of transactions. For example, if a limit of INR 50 lakhs is set and the trader crosses that limit in terms of the outstanding amount across the LoC, his/her next invoices should not get accepted in the system for trade out till the outstanding barter is brought below the threshold.

♦ Base price for commodities: A committee for setting base prices for commodities should be organized at trade facilitation centres. Such a body would help address concerns of under-invoicing. A base price will ensure a bare minimum is paid, thus keeping traders from lowering prices beyond the minimum in order to avoid taxes.

♦ Capacity building of traders: Developing the competency and capacity of traders, for example, on accounting practices, documentation, taxation and use of digital platforms is crucial to help enhance transparency of cross-LoC trade.

60 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision II: Suspension of Cross-LoC Trade 61 The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics 63 Decision III: Airspace Closure 11 June 2019

Pakistani authorities granted special permission to Narendra Modi, Indian prime minister for his Major Events related to the Airspace Ban flight to use Pakistani airspace on an official trip to Kyrgyzstan in order to attend a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). 26 February 2019 13 June 2019 However, it was not put to use. Pakistan’s civil aviation authority issued a Notice Pakistani government extended a partial to Airmen (NOTAM) for full closure of the country’s airspace ban along its eastern border with India 27 February 2019 airspace, until 28 February 2019 after airstrikes by till 28 June 2019. India’s airforce in Pakistan’s Balakot region. The Pakistan’s airforce conducted retaliatory airstrikes were in retaliation to a militant attack airstrikes; the Indian government closed nine 28 June 2019 in Pulwama district in Jammu and Kashmir on 14 airports (located in the districts of Srinagar, February that year. Jammu, Leh, Pathankot, Amritsar, Shimla, Pakistani government extended its eastern Kangra, Kullu Manali and Pithoragarh) in the airspace ban for commercial flights to and from 16 July 2019 country’s north for a few hours. India till 12 July 2019. Pakistan opened its airspace for civilian aircrafts on ‘published ATS (Air Traffic Service) routes’ after 140 days. Consequently, India also issued 1 March 2019 a revised NOTAM. Thus, normal air traffic 22 August 2019 operations resumed between India and Pakistan. Pakistani government extended the closure of its airspace to India; it partially opened airspace to Narendra Modi, Indian prime minister used commercial flights in four major domestic airports 26 March 2019 Pakistani airspace for the first time since February (located in the districts of Karachi, Islamabad, 2019 to fly to France, his first stop in his three- Pakistani government opened its airspace for Peshawar and Quetta). nation visit to France, the UAE, and Bahrain. all flights except for the cities of New Delhi 28 August 2019 (India), Bangkok (Thailand) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), pertaining to security reasons. Pakistani authorities closed three aviation routes over Karachi until 31 August 2019. The closure was a result of the high tension running between 7 September 2019 India and Pakistan after the Jammu and Kashmir 4 April 2019 Reorganization Bill 2019. Pakistani government refused Indian Pakistan opened one of its eleven air routes for government’s request to allow Ramnath Kovind, west-bound flights from India. Airlines such as President of India, to use Pakistani airspace for Air India and Turkish Airlines started using the 21 May 2019 his flight to Iceland. opened routes. Pakistan granted special permission to Sushma 18 September 2019 Swaraj, the then Indian Minister of External Affairs, to fly to Kyrgyzstan directly through Pakistani authorities rejected India’s request to Pakistani airspace in order to attend the foreign allow the Indian prime minister’s flight to use ministers’ meet at the Shanghai Cooperation 27 October 2019 Pakistani airspace for his visit to the United States of America (USA) via Germany. 31 May 2019 Organization (SCO), a regional security bloc. Pakistani authorities denied India’s request to allow the Indian prime minister’s flight to use Indian airforce announced the removal of all Pakistani airspace enroute to Saudi Arabia. temporary restrictions imposed on the country’s airspace after the Balakot airstrikes. Source: Media Releases

64 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision III: Airspace Closure 65 Unilateral decisions by India and Pakistan in 2019 that resulted in bilateral losses also include barring higher expenses due to the closure of Pakistani airspace. Majority of these were rerouted via Oman’s each other from their respective airspaces. Airlines of Pakistan and India are estimated to have incurred airspace, while around 100 flights were added to the already-congested air corridors of Iran. The rerouting losses of over USD 53 million and USD 80 million, respectively, during the ban between February and of flights led to the usage of longer routes. This entailed inflated costs, and midway halts for refuelling as July 2019. In addition, airlines and associated businesses faced various operational hassles, causing well as deployment of additional pilots and cabin crew, given that their duties are regulated. Flights from inconvenience to passengers. other countries also got affected, such as those of Air Canada and United Airlines that were hit by flight cancellations to the region. Other international airlines that were forced to reroute include Singapore In February 2019, after airstrikes by the Indian airforce in Pakistan’s Balakot region in response to a militant Airlines, Finnair, British Airways, Aeroflot and Thai Airways. For instance, around 451 kilometers got attack in the Pulwama district, Pakistan’s civil aviation authority completely closed the country’s airspace. added to the flight circuit from London to Singapore once the Oman route was taken, adding to the cost The Pakistani airforce retaliated with airstrikes which led Indian authorities to close nine of the country’s and flight duration. airports for a brief period. The series of developments that followed added to the uncertainty over airline operations. Pakistani authorities repeatedly extended a partial ban on using the country’s airspace, which was iii) Service-level delays: Avoiding Pakistani airspace led to longer routes and in some cases, an finally opened for all civilian aircrafts only in July that year. However, another partial closure—of three aviation additional stop, causing delays for airlines and their passengers. The flight duration for most routes over Karachi—followed a month later, after the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill 2019. As a common destinations, such as the Gulf, the US and Europe increased by 2-4 hours due to rerouting consequence, an array of flights had to be rerouted time and again, affecting the activities of airline operators and additional stoppages for fuel. For example, Air India rerouted its flights from New Delhi over the and associated businesses. The closure of Pakistani airspace to commercial flights between Kabul and New Indian cities of Mumbai and Ahmedabad, and across the Arabian Sea, to head via Muscat, Oman’s Delhi, the capital cities of Afghanistan and India, respectively, decreased Afghanistan's exports—dry fruit, capital city, to destinations in Europe and the UAE, thereby increasing flight times by around 1.5 vegetables, fresh fruit, carpets, and handicrafts, among others—to India by 30%39 between February and June hours and 1 hour, respectively42. Some of the most affected routes for Indian airlines included flights 2019. Afghan airlines, reportedly, routed flights via Iran and China to India, making these operations more from New Delhi to Kabul (Afghanistan), Moscow (Russia), Tehran (Iran) and Astana (Kazakhstan). expensive and time-consuming for airline companies.

The following section aims at highlighting some of the key issues faced. Case Study: Air India’s US Routes impacted because of airspace closure For Air India, the flag carrier airline of India, India-US routes were impacted due to the closure of airspace between India and Pakistan. Already long flights took even more circuitous routings. Rising Turbulence: Impact on airlines and people AIR INDIA (INDIA-US ROUTES)43 On Service Providers i) Cost escalation: The losses suffered by airlines during Pakistan’s airspace ban have been significant. From Routed via; S.No. To (US) Return For the duration of airspace ban between February and July 2019, losses for Air India, India’s flag- (India) Purpose carrier, which primarily flies to Europe, the US, and Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, reached 1. Delhi Chicago Via Vienna (Earlier rout- Non-stop due to tailwinds about USD 71.65 million; SpiceJet, which covers countries such as Afghanistan, Oman, the UAE and ed via Sharjah); Purpose: Refuelling, Saudi Arabia, were estimated at USD 4.48 million; IndiGo, with flights to Turkey, the UAE, Saudi 2. Delhi New York JFK Crew-change Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, among others, were around USD 3.66 million; and GoAir, whose overseas destinations include Oman, UAE and Kuwait, were approximately USD 300,000. These four 40 Indian airlines cumulatively lost over USD 80 million and Pakistani airlines have also endured losses 3. Delhi San Francisco Non-stop (operates via Non-stop (as usually operated by of over USD 53 million. Augmented operational and maintenance costs; increased consumption of Pacific so not impacted 777-200LR - longest range plane); fuel—which comprises around 40% of an airline’s operational costs—amid a rise in its price41; and by closure of Pakistani Stop at Sharjah for re-fuelling airspace) (when operated by 777-300ER) deployment of additional manpower/man hours all contributed to the jump in expenses incurred by airlines of the two countries. 4. Delhi Washington Via Mumbai Non-stop due to tailwinds Purpose: Refuelling ii) Disruptions in operation: The non-availability of Pakistani airspace affected flights from India to Gulf countries, the US and Europe. As per Air India, each day around 21 flights to these destinations were 5. Mumbai New York JFK Launched in December 2018, and route suspended due to adversely affected during the ban. Overall, around 400 Indian flights per day suffered longer routes and issues related to the closure of airspace

39 “Pakistan airspace closure reduces Afghan exports to India, says official. 2019. The Economic Times. https://economictimes. indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-airspace-closure-reduces-afghan-exports-to-india-says-official/ articleshow/69712280.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst.” 40 “Hashim, Asad. Pakistan Reopens Airspace Months After India Standoff. 2019. Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/ 42 “Sinha, Saurabh. How Pakistan’s Airspace Ban has Hit India’s Airlines. 2019. The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ pakistan-reopens-airspace-months-india-standoff-190716062219180.html?xif=).” business/how-pakistans-airspace-ban-has-hit-indias-airlines/articleshow/69155746.cms” 41 “Sinha, Saurabh. How Pakistan’s Airspace Ban has Hit India’s Airlines. 2019. The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ 43 “Air India adjusts US Flights due to Pakistan Airspace Closure. 2019. One Mile at a Time. https://onemileatatime.com/air-india- business/how-pakistans-airspace-ban-has-hit-indias-airlines/articleshow/69155746.cms” pakistan-airspace/”

66 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision III: Airspace Closure 67 On Passengers In addition to suspending postal services with India, Pakistani authorities curtailed the freedom for Indian postal items—previously guaranteed—to transit through Pakistan on the way to other countries. 45 i) Delays and layovers: Rerouting of Indian flights through alternative airspaces led to the introduction Suspension of India-Pakistan postal services had never happened before, even during wars . Jatin Desai, of an additional stop for refuelling, replacement of pilots and airline staff, and managing other a member of the Pakistan India People’s Forum for Peace and Democracy explained, “For instance, if an bottlenecks. Apart from longer routes and more travel time, the duration of layovers increased as well. Indian fisherman is arrested, the power of attorney that has to be sent to his lawyer cannot be couriered. 46 For instance, the flying time for flights to the US (New Delhi to Chicago and New York JFK) increased And courts do not accept emails.” Hence, official communication between the two countries is legally by around 90 minutes, necessitating refuelling to cover the long distance. These US-bound flights, mandated to take place through postal services. 44 therefore, halted at Vienna, Austria’s capital city . IndiGo, India’s largest domestic carrier by market As of 20 November 2019, nearly three months after Pakistan unilaterally stopped postal exchange with share, faced similar issues with flights to Istanbul, Turkey’s capital city. These flights, which took a India, the Director General of Pakistan Post had issued orders to partially restore the service, only to the longer course over the Arabian Sea following Pakistan’s airspace ban, had to be refuelled in Doha, extent of letters and Express Mail Service (EMS) documents. Qatar’s capital city, thereby adding to the delay.

“I flew from New Delhi to London on 14 July 2019. The journey took 11 hours. In a little bit longer, one could have reached New York. But after Pakistan opened the airspace on 16 July 2019, the flight on the way back from London to New Delhi was 7 hours 45 minutes. I paid about INR 20,000 more than what a usual Delhi to London flight costs,” – Nikita Singla (Personal experience of the author) ii) Increased fares: Indian airlines’ higher operational costs on being barred from Pakistani airspace increased fares, adding to the woes of the passengers. Fare escalations have largely been driven by inflated fuel cost due to rerouting. For instance, a Boeing 747 burns around 1 gallon (~4 litres) of fuel every second. Therefore, during a 10-hour flight, it can use up to 36,000 gallons (~1,50,000 litres). In terms of distance, as per Boeing, a 747 utilises around 5 gallons of fuel per mile, which is approximately 12 litres per kilometre. Therefore, longer routes forced airlines to increase ticket prices.

Besides barring access to the county’s airspace, on 27 August 2019, Pakistani authorities unilaterally suspended its postal services with India. The move came after the Indian government enacted Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill 2019. Pakistani government contended that the decision by its Indian counterpart violates international law. The Indian government maintains its actions in Jammu and Kashmir are legal under domestic and international law, and an ‘internal matter’. Meanwhile, Indian authorities pointed out that Pakistan’s suspension of postal services between the two countries is in direct contravention of international norms. Postal exchanges between countries are governed by rules framed by the United Nations’ Universal Postal Union (UPU); these rules oblige a country suspending postal services to another country to notify the latter’s postal-system operator of the same, specifying the duration for which these services are being stopped. Beyond these rules, India and Pakistan have three bilateral agreements in place regarding their postal exchange, namely the Exchange of Value Payable Article of 1948, Exchange of Postal Article of 1974, and International Speed Post Agreement of 1987.

45 “Chandrashekhar, Anand. Did Pakistan’s Suspension of Postan Services to India Break International Rules. 2019. Swissinfo. ch. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/mail-spat_did-pakistan-s-suspension-of-postal-services-to-india-break-international- 44 “Time Lost & Increased Costs: What India Stands to Lose if Pakistan Completely Shuts Down its Airspace. 2019. News18.com. rules--/45318690.” https://www.news18.com/news/india/time-lost-increased-costs-what-india-stands-to-lose-if-pakistan-completely-shuts-down-its- 46 “Article 370 Fallout: Pakistan is No Longer Accepting Mail from India. 2019. The Wire. https://thewire.in/external-affairs/india- airspace-2287661.html.” pakistan-post.”

68 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Decision III: Airspace Closure 69 Surviving the unilateral decisions and bilateral losses The politics of trade has seized the only source of livelihood for many traders in Amritsar’s Majith Mandi and Srinagar Mandi. After India’s withdrawal of the MFN trade status granted to Pakistan, and imposition of 200% duty on all goods imported from the latter country, the trade communities of both countries Be it in Punjab or Jammu and Kashmir, the ripples of the India-Pakistan face-off have been felt by stakeholders became even more apprehensive to engage across their shared border. After Pakistan suspended trade across social and economic fronts on both sides of the border/LoC. The Indian government’s imposition of with India in August 2019, even the most optimistic traders on both sides learnt the hard way that betting 200% duty hurt Pakistan’s exports to India, which fell from an average of USD 45 million per month in 2018 to livelihoods on politics was much riskier than was assumed. USD 2.5 million per month between March and July 2019. According to our interactions in Amritsar, more than

9,000 families were directly affected because of their breadwinners’ dependence on bilateral trade; and every “Trade is not a switch-on or switch-off phenomenon. While it can be switched off overnight, month, two-thirds of nearly INR 30 crores that was being added to the local economy was lost. Similarly, our like in February 2019, switching on will depend on the willingness of traders to engage again” study in Uri indicates that a profit of INR 15 crores that nearly 230 India-based cross-LoC traders could have —Trader in Amritsar, Punjab, India. cumulatively made in 31 weeks after 8 March 2019, along the Uri-Muzaffarabad route could not be realized. Any form of border trade creates its own economic ecosystem. Today, this ecosystem along the India- The situation in Amritsar, Baramulla and Poonch, owing to the suspension of trade, stands testimony to Pakistan border is looking to their respective governments for support—seeking collective measures the sufferings of the border economies as traders lost business and local livelihoods of those dependent to roll back duties and lift the ban on bilateral trade, and a remedial action plan in the interim. Formal on trade were affected. resumption of India-Pakistan trade, can help policymakers focus on addressing other trade-related

India-Pakistan relations have been sliding downhill since the militant attack in Pulwama in February 2019, issues—non-tariff barriers, lack of connectivity, technical and operational knowledge gaps, limited direct putting the skids under border trade. However, other bilateral developments offer hope. Amidst the trade, interactions between traders, among others. In addition, for cross-LoC trade to flourish there is a need airspace and postal-services ban, the Kartarpur corridor—a land route giving pilgrims direct and visa-free for a revised strategy towards its re-initiation; and addressing concerns over transparency across the access from India to a shrine that is located in the Pakistani town of Kartarpur—was opened ahead of the complete trade ecosystem, including regarding the standard operating procedure, invoicing, rules of 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev. The opening of the Kartarpur corridor can hopefully prove to origin, accurately representing commodities, goods and service tax norms, and trader registration, among be an important confidence building measure, if both India and Pakistan tread with caution. The biggest others. Reform measures to facilitate even an incremental growth in trade could support the ecosystem beneficiary of any thaw between the two neighbors would be the people of the Punjabs on either side of the along the India-Pakistan border, weaving the social fabric into well-meaning economic activities. border. So, until bilateral trade resumes, stakeholders have proposed faster execution of the Patti-Makhu rail project—a 25.47-kilometer-long rail link across Punjab, between the Patti area in the district of Tarn Taran “Naam Japo, Kirat Karo, and Vand Chhako are three pillars of Sikhism formalized by Guru Nanak and the Makhu region in Ferozepur district—that would reduce the distance travelled to Mumbai from Dev Ji meaning contemplating God’s name, working diligently, and sharing with others. While the cities of Amritsar and Jammu by 240 kilometers and 277 kilometers, respectively, thereby opening Kartarpur corridor offers us the first pillar of ‘Naam Japo’ at Gurudwara Darbar Sahib, the shrine a new array of economic opportunities. This rail link will be a boon for traders in Indian Punjab’s Majha in Kartarpur in Pakistan, the final resting place of our Guru, the ban on trade keeps the other and Malwa regions; cut short the distance between northern states; and connect Punjab and Jammu with two pillars at bay. We urge both the governments to open trade, that will be true justice to the major trade centres in other states such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat. sentiments and the livelihoods of the Punjabis” The Patti-Makhu rail project was conceived of in 2004, but took almost a decade to be approved by Indian — Trader in Amritsar, Punjab, India. authorities, securing a budget of INR 147.8 crores. Later, during the fiscal year 2017-18, Niti Aayog—a policy think tank of the Indian government—approved sanctioning of INR 299 crores for this project. Ample studies are available to highlight that there exists substantial untapped potential for India-Pakistan However, after several hiccups that have deterred the implementation of this project, in September trade and that the two countries’ respective trade communities have continuously shown inclination 2019, the government of Indian Punjab disclosed that INR 40 crores had been sanctioned for acquiring towards doing business with each other. Research studies have pointed out deficiencies and made policy land to construct this rail link. Speedy acquisition and, thereafter, transfer of this land to India’s railways suggestions on strengthening India-Pakistan trade. However, post-February 2019, India and Pakistan seem far from translating any of these policy suggestions into economic gains for their respective countries.

70 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Surviving the unilateral decisions and bilateral losses 71 ministry is imperative for commencing construction of the rail link, which can potentially connect the Until bilateral trade resumes, border economies need to be associated border economies to alternative sources of livelihood. supported, some of which could be through:

A shorter rail route could help in reviving business in Indian Punjab amid the India-Pakistan trade ban, which has rendered many unemployed. This project can connect traders and businessmen to better Expediting the execution of Patti-Makhu rail project—a 25.47-kilometer- economic opportunities, and even engage locals, who are more mobile, in constructing this railway line, Patti-Makhu long rail link across Punjab, between the Patti area in the district of Tarn thereby easing some of the hardships these communities have suffered due to the trade ban. Moreover, Taran and the Makhu region in Ferozepur district—that would reduce the new rail link could prove vital for defence purposes as two strategic bridges—Beas (named after the Rail the distance travelled to Mumbai from the cities of Amritsar and Jammu river it crosses) and Sutlej (at Harike where two rivers Beas and Sutlej meet)—have aged significantly, and by 240 kilometers and 277 kilometers, respectively, thereby opening a new array of economic opportunities through shorter and easier access have no capacity to support heavy traffic or high-speed trains. The Patti-Makhu rail link could thus be a Link to seaports like Mundra and JNPT for onward trade with other markets. valuable transit line for defending this border area.

As discussed earlier, while the bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was relatively small for its Exploring opportunities for direct air connectivity from the International suspension to have any significant impact on the two countries’ national economies, the local economies Airport in Amritsar to Afghanistan, the Middle East, and the Central are suffering significantly. They need immediate attention. Asia, for regular cargo flights that will provide new market avenues via alternate trade routes for high-value and perishable cargo. A permanent When the governments of India and Pakistan resume talks, these economic interventions and other perishable cargo center at Amritsar airport could turn Amritsar into a AIR favourable developments, such as the opening of the Kartarpur corridor, can help generate momentum hub for movement of perishables by air and cater to the requirement of Freighting for an overall re-engagement process between the two countries, providing impetus to trade, bridging air freighting of perishables in northern India. the trust deficit, and thereby fostering peace.

Exploring new market linkages by sea and by air, for example, with Central Asia, by connecting traders in Amritsar with relevant Exploring new consolidators (given the small trade volumes for most of the traders in Amritsar). This will help traders remain in trade and MARKET related sectors. When the India-Pakistan trade resumes in future, it will be relatively easier for them to continue the trade LINKAGES relationship across the border, and the option of alternate markets will help mitigate the risk of similar political and economic disruptions in future.

72 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Surviving the unilateral decisions and bilateral losses 73 When the governments of India and Pakistan decide to begin talks over trade, the following measures will be key to re-strategizing and re-initiating the trade between India and Pakistan, as well as the Cross-LoC trade:

India-Pakistan Trade Cross-LoC Trade

Re-initiating the dialogue on economic cooperation by: Enhancing transparency in standard operating • Increasing stakeholder constituency through multi-level procedure by: interactions and engagements with decision makers, • Mutually agreeing on tradeable items based policy influencers and other concerned parties on HS code • Addressing knowledge gaps and building capacities of • Establishing a trader registration policy, and key stakeholders constituting a monitoring cell for registration • Facilitating a joint business chamber for promoting and and verification of traders, in order to ensure creating a positive ecosystem for bilateral trade credibility of merchants involved • Promoting product-specific collaborations between • Digitizing barter management, wherein business associations and chambers of commerce (for transactions against each trader/invoice are example, between Surgical Instruments Manufacturing recorded digitally Association of Pakistan, in Sialkot and Association of • Setting a base price for commodities in order to Surgical Instruments Manufacturers and Suppliers in address concerns around under-invoicing Jalandhar) • Capacity building of traders in terms of • Developing an online portal (an interactive business-to- accounting practices, documentation, taxation business (B2B) platform) that will facilitate cross-border and use of digital platforms traders and association-level interactions • Formally announcing prevailing currency • Increasingly tapping the soft power afforded by people- conversion rates between INR and PKR on a to-people connections through platforms like Lifestyle regular basis Pakistan – Pakistan’s first-ever lifestyle exhibition in • Clarifying goods and service tax rates, and India in 2012 and PITEX – annual Punjab International Annexures inter-state taxation to avoid tax evasion Trade Exposition Concerns over transparency have negatively Overall, a policy framework on trade between India impacted cross-LoC trade over the last decade. and Pakistan is key for addressing their trust deficit and These need to be addressed across the ecosystem misapprehensions—on an economic front; non-tariff of trade, to strenghthen this barter to be more barriers; anti-dumping complaints; lack of connectivity; transparent and organized. This could continue to technical and operational knowledge gaps; and limited prove the merits of a peace-through-trade policy. direct interaction.

Given the zero duty nature of barter trade across the LoC, concerted efforts between traders at LoC and in Punjab are needed to dispel any misapprehensions around distorted gains or losses for either trade community. Building linkages between traders in Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir, to explore stopgap arrangements for survival is important. After trade restarts, establishing common ground between cross- LoC traders and mainstream India-Pakistan traders will be key for both trades to cordially co-exist.

Continued economic interventions can help generate momentum for an overall re-engagement process, providing impetus to trade while bridging the trust deficit.

74 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses The Story of India-Pakistan Trade: An Interplay between Politics and Economics 75 Annexure - A Media Series on Trade

The Hindu, 4 September 2019 The Hindu, 21 October 2019

76 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 77 Annexure - B Snakes and Ladders of India-Pakistan Relations Years Positive Developments Negative Developments

• Pakistan increased its positive list to 1075 items. Years Positive Developments Negative Developments • Bus service from Lahore to Amritsar began, making it the third bus service connecting India and Pakistan; ‘The Thar Express’ between Munabao in Rajasthan and Khokhrapar • India and Pakistan entered into 14 bilateral agreements related to trade facilitation; in Sind resumed after 40 years; The night bus service from border areas of Ferozepur Multiple land routes were used for trade – including eight customs stations in Punjab and Fazilka to Ludhiana-Chandigarh in Punjab, which had been discontinued during province and three custom checkposts in Sindh the days of militancy, resumed; and Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus service flagged off 1947-65 2005- 06 • In 1965, there were nine branches of six Indian banks operating in Pakistan. Habib • During the third round of Composite Dialogue process discussions in March 2006, both Bank of Pakistan had a branch in Mumbai countries agreed to discuss the new shipping protocol, the deregulation of air services, the joint registration of basmati rice, an increase in the size of Pakistan’s positive list, 1965 war: Customs officers at Wagah-Attari post became the first civilian prisoners of proposals for information-technology-related medical services and export insurance 1965 war, and banks in both countries were seized as enemy properties by India, and work on a memorandum of understanding for cooperation in capital markets by Pakistan.

• Negative perception, due to the • 2 Jammu and Kashmir Roundtables in New • Samjhauta Express bombings • Simla Agreement 1972 non tariff barriers, was created. This happened as Pakistan Delhi and Srinagar 1971-1999 • India unilaterally discontinued its positive list for started to export more product 2006- 07 • India and Pakistan signed a revised shipping trade in goods with Pakistan, upon signing of WTO categories after India removed protocol that removed restrictions on lifting agreement in 1995. the condition of trading on third country cargo, in place since 1975. positive list.

• Agra Summit collapsed, Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly car bombing, attack on • Wagah-Attari truck movement - the first overland truck route between India and Pakistan 2001- 02 Indian Parliament and suspension of the Delhi-Lahore bus services (Sada-e-Sarhad) opened in 60 years. Indian and Pakistani trucks were allowed to unload cargo on each 2007- 08 other’s territory • India deployed its troops to Kashmir and Punjab, the largest mobilisation since 1971 • India and Pakistan signed an agreement allowing regular contact between India’s Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) and Pakistan’s Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS). • India and Pakistan declared ceasefire along the • Jammu and Kashmir State 2003- 04 LoC Assembly passed resolution for abrogation of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960 • India joined a framework agreement between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan on a USD 7.6 billion gas pipeline project. • Bilateral meeting at the sideline of SAARC Summit in Islamabad • Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Indian • Positive list by Pakistan expanded from 600 items in 2000 to 767 items Prime Minister Manmohan Singh formally announced the opening of several trade routes • Foreign Ministers meet at the ASEAN Regional forum in Jakarta where Pakistan is between the two countries: Wagah-Atari road formally accepted as a member of the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) after India drops its link, Khokrapar-Munnabao rail link, as well as 2004- 05 objections 2008- 09 cross-LoC Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and Poonch- • Mumbai attacks of 2008 • 4 rounds of ‘Composite Dialogue Process (2004 in Islamabad, 2005 in New Delhi, Rawalakot roads 2006 in Islamabad, and 2007 in New Delhi)’; Foreign Secretary level talks on Kashmir • Cross-LoC trade commenced, limited to 21 items issue, development of peace and security (regular hot talk between DGMOs and and two days a week military maneuvers); cross-LoC bus from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad was agreed upon; • Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of Musharraf 4-point agenda on Kashmir Pakistan permitted the Commerce Ministry to increase the number of items traded between • Wagah Attari land route opened for limited commodities in 2005, 58 years after its the two countries from then 1938 in a phased closure during partition manner; trade through the road link restricted to • India appoints Satinder Lambah to lead secret back-channel talks with Pakistan’s Tariq 14 items. Aziz, resulting in a framework to settle the differences over the Kashmir region by 2007 2005- 06 • As a confidence building measure between India and Pakistan, bus service from • Positive list increased to 1934 items; Pakistan • Indian Prime Minister Srinagar to Muzaffarabad started lifted the ban on importing diesel from India but Manmohan Singh ruled • Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan 2009- 10 did not allow import of petrol. out the resumption of the signed an agreement to open branches of two Indian banks in Pakistan, and two Pakistani Composite Dialogue Process. banks in India.

78 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 79 Years Positive Developments Negative Developments Years Positive Developments Negative Developments

• Afghanistan and Pakistan signed an amended transit trade agreement, the • Exhibition ‘Lifestyle Pakistan’ in India in April, • Pakistani government Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). It allows Afghanistan products where Pakistan’s commerce minister was announced that it could not to be exported to India through Pakistan via the land route. However, the APTTA does accompanied by a trade mission of more than 100 conclude an oil trade deal with 2010- 11 not allow India’s exports to Afghanistan through Pakistan. businessmen India. • Composite Dialogue resumed; Indian Prime Minister invited his Pakistani counterpart • India officially overturned its ban on foreign • After Pakistan removed to watch the World Cup semi-final in Mohali, India. investment from Pakistan, except for defense, agricultural goods from its space, and atomic energy negative list, farmers – a large component of Pakistan’s • The 5th round of India -Pakistan Commerce Secretary level talks took place in • India and Pakistan signed visa agreement labour force – threatened Islamabad, establishing a working group dedicated to addressing and resolving easing travel restrictions for businessmen and to block agricultural imports sector-specific barriers to trade. It was decided that Pakistan would remove its introducing a new category of group tourism. The from India. restrictions on trade by land route as soon as the infrastructure in Wagah was ready. 2012- 13 Foreign Ministers also expanded cross-LoC CBMs The scope of cooperation was expanded to include electricity, petroleum, cotton to allow travel for tourism and pilgrimage seeds, banking, visas, railways, and the integration of chambers. More importantly, the joint statement mentioned that the granting of MFN status to India would help • Pakistan abolished its positive list of 2000 items increase bilateral trade. and replaced it with negative list of about 1209 goods • Customs Liaison Border Committee (CLBC) was setup. It was decided to set up a telephone hotline at Attari International Railway station for improved communication. • New Delhi removed a ban on Pakistani businesses setting up operations inside India • Anand Sharma, Indian Minister for Commerce and Industry, invited his Pakistani counterpart to New Delhi. This was the first visit by a commerce minister from • Islamabad announced new measures to boost Pakistan to India in 35 years. The major outcome of this visit was the political capacity on its side of the Attari-Wagah border, ownership of the trade normalization process. The two ministers agreed to: full including the installation of additional scanners normalization of trade relations, dismantling of NTBs, full implementation of and weighbridges, and the deployment of more obligations under SAFTA customs officials • To allay the fears of Pakistani exporters, interactive sessions were arranged between Indian import regulators and private sector companies. The first one was held in New • Commerce Ministers agreed to establish • Indian Commerce Minister 2011- 12 Delhi on September 29, 2011. reciprocal Non-Discriminatory Market Access Anand Sharma scheduled (NDMA), January 2014 to be present at the • Pakistan approved Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status for India as part of a plan to inauguration of India Show normalise bilateral trade with India. During the 6th Round of Commerce Secretary • India Show held in Lahore to promote Indian in Lahore, cancelled his visit Level Talks in November 2011 at New Delhi, both countries agreed to develop products in Pakistan, February 2014 on the ground that Pakistan mechanisms to address issues of Non-Tariff Barriers. The two countries initialed three • Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif joined had not responded to New agreements i.e., Customs Cooperation Agreement, Mutual Recognition Agreement swearing in ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Delhi’s letter on expeditious and Redressal of Trade Grievances Agreement. The sequencing of trade normalization 2014- 15 Narendra Modi. Both held talks expressing implementation of its was chalked out, and it was decided that following a move to a negative list by willingness to begin a new era of bilateral concerns, including NDMA, February 2012, the negative list would ultimately be phased out by the end of 2012. relations. February 2014 • Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced his intention to move toward • Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar and his • India cancelled talks with a Preferential Trade Agreement with Pakistan under SAFTA that will lead to zero Pakistani counterpart Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry Pakistan’s foreign minister customs duty on all traded goods by 2016 met for foreign secretary-level talks. after the Pakistani high • The 6th SAFTA ministerial meeting was held in February 2012. This coincided with commissioner in India met the holding of the “Made in India” exhibition in Lahore, where large numbers of with separatist leaders from Indian exhibitors participated. At about the same time, following an invitation from J&K his Pakistani counterpart, the Indian commerce minister—along with a business delegation—visited Pakistan from February 13–16, 2012. This marked the first-ever • Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan met for • NSA level talks in Delhi visit by an Indian commerce minister to Pakistan. The announcement of a switch-over diplomatic talks in Ufa, Russia; they decided cancelled after the Pakistan from a positive to a negative list was to be made during this visit. to hold NSA-level talks and Narendra Modi High Commission in India accepted the invitation to visit Pakistan for the insisted on inviting Hurriyat • During the Indian Commerce SAARC summit in 2016; Another meeting on leaders for a reception in • ICP Attari inaugurated jointly by the Union Minister’s visit to Pakistan, the sidelines of the CoP21 meeting in Paris, Home Minister of India and Chief Minister of honor of Pakistan NSA announcement from positive to signaling an attempt to normalize relations Punjab. Pakistan agreed to remove its present negative list not made by Pakistan. 2015- 16 • On Eid, Pakistani troopers restriction on the number of commodities • Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj 2012- 13 However, the two ministers agreed refused to accept sweets from traded by land route through Wagah, once that when Pakistan notifies its joined Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad their Indian counterparts the construction of new infrastructure is negative list, India would reduce its and expressed Indian willingness to join at the Wagah-Attari border, completed. sensitive list, per SAFTA strictures, Afghanistan-Pakistan trade and transit breaking tradition. February 2012 agreement

80 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 81 Years Positive Developments Negative Developments Annexure - C Brainstorming with Stakeholders

• Indian Prime Minister made a surprise visit to • Attack in Gurdaspur and on Lahore on Pakistan Prime Minister’s birthday Pathankot Air Force Station and wedding of his grand-daughter in Punjab in India Location Category Details 2015- 16 • India and Pakistan extended agreement related to rail communication until January Dry Date Importers 2019 in respect of both goods and passenger Cement Importers traffic; and extended maritime cooperation Gypsum Importers memorandum of understanding for five years Rock Salt Importers Stakeholder Groups Customs House Agents (CHAs) Amritsar Attari Truck Union • Attack in Uri in Jammu and Kashmir in India Dhaba Owners in Attari Fuel Stations in Attari and Chidden 2016- 17 • 19th SAARC Summit to be held in Islamabad got cancelled after Uri attacks, Mechanics and Parking Managers, Attari leading to indefinite postponement of the summit Market Survey Majith Mandi • Attack in Pulwama in Jammu Traders in Uri • Prime Minister Imran Khan laid the foundation and Kashmir Jammu & Kashmir Stakeholder Groups 2018- 19 stone for the Kartarpur Corridor linking Darbar Traders in Poonch • MFN Withdrawal and Sahib with Dera Baba Nanak Customs duty hike to 200% Indian Importers Chambers of Commerce & by India Chambers Industry (IICCI) • Balakot air strikes followed Delhi by airspace closure by Khari Baoli Market Survey Pakistan and subsequently, INA Market by India Chambers Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) • Suspension of cross-LoC Indore trade by India Siyaganj Market Market Survey • After complete trade ban in August, Pakistan Choithram Mandi 2019-20 allowed trade of life saving drugs with India • Suspension of bilateral trade by Pakistan post • Inauguration of Kartarpur corridor Textile Importers the Jammu and Kashmir Stakeholder Groups Reorganization Bill Gem & Jewelry Exporters

Hyderabad Madina Market Lakdi ka Pul Market Market Survey Afzal Gunj Abids Commercial Centre

Stakeholder Groups Customs House Agents (CHAs) Mumbai Crawford Market Market Survey Mohammed Ali Road

82 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 83 India-Pakistan Trade (Month-on-Month Comparison HS Code Commodity Apr, 2018 Apr, 2019 Annexure - D between 2018 and 2019) 25010020 Rock Salt 0.27 0.15

India’s Imports from Pakistan (Month-on-Month) USD million 22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth 0.11 0.12

HS Code Commodity Feb, 2018 Feb, 2019 52094200 Denim 0.7 0.07

25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 6.87 3.78 61046200 Trsrs,Bibs,Brc Ovrlls,Brchs,Shrts Of Cotn - 0.06

8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 7.68 3.24 28352690 Other Calcium Phosphate 0.04 0.06

9109914 Ajwan Seed (Bishop Seed) 0.16 0.99 25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 6.68 - Othr Resdus Of Petrlm Oils/Of Oils Obtained From Bitumi- 27139000 - 0.71 nous Minerals 8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 5.19 - 63109010 Woollen Rags 1.01 0.55 26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 2.38 - 63109040 Synthetic Rags 0.77 0.42 Other Petroleum Oils And Oils Obtaine Frombituminous 27101990 2.27 - 41044900 Other Grain Of Bovine In Dry State (Crust) 0.63 0.36 Minerals Nes 25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 2.15 - 26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 1.82 0.19

25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 1.78 0.8 Monthly Total 31.76 2.61

41071900 Other Whole Hids/Skins 1.28 0.02

Monthly Total 33.47 18.56 HS Code Commodity May, 2018 May, 2019

12074090 Other Sesamum Seeds W/N Broken - 0.43 HS Code Commodity Mar, 2018 Mar, 2019 62159010 Ties,Bow Ties And Cravats Of Cotton - 0.41 52094200 Denim 0.18 0.57

63109010 Woollen Rags 0.79 0.32 52094200 Denim 0.46 0.17

61046200 Trsrs,Bibs,Brc Ovrlls,Brchs,Shrts Of Cotn 0.01 0.14 22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth 0.2 0.16

63109010 Synthetic Rags 0.61 0.14 25010020 Rock Salt 0.24 0.12

25010020 Rock Salt 0.33 0.08 25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 6.03 - 22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth 0.17 0.1 8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 5.32 - 25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 7.26 - 26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 3.25 - 8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 6.05 - 25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 2.45 - 26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 2.53 -

25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 2.36 - 41071900 Other Whole Hids/Skins 1.25 -

Monthly Total 34.61 2.84 Monthly Total 33.43 3.33

84 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 85 HS Code Commodity June, 2018 June, 2019 HS Code Commodity Aug, 2018 Aug, 2019

52094200 Denim 0.4 0.53 8023100 Walnuts Frsh Or Dried In Shell 0.06 0.21

25010020 Rock Salt 0.28 0.17 25010020 Rock Salt 0.23 0.11

22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth 0.1 0.16 8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 17.01 0.05

60063200 Othr Knitd Or Crochetd Fbrcs Of Syn Fibrs, Dyed - 0.07 29329900 Other Heterocyclic Compnds With Oxygen Hetero - Atom/S) - 0.03

8023100 Walnuts Frsh Or Dried In Shell - 0.05 52094200 Denim 0.3 0.03

25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 5.69 - 22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth 0.15 0.1

8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 4.87 - 25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 5.21 -

26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 1.55 - 26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 1.46 -

25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 1.54 - 28362020 Disodium Carbonate Light 0.96 -

Waste,Parings And Scrap Of Rubr(Besides Hardrubr) And 28362020 Disodium Carbonate Light 0.84 - 40040000 0.92 - Pwdr 9 Grnls Obtained Therefrom

Monthly Total 41.79 1.20 Monthly Total 66.49 1.46

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

HS Code Commodity July, 2018 July, 2019

52094200 Denim 0.28 1.01

25010020 Rock Salt 0.25 0.27

38089199 Other Insecticide Nes - 0.12

22072000 Ethyl Alchl And Othr Spirits Denaturd Of Anystrungth - 0.1

13019039 Other Gum Resins 0.07 0.05

25232910 Ordinary Portland Cement, Dry 5.12 -

8041030 Dry Dates Hard (Chhohara Or Kharek) 2.52 -

26060090 Other Aluminium Ores And Concentrates 1.53 -

25201010 Natural Gypsum And Anhydrite 1.11 -

63109010 Woollen Rags 0.84 -

Monthly Total 43.83 2.85

86 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 87 India’s Exports to Pakistan (Month-on-Month) USD million HS Code Commodity Apr, 2018 Apr, 2019

29024300 P-Xylene 23.58 50.56 HS Code Commodity Feb, 2018 Feb, 2019 Indian Cotton Of Staple Length 28.5mm (1.4/32) And Above 52010015 70.5 21.13 52052410 Grey2401 4.21 6.57 But Below 34.5mm

52052410 Grey2401 6.75 5.16 73082011 T0wers For Transmissi0n Line W/N Assembled - 4.28

29173600 Terephthalic Acid And Its Salts 2.86 4.69 76141000 Stranded Wire,Cbls Etc Wth Steel Core - 4.24

39021000 Polypropylene 9.03 2.48 29024100 O-Xylene 1.91 4.08

39011010 Linear L0w Density P0lyethylene (Lldpe) 0.94 2.34 17019990 Othr Refnd Sugar Includng Centrifugal Sugr 0 3.52

10071000 Seed 1.79 2.19 72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 4.87 3.36

Other Seeds Of Cummin Excl. Black; Neither Crushed Nor 72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 4.87 1.88 9093129 4.85 3.05 Ground

12099190 Vegetable Seeds For Planting N.E.S. 2.53 1.4 10071000 Seed 2.28 1.98

54072090 Othr Wven Fbrcs From Strip/The Like 0.16 1.55 29214290 Other Amino Sulphonic Aniline Etc Nes 2.12 0.96

29024300 P-Xylene 15.01 - Monthly Total 202.73 177.68

Monthly Total 222.49 126.49

Commodity May, 2018 May, 2019 HS Code Commodity Mar, 2018 Mar, 2019 HS Code

29024300 P-Xylene 15.38 27.73 29024300 P-Xylene 20.91 10.59

Indian Cotton Of Staple Length 28.5mm (1.4/32) And Above 52010015 64.16 13.87 84452013 Cotton Spinning Ring Frames 0.19 5.95 But Below 34.5mm

84452013 Cotton Spinning Ring Frames 2.82 5.15 39021000 Polypropylene 3.5 5.9

39021000 Polypropylene 3.11 4.73 17019990 Othr Refnd Sugar Includng Centrifugal Sugr - 5.7

52052410 Grey2401 5.84 4.28 52052410 Grey2401 4.22 4.9 Indian Cotton Of Staple Length 28.5mm (1.4/32) And Above 52010015 42.23 3.91 10051000 Maize Seed 2.27 4.07 But Below 34.5mm Other Seeds Of Cummin Excl. Black; Neither Crushed Nor 9093129 3.14 3.63 72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 6.15 1.74 Ground Other Seeds Of Cummin Excl. Black; Neither Crushed Nor 9093129 5.01 1.59 72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 4.77 2.22 Ground

30022029 Other Mixed Vaccine 4.04 0.01 29024100 O-Xylene 4.42 1.73

7132000 Chickpeas (Garbanzos) Dried And Shld 9.01 - 10051000 Maize Seed 4.23 1.33

Monthly Total 251.54 171.34 Monthly Total 62.24 58.67

88 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 89 HS Code Commodity June, 2018 June, 2019 HS Code Commodity Aug, 2018 Aug, 2019

29024300 P-Xylene 10.67 12.22 29024300 P-Xylene 12.84 11.59

17019990 Othr Refnd Sugar Includng Centrifugal Sugr 0 10.2 39021000 Polypropylene 2.55 4.57

52052410 Grey2401 4.15 4.01 73082011 T0wers For Transmissi0n Line W/N Assembled - 4.15

Indian Cotton Of Staple Length 28.5mm (1.4/32) And Above 39021000 Polypropylene 8.78 3.16 52010015 10.1 2.03 But Below 34.5mm

52051310 Grey 2.04 2.86 27101950 Fuel Oil 1.85 1.79

30022029 Other Mixed Vaccine 0.6 2.71 72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 2.48 1.51

72023000 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 2.72 2.05 52051310 Grey 4.92 1.04

Other Seeds Of Cummin Excl. Black; Neither Crushed Nor 9093129 3.2 0.89 52052410 Grey2401 6.45 0.57 Ground

63079090 Othr Made Up Artcls Othr Thn Cotton 2.71 0.06 29214290 Other Amino Sulphonic Aniline Etc Nes 3.23 0.19

29173600 Terephthalic Acid And Its Salts 4.37 - 30022019 Other Single Vaccine 5.35 -

Monthly Total 164.97 126.39 Monthly Total 155.73 52.32

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

HS Code Commodity July, 2018 July, 2019

29024300 P-Xylene 23.18 30.54

17019990 Othr Refnd Sugar Includng Centrifugal Sugr - 3.67

54072030 Dyed Wven Fbrcs From Strip/The Like 0.12 3.54

52052410 Grey2401 4.48 2.86

84452013 Cotton Spinning Ring Frames 0.55 2.77

39021000 Polypropylene 2.16 2.69

29024100 O-Xylene 4.49 2.52

30022029 Other Mixed Vaccine 5.17 0.62

Indian Cotton Of Staple Length 28.5mm (1.4/32) And Above 52010015 6.54 0.45 But Below 34.5mm

29173600 Terephthalic Acid And Its Salts 7.6 -

Monthly Total 156.27 120.71

90 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 91 Cross-LoC Trade, by Value, 2008-19 (in USD mn) Annexure - E Volumes Speak: LoC Trade Year Salamabad, Uri Chakan-da-Bagh, Poonch Exchange Rate

Trade Trade Trade Trade Total USD/ USD/ Total Total Cross-LoC Trade, by Value 2008-19 In Out In Out Yearly INR47 PKR48 2008-09 0.33 0.30 0.62 0.07 0.08 0.15 0.77 45.93 75.61 Salamabad, Uri Chakan-da-Bagh, Poonch 2009-10 11.12 15.14 26.25 14.63 14.39 29.02 55.27 47.44 83.12

Year Trade In PKR Trade Out INR Trade In PKR Trade Out INR 2010- 11 30.47 34.34 64.82 20.38 20.40 40.78 105.60 45.56 85.46 2011- 12 46.23 50.99 97.22 14.19 15.63 29.82 127.03 47.92 88.2 2008-09 2,46,00,000 1,36,25,000 54,63,545 34,51,486 2012- 13 59.13 59.69 118.82 9.49 8.82 18.31 137.13 54.4 95.85 2013-14 39.39 45.02 84.41 10.53 12.43 22.96 107.37 60.5 102.89 2009-10 92,41,49,000 71,80,46,000 1,21,62,67,025 68,24,76,513 2014-15 60.59 61.79 122.38 19.81 21.44 41.25 163.63 61.14 100.87 2010- 11 2,60,43,39,000 1,56,47,56,000 1,74,16,82,975 92,92,56,112 2015-16 62.69 81.33 144.01 19.32 16.53 35.84 179.86 65.46 103.94 2016-17 56.91 54.37 111.28 25.03 24.34 49.38 160.66 67 104.73 2011- 12 4,07,72,28,000 2,44,35,43,000 1,25,13,88,511 74,88,43,111 2017-18 47.41 63.12 110.52 9.38 17.06 26.44 136.96 64.63 108.1

2012- 13 5,66,74,89,000 3,24,72,51,000 91,00,39,104 47,96,73,394 2018-19 34.13 46.26 80.39 4.85 10.69 15.54 95.92 69.85 130.61 Total 448.38 512.34 960.73 85.7 89.27 309.47 1,270.20

2013-14 4,05,26,95,000 2,72,38,84,000 1,08,35,25,075 75,20,43,792 Source: Data Collected from Trade Facilitation Centres, Uri and Poonch, 2019

2014-15 6,11,19,82,000 3,77,75,50,000 1,99,81,37,421 1,31,07,68,404 Number of Trucks crossed for Cross-LoC Trade, 2008-19

2015-16 6,51,57,29,000 5,32,36,51,000 2,00,78,14,534 1,08,17,44,092 Year Salamabad, Uri Chakan-da-Bagh, Poonch Total Yearly

Number of Number of Number of Number of 2016-17 5,95,98,61,000 3,64,30,72,000 2,62,18,56,217 1,63,08,64,325 trucks for trucks for Total trucks for trucks for Total trade-out trade-in trade-out trade-in 2017-18 5,12,46,00,000 4,07,91,90,000 1,01,40,24,122 1,10,23,46,775 2008-09 180 219 399 42 23 65 464 2009-10 1,830 2,662 4,492 1,492 1,560 3,052 7,544 2018-19 4,45,73,60,000 3,23,11,33,000 63,38,99,283 74,64,30,997 2010- 11 3,650 2,413 6,063 1,836 1,626 3,462 9,525

Total 45,52,00,32,000 30,76,57,01,000 14,48,40,97,812 9,46,78,99,001 2011- 12 4,406 2,960 7,366 2,020 1,255 3,275 10,641 2012- 13 7,519 4,119 11,638 1,514 905 2,419 14,057 Source: Data Collected from Trade Facilitation Centres, Uri and Poonch, 2019 2013-14 5,152 3,299 8,451 2,151 1,231 3,382 11,833 2014-15 5,476 2,458 7,934 3,675 1,296 4,971 12,905 2015-16 4,323 2,179 6,502 3,220 1,063 4,283 10,785 2016-17 4,726 2,653 7,379 3,418 1,682 5,100 12,479 2017-18 5,193 2,539 7,732 2,770 999 3,769 11,501 2018-19 3,912 3,251 7,163 1,494 722 2,216 9,379 TOTAL 46,367 28,752 75,119 23,632 12,362 35,994 1,11,113

Source: Data Collected from Trade Facilitation Centres, Uri and Poonch, 2019

47 Source: Reserve Bank of India 48 Source: USD PKR Historical Data, www.investing.com

92 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 93 List of Product Categories Allowed to be Traded Across the LoC Top Products Actually Traded across the LoC (2018-19)

S. No Trade-In Products (to Uri/Poonch) Trade-Out Products (from Uri/Poonch) S. No Trade-In Products Trade-Out Products

To Uri To Poonch From Uri From Poonch 1 Rice Carpets Kinnow (Mandarin 1 Hard-shelled Almond Banana Jeera (Cumin) 2 Jahnamaz and Tusbies Rugs hybrid)

2 Mango Medicinal Herbs Jeera (Cumin) Imli (Tamarind) 3 Precious stones Wall hangings 3 Medicinal Herb Walnut Chilli flakes Banana 4 Gabbas Shawls and stoles 4 Walnuts Embroidered items Grapes 5 Namdas Namdas Almond Giri (Kernel) 5 Dates Pineapple & Almond 6 Peshawari leather chappals Gabbas Seasonal Fruits and 6 Pista (Pistachio) Vegetables 7 Medicinal herbs Embroidered items including crewels Source: Direct Interaction with traders in Uri and Poonch, 2019 8 Maize and maize products Furniture including walnut furniture

9 Fresh fruits and vegetables Wooden handicrafts Number of Registered Traders (2018-19)

10 Dry fruits including walnuts Fresh fruits and Vegetables TFC Number of Registered Traders

11 Honey Dry fruits including walnuts Chakothi (Muzaffarabad) 120

12 Moongi Saffron Tatrinote (Rawalakot) 350

13 Imli Aromatic Plants Salamabad (Uri) 230

14 Black Mushrooms Fruit bearing plants Poonch 380

Source: Direct Interaction with traders in Uri and Poonch, 2019 15 Furniture including walnut furniture Dania, moongi, imli and black mushrooms

16 Wooden handicrafts Kashmiri spices

17 Carpets and rugs Rajmah

18 Wall hangings Honey

19 Embroidered items Papier mache products

Spring, Rubberised coir/foam mattresses, 20 Foam mattresses, cushions and pillows cushions, pillows and quilts

21 Shawls and stoles Medicinal herbs

Source: Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi, India

94 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 95 Mangal Sakatar Sawinder Massa Lovejit Vagir Sukhdev Baljinder Paramjit Ranjit Satnam Karaj Struggling to Survive: Individuals and Baj Singh Annexure - F Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Families in Amritsar Nirmal Balwant Gurcha- Sham Avtar Sukhdev Jagtar Dilbag Mangal Sawinder Pargat Dalbir Prem Singh Singh ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

PORTERS Lakh- Sinda Ram Roshan Amrik Paramjit Captain Kashmir Jasbir Kuldip Surjit Balwind- Rajinder winder Sukh- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Bikramjit Jaspal Rajinder Sajjan Sukhwant Saab Lakhbir Ranjit Gulzar Dilbagh Gurmit Jasbir Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Bitta Balwinder Kartar Tara Davinder Amrik Resam Satnam Nishan Desa Arjan Malkeet Mukhatar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gain Tarsem Major Sahab Balbir Gurbhej Sukhwant Balbir Kashmir Baldev Tarlok Buta Amarjit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gurpal Major Gurvel Jaspal Rubinder Jaspal Balbir Balwind- Sawinder Paramjit Kashmir Shamsh- Sukho Sukh- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Chand er Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Ranjit Major Sukhdev Sukhdev Major Malkit Harpreet Major Sawinder Amarjit Partap Kuldeep chain Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Jassa Ravinder Surjit Sandeep Jaspal Mahil Paramjit Chanan Chand Resham Mukhtiar Balwind- Jagraj Par- Lakh- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Samser Anokh Ladi Satnam Shinder Rinku Balwind- Karnail Hardev Samma shotam Varinder winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Manga Surjit Major Satnam Lakhwind- Karnail Kashmir Baldev Puran Manjit Pargat Sardul Satpal Rach- Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Resham Sukhchain Fagan Heera Sahab Dharm Kulwant Dharam Prem Sukhdev Balwind- Harpal pinder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Gurcha- Hardev Prem Guljar Gurpal Jasbir Sawinder Baljinder Mewa Balwind- Resham Sajjan Jagtar ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Nirvail Jaimalsin- Baldev Samail Baldhir Balbir Sawinder Jatinder Sawan Kulwind- Gurpeet Sukhram Raju Singh gh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Sukh- Ranjit Hardeep Balkar Sherbir Harjeet Kashmir Bikramjit Paramjit Balwind- Sahab Sandha winder Baj Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Surjit Surjit Gurmeet Dilbagh Sukha Kashmir Dalbir Malkit Tarsem Manohar Karamjit Sarwan Gurdev Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Karaj Shukhraj Surjit Deepu Kuldeep Guljar Jagjit Kashmir Gurmit Sarwan Mohan Hardev Raj Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Harjit Malkit Vinay Raju Partap Surjit Rajinder Jatinder Balwind- Mukhtiar Balwind- Resham Narinjan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Ranjit Kanwalpal Mukhtar Kulwind- Sonu Karamjit Malkiat Shamsh- Mukhtar Baljit Ravail Davinder Maninder Sukh- Sakh- Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Iqbal Harjit Mukha Bikramjit Jagmohan Ranjit Arwinder Bakshish Jagtar Balwind- Sarwan winder winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Rajinder Manga Sarwan Prem Satpal Mukhtiar Ranjit Malkeet Manjit Paramjit Jagjit Shamsh- Malkeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Sukhdev Gurmukh Harvin- Ranjit Jagtar Pargat Mohinder Gurpreet Sulakhan Subeg Sukhdev Surjit Balwinder Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Avtar Butta Kuldeep Gurdeep Ajaypal Kewal Nayab Pargat Bhola Tarsem Gurbaksh Rajinder Suba Sukh- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Dalbir Tarlok Sawinder Harjinder Varyam Jaspal Buta Gurpeet Paramjit Harjit Sham winder Bunty Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Harpreet Pargat Amrik Satnam Jugraj Kuldip Mangal Sucha Anoop Satnam Raspal Ravi Raju Singh Sukh- Love- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sardool Mangal Pargat Angrej Joginder Jagir Harpal Mehar Hardeep Hardev Sahib winder preet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Chand Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sukh- Raman- Shamsh- Gurpal Sarwan Sarwan Manjinder Gurpreet Resham Dharam Santokh Satnam Sandeep winder deep er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Jaspal Partap Tarsem Gurdip Charanjit Major Sukhwant Kuldeep Dayal Hardeep Rajinder Subeg Diyal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kaka Harpal Rajpreet Gurjit Balwind- Jaspal Karam Gurmit Satnam Baljit Mukhtar Kewal Hardeep Jagtar Sukh- Love- Love- Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Dilbagh Jatinder Kashmir Kuldeep Inderjit Sukhdev Narinder- Rattan Hi`Ra Singh winder preet preet Pal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh pal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sukh- Harpal Davinder Kulwant Dilbagh Sukhwind- Ajaypal Uttam Loveleen Jaswant Manbir Tarsem Bitu Singh chain Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sawinder Baldev Sukhdev Sukhraj Balbeer Sandeep Kharak Sahib Baldev Amrik Sahib Sarbjit Vijay Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Makhan Jitender Nihal Joga Mandeep Nirvail Bhinder Bhagwan Balkar Kartar Tajinder Darshan Sukhdev Lakh- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Vasan Harjit Kala Nirmal Gulshan Mandeep Angrej Hira Sahib Kaptan Jaspal winder Lal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gur- Angrej Paramjit Jaswinder Surjit Sardul Resham Tarsem Jaswant Surjit Baljinder Beera bachan Sunny Gur- Vahe- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Jagjit Partap Puran Chanchal Sahib Harjinder Gurvail Kala Sukha Pargat Harpreet Singh bachan gurupal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Puran Iqbal Harwind- Harjit Kulwant Heera Malkeet Harjinder Grupreet Lakhbir Mintu Savinder Ninder Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Arunbir Sarmail Puran Gurdeep Balwinder Swaran Ninder Raval Karaj Gurdial Kulwind- Ram Amrik Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Jagmo- Hanspal Dalbir Jatinder Kashmir Kuldip Mhinder Gurmail Karaj Baldev Param- Gurdiyal Subeg han Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Singh Singh Jaswant Sahib Sarwan Sarmail Swaran Param- Balwinder Kuldip Gurjit Gurmukh Jagtar Balwind- Ranjit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Lakh- Jaspal Avtar Gurpeet Satnam Bakhsis Pargat Partap Jagtar Heera Sukhdev Buta Ajit Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

96 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 97 Sardool Lakhwind- Dilbagh Narinder Kuldeep Gurpreet Dilbagh Balwant Gurmej Lakha Daljit Sarwan Rachpal Jaswinder Jagbir Rashpal Satnam Dilbag Nirmal Rajwind- Balwind- Dalbir Tarsem Jodha Satnam Dial Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Gulzar Resham Hardeep Balwind- Sawinder Murad Rasal Anil Bakshish Kala Resham Avtar Captain Hardeep Avtar Kulwant Rashpal Arvinder Harpal Sham Gurvail Bau Kashmir Gurdev Bikramjit Mangal Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Balbir Avtar Ram Veer Hardev Sardar Bhupin- Charan Partap Balwind- Satnam Baljinder Harjinder Sawinder Balwant Desa Gurjant Bagicha Harpal Balkar Lakha Davinder Harmit Lakha Baj Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Har- Rajinder Jaimal Sukhdev Rajinder Amarjit Darshan Kuldip Sukhdev Baldev Janak Balwind- Kawaljit Harpreet Angrej Gurdeep Tarsem Balwind- Major Kabal Baldev Sukhdev Mejar Sarmail Bur Singh Ajit Singh mohan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Lakhpal Raju Saktar Ranjit Gurpreet Darshan Gurwind- Surjit Shinder Kabal Gurbaj Jasbir Baldev Resham Billa Sucha Sukhwind- Jagtar Bakshish Varinder Sukhraj Bhupin- Gurbhej Balraj chain Yousaf Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Pal Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Lakh- Sukh- Dilbag Sarwan Gurdev Maltoo Bittu Dalbir Resham Mukhtiar Kulwant Harchand Narinder Ram Tarsem Satnam Jaswinder Harjit Gurbir Sher Gurpal Mani Baldev jinder Sonu winder Ajit Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Tarlo- Gur- Sukhdev Jagdish Baljit Kulwinder Karanbir Kawaljeet Amrik Kunan Harmesh Balwind- Roshan Shinder Sukhdev Hardev Surjit Harbha- Balwinder Rachpal Dilbag Khazan Sonu Amanbir chan bachan Vir Singh Micheal Singh Singh Singh Kaur Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Sukha Harpreet Jaskaran Jaimal Sandeep Bhagwan Amarpal Daljit Balwind- Subash Sarwan Palwinder Chain Vijay Rajinder Jagir Jagjit Sukhdev Sukhdev Kulwant Amrik Kewal Gursahib Gurpreet Deera winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Hira Sukhmeet Avtar Sukhchain Kuldip Hardeep Surinder Kuldeep Joginder Dalbir Heera Partap Gurpreet Nirwal Gurmej Mejar Manjit Amrik Dilbag Sukhdev Gurpeet Harbans Puran Balkar Arun chain Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh

Manjit Mukesh Charan Jagdish Sarwan Gurnam Sakatar Partap Kirpal Varinder Inderjit Gursewak Nirmal Baldev Ashiq Angarej Sukhchain Beant Roshan Rajwind- Rachpal Gurpar- Rashpal Sarbjit Rasal Vir Singh Singh Kumar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Masih Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh tap Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Amarjit Kashmir Major Smran- Dalbir Punjab Gurbhej Jaskaran Harpreet Kulbir Dalbir Harkirtan Gurjinder Jaspreet Manga Dharm Sukhdev Parkash Dheera Satpal Sarwan Darshan Jaswant Sewa Happy winder Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kaur Singh Singh Singh

Aman- Sukh- Harpreet Jagir Talminder Talwind- Heera Major Balwind- Harpreet Manga Kartar Gurdayal Roshan Kashmir Avtar Balwind- Dharam Chanan Jeeuna Mandeep Dalbir Keptan Pardeep Joga deep winder Ajit Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Savinder Sukhmeet Satnam Harbha- Jagdeep Satnam Sawinder Sanmukh Jeewan Bakshish Dalbir Pargat Lakhwind- Ranjit Baljit Dharam Hardeep Gurwind- Gurmej Kashmir Nishan Satnam Jit Singh Ajit Singh Princepal winder Singh Singh Singh jan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Jeet Gurlal Harjinder Heera Daljit Buta Sukhdev Wasan Kawaljit Kuldip Rajwant Balkar Malkit Sujit Ranjit Sarbjit Jhirmal Gurdeep Gurcha- Amar Mukhatar Nishan Santokh Harjap Pamma Bir Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sngh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Kash- Sukh- Nishan Jaspal Balkar Harjeet Satnam Sukhwant Mangal Sarbjeet Dilbag Surjeet Balwinder Sukha Surinder Mahil Gursevak Sukhdev Arvinder Nika Chranjit Gurjit Mangat Gurnam Pal Singh winder meer winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Cham- Dhar- Sukh- Bhag- Ajaib Mangal Balkar Desa Sukhdev Sonu Jaswinder Gurbaj Major Girdhari Resham Paramjit Dilbagh Baldev Surjit Gurmeet Balbir Surjit Jasmail Gurdeep Sham deep kaur minder winder want Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Lal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Fateh Hardev Guravtar Balhar Rashpal Sujaan Shangara Mohan Rajbir Sucha Sarifa Satnam Harjinder Harpal Karamjit Mahal Harpreet Hardayal Jagdeep Roshan Gurlal Sahib Baljinder Prem Jagmohan chain Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Manupal Baldev Dalbir Sonu Sukhwant Gurdev Paramjit Buta Gurnam Sahib Gursewak Mukhtar Sukhdev Jagjit Harbha- Gurnam Gurbhej Harpreet Sarfraj Puran Ranjit Kashmir Salwant Manprit Ajay Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Mahabir Balwinder Kashmir Ranjit Jasbir Paramjit Sukha Mehal Sukhdev Bhupin- Pritam Harjinder Gurnam Sham Gurdev Gurlal Jagir Beant Gurnam Balwinder Mandeep Jagtar Sawinder Shamsh- Resham Surjit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh

Sukhdev Sham Ghulla Gurvel Lakhwind- Subeg Ranjit Dilbag Resham Jagir Aman Santokh Sham Sukhraj Darshan Sukhdev Kashmir Nirmal Darshan Karm Karamjit Gurdip Tarlok Kewal Kuldeep Gurdeep Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Sucha Gumej Balvat Santokh Jagtar Harinder Gurnam Baljit Balkar Mukhatar Tarsem Mukhtiar Gurbaj Daljit Partap Guriqbal Ranjit Satnam Maan Hardeep Gurwind- Wirsa Kashmir Dharam Sahib winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Man- Angrej Harjit Kartar Tarlok Dilbagh Niyamat Jagtar Jagtar Randeep Jaimal Juba mohan Lal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

98 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 99 Gur- Lakh- Sukha Amrik Santokh Satnam Balwinder Gurcha- Gurpreet Jaswinder Balkar Manpreet Kuldip Dalbir Gurdeep Jagtar Charanjit Buta Dharam Sawinder Sukhprit Gurditta Kashmir Gurjant baksish winder Ramesh Raj Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sinh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Judge Varinder Balkar Jasbir Manjit Dilbagh Prince Bachan Kasbir Jagir Kashmir Harjit Charanjit Jagir Amrik Tarsem Hardeep Rajwind- Ninder Ranjit Gurnam Rawinder Sukhdev Sukhdev Baljinder Pal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kaur Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Narinder Kuldip Kuldip Joginder Harpreet Ram Manjeet Jagdish Arjan Satnam Sarwan Hira Balwinder Parkash Jagir Sahib Satnam Avtar Dilbagh Dalip Kashmir Ranjit Roshan Wariyam Gurpreet Ajit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Sukh- Sukh- Lakh- Sukhdev Jaswant Satnam Jaspal Chuman Harjit Hardeep Nirvail Hira `Prem Balwind- Sakattar Gurjant Subag Subeg Dalbir Kuldeep Manpreet Davinder Balwind- Kashmir winder winder winder Raj Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Manjit Manjit Dilbagh Major Baljit Gurdev Jagdeep Tarsem Sukha Lakhbir Prem Rajbir Beer Jaspal Captain Mandeep Baljinder Balwinder Balwind- Santokh Gurmel Jugraj Balwind- Angrej Raj Singh Bir Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh

Bawa Surjit Swaran Dharam Beant Paramjit Jivan Dalbir Kashmir Gurbind- Tarsem Gurpal Gurdeep Satnam Jug Singh Sunny Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sherbir Karam Sormail Harjeet Parkash Jagir Kashmir Pargat Baldev Mangat Sarwan Gora Kabir Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sinh Singh Singh Singh Singh Source: Direct Interactions with Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC), ICP Attari

Darmind- Jaswant Dalbir Charan Labh Sawinder Harpeet Paramjit Balwind- Harpreet Gian Darshan Ajit Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh

Narinder Jodhbir Mukhatar Sonu Surta Surjit Bhagwan Kuldip Balwind- Raju Mhinder Sarabjit Hardev Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Swaraj Satnam Malkeet Paramjit Rattan Deep Satnam Heera Kashmir Sukhdev Dalbir Rakesh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh

Gurbhej Surta Satnam Resham Harbhajan Manga Mangal Gopi Satnam Baljinder Chanan Harbha- Hi`Ra Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jan Singh Singh

Gur- Sukh- Balwind- Dharam Sukhdev Resham Bittu Navinder Jagtar Jaswinder Dhira Jagir Jagjit bachan jinder er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukhdev Harjit Nirmal Mgra Mohan Ranjit Narinder Mangal Sindepal Sarbjit Jarnail Arshdeep Sucha Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Gurmej Gurprat- Gurvail Manjit Jaswant Bangler Jagir Gurmeet Sarabjeet Manjit Lovejit Sukhmeet Jastan Singh ap Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Thakar Gurjant Major Balwind- Sukhdev Sardool Harjinder Amarjit Kulwant Kulwant Santokh Balbir Manjit Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Ra- Joginder Jaswant Hardev Mohinder Sakhttar Baljit Dalbag Karmjeet Chranjit Tarsem Pargat Chhinda jandeep Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Lakh- Sukhdev Surmail Rana Kulwant Sawinder Basant Dilbag Gurcharn Ropi Jagir Gurmukh Shanker winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Manpreet Sukhdev Swaran Sarmukh Sarwan Madan Gurnam Shuba Golty Rajwind- Shinda Mukhtar winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sawaran Surjit Mangal Gurmej Baldev Rashpal Dalbir Ranbir Mangal Dalbir Karaj Mukhtar Paramjit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Gurlal Binder Anokh Hardeep Chand Palwind- Darshan Jagir Mandip Mangal Joginder Narinder Gurpal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Sukhdev Gurjeet Sahib Gurpreet Kuldip Ranjit Hardeep Kuldev Dilbagh Sukhdev Vipin Mitthan jinder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh

100 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 101 Akash- Davinder Jagwinder Satnam Ranjit Narvail Gurlal Harpreet Lovepreet Jasbir Kuldeep Roshan Jaspal HELPERS deep Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Akash- Lakh- Balkar Surjit Pargat Satnam Gurbinder Swaran Gurjit Daljit Pargat Sukhraj Balwinder Sukhchan Bikramjit Diwan Petar Jagtar Kuldeep Soni Nirmal Kabal Dilbag Partap Hardeep Kuldeep deep winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Parvej Akash- Gurmej Surjit Harpal Gurpreet Roshan Sandeep Sonu Kashmir Pritpal Jatinder Jobanjit Sukhdev Gurjant Gurjit Sukhraj Harpal Ranjit Savinder Manjit Gursahib Gurpreet Dilbagh Harpreet Singh Ajy Singh deep Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sona Singh Sukh- Dhar- Lovepreet Gurpal Sonu Sabeg Jagroop Karanjit Harpin- Baldev Harjit Harbansh Shamsher Jaspal Sartaj Jaswinder Ranjit Harwind- Gurmeet Jaspal Jatinder Gurvinder Harjinder Hardev Baou Ranjeet winder minder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Lakh- Sukh- Manga Raspal Satnam Hardev Harjinder Raghbir Angrej Jagroop Gurnis- Joginder Gurmukh Nishan Surjit Mandeep Gurjant Darbara Bhagwant Rakesh Raja Gurpreet Gurjeet Lakhbir Resham winder winder Soni Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh han Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Lakh- Ranjit Satnam Boharh Tarsem Daljit Sukhraj Suraj Sunny Mangal Kuldeep Manpreet Karambir Harpreet Naresh Gurjant Harpreet Jagdish Lovepreet Nishan Lovepreet Karma Pritpal Narinder Surrender Chand winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Aman- Malkeet Amarjit Baldev Manpreet Manipal Sakatar Raj Gurjeet Harbaj Heera Baldev Sandeep deep Sher Harjinder Harpreet Harman Paramjit Harjinder Bikramjit Ranjit Ajaypal Mangal Mejar Sawinder Davinder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Kumar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sukh- Buta Dilbagh Gurpreet Bagicha Balwinder Ranjit Jugraj Harpal Ranjit Sahab Raju Des Singh winder Nand Surjit Randeep Harpal Hardeep Rajvinder Bhagwan Sukhwant Lovepreet Gurcha- Sukhdev Balwinder Hardev Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Mahin- Nimal Ranjit Mandeep Jasbir Lovepreet Sukhbir Param- Sukhdev Judge Sawinder Nachatar Satnam derpal Sukhraj Pargat Amarjit Balwinder Harpal Major Savinder Rashpal Gurpar- Daljit Sahib Mandeep Palwinder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh tap Singh Singh Singh Singh Masih Man- Karaj Karam Roshan Karambir Harpreet Satnam Gurbind- Nishan Sandeep Sukhchan Balkar Bikramjit Binder Jodha Dilbag Vijay Vicky Baldev Jaideep Resham Ranjit Jagtar Kuldeep Harpreet Neeta jinder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Yadh- Sukh- Parem Ranjeet Arwinder Sartaj Gobinda Manjit Gurdev Sohan Hardev Sarmail Sonu Gurpreet Harpal Surjit Jasbir Gurdev Sajjan Avtar Jobandeep Gurpreet Kuldip Gurbej Gurlal winder Labh Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sukh- Jasbir Jiwan Bhola Balwinder Pargat Somraj Bikram- Kulwinder Harjinder Major Sawinder Gurpreet Sukhchan Gurwind- Mehal Mangal Hardev Kuldeep Sawinder Shlo Baljit Satta Talwinder Sonu Jaj Singh preet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Masih jeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Satnam Harjeet Inderjit Kuldeep Arjinder Ramesh Surinder Gurpreet Kirpal Amritpal Lovejeet Jaspal Parmind- Gurjant Gurpatap Jagdeep Sarwan Karaj Pawn Ajaypal Mangat Sharan- Savinder Heera Kuldeep Gurpreet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Mehar Hardev Kashmir Balwinder Gurwinder Shamsher Sukhraj Davinder Harjit Palwinder Jagwinder Sonu Sona Mantej Sharanjit Ranjit Kulbir Sonu Surjit Nishan Rajwinder Tarsem Mandeep Jaswant Amrik Lab Singh Nath Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gagan- Kartar Jaswant Dilbag Sharma Babba Subeg Paramjit Lovepreet Ravail Roshan Kawaljit deep Jagjit Singh Sukhdev Mangal Ranjit Harjinder Surjit Karnail Gursewak Rana Gurpreet Raja Kala Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Badasha Sunny Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gagan- Sukhdev Amarpal Ravinder Harpal Jaspal Dalwind- Shamsher Gurmeet Davinder Rajwinder Karaj Jaspreet deep Bikar Jagjit Raghbir Jiwan Lubha Mangal Partap Baaz Harcha- Malkit Nirmal Sonu Sarwan Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Balwinder Anil Mangal Jaspal Tarjinder Jaswant Jagjit Navneet Gurjant Pargat Sawarn Ravinder Bitu Singh Gurpreet Harpreet Prem Malkit Dharambir Amrik Hardeep Amrik Gurpal Yograj Sona Sarwan Rajwinder Singh Kumar Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Pargat Jaimal Baldev Ajay Dharmind- Angrej Yadwind- Swaran Ninder Sarwan Ajay Bhupin- Ranjit Gora Harpal Bikramjit Nirvail Gurtej Rashpal Kuldeep Harpreet Gurbhaj Gurjant Ranjit Mangal Sagar Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Gagan- Dheera Gurbaj Sandip Harpreet Major Lakha Sakttar Karaj Sukhdev Inder Harpal Ranjit Kuldeep Parveg Mandeep Malkeet Rinku Jagpreet Lavepreet Tarsem Surjit Jaspal Major Harpreet deep Ajay Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Jagir Nishan Ashu Mehal Lakhwind- Sandeep Surjit Amritpal Manjit Jarmanjit Jasbir Sukhdev Parmjit Jagjivan Rajinder Jaskaran Gurmeet Kuldeep Mangal Geja Manpreet Angrej Mandeep Jugraj Gurbhej Ram Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Sukh- Sukh- Mehak- Sukh- Roshan Kirpal Baaz Yodha Jaspal Kulwinder Kinder Manpreet Gurdev Randhir Heera Inderjit Satnam Karmjit Gurpreet Satnam Manpreet Lovepreet Davinder Mintu Rattan Manjit winder winder deep chain Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Dhara- Mehanga Gurnam Joban Ranjit Lovejeet Paramjit Gurlal Guljar Sahib Gurjant Palwinder Hardeep Shamsher Bhagwan Madan Amrik Malkeet Hardiyal Aman Onkar Harpreet Shamsher Sonu Sab Singh Soni mpreet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Gur- Saab Mandeep Gurdev Sahib Sucha Nishan Gurvail Bhupin- Sandip Avtar Veer Mahaveer Gurjit Sakkatar Gurpreet Rana Resham Ravail Ranjit Baljit Deepak Jagwinder Dilbag Sukhdev Malkit bakhsh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh der Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Aman- Kawaljit Harbhal Angrej Mangal Satnam Sukhwant Manpreet Ranjit Mejor Ajmer Angrej Sarabjit Lakh- Lakh- Akash- Gagan- preet Partap Gurdev Narvail Amrat Jatinder Sawinder Karamjit Raja Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh winder winder Sunny deep deep Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Dhira Sarbaji Sukhdev Prem Sukhbir Gurbir Gurmej Ajaypal Simarjit Nishan Harmesh Mustak Sukhdev Harkawal Gurprat- Ranjit Gurdeep Kuldeep Angrej Mangta Suba Gurwind- Balbir Davinder Sona Jagdish Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh ap Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Davinder Sukhdev Gurjant Ghulla Kuldip Gurpreet Kuldip Rashpal Rajpal Satnam Gurlal Sitar Malkeet Lakh- Gurpreet Rashpal Kashmir Kuldeep Sher Jagtar Sonu Jagraj Rashpal Dilbag Kuldeep Balwant Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Ravinder Gurdeep Lovepreet Manpreet Satnam Gurbhej Kulwinder Shamsher Tarsem Sultan Harjinder Kulwinder Jaj Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

102 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 103 Akash- Sukh- Balwinder Hardev Satwinder Harjinder Ram Sahib Davinder Yudhbir Harpal Nirvair Mahinder deep winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Lubhaya Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh MAJITH MANDI KIRANA ASSOCIATION TRADERS Singh Singh Sukh- Heera Jagtar Sukhdev Mangal Sukhjit Gurjant Sona Joban Ranjit Gurpreet Harjit Avtar A .B Trading Co. Grd. S.K.Vipan Kumar Brijesh Enterprises J.R.Traders ' Bg.Jhs. Mohit Enterprises Sham Sundar Banwari winder Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Mkt.Asr. Prtp.G. Mm. Asr Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. N.M.G. Kndh, Mm. Asr Lal Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Singh

Jaspal Gurpreet Surjit Pitar Vishal Sarbjit Kuldeep Major Jaideep Harnek Gurpreet Jagbir Harpreet Aditya & Company S.Kumar Traders Bz. B.R.Arora & Co.Mm. J.Rahul Traders Mm. Mohar Singh Swarn Sharma Agency Rdhk. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Mm. Asr. Guj. Mm.Asr. Asr. Asr. Singh Mm. Asr. Mt. Mm. Asr. A.G. Exports Sohan Lala Sons B.S.Corporation Mm. J.Subhash T.Co. Moti Lal Sachin Kumar Sheetal Trading Co. Kaka Ravail Sukhbir Sawinder Bagga Gurpreet Sukha Pachhora Manjit Jaspreet Jasbir Parmjit Amarjit Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Bawa B.G. Jhs. Mm. Asr . Bz.Guj.Mm.Asr Asr . Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr.

Sukh- Lakh- Aggarwal Trading Co. Sohan Singh Harjit B.V. Corporation Jugal Kishore Broker M.R.Tandon Kt. Hrs. Shiraj International Gurpreet Navteej Sukhdev Varinder Parmjit Harjinder Parmjit Sukhraj Sukhraj Kuldip Palwinder winder winder Mm. Asr . Singh Mm.Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr . G.Tlan W. Nm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Shiv Shaktt Trad- Lakh- Ajay Enterprises Bz. Subhash Chander & Chiman Lal & Sons. Jyoti Traders Nagpal Sales Corpora- Daler Mukand Lovepreet Resham Tarsem Harpal Jitender Sawinder Ranjit Kulwant Daya Mangal- ers(Abhishek) Grnk. winder Guj. Mm. Asr. Brothers Mm.Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Prtp.G. Mm. Asr. tion Bz. Nrsgh. D. Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jeet Singh Mt. Bz Guj W Asr. Singh Amar Nath Baldev Sunder Singh & Co. Gagan- Sukh- Chopra Tea Traders Kabul Trading Co. Narain Das Jugal Kishore Shiva Ditta Mal & Co. Kabal Gurjinder Jagpreet Tirath Harjinder Dilbag Jagmohan Gursahib Satnam Pargat Saran Bz. Gndw. Mm. Mm.Asr deep winder Jaj Singh Dgl.Mt.Kt.Awla .Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Bz .Guj. Mm.Asr . Mm.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Asr. Singh Singh Sunder Singh Jasbir Lakh- Kahan Chand Arun Nishan Karanbir Harpal Lovepreet Nirvail Kuldeep Hira Harpreet Jagroop Fuman Kulwant Joban Amir Chand Om Singh Chawla Brothers Shri Krishan Traders winder Kumar Narang Traders Mm.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Prakash Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. Singh Mhwr.Mt.Bznrsgh. Asr. Dhar- Lakh- Gurpreet Satnam Darshan Harbhej Satnam Dilbag Malkit Varinder Lovepreet Harpreet Gurwind- Sudarshan Kumar Chuni Lal Jagdish Kahan Chand Rohit minder winder Amit Trading Com. Bg. Naresh Kumar Puri Shri Chatanaya Over- Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Surunder Kumar Mm. Kumar Kumar G.Gvdn..Mm. Singh Singh Jhs. Mm. Asr . (Broker ) Bz. Bgtwla.Asr. seas Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Asr. Mm. Asr. Asr. Har- Gurcha- Satnam Harpal Mangal Nirvail Saroja Jagdish Malkeet Lovepreet Dilbag Sandeep Sawinder Shri Radhey mandeep Amritsar Haldi Sales Suman Trading Corp. Das Mal Om Prakash Kalu Mal Moti Ram Narinder Balwinder & ran Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Enterprises (Rajan) Singh Corp. Gbb. Btr. Asr. Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr . Mm.Asr. Co. Prtp. G. Lllm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. Harjinder Major Sukhdev Satnam Captain Surinder- Marak Chamkor Kuldeep Parmjeet Harwind- Balbir Harpreet Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh pal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Aman Overseas Bz. Sunil Kumar & Brother Das & Co. Kalu Mal Sukhdev Raj Narinder Kumar Gupta Shri Nath Ji Enterpris- Guj. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Gndwl.Mm.Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr & Co. Mm.Asr. es Dhb. Wst. R. Asr. Baldev Satnam Sukhraj Major Manpreet Harpal Sukhdev Avtar Jagdeep Sandeep Manbir Gurwant Gurdip Kalyan Singh Mohan Amrit General Stor E Sunil Traders Bg. Jhs. Deepak Bawa & Co. Narinder Pal Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Lal Shankar & Co. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr . Mm. Asr . Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr . ( Broker ) Mm. Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Prabhjit Sonu Heera Gurpreet Punjab Baldev Shamsher Kuldeep Gurjant Harpreet Jagtar Palwinder Malkit Sunil Vermani Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Sing Singh Singh Kamal Traders Amar Nath Nano Lal ( Broker ) Devi Dayal & Sons. Naval Kishhore & Sikka Brothers Gnk Mkt.Bz Guj. Sajan- Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. G. Jesa. S. Cwk. Moni. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Brothers Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Jaswant Shobhdi- Gurcha- Lakhwind- Jarnail Gurbhej Ranjit Baldev Rajwinder Sunny Remesh Mm.Asr Bitu Singh preet Asr. Singh ta Singh ran Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Surinder Kumar Satish Devki & Company Kamboj Spices Simran Traders Anup Kumar (Broker) Naval Kishore ( Broker ) Akash- Kumar Bz. Guj. Mm. Mm.Asr Gnk. Mt. Bz Guj. Mm. G. Gvdn.Mm.Asr Davinder Jaspal Harjinder Pargat Jagpreet Gurpreet Deepak Roshan Roman Sona Satnam Rajinder Mm. Asr . Bz.Bgtwla . Asr. deep Asr. Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Dharam Pal Anil Anuradha Trading Co. Kanaya Lal Broker K-3 Navdurga Trading Co. Sindhi Dry Fruit S.V.Traders Mm.Asr Kumar Jagit Tega Jasbir Satnam Rajwinder Gurdev Jagtar Gurpreet Jaspal Rajinder Harpal Nirvail Lakhbir Mm. Asr . Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj.Mm. Asr. Corner Mm.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Mm. Asr . Kapil Traders A.P. Enterprises Nwa. Swastik Enterprises Dhari Ram Tek Chand Sita Ram Anand Loha. Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Naveen Bhatia Mm. Asr. Buta Mandeep Sanga Gursewak Darshan Bachiter Partap Rashpal Sajan Kuldeep Inderjeet Charanjit Anoop Ktr. Om. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr . M.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh

Karan- Hard- Arora Enterprises Teneja Hardware Dharam Pal & Co. Kapoor Brothers Navyug Enterprises S.K.Behl & Sons. Darinder Nirmal Ranjit Harjinder Mejar Gursewak Gurdev Lakhbir Rinkall Nishan Inderjeet deep winder Grom. Mm.Asr. G. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Prtp.G. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Mm.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Tarun Kumar Chetan Dharam Pal Aggarwal Karam Chand Skattar Arora Overseas Bz. Navrattan Spices Pvt. S.K.Rajinder Kumar Agayapal Kulwinder Mithu Tejbir Jagmohan Kammo Gurwind- Sahib Ranjodh Sukhjit Jasbir Sukhdev Kumar Am. Bhvn, & Sons Lal Jaj Singh Guj. Mm.Asr. Ltd. Dal. M.Asr. Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Mm. Asr. Dal. M. Asr. Dal. Mm. Asr . Dilwari Exports Corpo- S.K.Varinder Kumar Lakh- Akash- Arora Traders Mm. The Amritsar Grinder Kashmir Drug House Jagpreet Resham Gurwind- Gursharan Kuljit Subeg Mangal Gurmit Sukhdev Rajwinder Happy rations N.D Malhotra Mm. Asr . Mhwr. Mt. Bz. Nrsgh. winder deep Asr . Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. Singh Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Mm. Asr . Asr. Masih Singh Kasturi Lal Ashwani Lakh- Aryaans Herbs Mm. Tondon Enterprises Dinesh Trading Co. Neelu Traders Prtp.G. Sham Das Manish Ku- Baljit Roshan Sharanjit Buta Sahib Harjinder Mota Pritam Gurjant Jaswant Gurpreet Jasbir Kumar winder Asr . Kt. Hrs. Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. mar Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Bghs. Nvrg. Mm. Asr. Singh A .S Enterprises S.Jaspal Singh Bg. Jhs. Dittu Mal Jagan Nath Kay Bee & Company Neeraj Dheeraj & Co. Sham Sunder & Co. Rajinder Darmind- Jaspreet Kuldeep Jaswant Joginder Kuldeep Harpal Mandeep Surinder Pinder Roshan Gopal Mm.Asr Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Gs.Bwn. Bty. Ave. Asr. Mm. Asr . Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. Singh er Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Tulsi Das Goverdhan K.B. Enterprises Ashadeep Trading Co. D.M Desa Singh Mm. Nimish International Sham Sunder & Sons. Sarabjit Manpreet Khajan Gurbir Khajan Gurdeep Arshdeep Kashmir Lawaljit Harbha- Sukhhpal Balwinder Harpreet Das L Nrng. Mt. Mm.Asr. Near Boi. Mm. Asr. Asr. Bg. Jhs. Asr. Mm.Asr. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh jan Singh Singh Singh Singh G. Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Raman- Ashish Traders Mm. Tulsi Das Kishan Lal Dwarka Das Narang & K.C.Gulzari Lal Nitish Enterprises Bg. Raman & Company Ajay Savinder William Balwinder Virsa Daler Gurjit Kulbir Majar Kartar Gursewak Kuldip deep Singh Singh Masih Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Asr. Mm.Asr. Co. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Singh As Hok Karyana Sukh- Vadhik Chand & Sons East India Trading Co. K.C.Ravinder Kumar () Nitish Kumar Aneja Bg. Raman Kumar & Sons. Harpreet Tarsem Lovepreet Gurvel Baljit Harpreet Bachitar Sahib Santokh Sajan Nishan Sher Bhandhar Mhwr. Mt. jinder Mm. Asr. Nw.Sbm.Wla .Asr Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr . Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Bz. Nrsgh. Asr. Sukh- Raman Kumar Pawan Harpreet Harmesh Sarabjit Balraj Baldev Dalbir Sukhdeep Sonu Vikramjit Amarjit Harpal Ranjit Ashok Kumar Mm. Vashno Das Broker Eastman International K.Gourav Kumar Om Parkash & Brothers chain Kumar G.Gvdn. Mm. Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Singh Bawa Singh Singh Asr. Prtp. G. Mm.Asr . Rdk.Bwn.G .Prtp. Asr. Grd. Mkt.Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Singh Asr Ramesh Kumar Prem Ashok Kumar Mohan Vigky Bhatia Dry Fruit Kimti Lal & Company Om Parkash Arun Ku- Source: Direct Interactions with Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC), ICP Attari Etin Impex Mm. Asr. Kumar Bg. Jhs. Mm. Lal Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr G.Gnd. Wl. Mm. Asr. mar Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Asr.

104 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses 105 Ashok Kumar Naresh Vicky Mehta ( Broker ) Kishan Chand & Bros. Manish Kumar Pur! ( Fairways Trading Co. Om Parkash Rohit Ku- Ravi Tradtng Co.(Ggn) Sadhu Ram & Sons. Rishi Internationa L Harbans Singh & Bros. Raj Kumar Ashish Sanjay Traders ( Bw ) Kumar G.Attr.Sg. Mm. G. Tlan. W. Nm.Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr Broker ) Bz. Bgtwla. Mm. Asr . mar Prtp. G. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr . Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr . Kumar Mm. Asr. Kt. Hrs. Mm. Asr. Asr. Asr. Vijay Kumar Dogra ( Brij Lal Ramesh Kumar Rajat Trading Co. R.K.Hari Sharn Hardeep Singh ( Bro- Manmeet Trading Co. Sanjay Trading Co. Ashoka Trading Co. Broker ) F.T.C. Overseas Mm. Kishan Chand & Sons. Pankaj Enterprises R.Gopal Impex Pvt.Ltd. Mm. Asr. Cwk. Chtprni. Mnd. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. ker ) Grd. Mkt.Asr. Mm.Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. G. Drbr. S. Kubi Beri. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Gnk.Mt. Mm. Asr. Es’r. Internationaltraders R.K.Sandeep Kumar Hardit Singh Kirpal Manohar Lal Gupta Rajesh International Sanjeev Enterprises Kishan Chand Ashok R.G.International Ashu Kaua (Broker) Vikas Tradtng Co. Ganpat Ram Vishwa Pankaj Kumar Puri ( Bro- Mm. Asr . G.Gvdn. Mm.Asr. Singh Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Kumar G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Qla.Bujin. Kb. Asr. Mm.Asr. Mittter Mm. Asr . ker ) Bz. Bgtwla. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Sanjeev Kumar Bobby Trading Co. Manoj Aggarwal Ashwani Kumar Gu- Kishan Chand Suman R.K Arom & Sons Hari Ram Amar Nath Rajnesh Goyal Bz. Guj. (Broker) Vikram Enterprises Ghanshann Das Mo- Pankaj Purl ( Broker ) Mhvr.M. Bz.Guj. Mm. (Broker) Swk. Mdi. latl(Broker) G.Munsh. Kumar R.G Overseas Mm. Asr. Ch.Mls. Mm.Asr. G.Attr.Sg.Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. G. Drbr. S. Kubi Beri. Dhb. Wst. R. Asr han Lal Mm. Asr. Jgdba. C. Mj. R.Asr. Asr. M.M. Asr Bgtwla. Asr . Mm. Asr Asr. Kishan Chand Vaishno Sanjeev Kumar ( Avinash Traders Vikram Traders Swnk Gian Chand Ram R.H.& Company Dal. Rajinder Kumar Rajesh Das Pankaj Traders Mm.Asr: Milap Sales Corpora- Hari Ram Ram Chand Manmohan Rai & Sons Broker ) Bz.Gndw. Mm. Asr. . M. Asr. Gopal Mm.Asr. M. Asr. Rm.Traders Mm.Asr. Kumar G.Attr. Sg.Mm. Prtp. G. Mm. Asr. tion Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Loha.M. Asr. Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr. G. Drbr. S. Kubi Beri. Asr. Girdhari Lal Ramesh Asr. Avtar Singh & Bros. Vikrant Traders Kishore & Company Rishab Enterprises Kumar Bz.Guj. Paramjit Soni Mm. Asr. Manoher Singh Avtar Rakesh Kumar Anil Saran Singh Gajinder Mm. Asr . Mm. Asr. Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Rdk. Bhwn. Mm. Asr. Bobby Traders Mm. Roop Lal Puran Chand Hari Singh Sant Singh Mm.Asr. Singh Bz. Guj. Mm. Kumar Jain Prtp. G. Singh Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr Mm.Asr Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Ayush Gupta & Asr. Mm.Asr. Asr. Vishal Enterprises Giriraj Enterprises Paras Ram Inderjit Bg. M.M.Trading Co. Bz. Company Am.Bhvn. K K. Traders Mm. Asr. Rakesh Kumar Kabali Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. Jhs. Mm. Asr. Guj. Mm.Asr. Ram Sharan & Sons. Rs.Kamal Kishore Bg. Hari Singh Sant Singh Manoj Enterprises Saran Singh Juneja Bz. Mm. Asr. (Broker) Kt. Chrt. S. Asr. Jhs.Asr. & Co. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Guj. Mm. Asr. K.L.Mehta & Sons. Bz Borian. Lohri G. Asr. Bal Kishan Raj Kumar Vishal Kumar Broker Goyal Brothers Bz.Guj. Paras Ram Tara Chand M. Madan Lal & Co. K· Bz. Whn. Wl. Asr . Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. B.N.Traders Bg.Jhs . Harish Kumar ( Broker Manu Khurana ( Ram Kishan Vijay Kumar Sardari Lal Satish Ku- R.S. Traders Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. ) Bz.Gndw. Mm. Asr. Broker ) Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. mar Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Vishal Mehra (Broker) Gopal Das & Sons. Bal Kishan & Sons Kohli Brothers Parma Nano Arora Mohan Lal & Sons. H.S. Manohar Singh Heena International Mm. Asr. (Mm) R.S. Rice Mills Tt.Rd. Mathur.A Das Amolak Ram Murti & Bros. Sareen Di Hatti Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. & Co. Mhvr.M. Bz.Fuj. Mm. G.Attr.Sg.Mm. Asr. Off. Mm.Asr. Ram Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Bankey Behari Kt.Hrs. Mm. Asr Asr. Vishal Trading Co. Gopal Das Ashok Krishna Enterprises Parminder Singh Broker Mohan Lal Dharam Herbotech Pharma- Sachdev Rameshwar Das Ban- Mm. Asr. Kumar Mm. Asr . Pvfn.Bld. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Pal Msri. Bz. Asr. H.S.Randeep Singh R.T. Trading Co. Grd. ceticals M.B.Pharma Prtp. G. Sat Pal Arun Kumar Mm. Asr wari Lal Cwk. Mlah. S. Bansal Sales Krishna Enterprises Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Mkt.Asr . V.P.0 Pndri Wrch. Mm. Asr. Bg.Jhs. It’im. Asr. V.K. Ravinder Kumar Gopal Dass Kirti Par- Pawan Kumar Arora ( Mohan Lal Rajiv Ku- Mm. Asr. Rdk.Bvn.Prtp.G. Mm. (Bz Gujran) Bz. Guj. Mm.Asr. Prtp. G. Mm. Asr. kash Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr Broker ) Shkt. Ngr.Asr. mar Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr . H.S.Sohan Singh Asr. Mm. Asr. Rubby Enterprises Bz. H.K.Tmders Bz.Gndw. M.Devi Son Overseas Rashit Enterprises Bz. Bishan Das Ravin Ku- Krishna Trading Co. Mm. Asr. Bawa Drug House Ati Enterprises 83 Gopal Dass Kirti Par- Prem Lal Harish Kumar Satguru Enterprises Guj. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. Swnk. Mm. Asr. Guj. Mm. Asr. mar Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr Mm. Asr. Gug. Mm. Asr. kash Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr & Co. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. H.S.Herbs. Ram Kumar & Co. Bishan Das Kanshi Mehra Drug House Ram Rakha Mal Jugal Mehra Brothers Mm. Jagdish Kumar Ra’iv Goverdhan Das Giriraj Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. G. Tlan. W. Nm. Asr. Ram Bz.Gndw. Mm. Bawa Enterprises K.S.Tejinder Singh Prem Kumar Upal & Satija Enterprises Nvrg. Mt. Mm. Asr. Kishore Mm. Asr. ‘ Asr. Kutar Saran Udo.Rm.Bld Asr. Bz.Guj. Mm: Asr. Nk.Dal. Mm. Asr Sons. Loha.M.Mm. Asr . Mshri. Bz. Asr. Mehra Export B.K International Ram Kumar Dhami ( Mm. Asr. Mm Asr, B.K Sandeep Kumar Ram Lal Mool Chand B.K International Krtr. Jagtar Singh Arjun Giverdhan Traders P.G International Corporation Bz. Whn. O/P Hrbns.Hl. Mm.Asr. Broker ) Burt. Ngr. Btla. Behari Lal Krishan Ku- Kumar Traders Satkartar Dry Fruits Mm. Asr. Cwk. Fulan. W. Asr. Ngr. Chrta . Asr. Singh G.Gvdn.Mm.Asr Crlr Rd.Opp Bsnt Ave. Wl. Asr. Rd. Asr. mar Db.Wt.Rm. Asr. Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Asr, Mehra Trading Co. Jai Gopal Iuakheeja Goyal Subhash & K V Sandeep Kumar Behari Lal Sunil Kumar P.L.Trading Co. Seema Traders Bg. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. & Sons. Sons. Nrml. M. Tund. Tla. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Jhs.Mm. Asr. G.Attr.Sg. Mm. Asr. Bz.Guj .Mm.Asr Asr. Source: Direct Interactions with Association Members in Majith Mandi, Amritsar Bhagwati Charan Jai Shree Ram Tmders G,R Traders Lakhu Mal Amarnath Pritam Das Vijey Kumar Sewa Ram Jagdish Khurana & Co. Bz.Guj. Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn .Mm.Asr G.Gvdn. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. Chander Kt. Hrs. Asr. Mm. Asr Bhagwati Dry Fruit Lal Chand Mohkam Jai Singh Traders Grovers Traders Pritam Singh & Co. Inder Kumar Tondon Center Bzgndw. Mm. Chand Bz. Gndw. Prtp.G. Mm. Asr. Bz. Gndw.Mm.Asr F Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. CUSTOMS BROKERS AMRITSAR Asr Mm. Asr. Laxmi Narain Naresh Pritpal Singh Gurbax Ishan Enterprises Bhajan Lal & Sons. Jai Singh Kulbir Singh Gulati Di Hatti Bz.Guj. M/S.Vikas Rai & Co. Kumar Bg. Jhs. Mm. Singh Dal.M. Asr. Bg.Jhs . Mm. Asr. Bz. Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm. Asr. (Customs House Asr F Swnk. M. Asr. M/S International M/S. R.K.Khanna & Co., M/S R.B.Ram Nath M/S Quick Carriers M/S. Kishore Interna- Agent Licence No. Bhola Nath Brij Lal In. International Clearing Agency Post Room No. 3, Khanna Janak Raj & Company Gupta Brothers Longani Brothers P.S.Rattan Hari Dal. Lambah & Sons Majith 552n L-3, Majith tional Lawrence Road, 01/M-Ii/2011) 308, Bhatia Bz.Guj. Mm. Bz.Guj. Asr. Office, Majith Man- Market, Bazar Wahian Mm.Asr. Bz.Guj. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. M.Asr. Mandi, Amritsar Mandi,Amritsar Amritsar I St Floor, Ganpati Asr . di,Amritsar Wala Amritsar Towers,Lawrence Gurditta Mal Par- Logani International Puran Chand Jagdish Jagan Nath & Sons Bhupinder Kumar . Janki Das Satish Road,Amritsar shotam Das Bz.Nrsgh Trad. Swank. M. Mm. Mittal Mm. Asr. {Broker) Mm. Asr. Kumar Mm. Asr. .D. Mm. Asr. Asr. Prtp. G. Mm. Asr . Radhey Gobind Trading Jagan Nath Aggarwal M/S Puri Brothers M/S. Intercontinental M/S. K.L.Gupta Bishan Das & Co. Guraj Chetical Works Maa Santoshi Traders M/S Supreme Freight M/S Qimati Lal Sharma Jay Sai Impex Mm.Asr Co. & Co. S2211093, Ist Floor, Carriers Post Office, Consultants Pvt. Ltd M/S. J.S.Exim 206, Bas- Bg.Jhs. Mm.Asr . Bzguj. Mil. Asr Trl. Mt. Mm. Asr. Forwarders Majith Katra Hari Singh, Mm. Asr Mm.Asr. Majith Mandi, 52, Akali Market, 25 Mahindra Colony, ant Avenue, Amritsar Mandi , Amritsar Amritsar Maohu Ram Mohan Radhey Sales Corpo- Jagan Nath Chaman Ial Amritsar Amritsar Court Road, Amritsar Brij Mohan & Sons Jetha Nano Jai Kishan Gurpreet Singh & Lal ration Mm. Asr Nrml.M.Tund.Tla. Asr. Dass Mm. Asr. Brothers · Mm. Asr. Bg. Jhs. Mm.Asr. Mm. Asr. M/S. Gaurang Logistics M/S. Sabharwal & M/S Jogindera Com- M/S Kay Ess Internation- M/S. Amritsar Clearing R.V. Trading Co. J.H.B.Enterprises Guru Nanak Traders Malhotra & Co. Bz. Radhu Mal Mohan Lal Jagan Nath Drugs M/S Avtar Singh & Co. Private Limited 489/Vl- Sons Majith Mandi, pany 57, Hide Market, al 211d Floor, 52 Akali Agency Hide Market, Nrml. M. Tund.Tla.Asr. Mm.Asr. Bzguj. Mm. Asr Guj. Mm. Asr. Mshri. Bz. Asr. Prtp.G. Mm. Asr. Aka I Market, Amritsar 3, Bazar Gujran Majith Amritsar Amritsar Market, Amritsar Amritsar Gurwinder Singh & Raghav Traders Jagan Nath Janaki Das Mandi, Amritsar Sagar Enterprises Joginder Nath Behl & Malik Narain Das & Company Nw.Sm. Rdk. Bwn.G. Prp.Asr. Bzguj. Mm. Asr Mm. Asr. Sons. Kt.Hrs. Mm. Asr Sons. Bzguj. Mm. Asr. Wla.Asr. M/S Vinod Brothers M/S Vijay Kumar Sarb- M/S. Neeraj Kumar & Jagdish Chander 10-A Mcleod Road, harwal Majith Mandi, Co. 571/ Vi-3, Majth Sai Das Ravi Mohan J.P.&Co.(Dr.)Broker Handatraders Bg.Jhs. Mangal Singh Harbans Rahul Trading Company Sharma Am.Bhvn, Mm.Asr. S.S.Mkt.Bz.Guj.Mm Asr Mm. Asr. Singh Mm. Asr. Prtp. G. Mm. Asr. Amritsar Amritsar Mandi, Amritsar M.M.Asr Saligram Maheshwari Mangat Ram Bhandari Jagdish Kumar Inder Rishab Overseas Happy Enterprises Raj Kumar Ajay Kumar Source: Direct Interactions with Ram Nath Lambah and Sons, Majith Mandi, Amritsar & Sons. & Sons. Bg.Jhs. Kutar Bg.Jhs.Mm.Asr. Bg.Jhs. Mm. Asr. Bg. Jhs. Mm. Asr. G.Gvdn. Mm. Asr. Mm.Asr. Mm.Asr

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UNILATERAL DECISIONS BILATERAL LOSSES Since February 2019, India-Pakistan relations have been sliding downhill. Escalating tensions between India and German Statesman Otto Von Bismark once remarked "the road to Berlin lies through Vienna." BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF I sincerely feel that the road between New Delhi and Islamabad lies through Punjab. For Punjabis, a Pakistan led their governments lot is at stake given their proximity to the shared border. Trade at Wagah-Attari had made this shared to take successive unilateral border a point of cooperation and interdependence. Highlighting the losses on ground because of decisions - impact trickling the suspension of trade, this book makes it evident how over time, trade has become crucial for the down to the trade communities survival of the border economies, revival of which could lead not just to prosperity but also lay the in both the countries. foundation for peaceful relations between India and Pakistan. International trade as a subject, Manpreet Singh Badal, Finance Minister, Punjab, India for policy making as well as research, is generally focused on, from a macro level. This book is an attempt to understand trade at a micro level in terms of the dependence of border India-Pakistan relations are said to be “accident prone”, and subject to sudden and unexpected swings economies on cross-border towards renewed engagement or reinforced estrangement. This study by Afaq and Nikita has drawn trade. This has been done by attention to some of the micro level impact of broader policy decisions, in this instance focussing on UNILATERAL DECISIONS assessing the socio-economic trade related restrictions imposed in February 2019. While the larger decisions have their own logic, the impact of trade suspension, local level impact on people and business certainly needs attention for mitigation, if people are to be through field research in Punjab, enthused to get involved again if and when the upswing phase returns. BILATERAL LOSSES and Jammu and Kashmir. As the Arun K Singh, Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, France and Israel trade communities, and the Afaq Hussain Nikita Singla citizens at large, stand by the decisions of the government, it is crucial to identify adequate measures that could be taken towards sustaining the people Having served in Jammu and Kashmir for decades, I have witnessed from the closest possible realm and the border economies, in how interwined politics and economics are for border economies. While this book focuses on two most the absence of cross-border politically fractious neighbors, I compliment the authors for successfully restricting their research on the

Afaq Hussain trade. socio-economic ripples created in the border economies due to suspension of trade. The findings of the research make a compelling argument to start looking at trade from the lens of livelihoods. Mohammed Saqib Lt. Gen Satish Dua, a former Corps Commander in Kashmir, who retired as Chief of Integrated Defence Staff CEO, BRIEF Nikita Singla

BEMPOWERINGRI EGROWTHF Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF) www.briefindia.com

112 Unilateral Decisions Bilateral Losses